An interesting item appears in the Times regarding a new book going into gory detail about the relationship between David Cameron and Boris Johnson suggests that the battle of wits between the two may escalate at some stage, particularly if Boris, who has found power has grounded him in reality and quite often finds himself at odds with pure party doctrine (I wouldn’t yet say policy), is the reality of a Conservative administration taking over from a longish period Labour rule. Does London provide the basis for a national government or does it show that Conservative policy is naive and superficial compared to what needs to be done? Of course Boris denies that there is any split but although his lead over Cameron in the Conservative Home poll is not enough to be damaging to either man, the disconcerting thing is that the Tories are starting to talk about Boris as a potential leadership candidate if he returns to Parliament after a brief stint as mayor. I’m not sure I’d really vote for Boris as PM – I wouldn’t fancy his chances appealing to the electorate at large if competency and reliability was an issue; Vulpes Vulpes has difficulty on that point still in my own experience – but it merits a mention here because I thought VV was supposed to have finally stopped the party from prolonging the toxic battles which have dogged them for 20 years.

It seems whatever the difference between people and however small that difference actually is, it intensifies rather than lessens the tensions between them. As far as I am concerned I would vote for neither at any election on which the future of anything above parish council level depended, but it merits an article here because it is the first hook I’ve had in a long time regarding internal disputes and debates which really ought to have been settled.

I’ll look at the relationship here now with the tarot, as always. By the way, Boris is a frog-totem, which predictably emphasises the fun and jollity of life at the expense of seriousness, groundedness (now, if he were a toad...) and having a solid base, but I’m pleased that Boris has not turned out to be a total disaster even if I did wish he would give up pontificating in the Torygraph and concentrate on snowploughs instead.

Situation/Relationship at heart.

High Priestess. A more balanced and calm relationship than this article demonstrates; the two men provide a centre of gravity for the Conservative Party as it currently is and if there is any tension it is in rivalry rather than opposites generating friction. The two men are working towards the same ends and are joined by a mutual reserve rather than open battling. However the Priestess warns of a stand-off in some areas where disputes are not manifesting themselves; the two men keep their own households and this could at some point – though not right now – generate a centrifugal force over smaller issues.

BORIS:

Significator.

Knight of Wands. Boris is a dilettante but he is experimental and has the dignity of office to raise him above mere thought into actions and the direction (though not whole control) of political gains. He is however ungrounded in the sense that he picks and chooses where to apply this energy rather than being consistent and balanced in office.

Viewed by media.

Knight of Swords. The media find Boris impetuous and unbalanced; his recent tantrum at the meeting to discuss the snow crisis and his handling of it led to an undignified exit which was unbecoming of an executive authority and showed contempt for scrutiny. Boris is trying to rule as he has in the past thought – as a cad, a bounder and a rogue – rather than develop meaningful gravitas. Nevertheless, the dynamism of this card has not yet brought him serious problems and as a figure who has an extensive retinue of civil servants to implement his plans he may well for now be getting away with things. Nevertheless what concerned me about this was that Cameron felt he was not up to the job of mayor in the first place and could not maintain the level of output he does without boredom setting in, ambition taking over, and the use of this platform for wider political ends rather than, like Livingstone before him, allowing it to define his purpose in life and use it to enrich his constituents as well as his own coterie.

Viewed by public.

VI Wands. A success, but a temporary and unstable one. Boris may currently be popular but he may not see lasting popularity if he keeps the buffoon act going for much longer and the tide begins to turn again away from the Conservatives.

Viewed by party.

VI Coins. A fortuitous nuisance – someone who demonstrates the ability of the Conservative Party to govern a major city again but one who is the sum of his parts and a means to an end rather than who enjoys a healthy respect and esteem beyond what he can do for making sure the Conservatives win the next election. The material suit of coins is not here in its fullest element but at least he is not an outright disappointment or embarrassment, just that he matters to them only as a hand on the levers of power and a demonstration of the possibilities of a Conservative government to enact its policies, which has been absent for a while.

Balance of probabilities.

The Fool. Boris was a risk that some believe was worth taking and because he represented the return of the Conservative party to active government, the electorate regard him probably as a gamble as well. His demeanour under parliamentary scrutiny means he has a long way to go to demonstrate executive competency and grace under pressure, but it does seem likely that, contrary to fears and doubts in 2004 and 2005, the party is once again seen as a viable proposition for government and the electorate is largely satisfied to take that risk again now.

Chances of succession.

Judgement. There is an element in which Johnson may be involved in any possible succession issue here and the inescapable fate forecast by this card is puzzling to those who think that any leadership discussion at this stage is largely academic because of Vulpes Vulpes’ apparent success as Conservative leader. Unfortunately Judgement is not a card which leaves any room for doubt that the issue will come up in a striking and definite way sooner or later, though of course no indication of timing can be given, and I am always wary of making definite prognoses based on a card which I read intuitively rather than psychically.

Chances of re-election.

Page of Wands. Boris needs to seem fresh and challenging to retain much of his appeal, and this is a diminution of his current standing as the Knight of Wands, so I would say that a lot depends, like his election last year, on the relationship not between Boris and his opponent in personal terms but on the relationship between Labour and the Conservatives in 2012. It may be that Boris’ appeal wanes if he cannot ground himself and take office and its responsibilities seriously, and his amateurish attitude and basely political outlook, like so much of the Conservative platform, have limited appeal when attempting to unite the country rather than turn it against an unpopular government as a genuine protest against Labour misrule. If the reasons for his election as a Conservative are taken away, then his personal standing may be diminished as a result.

CAMERON.

Significator.

The Hermit. The Hermit is isolated and deep in thought, and Cameron here is withdrawing purposefully from the world. Perhaps this is to pace himself for the general election and not disclose much in the way of policy weight, but there is also an element of secrecy and opacity of purpose and this needs to be made clearer in the coming months. Boris is too outgoing for his job, but Cameron may be too introspective or need to appear much more transparent to go further than his current position.

Viewed by media.

VIII Coins. Cameron is still given the benefit of the doubt that Conservative policies are under construction and this may be to do with the continuing good fortune in the polls. Nevertheless, completion is still not evident and prolonging this period may end up in the Tories losing the time needed to persuade the electorate to accept a radical new direction rather than to remain on familiar ground. It bedevilled Neil Kinnock in 1992 and it looks like it could bring the Conservatives lower than low if something radical does not come out of CCHQ during this summer and autumn.

Viewed by public.

The Lovers. The choice here will be a decisive one and the public is still to make up its mind based on feelings rather than cold rationality. The public is warming towards the Conservatives in general but is still at the point at which the choice is being made rather than that the public is set in its overall opinion which won’t change before next June. The Lovers also indicates the presence of rivals and that the decision being made is a major transition and development which will last as long as the average marriage in this country – solid for the moment, but open to question later on if the partner does not perform adequately in bed.

Viewed by party.

X Cups. Cameron has managed to keep the party quiet at this stage of the electoral cycle and provide them with the exposure and development they need, as well as the confidence of people taking them seriously. However this remains fluid and translates not into a real, true, solid love but a feeling which can be undone by the wind starting to blow in the opposite direction.

Balance of probabilities.

X Swords. The card does not follow on from the above benign reading, being the card of damage, ruin and destruction, a comprehensive defeat. It could be said that this is prediction dependent not on the elements that Cameron himself is putting into the situation but something unpredictable, unforeseeable and events conspiring to knock Vulpes Vulpes out prematurely. The intensity of the card is enhanced by it coming out reversed which suggests that destruction is total and results in the debilitation of what Cameron came here to do, rather than being mitigated or annulled by Cameron’s sly manoeuvrability as a politician who says a lot but does correspondingly little until he is forced to nail his colours to the mast. This may prove to be an inescapable problem, but then Fate often takes a hand at some point and the damage is swift and retributive in nature.

Chances of succession.

VIII Cups. If Cameron wants to succeed to the premiership he needs to find out what is necessary and do it, and find out what is unnecessary and ditch it. The VIII of Cups is a card of leaving behind a path which is unsatisfactory, so changing something that is not working is, in this case, more important than adding or subtracting from the current programme. A change of direction before his dreams can be made reality is pressing and needs to be made before it becomes too difficult to manoeuvre out of a situation which could easily become quite dangerous and unstable, as in the X Swords above.

Chances of election.

VII Coins. The patience and hard work needs to pay off for Cameron in particular if he is going to realise his ideals and assume office. The frustration and impatience of this card needs to be assuaged in order to realise the goals he has set himself and the party for government. Development of a stable programme rather than one that just wins on the day is a must if he is going to be taken seriously, and articulation of this programme is long overdue if he wants to escape disquiet and frustration among his silent backbench and membership. Johnson takes the lead because he has executive authority; Cameron needs to say precisely what he would do with his if given the chance.

CONCLUSION

Strength. The two men are still bound together by self-control and discipline, and neither will want to be drawn into questioning about their respective views of their futures, nor of the discussions that have gone on before the election of Johnson to the mayoralty or Cameron to the leadership. Both men have problems with their view of the other’s competency but neither will want to damage each other in the run-up to the election. However control of these forces is not the same as the absence thereof.

OUTCOME

IV Swords. The tensions remain in abeyance but some of the designs for the IV depict a situation not unlike the Sword of Damoclēs – the existence of a threat hanging over one’s head that you can’t escape. The stand-off will continue but may be forced into the open at a later date if what is threatened by the X Swords comes to pass.