Posts archive for: 5 June, 2009
  • 5 June 2009 - Ian Gibson resigns to force a by-election

    This just in. Ian Gibson has resigned to force a by-election in Norwich North. Mind you, the people who are resigning on the whole lack the authority because of the expenses scandal to really challenge the PM's authority, and looking back, Labour are exactly in the same position as the Tories were in 2004 after those local elections - down but not out. A very similar result is shown - Tories 37%, LibDem 27% and Labour 26% has been translated into Tories 38%, LibDem 28% and Labour 23%. The Tory gain of ~+250 seats has not eclipsed the Tory gain of +283. So the by-election could well be anyone's guess.

    Quickie reading as a prediction:

    Labour - Wheel of Fortune

    Something happens to elevate their prospects rather than denigrate them; or at least the result is not as fixed as some people would wish it was.

    Conservatives - VIII Pentacles, reversed

    Again, not the omens Cameron might have wished for here as the card of hard work and building blocks on the road to ultimate success overturns and undoes a lot of hard work. If this is going to be a re-run of 2004 (at the very least - funny how Gemini elections work as opposed to Taurean ones), then the main challenge from the Tories will have been damaged rather than enhanced by these elections.

    Liberal Democrats - The Hierophant

    A chance to make a surprise gain if they keep honest and rational about their chances. A good strong campaign with realistic expectations, but better chances than the Tories above, interestingly enough.

    Result overall - III Pentacles, reversed

    This undoes the foundations of the system - it's not a surprise result so much as one which begins to loosen and shake things up as opposed to cement and build them towards the general election.

    A general assumption about this: Labour will probably prolong this writ as long as necessary - just as the Tories did not move the writ for Henley until after their Nantwich victory, suggesting to me that there was and is more insecurity in their ranks than they dare show - and may well hold it on the same day as the contest in the former Speaker's seat too.

  • 5 June 2009 - I got it...well, almost.


    I'm sorry. I couldn't hold out any longer.

    I didn't look at the election results until now, I was too scared/excited/frustrated/whatever, but it looks like I got something right. I needed to bite the bullet before going in to work tomorrow (it's impossible to work as a newsagent without having to read the newspapers) but this will sugar the pill somewhat.

    The Tories on 30%+ rather than 40%+. I divined 36% simply by getting Deep Zeke to try and force himself through my mind's difficult filter and they got 38%, less than they need to win the election. Michael Howard got similar in the local elections a year before the 2005 election, and Foxy still has almost as much as his predecessor to make up in terms of seats, something that to my mind has always militated against an outright Tory win in 2009-2010 for me, though of course my guides and especially Owlperson - whose future career hinges on his psychic ability to surf the waves of fortune rather than be dragged under - have ideas up their sleeves about that) and allowing Labour to squeeze through the gap rather than be annihilated.

    My friend from Twitter, Robert Currey (@robertcurrey) has some interesting ideas about political astrology; I may ask him to write for the blog in exchange for free advertising here (if he would be willing to do this). I'm going to push the boat out and report the gist of his findings; and say neither Brown nor Cameron can resist Pluto's negative influence on the political scene. If it comes from my lips that Cameron may find himself in leadership hot water fairly soon (particularly if Sunday is catastrophic for all main parties) then I will also say that so will Brown, since in my Loki v Heimdall scenario both equally matched Norse heroes. Interestingly, two years ago when I first made the connections between Brown/Heimdall and Cameron/Loki, the "official" internet versions (Wikipedia and Encyclopaedia Mythica) have changed their tunes from "Loki kills Heimdall and dies of his own wounds" to "Loki fights [Heimdall], and the two kill one another."

    Some mini spreads just to check the direction of things towards our own Ragnarok. Owlperson will assist (since this evening I have heard his voice clearer rather than just "thinking" what he is saying to me.

    BROWN

    Situation - X Pentacles

    OP: Brown could not actually have hoped for a better result and without editorialising too much as a member of the opposition I can actually say it doesn't surprise me that he is looking a lot more solid than he did two or three days ago. With the three resignations most of the troublemakers have gone, and the two women escapees have largely burned their own boats by being caught with their hands in the till. Like Blair at this point in 2004 he is actually stronger rather than weaker for this set of elections, and it doesn't look as if the European elections will change much on Sunday/Monday.

    Questions - IX Wands, reversed

    OP: There is still danger from outside but perhaps this is also indicative of the stockade coming down and a new dynamic coming through; but Brown has to watch his back nevertheless since a surprise rush from his backbenches is still possible if he lets his guard down too much. The question for me is now if rather than when, as Brown has had more lucky escapes than Houdini, but he needs to keep watch against it.

    Answers - The Devil

    OP: Sadly it may still be possible to winkle him out, though with the Tories substantially down on the % needed for a clean sweep at an election, the currrents inherent in Mr Currey's Plutonian forecast may yet bring him down. He will go down fighting, thanks to the difficulties for the Opposition with this result, but nevertheless the explosive maelstrom still swirling around Westminster may conspire to destroy rather than rebuild.

    Direction - Knight of Wands

    OP: Brown still has some power of control over his party, backbenches and ministerial team; though much diminished from the all-powerful King, and in the area of Wands (which tend to govern events when reading for politics rather than the main policy agenda), he can still push out the boundaries looking for ways in which to promote his own agenda rather than succumb to others'. However in doing so I believe this suggests he is going to provoke more than he bargained for, particularly with this card in proximity to the Devil above. The situation is not strengthened by these results any more than Brown could control the toxic waste spewed forth from the Telegraph over the past month.

    Advice - The Moon

    OP: Brown needs to keep his cards close to his chest and not reveal his hand until he is ready either to go to the country (and that looks less likely than it did a week ago, thanks to the 38-per-centers) or needs to put a manifesto in place. He is apparently considering a draft "mini-manifesto", according to Nick Robinson, but is equally unlikely to let his critics see his weak spots again. Last year he managed to survive a torrid summer - now he only has to survive a summer in which the Tories are equally fearful about the way forward as their support retreats from its high water mark last year.

    Outcome - V Cups

    OP: I get the feeling that this card means that although Labour are disappointed, they are not devastated. The summer will be dangerous for everyone, so there is a silver lining (as the Independent was the only one to point out yesterday). Labour will succeed if they can see the benefits of staying together rather than disuniting. Brown has already moved to elevate a senior and respected figure to the Lords to replace Caroline Flint - Baroness Kinnock is not as attractive as Ms Flint but is probably more weighty and influential a figure. I don't think this is the end for Labour - just as this time last year it was not the end for Blair. The Tories need to do much better here - I think for reasons of loyalty I might have to hand over their reading to Clarence before Mr Fox reads my true opinions of him underneath.

    CAMERON

    Situation - The Hermit, reversed

    Clarence: Thanks, Owlie. This card is bad because Cameron does not have the intuition or insight needed to go forward or mend his direction. All he sees is the +217 gains and clean sweep of councils - he does not see the haemmorhage of vote that will not allow him anything more than a narrow defeat at any potential election. The difficulties of not having this insight is that with it, he would begin to do a lot more work and put a lot more content into his spin. He might live regret the wins here. A dangerous start.

    Questions - Queen of Wands

    C: Cameron has been merely responding and reacting to events so far during his leadership rather than trying to substantiate himself and build a rounded persona capable of governing the country. He deals in magical manoeuvres which bring short term gain, but not getting the 40% he needed here to carry the general election without a fight, he is needing to answer this Queen with a lot more weight and gravitas than previously shown.

    Answers - II Cups

    C: The way to do this seems to be to meet the party half-way and build a stronger structure on the foundations he has laid. The party must stand for something, and there must be internal accord with it. Although there is much still possible, he has to get by now on action and substance rather than waiting for Brown to fail catastrophically. Back from the brink, Brown still poses a genuine challenge. This challenge must be met head on, like-for-like, rather than ducked and avoided on the way to an ivory tower.

    Direction - The Star

    C: There is hope in this situation because more councils have been taken in the north; however again there must be a solid basis built for this hope and this is where Cameron might yet fail. Man cannot live on hope alone.

    Advice - The Lovers

    C: Cameron must begin to form a genuine solution to Labour, rather than continue to rattle on with his spin and dismissive solutions to major problems. The depth in this card is the depths to which Cambo must go to cement his party in the driving seat, rather than just win by default. 38% needs to be improved upon radically to win a proper majority.

    Outcome - Queen of Pentacles

    C: A time of administrating, and of managing something, but not wholly developing in the direction of something solid. The Queen is, as I remarked a while ago, a spin doctor, not a minister. Cameron must do better to generate real solidity because the 38% issue is that the election no longer looks guaranteed.

    Owlperson: Just a small comment. These cards have potential in them, but not fulfilment of this potential. As an elected and public Tory I don't want to say too much but if we are still talking about potential rather than fulfilment, both parties have an uncertain future - Brown with real problems, Foxy (yes, it is my name for him) without real flesh on our bones.

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