Tory donor Lord Kalms is withdrawing his support for the Tory party at these elections and telling people to vote for a fringe party – he is choosing UKIP.
So this, like the current Cabinet resignations, is lighting a fire under Cameron as well as Brown. Donors often speculate like this but the core support usually holds up under fire unless there is a serious point to be made. Stuart Wheeler was kicked out of the party in April before the expenses scandal got going but the main casualty of the expenses saga was Norman Tebbit, who urged voters to abstain rather than vote Conservative. Kalms is flirting with dismissal, but he is not the only one who should by rights go – Gove and Maude still remain, after all, even after the Cabinet bloodbath today. In a way Gordon Brown missed a trick – he could have said at PMQs, had he been more confident, that he had had the main problems removed from his Cabinet – now it was Foxy’s turn to reciprocate. Instead Vulpes Vulpes has lost not only another large donor but a sizeable part of his poll lead in the course of trying to win people back by government-by-SMS. He – and the arrogant Dan Hannan in the Torygraph – need to start listening to disillusioned councillors like Stuart Munro before they too go the way of the Blears.
On with the reading.
READING for the CONSERVATIVE PARTY for the EUROPEAN ELECTIONS on 4 June 2009
Situation – The Devil, reversed
C: The card here shows that the situation is inescapable for the Tories – the more they project outwards and crow about the situation Labour is in, the more their retinue flake at the edges, and the more their situation too becomes untenable. After the charge of the Light Brigade (“Into the valley of death/Rode the 600” – which is also eerily repeated at the end of Briggs’ seminal apocalyptic graphic novel, “When the Wind Blows”) the aftermath of the inescapable truths about parliamentarians’ behaviour is largely concerned with reaping the whirlwind sown over the years of largesse and over-indulgence. The Devil intensifies and becomes even more unpredictable; Hannan’s arrogant “ostrich politics” (L points out this comes from the Polish phrase strusia polityka) article underlines the incapability of politicians to even contemplate their own impending doom.
Owlperson: Hannan illustrates an uncomfortable situation and as a fellow Conservative I do actually know and respect him more in private than in public. I don’t believe he can write otherwise. But Clarence does actually point out that we are not allowed to speak our minds without scrutiny from the media, and I can’t name myself here for that reason (also because filtering my mind through Louise’s means some important detail is actually lost, enough to render my own statements mere observations rather than predictions). Hannan would hate to point out the real situation on the ground in a national newspaper printed on the morning of an important and watershed election. But perhaps if things did get reformed and party discipline was able to relax somewhat – something that may not happen in my lifetime but which I would consider the sign of a mature and grown-up democracy – it would be easier to tell the truth. But Hannan may not see that truth – few deep partisans do – and this is the sign of the Devil, that we are blinded by our own opinions and cannot see the deep divisions in the country, and that is our own downfall, not the fault of the public.
Situation with Kalms – VIII Wands, reversed
C: Kalms throws a spanner into the works and jams the cogs and gears that are driving the Tories forward. He is stopping the clock here – the Tories are damaged and delayed by this because even their older supporters are leaving them in droves. It pushes the case for his own dismissal towards Foxy, and there is a danger here that he may try another smaller party – and end up liking it. Foxy needs people to stay onside, and he is losing support from a lot of staunch Tory quarters.
Situation with Munro – Justice, reversed
C: Mr Munro has worked hard for the party as a councillor and a local activist and his enthusiasm is dampened by the current frustrations – visibly. Justice reversed here says the situation he believes is unfair to him and to others like him who feel let down by the high command. His frustrations may yet destabilise Cameron and lead to something more dramatic when the Tories fail to reach what they desire from these elections.
Conservative Party nationally – Queen of Wands, reversed
C: The party has had difficulty convincing people that it can respond to this crisis in a way in which the public will thank it for in the short term, if not the long run if current leadership remains. The reversed Queen indicates a lack of responsiveness, and this can be seen by the derisory ideas for reform put forward before the recess – nothing that showed any progressive Conservative thinking, a warmed-over New Labour tactic of using ephemeral technology to spin and proselytise rather than involve, integrate and encourage participation, and a reliance on gimmicks that are the hallmarks of this leadership, in which one half-baked plan is put forward after another without any kind of coherency of thought or overall ideas for action. The limp wrist has been exposed and the party can’t go anywhere momentous for duck islands and moat-dredging.
Conservative leadership – V Pentacles
C: Here the leadership misses the point and is a disappointment to donors, members and activists all. The leadership is hamstrung by its complicity in this situation, and is only saved from going under by big struggles within the Cabinet. The lack of substance has meant the party has tried to search for opportunities to play a long game, but the expenses scandal hit it harder than perhaps the Torygraph even expected and this has made their job all the more difficult than it already was.
Conservative Party in the field – VIII Cups
C: The party is restless and, illustrated by Stuart who is standing down at the next council elections from his post in Swallowfield, moving on into other spheres of interest because the outcome is now uncertain again after years of illusory plenty. It is trying to find a stable raison d’etre, it is trying too many ideas at once and not consolidating itself as a party of government, it is looking for cheap fixes, and it is doomed to – at least – find the Cameron well has run dry and to try another figure in the hopes of finding that magic formula that assisted Labour back into office after years in the wilderness.
Projected result – Page of Wands, reversed
C: The party knows it is going to be battered, and it knows that this will be painful and hamper its abilities to win the next election. All that is unknown is the actual figures.
Actual voting behaviour – III Cups, reversed
C: Those that have voted Tory will not necessarily do so this time round. It is difficult to see what is going on here, but the party is over at Westminster. People here vote according to their interests, but there is little success augured here unless the Tories are braver and cleverer and try to substantiate their gains by putting together something to save Parliament from damnation. People will not vote Tory willingly, and the party will lose some of its momentum as a result.
Difficulties – The Star, reversed
C: Again, this is becoming relentless. An inauspicious card again – hope is illusory and short-lived – and the Tories look uneasy and unprepared for any sort of European progress, still less equipped to fight for a place in government.
Solutions – The Lovers, reversed
C: The grassroots and backbenches have to take the leadership to task. With Kalms’ pronouncement they lose another prominent donor through indecision, inaction on some of their more senior problems in the expenses scandal, and Hague’s squirming on Newsnight scraped away a few more votes. There needs to be an inquest and sackings and there needs to be blood on the carpet before Cameron can even pretend to be ready to go into the run-up to an election.
Outcome of the result on the night – Queen of Pentacles, reversed
C: Similar to Labour, the lack of control and material direction over the party at the moment translates into a bad showing, or worse than needed to win a general poll outright. It may be time for Cameron to reconsider his personnel – or even his own position – if he cannot make any sort of hay while Labour burns.
Outcome for the foreseeable future – VII Swords
C: There is some chance that the Tories can pull things together again, but it will take delicate handling and balance to do this and it may require the swords to be wielded against close allies. If Cameron can’t do this, someone else will.
Outcome for the long-term – The Chariot, reversed
C: Again, there is a chastening effect here and a reduction in momentum which brings the party’s problems to the fore and demands that they be dealt with. The expenses scandal will not die hard while Maude and Gove remain on the front-bench; and Cameron’s own questionable mortgage has already laid him low, albeit as an also-ran story which has not had any sizeable impact on his leadership quite yet. These results force the party to re-assess their situation and deal with the problems.
