The saga of Liam Fox’s continuing discontent with the Tory spending plans for defence goes on. The Mirror reports that he and Osborne are at loggerheads over commitments to various firms regarding contracts, suggesting splits opened last year (March 2008) are still open. Not surprisingly, Fox is a disgruntled leadership candidate, though any challenge would be punching severely above his weight and would not be welcomed by the party at large, not at the moment anyway. It’s also not a huge story, and obviously the Mirror, what with its massive splash a few weeks ago about Miss Whiplash and her four coked-up Tories, who are the publication of a book away from complete disaster. Allegedly, of course. But there is no smoke without fire – and this deserves scrutiny because it suggests problems later if the Tories can’t sort out a concrete budget on which their entire potential cabinet agrees.
Tory divisions are also always worth analysis...so here goes.
Situation.
The Hanged Man. You are at a life crossroads at which sacrifices and patience are needed if the right choices are to be made. Submit gracefully and all will be well. Life needs to be viewed from a fresh angle, and what may seem a total distraction to your plans may just take you in a fresh, creative direction. You may feel you are wasting time hanging around, but it will prove to be well worth your while.
In other words, although this may be a distraction, it exposes some kind of failings at the heart of Tory plans to spend less and the “fresh creative direction” may also be necessary to stop this being something that builds too much – too much for it to be confined to a left-wing tabloid trying to manufacture divisions. There may not be much here that could derail the Tories but there is a grain of truth in everything and the Tories need to sort this out before they find themselves hoisted – on their own petards.
1. Fox.
IX Wands. You enjoy well-earned success gained through honesty, hard work, and intelligence. However, troubles are brewing on the horizon, and you are soon likely to be tested to the very limits of your patience and ability. Take the time now to cultivate key allies, and check too that your finances are robust enough to cope with unexpected demands.
Fox is power-building here – trying to establish himself as a pivot point in power games and trying to cultivate allies who will assist him in any further power struggles by going over the heads of the rest of the Shadow Cabinet to appeal to traditional pro-defence Tory support. He is risking his own party’s future prosperity on short-term agitation, refusing to accept the end of a war (in the public’s and press’ eyes at least – it might give us crucial indication that all is not really so good in Tory territory) and building in the wrong direction – towards inevitable defeat rather than a solid win. Curious motivations but understandable if there really is a problem.
2. Osborne.
VIII Wands. The Eight indicates sudden progress that is possibly too fast for comfort, so try to slow things down a little and avoid over-hasty decisions that you might later regret. This is an exciting and well-starred time with travel, new business partnerships, and long-term romance all likely – just bear in mind that life is not always this easy, and plan for those rainy days.
Osborne needs as well to try and balance the needs of his party with expedient propaganda and current economic priorities. Defence is important to the Tory grassroots, and the Times analysis of the nature of the prospective parliamentary Conservative candidates suggests Fox may have some appeal if he plugs defence spending as a priority. Osborne probably has more public support than Fox does, but all the same, without party co-operation the Conservatives will not be able to call upon the foot-soldier resources to win the election outright. Even sites like Conservative Home have more right-wing tendencies than is common in the general public’s vision of the future; just because the Tories are currently more popular than Labour they cannot depend on the assent of the public for neglecting other areas of public spending to ring-fence defence. Osborne is on the right side here, but he is still risking the alienation of key supporters and key members of the Shadow Cabinet with axes to grind on other issues than just their own briefs. Owlperson confides that Fox would be doing this whatever his superficial portfolio, and is still smarting from being rejected in 2005, though he would not have been a more charismatic leader than his fellow Vulpes Vulpes.
3. Meeting point.
VI Pentacles. Financial success comes your way and justice demands that you pass the favour along. Just as others have taken a gamble on your talents, now it’s time for you to do the same, either by sponsoring some struggling aspirant or simply by sharing some of your profits with the less fortunate in the world.
Osborne will most likely accept that there is a pressing case to shore up any restless activists by giving Fox some sort of assurance that defence spending will be protected, but it will not be enough to satisfy the conflicting demands Fox merely exemplifies. There is some leeway for compromise but both men need to make sure these differences do not jeopardise party unity, nor do they unbalance any pretensions towards presenting the Tories as the friend of key services such as health and education.
4. Cameron.
The Emperor. The Emperor represents earthly power achieved through force of will, including war if necessary, though usually the card stands for stability, wealth, justice and the dominance of reason over emotion. It can represent an authority figure at work in the family, or the attitude necessary to carry plans through to fruition. Sometimes it’s necessary to put aside reflection and sympathy, and simply act.
Cameron needs to assert his authority over this to stop it mushrooming into full-blown splits, and it is fair to say that since it isn’t a huge story (yet) he can easily nip the problems here in the bud. Imposing authority on the situation won’t be difficult since Cameron can still muster enough of that kind of control in order to umpire this situation between squabbling underlings.
5. Underlying differences.
Ace of Wands ill-dignified. The reversed Ace warns of the danger of getting too attached to new beginnings that haven’t been thought through properly, of being unrealistic and not fully committed to your undertakings. There is a slim chance of success here, but only if you work at it.
The situation is volatile and unlikely to hold fast unless a real and lasting commitment is made to both sides of the argument – and for a party reliant on hope and expectations rather than hard facts and definite statements on policy and strategy that could mean there is a difficulty inherent in the situation which means instability rather than dynamism could result from any more creative tension within the party.
6. Underlying solutions.
The Lovers. Generally this card represents love and friendship on the worldly plane, marking a kindling or re-kindling of affection after troubles have been overcome. A major commitment could seriously affect the course of your life, and the climate is right for it to be a lasting and fruitful union. Complete honesty and trust are all that are needed to make the union work.
There needs to be a truce called and compromises made in order to safeguard the party from damaging splits. The party needs to bind itself into more than the sum of its parts, and merely parroting the latest doctrine on economic prudence (from “sharing the proceeds of growth” to the “age of austerity”) and putting down deeper roots into the realms of policy decisions which placate both public and party concerns and marry the two together as the husband and wife in this particular rendering of the card.
7. Roots of the situation.
Page of Swords. The Page of Swords represents someone who is adept at uncovering secrets and unravelling mysteries – a problem-solver, sleuth, and possibly even a spy. He can be trusted with secrets when given good reason. He is a good diplomat with a keen eye for creative compromise, able to act on his own initiative, and only give away what is necessary to achieve a goal. His taste for secrecy can be taken too far, however.
This encapsulates the attitude of the Tories to the general election in general and public spending in particular. Get through to the end and then reveal exact plans. Problem is, people want the King of Pentacles (administrative excellence, honest pro-activity, and balanced policy input and output) ruling the country, not the Page of Swords.
8. Seeds sown by the situation.
King of Pentacles. The King of Pentacles is wealthy, confident, commanding, inspiring and determined. He is conservative, hard-working, and leads by example. He is equivalent to Jupiter in astrology, the jovial ruler of the other planets and bounteous dispenser of wealth, which he naturally attracts. He is a loyal friend, wise counsellor, and a reliable, if cautious, partner.
And here he is. If the Tories can get this right, they can actually transcend the Page of Swords above and become the King of Pentacles below. It will take a lot of work reconciling the differences inherent in this situation, but anything is currently possible and it is their battle to lose.
9. Actions.
The Fool. A new beginning with fresh adventures ahead, although there is a very real danger of it all going horribly wrong. The bag on the Fool’s shoulder represents natural talents that he could usefully employ if he took the trouble to open the bag, but he generally doesn’t. For wild optimists this card is a warning to temper enthusiasms with a little common sense. For pessimists, it suggests lightening up a little.
This card suggests the Tories will for the time being ignore these disputes in pursuit of higher poll ratings than truly begin to address the dangerous aspects of moving forwards without examining things more closely. The longer this goes on the more unstable the situation gets. Since the King of Pentacles above suggests they can solidify and strengthen the manifesto by dealing with this, the Fool suggests they would be foolish just to keep the bag shut and trust that guile and the innocence of “change for a chance” will overcome in the end.
10. Words.
Four of Wands. It is now time for a well-deserved rest and the enjoyment of good company. Your plans were well-laid, so you can allow yourself to bask for a while as you see your ideas take shape in reality. This could also be a good time to consider moving house, or formalising a romantic attachment. Enjoy this time, but don’t allow complacency to creep in.
There is a lot of truth in this; the Tories seem to be lucky for the moment that Labour are no longer given the benefit of the doubt by the media, nor are they still the pariahs that they once were. This is cause for feeling good about oneself and confident of getting more of a fair hearing at the election. However there is the danger of complacency that other cards, particularly the Page of Swords root and The Fool’s actions, presage. The Tories may not have this splashed across the front page of the Times or Independent, but if they do not address it publicly then they risk it catching up with them for a third season. Fox needs to pipe down and let the leadership divvy up the public spending cake in accordance with economic needs and public priorities, but the leadership equally need to take the priorities of their members seriously and satisfy Fox’s ambitions before they turn dangerous. The next episode of this may not be in spring 2010 – it may be in summer 2009.
11. Development.
Knight of Pentacles. The Knight of Pentacles is useful, reliable, patient, persistent and loyal. He is cautious by nature, preferring evolution to revolution, but has courage enough when it is called for. He is not a great one for spiritual quests, preferring prizes you can hold in the hand over those of the heart and soul. A happy measure of wealth may come your way, but beware reckless spending.
The further progress of the situation may be that Fox is not content to see his brief sidelined at the expense of more pressing claims, or that Osborne prevails by convincing Fox that there is more need for hospitals rather than helicopters during this period of relative global peace and economic fluctuations. One of them has to win here, and will only be satisfied with material progress rather than promises or spin convincing the one to back down and cementing the other’s position. It needs to come to a practical solution, and will do so fairly soon.
12. Solution.
IV Swords. A temporary release from struggle. Use solitude to plan a way forward because the chances are that much will be demanded of you again soon. This can refer to either health or your personal life. Remember, with hindsight all the best achievements involve triumph over adversity.
Elements of this also need a withdrawal from hostilities by both parties and the issue to be defused before things get too dangerous for both men. Because it has not gone much further than the Mirror – as yet – there is hope that things can be averted rather than prolonged and allowed to damage the party in general.
13. Outcome.
III Pentacles. A very promising outlook for new ventures is forecast, which calls for the exercise of all your best talents. Creativity flourishes in this situation, so bring out the artist or craftsman in you and do your best. You have a chance to prove your mastery to the world and reap the rewards. Integrity is everything.
The Tories need to make sure that this card represents solid work in progress rather than just the flourishing of creative bonhomie which is not translated into solid effort or is allowed to proceed beyond the drawing board. It would please me more if this card was the VIII of Pentacles, which represents advanced craftsmanship. Still, it is a foundation of something solid which allows more work to be done. The Tories need to make sure that it is.
