Parliament of Fowls

Two senior Tories have turned on Cameron over his policy of withdrawal from the EPP.

Lord Patten and Lord Brittan have attacked the alliance with the far-right Polish and Czech parties instead of more mainstream Conservatives within the parliament.

IDS withdrew the Tories from the EPP and Michael Howard took them back again. (Sounds so far like the Grand Old Duke of York). Foxy has been threatening this for years - it was the subject of one of William Hague's junkets to Brussels in early 2006 - but has apparently never actually done anything (sounds familiar). The "BNPski" parties in the Parliament may be less federalist than the Christian Democrats, but the problem for me is that without engaging with Europe, Cameron cannot hope to govern the country effectively. A governing party must be willing to put country before party - as Cameron himself admits in the Telegraph Q&A session he's just done - but this is just taking the party further to the right on all fronts. If the party cannot work with European institutions as they currently are, how do they expect to reform them?

It might not prompt a Southampton moment for Cameron - the focus is not as intently on Europe as it was in 2004 - but it is the first time for many years I've seen Europe cause divisions in the party, and since the attack comes through a major newspaper it might just help expose Foxy as the fraud he is - or it might make him come up with some sensible and concrete policies. We can, perhaps, but hope for either outcome.

A reading, then.

Situation - The Devil, reversed

This has the potential to be a big blow to Cameron, who has done well because he has assembled a going concern in the party and escaped major criticism for so long that I thought the party was dead from the neck downward. The Devil is intensified and his negative effect on proceedings here throws the cat among the pigeons when Cambo can least afford it. Jerrold Donington - my father-confessor of a spiritual counsellor - tells me also that the Devil represents a surprise element. In his reversed form, this is quite shocking indeed.

Appearance to the media - VI Cups, reversed

A gentle consensus is shattered and the Europhiles who supported Michael Howard - indeed, as Owlperson points out, he got more support from the "grandees" (at least those in Major's cabinet) because he was of their generation, whereas IDS and Hague they regarded as mere upstarts - are sharper in tone with Cameron when it comes to the Euro-crunch. Although they have waited until now to make their voices heard, the media may have calculated this point in the campaign allows the maximum effect on polling day without giving Cameron enough time to respond properly to Patten and Brittan's concerns; the media realises this and drops the bomb now rather than in a week's time - or a week ago when Cambo looked stronger on the expenses scandal than he has done since.

Appearance to the public - Knight of Pentacles

It may not matter much, since this card suggests the impact will be limited despite the cool timing, but it does actually start a small, genteel rebellion against Cameron's isolationist policy. The quest here - Knight cards often represent someone adventurous enough to strike out with a general aim in sight, and experiment with - here at least - the public mood - is worthwhile (hence the Pentacles) as the Tories here risk looking unable to govern properly within or with Europe and risk marginalising themselves in the hope that they can remain ideologically pure rather than like a coherent government in waiting. The quest may yet falter, but it is on the move.

Appearance to the Conservative party grassroots - II Swords, reversed

To the grassroots - those outside the Westminster village - the balance has been disrupted again overr the same issue and this is dangerous at a point where the Tories have created a fragile coalition based on ruling the country rather than overruling themselves (or threatening to do so - Owlperson). With this balance overturned, things could still get choppy even during and after polling day.

Appearance within the leadership - Death, reversed

This is what the current leadership most feared - that the grandees would not let them promote this agenda because of the desire not to rock the boat prior to the general election. No such luck. They nearly managed it - but not quite. They face the prospect of splits opening in the party at a time at which it is extremely vulnerable over the expenses scandal, with most of the more ridiculous and complicated claims coming from the Tory benches. The leadership is in denial, and this denial needs to be confronted - with all the messy results that manifested in 2004 possible and maybe even likely.

Appearance to the grandees in question - The Lovers, reversed

The situation has got intolerable enough such that the grandees had to overturn the cosy consensus of denial which had built up over Europe. A constructive approach from Michael Howard did not draw their fire and he survived because of it.. Cameron's problem is that in an attempt to manipulate the party into doing his will elsewhere he has had to appease it in this area, not understanding the isolation he would face in Europe as a result. Thus the grandees - government men themselves - have allowed themselves to descend from on high and disrupt the cosy cartel within the party leadership. Another dangerous major arcana trump for Cameron.

Internal appearance and issues within the party itself - The World

Here this card promotes the idea of a certain fate and destiny that the party has to face up to before it can continue along the happy road into government. It is made to face up to what is going on with the European side of these elections, neglected up until now because of the towering expenses inferno. It hits at a bad time - and hits the party where it hurts, or where it should hurt. It allows the party to confront the issue, but the happy side of the World is dragged down by the preponderance of reversed Major Arcana cards in this sequence such as to dent the release and ecstasy that this card normally represents.

Roots of the situation - VII Wands, reversed

The reversed Seven shows issues which, having been left to fester and blindly ignored, have come back to, in common parlance, "bite you on the bum". This was inevitable, but I reckoned it was unlikely because of the dominance of the Tories in the polls. Not so any more. The Tories' lack of discussion on Europe will return to haunt the party again and again until it stops taking the easy way out and acquiescing to the seductive isolationist agenda. It will never regain any sort of power before this issue is dealt with. Period.

Seeds sown by the situation - Page of Pentacles, reversed

Still no succour for anyone involved. This card of growth and genuine "green shoots of recovery" in a reversed aspect means that hard work is wasted - the seeds fall on stony ground. A disruption to the game now undoes three and a half years' worth of precarious balance on this issue because of the overriding idea - "power at any costs". There is no time to reverse the policy, and this leads to a poor harvest in the end.

Advice to Cameron - King of Wands, reversed

There is no time to do anything - the King of Wands, usually so nimble and quick to strike down opposition, is unable to think on his feet on this occasion. Cameron must stand his ground - he can't reverse his policy now. And it may not be enough to do anything very much for his other policies because even Simon Heffer has called them fatuous. With his classic manoeuvrability dented, he must think very hard about what to do next.

Warning to Cameron - King of Swords, reversed

What Cambo says now is crucial - overreaction would see him damaged in public, and underreaction would open wounds regardless of what he really wants. He is cool under pressure - so cool as to be frozen - but this card suggests here he should avoid rash words and avoid a Southampton moment by perhaps allowing the grandees to say their piece and leave the stage. The card, however, carries an ominous warning from his predecessor that it is difficult to escape the debate of Europe for too long and still look like a credible prime minister.

Direction - IX Swords, reversed

This can only get worse. A storm like this can be weathered easily in normal times, but this card is like an impacted tooth - the pain won't go away and won't just be wiggled out of position like one which has just died. This card suggests temporary difficulties becoming more permanent, and pain from this is bound to follow, even after June 4.

Solution - Page of Cups

There is a solution to this, and it is to be accepting of other viewpoints and to resist the temptation to smear or talk down the grandees' concerns. It is incumbent now on Cameron to think about what he is doing and learn to risk his party's wrath by engaging with Europe and saying no to the fascist isolationists who make up his proposed new grouping. Will he do this? Are bears catholic? Does the Pope shit in the woods?

Outcome - Justice, reversed

The issue is not given the consideration it requires, and thus justice here works against those who bury their head in the sand and pretend a fundamental part of Britain's foreign alliances does not exist. The potential of this card is to ruin Cameron's day in another, and potentially devastating manner. Not before time, in my view.

I have to work early tomorrow, and will be out in the evening at a magic-comedy show at the local village hall, so am doing tomorrow's card of the day today.

The X Cups, reversed was very stubborn and so this is tomorrow's prediction: sunny, with a few scattered showers.

Things are getting very tense now the European elections are fast approaching, and there is an upset in the general propaganda that the two main parties are peddling, along with Nick Clegg's anger, only slightly less faked because of what his MPs have been up to. I do sense a slight lull in this over the weekend, but only a slight one - there are still more people to come and another resignation has followed tonight: Elliot Morley is to step down from Parliament after his little altercations with the media and fees office.

This card may also have to do with the obscene amount of "golden goodbye" to be paid out to the miscreants who have jumped ship. Although Owlperson notes that it is not easy to wind things up without assistance, particularly in the event of being voted out rather than just retiring, but he still admits there is a deep need from the public for vengeance and that those who have actually been found out to have misused the system should have their assets sequestered to pay for this golden goodbye during the period prior to the general election. Those who have merely made unethical claims should have these allowances paid by the state and should not actually be allowed to claim for them. This needs to be formalised, but there is a unique chance that this is possible at the moment, particularly if Labour and the Conservatives suffer heavily in Thursday's polls.

Here, in the reversed Ten, the cups are running dry and the potential for anyone to make any personal gain from this scandal, whether in the sense of personal egotism (David Cameron, Esther Rantzen) or propagandistic benefit (the PR enthusiasts banging away about a non-sequitur depriving the public of the discussion of just what should now be done, perhaps to prosecute those who may be guilty of outright fraud), is running out.

A brilliant idea came to me the other day - Jacqui Smith's bath plug. Rather missed now the comedy aspect of her porn films on expenses has passed into this terrible, terrible 9/11 scenario, someone really did pull the plug on all of this.

Gurgle. 

Another Downfall parody video from before the expenses scandal, during Smeargate.

Many a true word is spoken - or dubbed on - in jest.

You can truly never have enough Downfall parodies, can you?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNrBqrNhdGU

Trying not to offend anyone who could be offended, someone has put more subtitles onto the scene in Downfall where Adolf Hitler finds out that the grand counteroffensive has failed.

No comment, but it was as ROFL as any of these takes on the masterful film which, had it been done in English or dubbed, would never have provided so much entertainment long after the original stopped resonating so much.

Watch at your own risk. Owlperson has sensitive issues with Hitler, so in deference to him I'm not going to try and embed it, but enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHbNPlDAUwE

Bill Cash is the next person in the spotlight, and it seems it is Cash by name, cash by nature. Poor man. My uncle is the former Tory mayor (and current Independent councillor) in his Stone constituency, and has had some choice words for Cash in the past - they would be unprintable if Uncle Phil used such language himself. Owlperson concurs with his assessment and is happy to see the usual suspects come trooping through the cash-for-just-about-everything lobby. David Cameron says Cash has serious questions to answer if, I'm sure, he can be bothered to ask them. Letitia Cash was featured in an article about Tory women five and a half years ago which inspired me to buy a belted mackintosh which, like my Tory aspirations at the moment, is missing the belt that held it together and rather makes the old Mary Whitehouse Experience character Milky Milky look suave and dapper.

To even the scoreline a bit, Rosie Winterton is the next Labour scalp here.

The political card of the day is a Major Arcana "trump", which signifies big movements, although I feel this means for the moment behind the scenes rather than in front of the press.

Justice

The Justice card differs from the nominally similar Judgement card in being man-made arbitration and its logical conclusion rather than divine intervention or outside force imposing an ajudication by force. Justice here means that those people who are in control have their say, and decide on the basis of clear sight and fair play. The card depicts the familiar figure of Justice - a stern woman with sword and scales - with the only difference from the modern depiction being she is unhindered by the customary blindfold. This is an earlier viewing of the figure of Justice; the blindfold is a modern interpretation of what Justice means.

An illustration of this concept and its symbolism is the figure which adorns the gates of Dublin Castle (in Dublin, Ireland, natch...though since Leeds Castle is actually in Kent, it doesn't necessarily "go without saying"). The castle was the home of the Viceroy of Ireland during the period after Cromwell's seizure of the island and the period in which it was by and large independent but under the suzerainty of Great Britain (that changed in the early 1800s when Ireland was fully subjugated to Westminster and not released from that grip until the establishment of the Free State in the 1920s). It was the home of justice in Ireland - not just judicial justice but of the wider concept of government by the British puppet state under the "Kingdom of Ireland" and then as part of the union after home rule was abolished. Correspondingly, the figure of Justice stands looking out over the courtyard. She is as depicted on this card - without a blindfold, and with her head approvingly looking in the direction of the palace court itself.

This is always taken by Irish nationalists to represent the notion that British justice, under whose auspices the figure was erected, was partial. The lack of a blindfold, both on the statuette and on the card in front of me, suggests that Justice entertains more than should enter normal due process of law. Juries are selected in this country on the basis of not knowing the defendant or plaintiff (Owlperson was a lawyer, he should know) and thus can arbitrate from a completely neutral point of view. However, the difference in this figure led some to regard the statue as symbolic in a direct manner that justice in Ireland was partial - to the British monarchy - and until something was done to re-establish not only home rule but full independence, then true impartial justice could never be done.

However this concept of Justice here leaves out the idea that actually, Justice in this sense cannot be done unless we know all the facts; unless we can see the evidence before us. It is no surprise that this card falls on the day the Labour NEC "Star Chamber" meets - in secret, of course, but then this is a party matter and would be hampered by the scrutiny of the press who have their own separate agenda, largely involving the downfall of Labour and of the Prime Minister. Brown in my opinion can do a lot more thorough justice than Cameron can, largely because Cameron is too reliant on ad hoc systems played out in public with a semblance of a panel constructed with him and the whips, whilst the Labour NEC is constructed such that the membership of the party is represented in various forms and although controversies have arisen in the past (with the 1997 contest hotly fought by Peter Mandelson and Ken Livingstone largely the only time it has ever really hit the headlines; I voted, by the way, in that contest and voted for both of them) it has largely been a body ignored by the press. Labour's bureaucratic notion of justice therefore suggests that actually an unhindered justice is taking place here, and while perhaps the Irish nationalists may have had a point, the figure without a blindfold is actually a more historically important symbol of Justice than that with a blindfold (oops, almost wrote "blingfold", which would be interesting to see...maybe a spangly one which the contestants on The Apprentice could sell for us on QVC...).

Owlperson notes that the Tories do things differently, preferring ad hoc controls on their party and debate. However, I put it to him that this has often backfired in the past. Although I often praise him for other reasons, I remember the seeming absurdity of what Michael Howard said to the party conference as Shadow Foreign Secretary in 1998.

Last week, there was a debate on Europe at the Labour Party conference - behind closed doors!

If you hold your debates in secret, you must have something to hide!

Madam Chairman, we - we have nothing to hide. We are confident to be leading the debate.

The Tories were leading the debate, indeed, but the chaos and devastation of the mid to late 1990s was such that perhaps the European debates should have been conducted in private - behind closed doors - and a consensus reached, at least at leadership level, to avoid the damaging divisions which ultimately - and sadly, when he had moved into a position of proposing his own moderate Euro-scepticism as an alternative to the reeking Europhobia which has come back to taunt the party with the prospect of sharing a group with the "BNPski" parties of Eastern Europe - damaged his own leadership in 2004 because he could not come to grips with his own party's wilful determination to have that debate in public and not in private. Where Cambo falls down is not having that debate at all and giving us potential Conservative voters the worst of all possible worlds.

It was also symptomatic, Owlperson tells me, of other divisions in the Tory Party at the time, and cannot be taken in isolation as Labour is as equally split by Europe as the Tories, but Labour managed to avoid the debate or subsume it into internal party cohesion because they were - and still are - broadly united on other fronts. The Tories lack a single unifying element to their ideology which keeps them together during rough times. Labour have the explicit commitment to social justice which keeps them focussed on achieving and maintaining power, and this to a certain extent still holds the party together long after it should have collapsed, as the Tories did in 1992-1997, into a dysfunctional, squabbling mess. No amount of media manipulation or fire on the leadership has broken Labour ranks, even at Brown's nadir last summer. Johnson too might have done a Miliband and fired the first salvo too soon coming out in favour of PR, and Owlperson says the last person Labour will turn to in this crisis is Alan Johnson, who has no ridiculous expense claims but a skeleton lurking further back in his closet which will see him destroyed too. There will be few survivors from this who are currently on any frontbench; OP is saying he is working hard to save people on both Labour and Tory benches but that those who take over will by and large come from the middle ranks, and former cabinets, as anyone inside the current Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet are doomed to the same oblivion as their leaderships.

Returning to the main issue, Labour's careful deliberation may deliver more lasting and concrete justice but the Queen of Wands, as a clarifying card, suggests that a lack of control over the situation in general may mean they are only now able to respond or react to changing circumstances, and not even being in full control over the responses to events means that the full extent of Labour's response to the crisis may be to exacerbate it rather than bring it under human management.

What Owlperson and other spirit guides feel - if we can bring them down to earth a bit and make them focus on actual events rather than the view from upstairs, though I get the feeling they are enjoying this as much or even more than we are - is that this is a shift to do with 2012 and to do with another version of 1688 - and that the expenses scandal is a tip of an iceberg, and the catalyst for a really destructive shake-up of the political system. It is not something that can be palmed off by the perpetrators with PR or their own favourite solution (government by SMS being the best Cambo can come up with), it will need the sheep separated from the goats and the ability to sort Parliament out, sort the government out, and bring lasting, genuine Justice to bear. Nick Clegg's proposal that there should be no summer recess until this is sorted is fairly prescient (makes you wonder what he's been taking) and although I consider his article in the Grauniad yesterday to be just another partisan manipulation of justice and judgement, it gets close to the truth of what will be going on this summer and what we now have to do to re-enact 1688.

In summary - Justice takes many forms, but here she works with the facts and figures, with her eyes open, not blindfolded by cynical partisanship. Expect intense fireworks, but only after the deliberation has today taken place.