In my opinion David Cameron made his best speech before he became leader – and as soon as he had achieved that landmark, he immediately became a waffling bore who for a while seemed fixated on making speeches bemoaning the break-up of society (coincidentally when the heat was turned up underneath him) and who has failed in three-and-a-half years to say anything of substance regarding what he would do as leader of the country, not just of his party. Politics isn’t a zero-sum game. Government is not just winning a comfortable majority and then winging it – those who really capture the imagination of the country are those like Thatcher or Blair who fight for their vision of society rather than run with any old thing that happens to be going on in the press, make boring platitudes such as “let sunshine reign!” and then disappear from view for weeks on end (I ended up loudly declaiming to anyone within earshot, “I wish there was something interesting in the papers” – and then suddenly the Smeargate scandal broke L L L!).
The party are probably enjoying themselves at the moment but did yesterday’s speech to the party’s Spring Forum make much difference? Let’s ask my cards.
CAMERFOX’S SPEECH TO SPRING FORUM
Situation.
The World. Or, the conference at the end of the universe. An apostheosis of sorts – or is it Camerdammerung? This card usually denotes some kind of ending rather than mere triumph. Vulpes Vulpes has reached some sort of peak, yes, but that peak is unstable and will implode in on himself if he does not come down off this high and put his nose to the grindstone. He can’t continue without some kind of ending taking place, in other words.
1. Party viewpoint.
II Wands. This card suggests a decision-making point has been reached before the final push; a challenge is faced to make the right choice from two equally persuasive ideas available. These options are distinct and clear to the party; they may even represent a dilemma. The party is the one who eventually has to carry this forward and I think it still has reservations about the particular way forward as a lot of it is still not as liberal as Cameron would like, and although its poll ratings have once again bounced back to a reasonable level at which to go into a general election, the difficulties of not having the ability to make choices based on concrete policies or sell those to the public may still mean that the government trumps the party on policy. The arithmetic is still stacked against the party should the polls prove unstable. Therefore the party has to choose whether to believe in its leadership or question it still on the absence of policy, making sure it takes a pro-active stance in any decision it does make.
2. Media viewpoint.
Judgement. This is a critical point at which the media is beginning to make its mind up, but the Judgement card may mean here that the media’s judgement will not go in the Tories’ favour if they cannot actually perform properly as a serious governing party rather than making empty gestures towards vague savings which it believes can be found from waste in the system – including a few issues that were trailed in Saturday’s online papers suggesting that they believed some bodies like the Electoral Commission (?!!) were superfluous to requirements. This suggested to me the party is still immaturely unaware that even right-wing governments need to preserve some essential bureaucracy and make efforts to streamline procedures rather than cut out whole areas of provision. (As a good example, in a rural area where passing wildlife likes the contents of human bin bags, Wokingham Council do not provide us with wheelie bins. Conservatism in action...feed the foxies today!) There might be some disappointments in this speech which mean the party does not get the direct endorsement that it seeks – and it begins to be too late to make more detailed plans to win this critical support. The Sun is still sitting on the fence with “it’s your choice” ending its budget-day leader. This needs to come right round before the Tories can push on upwards to a 50% rating and beyond, mandatory if they want to win the election.
3. Public view.
IX Cups. The public is calmly satisfied with its current lot and although they see the Tories as a viable proposition there is no head-over-heels-in-love element to this card – it is a carnal, indulgent symbol rather than transcendent love for the party which is driving the poll results at the moment. This is not a strong enough card to base anything more than a possible win on, and in previous parts of the electoral cycle the longevity of New Labour and the difficulties of making up a 150-seat deficit before the Tories even get an overall majority, still less current projections of one of 100+ seats. They still have a long way to go before they have the public momentum to get over this hurdle, particularly in parts north of the West Midlands, where Cameron has yet to broaden his real appeal. Not enough definite, positive support to appeal long into a hard-fought general election campaign.
4. Underlying opinions.
IX Coins. The results so far are good enough – why bother trying to lift the party into the stratosphere? We’ve won already, we just have to wait it out and sit on our hands. A good idea, but one likely to lead to recriminations after the event rather than any extra lift for their current campaign and leadership.
5. Underlying issues.
IV Coins. Again, another supremely defensive card, trying to sneak past the electorate for fear they will reject the true face of Tory policies and ideology. The Tories are risk-averse, unable to show their cards for fear they will either be stolen by Labour or put off wavering voters who still are reluctant to admit the party’s past rather than its bright, Cameroon future. The party however shows an insecurity in this and may not feel it is genuinely popular enough to withstand a Labour campaign in the spring. They are mistaking silly ideas where waste exists for a genuinely radical and expansive social policy agenda that, although making cuts and streamlining procedures, still qualifies as good governance and not cheap populist words which don’t have the requisite thought behind them to balance the social budget. Since their policy on social inclusion extends only to making marriage a more important part of policymaking, I’m not sure they really yet grasp the complexities of modern social management or have the understanding of what Tony Blair called “joined up government”. Compassionate conservatism is empty, defensive, weasel-words. We need to see more competency and more of a specific social agenda before the Tories will have matured into a capable governing party. And yet, we never have.
6. Roots of the speech.
V Swords. This card suggests that recent victories have not been utilised to a positive good and remain simply vindictive strikes against what the Tories feel is a corrupt and decaying government but is in reality one that still has a coherent agenda in maintaining its interests elsewhere in policy terms while for the moment conceding ground on day-to-day politics. There is a feeling that currently Labour are destroying themselves, and the way to win power is to hasten that process, but in reality the voters vote on policy and will punish the Tories unexpectedly if the Cameroons think nothing else need be done than allow the V Swords to cripple their opponents.
7. Seeds of the speech.
Page of Pentacles. A cautious beginning in the week before what should be a general election (if we were dealing with what has become a normal 4-year parliament). The beginnings of something concrete – but still only fragile experimentation, most notably because they keep changing the emphasis of their policies. Nothing yet of direct solidity or definite stature. And still a long way to go to grow into the role of government.
8. Developments for Cameron.
VIII Wands. Momentum, but of an uncontrolled and unfocussed sort, and at the expense of coherency. There is the potential here to go so fast the car crashes into a brick wall at 70 mph. Images of Kinnock in Sheffield spring to mind.
9. Developments for the party.
X Coins. The party begins to solidify itself and its message and take seriously the need for policy action as well as political swashbuckling. Something happens to bring this need to the forefront of discussions and establish a base from which to launch a successful campaign.
10. Narrative going forwards.
VII Cups. The party has too many conflicting ideas of what it should do to realise the significance of the X Coins above. There are so many different needs and different agendas here that someone will need to separate out what is true from what is false and to take the lead in choosing what leads to follow up to make sure the party has a coherent plan for a long-lasting government. This might also suggest delusions that the party could win big at this level of output, but there is also a need for cutting through the fog that clouds the minds of people who really ought to know how to run a country as complicated as modern Britain. Cameron’s policies suggest he is interested in running a prosperous city state along the line of the Chicago Boys rather than the disparate communities making up Britain. He has to get a handle on this or he will be pulled under.
11. Balance of Probabilities.
X Swords. A second appearance for this damaging card (third including my own readings). In this situation, again, it may be failure here that leads to ultimate success – under someone else if needs be. The hour of reckoning is clearly visible, and if the party wants to succeed, it may have to cut the cords holding it back and put things into more concrete terms – even against the wishes of its own leadership.
12. Solution.
Temperance. This is the need for genuine thought and exposition of issues hitherto swept under the carpet. Facing these difficulties now might set the party on a direct course for victory, as things cannot really proceed without a direct and positive agenda, rather than the fragmented and ever-changing rhetoric that the Tories rely on. There needs to be concentrated, focussed effort now, and the party needs to press this onto the leadership in order to really succeed rather than just walk the tightrope into the election campaign it is facing within the year.
13. Outcome.
Death. A radical and definite change – there is no escaping the needs which will become apparent now that the speech has been made and not been used to promote the proper agenda the Tories need to govern. It is not too late to transform the current reliance on politics into a positive policy programme – but they left it too late last time, and seem to have learned nothing. Although this is a cataclysm, it is also a necessary rebirth – to continue on the way the Tories are going, they will face this either now or at the election, and for all those like me who do want a change, the sooner they face it, the better.
