Parliament of Fowls

Reinstated minister Shahid Malik, after convincing Brown that the skeleton in his cupboard was just an anatomist's mannequin, has been caught out yet again: two houses simultaneously on the Fees Office books.

As the stag said when the doe came to bed: Oh dear.

Will this be a record for shortest ministerial posting? The Queen of Swords at this point asks us to draw our own conclusions (i.e. probably not), but he's not looking incredibly good all the same.

Sorry for my absence. I had issues over the weekend and thought I'd take a break for a few days properly now that the elections are over.

Now the BBC, however, rouses me from my gentle slumber and gets in on the probity debate and goes after vested undeclared interests.

You'd have really thought that since Neil Hamilton and Jonathan Aitken inadvertently lifted the lid on this issue fifteen years ago it would have been rammed home by now. Not so. Whether or not it will catch light now the recent scandal has died down to smouldering embers, I don't know, but sitting here watching the BBC report it seems they are trying rather hard to re-ignite the bushfires. It's important - but without I suspect the reach of a national newspaper and the newsprint availabe to cover the issue in detail, it won't really get going...or will it?

There are a lot of questions arising from these elections, particularly for the main parties, but as I suspected now that they have taken place there is a feeling around me that a line has for the moment been drawn under this episode - but - and this is a big but - the damage is in my opinion done. Separating desire from belief has been difficult but over the last month I've been more interested in this because it seems to solve a number of problems around what I've been feeling all this time and makes me feel like I've stumbled into a Disney cartoon about Mickey and Pluto on a train.

No, don't laugh. When I was young I had a VHS tape of various obscure cartoons. Mickey and Pluto are travelling on a train to Pomona in California. Mickey is told by the guard that he has to leave the train because he is forbidden to bring dogs onto it. Cue a lot of running around, hiding Pluto in suitcases which fall open from the luggage rack, dressing him up as a baby, Mickey's wife and so on. No dice. Mickey and Pluto are tossed unceremoniously off the train and sit stranded on the rails. Sighing, Mickey turns to Pluto..."We'll never get to Pomona now", he says sadly.

They look up. Right up at the Pomona station water tower.

The moral of the story is - life tosses you about with seemingly petty concerns and difficulties, and just when you feel like giving up - you arrive, somehow, at the destination you were aiming for anyway. Answers always come in the way that teach you the lessons you need, even if they are painful and you often don't understand what is going on. This jigsaw has taken me nearly six years to put together, and I feel that this, although mild in content and not feeling as if it could go as far or as wide as expenses, looks like a new chapter opening for us.

Oh well. As the Beeb has just pointed out anyway, in 20 billion years time Mars or Venus will smash into the Earth, obliterating us completely. Compared to that, 1688 and all that seems preferable.

QUICKIE READING FOR THE DEVELOPMENTS

Situation before the elections - VI Cups

At the election the biggest issue was housekeeping and how the electorate assessed the issues in totality. This probably staunched the flow of votes to the minor parties, though it didn't help Labour in particular. The children to me appear to be smelling the plants; the electorate was perhaps more animated and more directly focussed on their candidates and on their government/opposition than in previous years. (The benefits of exorcising much of the emotion around the situation to me has restored something of the psychic perception I had while I was still fumbling around on Mickey's train. Now I'm in Pomona I can see clearer myself and don't have to rely so much on my guides to assist.)

Situation after the elections - II Pentacles

The Two of Pentacles is always depicted as a churning sea, though not as a chaotic maeltstrom, rather than as a clockwork mechanism driving the situation forward, whether for good or bad. The momentum has not left the system, but has rather overcome previous inertia to produce a steady and now inexorable erosion of confidence in government and opposition.

Differences - Queen of Pentacles

When the expenses scandal broke neither government nor opposition could really get a grip on the issue because of tendencies within both parties which damaged them in the eyes of the public. Cameron offered his usual gimmicks and paid for it by having his own damaging mortgage claims splashed on the front cover of the Mail on Sunday. Brown suffered because his stolid persona could not grasp the enormity of what was going on until too late, though he survived largely because the Tories' vote suffered alongside theirs - or didn't grow enough to give them a clear road to the finish. (I wish Foxy would stop being childish about Brown trying to "fix" the vote. It doesn't give me a lot of confidence of his ability to govern if he is prepared to claim that the government, by proposing a justified if irrelevant solution to the current crisis of confidence, is not at least playing foul. Justifiable accusations of election fraud aside, it just makes him sound petty and vindictive, rather than mature enough to face the electorate in government. It's something you expect from the UKIP pamphleteers and their leaflets about the Illuminati (relax, Owlie says they don't exist, though the Bilderberg Group is a more prosaic group that acts in a similar manner; though Blair was a more enthusiastic member than anyone before or since) at the local horticultural society, not a mature leader of the official Opposition. King of Swords says that this is a jab in the right direction - PR is certainly not the answer to any question currently being posed, and as the polls stand it might well establish a permanent Lib-Lab coalition if the Libs would have Brown - but not with enough weight to carry the day. Live by the sword, die by the sword, as Michael Forsyth said when he lost Stirling in 1997.)

Apparent result for the Tories - VII Swords

A result which saved face but a left crucial part of their arsenal behind them on the wrong side of the expenses scandal. It was a "steal" in some respects, but their vote in the European elections only came to 1% more than in 2004, and the vote in the Tory shires produced a mediocre result at 38%. The Seven can be interpreted either as swiping victory from the jaws of defeat, or not being able to carry everything away. The public realise this and are more sceptical about Cameron's ability to do anything other than robotically demand a general election and claim Brown is trying to fix the electoral system. Must try A LOT harder.

Apparent result for Labour - The Hermit

It's lonely at the top, and no-one needs to tell Brown that. He looks as if he is governing alone, and although I am relieved that my vote was not wasted, he is crippled by his inability to appoint people from the ranks of elected MPs without having to bring back the semi-disgraced Shahid Malik. Brown is isolated and may only make it to the next election by default. I feel for him deeply, but if not Cameron, and not him either, then who? I think I know the answer, but I'm still trying to cut through enough of the emotional fog in my mind to clarify it, so I'm not going to stake my reputation by saying what I really think about the whole issue of who will take over in Number 10. Brown can't go much further on, but I don't think Cameron has the ability to win either now, and that's obvious from the election results as well (since it was Michael Howard's downfall in 2004 that ruined 2005 after months - now years - of empty spin and Tory hubris). An isolated, sad card, ruling by default because no-one else is up to the job. We need another leader worthy of the name on either side to face the election.

Internal result for the Tories - Ace of Cups

A challenge for  the Tories is to overcome the curse of 2004-05 and take the initiative here. It means focussing on the real significance of policy and not becoming too robotic with slogans. Last time round Howard and co had a good slogan - "Labour are all talk" - but constant repetition drove me and others round the bend. Cameron risks doing this with his desire for an election, and petty point-scoring. The Tories do have a chance offered here but it needs to be taken, the cup drunk from, ingested, digested and regurgitated in some substantial way before they can convince the electorate to swallow 10% worth of cuts in public spending. This is the big issue now - can they face up to it properly or will they just trust in the vagueness of current output to damage Labour enough? Neil Kinnock might have the answer.

Internal result for Labour - Page of Wands

Labour are most definitely no longer really in control and can only nudge events to guide them in the right direction rather than actually steer and drive government forwards. We are in a position where we have neither government nor opposition - in 2004-05 we still had both, of a kind. This is the way history is made: when the status quo drains away to almost nothing and no alternative is obvious. It's just as well Nick Griffin cannot match Adolf Hitler in the charisma stakes otherwise we and our democracy and traditions of openness would be history.

Direction for the probes into MPs' conduct - Ace of Pentacles

A continuing substance and form is given to this line of enquiry and the building of other issues on the foundation laid by the initial scandal is predicted by this card. It's a dark sun formed by the pentacle in the card, but it is the case that this ruining of the reputation of our legislature is not going to go away; it will strengthen and solidify and damage things to come.

Advice for Tories - IV Wands

Put some structure into the plans for government - people want an election, but they want something to vote for, rather than against. It is arguable that Labour lacked in 1992 what the Tories lack now - and they have had 3 1/2 years to establish this form and substance. A strong and sturdy structure needs to be constructed - ASAP.

Advice for Labour - IX Swords

Danger is going to be ever-present. The intensity will wax and wane, but there is no relief from problems or difficulties merely because Gordon was not ousted in the aftermath of the elections. They need to hide their eyes from the more lunatic fringe (Charles Clarke in particular) and listen to the voices that really mean something and come from the real grassroots. That means discerning those voices, of course; but since disaster is not immediately round the corner, there is still a lot to be gained - or salvaged - from this time if the Prime Minister can find the gravitas and dignity to carry on. He has this in spades - or swords - so I believe he can limp on, but he must be aware of problems. Owlperson notes that he is more astute than people give him credit for but he sometimes strings crises in his authority out far too long for comfort, believing he can pull them back quickly. He did so on Monday with aplomb, but he increasingly resorts to the kind of bullying Owlie didn't think he was capable of, so Owlie says that although a leadership challenge is still a way off, he needs to deepen his relationships with his backbench and grassroots and be brave, bold and consistent on the good things about Labour policy. (Owlie also notes that he did not get where he is today by belittling or jeering at his opponents, one of the reasons he feels so sad about his friend Foxy's techniques of leadership.)

Warning for Tories - VIII Swords

There is a trap that the Tories have fallen into and may not be able to leave easily - the trap of the siren call of their own yes-men convincing them there is no problem with the results and the UKIP votes will all come back to them at the general election. They may find it is difficult to move out of this trap of silly point-scoring, having built the last three and a half years around them. There is a way forward, but it involves - at the moment - being cut to pieces whichever way they go. They have to go on, they can't go back - but it involves real pain, which might prove fatal for the next election. Their choice. Stay, and definitely lose. Go, and destroy themselves, and rebuild, and win. But it is not possible to do nothing.

Warning for Labour - II Swords

Indecision is fatal. There is a need here to make the decision now on how to fight the election. There is no honour in defeat if it destroys what the party stands for. Although I am caught between the two parties electorally - I want to vote Tory but find myself unable to back Cameron, and prefer Brown as a governing PM - I share more values with Labour and would like to see a more communitarian aspect to Tory policy as I believed Howard was more capable of than Cameron. Therefore Labour have to stop obfuscating, equivocating, hesitating and deviating, and do what I did on Thursday - put their policy before their electorate. They may be pleasantly surprised, but any more dithering and the Tories will get their act together.

Issues developing until July 1 - Knight of Swords

It does get worse. It gets faster, and the fires started by the expenses scandal are whipped by the Air of the Knight of Swords (Air acting as Fire, or a backdraft, to parody the style of the Beast himself, Aleister Crowley) into another inferno. It's not the BBC's article that does it, it's simply the churning momentum and the lack of systemic balance and equilibrium. It's not this week, it may be next week or the week after that it truly develops, but you can almost guarantee that, having been given the advice above, poltiicians will not take it. There is no-one of the substance or mercurial intelligence of Howard or Blair left in the system with any power or authority - merely a plodding donkey in Brown and a ranting Firefox (to coin a phrase) like Cameron. Thus things are almost guaranteed to get worse before they get better.

Solution developing until July 1 - Page of Cups, reversed

I could have told you that there would be a reversal in here, as I picked the cards up at random. The reversed Page drains the meaning from the upright card, as all reversed cups do. The Page is a student, acting on advice, with steady emotional bearing and the beginnings of control over those same emotions. The solution here is to relinquish control over the emotions, to bare all in the hope of finding a solution to the problems which damaged the main parties so much. A relaxation of control is, however, accompanied by the undoing of lessons learned - as bluntly as Shahid Malik going back into the government he was dumped from because Brown has no-one left untainted. It proves Owlie's point - the jobs will go to the cheaper ones in the end. Loss of control and relaxation can heal - but also destroy. It will do both.

Outcome at July 1 - IX Wands

Another month of Parliament embattled and fearful of the public. The mutation of the scandal is taking place - we are fully into Gemini by now - and Air only intensifies the talking and ideas being bandied around. By July 1 we will be under the influence of Cancer. My mother is Cancer - loving but harsh and often too pragmatic for her own good. Thus the defensiveness persists, and will persist until something radical deals a striking blow from within Parliament and from without.