Parliament of Fowls

Time to leave the Tories alone for a moment, and look at the prognosis for Gordon Brown as he enters perhaps his final year as Prime Minister. Brown’s ratings seem to ebb and flow, and he came back seemingly from the dead last autumn before plunging again this spring. I have a lot of respect for him as someone who perhaps has never had the chance to really show us what he is capable of as PM. Not only has the electoral cycle conspired against him, but the economic cycle has inevitably exposed the flaws in Labour’s optimistic idea that “boom and bust” could be managed to flatten out an electoral cycle. My only sadness is that it came too late for Michael Howard, who would have been a much more credible opponent and would have been able to put forward a much more credible alternative, than his lightweight successor; and as such it is galling that the solid Brown is going down to a silly young fox like Cameron.

As such, I’d rather vote Labour in the European elections and potentially at the next general election than allow the Tories a free hand to waltz towards power unprepared and unable to govern coherently. In 2015 either Cameron will have matured enough to be a credible long-term choice as Prime Minister or the Tories will finally understand the benefits of a consistent and coherent policy platform which doesn’t sound as if it is written daily on the back of an envelope and kept secret from the expectant electorate for various spurious reasons – surely, it is crediting this supposedly decomposing government with too much power to be able to implement any of the Tories’ agenda? If the government was really dead in the water, it would not have the strength to implement Tory policy; and if it still has some life in it, then there is no need for an alternative at all. Cameron can’t bank on this idea for too much longer without running out of time to put his views of a Tory alternative across so that the voters know what they are voting for. Michael Howard only had 18 months to do this – Cameron will have had 4 and a half years when dissolution is necessary. The Tories must now be getting a bit scared of Vulpes Vulpes’ possibilities for a clear programme.

I’m going to look closer at Brown and his prospects to see if he really is dead in the water – or merely swimming against the tide.

Situation.

The Hanged Man. You are at a life crossroads at which sacrifices and patience are needed if the right choices are to be made. Submit gracefully, and all will be well. Life needs to be viewed from a fresh angle, and what may seem a total distraction to your plans may just take you in a fresh, creative direction. You may feel you are wasting time hanging around, but it will prove to be well worth your while.

Brown has another chance to go into some kind of political hibernation for the second year running and conserve his energy now for the big push in the autumn. With important elections looming there is a possibility that he will be knocked out of the running after the European elections; however last year the loss of the London mayoralty was felt deep in the Labour strategic bowels and the PM still managed to recoup some of his losses after the conference. Hanging on is now more likely (there is little chance his leadership will inspire a direct challenge as Miliband attempted last year) but he is playing dead now in the hope that another comeback can be staged later on in the year.

1. Brown – appearance in the media.

VI Pentacles. Financial success comes your way and justice demands that you pass the favour along. Just as others have taken a gamble on your talents, now it’s time for you to do the same, either by sponsoring some struggling aspirant or simply by sharing some of your profits with the less fortunate in the world.

Brown still has some practical powers left, though this is much diminished from the VIII or X of Pentacles where he would have some power, still less the pro-active and solid King of this suit. However Labour’s potential still remains – it has been noted, for example, that Brown still has a working majority (unlike Major in 1992-97) and is in no way in danger of losing his control of the agenda, thanks to a largely reactionary Tory opposition rather than a dynamic, pro-active, focused alternative. Still, Brown is still unable to really take the bull by the horns at the moment, and needs to concentrate on behind-the-scenes construction to really take Labour forward and into the clear for a fourth term.

2. Labour – appearance in the media.

IX Wands. You enjoy well-earned success gained through honesty, hard work and intelligence. However, troubles are brewing on the horizon and you are soon likely to be tested to the very limits of your patience and ability. Take the time now to cultivate key allies, and check too that your finances are robust enough to cope with unexpected.

Labour are shoring up and preparing to defend territory still held in the wake of 1997, and that election casts a long shadow over Tory prospects because Labour and the Liberal Democrats have still suppressed the Conservatives below 200 seats and will keep control of the government unless and until the Tories make a real electoral breakthrough. Labour are also still maintaining their position in local government, particularly in the north. This has the corresponding effect of controlling the government’s press, such that although they are well and truly on the defensive they have a cushion, even in the media, with which to work, and a power base accessible through the ballot box. A few problems in Erith and Thamesmead will not make much difference to underlying electability and thus reduce their vulnerability in the press to the open wounds that the Tories showed in their last five to seven years in government.

3. Differences 1-2.

VIII Wands. The Eight indicates sudden progress that is possibly too fast for comfort, so try to slow things down a little and avoid over-hasty decisions that you might later regret. This is an exciting and well-starred time with travel, new business partnerships, and long-term romance all likely – just bear in mind that life is not always this easy, and plan for those rainy days.

Labour still represent a government to which there is little obvious alternative and although they may be going too fast because they are in denial, they are not falling apart – if anything, their collective desire to get re-elected for a fourth time is creating forces uniting rather than dividing them. It is not obvious at the moment where this momentum is coming from, but it is coming nonetheless. I don’t personally feel that there is a deep problem within the Labour Party­; there may be a pessimism within the party activists which could turn corrosive but there is very little feeling from my own senses that Labour are crumbling from within, and this forward march could be one reason for this – the need to be re-elected and to keep on being re-elected for now trumps any sense that apparatchiks are trying to profit from the decline and fall of New Labour.

4. Underlying aspects of Brown.

Ace of Wands. The Ace of Wands represents the beginning of some great new practical venture or career. The time is right for putting your boldest ideas into action, pushing back the boundaries of possibility, and sharing your enthusiasm with the world. Now, when everything is flowing your way, is the time to exercise your talents, stake out your territory and show the world what you can do.

Brown has reserves of energy which he spends only when he needs to. Why waste time now when he can wait for more favourable winds? It is either genius or madness which keeps him going; I hesitate to say I thought the same of Howard in 2005 where Bubo Scandiaca seemed to have too much up his sleeve to be truly out of contention. Although I got that wrong (though Owlperson begs to differ, that is very difficult to divine on an intuitive level without concrete knowledge of the mind of the individual concerned) at that point, Brown is at the point where he is holding back until he can get a grip on things. He may have written off a number of future battles but that does not mean he cannot still win the war with a smart tactic. Unlike Howard, he should not wait too long before doing so otherwise this potential might remain always untapped.

5. Underlying aspects of Labour.

The Emperor. The Emperor represents earthly power achieved through force of will, including war if necessary, though usually the card stands for stability, wealth, justice and the dominance of reason over emotion. It can represent an authority figure at work or in the family; or the attitude necessary to carry plans through to fruition. Sometimes it’s necessary to put aside reflection and sympathy, and simply act.

Labour have managed here to maintain their political infrastructure despite their current predicament and have serious reserves dormant in their cards. They are not opposed on anything like the kind of substance needed for the Opposition to have anything other than a hypothetical programme for government. The wave of practicalities and solid policies that washed over the Tories at the last election suggests to me that any limp Cameroon plans to “look at the books when we get in” will be washed away by this concerted effort to defend their vested interests, their public-sector empire and their large base. The Tories need to develop this underlying empire before they can hope to challenge Labour at the ballot box; Labour need not fear unless they totally lose control of themselves between now and next June.

6. Differences 4-5.

The Lovers. Generally this card represents love or friendship on the worldly plane, marking a kindling or re-kindling of affection after troubles have been overcome. A major commitment could seriously affect the course of your life, and the climate is right for it to be a lasting and fruitful union. Complete honesty and trust are all that are needed to make the union work.

Labour do not so much have differences with Brown so much as a combination which could still work well when it comes to a general election. The two cards here – the Emperor and the Lovers – represent a powerful combination of interests which shore up any short term or temporary difficulties. Labour are understanding that their problems could lead to an election loss and the return of a Tory government and the depth of their need to stay in power is still great enough to overcome the shaky current affairs arena where the opposition is flimsy but potent enough to damage issues at the moment. Labour can be more content than even the Tories at this stage of the previous electoral cycle (by my reckoning, 1990-91) that their orthodoxy has taken root such that it will be difficult for the Tories merely to script themselves in to power without the same depth and solidity to assist this process in the long run. Current affairs is not the only thing that helps a party into or to stay in government.

7. Actions.

The Star. Like the return of spring after winter, the Star signals rebirth in any or all aspects of life, and the relaxing of restraints. After an illness, The Star card indicates the return of health. After a period of frustration in relationships or work, it promises the return of joy and the blossoming of new partnerships. This is a good time to begin any new venture, and also to travel.

Labour have the power to take this period in their stride and try to be optimistic despite the current uphill struggle to stay afloat in political affairs. They take decisions with the necessary optimism here and manage to steer things back into their favour. The prognosis for the European elections was just as hopeful, but the backdrop is still bleak. Labour strategists evidently know something that the newspaper–reading public are not privy to.

8. Words.

VII Wands. Success is likely, even though the odds appear to be stacked against you. Victory will be all the sweeter for the effort it takes you, and sweeter still if you just quietly get on with doing whatever is necessary without complaint. Others may be trying to undermine you, but just talk through with them openly and the threat will go away.

Labour still enjoy the optimistic outlook that has got them this far without a major rift opening. Brown may not be popular with the public, and this is still indicative of a struggle within, but at least there is an overcoming of obstacles in the way of another election victory here, despite no clear road ahead. This is an auspicious card, not least because the press seem to have written Labour off despite there being no clear evidence that the Conservatives really do very much to justify their huge poll lead.

9. Obstacles.

The World. The World in a reversed position warns of disappointment, a lack of imagination, and failure to carry projects right through to the end. Much more perseverance, determination, and imagination are now needed if you hope to realise any of your dreams. Stagnation is now bound to set in if you don’t keep supplying fresh energy to your undertakings.

Labour need to keep their dismal outlook from corroding any of the infrastructure they have worked so hard to accumulate over the last twelve years. Victory is not certain, but neither is defeat, and they would be foolish with such hopeful cards in their hand now to throw it away as they move on into the parliament’s extra time phase. It will take hard work to overcome what is going on at the moment, and they must not relax and believe too much that another deus ex machina will come to assist as it did in the form of last year’s credit crunch. They need to heed this warning to re-establish the “bounce” again if they still want to win the election itself.

10. Handicaps.

Queen of Cups. When reversed the Queen shows her shadow side – arrogant, selfish, fickle, demanding and unreasonable. As a lover she is both jealous and unfaithful, and she drains the energy and resources of everyone within her range.

A deep and difficult personality clash here could still damage Labour’s ability to do its job, both as a political party and a government. It could begin to satisfy itself that the election is winnable through force and manipulation again, and not adjust to prevailing realities – the Tories are no longer the pariahs they were made out to be in 1997 and onwards; and Labour cannot merely present themselves as having a monopoly on the public’s good-will. However, this is workable with, and may already have been exposed as a costly strategy by recent events.

11. Direction for Brown.

Page of Wands. The Page of Wands is a messenger, usually of good fortune, heralding great events affecting your chosen career. He is energetic, loyal, idealistic, resourceful and honest; the best kind of friend one could hope for. He can represent either the attitude you need in order to accomplish your aims – the part you must play towards someone of greater influence – or the person you should turn to for help to carry them out.

Although Brown is often more like a King than a Page, he needs to rediscover a certain questing nature and become much more responsive to events than he has been of late. He needs to be seen to act on hunches and intuition and not plod so much towards a not-so-inevitable demise. He needs to have a much lighter touch, and he also needs to see opportunities for progress much clearer and much quicker than previously.

12. Direction for Labour.

Knight of Swords. The Knight of Swords is bold and enthusiastic, but also imaginative and clever like his Queen. He is a great champion of good causes and inspires others by his idealism and dedication to any cause he adopts. He is decisive and, while others dither over a course of action, he will just plunge headlong into it and generally win the day. He is a symbol of creative upheaval, usually leading to success.

The emails I get from Labour suggest that they have a lot of good news they need to disseminate before both European and general elections and their pro-active and enthusiastic nature – rather than negative, carping, and sly tone – will be what Labour are involved in campaigning for during this summer and beyond. It may be very gung-ho and look at times almost desperate but it needs to be said that Labour’s enthusiasm for government is not dimmed by these poor results because the threat of a Tory government is managing to unite them into a more coherent force than previously. They should however be warned that the Knight of Swords can be too enthusiastic and too oblivious to opposing views and should not assume they can trample the Tories beneath their hooves as they previously could.

13. Solution for Brown.

V Pentacles. Traditionally this is a financially unlucky card, indicating problems and possible unemployment. Often these are caused simply by the fear of them happening, so you might be creating your own bad luck. By way of compensation, your love life should blossom, so try to be less materialistic. Occasionally, though, the card can signal a windfall.

Brown needs to go forward as if every vote hung on every word he says. He can’t take anything for granted, and he can’t be distracted from the difficulties of his term in office. He probably knows this, but nothing is simple and although he will try to win another term, his time after that will be limited given the nature of the British electoral cycle. If he wins, he will ultimately fail. That said, he need not fail this time round and should know exactly what resources he still has and use them wisely and creatively to the end of re-election.

14. Solution for Labour

Ace of Pentacles. The Ace of Pentacles represents perfect contentment and is often considered the luckiest card in the pack. The benefits are mainly material, but should promote a general sense of well-being that spills over into the emotional and spiritual spheres. This is a good time for beginning a new business venture or career. It can mean an unexpected windfall that will enable you to realise long-cherished dreams.

Labour are able to draw on a large source of new material and new ideas here – but so long as the Ace is balanced with the V as above, they need to keep themselves grounded in reality. The good omens from this card should mean they are well-balanced to keep themselves in contention, but they are facing an uphill battle to retain control of the agenda and keep the Tories out of government. Nevertheless this event or windfall makes this easier, rather than more difficult.

15. Overall outcome.

Queen of Pentacles. The Queen of Pentacles is regal, generous and diplomatic, ruling her suit in close partnership with her King and in much the same manner, although with perhaps a touch more warmth and understanding of human frailty. She has a good grasp of finances as well as being a generous and welcoming hostess. The card represents either someone you should turn to, or qualities you need to cultivate.

Another solid card, and not a disastrous outcome – a management of circumstances rather than inexorable decline or even collapse. Balanced development – perhaps not as potent as before but certainly able to maintain the government and even generate a bit more goodwill than at present.

 

The saga of Liam Fox’s continuing discontent with the Tory spending plans for defence goes on. The Mirror reports that he and Osborne are at loggerheads over commitments to various firms regarding contracts, suggesting splits opened last year (March 2008) are still open. Not surprisingly, Fox is a disgruntled leadership candidate, though any challenge would be punching severely above his weight and would not be welcomed by the party at large, not at the moment anyway. It’s also not a huge story, and obviously the Mirror, what with its massive splash a few weeks ago about Miss Whiplash and her four coked-up Tories, who are the publication of a book away from complete disaster. Allegedly, of course. But there is no smoke without fire – and this deserves scrutiny because it suggests problems later if the Tories can’t sort out a concrete budget on which their entire potential cabinet agrees.

Tory divisions are also always worth analysis...so here goes.

Situation.

The Hanged Man. You are at a life crossroads at which sacrifices and patience are needed if the right choices are to be made. Submit gracefully and all will be well. Life needs to be viewed from a fresh angle, and what may seem a total distraction to your plans may just take you in a fresh, creative direction. You may feel you are wasting time hanging around, but it will prove to be well worth your while.

In other words, although this may be a distraction, it exposes some kind of failings at the heart of Tory plans to spend less and the “fresh creative direction” may also be necessary to stop this being something that builds too much – too much for it to be confined to a left-wing tabloid trying to manufacture divisions. There may not be much here that could derail the Tories but there is a grain of truth in everything and the Tories need to sort this out before they find themselves hoisted – on their own petards.

1. Fox.

IX Wands. You enjoy well-earned success gained through honesty, hard work, and intelligence. However, troubles are brewing on the horizon, and you are soon likely to be tested to the very limits of your patience and ability. Take the time now to cultivate key allies, and check too that your finances are robust enough to cope with unexpected demands.

Fox is power-building here – trying to establish himself as a pivot point in power games and trying to cultivate allies who will assist him in any further power struggles by going over the heads of the rest of the Shadow Cabinet to appeal to traditional pro-defence Tory support. He is risking his own party’s future prosperity on short-term agitation, refusing to accept the end of a war (in the public’s and press’ eyes at least – it might give us crucial indication that all is not really so good in Tory territory) and building in the wrong direction – towards inevitable defeat rather than a solid win. Curious motivations but understandable if there really is a problem.

2. Osborne.

VIII Wands. The Eight indicates sudden progress that is possibly too fast for comfort, so try to slow things down a little and avoid over-hasty decisions that you might later regret. This is an exciting and well-starred time with travel, new business partnerships, and long-term romance all likely – just bear in mind that life is not always this easy, and plan for those rainy days.

Osborne needs as well to try and balance the needs of his party with expedient propaganda and current economic priorities. Defence is important to the Tory grassroots, and the Times analysis of the nature of the prospective parliamentary Conservative candidates suggests Fox may have some appeal if he plugs defence spending as a priority. Osborne probably has more public support than Fox does, but all the same, without party co-operation the Conservatives will not be able to call upon the foot-soldier resources to win the election outright. Even sites like Conservative Home have more right-wing tendencies than is common in the general public’s vision of the future; just because the Tories are currently more popular than Labour they cannot depend on the assent of the public for neglecting other areas of public spending to ring-fence defence. Osborne is on the right side here, but he is still risking the alienation of key supporters and key members of the Shadow Cabinet with axes to grind on other issues than just their own briefs. Owlperson confides that Fox would be doing this whatever his superficial portfolio, and is still smarting from being rejected in 2005, though he would not have been a more charismatic leader than his fellow Vulpes Vulpes.

3. Meeting point.

VI Pentacles. Financial success comes your way and justice demands that you pass the favour along. Just as others have taken a gamble on your talents, now it’s time for you to do the same, either by sponsoring some struggling aspirant or simply by sharing some of your profits with the less fortunate in the world.

Osborne will most likely accept that there is a pressing case to shore up any restless activists by giving Fox some sort of assurance that defence spending will be protected, but it will not be enough to satisfy the conflicting demands Fox merely exemplifies. There is some leeway for compromise but both men need to make sure these differences do not jeopardise party unity, nor do they unbalance any pretensions towards presenting the Tories as the friend of key services such as health and education.

4. Cameron.

The Emperor. The Emperor represents earthly power achieved through force of will, including war if necessary, though usually the card stands for stability, wealth, justice and the dominance of reason over emotion. It can represent an authority figure at work in the family, or the attitude necessary to carry plans through to fruition. Sometimes it’s necessary to put aside reflection and sympathy, and simply act.

Cameron needs to assert his authority over this to stop it mushrooming into full-blown splits, and it is fair to say that since it isn’t a huge story (yet) he can easily nip the problems here in the bud. Imposing authority on the situation won’t be difficult since Cameron can still muster enough of that kind of control in order to umpire this situation between squabbling underlings.

5. Underlying differences.

Ace of Wands ill-dignified. The reversed Ace warns of the danger of getting too attached to new beginnings that haven’t been thought through properly, of being unrealistic and not fully committed to your undertakings. There is a slim chance of success here, but only if you work at it.

The situation is volatile and unlikely to hold fast unless a real and lasting commitment is made to both sides of the argument – and for a party reliant on hope and expectations rather than hard facts and definite statements on policy and strategy that could mean there is a difficulty inherent in the situation which means instability rather than dynamism could result from any more creative tension within the party.

6. Underlying solutions.

The Lovers. Generally this card represents love and friendship on the worldly plane, marking a kindling or re-kindling of affection after troubles have been overcome. A major commitment could seriously affect the course of your life, and the climate is right for it to be a lasting and fruitful union. Complete honesty and trust are all that are needed to make the union work.

There needs to be a truce called and compromises made in order to safeguard the party from damaging splits. The party needs to bind itself into more than the sum of its parts, and merely parroting the latest doctrine on economic prudence (from “sharing the proceeds of growth” to the “age of austerity”) and putting down deeper roots into the realms of policy decisions which placate both public and party concerns and marry the two together as the husband and wife in this particular rendering of the card.

7. Roots of the situation.

Page of Swords. The Page of Swords represents someone who is adept at uncovering secrets and unravelling mysteries – a problem-solver, sleuth, and possibly even a spy. He can be trusted with secrets when given good reason. He is a good diplomat with a keen eye for creative compromise, able to act on his own initiative, and only give away what is necessary to achieve a goal. His taste for secrecy can be taken too far, however.

This encapsulates the attitude of the Tories to the general election in general and public spending in particular. Get through to the end and then reveal exact plans. Problem is, people want the King of Pentacles (administrative excellence, honest pro-activity, and balanced policy input and output) ruling the country, not the Page of Swords.

8. Seeds sown by the situation.

King of Pentacles. The King of Pentacles is wealthy, confident, commanding, inspiring and determined. He is conservative, hard-working, and leads by example. He is equivalent to Jupiter in astrology, the jovial ruler of the other planets and bounteous dispenser of wealth, which he naturally attracts. He is a loyal friend, wise counsellor, and a reliable, if cautious, partner.

And here he is. If the Tories can get this right, they can actually transcend the Page of Swords above and become the King of Pentacles below. It will take a lot of work reconciling the differences inherent in this situation, but anything is currently possible and it is their battle to lose.

9. Actions.

The Fool. A new beginning with fresh adventures ahead, although there is a very real danger of it all going horribly wrong. The bag on the Fool’s shoulder represents natural talents that he could usefully employ if he took the trouble to open the bag, but he generally doesn’t. For wild optimists this card is a warning to temper enthusiasms with a little common sense. For pessimists, it suggests lightening up a little.

This card suggests the Tories will for the time being ignore these disputes in pursuit of higher poll ratings than truly begin to address the dangerous aspects of moving forwards without examining things more closely. The longer this goes on the more unstable the situation gets. Since the King of Pentacles above suggests they can solidify and strengthen the manifesto by dealing with this, the Fool suggests they would be foolish just to keep the bag shut and trust that guile and the innocence of “change for a chance” will overcome in the end.

10. Words.

Four of Wands. It is now time for a well-deserved rest and the enjoyment of good company. Your plans were well-laid, so you can allow yourself to bask for a while as you see your ideas take shape in reality. This could also be a good time to consider moving house, or formalising a romantic attachment. Enjoy this time, but don’t allow complacency to creep in.

There is a lot of truth in this; the Tories seem to be lucky for the moment that Labour are no longer given the benefit of the doubt by the media, nor are they still the pariahs that they once were. This is cause for feeling good about oneself and confident of getting more of a fair hearing at the election. However there is the danger of complacency that other cards, particularly the Page of Swords root and The Fool’s actions, presage. The Tories may not have this splashed across the front page of the Times or Independent, but if they do not address it publicly then they risk it catching up with them for a third season. Fox needs to pipe down and let the leadership divvy up the public spending cake in accordance with economic needs and public priorities, but the leadership equally need to take the priorities of their members seriously and satisfy Fox’s ambitions before they turn dangerous. The next episode of this may not be in spring 2010 – it may be in summer 2009.

11. Development.

Knight of Pentacles. The Knight of Pentacles is useful, reliable, patient, persistent and loyal. He is cautious by nature, preferring evolution to revolution, but has courage enough when it is called for. He is not a great one for spiritual quests, preferring prizes you can hold in the hand over those of the heart and soul. A happy measure of wealth may come your way, but beware reckless spending.

The further progress of the situation may be that Fox is not content to see his brief sidelined at the expense of more pressing claims, or that Osborne prevails by convincing Fox that there is more need for hospitals rather than helicopters during this period of relative global peace and economic fluctuations. One of them has to win here, and will only be satisfied with material progress rather than promises or spin convincing the one to back down and cementing the other’s position. It needs to come to a practical solution, and will do so fairly soon.

12. Solution.

IV Swords. A temporary release from struggle. Use solitude to plan a way forward because the chances are that much will be demanded of you again soon. This can refer to either health or your personal life. Remember, with hindsight all the best achievements involve triumph over adversity.

Elements of this also need a withdrawal from hostilities by both parties and the issue to be defused before things get too dangerous for both men. Because it has not gone much further than the Mirror – as yet – there is hope that things can be averted rather than prolonged and allowed to damage the party in general.  

13. Outcome.

III Pentacles. A very promising outlook for new ventures is forecast, which calls for the exercise of all your best talents. Creativity flourishes in this situation, so bring out the artist or craftsman in you and do your best. You have a chance to prove your  mastery to the world and reap the rewards. Integrity is everything.

The Tories need to make sure that this card represents solid work in progress rather than just the flourishing of creative bonhomie which is not translated into solid effort or is allowed to proceed beyond the drawing board. It would please me more if this card was the VIII of Pentacles, which represents advanced craftsmanship. Still, it is a foundation of something solid which allows more work to be done. The Tories need to make sure that it is.

The Guardian has picked up on the Times’ front page suggesting Cameron is facing problems from female colleagues over his all-male economy team and reaction to equality issues in general. Although prominent candidates like Louise Bagshawe somewhat redress the balance for the Tories, there is still a large difference between the promotion of women within the Conservative Party and within Labour. It shouldn’t really matter if the Tories were really cruising towards victory, and although no doubt it will be met by much of the blogosphere with cat-calls of “is that the best you can do, Draper?” here in the real world it looks as if something approaching an Achilles Heel has been found.

Again, analysis here suggests this could be a running story, so without further ado...

Situation.

The Moon. A choice needs to be made that could determine your happiness for a long time ahead. You need to be guided by intuition and feelings when making this choice, but at the same time there is a real danger of delusion, of being misled by wishful thinking, or by someone whose judgement you trust. Times like these are true tests of character and your grasp on reality.

This is perhaps a test of Cameron’s suitability to lead in the long term as well as the short term. A government nowadays must govern for all, and Labour learned this a long time ago even when they were largely dominated by the male-orientated politics of the labour movement. This issue may not be a life-or-death, make-or-break dilemma for the Tories so much as it is a test of whether the party has matured sufficiently to form a government in times that are radically different to when it last returned to office – under, of course, a woman leader.

Public motivations.

III Cups. A fresh start leading to success is offered. Problems that have been troubling you for a while will finally be resolved, leading to a renewed sense of purpose and direction. This card can signal the birth of a child, new love, friendship, or even career, whichever it is will lead to joy and a feeling of abundance.

The party is being guided and advised with this – the newspapers, on the face of it, wish it to succeed in the new arena and are pointing out where the party still has a lot of work to do on its image and personnel. There is a superficial goodwill, though the actual motivation of both the Times and the Guardian may be laid bare by other cards. Supportive guidance, if not taken, however, may turn into impatience and frustration in time.

Public opinions.

V Wands. Gold, opulence and splendour come your way, but a rival is threatening your position. Resist the urge to score points and your enemy will end up exposing their own pettiness. Competitiveness is healthy up to a point but can become destructive if taken to extremes. Double-check everything you do, and the situation will resolve itself.

There is a resolve here to examine the Conservative alternative more forcefully and rigorously than previously – there is no easy ride even at this point where their poll ratings have immensely improved since the winter. Time is moving on too fast towards important elections for the party to slip past the finish post unexamined. They have pinned a lot of hope on appearing to have modernised the party but now the press are getting round to looking at a Conservative future – and finding that there are genuine problems still with Cameron’s “project”.

Underlying opinions.

The Chariot. Triumph through the careful balancing of opposites and courage in the face of danger are shown by this card. Turmoil, upheaval and excitement on a journey that can be metaphorical or real, but either way leave you feeling that you have arrived in a different place. Hard work at this stage is recognised and rewarded for a change, but be careful not to relax too soon.

My internal suspicions with this card is that the Tories are going fast towards a potential victory but that there are things being left undone and unsaid that need at some point to be broached by those interested in a victory. Dismissing this as just another Labour prong of attack will mean that the underlying problems are not addressed as soon as possible. It is because Cameron is taking short-cuts in his party’s development to get to the finish as quickly as possible that the media need to make sure they have backed the right horse as far as modern issues are concerned, and this may be a sign of frustration as much as a sign that the Tories are being taken seriously as a party of government. It is something that needs addressing – the Tories are going too fast and need to sort out any last minute wrinkles in their plans as soon as possible.

Underlying motivations.

Ace of Cups. The Ace of Cups represents the beginning of a period of joy, abundance, friendship, fertility, love and just about every other good thing you can think of on the emotional plane. It stands for the promise of being able to act out your dreams in a period of happy creativity while enjoying yourself along the way and being appreciated by those around you. Nonetheless, it will call upon all your finest qualities.

The Tories are being taken seriously – so there is every reason here to respond to the challenge with solutions that don’t just dismiss the reports as spin against them from the worst depths of the Labour propaganda machine. If it is taken seriously, it represents a way that the Tories can excel themselves. If taken as a threat or insult, however, it may not have the desired effect and end in denial and thus a bad ending for Cameron’s project and leadership.

Roots of the issue.

Queen of Wands. The Queen of Wands is a mature, practical person with a great down-to-earth wisdom. Charming, sympathetic, and graceful, she is less outgoing than her bold King but has very strong character and self-possession. She gets things done by talking to individuals rather than groups, and thus getting below the surface of events. Often she is the real leader of a group without it being noticed.

The issue here is of women, hence the Queen figure, and of manipulation of some sort behind the scenes leading to uncomfortable but perhaps necessary headlines. The manipulation is necessary – and a professional party would take it as a helpful intervention – but there is something within the Conservative establishment at the moment which is fixated on a short-term game rather than looking to solidify and substantiate gains, and the element of manipulation may here be taken as hostile criticism from a malevolent source rather than the spirit of free inquiry the media exists to provide. The Conservatives may feel the Queen is meddling in their affairs for an underhand purpose as they may feel it is their birthright to be feted by the press irrespective of pressing issues or flaws in their programme rather than the double-edged sword cutting both ways.

Seeds sown by the issue.

II Wands. A possible partnership offers a way of furthering your ambitions. Unnecessary self-doubt is blocking your way, however, so you need to be decisive and trust in your instincts. Or, if this is not possible, ally yourself to someone who has that confidence. The prospects are good – just have faith.

This does look like a genuine attempt to assist the Tories make good a deficit that they need to respond to to improve their standing with the public. At the last election, they had more ethnic minority candidates than the other main parties. Now they need to sort out the deficit in female representation and women’s issues. There is still an unwillingness to understand the criticisms as constructive rather than media manipulation; the complacency exhibited elsewhere suggests that the party may not see this as helpful even though it is given in good will. Much will depend on how the party rises to the challenge to attract female representatives and on what battlegrounds the election is really fought.

Cameron’s reaction.

Strength. This card signifies success through meeting problems head-on and overcoming them by strength of will. Perseverance, courage and determination combined with intelligence and modesty make an irresistible combination not only for teaching adversity but for encouraging others to come to your assistance. The strength of this card inspires others because its triumph benefits all.

Another reading of Strength is keeping problems at arm’s length, but Cameron on the face of it should not have any problems taking advice because his background suggests that he is receptive to criticisms of this sort. However, he will have to show that addressing the problem is important to him, otherwise any triumph will be shaky and built not on a rocky foundation but on the shifting sands of political fate which have been volatile in the past and could be so again if they are allowed to change too much again before the election.

Cameron’s actions.

Queen of Pentacles. The Queen of Pentacles is regal, generous and diplomatic, ruling her suit in close partnership with her King and in much the same manner, although with perhaps a touch more warmth and understanding of human frailty. She has a good grasp of finances as well as being a generous and welcoming hostess. The card represents either someone you should turn to, or qualities you need to cultivate.

The actions here may address the immediate issue but leave some other things unanswered. Cameron needs to take this advice on board, as he needs to take other advice from people with his best interests at heart. However, why is this advice offered now when candidates are filling up available slots? Should he not be pre-empting these issues and not leaving them to fester? He has had plenty of advice, plenty of people on his side, yet he often does not see the reason why the advice is given – if it has to be given now, what happened to the time when it would have been easier to come up with a balanced plan? Why has it been left until now to solve them reactively when he could have been a pro-active King? This card answers some immediate questions, but leaves the major, long-term issues unaddressed.

Direction of trend.

Seven of Pentacles. The Seven foretells a truly rewarding time. The possibilities before you are quite awesome, but do think in the long-term. Decide who you are and what you would like to remembered for by your family and friends. The choices you face really are that important. Destiny is at work.

So is anything being done to ensure Cameron has or leaves a lasting legacy, or is everything being jury-rigged to try and get an outright win without building foundations for a lasting government? Will we have to wait a lot longer for this to happen or will there come a point where the Seven turns into the constructive Eight and fulfilled Ten?

Solution.

X Swords. Traditionally this is the unluckiest card in the tarot pack, being the ruling number of the unluckiest suit. As such it signals calamity on almost any front – health, finances or romance­ – but it can also mean the ending of pointless commitments and the beginning of a fresh and wonderful stage of your life.

This is another example of the hand of fate at work. Cameron seems to be blocked by this wherever and whatever the situation at hand. It comes even after a succession of good cards and optimistic opinions for Cameron, and may be the shoots of seeds sown years back. If he can overcome this card he will go on to better things. However, that seems now to be a big if.

Outcome.

King of Swords. In astrology the character of Saturn in his benign aspect closely resembles that of the King of Swords. He represents power, authority and the law, splitting complex arguments with the edge of his sword. His judgements can at times seem lacking in tolerance of human frailty, but are never unfair. The card usually represents an authority figure that the querent can look to for justice.

The person to whom the responsibility falls is a figure not known for warmth or “modernity” but is needed and expected to take the issue by the horns and enforce some sort of rigour in the hazy light of the party and its prospects. This strike needs to be made by someone who can enforce order and expose problems within the programme for government, as well as take a lot of the advice given by this and other issues on board and use it to return the party to government in the middle of difficulties for the current government and the country looking for change. If this cannot be done by current leaders, then another must be found to improve the party’s long-term prospects as well as continue the current game of political poker. It needs Zeus with his thunderbolts to restore order to the party, but Vulpes Vulpes has never taken this particular role seriously and may pay the price as a result.

Interesting news about Blair’s continued presence in the political firmament in this country. Although lately Blair seems to have become persona non grata, he weighed in (according to the Telegraph) by slamming the 50p top rate of tax. New Labour apparatchiks – notably Stephen Byers and Charles Clarke – have never been happy with Gordon’s direction. However, although Blair may have left these shores for a vague role somewhere as something (not quite sure what but it seems to be mostly composed of meeting Obama for prayer breakfasts, pontificating on the pontiff’s own pontifications, or spending two minutes in the Middle East for two days a year), he still exerts an influence of sorts (if only on the selection procedure in Erith and Thamesmead CLP). He is obviously still seen as a selling point by the Diet Torygraph, although it could be said he could not in the end establish the sort of presence Margaret Thatcher still asserts.

Rumours abound – again, perhaps as a misreading of his popularity with the electorate – that he might be tempted to endorse Cameron rather than Brown at the next election, though my own feelings and hunches suggest he would stick with Labour.

I’ll leave this one to the Tarot. I’m going to go back to putting in the printed descriptions used in the booklets, as it’s an area which I don’t really think I am over-qualified to speak on, having left the Labour party five years ago and not knowing much about the internal debates which I left behind back then.

Situation.

VIII Wands. The Eight indicates sudden progress that is possibly too fast for comfort, so try to slow things down a little and avoid over-hasty decisions that you might later regret. This is an exciting and well-starred time with travel, new business partnerships, and long-term romance all likely – just bear in mind that life is not always this easy, and plan for those rainy days.

Blair and Brown both recognise that much more is now at stake than it ever was when they blithely spun and misrepresented themselves back into the driving seat in 2005 (though I do believe that Brown showed a lot of his true colours during the campaign when he appeared at one point to be setting out his own stall on foreign policy – promising parliamentary endorsement for all declarations of intent to go to war – rather than concentrating on his Treasury brief). They are realising that Labour is going full tilt towards the buffers and if they squeak back in this time they might find that they are irrevocably lost the next time to a larger Tory landslide than is perhaps possible this time round. Both men are realising that the time is coming to act, but it is the nature of this action which will be key to whether they can both pull together for the sake of their own party rather than someone else’s.

1. How Blair views Brown.

King of Cups. The King is generous, honest, level-headed, kind and cultured. He takes his responsibilities seriously and champions peace and the arts of civilisation. He can be a formidable opponent in war, but only as a last resort. He is a great patron of the arts and sciences, and when in a favourable position in a spread his presence should be taken as an encouragement to make plans on a great scale.

Blair still has respect for Brown, and sees him as a King in charge of his spiritual and emotional legacy as well as the policy agenda which has kept New Labour afloat for longer than “Old” Labour could manage. Blair is not yet fundamentally at odds with Brown and does not belittle him or his ability and Brown cannot be said yet to have lost the support of his predecessor.

2. How Brown views Blair.

Page of Pentacles. Intuitive, sensitive, creative, and hard-working, the Page is a successful student with psychic tendencies of which he is not always conscious. The card can signify good news such as success in a test or examination, or the attitude needed to make it happen. He can be a bit of a dreamer, though, so engrossed in whatever project he is focussed upon that everyday life may fall apart around him.

Brown does not share the same appreciation of his predecessor’s practical ability to govern effectively – the comments in 2005 that I distinctly remember suggests to me that Brown’s fundamental disagreement with Blair was in the realm of domestic administration. Brown is uncomfortable with what the Blairites have come to worship in politics – celebrity, glitter, the ability to be known from California to Canberra and back again – and sees it as less important than the focus and dedication to domestic issues that Blair neglected. The feelings may be the reverse of what people believe – that Brown has a harder time with the remnants of Blairism and the corresponding “Cameroon” tendency than (at least) Blairism has with him.

3. How the public views Brown.

VI Pentacles. Financial success comes your way and justice demands that you pass the favour along. Just as others have taken a gamble on your talents, now it is time for you to do the same, either by sponsoring some struggling aspirant or simply by sharing some of your profits with the less fortunate in the world.

The public is not overly hostile with Brown, and this can be shown in the recent ComRes poll putting the Tories back behind Labour when it comes to economic management, despite the drop in overall ratings precipitated largely by Smeargate. The public are wedded to the sort of economic justice dispensed by Labour, and although that may not any longer be sustainable the gamble they are still taking is that Labour do still know largely what they are doing whereas the Tories seem to take a short-term skirmish approach to policy-making without thinking hard enough in the long run what they believe they can afford to put forward. Labour need to say this louder and clearer, and to stick to positive aspects of a programme for “austerity”, but potentially the public still listens despite feeling aggrieved with short-term difficulties and tactical blunders.

4. How the public views Blair.

The Hanged Man. You are at a life crossroads at which sacrifices and patience are needed if the right choices are to be made. Submit gracefully, and all will be well. Life needs to be viewed from a fresh angle, and what may seem a total distraction to your plans may just take you in a fresh, creative direction. You may feel you are wasting your time hanging around, but it will prove to be well worth your while.

Blair had come to the end of his road in 2007 when he left office and despite the problems for his predecessor he too would have damaged Labour more if he had continued in office rather than stepped down when he did. The public do not think much of him anymore, and his absence from the cut-and-thrust of domestic affairs serves to sever much of the attachment the public had to him in the first place. He cannot influence people that much even if he were to endorse a rival party, and it would be viewed with scepticism if he did rather than mean that the Tories could really crow about that support. He does not mean much to the electorate except as an historical figure, and does not raise the same debates over his influence or legacy as Margaret Thatcher still does. He is, essentially, a non-person.

5. Roots of the current issues.

The Emperor. The Emperor represents earthly power achieved through force of will, including war if necessary, though usually the card stands for stability, wealth, justice and the dominance of reason over emotion. It can represent an authority figure at work or in the family, or the attitude necessary to carry plans through to fruition. Sometimes it’s necessary to put aside reflection and sympathy, and simply act.

One of the tabloids showed a cartoon where Brown was in a graveyard alongside “dead” Blairite ministers (including Stephen Byers and Charles Clarke) rising from their graves to drag him down with them. Blair’s tomb was shaking with an ominous rumble. Perhaps this cartoonist had superb foresight – Blair weighing in to contemporary debates was not unforeseeable, given Margaret Thatcher often did so to try and damage Major (Owlperson gives me permission to write that; on the visit I made to Brighton recently his fear at going past the Grand Hotel gave me insight into how much he is deeply linked to the spirit of Conservatism and that makes me trust him even more when channelling his opinions on the 1980s and 1990s). Blair is trying to assert his authority, though this may not be as resonant with the public as he hopes, and his esteem for Brown in the King of Cups does not suggest he is trying to deliberately ruin his successor’s chances of re-election.

6. Seeds of future developments.

VIII Cups. Restlessness causes you to question many aspects of your life and possibly with good cause, as maybe it is time for some major changes. But remember that it is your own restlessness and need for a sense of purpose that is driving you. Others will not appreciate being blamed for what is basically your problem.

It may be possible for Brown and Blair to make some progress towards a synthesis of views here rather than completely falling out over it. Although the problems seem to be personally on Brown’s side rather than Blair’s the need for development of the situation is immediate if Labour are to win the next election and avoid annihilation this June. It looks like the situation is not so disastrous that moving on is still an option before the Tories get their policy and social agenda worked through properly, presumably at this autumn’s conference. Blair may not be trying to ingratiate himself with the other side – yet – because he still believes this progression at the heart of his current party is possible.

Situation 2 – progression of the issue.

The Chariot. Triumph through the careful balancing of opposites and courage in the face of danger are shown by this card. Turmoil, upheaval, and excitement on a journey that can be metaphorical or real, but either way leave you feeling that you have arrived in a different place. Hard work at this stage is recognised and rewarded for a change, but be careful not to relax too soon.

The development of the situation looks good for Labour but the Chariot comes with a warning that the forces involved are too powerful for anyone to control and might produce a reaction that could be damaging to all concerned. Forces which propel Labour forward may rip them apart later on if they are put to the wrong ends – maintaining themselves in power by means that gave rise to Smeargate, for example, or trying to meddle in arts that worked in 2005 (such as the mole who led to Michael Howard sacking Howard Flight which amazingly did not rebound on the mischief-makers) but which didn’t work in 2009 and won’t in 2010 if tried again.

7. Involvement of Cameron/Conservative party.

X Cups. This card represents a happy home life, contentment at work, and good standing in your community, all of which are the result of diligent application and energy. You have established a stable and honoured place for yourself and your loved ones in the world. Traditionally this is the luckiest card in the Tarot for newly-weds.

Cameron has the esteem of Blair and is regarded as a fitting successor by Gordon’s predecessor, despite the good opinion Blair still has for Brown in private. It could be said that the former Prime Minister, like Margaret Thatcher, could bestow a muted blessing on a kindred spirit, with the proviso that there is little of substance in this card and the depth of the honour and energy that goes with it is in outward appearance rather than solid reality.

8. Involvement of the Labour Party.

VI Cups. Nostalgia is likely to affect you as you become aware of just how many current events have their roots way back in your distant past. This is healthy up to a point because you will soon face a major life choice, and drawing upon the lessons of the past can help ensure that you make the right decision in the near future. Also, seek the advice of old friends.

Blair is more popular than Brown among the Labour membership still and the party may believe that Blair as a winner was more attractive a proposition going in to 2009-2010 than Brown as a potential loser. However this is based on hindsight and the economic difficulties faced since Blair left office could have distorted the party’s views much more than their opinions at the time of Blair’s departure showed. Nostalgia may hold the Labour Party back but changing realities do mean that they would probably have had to cope with the swing of the pendulum back towards the Conservatives anyway, and the party is currently retreating – perhaps dangerously – into a funk from which it may not emerge in time to fight the election. Only the difficulties facing the Tories in terms of substance stand between them, perhaps, and Downing Street if the warnings inherent in this card are not heeded.

9. Involvement of the Press.

V Wands. Gold, opulence, and splendour come your way, but a rival is threatening your position. Resist the urge to score points and your enemy will end up exposing their own pettiness. Competitiveness is healthy up to a point, but can become destructive if taken to extremes. Double-check everything you do, and the situation will resolve itself.

The healthy competition for Labour for the press’ attentions has not yet reached the point at which there is no ability for them to get their message across, however troubling the times, but the rivalry between Blair and Brown has come out through the press – and through a rival side trying to goad Brown into turning on his Blairite colleagues in order to further damage the Labour side. It will only work if Brown rises to the bait; I don’t think he feels that the press is important in this regard, particularly anything to do with the Daily Telegraph. However there is a problem here and further tensions could turn the Wands of dynamic, “creative” anarchy into the Swords of leadership tension and ultimate destruction.

10. Underlying issues.

V Cups. Unhappiness and dissatisfaction cast a shadow over your relationships. Dwelling too much upon the past will only make the situation worse. What you need is a renewal of vision and it will come if you are patient, but in the meantime, resist laying the blame for this situation on those around you. The problem lies within you.

Labour need to look at their own failings and build on them rather than lash out or grow despondent. The Tories are no longer useless, or what I used to call “lovably pants”; although they have serious flaws and obstacles to their own power there is no use assuming they can’t fight their way out of a paper bag. This is down to the Howard and Cameron leaderships; Howard’s ability to put policies forward in a strong and coherent way was perhaps more dangerous than Cameron’s difficulties in doing so but the electoral cycle has moved inexorably onward such that this may not matter before this election (though the Tories better have a redeveloped and more consistent social agenda to show the electorate in 2015 if this current lightweight agenda cannot find its target). Labour now recognise this, and thus need to pull themselves together to fight for what, according to their propaganda emails, does still seem a buoyantly positive image of what Labour has always wanted to bring into reality. It would be, in my opinion as a former member and current voter, a shame to waste all this in a shower of Smeargates.

11. Underlying opinions.

The Hierophant. Providing comfort, security, the wisdom of the ages, and generosity in others’ time of need are among the many virtues of the Hierophant that make him someone to turn to in troubled times. But inflexibility – a lack of openness to change – can often negate these virtues. Too great a reverence for the past can become hostility toward all change, and then the Hierophant symbolises an obstacle to growth. He can also indicate marriage or other lasting union.

The underpinning at least for Labour is sound because there is a belief there in the way forward that perhaps the Tories either lack altogether or believe that a Potemkin village provides an adequate replacement. There is a warning that regression or nostalgia for the Blairite past may get in the way of the reduction in expectations needed at this point in the electoral cycle, and that by no fault of their own they now find themselves on a downswing. As a politician, my future lies with the Conservatives, but as someone currently working outside politics I have the luxury of seeing both parties at arm’s length and both leaderships with their virtues and flaws. I think at this point these opinions may be common to a lot of those who do believe Labour may be winding down operations but are still capable of winning a slim majority when it comes to the crunch.

12. Underlying developments.

IV Swords. A temporary relief from struggle. Use solitude to plan a way forward because the chances are that much will be demanded of you again soon. This can refer to either health or your personal life. Remember, with hindsight, all achievements involve triumph over adversity.

A period where Labour can begin to renew itself after a difficult month. The Tory challenge appears to be such that the party is much better to concentrate on governing and developing new ideas as opposed to trying to take the political struggle much further in a climate where the Tories are the ones given the benefit of the doubt. Labour need to build on their “comparative advantage” and let Mandelson take care of the spin, as he has been an asset in the past and may be so again when it comes to selling what Brown has been putting together for a while now.

13. Development in general.

V Swords. Destruction, waste, and loss threaten to undermine your spirits, but do bear in mind that they are only temporary. You may justly be feeling bad, but beware of getting caught up in a negative spiral. The conditions will pass, and you can still achieve your goals if you learn the lessons of the current setback and apply them next time around.

Politics is not totally avoidable, and Labour may be feeling embattled by the cut and thrust of damaging assaults by the Tories – though they should remember that this is mere politics, and they still hold a lot of policy trump cards as far as the social policy agenda has developed over the Cameron leadership (i.e., not much challenge there). Defeats need to be taken on the chin, and victories turned into positive moments rather than moments for hubris to consume the party and for it to return to any hint of the dirty tricks Blair employed in 2003-2005 against Howard, an opponent Owlperson tells me he reserved a deep hatred for – mutual, if Owlie is to be believed. Brown has talent and must not waste it fighting his own party, and particularly not his own predecessor, if he is to see any improvements.

14. Solution.

IV Wands. It is now time for a well-deserved rest and the enjoyment of good company. Your plans were well-laid, so you can allow yourself to bask for a while as you see your ideas take shape in reality. This could also be a good time to consider moving house, or formalising a romantic attachment. Enjoy this time, but don’t allow complacency to creep in.

Labour’s challenge is now to get on with the job and let actions speak louder than words, creating stability rather than always seeking to get even with their opponents and rival factions. The construction of some sort of recovery and plans to share this with everyone must be a priority, as the Tory cuts in themselves may still be such that they are either derisory or cut away stable structures in governance because of a reactionary suspicion of modern ideas and ideals, despite Cameron’s professed desire to take the Tories forward. Labour have the levers of power to use – so they should use them as much as they can.

15. Outcome.

VI Wands. You benefit from triumphant and well-earned success as careful plans and hard work bear fruit. Be magnanimous in victory, and your moment of glory will be prolonged. This is no time for remembering petty insults and injuries suffered along the way because if you forget them, so will others.

The war goes on, but the battle is winnable and is a clash between two political heavyweights which can improve rather than batter Labour’s chances. If Blair is unhappy, he is not unhappy with Brown himself but with a direction which he would not allow while in power. He is not trying to sabotage Labour or endorse Cameron; rather he feels he is trying to improve Labour’s prospects and knows an effective way to do it. The victory is temporary but the possibility for Labour to ride out this difficulty and turn negatives into strong – but still unstable – positives may help in the long term to give Brown a helping hand and stop him from going under to what is a Conservative Party unable to cope with the rigours of government.

In my opinion David Cameron made his best speech before he became leader – and as soon as he had achieved that landmark, he immediately became a waffling bore who for a while seemed fixated on making speeches bemoaning the break-up of society (coincidentally when the heat was turned up underneath him) and who has failed in three-and-a-half years to say anything of substance regarding what he would do as leader of the country, not just of his party. Politics isn’t a zero-sum game. Government is not just winning a comfortable majority and then winging it – those who really capture the imagination of the country are those like Thatcher or Blair who fight for their vision of society rather than run with any old thing that happens to be going on in the press, make boring platitudes such as “let sunshine reign!” and then disappear from view for weeks on end (I ended up loudly declaiming to anyone within earshot, “I wish there was something interesting in the papers” – and then suddenly the Smeargate scandal broke L L L!).

The party are probably enjoying themselves at the moment but did yesterday’s speech to the party’s Spring Forum make much difference? Let’s ask my cards.

CAMERFOX’S SPEECH TO SPRING FORUM

Situation.

The World. Or, the conference at the end of the universe. An apostheosis of sorts – or is it Camerdammerung? This card usually denotes some kind of ending rather than mere triumph. Vulpes Vulpes has reached some sort of peak, yes, but that peak is unstable and will implode in on himself if he does not come down off this high and put his nose to the grindstone. He can’t continue without some kind of ending taking place, in other words.

1. Party viewpoint.

II Wands. This card suggests a decision-making point has been reached before the final push; a challenge is faced to make the right choice from two equally persuasive ideas available. These options are distinct and clear to the party; they may even represent a dilemma. The party is the one who eventually has to carry this forward and I think it still has reservations about the particular way forward as a lot of it is still not as liberal as Cameron would like, and although its poll ratings have once again bounced back to a reasonable level at which to go into a general election, the difficulties of not having the ability to make choices based on concrete policies or sell those to the public may still mean that the government trumps the party on policy. The arithmetic is still stacked against the party should the polls prove unstable. Therefore the party has to choose whether to believe in its leadership or question it still on the absence of policy, making sure it takes a pro-active stance in any decision it does make.

2. Media viewpoint.

Judgement. This is a critical point at which the media is beginning to make its mind up, but the Judgement card may mean here that the media’s judgement will not go in the Tories’ favour if they cannot actually perform properly as a serious governing party rather than making empty gestures towards vague savings which it believes can be found from waste in the system – including a few issues that were trailed in Saturday’s online papers suggesting that they believed some bodies like the Electoral Commission (?!!) were superfluous to requirements. This suggested to me the party is still immaturely unaware that even right-wing governments need to preserve some essential bureaucracy and make efforts to streamline procedures rather than cut out whole areas of provision. (As a good example, in a rural area where passing wildlife likes the contents of human bin bags, Wokingham Council do not provide us with wheelie bins. Conservatism in action...feed the foxies today!) There might be some disappointments in this speech which mean the party does not get the direct endorsement that it seeks – and it begins to be too late to make more detailed plans to win this critical support. The Sun is still sitting on the fence with “it’s your choice” ending its budget-day leader. This needs to come right round before the Tories can push on upwards to a 50% rating and beyond, mandatory if they want to win the election.

3. Public view.

IX Cups. The public is calmly satisfied with its current lot and although they see the Tories as a viable proposition there is no head-over-heels-in-love element to this card – it is a carnal, indulgent symbol rather than transcendent love for the party which is driving the poll results at the moment. This is not a strong enough card to base anything more than a possible win on, and in previous parts of the electoral cycle the longevity of New Labour and the difficulties of making up a 150-seat deficit before the Tories even get an overall majority, still less current projections of one of 100+ seats. They still have a long way to go before they have the public momentum to get over this hurdle, particularly in parts north of the West Midlands, where Cameron has yet to broaden his real appeal. Not enough definite, positive support to appeal long into a hard-fought general election campaign.

4. Underlying opinions.

IX Coins. The results so far are good enough – why bother trying to lift the party into the stratosphere? We’ve won already, we just have to wait it out and sit on our hands. A good idea, but one likely to lead to recriminations after the event rather than any extra lift for their current campaign and leadership.

5. Underlying issues.

IV Coins. Again, another supremely defensive card, trying to sneak past the electorate for fear they will reject the true face of Tory policies and ideology. The Tories are risk-averse, unable to show their cards for fear they will either be stolen by Labour or put off wavering voters who still are reluctant to admit the party’s past rather than its bright, Cameroon future. The party however shows an insecurity in this and may not feel it is genuinely popular enough to withstand a Labour campaign in the spring. They are mistaking silly ideas where waste exists for a genuinely radical and expansive social policy agenda that, although making cuts and streamlining procedures, still qualifies as good governance and not cheap populist words which don’t have the requisite thought behind them to balance the social budget. Since their policy on social inclusion extends only to making marriage a more important part of policymaking, I’m not sure they really yet grasp the complexities of modern social management or have the understanding of what Tony Blair called “joined up government”. Compassionate conservatism is empty, defensive, weasel-words. We need to see more competency and more of a specific social agenda before the Tories will have matured into a capable governing party. And yet, we never have.

6. Roots of the speech.

V Swords. This card suggests that recent victories have not been utilised to a positive good and remain simply vindictive strikes against what the Tories feel is a corrupt and decaying government but is in reality one that still has a coherent agenda in maintaining its interests elsewhere in policy terms while for the moment conceding ground on day-to-day politics. There is a feeling that currently Labour are destroying themselves, and the way to win power is to hasten that process, but in reality the voters vote on policy and will punish the Tories unexpectedly if the Cameroons think nothing else need be done than allow the V Swords to cripple their opponents.

7. Seeds of the speech.

Page of Pentacles. A cautious beginning in the week before what should be a general election (if we were dealing with what has become a normal 4-year parliament). The beginnings of something concrete – but still only fragile experimentation, most notably because they keep changing the emphasis of their policies. Nothing yet of direct solidity or definite stature. And still a long way to go to grow into the role of government.

8. Developments for Cameron.

VIII Wands. Momentum, but of an uncontrolled and unfocussed sort, and at the expense of coherency. There is the potential here to go so fast the car crashes into a brick wall at 70 mph. Images of Kinnock in Sheffield spring to mind.

9. Developments for the party.

X Coins. The party begins to solidify itself and its message and take seriously the need for policy action as well as political swashbuckling. Something happens to bring this need to the forefront of discussions and establish a base from which to launch a successful campaign.

10. Narrative going forwards.

VII Cups. The party has too many conflicting ideas of what it should do to realise the significance of the X Coins above. There are so many different needs and different agendas here that someone will need to separate out what is true from what is false and to take the lead in choosing what leads to follow up to make sure the party has a coherent plan for a long-lasting government. This might also suggest delusions that the party could win big at this level of output, but there is also a need for cutting through the fog that clouds the minds of people who really ought to know how to run a country as complicated as modern Britain. Cameron’s policies suggest he is interested in running a prosperous city state along the line of the Chicago Boys rather than the disparate communities making up Britain. He has to get a handle on this or he will be pulled under.

11. Balance of Probabilities.

X Swords. A second appearance for this damaging card (third including my own readings). In this situation, again, it may be failure here that leads to ultimate success – under someone else if needs be. The hour of reckoning is clearly visible, and if the party wants to succeed, it may have to cut the cords holding it back and put things into more concrete terms – even against the wishes of its own leadership.

12. Solution.

Temperance. This is the need for genuine thought and exposition of issues hitherto swept under the carpet. Facing these difficulties now might set the party on a direct course for victory, as things cannot really proceed without a direct and positive agenda, rather than the fragmented and ever-changing rhetoric that the Tories rely on. There needs to be concentrated, focussed effort now, and the party needs to press this onto the leadership in order to really succeed rather than just walk the tightrope into the election campaign it is facing within the year.

13. Outcome.

Death. A radical and definite change – there is no escaping the needs which will become apparent now that the speech has been made and not been used to promote the proper agenda the Tories need to govern. It is not too late to transform the current reliance on politics into a positive policy programme – but they left it too late last time, and seem to have learned nothing. Although this is a cataclysm, it is also a necessary rebirth – to continue on the way the Tories are going, they will face this either now or at the election, and for all those like me who do want a change, the sooner they face it, the better.

...for whom the Everton-Chelsea cup final has definitely been abandoned, as per my dream the other night.

Poor old Phil.

I think we can safely say the match will still go ahead but for Jagielka - the FA Cup is over.

An interesting item appears in the Times regarding a new book going into gory detail about the relationship between David Cameron and Boris Johnson suggests that the battle of wits between the two may escalate at some stage, particularly if Boris, who has found power has grounded him in reality and quite often finds himself at odds with pure party doctrine (I wouldn’t yet say policy), is the reality of a Conservative administration taking over from a longish period Labour rule. Does London provide the basis for a national government or does it show that Conservative policy is naive and superficial compared to what needs to be done? Of course Boris denies that there is any split but although his lead over Cameron in the Conservative Home poll is not enough to be damaging to either man, the disconcerting thing is that the Tories are starting to talk about Boris as a potential leadership candidate if he returns to Parliament after a brief stint as mayor. I’m not sure I’d really vote for Boris as PM – I wouldn’t fancy his chances appealing to the electorate at large if competency and reliability was an issue; Vulpes Vulpes has difficulty on that point still in my own experience – but it merits a mention here because I thought VV was supposed to have finally stopped the party from prolonging the toxic battles which have dogged them for 20 years.

It seems whatever the difference between people and however small that difference actually is, it intensifies rather than lessens the tensions between them. As far as I am concerned I would vote for neither at any election on which the future of anything above parish council level depended, but it merits an article here because it is the first hook I’ve had in a long time regarding internal disputes and debates which really ought to have been settled.

I’ll look at the relationship here now with the tarot, as always. By the way, Boris is a frog-totem, which predictably emphasises the fun and jollity of life at the expense of seriousness, groundedness (now, if he were a toad...) and having a solid base, but I’m pleased that Boris has not turned out to be a total disaster even if I did wish he would give up pontificating in the Torygraph and concentrate on snowploughs instead.

Situation/Relationship at heart.

High Priestess. A more balanced and calm relationship than this article demonstrates; the two men provide a centre of gravity for the Conservative Party as it currently is and if there is any tension it is in rivalry rather than opposites generating friction. The two men are working towards the same ends and are joined by a mutual reserve rather than open battling. However the Priestess warns of a stand-off in some areas where disputes are not manifesting themselves; the two men keep their own households and this could at some point – though not right now – generate a centrifugal force over smaller issues.

BORIS:

Significator.

Knight of Wands. Boris is a dilettante but he is experimental and has the dignity of office to raise him above mere thought into actions and the direction (though not whole control) of political gains. He is however ungrounded in the sense that he picks and chooses where to apply this energy rather than being consistent and balanced in office.

Viewed by media.

Knight of Swords. The media find Boris impetuous and unbalanced; his recent tantrum at the meeting to discuss the snow crisis and his handling of it led to an undignified exit which was unbecoming of an executive authority and showed contempt for scrutiny. Boris is trying to rule as he has in the past thought – as a cad, a bounder and a rogue – rather than develop meaningful gravitas. Nevertheless, the dynamism of this card has not yet brought him serious problems and as a figure who has an extensive retinue of civil servants to implement his plans he may well for now be getting away with things. Nevertheless what concerned me about this was that Cameron felt he was not up to the job of mayor in the first place and could not maintain the level of output he does without boredom setting in, ambition taking over, and the use of this platform for wider political ends rather than, like Livingstone before him, allowing it to define his purpose in life and use it to enrich his constituents as well as his own coterie.

Viewed by public.

VI Wands. A success, but a temporary and unstable one. Boris may currently be popular but he may not see lasting popularity if he keeps the buffoon act going for much longer and the tide begins to turn again away from the Conservatives.

Viewed by party.

VI Coins. A fortuitous nuisance – someone who demonstrates the ability of the Conservative Party to govern a major city again but one who is the sum of his parts and a means to an end rather than who enjoys a healthy respect and esteem beyond what he can do for making sure the Conservatives win the next election. The material suit of coins is not here in its fullest element but at least he is not an outright disappointment or embarrassment, just that he matters to them only as a hand on the levers of power and a demonstration of the possibilities of a Conservative government to enact its policies, which has been absent for a while.

Balance of probabilities.

The Fool. Boris was a risk that some believe was worth taking and because he represented the return of the Conservative party to active government, the electorate regard him probably as a gamble as well. His demeanour under parliamentary scrutiny means he has a long way to go to demonstrate executive competency and grace under pressure, but it does seem likely that, contrary to fears and doubts in 2004 and 2005, the party is once again seen as a viable proposition for government and the electorate is largely satisfied to take that risk again now.

Chances of succession.

Judgement. There is an element in which Johnson may be involved in any possible succession issue here and the inescapable fate forecast by this card is puzzling to those who think that any leadership discussion at this stage is largely academic because of Vulpes Vulpes’ apparent success as Conservative leader. Unfortunately Judgement is not a card which leaves any room for doubt that the issue will come up in a striking and definite way sooner or later, though of course no indication of timing can be given, and I am always wary of making definite prognoses based on a card which I read intuitively rather than psychically.

Chances of re-election.

Page of Wands. Boris needs to seem fresh and challenging to retain much of his appeal, and this is a diminution of his current standing as the Knight of Wands, so I would say that a lot depends, like his election last year, on the relationship not between Boris and his opponent in personal terms but on the relationship between Labour and the Conservatives in 2012. It may be that Boris’ appeal wanes if he cannot ground himself and take office and its responsibilities seriously, and his amateurish attitude and basely political outlook, like so much of the Conservative platform, have limited appeal when attempting to unite the country rather than turn it against an unpopular government as a genuine protest against Labour misrule. If the reasons for his election as a Conservative are taken away, then his personal standing may be diminished as a result.

CAMERON.

Significator.

The Hermit. The Hermit is isolated and deep in thought, and Cameron here is withdrawing purposefully from the world. Perhaps this is to pace himself for the general election and not disclose much in the way of policy weight, but there is also an element of secrecy and opacity of purpose and this needs to be made clearer in the coming months. Boris is too outgoing for his job, but Cameron may be too introspective or need to appear much more transparent to go further than his current position.

Viewed by media.

VIII Coins. Cameron is still given the benefit of the doubt that Conservative policies are under construction and this may be to do with the continuing good fortune in the polls. Nevertheless, completion is still not evident and prolonging this period may end up in the Tories losing the time needed to persuade the electorate to accept a radical new direction rather than to remain on familiar ground. It bedevilled Neil Kinnock in 1992 and it looks like it could bring the Conservatives lower than low if something radical does not come out of CCHQ during this summer and autumn.

Viewed by public.

The Lovers. The choice here will be a decisive one and the public is still to make up its mind based on feelings rather than cold rationality. The public is warming towards the Conservatives in general but is still at the point at which the choice is being made rather than that the public is set in its overall opinion which won’t change before next June. The Lovers also indicates the presence of rivals and that the decision being made is a major transition and development which will last as long as the average marriage in this country – solid for the moment, but open to question later on if the partner does not perform adequately in bed.

Viewed by party.

X Cups. Cameron has managed to keep the party quiet at this stage of the electoral cycle and provide them with the exposure and development they need, as well as the confidence of people taking them seriously. However this remains fluid and translates not into a real, true, solid love but a feeling which can be undone by the wind starting to blow in the opposite direction.

Balance of probabilities.

X Swords. The card does not follow on from the above benign reading, being the card of damage, ruin and destruction, a comprehensive defeat. It could be said that this is prediction dependent not on the elements that Cameron himself is putting into the situation but something unpredictable, unforeseeable and events conspiring to knock Vulpes Vulpes out prematurely. The intensity of the card is enhanced by it coming out reversed which suggests that destruction is total and results in the debilitation of what Cameron came here to do, rather than being mitigated or annulled by Cameron’s sly manoeuvrability as a politician who says a lot but does correspondingly little until he is forced to nail his colours to the mast. This may prove to be an inescapable problem, but then Fate often takes a hand at some point and the damage is swift and retributive in nature.

Chances of succession.

VIII Cups. If Cameron wants to succeed to the premiership he needs to find out what is necessary and do it, and find out what is unnecessary and ditch it. The VIII of Cups is a card of leaving behind a path which is unsatisfactory, so changing something that is not working is, in this case, more important than adding or subtracting from the current programme. A change of direction before his dreams can be made reality is pressing and needs to be made before it becomes too difficult to manoeuvre out of a situation which could easily become quite dangerous and unstable, as in the X Swords above.

Chances of election.

VII Coins. The patience and hard work needs to pay off for Cameron in particular if he is going to realise his ideals and assume office. The frustration and impatience of this card needs to be assuaged in order to realise the goals he has set himself and the party for government. Development of a stable programme rather than one that just wins on the day is a must if he is going to be taken seriously, and articulation of this programme is long overdue if he wants to escape disquiet and frustration among his silent backbench and membership. Johnson takes the lead because he has executive authority; Cameron needs to say precisely what he would do with his if given the chance.

CONCLUSION

Strength. The two men are still bound together by self-control and discipline, and neither will want to be drawn into questioning about their respective views of their futures, nor of the discussions that have gone on before the election of Johnson to the mayoralty or Cameron to the leadership. Both men have problems with their view of the other’s competency but neither will want to damage each other in the run-up to the election. However control of these forces is not the same as the absence thereof.

OUTCOME

IV Swords. The tensions remain in abeyance but some of the designs for the IV depict a situation not unlike the Sword of Damoclēs – the existence of a threat hanging over one’s head that you can’t escape. The stand-off will continue but may be forced into the open at a later date if what is threatened by the X Swords comes to pass.  

Situation.

VII Pentacles. This card denotes a period of slow, steady growth, and the material aspect of the suit of Pentacles suggests the Conservatives finally might be putting some flesh on the bones of their rather skeletal plans for government. However it is still a slow and painfully frustrating task for them, and there is nothing here to indicate at what point they will be ready to release a badly needed framework or whether they are just waiting for events to sweep them in to Downing Street and beyond.

1A. Appearance to the public.

The Devil. Not good. The difficulty with the polls is the Tories are capped at 45%, which is where they need to be on election day, and Labour are artificially low at 27% (the most recent Telegraph poll) where they will probably increase by a good distance at an actual poll. Much of this increase will be at the expense of the Tories, leaving the two parties roughly where they were in 2005. There is still a significant resistance to a Conservative government despite Labour’s unpopularity, and in my own rough surveys I haven’t found much enthusiasm for Cameron other than he is not Gordon Brown. The public remain to be positively convinced of the Tory ability to govern, and Brown and Darling have slipped back into the lead in the Times’ most recent poll asking who is more competent to deal with the economy – the Conservatives fell 10 points to 35% whilst Labour rose by three points to 38%, turning a deficit of 10% into a lead of 3%. Cameron is playing with fire in this strategy and must put forward a positive agenda to solidify his lead in the polls and encourage positive support for the Conservatives; the fact that he refuses to do so must be taken as a sign of weakness.

1B. Appearance to the media.

The Tower. A curious element because the headlines and commentary still seem to assume an election win. However, this may suggest that difficulties are around the immediate corner, with the media at least increasing their scrutiny of the Tory agenda for government, or the cards have been reading something that I haven’t. Regardless, there are serious concerns that the Conservatives cling to their idiosyncratic ideas that policy can be made on the hoof after their entry into Downing Street, which may not therefore be in 2010. I have yet to see concrete evidence of this card, but it suggests that patience may be running out despite a fairer press since their upturn in January and recent acceleration.

2. Actuality within.

The World. The Party is secure in itself, but the World predicts an ending and rebirth. The party is secure within, but attainment in this card is coloured with the end of a cycle, and although it is a supremely good omen, it is the culmination of something rather than the benign development needed by the party. Undeniably however, the party itself has the confidence to proceed, despite the difficulties waiting to manifest shown in the previous two cards.

3. Roots of the situation.

Page of Pentacles. The youth and innocence of the Page has been developing a response to this situation and has brought what little they currently have to the table. The growth is timid and fragile, the green shoots still only small and in need of constant care and attention, but the party may finally be able to go to the country next year with some sort of positive programme to match Labour’s economic programme. The party needs to rapidly construct something to make sure it can be seen as a positive force for change rather than just Not-Labour, but it must be given some credit for surviving the difficulties of the last winter with something approaching the badly needed self-confidence it lost in the chaos and destruction of the 1990s.

4. Seeds of the outcome.

Knight of Cups. The party is approaching the next few weeks and months, again, with a charm offensive and a tactic of making sure the image is correct rather than the policies sound. The party needs to get the message out there, and it believes that its confidence shown in the World is enough to convince people to vote for them without a serious raft of solid policies – which are in development but not mature enough yet to show a waiting public. It is a risky strategy but if the policies really are in development, then it may help to prepare the ground for them to ensure a cordial reception for them at conference in the autumn.

5. Advice.

Page of Swords. The Page here brings a lightness of touch and flexibility to the Tories’ programme which comes with not having to be in government and govern with a consistency that Labour is forced to adhere to. The Page as a card exalted exhibits the good qualities that sometimes hold Cameron back – the lightweight becomes flexible and dainty, the absence of substance becomes manoeuvrability, the inexperience becomes lack of baggage either from the hangover of the Major years or the ten years in which Labour assumed growth could be infinite. Whether it’s enough is questionable, but at least the Tories could use some of this to promote their government as dynamic and versatile as Barack Obama’s agenda in America.

6. Warning.

Page of Cups. The appearance (so far) of three of the four pages suggests that this versatility and flexibility are not without their dark sides – the puerility of what the Tories represent sometimes defies belief as in the presumably ill-fated Ministry for the Quality of Life as proposed in 2006 and the imbecility of some of Cameron’s original gestures which seem to have been discarded during the credit crunch in favour of more traditionally right-wing ideas.

The Page of Cups represents someone who is dependent on someone else for his inspiration and mental and emotional development. In not hastening the development of policies the Tories risk infantilising themselves and making themselves seem pygmies as compared even to the seriously embattled Brown and Darling. The problem with the Tories is that they are punching far above their weight and despite the difficulties they still remain unable to put themselves forward without being “Not-Labour” – they cannot offer anything unless it is in comparison to Labour whereas both Blair in 1997 and Howard in 2005 were able to put their own campaigns together without needing to refer to their opposite numbers in quite such a co-dependent manner. Without Labour Cameron would be screwed; without the Tories Blair was able to pursue and develop Labour into quite a formidable force by the time he took over the levers of power.

7. Development.

Strength. The Tory programme is now about sheer control – there is no element of risking their current ratings on dangerous ideas such as radical policies, no illumination of what “reducing family breakdown” would mean other than Iain Duncan Smith’s quite frankly laughable comments on marriage being the bedrock of social progress, no details of what cuts would mean to education and defence, and no simple explanations or pledge cards as developed in 1997. The party may be confident of victory but they will have to earn it, because their public image is still flawed and dangerously shaky as anything other than a convenient vote against Brown.

8. Solution.

The Empress. The secret is to turn the Pages into Queens or Empresses, and acquiring genuine depth and breadth rather than crossing one’s fingers, closing your eyes and pretending Brown is toxic enough alone to propel you forward. The stability of this card suggests this can be reached, but Cameron needs to expand his footprint on the media (for example: I am constantly amazed that the newspapers can go a whole week without anything significant happening from the Tories, and I don’t mean PMQs, which are watched by comparatively few people and do not inform significant numbers of people about what the Tories would do in government). The object is to become a colossus astride politics (as someone in the Telegraph once described Gordon Brown as opposed to then Shadow Chancellor Oliver Letwin after 2004’s turning-point conference) rather than someone who needs the constant comparison with Brown to keep his poll ratings up. Cameron needs to function on his own, and become this colossus, rather than rely on Brown being always around to make him look good. Alternatively, they need someone who can do this and to ditch Vulpes Vulpes, though looking around the Tory front bench one wonders whether VV is the best the Tories can really do.

9. Outcome.

The Star. Meanwhile, there is an element of hope, but this innocent and gentle card is dependent on so much work that the Tories really should have started three years ago. Building hope now means that the standing start which they are setting up for themselves needs to be made soon, in order to convince the sceptical media and public that the Tories can govern in everyone’s interest rather than waft along for another year and just collapse at the last hurdle – June 3 2010.

As someone who is sceptical of both parties’ platforms, but regards some public services as essential and loved by the public, I don’t have much to say about the current budget. It seems to target the rich in order to make sure people on lower incomes are assisted, and although some “celebrity lawyers” are claiming it will decimate Labour at the polls, I’m not so sure it will – higher rate taxpayers are not a huge grouping (after all, MPs don’t even fall into the 50p tax band...which should help fund that all-important bath plug) but those on more moderate incomes are not caught too much and are just the sort of people Labour needs to help it win fairly comfortably in 2010. I don’t believe in Labour’s approach to micromanagement policies such as the recent initiative to withhold benefits from alcoholics that refuse treatment (having worked with the homeless I do believe that alcoholics refused a portion of their benefit would just drink the rest on a reduced budget, sacrificing food and shelter for the demon drink), but as someone who would consider themselves a Christian Democrat rather than a Tory I do believe in a communitarian approach to policy-making rather than the current Tory non-committal attachment to swinging cuts of some vague nature (presumably Tory anger is targeted at Labour yet again stealing their clothes), nor its “let them eat cake” approach to social programmes which do work.

Personally I find Labour the more sensitive party to approach cutting expenditure. Society has largely moved on since the polarisation of the pre-Thatcher era; if Thatcher achieved anything she achieved a society with the balance of aspirations that quelled riots in the UK; no-one now would riot because of a budget because everyone still enjoys relatively cheap consumer goods. Those on lower or working-class incomes are no longer locked out of the affluent society; we can all have cheap designer-style furniture from Argos or eBay, for example, or clothes from Primark where a new shirt costs £2.50, cheaper now than most charity shops. Thanks even in part to Labour we have now got a society which does not need to go on hunger marches, and the Tories really need to explain how they would manage to make the cuts they want to make without endangering the best that Labour have offered in terms of health and education.

Indeed it says too much about how Cameron has failed to modernise the Conservative party that the debate around where not to cut spending still focuses on defence rather than education. So long as we don’t slash spending on nukes, the kids that are the future nuclear scientists will still be educated in expensive schools inaccessible to the majority of the great unwashed. Having left the party (my vote at the European elections is going to Labour, except in the event of Cameron’s immediate resignation and replacement by someone who knows how to run a piss-up in a brewery, but my vote in the general is still just about open to tender) it looks dangerously like this modernisation stuff was all a sham and that with power allegedly only a sniff away the stupid party is making itself look positively idiotic by having these debates when policy should be fully formed and developed and sitting in a compact, readable form on my desk. The only reason I still care is a pathological desire not to see Labour just handed another victory on a plate.

There really still is no alternative.

PART 1 – LABOUR

Situation.

V Swords. This card is the same as the situation for the pre-budget spread I did as regards the European elections. Labour are sitting on a victory which is not complete and total but at least decisive – and won at a cost to themselves which may still prove difficult to heal. At the very least they need a breather of sorts to restore their long-term credibility and re-establish direction, otherwise they do face either defeat or another term of this long, inexorable decline. However they can actually begin to climb back up again – they have maintained their grounding in the face of quite a difficult experience over the last few weeks and have persevered long enough to show their adversary to lack a real backbone or platform. They can by no means rest on any laurels, but they have acquitted themselves well in the opinion of the tarot.

1A. Appearance to the public.

Justice. Justice normally represents a satisfactory conclusion to an issue or a timely and rational decision. The public evidently concludes that the Budget was not a huge shock – in either direction – nor did they really believe Darling could pull rabbits out of hats to defy financial expectations. They will make their decision a bit later, but for now it is not going to do Labour much damage, even if it may not turn around the “decomposition” that some Tory commentators are crowing about without inspecting their own lack of action in their own backyards.

1B. Appearance to the media.

X Cups. The budget was acceptable but the full effects have yet to be felt. Satisfaction in words and explanations may yet dissolve once the rates kick in, but for now the media are not dissatisfied by Darling’s balancing act. Because there were very few surprises, no-one can really say that the media are hostile, though there are as yet few signs of the green shoots of recovery in Labour’s poll ratings as a result – that will have to come later.

2. Actuality within.

Page of Pentacles. The Budget does suggest a growth period for Labour, though it will have to be nurtured further because while this card predicts development and could charitably also be called “Green Shoots of Recovery”, the green shoots are too fragile at the moment to take for granted and since this card is representative of the Labour Party rather than the economy, one well-placed Tory hoe could shatter them completely. That is maybe an “if” rather than a “when”, but nevertheless, Labour cannot take the Budget for granted and cannot assume that it has been extremely successful in reversing the trend again and reviving their fortunes to any considerable degree.

3. Roots of the situation.

III Pentacles. Someone has been doing a lot of work behind the scenes and laying the foundations of some sort of recovery, though the work is not yet far advanced and risks still remain to be taken with the direction of Budget plans. Development of the plans here made sure Labour were able to fight back, mounting a certain counter-offensive against their political opponents (and also to stimulate the economy; this however is largely irrelevant because this is a political spread rather than an economic prediction). Labour do the necessary work to remain in contention, and the result of this is the current counteroffensive shown by the V Swords.

4. Seeds of the outcome.

Wheel of Fortune. Events are now in control of the outcome, and this card does not predict good, bad or indifferent results so much as a change beyond the control of mere mortals. It may be more in the Tories’ control, though they have a habit of wasting the points at which they are in control of the game and allowing Labour to ride out storms rather than succumbing to their destructive energies. It’s not rocket science to predict that, with the current Conservative direction, Labour do still need to keep their eye on the ball, but need do very little to maintain control of the agenda.

5. Advice.

X Wands. The situation is not going to ease, but get more difficult. Labour need to keep going, and to keep working hard to pull together to keep outrunning the Tories and their lazy ideas of glory with the minimum of hard work. Labour have the burdens of office, but it is exactly these burdens which need to be used to maximise the exposure that their positive intentions get while minimising the ability of the Tories to gain carte blanche support because of their still-handsome poll lead. Slow and steady wins the race – the Independent articles suggested Labour are not losing many votes amongst the target families and that although they may not be popular on paper, they are still the choice of many who have supported them since 1997 and see no reason to change their allegiance.

6. Warning.

Strength. Labour need to relax their attempts to control the agenda and use their actions to speak louder than words. If the information I am getting from their spin doctors is correct, then they are not saying a lot of what they should be saying in the run-up to the general election, and are more positive than their previous incarnation under Blair that I discarded in 2004. The need to control their less diplomatic personnel is now a good thing, but they need to release their best material now and keep hammering the message home – they may be suffering from the same disease that affects the Tories, a kind of message constipation that makes it hard for potential supporters like myself to judge them on their proposals for a fourth term rather than get sick of the unfair scandals such as Smeargate which are atypical of anything the people who sign up for free spam get sotto voce.

7. Development.

VI Wands. The VI Wands suggests temporary victories which can be developed and made permanent or left to wither on the vine, depending on the desire of the people involved to believe in their permanency. There is a good omen in this – they have not only won against the tide – as in the V Swords – but can reverse that tide and direct it in the way they choose to shape events. The Wheel of Fortune may throw them off balance again as it did with Smeargate, but this Budget is a good way of getting the messages I discussed in (6) above out into the open after a number of months of me thinking: “If they put this message on a billboard outside ASDA, they’d romp home next year”.

8. Solution.

IV Cups. Events are controlled and given to Labour to reinvent themselves and develop current ideas into a practical programme, something New Labour is pretty good at (otherwise they would have gone the way of Attlee, Wilson and Callaghan in 2005, if not 2001). The IV offers a solution where none can previously be found, and Brown, having escaped once last year from the dangers of a premature challenge by Miliband, may find himself being handed a similar lifeline by events.

9. Outcome.

Queen of Wands. An ability to still direct and focus energies, albeit with less control than a King of Wands might have. The Government can be reactionary against events, moreso because they still possess the levers of power, such as the ability to put a Budget to Parliament and comfortably pass the relevant legislation. They may find their absolute ability to manipulate and shape drastically reduced, but they can still function as a government, and with this particular Opposition, that may be all they need to limp home safely.

The Tories will get their spread later on...but for now, The House of Elliott is starting on YeSTERDAY and I have to work at 5 o’clock, so things might have to wait until this evening.

Two very interesting dreams over the last few days. I've been put on beta-blockers by my doctor for anxiety, and reading the blurb they are supposed to be mildly hallucinogenic - which is probably why I asked for them in the first place as the best hallucinogens which also allow the psychic or spiritual person to keep a modicum of control over their development and mind expansion are often drugs that relax the mind and body rather than produce the halluncinations themselves. To that end cold/flu capsules or Nytol also help, particularly if you then have a strong coffee to offset the drowsiness they cause. A proper mystic should not be forced to take these kind of drugs to gain relaxation, but for those whose life does not allow the possibility of a complete retreat into nature, it can be a way to release tension and fear which shut us off to the Other World.

1 - European election results - Conservatives get approximately 30 seats, with Labour increasing their total at the expense of UKIP.

Quickie spread for this:

Imagery in the dream. King of Wands. The imagery of the dream was mainly just numbers appearing on a screen, like a lot of my dreams about direct election results, but the King of Wands represents direct control over the actions and reactions that drive events. Events themselves still have importance, but the King has a certain mastery and direction and can manipulate and use events for his own ends. This is imagery - it does not represent any one party - but it means that there is a control that the two parties have over this election that was missing in 2004 when UKIP staged a good insurgent campaign and largely destroyed Michael Howard in the process.

Meaning of the imagery. II Wands. Decisions that will lead to the results as pictured here have still to be taken and the election currently rests in the lap of Fate itself. There is still largely a balance of probabilities which will be used over the next six weeks to direct the game-plan unfolding. It also may predict a balanced result - something of a disappointment to the Conservatives who no doubt dream of a wipeout for Labour. Having got Glenrothes so wrong, I don't want to bet anything on the actual outcome, but the II suggests measured balance, free choice and structured change rather than a decisive battle that forces any one particular result.

Meaning in waking life. VII Swords. Cunning, stealth and using/abusing insider knowledge to manipulate events or people in your own favour. As I said in a previous article, now that negative spin is so discredited, the battleground for this election and the general will be fought on policy, not politics. Labour's dirty tricks cannot be used to the effectiveness that they were in 2005 with the destruction of Tory credibility on public spending through outright lies (the poster incident with Nick Robinson replayed on last night's Budget news programme) or the ruin of Howard Flight's career via a strategically placed mole.

Which means the rug will be pulled out from under someone's feet using stealth - using, for example, policy programmes rather than spin. Now that really would be a cunning stunt.

Outcome. VIII Coins. Building and construction work, and solid progress towards a future goal. The true winner of these elections will be the party which manages to keep focussed on actual constructive policies and solid foundations in the real world. Given the desultory result for the Tories in yesterday's Independent survey in their Budget supplement - where none of the people questioned backed Cameron's party positively, and, although some questioned were still undecided, more of the people queried still supported Labour than anyone else - I would say there is more point to the Conservatives actually now saying what they would do and trying to poach people positively rather than messing around with negative spin and trying to detach people from Labour that way.

Either way, it will provide the basis for next year's election result and propel the eventual winner significantly towards their goal.

2 - Politics in metaphor as football in the FA Cup final between Everton and Chelsea. Although I am a female, over the last few months through the hours of a rather boring job at the local newsagent I have begun reading - nay, eviscerating - the Sunday papers to stave off boredom, sleep, and perhaps even death. I've begun to read the football and rugby pages, mostly in order to have something to talk about with the endless stream of men coming for their papers. Football has a lot in common with politics - the people sometimes become more important than the game itself. I'm also glad to see Brown and Smith trying to repair their street cred by reopening the Hillsborough files.

In the dream, Chelsea were nicknamed "the Tories"; I got a running commentary from someone else in the dream that of course that wasn't really true (as often happens; this was the same presence that told me John Major was the Soviet Premier before he took up the same position in Britain in 1990; he has obviously stopped the BS and is getting back on-message) but that for the purposes of the dream that was what Chelsea represented, and that they seemed to be the team of choice for the Tories IRL, so to speak. (New Labour would be represented by Manchester United; just about keeping ahead of the game despite stronger competition this season from Liverpool.)

The match, scheduled for 30 May, was abandoned just after kick-off. All right, there were people reportedly saying that they had dreamed that the 2008 American Election was similarly called off, but it may represent some fundamental change happening between now and 4 June.

Again, a small four-card reading for this dream.

Imagery in the dream. The Lovers. In this card, we are not only provided with the image of love, passion and romance but also the element of making a choice and sticking to it. Both meanings are appropriate here; the voice in the dream is personal to me so the image is of perhaps a future mate or soul-mate, but the mundane elements suggest the choice made between the two teams involved. Again, this echoes the meaning of the imagery of dream 1 - which suggests there is still an element of choice involved in the forthcoming elections - but also demonstrates the need for that choice to be made fairly soon and for the choice to be one that lasts for a long time. The choice is also made with the full information available, which means that the playing field is also a level one and one that has provided both parties with equal opportunity to make their case, whether or not they have taken advantage of that time. The fierce struggle of 2004, with one party able to dominate and manipulate the agenda to destroy the other, is no more.

Meaning of the imagery. Page of Swords. The parties having this choice and ability does not mean they will make it adequately or will use the time available wisely. The Page is lightweight and preoccupied with superficial realities and treats the seriousness of the situation like a silly game. He takes oppportunities but misuses them and runs out of time to prove himself up to the challenge.

Meaning in waking life. III Wands. The III is where adventure starts and progress is made towards the goal the querent is aiming for. They leave the comfort zone inherent in the IV of Wands and begin to develop their momentum towards the target. However the energy is not yet at critical mass and will not generate the speed needed to overtake an obstacle; in this case, it has been left far too late to overcome and overwhelm and only if significant progress is made quickly will the seemingly dominant side begin to set the agenda for the seats they need at this election.

Outcome. Wheel of Fortune. As I suggested in a recent post to this blog politics now belongs to the events and their direction of the outcome - neither party can really plan for power in 2010 because both parties have been shaken up by recent events where they both thought that they could sleepwalk into a safe win next year. This event suggests that neither party can plan for any specific outcome - witness Brown's desire before Christmas to have the Tories trailing in the polls by now; he made the fatal error of thinking he could control and dictate events to his own satisfaction when the point in the electoral cycle has been reached that the Government must slog uphill even if it can still win the approaching general election (and I still believe they can and will, because of a lack of positive alternatives presented by the Cameroons and the time they are wasting in the naive belief that anti-Tory spin is worse than the anti-Labour spin they encourage from their pet bloggers like Guido Fawkes). No-one can take anything for granted and although there is little likelihood of an abandonment, there is always the possibility of an upset either from an insurgent or from a resurgent.

European Elections – the prognosis

Part 2. CONSERVATIVES

Position as of April 2009.

III Coins. Some constructive work is beginning with Cameron’s team for the next election but the progress here is limited to the foundations of something bigger – learning, developing, drafting – rather than realisation of that promise. In itself, it’s not bad, because there is some substance there. But if they are intent on realising their grand designs, they need to be further along than this even to get a knock-out result on June 4.

1. Potential result.

Ace of Cups. The possibilities of the result here offer the emotional and psychological confidence to win the General Election outright. It is precisely at this time in 2004 that destroyed Howard’s hopes of winning the 2005 elections. No particular threat now exists from UKIP and the BNP is unlikely to ruin the Tories’ plans. They also begin from a position where they are seen as the natural spokesmen for Britain in Europe and the poll position they craved for 10 years. So very little can apparently go wrong and their supporters in the media are crowing over the “decomposition” of the government so much so it seems churlish to point out Brown still has a year to sort things out and re-assert himself decisively.

2. Underlying reality.

VII Wands. Again, as per last night’s spread, there are obstacles in the Tories’ way which, although overcomeable, are frustrating them and their grassroots to a point where the fulfilment of the Ace still seems a hard task. The potential in position 1 may not be realised because the party shows little presence or definition beyond countering rumours of Cameron’s supposed “embarrassing diseases”. Facing up to the obstacles is one of the Tories’ main needs before they can expect the beneficence of the Ace.

3. 2004 Result.

Ace of Coins. The previous result handed the Tories somewhat of a pyrrhic victory, but it was a major landmark on the road to credibility as a governing party once again. Howard provided Cameron with a legacy that should be informing the party, just as Neil Kinnock turned round the Labour Party by waging wars on Militant and other tendencies within the socialist party and assisted Blair to build on that foundation towards government in 1997. Worryingly then, the construction work in the III is, after three and a half years, still barely advanced enough to put the party in a serious position to give the public an idea of what they really want to do in government. 2009-2010 will need to be a flurry of activity for the Tories to maintain their sense of direction towards the goals they want.

4. 2009 Result.

Queen of Coins. The Queen of Coins brings some substance, but of the administrative and managerial quality rather than that associated with material potency and the ability to drive that agenda forward significantly that the King of Coins would bring. The Tories are trying to manipulate their way towards victory in 2010 with this result here. With Labour more hopeful in their cards than it initially seemed, the Tories show no signs of a destructive result, but this is largely still evidence of the maintenance and administration of the status quo rather than speeding up the process and transcending the Queen to the more pro-acive King. In a sense the Queen is a good spin doctor – she distributes and controls money and power, but does not earn it herself.

5. Advantages at the polls.

III Wands. The Tories are adventurous in their current phase and willing to strike out on a limb to say what people want to hear. This, however, like the III Coins, is only the beginning of what is needed, and it is unable in itself to build the momentum needed to win outright in 2010, given the electoral geometry which may see Labour benefitting from a collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats since the days of Chat-Show Charlie, plus the electoral difficulties in the North of England, Scotland and Wales. The Tories are at least coming out of the comfort zone of opposition into which they retreated after every election defeat of the last twelve years, but need to transform this into concrete substance and concerted action rather than just relying on an aspirational mood.

6. Disadvantages at the polls.

Queen of Swords. The Tories are crippled by debates among themselves, reviews which are perpetually altering party thinking, headed by colourful figures such as Greg Dyke or Kirsty Allsopp who later shy away from outright endorsement of the party in any meaningful sense. From month to month the message changes, not lasting long enough to come up with anything better than inspecting the books on assumption of office. The party needs to sort out a coherent party platform and stick to it – rather than taking the idea that they will be able to square the circle long enough to look Labour in the face at the next election. The Tories need to make up their minds to win people’s hearts.

7. Balance of Probabilities.

King of Cups. Cameron’s significator, and it is positive leadership which will ultimately decide who actually wins the psychological war even if the numbers stack up on the Tories’ side. The Tories may resolve the above issues quick enough to win convincingly where Howard fell to the combined weight of the Euro-rebels and the concerned moderates he mislabelled “extremists” in Southampton. The Tories may inject enough coherency and policy weight into this campaign to continue in poll position for the next year. The King of Cups, however, is good at making himself heard, but not making himself felt.

8. Outcome of Result.

The Moon. The outcome is hidden here behind a question mark, suggesting that the tarot cannot now predict or determine the precise fallout from this election at all. The card here is sufficiently equivocal not to augur either success or failure, but it may hint at a more difficult situation than is immediately obvious. The resolution of Conservative Party debates over the next few weeks may illuminate more of the actual result, but what should be a great day for the Party may, as in 2004, prove its undoing.

European Elections – the prognosis

The European elections have always been an interesting poll, which last time around in 2004 largely put the kibosh on Michael Howard’s challenge to Tony Blair at the 2005 general election. This time round they take place at the same point before the general poll, but David Cameron’s Conservatives do apparently have a fairer wind than before. The short-lived impact of UKIP was largely nullified by Robert Kilroy-Silk’s spat with the more conservative leadership, who were not prepared, unlike the former Labour MP himself, to challenge Tories on their own home ground. Kilroy’s blistering speech – “the Conservative Party is dying – why give it the kiss of life?” – to UKIP’s conference after beating Howard’s Tories into fourth place in Hartlepool in October 2004 rebounded on him and he ended up forming the splinter party Veritas, which seems to have died a death. Kilroy-Silk is still a European MP, though for how much longer one can only guess.

This time round the focus has shifted from Labour being unassailable as a party of government to the idea that it is now time for a change. Cameron is largely unchallenged by UKIP, though fears that the BNP could win enough votes to have their own MEP remain. Brown is damaged by recent sleaze issues and although questions remain about the Tories’ expenses the issue has largely focussed on government abuse of claims.

Analysing both parties now some interestingly and potentially counter-intuitive portents come to light.

Part 1. LABOUR

Position as of April 2009.

V Swords. The damaging and costly legacy of the recent weeks of scandal means Labour are a lot weaker than they appeared to be at Christmas and have a lot of anxieties and frustrations to overcome. They have the potential still to win the war – in fact the V Swords often suggests that the querent has won a fight rather than lost it – but the situation has still been brought to a conclusion where even the winners have been bloodied and need to overcome these injuries before they can proceed.

1. Potential result.

III Swords. Again the prognosis may not be good and here Labour may yet again find themselves damagingly behind. They are already starting from a handicap – the Tories have won the European elections for the last two iterations, even whilst in 1999 still unable to grapple with the wider issues facing the party, and in 2004 won in spite of Howard’s difficulties at the Southampton rally which largely finished off his chances of becoming Prime Minister. The potential here is that Labour, who lost the battle in 2004 but won the war a year later, may go down to a defeat from which it would be difficult in present circumstances to ever recover from.

However, the III Swords suggests that the heartbreak from any defeat is only temporary. Defeat may not be avoidable but it need not be permanent enough to entirely wreck their prospects at the general election.

2. Underlying reality.

King of Coins. The King of Coins is usually the most able and competent of the four Kings and I originally ascribed the card to Gordon Brown when I began to read political tarot in 2006. The ox in the card’s picture here shows Labour may yet have the underpinning gravity and weight to soldier on through these elections without grievous bodily harm – at least making sure that a defeat can be recovered from quickly or steadily during the subsequent 12 months before a necessary general election.

3. 2004 Result.

VIII Swords. Historically, Labour have not done well in the European elections, even as a fairly popular governing party in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This is largely down to the Tories’ resonance with majority Euro-scepticism in Britain trumping any difficulties the polls may have held for them nationally. Tory victories in 1999 and 2004 were no indicator of general election success for either Hague or Howard. Labour therefore may be tempted to write off European elections as not a good barometer of public opinion and concentrate on developing and re-asserting national credibility, as they did in 2004-05.

4. 2009 Result.

The Star. An interesting card to find in this position where Labour are seriously not expected now to rebound in either European or national polls. As of writing this, however, there are still six weeks until the poll, and the Budget is due out tomorrow. Events may still conspire to assist Labour and help them recover some respectability in the run-up to the poll. Labour strategists held their cards close to their chest during the last week before the Glenrothes by-election, and perhaps even spread misinformation about what they believed the result would be. That was, of course, in far calmer waters than currently. It also might be conceivable that David Cameron would follow Michael Howard in being hoisted by his own petard due to his enigmatic stance on Europe. Labour seem to at least manage to save face at this poll, increasing rather than decreasing hope for a re-assertion of authority by Brown as his predecessor had after the 2004 poll.

5. Advantages at the polls.

Knight of Swords. Labour have nothing now to lose. They can attack this election with positive gusto; I have been in receipt of propaganda from both sides recently and have noticed Labour have actually downplayed the poisonous negativity that led me to leave the party in 2004, and Smeargate took me by surprise given the tone of the emails emanating from their offices. The Knight of Swords charges forwards, reckless but enthusiastic, and the party has not lost any of its thirst for maintaining or promoting its government. It is also winning council seats that the Tories set their sights on – for example keeping them out of Manchester City Council and winning seats in Redditch, the constituency of beleaguered Home Secretary Jacqui Smith. The fight is not over yet and Labour are still proving electorally safe in territories still a no-go area for the Conservatives.

6. Disadvantages at the polls.

Hanged Man. This can be read as a lack of overall momentum and a lack of will, but it may simply be a case of Labour being forced onto the defensive, not only of their record but of their tactics. It may also warn the party that they can no longer take media support wholly for granted, as well as using tactics evident in 2004 by promoting UKIP at the expense of the Tories – the admission by Labour strategists in the West Midlands that led to my decisive break with the party a week before the 2004 poll. These parties also no longer present a genuine stumbling block for a confident Tory party. It is not a huge drawback, however, since these conditions have prevailed since Michael Howard and David Cameron re-orientated the Tories towards thinking seriously about government again and won the support of sceptical media during the mid-2000s. Brown’s emails to party members seem more aware of this than before, and, Smeargate aside, Labour have learned from difficulties in the polls after feeling confident under Blair to go full tilt into negative campaigning, particularly against Michael Howard at the 2005 election, which I know was off-putting on the ground if not in the media. After the destruction of “Red Rag”, the party knows that it needs to put out this positive propaganda that they have sat on for a while now.

7. Balance of Probabilities.

High Priestess. Brown has an inner strength here which some suggest borders on madness, but is the secret of good leadership. I have recognised this inner peace it in others, not only more modern figures like Howard and Blair, but also in Thatcher and Major at points where the world seemed to turn against them. This inner balance makes Brown harder to crack under pressure than people believe, as Conference 2008 proved. So the balance of the past few weeks may actually result in Labour prioritising the positive message and ditching the negative tendencies to milk Tory troubles, thereby ambushing the complacent Conservatives who believe they have already won not only the European poll but the general election itself.

8. Outcome of Result.

Queen of Wands. Labour’s result is not going to be destructive – on the contrary, it will provide them with the rudimentary ability to respond and cope with events and develop strategies for the general election itself.

Brown’s troubles don’t mean the Tories can start laughing – Bruce Anderson, Independent, 20 April 2009

Tarot Analysis

Bruce Anderson and I campaigned together in the Newbury seat at the general election, and prior to that I met him at the Reading Conservative Future conference, where we discussed among other things getting my cartoons published in the Spectator (some hope!). He has always been very loyal to the Conservative Party and we became fairly close during the campaign, though afterwards and throughout my troubled period of Cameroon-scepticism I have not really troubled him since.

In his latest article for the Independent, Brucie discusses the “decomposition” of the current government and gives David “Vulpes Vulpes” Cameron the benefit of some advice on how to revamp and renew political culture in the wake of Smeargate and Porno-films-on-expenses-gate. His erudite words, however, worry me that this is what should come naturally to Cameron, rather than having to be spelled out to him, and the title asks a question which is never fully answered in the article – namely, why can’t the Tories start laughing and what aren’t they actually doing (answers on the back of a postage stamp to CCHQ, please).

Delving into the realms of the tarot again, I detail more objective analysis of the article anon.

Situation.

II Wands. This suggests that things are now at a crossroads for both parties – and what they do henceforth will decide the results of the next election, due by June 3 next year. Things are no longer just idle speculation and “paper” results; decisions will be made now that will determine the next occupant of Downing Street, or confirm the current one with a mandate (not as far-fetched as it seems, given the outcome of this spread). Cameron’s actions – or lack thereof – will seal fates quite soon as the parliament moves into extra time. Hopefully – unlike Everton’s spectacular defeat of Manchester United on Sunday – it won’t have to be settled on penalties after a goal-less draw.

1. Conscious.

King of Cups. Cameron could have all he wants – this is the card which I have used as his significator since I began to read the tarot politically three years ago. There is a conscious and stated possibility he could well carry the day as Labour seemingly decomposes – Bruce’s article lists the things that he can do to overcome Brown decisively and, quite apart from whether he does them or not, it is clear to Anderson that a change is as possible as a rest. This is being strictly true to Bruce’s conception of Cameron as someone who reads what is written about him and acts upon it – it is certainly possible that at this late stage he can become the true heir to Blair and wipe Labour out completely.

2. Subconscious.

VII Wands. Why, then, the ambivalent title? Why can’t the Tories laugh all the way to the (admittedly bust) bank? Perhaps Brucie is trying to say that Cameron is not yet doing what he is telling him to do here, and therefore the struggle which underlies the Tory advance is much more intense and much less certain of a positive outcome than it appears here. The Seven is often a good card, of someone beginning to triumph over adversity. But next to the King of Cups, where the Tory leader has mastery over his own emotions and can use them to dazzle and bedazzle, the Seven demotes this auspicious appearance to a battle of wits which continues to haunt the Tories, particularly as recently they were pushed into fourth place in a Manchester City Council by-election, a seat which Labour held, when they badly need to make inroads into northern, Scottish and Welsh areas where they need to win seats to form the next government. They even lost a seat in Redditch, of all places. Support for the party in the most recent Sunday Telegraph poll actually fell by one point to 43%, though the gap widened because of a collapse in Labour fortunes after Smeargate. The Tory advance seems to me to be deepening their support, not widening it, and it is these obstacles which need to be overcome. Bruce is not saying this out loud, but the Independent’s sub-editor clearly needs to express it in these terms. And since Bruce is writing like this at this late hour, it still evidently needs saying to Vulpes Vulpes.

3. Roots of the article.

Strength. Here the message is, as usual, about holding on and not rocking the boat, rather than gambling on putting forward a progressive and coherent philosophy (if not actual policy substance). Bruce sees the Tories in the position where they are afraid to challenge the political culture which has nurtured Cameron because they are relying on it to get them in through the front entrance of Downing Street next June. Discipline and the need for stability prevail where the really radical debate has yet to take place, even now as the parliament moves into extra time. The Conservatives have appointed Greg Dyke to chair a review of culture policies. Fantastic. That should have been done years ago. And round about Christmas they expected an election to take place in January...forgetting they would have been trounced without a manifesto to speak of and the debates still taking place over whether or not to bring Fat Ken back gripping the readers of Conservative Home. The element of control and manipulation has replaced real radical thought and action, because the Tories are too scared that even a decaying government will steal their ideas and make them their own.

4. Seeds sown by the article.

The Fool. This card always suggests a new beginning and a fresh approach, but one that is inherently unstable. The magnitude of the card as compared to Strength couldn’t be clearer – the opposite of control is release. However, this is not a manageable card: the Fool affects everyone, it shakes politics up so much that normal tactics cannot be relied upon and events mean much more than what politicians can bring to pass themselves. This does not suggest a return to the uneasy equilibrium that has prevailed since the Labour conference brought Brown back from the electoral dead last September. The potential for political fireworks escalates, but not because of any one person or leadership; it is no longer possible to manipulate and stage manage one’s way (back) into Downing Street. This election will not be micromanaged in the favour of one or other contender; we are heading into the great unknown. This is not liked by British politicians, but with the failure of spin to do Labour any favours, it is unlikely to do the Conservatives much good either.

5. Advice.

Queen of Swords. Anderson is advising Cameron to be as cautiously rational as possible in response to the chaos into which the government is rapidly descending. The advice is of an intellectual and thoughtful nature, and is built upon the assumption that Cameron is reading the article, possesses the capability to articulate the exact angle that Bruce is pushing, and that voters will listen to the vague case for Conservatism rather than any concrete policies the party may or may not have by June 3 next year. Anderson is asking a product of the current system to change it, which is presupposing that Cameron can do this (and it has been done; many great leaders started off as flunkies to the ancien regime. Vulpes Vulpes co-wrote the last Conservative manifesto with his boss Howard (aka Bubo Scandiacus), after all). The Queen of Swords is a cold, calculating creature, however, and not a direct and experienced manipulator as her consort the King of Swords is. Anderson’s advice is correspondingly pithy but does not offer the party the dynamism it needs to function as a worthy opposition, let alone a potential and pro-active government. She is – in the words of a previous Conservative campaign slogan – all talk and no action.

6. Warning.

Temperance. Temperance ill-dignified is mere patience and tolerance of the status quo, and although this is a card of great healing, it is also a card of potential complacency and withdrawal into fantasies of “if...” and “when...” The all-too-subtle warnings in this article are that what Bruce is saying even needs to be said, particularly at this late stage in the game when the opposition party should have its plans and manifesto and long-term strategy for government already drawn up. This advice may end up being water off a duck’s back if Cameron cannot now come out and say more than “hurry up and hold an election so we can have a change of culture at the top”. Will people even be voting on this at the election? If the only way for the Tories to enunciate any concrete plans is to say “we will write the manifesto when we get into government and see what the state of play actually is”, then not only this battle but the war itself is lost.

7. Solution.

The Devil. There has to be a change in the current system, and because the seeds of this election have already been sown, this will be a poll determined by events and not controlled by either party or factions within them. The card points to a painful transition back to an uncertain future where politicians cannot dictate events and cannot rein in certain destructive forces which have already begun to lose control. Bruce’s advice seems wise but even if Cameron were to follow it – by no means certain – he could not hope to dictate that future and could not hope to govern by spin-doctor as he probably hoped he might in 2005. Unless the Conservatives take on board everything Bruce is saying and begin to articulate their platform for the next election well in advance of their last chance to face the nation at their autumn conference, they are not going to be able to control events – and the Devil always likes to take the hindmost down with him, particularly in the Conservative Party.

8. Outcome.

Page of Swords. The things Bruce says have found some resonance with whom they are aimed at, but this again is not a deep enough penetration to effect real change of direction for either party. Cameron should have been articulating what Anderson is saying now, if not for the last three years, then for the last three months as his ratings begin to re-assert themselves after a problematic autumn and winter. He doesn’t, however, seem to be taking things as seriously or directly as one might hope. Howard, at this stage of proceedings, a year before the last election, was much more pro-active. The most recent Sunday Express front page, “LABOUR DEATH THROES” reminded me of the splash “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, MR BLAIR” which heralded their return to active support for the Conservative Party in April 2004 after years both as a left-wing rival to the Daily Mail and then studied indifference to IDS and Blair alike. Comparing that issue (and subsequent days’ papers which lavished praise on Michael Howard as distinct from Tony Blair, and even invited Bubo Scandiacus to write an op-ed) and the less definitely pro-Conservative tone of the similar article this time round, suggests the Tories have lost ground, not gained it, with the general readership that the Express is aimed at. Cameron needs to take Bruce’s words and run with them, whilst putting out some more detail. However, since he, unlike Howard, is a product of the idea that a government or opposition can manipulate, control and direct their way into office without much policy substance, he finds himself in the paradoxical situation that if he was able to take Bruce’s advice on board, he would already have done so.