Simon Heffer, as we all know, is deciding whether to challenge Sir Alan Haselhurst, just like Esther Rantzen declaring her candidacy against her nemesis Margaret Moran. Presumably he understands that would cost him his Conservative Party membership, if indeed he has one. Owlperson can't tell me whether he does or not, but I'm looking forward to him declaring his candidacy and facing potential expulsion from the party that he may or may not be a member of - and if he is, and if he wins a seat, whether Cameron unctuously co-opts him as he did David Davis' campaign last summer.
So will he really do so? And how would he do? Let's ask the cards.
Past - Simon Heffer - The Star
Heffer has always seen himself as a potential politician, and his dislike of Cameron comes out distinctly in his articles (though unfortunately this makes him a useless barometer for my purposes of measuring the health of the party). Regardless, he has previously had faith in the political system, and has always played the game through the ordinary channels. Going it alone might be difficult, but at least he has a commitment to core Conservative values, and would not be a bad choice for Saffron Walden as a deep Tory heartland constituency. Owlperson is more convinced that he is at least genuinely ambitious for political office rather than Rantzen's egomania being a particular handicap when it comes to working with the machine.
Past - Sir Alan - Judgement, reversed
Sir Alan has evaded justice this time, and although he has fulfilled Heffer's initial request by paying back the £12,000 misclaimed money for gardening assistance, there is a possibility Heffer might still stand. Evasion of justice is a feature of a lot of these cases: the most effective judgement must be at the ballot box and those who doubt they will be able to look their constituents in the eye have already done the decent thing. However Haselhurst, once upon a time tipped to be the next Speaker, cannot outrun Judgement for long, and Heffer might still stand despite the money being paid back.
Present - Simon Heffer - Knight of Wands, reversed
Heffer might well be pulling back from declaring his candidature. It looks as if his initial condition on Haselhurst has been fulfilled, and the reversed knight signifies here the ending or abortion of a quest. The Wands, by their nature, are not serious cards; they are flimsy and superficial and Heffer largely proposed himself in order to bounce Haselhurst into repayment. He may still find a political outlet - and follow in the footsteps of Boris Johnson; Owlperson will not rule anything out - but for the moment it looks as if he will not actually need to stand.
Present - Sir Alan - The Lovers, reversed
Sir Alan is not liked, and can find cold comfort in Heffer's refusal, as yet, to declare his candidature. He may still find the going rough, and the constituency going sour on him even if he keeps his place as the official Conservative candidate, but this is now a matter for him alone rather than duel between him and a Tory-aligned independent.
Future - Simon Heffer - King of Cups, reversed
Never say never, Owlperson is warning. However, this card, while not particularly comely, suggests Heffer will involve himself more in active service and less in onlooking, and may have been symptomatic of a desire to step forward as a more active participant. The King of Cups is a deep, emotional commander; he is Cameron's significator in my old Four Kings leadership spread (Blair being the King of Wands, Brown the King of Pentacles, and the King of Swords the potential insurgent who might yet emerge to derail the cosy oligarchy in British politics this term round; one must always keep a wild card handy because predictions are often rather off...I have a collection of "famous last words" dating back to Kinnock and Thatcher fighting out the 1991 general election...), but here he is more active than Cameron, and more strident than the laid-back Water king. (Another King of Cups is Ken Clarke, another is Barack Obama, while Boris Johnson is a King-of-Cups in waiting if he can transform the buffoon image into genuine statesmanship.) Heffer goes from commentator to action-man, but may not actually stand in this particular seat at this particular time.
Future - Sir Alan - VIII Cups, reversed
Sir Alan remains sat on Saffron Walden until the next election, but may have missed his chance to go out with dignity, to recognise that his time has passed and stand aside in favour of a younger candidate without the taint of the Parliament of Manure. (Ordure! Ordure!) This card in this aspect represents a stubborn refusal to move on, move up, move out or move over, and he will pay the price in the end.
Result of candidacy decision - Page of Pentacles, reversed
A potential political career is nipped in the bud, and Heffer will find other soil in which to plant his further ambitions. He has ideals rather than ideas, and may not be famous enough in the outside world - unlike Rantzen - to have the profile needed to clean up in Saffron Walden. I may yet be wrong - this card also suggests he currently has a seed to plant and just needs to find the right soil, and Owlperson says if he had the decision to make over candidacies, he would offer Heffer a safe seat somewhere else because of his character and ability to do the job, say, of a culture minister, without the idiocy that came with Johnson's disastrous first foray into political office. So right person, wrong time.
Result of election in Saffron Walden - VII Cups, reversed
The illusions of the electorate as to the probity of their safe Conservative MP are shattered and they now have a choice between someone - and someone else. If Haselhurst lasts the distance to the election (clarifying for this, the X Cups, reversed suggests maybe not) then there is a possibility that he may not survive even if he is opposed by a candidate without the profile even of Simon Heffer. The seat is a target for independent attention, and there might be a vacancy for another independent to rock the boat sooner rather than later.
