European Elections – the prognosis
Part 2. CONSERVATIVES
Position as of April 2009.
III Coins. Some constructive work is beginning with Cameron’s team for the next election but the progress here is limited to the foundations of something bigger – learning, developing, drafting – rather than realisation of that promise. In itself, it’s not bad, because there is some substance there. But if they are intent on realising their grand designs, they need to be further along than this even to get a knock-out result on June 4.
1. Potential result.
Ace of Cups. The possibilities of the result here offer the emotional and psychological confidence to win the General Election outright. It is precisely at this time in 2004 that destroyed Howard’s hopes of winning the 2005 elections. No particular threat now exists from UKIP and the BNP is unlikely to ruin the Tories’ plans. They also begin from a position where they are seen as the natural spokesmen for Britain in Europe and the poll position they craved for 10 years. So very little can apparently go wrong and their supporters in the media are crowing over the “decomposition” of the government so much so it seems churlish to point out Brown still has a year to sort things out and re-assert himself decisively.
2. Underlying reality.
VII Wands. Again, as per last night’s spread, there are obstacles in the Tories’ way which, although overcomeable, are frustrating them and their grassroots to a point where the fulfilment of the Ace still seems a hard task. The potential in position 1 may not be realised because the party shows little presence or definition beyond countering rumours of Cameron’s supposed “embarrassing diseases”. Facing up to the obstacles is one of the Tories’ main needs before they can expect the beneficence of the Ace.
3. 2004 Result.
Ace of Coins. The previous result handed the Tories somewhat of a pyrrhic victory, but it was a major landmark on the road to credibility as a governing party once again. Howard provided Cameron with a legacy that should be informing the party, just as Neil Kinnock turned round the Labour Party by waging wars on Militant and other tendencies within the socialist party and assisted Blair to build on that foundation towards government in 1997. Worryingly then, the construction work in the III is, after three and a half years, still barely advanced enough to put the party in a serious position to give the public an idea of what they really want to do in government. 2009-2010 will need to be a flurry of activity for the Tories to maintain their sense of direction towards the goals they want.
4. 2009 Result.
Queen of Coins. The Queen of Coins brings some substance, but of the administrative and managerial quality rather than that associated with material potency and the ability to drive that agenda forward significantly that the King of Coins would bring. The Tories are trying to manipulate their way towards victory in 2010 with this result here. With Labour more hopeful in their cards than it initially seemed, the Tories show no signs of a destructive result, but this is largely still evidence of the maintenance and administration of the status quo rather than speeding up the process and transcending the Queen to the more pro-acive King. In a sense the Queen is a good spin doctor – she distributes and controls money and power, but does not earn it herself.
5. Advantages at the polls.
III Wands. The Tories are adventurous in their current phase and willing to strike out on a limb to say what people want to hear. This, however, like the III Coins, is only the beginning of what is needed, and it is unable in itself to build the momentum needed to win outright in 2010, given the electoral geometry which may see Labour benefitting from a collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats since the days of Chat-Show Charlie, plus the electoral difficulties in the North of England, Scotland and Wales. The Tories are at least coming out of the comfort zone of opposition into which they retreated after every election defeat of the last twelve years, but need to transform this into concrete substance and concerted action rather than just relying on an aspirational mood.
6. Disadvantages at the polls.
Queen of Swords. The Tories are crippled by debates among themselves, reviews which are perpetually altering party thinking, headed by colourful figures such as Greg Dyke or Kirsty Allsopp who later shy away from outright endorsement of the party in any meaningful sense. From month to month the message changes, not lasting long enough to come up with anything better than inspecting the books on assumption of office. The party needs to sort out a coherent party platform and stick to it – rather than taking the idea that they will be able to square the circle long enough to look Labour in the face at the next election. The Tories need to make up their minds to win people’s hearts.
7. Balance of Probabilities.
King of Cups. Cameron’s significator, and it is positive leadership which will ultimately decide who actually wins the psychological war even if the numbers stack up on the Tories’ side. The Tories may resolve the above issues quick enough to win convincingly where Howard fell to the combined weight of the Euro-rebels and the concerned moderates he mislabelled “extremists” in Southampton. The Tories may inject enough coherency and policy weight into this campaign to continue in poll position for the next year. The King of Cups, however, is good at making himself heard, but not making himself felt.
8. Outcome of Result.
The Moon. The outcome is hidden here behind a question mark, suggesting that the tarot cannot now predict or determine the precise fallout from this election at all. The card here is sufficiently equivocal not to augur either success or failure, but it may hint at a more difficult situation than is immediately obvious. The resolution of Conservative Party debates over the next few weeks may illuminate more of the actual result, but what should be a great day for the Party may, as in 2004, prove its undoing.
