Parliament of Fowls

This is the conclusory part of the Prospects at the Polls series inquiring as to which party has the better chance of winning an early election given the possibility of a change of leadership in one or both parties.

CONCLUSIONS

CONSERVATIVE PARTY

1. Advice to the Party. VI WANDS - "This card signifies a moment of public achievement. It suggests a promotion, or a creative project that has been accepted for display or publication. The key point is that the achievement stimulates public acknowledgement or acclaim."

The Tories have succeeded in getting people to take notice of them and position themselves in a good position to win the next electoin. However the Six of Wands is just the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. The Tories need to go on and consolidate what they have before time runs out. "Teck", a contributor to the comments on Conservative Home, puts it very nicely:

I believe that the transformation/rebranding of the Conservative Party appears to have stalled for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, the core does not seem entirely comfortable with seizing change, being bogged down by intellectual debate and pre-occupation over any different approach however compelling, weighing endlessly against anachronistic benchmarks (ie, anything that is 'left' is not consistent with right thinking).

Secondly, there is a strange absence of conviction in the enunciation of clear future policies - there is a distinct shortage of them - and generally delayed/muted responses to hammer the opposition over patently flawed policies.

We certainly need heavyweight personalities in our parliamentary party going forward from front bench through to the back and our field of candidates in winnable seats; criticising the weakness of the opposition without beefing up ours leaves us vulnerable.

We have been promised substance yet there are few signs of it, and we have been reassured about change but what I have seen so far are at-the-edges and piecemeal ones rather than necessary, wholesome and bold ones.

2. Solution. ACE OF SWORDS - "The Ace of Swords points to strength in adversity or a situation which initially looks unpromising yet has a positive outcome. This card is usually associated with a sense of the inevitability of great change. Although this change may initially be unwelcome, it is ultimately beneficial."

The Tories need to make a thrusting, dynamic move, rather than rely on the sinking of Labour under the weight of their own mistakes. Without this move, the Conservatives could find that this card foreshadows thrusting being made at the expense of key personnel and even the Leader himself.

3. Overall outcome. KNIGHT OF CUPS - "The Knight of Cups indicates romance and a proposal of some kind. This could be a proposal of marriage or an artistic proposition. He may also represent a rival in love. However, the key point connected with the appearance of the Knight of Cups is that love is an important issue, whether it be romantic, platonic or spiritual."

The appearance of some sort of solution following the direct moves made in a1. This card appeared around the time of Davis' kamikaze resignation from both Shadow Cabinet and parliamentary seat. It also represents a new foundation for Conservative policymaking and the promotion of the manifesto in the run-up to any election. If DC cannot do this himself, someone else will be found to do it for them - there are enough people who want to do this and unlike in 2007 a challenger makes himself known in the event of DC's downfall.

LABOUR PARTY

1. Advice to the Party. IV CUPS - "The Four of Cups describes a sense of dissatisfaction on an emotional level with one's lot in life. Even with little in reality to warrant such discontent, there is nevertheless a sense of futility or depression coming from within. This card suggests a feeling of boredom and even a refusal to make an effort to improve the situation."

The Four in an advisory situation suggests that Labour need to ride out the storm and to make sure they acknowledge and allow for internal dissent. They must look at the whole picture and they must be realistic about their prospects. However, there is a brighter side to the Four, in that a solution often provides itself from unexpected quarters if the querent keeps their eyes open. So Labour need to assess their strengths and weaknesses and look for unexplored options among what they currently have on-side.

2. Solution. II WANDS - "The Two of Wands describes a situation in which there is more than just a vision - some solid work has been achieved and the project is viable. Although it suggests the early stages of a venture, there is certainly more than just an idea."

A solution does materialise from within the current Labour arrangements and the party's fortunes continue to improve. Because of the disturbances in the Tory ranks predicted by the Ace, the tentative movements can be made in a climate where Labour still appear to be the best alternative. Labour have the ability to recognise their difficulties and amend them without wholesale damage to Gordon Brown - in fact it is Brown who is able to make these pro-active moves to find a solution. A much more resourceful card, which leads to a more malleable situation than Cameron's brittle hold on his party's leadership.

3. Overall outcome. ACE OF WANDS - "The Ace of Wands is a card of inspiration and vision. It represents the creative spark that is essential in order to begin any scheme or venture. The Ace of Wands reflects a time of optimism coupled with the necessary imagination and enthusiasm to get an idea off the ground."

Labour enjoy the ability to turn the tables on the Tories because they have the policy-making initiative and the executive boldness to implement them without fear. The increase in momentum here while the Tories are making their changes means that Gordon Brown is safe for the time being. Cameron should take note that the emphasis in the Wands is that of a light, nimble touch and the emphasis in his Ace - the Swords - is that of brutal, decisive change. Thus Gordon can be flexible enough to manage his party while Cameron may find himself the victim of a putsch if he does not get on and make policy putsches himself.

This is the continuation - and final part - of the series of spreads looking at the parties' prospects for an election called between now and June 2009. Part 3 is here; this spread looks at the prospects for both parties if both parties change their leaderships.

a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.

1. Polls apparent now. IX CUPS - "The Nine of Cups is traditionally connected with love, romance, sensuality and the joy that comes from feeling in harmony with another person. There are peak times in life when everything seems perfect, even if only for a little while. Moments like this are reflected by the Nine of Cups."

The Tories are here able to feel more confident that they will be able to capitalise on Labour's turmoil while having breached "Cameroon" reluctance to express themselves clearer and louder. Confidence is the key to winning an election and changing leader here means the current timidity can be replaced with riskier but more satisfying developmenmt of the policy agenda and a return to upward mobility in the polls.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. THE STAR - "The Star signifies optimism and the promising dawn of a new and better day. After darkness there is a light; after despair there is the gift of hope which the Star promises."

The confidence expressed in the above card suggests that the Tories are changing upwards a gear while Labour may be changing down. The momentum is growing and the resistance weakening, so the party receives a fillip of genuine good feeling which could defeat Labour outright.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. II WANDS - "The Two of Wands describes a situation in which there is more than just a vision - some solid work has been achieved and the project is viable. Although it suggests only the early stages of a venture, there is certainly more than just an idea."

A beginning to a positive government with all to play for - a working majority, good prospects to turn promise into policy, and a way of growing new personalities and successive prime ministers who can build on the achievements predicted here.

b. LABOUR PROSPECTS

1. Polls apparent now. - THE EMPRESS - "The Empress suggests a period of fertility and abundance. This can operate on a number of different levels, relating to family relationships and children but also to all kinds of creative projects."

An equally fertile possibility, but the abundance and fertility are in the present, rather than the future; the outcome may depend on how this feeling on the surface is evident further below in the party heartlands and currently-held marginal seats.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. IX WANDS - "The Nine of Wands describes a struggle possibly relating to creative or artistic matters that have reached a critical moment. It requires utter dedication to succeed. Even though you may feel exhausted, there is strength in reserve."

The onus is on Labour to defend its seats against a properly rejuvenated Conservative Party, thereby transferring any initiative on the part of the party into shoring up votes rather than seeking new ones. The overwhelming positivity of the Tory card in this position (a2) translates this into a loss of confidence, and the emphasis on defence might mean Labour do not stand up to the challenge because of more confidence on the part of the Tories.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. VI SWORDS - "This card suggests a shift from strained or agitated times to something more relaxed and easy-going. This might manifest in a physical move involving a change of residence of job. Alternatively it may describe a move on an inner level when attitudes alter from anxious and apprehensive to calm and confident."

Labour move from government to opposition but not as totally beaten as they were in the "Conservative leadership change only" scenario. It is probable that they once more have to explore opposition; the leadership does not change after election defeat and they can begin to rebuild, despite the potential for Tory successes continuing beyond the first parliament. A less comprehensive defeat than in the above scenario, because the change in leadership meant that old issues were ditched and the new leader was able to salvage vital seats.

Imagine the scene with anyone you imagine, be it John McCain finding out Sarah Palin has ditched him for Barack Obama or Cameron seeing Gordon Brown getting more airtime on the BBC than he did.

This just in...

Hi [Fowls], you gained H$17.40 on In the wake of Russell 
Brand's resignation as a BBC Radio 2 host, will Jonathan 
Ross also resign?

You correctly predicted No

Click here for more details and breakdown:

Good luck with your future predictions!

Still searching for another question that isn't so open-ended as to be useless for a rapid-response blog like this, but this is good news all the same.