European Elections – the prognosis
The European elections have always been an interesting poll, which last time around in 2004 largely put the kibosh on Michael Howard’s challenge to Tony Blair at the 2005 general election. This time round they take place at the same point before the general poll, but David Cameron’s Conservatives do apparently have a fairer wind than before. The short-lived impact of UKIP was largely nullified by Robert Kilroy-Silk’s spat with the more conservative leadership, who were not prepared, unlike the former Labour MP himself, to challenge Tories on their own home ground. Kilroy’s blistering speech – “the Conservative Party is dying – why give it the kiss of life?” – to UKIP’s conference after beating Howard’s Tories into fourth place in Hartlepool in October 2004 rebounded on him and he ended up forming the splinter party Veritas, which seems to have died a death. Kilroy-Silk is still a European MP, though for how much longer one can only guess.
This time round the focus has shifted from Labour being unassailable as a party of government to the idea that it is now time for a change. Cameron is largely unchallenged by UKIP, though fears that the BNP could win enough votes to have their own MEP remain. Brown is damaged by recent sleaze issues and although questions remain about the Tories’ expenses the issue has largely focussed on government abuse of claims.
Analysing both parties now some interestingly and potentially counter-intuitive portents come to light.
Part 1. LABOUR
Position as of April 2009.
V Swords. The damaging and costly legacy of the recent weeks of scandal means Labour are a lot weaker than they appeared to be at Christmas and have a lot of anxieties and frustrations to overcome. They have the potential still to win the war – in fact the V Swords often suggests that the querent has won a fight rather than lost it – but the situation has still been brought to a conclusion where even the winners have been bloodied and need to overcome these injuries before they can proceed.
1. Potential result.
III Swords. Again the prognosis may not be good and here Labour may yet again find themselves damagingly behind. They are already starting from a handicap – the Tories have won the European elections for the last two iterations, even whilst in 1999 still unable to grapple with the wider issues facing the party, and in 2004 won in spite of Howard’s difficulties at the Southampton rally which largely finished off his chances of becoming Prime Minister. The potential here is that Labour, who lost the battle in 2004 but won the war a year later, may go down to a defeat from which it would be difficult in present circumstances to ever recover from.
However, the III Swords suggests that the heartbreak from any defeat is only temporary. Defeat may not be avoidable but it need not be permanent enough to entirely wreck their prospects at the general election.
2. Underlying reality.
King of Coins. The King of Coins is usually the most able and competent of the four Kings and I originally ascribed the card to Gordon Brown when I began to read political tarot in 2006. The ox in the card’s picture here shows Labour may yet have the underpinning gravity and weight to soldier on through these elections without grievous bodily harm – at least making sure that a defeat can be recovered from quickly or steadily during the subsequent 12 months before a necessary general election.
3. 2004 Result.
VIII Swords. Historically, Labour have not done well in the European elections, even as a fairly popular governing party in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This is largely down to the Tories’ resonance with majority Euro-scepticism in Britain trumping any difficulties the polls may have held for them nationally. Tory victories in 1999 and 2004 were no indicator of general election success for either Hague or Howard. Labour therefore may be tempted to write off European elections as not a good barometer of public opinion and concentrate on developing and re-asserting national credibility, as they did in 2004-05.
4. 2009 Result.
The Star. An interesting card to find in this position where Labour are seriously not expected now to rebound in either European or national polls. As of writing this, however, there are still six weeks until the poll, and the Budget is due out tomorrow. Events may still conspire to assist Labour and help them recover some respectability in the run-up to the poll. Labour strategists held their cards close to their chest during the last week before the Glenrothes by-election, and perhaps even spread misinformation about what they believed the result would be. That was, of course, in far calmer waters than currently. It also might be conceivable that David Cameron would follow Michael Howard in being hoisted by his own petard due to his enigmatic stance on Europe. Labour seem to at least manage to save face at this poll, increasing rather than decreasing hope for a re-assertion of authority by Brown as his predecessor had after the 2004 poll.
5. Advantages at the polls.
Knight of Swords. Labour have nothing now to lose. They can attack this election with positive gusto; I have been in receipt of propaganda from both sides recently and have noticed Labour have actually downplayed the poisonous negativity that led me to leave the party in 2004, and Smeargate took me by surprise given the tone of the emails emanating from their offices. The Knight of Swords charges forwards, reckless but enthusiastic, and the party has not lost any of its thirst for maintaining or promoting its government. It is also winning council seats that the Tories set their sights on – for example keeping them out of Manchester City Council and winning seats in Redditch, the constituency of beleaguered Home Secretary Jacqui Smith. The fight is not over yet and Labour are still proving electorally safe in territories still a no-go area for the Conservatives.
6. Disadvantages at the polls.
Hanged Man. This can be read as a lack of overall momentum and a lack of will, but it may simply be a case of Labour being forced onto the defensive, not only of their record but of their tactics. It may also warn the party that they can no longer take media support wholly for granted, as well as using tactics evident in 2004 by promoting UKIP at the expense of the Tories – the admission by Labour strategists in the West Midlands that led to my decisive break with the party a week before the 2004 poll. These parties also no longer present a genuine stumbling block for a confident Tory party. It is not a huge drawback, however, since these conditions have prevailed since Michael Howard and David Cameron re-orientated the Tories towards thinking seriously about government again and won the support of sceptical media during the mid-2000s. Brown’s emails to party members seem more aware of this than before, and, Smeargate aside, Labour have learned from difficulties in the polls after feeling confident under Blair to go full tilt into negative campaigning, particularly against Michael Howard at the 2005 election, which I know was off-putting on the ground if not in the media. After the destruction of “Red Rag”, the party knows that it needs to put out this positive propaganda that they have sat on for a while now.
7. Balance of Probabilities.
High Priestess. Brown has an inner strength here which some suggest borders on madness, but is the secret of good leadership. I have recognised this inner peace it in others, not only more modern figures like Howard and Blair, but also in Thatcher and Major at points where the world seemed to turn against them. This inner balance makes Brown harder to crack under pressure than people believe, as Conference 2008 proved. So the balance of the past few weeks may actually result in Labour prioritising the positive message and ditching the negative tendencies to milk Tory troubles, thereby ambushing the complacent Conservatives who believe they have already won not only the European poll but the general election itself.
8. Outcome of Result.
Queen of Wands. Labour’s result is not going to be destructive – on the contrary, it will provide them with the rudimentary ability to respond and cope with events and develop strategies for the general election itself.
