Parliament of Fowls

This idea came from William Rees-Mogg's article in the Times yesterday wondering why Labour seemed happy to call a snap election if they won Glenrothes and arguing the current state of the polls might make them think twice even if they hold the Scottish seat.

My feeling is that Labour do have reasons to be cheerful. I remember a lot of effort last parliament from the Tories to put out a lot of policies which were geared towards the interests of the majority of people - talking about the "right to choose" in healthcare and education, for example, or childcare/maternity payments to assist mothers-to-be, or the standard output on immigration and school discipline - but can't see much of the same activity happening now, for example, even when the Tories had the initiative and the agenda-setting powers over the spring and summer. With the lead currently at roughly 8 or 9 points (the Independent's poll of polls today puts the lead at 11 points, but includes the 12-point Guardian lead done just prior to Yachtgate, which is unrepresentative because it was published before Osborne's fracas with Mandelson, Rothschild and Deripaska - "who's been schmoozing on MY yacht?!") one would think that Brown would not cut and run until he really had to, i.e. June 2010 (Parliament has to be dissolved by May 2010, but that means a three week election campaign, so the last possible polling date is in June that year).

However discussions with colleagues during the 2005 election suggested to me that poll leads actually narrow during the campaign and leads projected in polls, particularly in mid-term, are always subject to change at an election as people make up their minds based on competing platforms. It is also that election which suggests the Tories want to leave it as late as possible to reveal their manifesto to prevent Labour using their executive mandate to implement large slices of it before polling day, in order to neutralise any popular policies coming out of CCHQ. But as Matthew d'Ancona suggested too, that although between the 2004 conference and 2005 election lay seven months of hard campaigning time (four of them which I took off work to participate on that campaign), the Tories could not expect to beat Labour in 28 weeks. The Tories currently have no concrete manifesto, no over-arching programme, have had to reorientate their plans away from the vague "sharing the proceeds of growth" ideals they had adopted, and recently abandoned the plans to keep spending at Labour levels for two years after the changeover (a move made about two weeks before conference), probably meaning they now need to rethink tax/spend plans or make them up as they go along after riding into government on a crest of a wave of disillusionment and apathetic anti-Brown public energy.

Michael Howard meanwhile had a well-thought out and well costed strategy, a clear campaigning message and other policies which moved the Tories away from traditional battlegrounds (Europe and immigration) to talking about health, education, social security provision and so on. He got me, a long-time Labour supporter born of Liberal (Democrat) parents, into the Tory party, a decision which took me six months and got me nothing but grief from my parents and ex-boyfriend. Now I would still vote Tory, but see no reason to campaign so vigorously for a leadership which cannot even make up its mind what it would do about vague spending plans, let alone come up with punchy, interesting and relevant ideas to fit in around macroeconomic projections.

At what point does this caution become a liability? Will the Tories currently win an election or would they have to have a change of personnel at the top to actually overcome this dangerous inertia and stop people going back to the government because of policies that are increasingly looking like they will be made up on the back of a beer-mat two or three days before the polls close? Meanwhile, will Labour win with Brown in charge, or will they too have to start afresh?

Because this is a question with four possible scenarios, I have split it down into four different posts, all of which I hope to have published by the time the Glenrothes result comes in on Thursday night.

This particular post is to do with NO CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP FOR EITHER PARTY - that is, David Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party and Gordon Brown as leader of the Labour Party/Prime Minister.

a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.

1. Polls apparent now. ACE OF PENTACLES - "The Ace in the earthy suit of Pentacles represents potential for financial propositions or business ventures. It can signify lump sums suddenly being made available, either through shrewd investment or generous gifts."

The Tories are banking on a solid lead being maintained and carrying this through a three-week campaign without loss. This is why some commentators assume the Labour Party are deluding themselves on the winnability of any election between now and next summer, let alone 2010, given the bleak economic prospects and the probability people will blame this on Brown.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. II WANDS - "The Two of Wands describes a situation in which there is more than just a vision - some solid work has been achieved and the project is viable. Although it suggests only the early stages of a venture, there is certainly more than just an idea."

There may be viability in Tory commentators' assumptions that by going to the polls now Labour can avoid a complete wipeout and maintain a more dignified oppositional approach rather than let the Tories win a 1997-style landslide. However since Wands are the least stable of the suits (as opposed to the firmer Pentacles) there is a danger that by pressing hard for an election now - as the Tories did last time one was proposed in September/October 2007 - without doing more work on policy they risk losing the apparent solidity of the poll lead and seeing it evaporate. Without another conference to put the skeleton of a proper manifesto out, they cannot make enough noise to capitalise on the current 8-9% lead.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. KNIGHT OF SWORDS - "The Knight of Swords represents a sudden change. Although this may be disruptive, it is necessary as the current situation may be getting stagnant."

The Tories would be rash to rely solely on mid-term polls and push for an election now rather than spending more time working on policy and spinning the parliament out as long as possible - the last two changes in government have both come only at a time when the government was forced to call an election rather than when it could freely choose the election date. Despite people disgruntled with Labour or Brown calling for an election to remove him from office, any election now would only disrupt Tory preparations and allow Labour to catch up, surpass and win a 1992-style victory against the odds.

b. LABOUR PROSPECTS

1. Polls apparent now. - KING OF SWORDS - "The King of Swords suggests it is time to start developing your mental skills and intellectual prowess in new ways. It can also mean that a figure of authority, perhaps connected with the legal profession, may enter your life."

The devil is in the detail here for Labour as they are able to see things - whether in private polling or other similar research or psephological studies - that journalists discussing poll ratings cannot. Brown would need to be certain that he could pull off a "1992" scenario before going to the polls, but the precedents for an election during a recession are nonetheless fairly encouraging for the governing party.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. STRENGTH - "The Strength card suggests the possibility of achieving self-awareness, personal inner strength and determination, and the courage to take on the task of self-discipline."

Strength to me suggests that Labour is much more controlled and controlling, meaning that their certainty is greater than the Tories' that the poll ratings would in fact narrow and the gap probably close and/or open up in the other direction. The Tories cannot here match Labour's policies despite the recession Britain is entering. Moreover Labour can also be assured that in its current form the Tories are not seeking to capitalise on Labour's discomfort in Scotland or its position in Wales, and are not developing parliamentary bases outside England from which to launch more MPs onto a Westminster career. Without these areas, they would not be able to break Labour's grip, however tenuous, on government. So Labour have more reasons to go to the country than to hang back until forced to.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. PAGE OF CUPS - "When this card appears it hints at changes in the emotional life. On a literal level it can bring news of the birth of a child, or it could symbolise the birth of new feelings."

Labour would not by any stretch of the imagination win another landslide, but if a poll was called within the next eight months they would make a tentative recovery and provide solutions to challenges faced by the country, enough to erode Tory confidence and belligerence. The possibility of government for the Tories would have to wait until 2013-14. Labour could govern adequately on a small majority and the Tories would have little new responses beyond the failure of the Cameron leadership. Thus Labour are actually right to be hopeful of fully reversing the trend visible over the previous year because of Tory inertia.

All other things being equal, of course.

This post should have been made yesterday, but I was too knackered last night to upload it. The quote and the article in question are here

It occurs to me after reading the latest posts on Conservative Home that we are not entirely being fair to poor old Dave the Fokssss (spelling (c) the Basil Brush Show) and are behaving in the way a pack of hounds may do if they picked up his scent in the fields of Witney. This blog is biased against him, just like the "Brown Broadcasting Corporation" habitually picks on the Tories and should therefore have their pocket money stopped - whereas, of course, most of the commercial press are unbiased in saying Gordon should have a snap election that he can win now, saying it out of their own financial interests of course.

I can't reiterate my opposition to the license fee often enough, but the Tories are mistaking general grumbling about the license fee for full-on riots such as the poll tax protests if they think it is the hottest electoral issue this side of a recession. You've got a lot of work to do on policy, Dave, before you can get the bias against you stopped, I suggest you do it now while people are still listening, because if the cards are right then you are not going to see the next election as leader, even if it is called before Christmas. And I'm not saying this as someone funded or employed by the government - I WISH.

However, let's see later on if Labour are, in William Rees-Mogg's opinion, celebrating too early. For the moment, I have Foxy Dave's latest spread before me, so let's have a look.

P.S. at the end of the month I am off on a "fact-finding" tour of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia courtesy of my ever-generous grandmother. The fact-finding in question is a taste-test of all the zeppelins in Vilnius, which I haven't done since they entered the EU four-and-a-half years ago. The question is, do EU zeppelins taste better than non-EU zeppelins? Can this be assumed to be a measure of how much Eastern European dumplings have improved since accession? And will I avoid hospitalisation in Latvia this time? (DO NOT end up getting off with people in Vilnius bus station and then drinking Tallinn tap-water, because the porridge in Riga hospital is not very nice, too little salt and too much butter.) I will be blogging throughout, anything to give poor Dave a rest and give the hounds a drag hunt instead.

Cards are the Renaissance Tarot and the Julia Sharman-Burke exercise book "Tarot for Beginners".

Should Dave have distanced himself from redistribution of the license fee to other commercial broadcasters?

1. Cameron's current position. THE HIEROPHANT - "The Hierophant signifies the search for inner meaning and spiritual awareness. He stands for guidance on spiritual or emotional matters."

Cameron is trying to temper earlier radicalism with more realistic policies because he evidently finds himself in a situation where official policy is more extreme than he now feels is appropriate - oddly enough, as the debate grows more and more shrill over on Conservative Home, the Tories grow more and more lukewarm over reform. He has suddenly woken up to impracticalities in the scheme they originally proposed and now feels it is more appropriate to withdraw from plans which no longer give apparent value for money. He hopes to balance radicalism with pragmatism as the election approaches. An interesting and no doubt carefully considered move.

2. Defence of his moves. JUDGEMENT - "Judgement represents a time for personal evaluation and learning lessons gained through experience. It is a time to reap the rewards, or otherwise, for past efforts."

Moving on from the previous ideas, Cameron is - internally - trying to refocus attention on himself and his party and make the effort to change direction in full view. Given erosion of poll support and lukewarm backing for radical proposals, Cameron is probably trying to tone down the scale of policies based on new economic realities. Judgement suggests Cam has been put under pressure from somewhere to tone down his plans for the BBC because of other considerations, so judgement has evidently been passed by people behind the scenes who are concerned about the party's recent performance and the need for less radicalism and a more pragmatic stance.

3. Hidden fears. X CUPS (ill-dignified) - "The Ten of Cups reflects a state of contentment that has a sense of permanence. It is connected with a capacity to love, a generous spirit and the ability to give freely without counting the cost. This card also suggests a sense of gratitude for love given and received."

As an ill-dignified card the meaning of the card is reversed - so Cameron has something to fear by this policy and has thus backtracked from it, while still trying to highlight bias in the Sun article. Here the danger is lack of acceptance of this state and lack of gratitude - there isn't much scope for Cameron to change his mind at this stage but something is evidently problematic in the background to this. Either Cam thought he was moving too fast and needed to reassure people who want a more pragmatic approach, or the policy was rejected by those trying to sell the Conservative platform to voters outside the Westminster hothouse who care more about media opinion than more substantial policy. The policy is seen as too fancy to appeal to focus groups suddenly worried more about their bank accounts, savings and mortgages than more esoteric concerns.

4. Motivations in the first place. QUEEN OF WANDS - "The Queen of Wands suggests that a person who possessed her qualities of warmth, imagination and joie de vivre may enter your life, or that you are in need of developing such attributes."

The motivations for Cam to renege on this deal may have been a need to demonstrate a responsive, active role in policymaking given the memo leaked on Sunday regarding a need to buck up the party's profile and recycle old policies in the case where no new ones yet exist. (That this was followed so soon with a "repeat" of Andrew Lansley's idea to shorten the time between a new drug coming out and its availability on the NHS is proof that this policy has been put very quickly into effect despite the leak of the memo.) He needs to show the party thinking on its feet and participating in a policy auction with Labour, who have more executive power at their fingertips. There is a fear of appearing fossilised and unresponsive to the change in atmosphere. The Queen of Wands responds and reacts rather than dictates, so it may be a diminution of the leadership's power to make the headlines rather than an acceleration of policy publication.

5. What remains now of the policy? X PENTACLES - (ill-dignified) - "The Ten, number of completion, comes to its natural conclusion in the earthy suit of Pentacles [traditionally regarded as the "last" card in the tarot set]. There is a sense of permanence achieved partly through effort and partly through good fortune. In a reading, the Ten of Pentacles indicates a materially settled way of life which may include property sale or purchase. It can also refer to traditional values being established."

In this aspect - what remains - this is ill-dignified, and can be interpreted as the erosion of concrete policy because of fears or dithering. The issue of restructuring the funding of the BBC is salient but a minor issue compared to the general needs of the rest of the electorate (aside from a vocal, comfortable minority who can afford to focus on this). The small changes to this policy will not matter much in the long run but it is a waste of the agenda and may harm Cameron's reputation as a potential PM able to put things into operation in an executive capacity.

6. Immediate future. IV PENTACLES - "Within a reading the Four of Pentacles suggests a fear of loss, which may in fact have the effect of inhibiting gain. On one level it may refer to material possessions, while on another level it suggests that the way money is handled may link with emotional dealings. This card, therefore, can represent a tendency to be 'tight' with money or emotions. Traditionally it is known as the card of the miser."

The inhibitions belie any positive effect of reassessing the role of the license fee and the BBC. The caution and partial U-turn suggest a risk-averse climate which could alienate voters who do care about the license fee, while concentrating too much on this issue will alienate those who want the Conservatives to cover more pressing issues - health, education, social security - in bigger, bolder terms than they have done recently (is the length of time new drugs take to filter through to NHS prescriptions really a hot health-care issue? Nice work, Andrew, incidentally, but hardly a show-stopper). The Tories need to gamble with harder-hitting policies (where are their policies on childcare and maternity benefit like Michael Howard tried to talk about at this point in 2004?), answers to Labour (tax-cuts or Keynesianism? If they don't put out anything significant, will we have to swallow Keynesianism by default after years where monetarism has worked to modernise the economy?), innovation on the economy (such as Margaret Thatcher's new direction this time last cycle) - and stop being so shy about stating them.

7. Long term future. ACE OF SWORDS - "The Ace of Swords points to strength in adversity or a situation which initially looks unpromising yet has a positive outcome. This card is usually associated with a sense of the inevitability of great change. Although this change may initially be unwelcome, it is ultimately beneficial."

Something happens to break the deadlock and release some sort of radical rethink on the license fee and funding, but it seems to be a more drastic solution - and with other spreads taken into account probably decidedly unwelcome to the leadership - to this particular issue than the Tories necessarily want or can currently afford. The price of not risking coherent or consistent output is that, in the words of the popular internet meme, "in Soviet Conservative Party, Party leads YOU!"