To ignore the BNP at this stage is too dangerous to both main parties and the Liberal Democrats (who are the next victim of the Torygraph on the rampage), and offers up the spectre of Southampton – where the Tories, trying desperately to sweep UKIP under the carpet essentially destroyed their progress towards an election win in 2005, or more probably about 250-70 seats. So is this too – now that the damage has been done to both main parties – Cameron’s Southampton moment? And who will benefit more? Labour, because the BNP will take Tory votes away, or the Tories, because Labour will be fighting the BNP in their heartlands and allow them through the middle?
Let’s see, shall we? This is a Wisdom of Avalon spread, so with the book giving more positive, affirmative spins on the cards, I’ll do it without the meanings written in the book to get a more equivocal slant on the issues as I did this morning with Lord Tebbit’s interventions.
Situation
The Queen: “Woman, fertility, feminine power, sexuality, friendships.”
The Queen here suggests that the situation is ripe and pregnant with possibilities and also fraught with danger that the BNP has found an unusually fertile ground for its message. It has also prepared and patiently waited for this moment rather than, like UKIP, angling for its position over the years, messing around with its leadership and being damaged by splinter groups such as Veritas which largely did for the party’s admittedly small prospects at the last election. The BNP has been more careful to incubate and cultivate support and ground itself in the localities where it is most active rather than reach beyond its grasp into the national realm. Thus it believes its time has come without too much fuss and bother previous to this moment.
BNP public impact on Labour
The Wind Faery: “Thoughts, words, intellectual analysis.”
The BNP has forced Labour into a defence of its principles and challenges them on grounds of the presence of a socialistic alternative. The party has an appeal to northern voters, and a stronghold in the north as an alternative version of socialism with a racist and quasi-fascist bent to it which is more corporatist than neo-liberal. It is fighting on Labour’s turf where the Conservatives still daren’t go. So Labour are having to think hard about convincing people with arguments as to why they should reject this seductive social-ism, rather than being able to rely on using the party against the Tory opponents like it was able to do with UKIP at the last round of Euro-elections.
BNP public impact on the Conservatives
Partnership.
The Tories are facing a different challenge – how to appeal to potential BNP voters while not being led down the same avenue of racism and squalid xenophobia. The Tories are already uncertain about their position in Europe and have little option – other than rejoining the EPP – other than to collaborate with European variants of the BNP if they want any say in the European Parliament that befits their standing as the largest British delegation in Strasbourg. The BNP could be used against Labour in the north, but like in Scotland where the second party is now the SNP, the Tories cannot gain from a third party stealing votes from them in areas which will be crucial to a general election victory, so they must resist the temptation to see them as a convenient battering ram in Labour’s northern provinces and start actively convincing the public to vote Conservative rather than Labour or BNP.
BNP public impact on the Liberal Democrats
The Merlin [sic] – “Alchemy, justice, balance.”
The Liberal Democrats have historically gained perhaps proportionately more from Labour’s distress over the past few elections than the Tories have, particularly again in areas where the BNP is likely to pick up seats. They too risk the prospect of having to use the BNP against Labour, but here there is much more ability to fight the BNP on territory where they can do much better than either Labour or the Conservatives. Balance and justice can be used here to gain from Labour’s problems and they can justly position themselves as a better alternative than the BNP for northerners’ votes. Thus they stand again to gain from Labour’s problems, or at least maintain their representation in the face of the onslaught of the problematic last few weeks and months.
Underlying reality for Labour
Burden.
Labour have the burden of proving that they are still competent enough to govern and win and maintain their standing in the European Parliament even if they cannot improve it. If they still control the north, as recent council elections prove, then they must show that this quiet support can still hold up under the spotlight of a national election. The burden is such that the national picture depends on their ability to hold on to what they have; it is a difficult task in the current climate but the collapse in areas where the BNP threaten them is in the Conservative vote, so this is a burden that is comparatively light compared to their old adversaries.
Underlying reality for the Conservatives
The Stag: “Pride, leadership.”
Pride does come before a fall, but this suggests that Conservative fortunes can be improved and renewed by strong, solid leadership. Not a lot of that around at the moment – Cameron has all the air of a man with his hand in the biscuit tin promising to spit out what he and his Shadow Cabinet have already swallowed – but we all here at the Parliament of Fowls live in hope that something might be shown to challenge and not just ignore the BNP.
Underlying reality for the Liberal Democrats
The Grail Knight: “Romance, illusion, seeking the sacred.”
The Liberals usually gain from situations like this, so their campaign can and will continue to unfold understanding that they are a beneficiary of the process (as today’s Times poll shows) rather than a victim.
Roots of the situation
The Owl: “Deception, wisdom.”
Reading the words on the card, deception comes from the image the BNP has projected – which is deceptively potent at the moment – and the wisdom suggests that the threat has been noted soon enough that the party leaders could begin to formulate strategies to avoid the disaster that UKIP wrought on the 2004 round of elections. In this place the Owl suggests and promises a more controlled and directed approach than the desperation faced by the Tories in particular when the threat from UKIP manifested itself so quickly and so devastatingly in the last two weeks of the campaign. This time the threat has, owlishly, been seen coming and can at least be dealt with if anyone has the moral strength at the moment to do so.
Seeds sown by the situation
The Wasp: “Anger, retaliation, jealousy.”
The problem seems to be that the bankruptcy of the process is now threatening some sort of retaliation and overreaction to the threat which does seem to suggest that a Southampton moment could still be on the agenda. Although the owl saw it coming, there is no way at the moment either main party is going to be in any fit shape to deal with the anger of the voters, and the BNP as an insurgent is poised to benefit from this disastrous situation without drastic measures applied to drastic times.
Wild card – UKIP intervention
The Cat: “Independence, healthy boundaries.”
UKIP are keeping themselves distant from both parliament (although they do, in Bob Spink, have an MP now) and the current debate and keeping their campaign sotto voce. They do this not from any common cause with the BNP – except again as an insurgent, in tandem with the Greens – but from a need to protect their own MEPs’ electoral interests and keep their own moral ground safe. They stand not necessarily to gain – their profile is much lower and they were not able to keep their 2004 momentum going – but to hold things steady and hope for a big anti-establishment backlash.
Words said against the BNP
Love.
Wherever Love is, there is action to heal and unite, and although these are mere words, it does help that the BNP’s ideology is distasteful and anti-Love enough to make sure that there is a common cause against them. UKIP made a big impact because they resisted the lure of casual racism. Whether the BNP can do the same depends on the modernisation of the message, and it is significant that this means that the threat may be a paper one – and that by the time of the actual poll their appeal will have diminished significantly enough because the other parties can at least maintain that they may be greedy – but at least they are not racist.
Actions taken against the BNP
Forgiveness.
This tells me that there is more to come, and that the campaign is not over for the main parties. They have time to mend the broken relationship with the public, through application of strength and the political will to combat the BNP. Some papers saw UKIP as an acceptable alternative last time (the Daily Express went from championing Howard six weeks before the 2004 poll to advocating a vote for UKIP on the day itself) but no-one would dare to suggest a vote for the BNP as a vote against sleaze and corruption. This is a potent weapon as the media this time is united against the BNP, and although the forgiveness may not be of the main parties, there are still acceptable protest votes that don’t involve poisonous xenophobia and outright bigotry.
Results
The Butterfly: “Beauty.”
Words and actions combine to find a solution that involves a challenge to the BNP while still emphasising the wrongdoing of the current political landscape. This points to more of a transcendent occurrence rather than a deadly blow: a solution found that enhances, not destroys, the political process.
Direction
Wealth.
The situation now seems dire and the BNP challenge seems as much a credible alternative than the current self-destructing establishment. But the changes now tend in the direction of enrichment and enhancement – there are some changes brewing, given the dangerous omen of the Wasp, but ultimately the situation improves in a direction that is currently unintelligible but ultimately solvable for those worried that the BNP will be attractive to those who despair of the current hysteria gripping Westminster.
Solution
The Swan: “Transformation, trusting the psychic gifts.”
In the context of politics, I said that the Swan is a symbol of masculine aggression and regal assertion; for those familiar with the tarot, this card for me corresponds to The Emperor in terms of authoritative power and potent actions. It also suggests that the solution is in the transformation of the political situation and the quick and rapid development of the parties’ current programmes. The politics has to end, and I suspect a return to policies would sort out who is the winner here. There is no longer any place for anyone without a direct and definite message, and if that means the Liberal Democrats top the poll, so be it.
Outcome
The Eagle: “Spirit, integrity, connection to the angelic realm.”
There is nothing now that can be solved with games or empty words, or smears, or counter-smears. These masculine cards demonstrate a solution, as yet unseen, that resolves and determines the direction for the next year, rather than continue the base pettiness of the Wasp which is merely feeding the BNP. The parties are serious about this – they have to be – but they are all variously discredited. Regardless, male power overcomes the seductive viper in the breast of the body politic, and here the winner will be the one which moves to solidy and substantiate the programme rather than continue the baiting and back-biting which has cost the process its general dignity and respectability. Nonetheless, it is possible and likely that politics will grow from this decomposing mulch, rather than just sink into it leaving the mulch to take over. I think Owlperson is trying to tell me what will happen, but I don’t think anyone reading this would be ready to listen or willing to believe it, so I will leave it to the next few weeks to unfold.
