The state that the Cabinet is currently in is not, to say the least, a very good one, but one thing Owlperson points out – while still maintaining that it looks worse than it is and that can damage the government even if now harm was initially meant – that Jacqui Smith and Hazel Blears were probably pushed, rather than jumped of their own accord. It is difficult to see the reason for a broadly optimistic reading, but the idea that the two worst offenders of the expenses saga have now left the government might be taken on board by Cameron – if he could get past his own difficulties with regards to his mortgage.
Clarence suggests we cut to the chase this evening and do not follow this particular reading with any more of a lengthy pre-amble than necessary. Focussing on what the cards say is important for balance and information, and there is still a fourth part to this series to publish by the end of tonight so that tomorrow (I have an appointment with a hypnotherapist tomorrow morning and have to work in the afternoon) we can clear the decks for breaking news.
READING for the LABOUR PARTY for the EUROPEAN ELECTIONS on 4 June 2009
Situation – IV Swords, reversed
C: Labour finds itself being thrown out of a sleep into which it was reclining before the expenses scandal really broke open. The sleep was not that of a party which could afford to rest on its laurels; it was more a trance which kept it focussed on delivering as a government and avoiding the worst dangers of disruptive politics. This scandal has been deadly for Labour as well as for the main opposition, but at the moment the focus is fixed on the government and Cabinet difficulties, so the deadly machinery represented by the pattern of swords on this card is cutting deep into the party’s electoral chances. However the card does not represent insoluble problems, rather just the deep and painful realisation that it is sliding precariously down the slope towards oblivion.
Labour party nationally – Page of Cups
C: Interestingly enough, like the Star card we drew for Hazel Blears’ resignation, and mirroring the card of the day, the Page of Cups shows a humble and eager to learn party trying to make up for lost time. The Page of Cups facilitates learning on an emotional level, and the attempts, however graceless and blunt, to face up to festering problems and putting them right. The idea that Blears and Smith have resigned leaving the government in chaos is one thing, but the resignations pave the way for better man management, fewer bent politicians in office and certainly a party which perhaps realises that these women are more toxic within the Cabinet than outside it as they will be very shortly. Contrition and humility produce a party who understand they are on the back foot and are accepting advice from the press and from the people who still genuinely want to support them.
Labour leadership – The Star, reversed
C: Brown is living on borrowed time right enough, and the dangers here seem to be that the lack of optimism can suddenly cloud over any depth of vision within which Brown seems to have in abundance. He knew, for example, last year, that circumstances in the global markets would soon conspire to make a strong PM with economic clout more attractive – “no time for a novice” resonated for a while during the winter when this was needed. He may still make it to conference – someone on Newsnight last night said that only inertia prevents a leadership challenge before then – and then turn it round again as the economy improves. But this is underestimating the power of the expenses scandal to continue throughout the summer and the potential it has to wreck any such plans he might have had before that to revive his flagging fortunes. Cameron has a similar problem because of the extent to which he himself is implicated in it, but Gordon’s government is currently on the agenda and being ripped open. The Star reversed does mean that hope is still there, but it is rapidly running out, and without hope there can be no recovery this year to match last year’s bounce-back.
Labour party in the field – The Lovers, reversed
C: The Labour Party has been tarnished and tarnishes itself by being scared of the electorate. We do not yet know the mood in the Conservative Party, but the Lovers card, which is quite a common pull at the moment, suggests the lack of faith in partnerships on a grand scale, and a lack of decision-making and context for the party to operate within.
Projected result – The High Priestess
C: There is a depth to which Labour know the result and are keeping their own projections quiet while people speculate. They are intuitive enough as a party to know what people think of them and intelligent enough to know how to respond to people’s concerns. To the extent that this card is good, the result will be good enough to keep things from going under entirely. There will be no general election or leadership challenges under the auspices of this card, because the anticipation in the party has reached levels to which they have already read the writing on the wall and Brown has acted accordingly with his more corrupt minions. The result will not shock anyone, and thus building has already begun to reconstruct the Cabinet in order to go forward afterwards; though for how long given other portents I don’t know.
Actual voting behaviour – Queen of Pentacles, reversed
C: The reversed Queen is damaging enough but represents the distrust of the administration as a whole and is based on the foundations of the expenses scandal more than anything else. The reversed Queen could also be seen as the end of Jacqui Smith and Hazel Blears, both powerful administrative figures who lacked the probity or charisma to survive this year but could in the future have a potential to return to the front line under new management once their penance is served. People will vote on this line, and the events of the past few days have damaged the Conservatives (with Hague’s shambolic performance on Newsnight and Cameron’s mortgage hitting the Sunday papers), so holding off a Swords card in this position might staunch a real exodus to the opposite side as opposed to towards minor parties easily excluded from a general election.
Owlperson: Clarence, from my point of view this is right but you have to remember that this Cabinet will not see the General Election in. You and I know that this represents the end of the two senior Cabinet women, and the short-term view of the electorate in that respect, but beyond tomorrow the possible scenarios are all under the auspices of the Devil, which means the danger and excitement – and potential for cataclysmic surprise – are all more likely than a smooth progression out of this scandal and towards a potential election. Although I cannot reveal who I am in real life, being only a channel of someone participating in the situation at the moment (more to protect Louise from unwanted cease-and-desist letters than because of personal modesty), I know the situation from the inside and know that the situation will only intensify as the summer draws on, not dissipate.
Difficulties – VII Swords
C: A play with surprises, as a well-known spread is called. The Seven of Swords dictates an unexpected surprise – a rout is not what I really mean, because everyone is predicting a rout – but this surprise may be in Labour’s favour than in their disfavour. A tactical stroke is able to save them from a proper pasting, just as the projections on the night last time round were putting Labour and Conservative neck-and-neck but the actual results brought a clear lead of 27 (Con) seats to 19 (Lab), for Howard’s Tories. This could be to do with the march of the smaller parties, or it could be that Labour have already reached the bedrock of their support, or that the Tories lose seats too. Whatever, the Seven suggests that a factor hitherto unconsidered enters play at the last moment. We will not know until Sunday what this is, but this is Labour’s fight to win or lose.
Solutions – The Chariot, reversed
C: Labour need to play down expectations. In some ways, they do that masterfully – witness the way they put it about that they believed they would lose Glenrothes, only to win it very safely. This may be what they are doing, though at least part of the danger here is real and not just emanating from their spin doctors, and talking themselves down in order to hide good results from canvassing has a danger inherent in it that they will put off otherwise faithful supporters because they look like a losing ticket. It is evident that they will have a difficulty regaining some sort of momentum and they need to look at other methods of campaigning rather than blind charging ahead. John Major’s soap box springs to mind.
Owlperson: I agree but it is also a lessening of momentum in general and the possibilities that what was convincingly faked in Glenrothes is now utterly genuine. No-one in my experience campaigning is saying they will vote for either party and they are not hostile to me – because I’m one of the people who hasn’t abused their expenses – but they are giving my party the bum’s rush and going for a third party choice, either LibDem or fringe. I can’t see Labour regaining any momentum after this or rebounding to any extent, but the comfort for them is that we are both in the same boat. Dejected Mr Munro finally realises the game is up if he has not yet announced his retirement from the council: he may know a lot more than we do as well. We shall see what this means.
Outcome of the result on the night – II Wands, reversed
C: This stands for the stagnation rather than decline of energies and actually it’s not a bad omen, despite the reversal. It represents a carriage stuck in the mud, rather than anything catastrophic. I think the result will be bad but the expectations will have been worse, just like the Conservative result last time round in 2004. It will ruin any chances of a Labour revival before the autumn, and as Owlperson is at pains to point out, that may decide the shape and form of the next government as the summer boils on.
Outcome for the foreseeable future – IV Wands
C: A counter-intuitive result in that structure and stability have been re-established in this card and some form of balance achieved. A delicate structure is formed – it can be knocked down again very quickly – but the equally bad result projected for the Conservatives is likely to make Labour look like they have had a lucky escape.
Outcome for the long-term – Ace of Wands
C: This is what Owlperson is trying to say – that the energies are only accumulating because of the expenses saga rather than dissipating. The direction and focus of this card is dangerous if what looks like it could happen is bad. Labour cannot win – that is certain – but the landscape will be transformed and overhauled before any party can truly say they are onto a winner. For Labour this looks like a gun pointed at them, but both of us guides know that it is both parties which will be in the firing line. Clarity and focus are provided here – but at what cost and to whom, as yet only God knows.
