Parliament of Fowls

The second-jobs-for-the-Shadow-Cabinet row rumbles on. Do they not understand that this only makes them look daft? I'm almost sympathising with Cameron here. What do they expect if/when they get into government? That they can spend the morning in the Ministry for Paperclips and, after a spot of lunch with the boys from the blue stuff they can whizz over to their "digital marketing agency" and carry on with making some serious money? It seems the world couldn't get any more ludicrous when people like William Hague (who is the only person on the front bench with previous Cabinet experience) can say that they are getting valuable business experience - particularly in this economic climate! - which will serve them well in government, since they will have "experience of real life".

Sounds like a poor excuse to me. Not many people find £61,000 a paltry sum to live on. To many people - including many Labour MPs - it's wholly adequate and it would probably give the Tory Shadows a good sight more experience of real life to have to try and subsist on that sum alone.

No-one is pretending that parliamentarians get paid a pittance or that everyone should have a trust fund, but Labour MPs didn't use these pathetic excuses back in 1995 or 1996 - they seemed to get by all right on their way into government. Blair has racked up £12m since leaving office, but at least he didn't try to do it while he was in Downing Street, otherwise I think Lord Hutton might have had a thing or two to say about that. (Mind you, I wonder how much Blair has actually done as Middle East Peace Envoy? Perhaps not as much as Special Envoy to JP Morgan, that's for sure. Thankfully he hasn't opened his own company - Sexed Up Dossiers'R'Us plc - though there is still time for that later, one hopes...it would give me some much needed material to write something funny about) What will the poor Shadow Cabinet do the morning after they win the election and they wake up to find they have taken a whopping pay cut?

Gesture politics aside, it is time that Cameron started laying down the law. The Independent reports that:

David Cameron may be forced to shelve plans to curb the outside earnings of his Shadow Cabinet after a revolt by frontbenchers who do not want to give up their lucrative jobs outside politics [...].

The Tory leader wants to reassure the public that his party's leading players would not face any conflicts of interest if they form the next government. Some of his aides worry that the Tories risk looking out of touch with ordinary voters as they feel the pinch of the economic downturn.

All very fair and above board. Members of all three previous leaders' Shadow Cabinets have had directorships, but they also managed to devote enough time to politics to keep the party afloat during its years in the wilderness.

In conclusion the Independent suggests:

Mr Cameron may return to the issue in the run-up to the election, widely expected in 2010. One aide conceded yesterday: "It is not something he will do in the near future," but added: "This is not something David has ruled out. He may want to do something nearer the election."

He may also want to release a manifesto nearer the election too, but if this is his response now then God help the Tories because he's not going to be able to lay things on the line then if he doesn't show a bit of backbone now.

Looking at the cards for this, it was tempting to spin it out quite a lot, but after the first two-thirds of the spread it was obvious what was being pointed out, so I think it is probably more interesting to limit this to 10 cards rather than draw out the agony for Foxy and Friends any longer.

S. Situation. PAGE OF SWORDS - "The Page of Swords represents someone who is adept at uncovering secrets and unravelling mysteries - a problem-solver, sleuth, and possibly even a spy. He can be trusted with secrets when given good reasons. He is a good diplomat with a keen eye for creative compromise able to act on his own initiative and only give away what is necessary to achieve a goal. His taste for secrecy can be taken too far, however."

Or his tastes for big money and the high life. The situation here is that the Shadow Cabinet is hedging its bets when looking at the next election and not entering into the 'project' with any great enthusiasm. Swords represent a detachment from emotional concerns and the Page is betraying a lack of connection with or faith in a Tory victory to satisfy the Shadow Cabinet. They are either complacent or do not believe wholeheartedly that the Tories will pull off a victory in the next election. This is even despite more goodwill from media and public opinion than was apparent in Michael Howard's day, and that even despite a 20-point poll lead Cameron could not convince David Davis to give up his outside interests suggests that there is a breakdown in confidence here which is now becoming visible.

1. External voices. IV WANDS - "It is now time for a well-dressed rest and the enjoyment of good company. Your plans are well-laid, so you can allow yourself to bask for a while as you see your ideas take shape in reality. This could be a good time to consider moving house, or formalising a romantic attachment. Enjoy this time, but don't allow complacency to creep in."

The Shadow Cabinet is projecting an air of supreme confidence - it doesn't matter what we do now, we are still going to win the next election; so let's feather our own nests while we wait. The security of their positions is such that they can afford to make spurious justifications of having their fingers deep in £200,000 pies so long as it can be said that they are getting "experience of real life" or claiming that "Osborne has a trust fund and we don't, so we want as much money as he has". This supreme confidence betrays complacency and the lack of anything strict coming from Cameron to spoil their fun. They are far too secure, but underlying the suit of Wands is just that insecurity that leads them to try and make these justifications to their leader, press and public.

2. Internal voices. THE SUN - "Good fortune, material success, energy and joy are all promised by this card as whatever you undertake is blessed. New beginnings are suggested by the children and the sunflowers craning for the sky. This is a good time for new partnerships in all spheres of life and for refreshing your spirits through simple enjoyment of the good things on offer."

The Shadow Cabinet is here portrayed as being so confident of electoral success that they are allowing themselves to use this time in other ways which are evidently bringing them "good fortune, material success, energy and joy". The Sun - the card, not the newspaper - suggests they are confident enough in the stability of the polls to give politics a rest - again, the intimation here is that they are allowing themselves to slip into complacency and be so assured of a future in the actual Cabinet that they are not entirely focussed on how to achieve that. The Sun is a good card but it underlies a good future only for their bank balances.

3. Roots of the situation. III SWORDS - "Argument and strife threaten your plans. Be patient. Separation, frustration and disillusionment all threaten, but if you hold onto your long-term goals they can still be realised - you just have to work out who your real friends are. Break-ups are always painful, but totally necessary in the long run."

The breakdown here has been two-fold. In the long run, the two previous election defeats have provoked the Shadow Cabinet into making sure they have interests and careers outside politics to soften the blow of election defeat in 2009 or 2010. In the shorter term, the situation has come to a head with Cameron trying to impose discipline on his team. In this situation, the Tories have reached a breaking point and the row has spilled out into the papers again.

4. Consequences of the situation. KNIGHT OF WANDS - "The Knight of Wands is a versatile warrior, armed and fearlessly ready for action. The card signifies departures, change, and adventures into the unknown. It's a warning to keep your eyes and ears open, because you are surrounded by challenge. But if like the Knight (or with his help), you face it with courage, flexibility or imagination, there's every reason you should triumph in the end."

This now symbolises a breakdown of general discipline, but not complete systemic failure. DC's attempts to restore order before it brings him down; the Shadow Cabinet may in the last resort be thinking of regicide and selection of one from among themselves who would allow them to continue their business interests as well as political careers. The Knight suggests that none of the protagonists here have the upper hand and that it will take more force from outside to settle this argument. Cameron is failing to impose his wishes on his Shadow Cabinet, but their intransigence threatens to bring them down alongside him.

5. Cameron's desires. IX SWORDS - "Beware tempting but false invitations. Deception and even possible violence are warned by this card, but bear in mind that adversity is the best test of character, just as a sword requires fire and hammering to get a sharp edge. In the long run, know that all adversity can be turned to the good."

DC's intentions are to ensure order is restored and the Shadow Cabinet concentrates on the job at hand (winning the election and subsequent government, if anyone is in doubt about what that is). The result may have to be heavy-handed and may cost him some friends, but his priority is now to make sure the Shadow Cabinet do not undermine his credibility or authority as a leader with a good team. The Times said once (after the 2004 conference) that Michael Howard would be a good national leader in a presidential system but was let down by a mediocre Shadow Cabinet. Cameron needs to avoid having the same thing said about him, and wishes to read the riot act on this issue.

6. Shadow Cabinet desires. VIII WANDS - "The Eight indicates sudden progress that is probably too fast for comfort, so try to slow things down a little and avoid over-hasty decisions that you might later regret. This is an exciting and well-starred time with travel, new business partnerships and long-term romance all likely - just bear in mind that life is not always this easy, and plan for these rainy days."

The Shadow Cabinet want to sample all of what life has to offer and are dilettantes at heart - they are in a rush to "feed themselves from official business" and, since this card suggests a dispersal of energy, rather than a concentration thereof, they are thus unwittingly trying to have their cake and eat it. They have not given up on election victory - but in their world it matters less to them whether the Conservatives win or lose, so long as they are provided for themselves. They should be aware that Labour have now renewed their interest in winning the election - and can live on their relatively modest ministerial salaries quite happily.

7. Outcome of the argument between Cameron and the Shadow Cabinet. VI WANDS - "You benefit from triumphant and well-earned success as careful plans and hard work bear fruit. Be magnanimous in victory, and your moment of glory will be prolonged. This is no time for remembering petty insults and injuries suffered along the way because if you forget them, so will others."

Tensions are high but the situation comes to a conclusion due to the necessity of stabilising the party's leadership in the face of a Labour revival still enjoying the "Brown bounce", particularly after Glenrothes despite attempts to derail it. The stability of the solution is questionable but there is a need for compromise here which would prevent a complete breakdown and a retrograde step for the party as a whole to protect these excessive "interests" and second jobs. No-one appears an outright winner, but hostilities begin to cease because of the need to counter Labour.

8. Public expression of the outcome. X WANDS - "Exhaustion threatens as you try to juggle the conflicting demands of work and family. Try to step back and reorganise your life in a more practical and realistic way, rather than just struggling on hopelessly against the tide of demands. Something has to give and it need not necessarily be you."

The temporary solution in 7 looks too precarious to do much good in public to keep the party from slipping back into the internal strife which dogged it under successive leaderships prior to Cameron's election in 2005. The outside interests are too lucrative to give up but the needs of the party too great to put on the back burner. Cameron is not able to impose the needed discipline or authority to show he is a good leader in general. The argument is more public and it comes at a time when the Tories need stability even more - it could end up damaging their poll lead further. An overbalance of difficulties threatens to collapse despite attempts to reach a compromise earlier on.

9. Actions on the outcome. THE TOWER - "Without warning the old order breaks down and chaos breaks loose. Upheaval, betrayal and failure all threaten to shake your self-belief. This is a common card for people facing the challenges of mid-life, although love can create similar havoc at any age, as can politics, war and business. Such revolutions always lead to clearer understanding in the long term, however."

The Party is severely destabilised by this conflict in its upper echelons and this does not look very positive for either Cameron or his team. Averting The Tower is difficult, but to bring it down in a controlled demolition is possible at this stage if agreement can be reached to protect the more vulnerable parts of the Conservative leadership. Whether this controlled breakdown will happen is another matter; with other aspects of the Tory position looking so difficult and this card now appearing in the outcome position of two separate spreads on two separate issues, there looks to be different developments conspiring against the party to bring about destruction of what is currently so finely balanced within Team Cameron.

10. Consequences of the outcome. VIII SWORDS - "Criticism, blame or possible illness frustrate your plans and require patience to overcome. Judgement is tried and tested at times like this, but it is important to remember that there is no better way to test the value of your beliefs, especially if you have the humility to adapt them to reality."

This card also means entrapment and imprisonment and it seems the Tories are locked in to a certain course of action at the moment, given decisions taken prior to this particular point in time. Opportunities have been missed over the last three years which means that although it was avoidable, it might not be now, given the character of people involved. Never say never; there could always be a rescue package to salvage what credibility Cameron's team still retains. But the destruction might have to take place now to make sure the party is able to rebound on Labour and return to a solid position of pre-eminence before any election takes place and time has indeed run out.

 

And next in the wonderful world of wildlife, here's Iain the Squirrel tucking into a bag of chocolate he stole from a florists.

His opinion on the Glenrothes by-election was rather indistinct, but probably consisted of the viewpoint that the Liberal Democrats didn't do too badly after employing him as a canvasser.

Suitably chastened from predicting a narrow SNP win, here we have got to look at the cards more carefully. I wrote this spread before I knew the result, but to me the tarot puts itself beyond manipulation by forecasting in a non-binary way - that is, by advising about the result, rather than saying "yes/no". Having the impact of the result in previous spreads as The World could mean anything positive, and because I was expecting an SNP win I read it that Labour would survive beyond what would have been a bad but not wholly unexpected result. We will now never know whether  they would have sunk lower in the polls as a result of a loss - so what will happen now that they have cleared this hurdle comfortably?

It is only a safe seat in Scotland, and was not a Tory-Labour fight, but the perceptions of the Brown bounce remain and may strengthen them even in England more than if they had lost. Intuitively the difficulties with the Opposition not being robust enough to survive a general election might not have been realised until then, and covered up by an unstable lead which vanished in the weeks before an election. The Conservatives did not lose the seat in a close race, they lost their deposit but understandably the propaganda machine is now in overdrive with Louise Bagshawe in her normal role as the Tory version of the editor of Pravda claiming it was a good result. Not many people on the thread agree with her (Satirical Moderniser is actually a UKIP troll pretending to be a Cameroon for the week). It's not unexpected that the Tories lost the seat, and that their vote may have collapsed because their votes all went to the SNP (as allegedly happened with the Liberal Democrats in Hartlepool in 2004, resulting in a poor fourth place behind UKIP).

Here is a spread designed to gauge the result of the Glenrothes result.

1. Result for Labour. III CUPS - "Great happiness resulting from a marriage or a birth. The coming to fruition of something which was conceived in love. The card of maternity, abundant fertility, comfort, solicitation, trust, harmony, felicity and the healing of ills."

This card is a relief for Labour and can show real progress and real repair to the damage done over the last year or so. It is difficult to wholly decide whether the relief can be sustained, but for now there is a moment where a surprise result has occurred and the party can now begin to really heal itself and move on.

2. Result for the Conservatives. IV SWORDS - "Peace and order established in the midst of strife through strength and the exercise of arms. Law and firm administration in troubled times. Rest and the opportunity to recuperate from the ravages of battle. A welcome retreat from the stresses of life. Can indicate necessary hospitalisation."

Again, going nowhere fast. This means there is a certain relief for the Tories too - a resting point after struggle, as if they expected a worse result. Since Labour won the by-election there is a set-back because of perception of the result as the vindication of a "Brown bounce" over the economy; whilst the Tories refuse to make hay while the sun shines they run the risk of this rest becoming complacent unconsciousness and vegetation. They are unable to make any capital on this result, but have not altogether slid just yet.

3. Brown bounce? PAGE OF CUPS - "He is a poetic youth much given to quiet reflection and meditative study. He has a fund of useful knowledge and gives his advice freely when asked. He is painstaking and gifted with good foresight."

Brown knows things may get better and the Page of Cups represent some small increase in confidence fuelled mostly by relief and vindication rather than outright jubilation. He enjoys the wisdom of knowing that his cup is half full, rather than half empty, so long as the Tories remain trapped in their comatose position in the Four of Swords. The bounce certainly does not subside and may even still be on the upswing as people warm to him again and he begins to get a better press again.

4. Cameron trend? THE TOWER - "Suffering of an individual though the forces of destiny being worked out in the world. The apparent unfairness of natural disasters which strike all, just or unjust alike."

Cameron is in a situation which is extremely dangerous for him personally and even if the Glenrothes result was expected as far as the Tory vote was concerned, this puts him on the back foot again as Brown seeks to continue the trend upwards after this surprise win. Because no man is an island, fate works through the interdependence of people working together - and this twist of fate might prove to be extremely difficult since the Tory peak is not likely now to return.

5. Will Glenrothes have any effect? VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding-up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."

Glenrothes will probably catalyse other aspects of political life which have been sluggish of late, and intensify the above two trends for Gordon Brown and David Cameron (as well as Alex Salmond, who is however far from finished as Scotland's First Minister, since in the previous spread the SNP's result - despite the actuality - was still broadly positive. Guess his totem...). This is a direct, striking result and trend and proves to accelerate the process of change in politics in general.

6. Ultimate conclusions. IX PENTACLES - "Material success, comfort, appreciation, popularity. Good sense and sound administrative ability which produces order out of chaos."

A direct coup for Labour and a directly beneficial result which serves to solidify the Brown bounce and push it upwards, though this is not the Ten of Pentacles, which would transcend the solid result into a direct comeback. Brown needs to assimilate this and push upwards again without fearing any repercussions which would probably have accompanied an SNP victory. Brown still enjoys this personal and material strength which his main opponent still seems to lack.

It must be worrying that this article could appear in the Torygraph of all places...

Instead the Prime Minister's position in his party and the country has been strengthened by the scale of the victory – both sides said the margin would be less than a thousand votes - and it was Mr Salmond who ended up with egg on his face.

In typically bombastic style, the Scottish First Minister confidently predicted victory and even boasted that he had put money on the result.

While Mr Brown's political star is in the ascendency, the huge margin of the SNP defeat is the first sign that the prolonged Nationalists' honeymoon, that began when the party took power in Holyrood last year, is finally over.

Significantly, it is also a huge blow to his dream of Scottish independence, which the SNP candidate, Peter Grant, said he tried to sell on the doorstep.

Recent opinion polls suggest that support for independence has fallen since the onset of the economic crisis, and the by-election result appears to be further evidence that voters are more worried about the money in their pockets than breaking up Britain.

Perhaps they have been reading the Communist Manifesto while bored waiting for a Conservative one.

Apologies for the short posts today but I will be back with a reading later on. We may have to reach into the twilight zone to find out why Labour won, but I think I have an idea or two about it. I think I might have committed unwitting voodoo again, the details are too embarrassing but in autumn 2006 I ripped up a begging letter from CCHQ because I was not going to pay a £20 membership fee to a party with whom I was already fairly semi-detached, and on top of that hand out extra money on the back of the promise of a Ministry for the Quality of Life or whatever neo-Orwellian idea DC had come out with. The poll in the next day's Times gave the Tories a lead of only 1%. Then in the next day's Mail gossip column, I read that the lead had been trailed as 10% and CCHQ notified - but something seemed to go wrong and the printed edition of the poll only showed a 1% margin. I am only an amateur voodoo shaman, but I rather think my ...activities last week might have had the same effect on the SNP that my activities then had on Tory polls. It doesn't seem to work for me if you do it knowlingly, that is the thing - but the concept of fate is based on the fact that although we may strive to create our own destinies, no man is an island and that nature tends to steer people in the "right" direction.

NB I am having some technical difficulties with the previous post about Glenrothes. I am trying to fix the problem but the only link that works seems to be to that Hitler X-box clip.

 

The people have spoken - and it's a resounding non-success for me and my cards. You can't win them all, but personally this is an interesting result, because it is so counter-intuitive to everything that has been written or assumed in the past few days that I am sure I got something wrong while reading. The World came out for Labour - if you remember correctly - and even then I didn't spot it. Damn, there go my chances of selling this to a national newspaper so I can keep up the rent on my nesting box.

Lindsay Roy is a Tengmalm's Owl, yesterday. Meanwhile, Morag Balfour is a magpie today.

Vulpes vulpes, meanwhile, can go back to his x-box and prepare for the Quorn Hunt to pay a visit. Or is that Alex Salmond in the field grey and glasses?