Interesting news about Blair’s continued presence in the political firmament in this country. Although lately Blair seems to have become persona non grata, he weighed in (according to the Telegraph) by slamming the 50p top rate of tax. New Labour apparatchiks – notably Stephen Byers and Charles Clarke – have never been happy with Gordon’s direction. However, although Blair may have left these shores for a vague role somewhere as something (not quite sure what but it seems to be mostly composed of meeting Obama for prayer breakfasts, pontificating on the pontiff’s own pontifications, or spending two minutes in the Middle East for two days a year), he still exerts an influence of sorts (if only on the selection procedure in Erith and Thamesmead CLP). He is obviously still seen as a selling point by the Diet Torygraph, although it could be said he could not in the end establish the sort of presence Margaret Thatcher still asserts.
Rumours abound – again, perhaps as a misreading of his popularity with the electorate – that he might be tempted to endorse Cameron rather than Brown at the next election, though my own feelings and hunches suggest he would stick with Labour.
I’ll leave this one to the Tarot. I’m going to go back to putting in the printed descriptions used in the booklets, as it’s an area which I don’t really think I am over-qualified to speak on, having left the Labour party five years ago and not knowing much about the internal debates which I left behind back then.
Situation.
VIII Wands. The Eight indicates sudden progress that is possibly too fast for comfort, so try to slow things down a little and avoid over-hasty decisions that you might later regret. This is an exciting and well-starred time with travel, new business partnerships, and long-term romance all likely – just bear in mind that life is not always this easy, and plan for those rainy days.
Blair and Brown both recognise that much more is now at stake than it ever was when they blithely spun and misrepresented themselves back into the driving seat in 2005 (though I do believe that Brown showed a lot of his true colours during the campaign when he appeared at one point to be setting out his own stall on foreign policy – promising parliamentary endorsement for all declarations of intent to go to war – rather than concentrating on his Treasury brief). They are realising that Labour is going full tilt towards the buffers and if they squeak back in this time they might find that they are irrevocably lost the next time to a larger Tory landslide than is perhaps possible this time round. Both men are realising that the time is coming to act, but it is the nature of this action which will be key to whether they can both pull together for the sake of their own party rather than someone else’s.
1. How Blair views Brown.
King of Cups. The King is generous, honest, level-headed, kind and cultured. He takes his responsibilities seriously and champions peace and the arts of civilisation. He can be a formidable opponent in war, but only as a last resort. He is a great patron of the arts and sciences, and when in a favourable position in a spread his presence should be taken as an encouragement to make plans on a great scale.
Blair still has respect for Brown, and sees him as a King in charge of his spiritual and emotional legacy as well as the policy agenda which has kept New Labour afloat for longer than “Old” Labour could manage. Blair is not yet fundamentally at odds with Brown and does not belittle him or his ability and Brown cannot be said yet to have lost the support of his predecessor.
2. How Brown views Blair.
Page of Pentacles. Intuitive, sensitive, creative, and hard-working, the Page is a successful student with psychic tendencies of which he is not always conscious. The card can signify good news such as success in a test or examination, or the attitude needed to make it happen. He can be a bit of a dreamer, though, so engrossed in whatever project he is focussed upon that everyday life may fall apart around him.
Brown does not share the same appreciation of his predecessor’s practical ability to govern effectively – the comments in 2005 that I distinctly remember suggests to me that Brown’s fundamental disagreement with Blair was in the realm of domestic administration. Brown is uncomfortable with what the Blairites have come to worship in politics – celebrity, glitter, the ability to be known from California to Canberra and back again – and sees it as less important than the focus and dedication to domestic issues that Blair neglected. The feelings may be the reverse of what people believe – that Brown has a harder time with the remnants of Blairism and the corresponding “Cameroon” tendency than (at least) Blairism has with him.
3. How the public views Brown.
VI Pentacles. Financial success comes your way and justice demands that you pass the favour along. Just as others have taken a gamble on your talents, now it is time for you to do the same, either by sponsoring some struggling aspirant or simply by sharing some of your profits with the less fortunate in the world.
The public is not overly hostile with Brown, and this can be shown in the recent ComRes poll putting the Tories back behind Labour when it comes to economic management, despite the drop in overall ratings precipitated largely by Smeargate. The public are wedded to the sort of economic justice dispensed by Labour, and although that may not any longer be sustainable the gamble they are still taking is that Labour do still know largely what they are doing whereas the Tories seem to take a short-term skirmish approach to policy-making without thinking hard enough in the long run what they believe they can afford to put forward. Labour need to say this louder and clearer, and to stick to positive aspects of a programme for “austerity”, but potentially the public still listens despite feeling aggrieved with short-term difficulties and tactical blunders.
4. How the public views Blair.
The Hanged Man. You are at a life crossroads at which sacrifices and patience are needed if the right choices are to be made. Submit gracefully, and all will be well. Life needs to be viewed from a fresh angle, and what may seem a total distraction to your plans may just take you in a fresh, creative direction. You may feel you are wasting your time hanging around, but it will prove to be well worth your while.
Blair had come to the end of his road in 2007 when he left office and despite the problems for his predecessor he too would have damaged Labour more if he had continued in office rather than stepped down when he did. The public do not think much of him anymore, and his absence from the cut-and-thrust of domestic affairs serves to sever much of the attachment the public had to him in the first place. He cannot influence people that much even if he were to endorse a rival party, and it would be viewed with scepticism if he did rather than mean that the Tories could really crow about that support. He does not mean much to the electorate except as an historical figure, and does not raise the same debates over his influence or legacy as Margaret Thatcher still does. He is, essentially, a non-person.
5. Roots of the current issues.
The Emperor. The Emperor represents earthly power achieved through force of will, including war if necessary, though usually the card stands for stability, wealth, justice and the dominance of reason over emotion. It can represent an authority figure at work or in the family, or the attitude necessary to carry plans through to fruition. Sometimes it’s necessary to put aside reflection and sympathy, and simply act.
One of the tabloids showed a cartoon where Brown was in a graveyard alongside “dead” Blairite ministers (including Stephen Byers and Charles Clarke) rising from their graves to drag him down with them. Blair’s tomb was shaking with an ominous rumble. Perhaps this cartoonist had superb foresight – Blair weighing in to contemporary debates was not unforeseeable, given Margaret Thatcher often did so to try and damage Major (Owlperson gives me permission to write that; on the visit I made to Brighton recently his fear at going past the Grand Hotel gave me insight into how much he is deeply linked to the spirit of Conservatism and that makes me trust him even more when channelling his opinions on the 1980s and 1990s). Blair is trying to assert his authority, though this may not be as resonant with the public as he hopes, and his esteem for Brown in the King of Cups does not suggest he is trying to deliberately ruin his successor’s chances of re-election.
6. Seeds of future developments.
VIII Cups. Restlessness causes you to question many aspects of your life and possibly with good cause, as maybe it is time for some major changes. But remember that it is your own restlessness and need for a sense of purpose that is driving you. Others will not appreciate being blamed for what is basically your problem.
It may be possible for Brown and Blair to make some progress towards a synthesis of views here rather than completely falling out over it. Although the problems seem to be personally on Brown’s side rather than Blair’s the need for development of the situation is immediate if Labour are to win the next election and avoid annihilation this June. It looks like the situation is not so disastrous that moving on is still an option before the Tories get their policy and social agenda worked through properly, presumably at this autumn’s conference. Blair may not be trying to ingratiate himself with the other side – yet – because he still believes this progression at the heart of his current party is possible.
Situation 2 – progression of the issue.
The Chariot. Triumph through the careful balancing of opposites and courage in the face of danger are shown by this card. Turmoil, upheaval, and excitement on a journey that can be metaphorical or real, but either way leave you feeling that you have arrived in a different place. Hard work at this stage is recognised and rewarded for a change, but be careful not to relax too soon.
The development of the situation looks good for Labour but the Chariot comes with a warning that the forces involved are too powerful for anyone to control and might produce a reaction that could be damaging to all concerned. Forces which propel Labour forward may rip them apart later on if they are put to the wrong ends – maintaining themselves in power by means that gave rise to Smeargate, for example, or trying to meddle in arts that worked in 2005 (such as the mole who led to Michael Howard sacking Howard Flight which amazingly did not rebound on the mischief-makers) but which didn’t work in 2009 and won’t in 2010 if tried again.
7. Involvement of Cameron/Conservative party.
X Cups. This card represents a happy home life, contentment at work, and good standing in your community, all of which are the result of diligent application and energy. You have established a stable and honoured place for yourself and your loved ones in the world. Traditionally this is the luckiest card in the Tarot for newly-weds.
Cameron has the esteem of Blair and is regarded as a fitting successor by Gordon’s predecessor, despite the good opinion Blair still has for Brown in private. It could be said that the former Prime Minister, like Margaret Thatcher, could bestow a muted blessing on a kindred spirit, with the proviso that there is little of substance in this card and the depth of the honour and energy that goes with it is in outward appearance rather than solid reality.
8. Involvement of the Labour Party.
VI Cups. Nostalgia is likely to affect you as you become aware of just how many current events have their roots way back in your distant past. This is healthy up to a point because you will soon face a major life choice, and drawing upon the lessons of the past can help ensure that you make the right decision in the near future. Also, seek the advice of old friends.
Blair is more popular than Brown among the Labour membership still and the party may believe that Blair as a winner was more attractive a proposition going in to 2009-2010 than Brown as a potential loser. However this is based on hindsight and the economic difficulties faced since Blair left office could have distorted the party’s views much more than their opinions at the time of Blair’s departure showed. Nostalgia may hold the Labour Party back but changing realities do mean that they would probably have had to cope with the swing of the pendulum back towards the Conservatives anyway, and the party is currently retreating – perhaps dangerously – into a funk from which it may not emerge in time to fight the election. Only the difficulties facing the Tories in terms of substance stand between them, perhaps, and Downing Street if the warnings inherent in this card are not heeded.
9. Involvement of the Press.
V Wands. Gold, opulence, and splendour come your way, but a rival is threatening your position. Resist the urge to score points and your enemy will end up exposing their own pettiness. Competitiveness is healthy up to a point, but can become destructive if taken to extremes. Double-check everything you do, and the situation will resolve itself.
The healthy competition for Labour for the press’ attentions has not yet reached the point at which there is no ability for them to get their message across, however troubling the times, but the rivalry between Blair and Brown has come out through the press – and through a rival side trying to goad Brown into turning on his Blairite colleagues in order to further damage the Labour side. It will only work if Brown rises to the bait; I don’t think he feels that the press is important in this regard, particularly anything to do with the Daily Telegraph. However there is a problem here and further tensions could turn the Wands of dynamic, “creative” anarchy into the Swords of leadership tension and ultimate destruction.
10. Underlying issues.
V Cups. Unhappiness and dissatisfaction cast a shadow over your relationships. Dwelling too much upon the past will only make the situation worse. What you need is a renewal of vision and it will come if you are patient, but in the meantime, resist laying the blame for this situation on those around you. The problem lies within you.
Labour need to look at their own failings and build on them rather than lash out or grow despondent. The Tories are no longer useless, or what I used to call “lovably pants”; although they have serious flaws and obstacles to their own power there is no use assuming they can’t fight their way out of a paper bag. This is down to the Howard and Cameron leaderships; Howard’s ability to put policies forward in a strong and coherent way was perhaps more dangerous than Cameron’s difficulties in doing so but the electoral cycle has moved inexorably onward such that this may not matter before this election (though the Tories better have a redeveloped and more consistent social agenda to show the electorate in 2015 if this current lightweight agenda cannot find its target). Labour now recognise this, and thus need to pull themselves together to fight for what, according to their propaganda emails, does still seem a buoyantly positive image of what Labour has always wanted to bring into reality. It would be, in my opinion as a former member and current voter, a shame to waste all this in a shower of Smeargates.
11. Underlying opinions.
The Hierophant. Providing comfort, security, the wisdom of the ages, and generosity in others’ time of need are among the many virtues of the Hierophant that make him someone to turn to in troubled times. But inflexibility – a lack of openness to change – can often negate these virtues. Too great a reverence for the past can become hostility toward all change, and then the Hierophant symbolises an obstacle to growth. He can also indicate marriage or other lasting union.
The underpinning at least for Labour is sound because there is a belief there in the way forward that perhaps the Tories either lack altogether or believe that a Potemkin village provides an adequate replacement. There is a warning that regression or nostalgia for the Blairite past may get in the way of the reduction in expectations needed at this point in the electoral cycle, and that by no fault of their own they now find themselves on a downswing. As a politician, my future lies with the Conservatives, but as someone currently working outside politics I have the luxury of seeing both parties at arm’s length and both leaderships with their virtues and flaws. I think at this point these opinions may be common to a lot of those who do believe Labour may be winding down operations but are still capable of winning a slim majority when it comes to the crunch.
12. Underlying developments.
IV Swords. A temporary relief from struggle. Use solitude to plan a way forward because the chances are that much will be demanded of you again soon. This can refer to either health or your personal life. Remember, with hindsight, all achievements involve triumph over adversity.
A period where Labour can begin to renew itself after a difficult month. The Tory challenge appears to be such that the party is much better to concentrate on governing and developing new ideas as opposed to trying to take the political struggle much further in a climate where the Tories are the ones given the benefit of the doubt. Labour need to build on their “comparative advantage” and let Mandelson take care of the spin, as he has been an asset in the past and may be so again when it comes to selling what Brown has been putting together for a while now.
13. Development in general.
V Swords. Destruction, waste, and loss threaten to undermine your spirits, but do bear in mind that they are only temporary. You may justly be feeling bad, but beware of getting caught up in a negative spiral. The conditions will pass, and you can still achieve your goals if you learn the lessons of the current setback and apply them next time around.
Politics is not totally avoidable, and Labour may be feeling embattled by the cut and thrust of damaging assaults by the Tories – though they should remember that this is mere politics, and they still hold a lot of policy trump cards as far as the social policy agenda has developed over the Cameron leadership (i.e., not much challenge there). Defeats need to be taken on the chin, and victories turned into positive moments rather than moments for hubris to consume the party and for it to return to any hint of the dirty tricks Blair employed in 2003-2005 against Howard, an opponent Owlperson tells me he reserved a deep hatred for – mutual, if Owlie is to be believed. Brown has talent and must not waste it fighting his own party, and particularly not his own predecessor, if he is to see any improvements.
14. Solution.
IV Wands. It is now time for a well-deserved rest and the enjoyment of good company. Your plans were well-laid, so you can allow yourself to bask for a while as you see your ideas take shape in reality. This could also be a good time to consider moving house, or formalising a romantic attachment. Enjoy this time, but don’t allow complacency to creep in.
Labour’s challenge is now to get on with the job and let actions speak louder than words, creating stability rather than always seeking to get even with their opponents and rival factions. The construction of some sort of recovery and plans to share this with everyone must be a priority, as the Tory cuts in themselves may still be such that they are either derisory or cut away stable structures in governance because of a reactionary suspicion of modern ideas and ideals, despite Cameron’s professed desire to take the Tories forward. Labour have the levers of power to use – so they should use them as much as they can.
15. Outcome.
VI Wands. You benefit from triumphant and well-earned success as careful plans and hard work bear fruit. Be magnanimous in victory, and your moment of glory will be prolonged. This is no time for remembering petty insults and injuries suffered along the way because if you forget them, so will others.
The war goes on, but the battle is winnable and is a clash between two political heavyweights which can improve rather than batter Labour’s chances. If Blair is unhappy, he is not unhappy with Brown himself but with a direction which he would not allow while in power. He is not trying to sabotage Labour or endorse Cameron; rather he feels he is trying to improve Labour’s prospects and knows an effective way to do it. The victory is temporary but the possibility for Labour to ride out this difficulty and turn negatives into strong – but still unstable – positives may help in the long term to give Brown a helping hand and stop him from going under to what is a Conservative Party unable to cope with the rigours of government.
