The debate seems to be going on between those who don't understand history (2004 and now all this) and those who do. No-one can say that the Tories didn't do well (ish) and Labour didn't do badly (ish). But I'm prepared to ask the cards to cut through things a bit, after presenting the results as a whole after 34 of 34 councils have finally declared.
CON - 1476 +233 --- Percentage of vote if replicated in a general election 38%
Card: IX Cups - As I suspected. This is good but it represents a peak of sorts - the excess and abundance goes to the Tories' heads somewhat (as witnessed on Conservative Home, whose headline is "More beautiful than Caroline Flint"...erm guys, she's still Labour...) and this could get them into hot water because it represents a fall in past form.
LIBDEM - 473 -4 --- Percentage of vote 28%
Page of Cups, reversed - Failure to capitalise here on dissatisfaction mainly because people are now orientated towards choosing the next government rather than registering a protest vote. They have ceased to be the receptacle of protest votes for those disillusioned with government; however, my gut instinct is that the Tories still need to raise their game substantially to avoid themselves just being protest votes.
LABOUR - 176 -268 - Percentage of vote 23%
King of Wands, reversed - Inability to make the running or fight back here dragged them down but they may still retain some sort of ability to try and make sure they take things seriously. The card is reversed, but it is still a "good" card - a card of largely willful activity even if only in the realm of events rather than policy - and by working hard they could still come back to win as the Tories did in 1992. I'm still not convinced that things will be easy for either party - due to the influence of Pluto in the astrology charts at the moment - and I do feel the summer will get worse for all concerned. Furthermore, the removal of people like Purnell, Smith and Blears (and with Alan Sugar now in government, I do feel Gordon took my jocular hint the other night that he should kick out those with their hands firmly lodged in the communal biccie tin) may initially tie his hands to having to use peers to fill the gaps, but over time he may well be able to "grow" new talent to take over. While Pluto still lingers, however, there is danger still to come for all.
Questions in general - V Pentacles, reversed - The analysis needs time to sink in for both parties and both parties need to look at both clouds and silver linings. The 38% result is not wholly good for the Tories, and although people perhaps don't want to hear that at the moment, these percentages have to be looked at in conjunction not only with 2004 but with the previous years' cake-walks for the Tories. This is the devil in the detail which has to be squared with the current euphoria/depression prevailing in the media, and more sober analysis, while difficult, needs to be highlighted by those with a genuine interest in the future government of this country.
Answers in general - The Hermit, reversed - Again, it might not be heeded until it's too late. Everyone does this, but none so much as now. The Labour government is, unequivocally, in some sort of convulsion which, although resembling the second Major term, may still be heading for 1992 rather than 1997. Cameron for his part looks dangerously like he is going to play Kinnock to Brown's Major - by being too upbeat and too uninterested in anything but spin and snake-oil - which would do him more harm at the general election he so badly wants (he may live to regret calling for one if Pluto has its way), but Brown also needs to act in a less overbearing manner (if indeed he does this at all and it's not just an unfortunate image he has attracted by being the successor to the messianic - and Titanic - Blair who enjoyed Labour's years of plenty but not their corresponding years of famine). But with the Devil staring at me constantly from the "outcome" of the European election spreads I have done, I'm not sure whether either leader will take the hint. More's the pity.
Direction - Labour - IX Pentacles, reversed - The inability to use the productivity that remains to them and the impatience with the system that can still destabilise what remains. However the system still remains solid; it is more a question of Labour losing their way somewhat rather than completely dissolving; they still have the levers and reins of power and thus could end up with the inertia of the incumbency forcing its way to a small majority next time round, particularly if they can puncture Cameron's armour, dented already in the expenses scandal.
Direction - Tories - VI Swords - An attempt to find a new modus operandi, but one that leaves them at daggers drawn - the crossed swords in the middle of this card resonate quite distinctly. I'm not sure they have an easy ride - and as I said above, they need to knuckle down and sort things out so they have a reasonably coherent agenda by conference. It is what Michael Howard did during the summer of 2004 after breezing towards the elections that proved to be his downfall (or, as Owlperson is quick to point out, being breezed towards them in the hope by party spin doctors that they could get him to the election without him - which is what they have always assumed they can do because of the way they think Blair won 1997...but Blair at least had substance to back up his spin). They will do this - this is a direction card rather than advice - but since the swords are drawn, they will find it difficult to keep disagreements from flaring.
Advice - Labour - IX Swords, reversed - Labour need to swallow any pain and discomfort - there is still a country to govern. The reversed Nine suggests the danger and nightmares posed by the upright card can be relieved, but the issues still remain and are only kept at bay by a superhuman effort to keep them from swallowing people up. However, the Cabinet are no superhumans. Expect some fireworks, but not as much as some people might hope.
Advice - Tories - III Wands, reversed - Try to keep the energies from disintegrating as well. Try to keep things in the air, try to juggle the demands of the situation, and try to balance spin with a little bit more substance - the public need a reason to look beyond the sleaze spinning around both parties, and are not likely to warm to the Conservatives if they insist on hollowing themselves out in a mad dash towards the finish line rather than a genuine attempt to flesh out solid policies. The polling results put them in a danger zone as although they are wiping Labour out, they still need that magic 42% to overcome the inertia posed by such an imbalance in party seats at Westminster. Although Anthony King in the Mail suggested they could still win with 38%, Labour's vote at a general election is likely to rebound, and overcoming the 150 seat deficit they need to make up to win an overall majority will take more than 38%. Solidity needs to follow spin and sleaze.
Solution overall - VII Wands, reversed - The obstacles for both parties become bigger and there seems in this card to be a limit to how much either leadership can stay afloat over the summer. Increasing stakes mean increasing risks are taken, but the public will not forget the expenses scandal in a hurry, and will not forgive either government or opposition for appearing to be on the take in the middle of a deep recession. Politicians should avoid thinking that these elections draw a line under the scams and hypocrisy of the last month, and forget politics as usual as a result. It doesn't look like they can, but they must.
Outcome - Ace of Cups - This presents the parties with a challenge, and an opportunity for both to learn.
For Labour, the challenge is the VI Wands, reversed - to try to put these bad results behind them, remember that they were third in 2004 with a similar share of the vote and went on to win again, and to balance their personal goals with the solidarity and purpose Labour have always found. (Owlperson remarks that going into any public building and seeing the depth and complexity of the services we have come to expect makes him as a Conservative fearful that his own party still sees the system as something to be forcibly streamlined and that Labour at least understand the social agendas and social policies that go to make up the real world in which people have to function. The bureaucracy might be over-endowed and under-controlled, but at least it is Labour who really understand and care about the conditions in which it operates, rather than the current Tories who see it as a way of funding tax cuts and do not really understand the complexity of formulating social policy to fit the needs of the client base. In government he says he saw the Tories come into power in 1979 with ideas about how to rip out waste, excess and other mismanagement but not how to create an alternative system, leaving the health and education systems vulnerable to a pantomime Conservative government seeking ways to cut without mercy and without understanding the subtleties of managing social policy. Just witness the desire to abolish the Electoral Commission as a waste of money - that will stop me from voting Tory, for starters.Owlie says that the person who begins to understand social policy will be the one who takes over as the next Tory prime minister. However, Cambo has no idea where to begin except with a flashy headline and some smoke and mirrors about unfeasible tax cuts. Next!) Labour already understand losing, but they also know how to turn it round positively as well as negatively.
Tories - Strength - self-control and the ability to stop themselves going off the deep end. I feel that this represents Foxy being curtailed somewhat - from damaging things with a Kinnock-esque assumption that he can win by default, from becoming vapid and empty in his rash calls for an election when he doesn't even have a manifesto, from underestimating the power of Labour to pull itself back from the brink. The party needs to rein him in and appear more collegiate, balanced and cleansed of harmful elements in the Shadow Cabinet such as Gove and Maude (Peter Oborne is still insistent on this and it could yet backfire as Brown has had his own clearout). That is the challenge - and the solution? VI Cups - they are living in Arcadia, in their own private world. No chance.
