This just in. Ian Gibson has resigned to force a by-election in Norwich North. Mind you, the people who are resigning on the whole lack the authority because of the expenses scandal to really challenge the PM's authority, and looking back, Labour are exactly in the same position as the Tories were in 2004 after those local elections - down but not out. A very similar result is shown - Tories 37%, LibDem 27% and Labour 26% has been translated into Tories 38%, LibDem 28% and Labour 23%. The Tory gain of ~+250 seats has not eclipsed the Tory gain of +283. So the by-election could well be anyone's guess.

Quickie reading as a prediction:

Labour - Wheel of Fortune

Something happens to elevate their prospects rather than denigrate them; or at least the result is not as fixed as some people would wish it was.

Conservatives - VIII Pentacles, reversed

Again, not the omens Cameron might have wished for here as the card of hard work and building blocks on the road to ultimate success overturns and undoes a lot of hard work. If this is going to be a re-run of 2004 (at the very least - funny how Gemini elections work as opposed to Taurean ones), then the main challenge from the Tories will have been damaged rather than enhanced by these elections.

Liberal Democrats - The Hierophant

A chance to make a surprise gain if they keep honest and rational about their chances. A good strong campaign with realistic expectations, but better chances than the Tories above, interestingly enough.

Result overall - III Pentacles, reversed

This undoes the foundations of the system - it's not a surprise result so much as one which begins to loosen and shake things up as opposed to cement and build them towards the general election.

A general assumption about this: Labour will probably prolong this writ as long as necessary - just as the Tories did not move the writ for Henley until after their Nantwich victory, suggesting to me that there was and is more insecurity in their ranks than they dare show - and may well hold it on the same day as the contest in the former Speaker's seat too.