Parliament of Fowls

Continuing the assessment of which party would win an election held between now and June 2009 - this spread is based on Labour changing its leadership. Part 2 here.

a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.

1. Polls apparent now. V WANDS - "The Five of Wands suggests a time when creative progress is either slow or obstructed perhaps by external forces or through inner blocks and inhibitions. It might reflecr a time when financial or practical hardships can hinder headway in the realm of creativity or artistic pursuit, or when inner resources are at a low point and nothing seems to quite work out."

A change in Labour leadership would lead to the Tories having more internal difficulties in the short term because they might no longer have an edge over Brown and would be confused in their initial response to the new leader (as when Brown came into power initially in summer 2007). In 2007 they nose-dived to 10 points behind in the polls and only returned to "poll position" in October after party conference season. Many suggestions have been made for this sudden bounce (from the inheritance tax cut promise - unlikely, since it would not affect many people and is not a cornerstone of a lasting political programme on its own - and Brown's floating of a possible election - more likely but still of minor and temporary import a year on) but upon a change in Labour leadership the Tories would again dip below Labour, all other things with them being equal.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. STRENGTH - "The Strength card suggests the possibility of achieving self-awareness, personal inner strength and determination, and the courage to take on the task of self-discipline."

The precious "Brown bounce" did wear off and the Tories managed to avoid a snap change of leader after the third place result in Ealing Southall in July 2007 (my own sources suggest because there was no alternative, a situation which has changed with the departure of David Davis from the Shadow Cabinet and the recovery from a kidney illness of another potential candidate). This card came up in the same position for Labour in the first part of this spread - symbolising current dynamics within the Labour hierarchy rather than on the surface thereof. The Tories would be able to regain the initiative because of the unsettling change in Labour at the end of its third term.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. KING OF WANDS - "The King of Wands suggests a warm, fiery individual is set to enter your life, generating changes and setting the scene for something new. If this card is not representing a person, it suggests the time is right for developing these qualities within you."

This would point to a Tory win, because Labour would be too unstable to be able to fight a coherent campaign without more than a year left to the final date for a dissolution. Wands are the least stable of all the suits, so the resulting government may be difficult to sustain (and Cameron would need a quick lesson in executive authority because he does not currently inspire confidence in my cards' opinions) but at least this is a King, ruling the suit and thus at least winning an election with a good working majority. Changing minds could end up undermining Downing Street, but power would be the Tories' for at least one term.

b. LABOUR PROSPECTS

1. Polls apparent now. - KNIGHT OF PENTACLES - "The Knight of Pentacles ensures that important matters will ultimately reach a sound conclusion. The qualities of perseverance and patience can be well used and will come from within or from a person entering your life."

Labour would be more confident and more optimistic but with a Knight rather than a King in the public's perception they would depend on events being in their favour rather than making the events fit the programme, as Brown is currently able to do to a certain extent. There is a loss here of executive authority and control over government - the ultimate governing card is a King of Pentacles, so any deviation from this card shows what the government lacks in comparison - suggesting the new leader would be younger than Brown and have less Cabinet experience - most likely David Miliband.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. VI PENTACLES - "The Six of Pentacles suggests that financial and material help comes in times of genuine need, and must be offered if others need it. The sense of equilibrium symbolised by the Six works both ways - to maintain balanced energy, resources need them most. This card does not promise luxury or extravagance but suggests that true needs may be met."

Labour would have a stable underpinning but not enough momentum not to become dependent on rather than independent of other people - this would also undermine confidence enough to bring about a partial collapse of the party machinery, despite the apparent stability of this card. The Tories would have uninterrupted momentum to bring Labour to a defeat - but not a huge one. Labour would become dangerously stagnant and possibly still restless because the government would have stalled fatally. It is easier to change leaders in opposition than government.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. PAGE OF WANDS - "The Page of Wands points to the beginning of a creative idea which, if carefully nurtured, may evolve into greater inspiration. As is the case with everything in embryonic form, great care must be taken to ensure its survival."

The Page of Wands is junior to the King so Labour defeat would be certain. They would exchange their greatest current asset for someone untested in one of the greater executive offices of state - three out of five new Prime Ministers over the last thirty years, all of whom have come into office while their party has been in government, have been Chancellor of the Exchequer rather than Foreign Secretary prior to their appointment or election. It would have undermined the competency Brown is beginning to show. Labour would have to start from scratch, meaning a period in opposition, internal dissent and the process of renewal in time for the next election. One advantage may well be that the leader at the election would keep control of the party, ameliorating rather than compounding the problems faced.

Part 4 and conclusions tomorrow.

Former USSR president Mikhail Gorbachev (Ural Owl totem) believes Obama will bring perestroika to the US.

Given that his record in the Baltic States left the longest trail of blood there since Stalin, I am not sure how Obama intends to bring this to the US, but let's hope he doesn't hope to emulate Gorby, being the victim of a coup while on holiday and six months later dismantling the US into "constituent republics" which then dissolve into low-level ethnic violence with crippled economies, hyperinflation and banks collapsing left, right and centre. Gordon Brown could advise him on that better perhaps than Obama can.

If I were him I would stay well out of it and concentrate on advertising Pizza Hut - as he did a number of years ago - instead.

For those looking for my response to Barack Obama's election as the 44th President of the USA, please see here.

Carrying on from Part 1 - but this time with the Conservatives changing their leadership between now and June 2009.

a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.

1. Polls apparent now. QUEEN OF SWORDS - "The Queen of Swords may suggest despondency or sorrow, often due to unrealistic expectations. She seeks a perfect world, so when she discovers clay feet she finds it more disappointing than most. You may need to examine your dreams and ideals to make sure they are realistic."

Changing leadership now would mean a more rational and realistic outlook from the Conservative Party and although this suggests a change would not be on the cards - they have too much, supposedly, to lose - it may also suggest Tories think that Cameron could not, as he currently stands, actually win an election. The Queen represents disillusionment now and may be a more realistic response to cards in other spreads which seem to show Team Cameron not having a very much longer shelf-life.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. KING OF SWORDS - "The King of Swords suggests it is time to start developing your mental skills and intellectual prowess in new ways. It can also mean that a figure of authority, perhaps connected with the legal profession, may enter your life."

As with Labour in Part 1, this suggests the Tories would be the ones in the know here and that they understand the potential that a poll would go decisively in their favour because of an ability to know that their previous strategy under Cameron had failed and know how to put it right. The King represents the new leadership having the initiative and restructuring Tory plans to expand their machine and put more money where their collective mouths are - that is, to make sure any lead solidified under constant battering in the Commons and in the country where it would hurt Labour most. The poll lead would be more solid and more definite because they would be capitalising on it, whereas Team Cameron has built its house "on the sandy land", as in the popular song.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. X SWORDS REVERSED - "This card heralds a shift of perception and consciousness. It suggests a moment of catharsis, a death/rebirth situation. Something needs to die in order to regrow."

I am always eager to keep cards upright when I spread them, because dealing with cards in a reversed aspect can be tricky when the position is also ill-dignified (for example, when it refers to an obstacle or problem, the Star reversed could suggest hopes being raised or hopes being doubly dashed, much like the phrase "I don't know nothing" being difficult to parse logically, if not communicatively). However, when they fall out of the pack reversed of their own accord, they are to be treated as such because that's Fate for you. Thus this represents not the end of the line for the Tories - but the end of the line for their adversaries. A change now would mean that Labour would be wiped out on the scale of a 1997 - reversed and that this moment in political history could go down as far into history as 1945 did as another watershed moment. At least a 100+ majority and more - IF the Tories change their leadership to take advantage of what Team Cameron is currently ignoring.

b. LABOUR PROSPECTS

1. Polls apparent now. - PAGE OF CUPS - "When this card appears it hints at changes in the emotional life. On a literal level it can bring news of the birth of a child, or it could symbolise the birth of new feelings."

Labour here are still able to prepare solutions to a change in Tory leadership, and carry forward workable solutions - after all, they are in executive authority. The insistence and depth of the Page of Cups still combines to bolster Labour's hopes enough for a poll to be a viable option. I have a feeling that the articulation of a concrete Tory plan would offer an opportunity to try and demonstrate that a left-wing programme could be workable instead. This may also explain the ambivalence of the corresponding Tory card above (a1).

2. Underlying stability of campaign. IV CUPS - "The Four of Cups describes a sense of dissatisfaction on an emotional level with one's lot in life. Even with little in reality to warrant such discontent, there is nevertheless a sense of futility or depression coming from within. This card suggests a feeling of boredom and even a refusal to make an effort to improve the situation."

The leadership change in the Conservative Party has damaged the underlying confidence of Labour and has also proved the resilience of the platform on which the Tories fought the 2005 election. This psychological aspect means that Labour, even after calling a poll based on the hopes in b1, because they believed they had the Tories dancing to their tune but the more concrete articulation of policies which have not differed that much since 2005 - thanks in part to Cam's loyalty to his own manifesto, which he co-wrote for Michael Howard, despite his attempts to "detoxify" the brand - has paid dividends for the Tories in the longer term. SImply put, the Tories are outclassing Labour where it matters - on the streets - and have wounded them mortally.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. THE EMPRESS - "The Empress suggests a period of fertility and abundance. This can operate on a number of different levels, relating to family relationships and children but also to all kinds of creative projects."

This card is ill-dignified because of the effect of the Four of Cups above and the intensification and reflection of the Ten of Swords in the corresponding Tory position (a3). Labour find their base but the inertia of The Empress and the negativity of surrounding cards for Labour suggests that they are caught like a rabbit in the headlights here, a sitting target. The passive nature of this card suggests that the party stagnates and gives up, failing to make a comprehensive counter-challenge to the Conservatives under new management. As the reversed Ten suggests wipeout, this is the passivity and apathy that allows it and allows British politics to move into its next cycle and/or era.

Part 3 either later or tomorrow depending on my energy levels - trying to upload some more eBay auctions to part-fund my trip to the Baltics at the end of the month so please take a look here.

WELL DONE BARACK OBAMA!

I said I would "vote" for McCain, but what a result for the cards and my sixth sense!

I always hoped it would be Hillary but I kind of knew it would be Obama. After McCain was selected and Hillary didn't look good any more I decided I would "vote" Republican but, like when I went up the Twin Towers in 1998 and the only thing I felt was down, down, down, this year the word in my mind has been Barack, Barack, Barack.

Well done, Barack. Now you've got to walk the walk, after talking the talk. Difficult, because that Death card just won't go away, but with all the best will in the world, I do hope you do well, because I would hate people to be disappointed. Maybe governments should come with 90-day money back guarantees if not completely satisfied. It might have got rid of Tony Blair a lot sooner, given some electoral data I'm working on in the real world. Perhaps that sums up the basis of democracy for us - just look at Jimmy Carter. You can't force people to vote for you - just ask the Fabians. Part of the problem with the last two elections in America are that people couldn't accept that they had been fairly beaten, by the constitution if nothing else. I remember in 2000 enjoying giggling over "stupid Americans in Florida" over the hanging-chads issue. Then suddenly it was revealed that the disputed votes came from predominantly African-American areas. Suddenly it got extremely serious, as if it was no longer right to giggle at proceedings because it became a travesty of justice had been committed with racial motives. Perhaps this will lay people's minds to rest once and for all - the Republicans were not out to steal this one, they didn't suddenly cancel the election (like I heard said on forums a year or so ago) and they conceded defeat and are about to leave office.

As I said on my first post, democracy is a fact of life. Saying the electorate is stupid or insane just because they don't vote the way you do is symptomatic of both left and right and usually covers up a profoundly anti-democratic streak in all who claim that. I am not particularly happy at this result, I am a conservative and a Conservative who is even sceptical of her own leadership's ability to talk the talk, let alone walk the walk. But I am certainly not about to claim it was rigged, nor am I going through the results in Ohio looking for clues. If there are any issues out there they will come to light soon enough. But I think the Democrats now have reasons to put 2000 well behind them and move on.

Next Left has however revealed how idiotic the Tories have been on this one. More pressing readings loom, but had I time I would examine Louise Bagshawe's claims fully. It is good news for the Tories only so much as they can project themselves as the party of change. Since that change means keeping to Labour's spending plans - or maybe not - I don't know what their slogan will be...

"Yes we can't"?

I'll get the posters made up now, shall I, Cambo?

By the way, Barack is a raccoon-totem person, and thus shares some traits (though not all) with our Mr Foxy Cameron. Raccoons, however, are unlike foxes in that they are less for show and more intelligent where it matters - in terms of knowing what is going on rather than just living the high-life - so I still suspect Cameron will not get such a landslide next time, even though he was anxious at the launch of Americaintheworld to link himself to Obama, he still tried to have it both ways and publicly support McCain at conference this year, before it was obvious that Sarah Palin was not as hot as she would have been had she kept her mouth shut. Raccoons are also more down-to-earth than foxes, and although they are lightweight as politicians, they do actually tend to be better at listening to people and don't tend to take so many holidays on multi-millionaire's yachts.

I hope no-one here also thinks I am being racist. Obama may be a raccoon, but other prominent black politicians in this country and in the US have had similar totems to white politicians. Jesse Jackson is a beaver (same as Sarah Palin); Martin Luther-King was a buffalo, as are the Clintons and as was JFK. Spirits who reincarnate tend to take different nationalities and ethnicities over time; Owlperson informs me I was a German soldier last time round, who emigrated to the US after the war and died just before Nixon left office. He also tells me I am a natural conservative, having voted Republican at all elections that I was eligible to vote for.

Perhaps McCain should have chosen Condoleeza Rice (a bat spirit - as is Tony Benn) as his VP, as Owlperson says if he was still alive he would like to give her one. He is pleased that barred owl spirit Joe Biden is now VP-elect, given that he says owls make very good politicians (why else would they form parliaments in the wild?). Never mind, there is always 2012.