Parliament of Fowls

Nothing really to say on this – so on immediately with our latest reading for Vulpes Vulpes’ prospects over the summer. As I said, I don’t think Cameron has so far shown he has much strategic resources to be the Vodalian Mage – the surprise twist in the tail of this long hot Parliament. He may surprise me, but given that the VM needs the element of substance and surprise – and Foxy’s interventions have been at best wholly predictable and wholly superficial – I’m not 100% sure that he can be at all.

READING: DAVID CAMERON – PROGNOSIS OVER THE SUMMER

Situation

Moonglove Winnower – Black – Elf Rogue

Winnowers live to eliminate eyeblights, creatures the elves deem too ugly to exist.

This to me encapsulates Cameron’s whole period of leadership – the elimination of anything he personally deems doesn’t fit. While this can sometimes be a tactic and strategy that is necessary to bring together a disparate and divided coalition into an efficient machine capable of government, the element of black in Cameron’s first card suggests this is not actually what is right for this situation, nor does it bode well for the situation Cameron is in. If this card was white, I would say he was going the right way to unite the party, but his conception of unity is trying to destroy or persecute those that don’t fit and warping the concept of party discipline into something that drives his personal beliefs – ugly as they are – into a position for personal gain. The “Deathtouch” is still deadly, but for how much longer Cameron can act this way after the events of the spring depends largely on how long he can go without revealing any depth or substance of what he wants to do. His own business affairs were shaky in the run-up to the European elections, and his tactics now have not changed – he will say anything, do anything, pledge anything purely to gain a short-term advantage. I don’t believe this can sustain him in government and after the surprises of this spring I think Cameron is on the rampage – but losing the control needed to govern properly. Time will tell what happens but Black does often speak for itself.

Public Appearance

Fertile Ground – Green – Enchantment/Aura

Pretty, vulnerable, and delicious – a boggart [or goblin] thief’s trifecta.

The bloom and cornucopia on the card is belied by the flavour text – Cameron is still marginally on top but he is also vulnerable – as vulnerable as Brown – to events and predators. My overall belief is that this situation has no real victor currently in place; the events of the spring confirmed to me that both parties would suffer from what was to come if what Owlperson has been trying to tell me for two years or so would be able to come about. So here the public still seem fairly well-disposed to Foxy, with the caveat that he is also vulnerable from the threats lurking ahead during the summer and his success or failure is still dependent on the whims of a thirsty press and public.

Media appearance

Nameless Inversion – Black – Tribal Instant/Shapeshifter

Just as a changeling’s influence can have dramatic effects, so too can its sudden withdrawal.

This points to a waning in Foxy’s influence over the press as the judgements are made on expenses – Vulpes Vulpes initially profited from the scandal by being seen to do something about it, proposing some vapidly promising ways of diverting the public’s attention from his own affairs and those of his comrades, and trying to persuade people he was better equipped to deal with things after an immediate election. Then he crashed in the polls and failed to radically better Michael Howard’s results at the European elections. I haven’t seen many polls since then – trying to de-tox enough to get on with my own life – but I would imagine the media no longer sees him as their great white – or even reddish-brown – hope. The situation is in flux, and can change rapidly. And it’s another black card. All is not well in Foxy-land either, we just may not yet see it. What a surprise.

Inner reality – personal

Stonybrook Angler – Blue – Merfolk Wizard

“Water is in the air, the trees, and the earth. Understand its motion, speak its language, and the subtle currents that flow through all living things will fall under your command.”

Foxy is not stupid. He does know how to act, in the same way Tony Blair did. He does understand the currents and tries to swim with them, and knows – like a good magician – how to fool the public, and how at times to genuinely impress without giving them too many ideas as to how he does it. But this changeability might be useful in opposition; he may need to solidify and build on this to make sure he is ready for his desired election. Again, a Merfolk Wizard, but not our Vodalian Mage, who frightens and impresses – and kills – with surprise and direct action. If Foxy can come up with something from this introspection (I feel this card means he is always looking for ways to present himself as bigger and better than Brown without having to come up with the goods; and this is a particular issue at the moment), then he can actually be the VM. If not, then not.

Inner reality – party

Gilt-Leaf Seer – Green – Elf Shaman

Desmera blinded her seers so that her beauty would be the last image burned in their memories. The act only deepened their insight.

The damage done to the Conservatives only makes them stronger and wiser. If this power can be controlled by Foxy, so much the better (for him at least). But if he has blinded them in some way, then the party knows who did it, and what they need to restore their sight. By manipulating and breaking his party in to their communal harness, Foxy may think he has made sure of their loyalty; but I’m not sure that the party does not at the same time resent this imposition. Peter Oborne took a stand against the sleazebags in Cameron’s Shadow Cabinet – but no-one save Andrew Mackay has been sacked, unlike the mass destruction of Brown’s own Cabinet. This may be an issue Foxy has to face at some point. The party is still blind – but this produces a way of viewing the world which relies on feelings rather than conscious vision. The dangers here are latent, but could surprise if things get too bad later on.

Roots of his situation

Scarred Vinebreeder – Black – Elf Shaman

For disfigured elves, there are few choices beyond death or nettlevine.

Another Black card. Cameron has to work harder now, is what I’m getting from “Deep Throat”, because he has produced a legion of disaffected Tories beneath the parapet of public view. If the Nameless Inversion becomes too great, they could cause problems; they already in effect have, but I’m getting from Deep Throat as well that there is still too much holding the party together which needs to be loosened before things can really get going. Nevertheless, he adds that this blackness in Foxy’s cards – where Gordon had mostly red (chaos) and green (deeper power and solidity), Vulpes Vulpes has too much black, even so far, to be really confident of anything greater than current output. While the disaffected have not made their move, Foxy is safe. But when they do, he’s toast.

Seeds sown by his situation

Thieving Sprite – Black – Faerie Rogue

Deep Throat, who has made himself audible because he says I am more relaxed, more switched off to external influences (the barrage of press information or other people’s opinions, mainly, but also non-political personal issues such as worrying about indigestion, gastric flu or my boss from hell) and more receptive to information from above, says that this represents that more difficulties for the Tories over their money matters are on the way; and he says the issue of second jobs that I saw plastered over Page 2 in the Sun on Monday was not a red herring by any means. Thievery was not just confined to Labour, and Cameron’s refusal to clear out the dead-wood in the Shadow Cabinet may still plague him. He is unable to resist more meddling and more intransigent reluctance to give up the perks of the job. DT also says that the sacrificial backbenchers were not enough for Cameron to really fill the electorate with confidence that he is the one to sort things out. Nevertheless, for the time being, DT says, I should not get excited about the ultimate defenestration yet.

Advice

Runed Stalactite – Artifact/Equipment

When a changeling adopts a form no other changeling has taken, a rune appears in the caverns of Velis Vel to mark the events.

The key to this card is innovation and ingenuity, particularly in the area of policy. It is something the Tories just lack, and what will win them the election and distance themselves from sleaze. We’ve been asking the same question for three and a half years, we get a different answer every time, and nothing seems to add up, but we might as well keep asking him while he is around to answer us. The advice, in other words, is the same as it always has been – stop relying on tactics and start thinking long-term, governmental strategy.

Warning

Wren’s Run Packmaster – Green – Elf Warrior

This is the gathering of forces, and in an ill-dignified aspect, it is the gathering of momentum against rather than for the leader as he currently leads. The disaffection of the Vinebreeder above can and will gather momentum if the advice is not taken and innovation is not made in policy terms to match Labour’s ability to come up with a new initiative every day and add more elements to its overgrown state. Without a coherent answer, the pack will gain new members, and since the wolves’ bite will be deadly, I would advise Fox to start running, fast, in the opposite direction.

Direction

Skittering Monstrosity – Black – Horror

Most living things were weakened and stunted in the ruinous aftermath of the Phyrexian invasion, but a few grew more horrid than ever.

As with last night’s reading for the Conservatives as a whole, the only way for the moment is down – the intensification of the corruption, the short-term tactics that only lead to winning the election rather than governing decently, the arrogance and sleight of hand which I have come to expect from Foxy. If he is the Vodalian Mage, then he will know how to deal with this Monstrosity. But since it came up in the Party’s cards, and is now in his cards, I think he is connected with the degeneration rather than the regeneration.

Solution

Smokebraider – Red – Elemental Shaman

“Be silent and listen to your inner fire. Only then can you walk the Path of Flame.”

Cameron needs to be able to grasp the flaming nettle here – mixing my metaphors to keep in with the cards rather than the English language – and do what no Tory leader has yet done – prove himself to be skilled at governing rather than winning. He does have the capability – his inner fire – but he doesn’t have the skills to launch a better strategy than just keeping quiet and hoping he can manipulate press and public to get into the driving seat. The expenses scandal and his reaction suggests to me he needs to promise something solid and substantial – but his inner fire is currently spent trying to manipulate and plot against a new Speaker chosen by Parliament. What is alien to him seems to be acceptance of the neutral elements of government because they don’t work in his direct personal or political favour. It’s his loss if he doesn’t learn to harness the inner fire, and it eventually guts him as a result.

Outcome

Elvish Promenade – Green – Tribal Sorcery/Elf

The faultless and immaculate castes form the lower tiers of elvish society, with the exquisite caste above them. At the pinnacle is the perfect, a consummate blend of aristocrat and predator.

Deep Throat counsels that this card means something different to when it came up for Gordon in the context of preening but over-ambitious juniors lining up to replace him. Foxy has no such problem; there are no contenders seriously vying for his job. However it does represent leadership issues, with personalities not so much clashing as conspiring in the event of difficulties to come. The depth of the cold malice inherent in this card is chilling. When it comes, it will come swiftly and coherently; but the weight of personal issues here means that as with the Cabinet, the corruption will be cleansed away (perhaps unwittingly) and the best can come out of this seemingly evil situation.

Significant events: June/July

Boggart Sprite-Chaser – Red – Goblin Warrior

“Auntie pointed out to the faerie how much mischief a flying boggart could wreak, and a beautiful new friendship was born.” – A Tale of Auntie Grub

The card shows a union of disparate interests in such a way as to make the Tories the ones to watch over the summer. Again the colour is red and the element of chaos is inserted into the situation; wild abandon trumps cool, clearheaded thought. It is this loss of control that shows the Tories to be just as bad as the government when it comes to internal politics; it is born not perhaps of frustration (although there is enough of that about) but also of high spirits leading to too much frivolity rather than too little. Something that seems innocent can turn deadly, and because this is Cameron’s cards in particular we are looking at rather than his party’s, it erodes his authority.

Significant events: August/September

Mournwhelk – Black – Elemental

It hoards Lorwyn’s rare sorrows.

An ending on a black card again does not sit well with Tory plans. “Rare” sorrows suggests that what no longer seems to fit with Tory success develops into something rather unfortunate; and discarding in the mechanics suggests an ending rather than a beginning.

Poor Vulpes Vulpes. Amen.

The Finnish Centre Party has pulled out of the new Conservative and Reformist grouping in the European Parliament; Twitter pal jamesgraham, not a big fan of Vulpes Vulpes by any means looking at his tweets, posted this link here for our delectation. There is a certain dryness to the report, and I don't follow European politics (I learned a long time ago there was only so much I could get upset about at any one time) that much but James seems to think it gives more than just a passing shove to the possibility of the BNP-ski group really taking off.

I'll pull a random card from the Magic database instead of using my own, and up comes...

False Memories - Blue - Instant

"My enemies will forget everything other than their anguish." - Ambassador Laquatus [yes it's him, yes he's a Merfolk...].

This card deals with changing events at random and refreshing available resources (although technically the "graveyard" is where spent spells and dead creatures go in the game - a discard pile, if you will - there are always spells to bring those creatures back to life, such as the Makeshift Mannequin spell we have seen in readings before). It creates nothing - it doesn't seriously alter the state of play that much - but it subtly alters the landscape, maybe removing resources from Vulpes Vulpes' control or warping what he thought was available both in Europe and beyond. It seems the Finns might have betrayed their British friends because the loss of influence by leaving their current grouping may actually have been too great for them to bear. As I said, it doesn't change anything directly, but it provides Foxy with a potential set of falser friends and shows the transience of loyalties originally pledged. Not an auspicious omen to say the least.

Owlperson adds that the Tories have been losing support because they count on the friendliness of the centre-right currently in power in France and Germany, but he does wonder about the lack of support for a far-right grouping in general and is sceptical himself of this move. In the sense of "false memories" here, he also counsels that the card brings a random element into play - rather than relying on what you have directly available, you trust that the alternatives are better, but have to stick with what you have rather than being able to recall that which you have rejected. In a sense it is a metaphor for the whole concept of the "BNP-ski" group: the Tories are gambling on the unknown rather than sticking with the known. This could be good, it could be bad, but Owlie stresses the balance of power is no longer in their hands if they confine themselves to this strategy of non-cooperation to appease a few radicals. They have traded influence abroad for influence over a few rebels at home. It remains to be seen whether the gamble will pay off, particularly with Merkel and Sarkozy fairly stable at home and yet committed to the EPP. Foxy may have gained marginal allies at the expense of core support, always a foolish move. The falseness may not hit home domestically yet, but a diminishing influence even within the larger grouping in the European parliament was in his mind quite foolish.

We'll see, he says ominously.

Continuing the introductory series using Magic The Gathering cards to tell sharper and more detailed political fortunes, I am struck by the need to explain the colours of the “suits” in the game, and what situations they refer to. Any card game or indeed tarot pack seems to do much better having suits to categorise the cards and what they refer to.

The traditional tarot uses Wands (Fire, superficial actions and perhaps in political terms reactions and responses to events as opposed to deeper seated policy), Swords (Air, the ideas and intellectual arguments bandied back and forth as to how to run the country, in our political model at least; the upper numbers of the suit become more and more polarised to show the rise or fall – particularly fall – of the protagonists involved), Cups (Water, the emotional depths and personal interactions between people as well as the appearances and spin that  characterise modern politics) and lastly Pentacles or Coins (Earth, the actual political substance which governs policymaking and actual results but tends to get lost beneath the other suits in what actually rules the media’s interests). The Major Arcana stand alone as the issues of fate and uncontrollable direct events (such as the credit crunch or what led to the expenses scandal; minor disturbances like Smeargate or Yachtgate can be represented by trumps but are more likely from my point of view to be of Minor Arcana significance rather than epoch-defining or epoch-shattering cataclysms), while the Court cards are involved in the suits and represent whole personalities working within the system rather than single actions or the results of a bad hair day chez Brown or Cameron.

In Magic, the suits are ordered slightly differently.

White – usually governs knights, angels, chivalry, the backbone of what is considered “good” but can lead to the fossilising, ossifying tendencies we can see might have led to this current chaos breaking out. In terms of politics for me it also represents healing and the respite from trouble which helps a party rally or provides a breathing space for more mundane issues to hit the headlines. If a White card comes up it means that there is more likelihood of a positive outcome than a negative result; but remember too much “good” and the “good” itself becomes corrupted. White is the colour of the “War on Terror” – too much assuming you are the only one in the right and you become rather...left.

Blue – the Conservative colour which for me will suggest – but not dictate – a Conservative solution as opposed to Labour being the party with the advantage. In the game it is the colour of magical manipulation and clever sleight of hand, mainly allowing the player to erode his opponent’s resources or call on more options of his own. It restrains, binds and constricts; in general political terms it means an intellectual solution may be found, arbitration between two competing sides both with their own views and opinions. It is the colour of most think-tanks and also of negotiations such as we saw after the European elections where Gordon Brown appeared to bargain his way out of trouble for now. In terms of the tarot – and not all colours have a tarot analogue – it is the suit of Swords. It also represents the suit of Cups quite often, as its focus is Water as well as Air; the Vodalian Mage is blue.

Red – Labour colour and too many red cards in a reading for the Blues or vice versa mean Labour is more important in this situation (or indeed the other way round – too many blue cards in a reading for Brown or his party and I will take it that the Tories here have the upper hand). The colour of chaos, the colour of blood and fire and general mayhem; represented in Magic by the iconic Goblins, if these cards come up it doesn’t necessarily mean the protagonists are in reality nasty deformed little troglodytes (Owlperson sometimes may beg to differ, but he knows the people involved personally and they come in all shapes, sizes and party labels), though it might do if the subject is Hazel Blears, but it means that they are acting foolishly, irrationally and with more venom and hatred than is strictly necessary.

Not that I believe Labour alone do that (for pure venom and stupid hatred watch the Tory reaction to the election of John Bercow) but the colour red may also sit well with the fiery suit of Wands in the conventional tarot. The preponderance of red cards in Boris Johnson’s reading last night made sense about how he governs London – on a wing, a prayer, and an aide’s assistance – and made me think he was rather too scatty to be Prime Minister, only maturing into Green as the years tick by.

Green – Owlperson likes to think of Parliament as still sovereign, even though it is corrupted by partisan loyalties. As the colour of the House of Commons (we can more or less ignore the Lords, though our dear friend Lord Mandelson of Foy and his Knights of the Rump Cabinet may intrude once or twice to put their views across through the Red suit) it means that this suit may be better suited to matters where a holistic solution – a neutral one, a non- or bi-partisan answer – may be the way forward. It is largely the colour in Magic of large lumbering creatures, with or without brains to match, and likes to Trample its opponents rather than think of ways to outwit them. The steamroller of history may be coming towards us, disguised as a Giant Spider or a Verdant Force. In the tarot it is also represented by Pentacles/Coins, being an earthy and back-to-basics suit.

Black – the colour of corruption, filth, sleaze and murky dealings. Scandal, outright danger, decay and the creeping dread of something far worse than even the BNP is coming and this is not a suit I’d like to see in anyone’s cards as it really means that the situation may have gone beyond what is salvageable without major reforms or cutbacks. If a black card comes up I would be under no illusions that there is either something rotten in the state of Britain lurking or that necessary but painful measures will be taken to put it right.

Gold – Some cards are multi-colour or “hybrid” – usable with two or more colours in the game. Hence they can be treated as partly one colour above and partly another, blending and mixing the two aspects for a more balanced prognosis.

Artifacts – a non-coloured card – normally the tools and equipment used on the battlefield of Magic, and hence either neutral players, neutral forces or simple mechanics of the situation which are hard to classify as one or other of the above colours. In political terms it might be the simple ticking of time to evaporate the goo of another messy affair (such as Yacht- or Smeargate, both superseded by the ordure of the Black cards of the expenses scandal, which still doesn’t have a pithy name despite attempts to label it “Moatgate”) or the disinterested parties such as the Bank of England, the Daily Telegraph or other press outlets which assist the stories but do not – on the whole – make them.

Land – locations and providers of coloured resources driving the game forward. None of the “basic land” cards made it into my reading pack because they do not say much about the places we find ourselves in. However I have just bought a couple of new packets of cards, and one card is labelled Crumbling Necropolis. As a metaphor for Parliament at the moment, Owlperson is insisting I put it into my pack to show up when it is most needed.

On with Gordon’s reading before we drown in our own verbiage.

READING: GORDON BROWN – PROGNOSIS OVER THE SUMMER

Situation

Oakgnarl Warrior – Green – Creature: Treefolk Warrior

“Roam as you will, your roots remain in the strong earth of your Rising.”

Again, I think Brown is stronger and more deeply rooted than he necessarily appears or how his enemies want him to appear. No doubt things will get worse for him, but he has the strength and resilience inside to be Prime Minister for as long as the electorate don’t throw him out. The crucial ability of the last four PMs has been their ability to stay strong, and this is why I disagree with Angel Neptune about Boris – PM isn’t about image, it’s about depth of character and not trying to twist with the wind. Wind may ruffle your leaves, and a storm might well fell you, but a mighty oak is stronger than a bouncy (but intelligent and ambitious, I’ll grant him that) frog when it comes to recognising Prime Ministerial talent. The job is not a figurehead for chaotic advisors – it’s for someone with the deep roots to outlast the storms above. Brown is not finished by a long chalk, but from the distance that I’m looking at the card’s detail, the warrior’s gauntlet looks very like the steeple of St Martin-in-the-Field church (the one off Trafalgar Square) toppling under the strain of an unseen wind. Things are very rough out there, and Brown needs to engage his inner warrior to make sure he isn’t blown over by this storm.

Public appearance

Hunt Down – Green – Sorcery

“Springjacks and faeries can be difficult to hunt, but my favourite prey are the flamekin. They never fail to put up a worthy fight when cornered.”

Brown is still the subject of the public’s hunt and still in danger from public opinion. Although as in his situation he has the personal strength to deal with it, he is being pursued keenly by a public newly enfranchised by recent months’ affairs. Owlperson notes that there is an owl in this card as well; he has a bit of insight into the Vodalian Mage that I don’t have and says this owl’s appearance holds a key to the identity of the Mage as a totem symbol. In the public’s domain here though he says the owl is still only an observer and will not be able to use the public to manipulate the situation here. What is more important is that the card shows the flamekin – red elementals – at swordpoint, suggesting public confidence in Brown is low and that the Prime Minister needs to do more than just root himself in his own soil and hope he is not blown over.

Media appearance

Icatian Moneychanger – White – Creature – Human

The Moneychanger is an old card which is not now typical of cards generally published – the old Magic game was more of a standard swords-and-sorcery genre which created whole worlds rather than followed epic battlefield stories. Brown is of course a former Chancellor who sits better with money matters than “politics” at its most basic. I would think if he called an election now the media would still see Labour – and in them, Brown – as the most efficient and effective ruler, even if the Moneychanger does look more sinister than the White suit may allow for. In a sense Brown here for the media at least is still an effective if aloof government man, and no-one else has his capabilities quite yet for balanced government, and it is a testament to his own courage and bluster and his opponents’ foolishness that he has managed to stay ahead. Although opinion-formers might still feel that he has a long way to go to restore their absolute confidence, loyalty and support, the media doesn’t seem to be portraying him that badly – it means he needs to try and focus himself at least on the object of government and hope his opponents, whether inside Labour or outside his party, will do themselves enough damage before he is fatally wounded. As Heimdall to Cameron’s Loki, he is probably doomed to fall anyway, but at least he may take others worse than he down with him.

Inner reality – personal

Aether Burst – Blue – Instant

As fleeting as a cephalid’s promise.

Cephalids are squid-men which replaced Merfolk for a while, with Merfolk coming back in the game over the last few years (this is a card published in 2001, before the design and the direction of the game changed somewhat). Brown inside is reliant mainly at the moment on day-to-day issues, and is not, unfortunately perhaps for him, making enough hay while the sun does still shine to last him through the winter. He works on bursts of energy and understanding, but doesn’t have much substantial yet to sustain him unless he can find another issue – swine flu has been mentioned, though it seems unlikely in this day and age that with public hygiene being important that it will become a modern Black Death – to grasp as a leader as he did with the credit crunch last year. Inside he is floating – but hopefully this will be replaced with a bit more solidity in the long run.

Inner reality – party

Giant Harbinger – Red – Giant Shaman

There is still rumblings within the party, they are trying to find another giant, and it is matter of time and events before they get to the prize here before Brown has enough grounds to stop them again. Although their resources are meagre at the moment – the expenses scandal has put too many people beyond the leadership pale, though equally it didn’t stop John Bercow being elected Speaker – they are trying to pave the way for another giant to give Brown the Ent a run for his money. Giants are by their nature clumsy and greedy, however, and another Miliband-style blunder could cost Brown’s opponents more than it costs their beleaguered leader.

Roots of his situation

Elvish Promenade – Green – Tribal Sorcery – Elf

The faultless and immaculate castes form the lower tiers of elvish society, with the exquisite caste above them. At the pinnacle is the perfect, a consummate blend of aristocrat and predator.

This spell generates more creatures – elves, in this case – to harry the opponent with. In Brown’s case, this is the parade of would-be leaders portraying themselves as whiter-than-white and possibly perfect even while their expenses scandals lay decomposing in the Telegraph column inches. Hazel Blears, Jacqui Smith, James Purnell, David Miliband (last summer), Alan Johnson (this summer) – all tried and failed. But they felt the need to try – and Brown at least needs to make sure he understands that and tries not only to cling on but redress the balance.

Seeds sown by his situation

Kithkin Greatheart – White – Kithkin Soldier

Sometimes a curious giant singles out a “little one” to follow for a few days, never realising the effect it will have on the little one’s life.

Kithkin are what pass for hobbits in the Magic world. In this card a lumbering, clumsy giant treads on his small assistant. Or not, as the case may be. Brown simply needs to look out for lumbering giants and make sure they don’t tread on him. Could be quite difficult, but remember – giants are clumsier than ents. They make good muscle, but not good brains, and you need both to lead the party and both to lead the country. But having created some rather ornery giants in his time, that Brown still needs to look out for them is no-one’s fault but his own.

Advice

Spore Flower – Green – Fungus

The “fungus maiden” card again. Sleepy as she is, I am now drawn towards the ruins in the background, and might suggest that Brown wakes up to what those ruins represent (a green card – Parliament, perhaps?) and tries to repair them before they are consumed by the fungal growth which would put them beyond hope. It is possible to do so, but Brown’s still-solid position may still produce both complacency and inertia, and those ruins look like becoming a reality if this isn’t halted immediately. That it can is already in doubt, but Brown could do something to restore Parliament rather than just lowering his centre of gravity and waiting until it all goes better for him again in the autumn.

Warning

Goblin Chirurgeon – Red – Goblin

“I asked one of my aides how they do it, but all he’d say was, ‘Trust me, Mayor, you don’t want to know’” – Lydia Wynforth, Mayor of Trokair

This little mischief-maker is already machinating against Brown, and being smaller than the average giant he may well be possessed of a few more ounces of cunning, if not intelligence, than his bigger friends. What Brown fears, possibly, are giants. What he should be fearing are the goblins – those that look harmless now but may be concocting vile experiments, homunculi or zombies in their backbench laboratories. Being red, it’s primarily a threat from within his own party. The good thing about this is goblins are generally as stupid as giants, and like Miliband last summer may blow their hand too soon out of pride, hubris or excitement. But Brown should really know about this beforehand if he is going to sort things out properly in the longer term.

Direction

Tideshaper Mystic – Blue – Merfolk Wizard

He paints with drop and shimmer a world that only exists in the wistful heart.

An artist, then, a painter of fantasy and imagination that thinks outside the box. It’s a blue card, but we’ve had blue Merfolk Wizards before (coughcoughVodalianMagecoughcough) and the direction is still in their direction. Nevertheless, if Brown really can show a bit of vision here he may be able to pre-empt the Mage’s own ideas and protect his party from running out of ideas to create the baroque public sector that Brown set himself as a challenge when he came into government twelve years ago. He and Blair did show the Tories they were capable of using their policies, making them more Labour-orientated, and selling them to the public in ways limited only by the paucity of New Labour’s bureaucratic idea of the state. The Mage, when he comes, will have real vision and talent and real ideas how to square the circle of making the state do less and making it do what it does better. That is Brown’s task now, but it may end in being taken over by the Mage when he comes. For now it’s in Brown’s hands to do this, which is why I’m not saying this too is a harbinger of the Vodalian Mage. It’s not. But it shows the direction Labour has to go to recapture the public imagination and the electorate’s all-important vote.

Solution

Spellstutter Sprite – Blue – Faerie Wizard

This is what the game terms a “counterspell”, a way of neutralising your opponents’ spells before they take effect. What is happening here is Brown merely holding things off, buying time, and not using his own imagination – and remaining government authority – pro-actively enough to allow a genuine return to prominence and real safety. Perhaps he is trying to punt things over the hill of the next election, hoping a recovery will ease the polls slightly and provide him with a 1992 last-chance-saloon victory in order to help him realise his dreams and ambition. But countering his opponents is not enough to win the game – he needs help from the giants and ents rather than hoping to keep the Tories at bay indefinitely. They might boob before long, but if Brown could leave them in the dust, he should do. But this solution is not at all satisfactory for those of us who dislike Cameron intensely and don’t want him anywhere near Downing Street before he has had a chance to understand that his party has no idea how to oppose properly, still less to govern generously. Brown may here be holding off his critics until he can find the solution, but this needs to come after the countermagic. I’m not sure it’s enough L.

Outcome

Seedguide Ash – Green – Treefolk Druid

“May you shade three generations of seedlings.”

That sounds like a blessing for a third term, but not a fourth. It may be too late to win the election, though the appearance of the Vodalian Mage might mean that it is not yet too late for Heimdall to take Loki down with him. Again, another ent card, one more dynamic than an oak, but less all-mighty. Brown needs to learn to think on his feet and this card genuinely I believe does show that, but I’m not sure that flavour text really gives me confidence that when the Mage appears, he’ll go the distance against him. Tackling Loki might produce a result, but the message here is – Labour might have won a third term, but a fourth may not after all be within their grasp.

Significant events: June/July

Aspect of Mongoose – Green – Enchantment – Aura

This card protects the creature to which it is attached during the game from the spells/effects of another player. It may be that for now Brown is actually “shrouded” (a keyword imposed on this mechanic after this card was printed) by his own resilience and game-playing. A temporary card, but a better one than possibly expected. One thing I have been struck by this year is the lack of disastrous cards in Brown’s forecasts, and to a certain extent the Prime Minister is the last to fall of any public figures in disgrace; we have had four in the last thirty years, plenty of hopefuls, but no-one quite up to challenging even Mouse-totemed Major until he lost in 1997. This is why I am so down on Boris Johnson’s prospects – it takes a really special person to be in this position and keep going through such chaotic and unpredictable times. Brown is special by having faced down his critics and put the cap on things to an extent that he did come third in the European Elections, not fourth, and as such kept his job. But I knew that all along – I may not have been able to articulate it, which would be the mark of a much better psychic – and this card brings little surprises in store for the next five weeks at least.

Significant events: August/September

Makeshift Mannequin – Black – Instant

“This vulgar mimicry will end” – Desmera, perfect of Wren’s Run

See, it works. This card suggests decay and undeath, and a difficult month for all concerned; Brown is barely left standing, a shop’s dummy of a prime minister, but the black in this card gives me comfort that what I do “see” – or perhaps a better word is “feel” – happening begins to happen. The impact is increased by this being the first black card in the spread, allowing me to pinpoint the troubled months for the PM much more than conventional tarot. Brown is reduced by events to an empty shell. Whether he can recover, whether he will be sacked, whether he will just go down to defeat at the eventual election, I don’t know solely from this card, though Desmera’s edict here may reflect that as much as the Seedguide Ash’s flavour text augurs only three terms for Labour. I don’t think this suggests a leadership crisis so much as a feeling of inevitability, but it fits with the idea that the Vodalian Mage is on his way for the Tories to deal with their Skittering Monstrosity issues.

Responses

Elvish Scout – Green – Elf

Although the Elves of Havenwood lived in isolated villages, their swift communications allowed them to act as a single community.

Brown evidently has the resources here to maintain some sort of shell of authority by being more aware of what is going on than his giants. Owlperson once explained he believed it was impossible to be a politician without some sort of conscious ability to anticipate the future and plan for it; he originally explained that this meant consciously psychic, as he says he is, but perhaps this could be downgraded to a situation where being a senior politician really means that one is switched on subconsciously to know what your giants are doing and pre-empting them or knowing which ones are harmless (because they are compromised by capital gains tax fraud or a bath plug claimed on expenses) and which ones are so abstemious as to be worth taking note of and cultivating as allies – in Owlie’s words, better inside the tent pissing out than vice versa. Given this, Brown’s response to issues is to keep his eyes and ears open and although he does project the image of someone having multiple drinks in that proverbial Last Chance Saloon, he does know what is going on. Until someone can outwit him – though it may not be being outfoxed that he is particularly worried about, since Cameron’s plans are as vapid and empty as ever, betraying his background in advertising rather than sound government once the going calls for something more solid than spin – Brown is safe, but such safety must not be confused with the actual ability to expand and develop territory; it is him clinging on to the hope of a fourth term despite history telling us that might not help the Labour Party in the slightest.

Conclusion

Basalt Gargoyle – Red – Gargoyle

The red-in-tooth-and-claw cards often don’t care too much about the creature’s toughness – the damage they can withstand – so long as they can deal a lot of damage to the enemy. The first deck I seriously played in this game was concentrated on dealing as much damage as possible directly to the opposing player because they were in love with a card – Dark Confidant – that routinely damaged them each turn. But this card solidifies itself with more resources poured into it, such that it can safeguard its own position on the battlefield. Brown is trying to do this, and he is able to do it so long as he isn’t directly harmed either by his own side or by his opponents. As his opponents do more damage to themselves he is all right. But the reckoning will come when he no longer has the resources to pump himself up – and that requires opponents who are themselves strong enough to launch a campaign which is righteous enough to do battle with, being honest here, someone who has the inner righteousness to at least see off his current rivals. Once we get to a position where the bad have been swept away – as happened, ironically, with the three resignations during election week – then Brown may start to get into real trouble.