Parliament of Fowls

LabourList reports that Chris Ostrowski has been selected as their candidate in the marginal seat of Norwich North, vacant after Ian Gibson pulled the plug on himself over the expenses scandal and then resigned to cause problems for Gordon Brown - largely of his, and his fellow pilferers', making of course.

I can't find a date for the by-election yet, presumably the writ has not yet been moved. Owlperson says that he would make by-election writs be moved on the vacancy of the seat automatically for six weeks later - to avoid the parties punting difficult by-elections into the long term future, like Glenrothes last year.

So let's look at a tentative spread for what might happen here then. Wary of my inability to predict Glenrothes' result itself, I'm not going to say who might win, though no doubt the astrologers will be posting about it as it is a Labour-Tory English marginal, just as Nantwich and Crewe was but much more likely to go Tory as it was Conservative-held between 1983 and 1997.

LABOUR - incumbency

Goatnapper - Red - Goblin Rogue

Kith goats are just for practice. The real prize, of course, is a giant's cloudgoat.

This could refer to Gibson's stewardship of the seat, but it also suggests some irregularities, as if the seat was "stolen" last time; my articles on electoral reform give neither me nor Owlperson real hope that Norwich was immune to such tactics. So Gibson's tenure might have ended just at a time when the Tories were kosher enough not to be manipulated out - not to, to put it bluntly, have their votes chucked in the bin. The balance of the goblin shown clutching the goat in question is also balanced on a precipice already, showing that even if Gibson won legitimately, he still had a tenuous hold on the seat anyway. Therefore I would expect it to go Conservative at the by-election without too much trouble. Whether it will or not I'm not necessarily going to call.

LABOUR - candidate

Seedguide Ash - Green - Treefolk Druid

"May you shade three generations of seedlings."

I think Labour have chosen a good candidate here; someone with potential and someone with genuine ability to win the seat under good national circumstances. The gentle nature of the card's blessing suggests Ostrowski, even if he doesn't make it into Parliament, would be a good candidate for Labour to foster elsewhere at a general election.

LABOUR - prospects

Aquitect's Will - Blue - Tribal Sorcery - Merfolk

There is nowhere on Lorwyn that the Merrow Lanes cannot go.

I'm not going to come out for either party, but this is a positive, fluid card, which gives Ostrowski a decent chance at the seat, and a smooth and penetrating campaign which reaches far into the corners of the electorate. While the card is indeed blue, it looks a calm, peaceful campaign for Labour and is perhaps a better omen than I necessarily expected to draw.

CONSERVATIVES - history of the seat

Elven Fortress - Green - Enchantment

"The size of the obvious Fortress walls often misled foes. Actually, the Elves enchanted the forest itself to provide the first line of defense with tangling vines and stinging thorns." - Sarpadian Empires, vol III

The Tories regard the seat as an established base in Norfolk and would like to think that winning it would make victory more certain in 2009-2010, because it has in the past swung to their side during a governing period. The Tories believe, moreover, that it should be theirs by right, as Norfolk, along with a lot of southern, eastern England is quite naturally Conservative in outlook and thus Labour here are an aberration. A short-sighted image - the seat only went Tory in 1983 after a long Labour history - but an image that is arguably needed to muster the confidence required to win here.

CONSERVATIVES - candidate

Night Soil - Green - Enchantment

Some said killing the Thallids only encouraged them.

The general aura around this card for me is that the Tory candidate will be a lot less edifying a character than Ostrowski, and a lot more willing to fight dirty than Labour. Still a green card, so still room for potential, creeping like a fungus over the constituency. But a base card filled with the idea of human waste products and perhaps not the best image for a wannabe MP.

CONSERVATIVES - prospects

Scarred Vinebreeder - Black - Elf Shaman

For disfigured elves, there are few choices between death or nettlevine.

No comment. A black card, so at best a kind of pyrrhic victory. Some sort of companion to the idea of Night Soil, and with Labour's prospects side by side, I'm not sure the Tories will necessarily pull it off. I'm still reluctant to back Labour outright here, but for the moment it doesn't seem that the Tories really go about this campaign the right way and suffer as a result. That said, the creature here gains strength at the expense of someone else; but this strength is short-lived and expensive. So there is no virtue in the party's gain, if indeed it is a gain at all.

Fistful of Force - Green - Instant

This card of the day can be reasonably taken to refer to the Alan and Ann Keen chapter in the expenses scandal, which with the green border and "natural" motif suggests to me that the power in the people is stronger here than their rulers can imagine. The squatters have not won conclusively - I would imagine the Keens will launch a suit in defence of their property - but again here we see the people these MPs have abused striking back at their misappropriated property. Although the squatters may not have known what they were actually doing - their cause is not to highlight the expenses abuse, but campaign for a larger goal of no border-crossing restrictions (still relevant to us because we have not yet joined Schengen) - the "clash" mechanic on this card demonstrates that they have scored a larger victory than they thought they might because of the hot issue of expenses and their abuse.

Way to go, fellas.

The twists and turns of the expenses scandal continue. Alan and Ann Keen have now found out that squatters have moved in to their derelict "first house", which was allegedly being refurbished - while the Keens claim on their "second" home in Westminster.

I did begin a reading for the Keens during the week but I lost it when my computer decided to refresh the screen without warning. I will just pull a single card for this, as Owlie and Deep Throat suggest it is a mere sideshow rather than a rolling news topic. The Keens are apparently the Labour equivalent of Nicholas and Ann Winterton, but the article concentrates on the No Borders movement, and Owlperson remarks that although he is as a Conservative pro-immigration controls, he nevertheless is not sorry that the people involved have invoked their legal right to move in to the empty property and shafted two of the most audacious expenses claimaints at Westminster. Poetic justice.

Pulling a card for The Keens, we get Farrel's Zealot (White - Human Townsfolk): "Farrel, a former priest, believed Icatia was far too complacent towards the Order of the Ebon Hand". But our Farrel in this case has seen what goes around, comes around - the zealous claims on expenses have come back to haunt the couple and symbolise not only the largesse expended on frivolities but the power of the people to reclaim their property from greedy MPs.

For the squatters, I get Thallid (Green - Fungus), the iconic card which symbolises the encroachment of natural forces on those trying to hold them back; the active and wholly appropriate reclamation of follies by the people ruled from their discredited rulers.

For the future of the situation, I get Icatian Phalanx (White - Human Solider): "Even after the wall was breached in half a dozen places, the Phalanxes fought on, standing solidly against the onrushing raiders. Disciplined and dedicated, they held their ranks to the end, even in the face of tremendous losses." The Keens will assert their property rights on the squatters, though the card here suggests defence rather than offence. Looking at the image on the card, the youth and femininity of the soldiers does suggest to me, however, that the initiative lies with the young people involved in this situation - the squatters who are taking direct action - though apparently unaware of the wider British political issues involved; they sound like the descendants of the old Euro-communist movement, and have an international flavour - and their understanding of the law will prevail over those who are manipulating it for their own greed.