Parliament of Fowls

Just made a prediction on this Question...

 

As usual I pulled cards:

DAVID CAMERON - IX CUPS - Good, solid lead, best chances of the names listed.
DAVID MILIBAND - THE CHARIOT - Insurgent candidate but probably no longer in the running due to his premature disloyalty over the summer.
NICK CLEGG - THE LOVERS - Slow and steady might win the race but not rushing anywhere.

However, the interesting thing was this result:
OTHER - THE EMPEROR - The supreme leadership card in the pack, and the best matched to positions of ultimate success.

"Other" also seems to have gone up in price since the beginning of October, perhaps suggesting the Tories might be considering another regicide or two before the election because of the Cameron bubble appearing to have burst.

So who is this mystery other? The Tarot never lies, not in this situation...

Names to me by January 1.

The conversation over bias in the BBC rumbles on. Bruce Anderson yesterday let the cat out of the bag that the Tories' quick-fire policy on the BBC was because of general bias, not specifically a response to the Brand/Ross saga. Today Cameron writes in the Sun:

"But, I can hear the cry, what about the left-wing bias?

My answer is: yes, the BBC does have what even Andrew Marr called an “innate liberal bias”, principally because it does not have to behave like a commercial organisation and make its money from scratch every year.

That tends to make the BBC instinctively pro-Big State, distinctly iffy about the free market and sometimes dismissive of a conservative viewpoint.

I’ll never forget, some years ago, sitting next to a BBC presenter at a function and being told it was just about all right to have Conservative politicians on the radio, but “there weren’t really any you would want to see socially”.

And ironically that leads me to another reason not to lay into the BBC. I need it and our democracy needs it.

With ITV doing less and less politics, and with newspaper readership in decline, the importance of the BBC in general — and the big audience evening news programmes in particular — for political parties trying to get their message across cannot be overstated.

But even I, a fan of the BBC, think that it’s time for change. The telltale signs are there for all to see."

 

Are there really that many people out there who complain about pro-Tory bias? Who have the time to discuss this? OK, there's us at Conservative Home, but seriously, I'm glad Cameron is actually reading Tory Home these days, but perhaps he is reading it too much if he thinks Sun readers are seriously interested in the Conservatives getting the push from TV. If there are any telltale signs it is that he can't make his mind up what his own party should be putting out:

"Tory leader David Cameron today distanced himself from his party's previously stated policy of top-slicing the BBC's licence fee to help fund the corporation's public service broadcasting rivals.

Cameron said he was "sceptical" of the proposal to use some of the corporation's licence fee to help fund Channel 4's £150m funding gap.

The Conservatives have previously endorsed the proposal, under which other broadcasters would be entitled to apply for BBC licence fee funds."

 

Further to this I will be asking two questions today - one, whether the Conservatives are not deluding themselves about bias, and two, what Cameron is up to trying to weasel out of previously stated policy and what it can augur in the short, medium and long term.

1. Conservatives' perception. THE LOVERS - "A time of choice, the outcome of which is of crucial importance. Reliance on intuition rather than intellect is advised, on inspiration rather than reason. This card can indicate a flash of insight that resolves an apparently insoluble problem. Also a moral choice which depends on maturity and integrity."

Cameron is relying on his own feelings in this debate about what is important to him rather than making a dispassionate and professional assessment of the actual facts. He is relying on an emotional response and to stoke the fears that people may have of Labour control over the BBC, rather than make a more rational or even radical intervention. He is going on the hunch that what matters to his supporters on Conservative Home matters to the general public.

2. BBC perception. ACE OF PENTACLES - "Security, firm foundations, wealth, possessions, appreciation of the good things of life, the approach to the Spirit through the things of Earth. Stoicism, the ability to endure adversity with steadfastness."

The BBC is not so much biased in any one direction as controlled directly by the government and unwilling to be undermined by any one party. The financial control the government has partly accounts for accusations, and the Ace suggests there is some substance in the accusations (particularly as it was one deliberately obvious comment about no Sunday newspapers supporting the Conservative Party the weekend before the last election - when I could count three in front of me at least - that stopped me watching BBC News output in the first place). This is outweighed, however, by the more rational approach from the BBC and the unwillingness here to be manipulated - stoic in the face of provocation. It also may refer to there being some substance in the coverage of Yachtgate, rendering most of the Tory complaints at least as biased as the corporation they are accusing.

3. Conservatives' orientations. III SWORDS - "Necessary strife and conflict. Destruction of that which is obsolete in order to clear the groun for what will come after. Disruption, upheaval, separation and discord, but all with a positive end in view - the establishment of something better."

The Tories here want to destroy and rebuild the current status quo, which raises fears that if they did, would they themselves not be accused of bias? Commercial newspapers all have a bias and if the Conservatives want to release the BBC into the same arena they might find it coming back to haunt them if their popularity takes a nose-dive - as it has recently. If they have a problem with coverage of late, should they not be avoiding the yachts of billionaire Russians who make Sir Royston Merchant of Drop The Dead Donkey look genial and benign? As much as I've heard biased commentary on the BBC, and no longer particularly trust them (or any other news outlet), neither do I trust any one party to rectify the situation by approaching it in a destructive manner. This card may therefore be the consequences of any attempt to interfere.

4. BBC orientations. X SWORDS - "Desolation, disruption and ruin - generally referring to a group or community rather than an individual. But cause for hope is suggested here. This card represents the nadir - the lowest point in this cycle of fortune. From now on things can only get better. The worst has already been experienced."

The BBC is matching the Tories - it is dangerous for one paty to threaten them because the bias could get worse and rebound on the Tories by more thorough - and legitimate - scrutiny of the party. The BBC cannot be expected to stop investigating one party just because its supporters and leaders find it uncomfortable not to be on the front foot any more. It can be stopped, but only if the Tories don't look as if they are rattled by scrutiny of their personnel. The Ten of Swords represents a more destructive force than the Three, because the BBC has more executive power than the Conservatives currently do and can make more decisive moves.

5. Meeting point/junction. DEATH - "An unexpected major change in circumstances which is nevertheless the natural outcome of a prevailing situation. Destruction which is a blessing in disguise as it clears the way for something better. The removal from one's life of that which is outdated or superfluous in order that one might more forward into the future unhindered."

The Conservatives and the BBC are on a deadly collision course and it is believeable to say that since the party has no executive authority to implement their proposals or vent their spleen, the Party may come off worse in this encounter. The BBC would not be directly influenced but the Tories' naked hostility because of perceived bias suggests their political immaturity will end up casting them quite a considerable amount of credibility and authority with more neutral commentators, and it might introduce unconscious bias into the BBC's news studios. The Tories have been foolish to call the corporation into account at such a vulnerable time when the real source of the Yachtgate story was the Murdoch-owned Times. The Tories will live to regret this.

6. Outcome for the BBC. VI SWORDS - "The solving of immediate problems, a moving away from imminent danger. Does not suggest complete success which absolves the need for further struggle, but indicates that some major obstacle has been overcome and progress can be resumed. May indicate travel away from trouble to more harmonious circumstances and surroundings."

The BBC has taken steps to sack the latest offenders and put its staff salaries under review. There is little more it can - or indeed should - do to assuage Conservative fears, given they are probably not representative of majority opinion; even from people who resent the large sums of money paid to presenters such as Ross and who oppose the license fee (particularly as it is now classified as a tax), it would be foolish to try and claim special treatment for Tory spokespeople who cannot otherwise get exposure. The BBC has made changes and has moved on.

7. Outcome for the Conservatives. II CUPS - "Dissent, separation, divorce, deceit or unfaithfulness in a personal relationship. The throwing away of a valuable gift, the betrayal of trust. Also jealousy, vindictiveness, irresponsible revealing of the affairs of another."

Because of the proximity of Death and several Swords cards the Two of Cups becomes ill-digified by its surroundings and thus dangerous for the Tories. This pulls the outcome down for the Tories and begins a period of naked vindictiveness which will ultimately backfire. If the Tories do not stand back from sectional interests and try to present themselves as reasonable, rational and responsible rather than hasty and aggressive.

EDIT - I will post the next spread tomorrow as I am tireder than I thought I might be after cooking dinner.

The Fabian Society blog Next Left is usually turgid. The Fabian Society is on the earnest left but also after sitting through one too many Fabian conferences during my time in the Labour Party I think I must have joined the Conservative Party initially out of boredom rather than anything else (and because I ended up sabotaging Labour campaigning either by going AWOL during a street stall to buy the Spectator or dumping the leaflets in the nearest bin and going Alsatian-scaring instead). Anyway, the last time the Fabians did me any favours - at the Adam Smith Institute - I ended up pulling Michael Howard, so perhaps I have my Tory party career to thank them for.

However it seems to be difficult to leave a comment as an unregistered user on Next Left - it shouldn't be so difficult to correct the odd howler in their sports pages. I can forgive them anything, but being so out of touch that they don't know Chris Hoy's name is worthy of a whole post in their honour.

This isn't going to be a spread as such, although there is no Hubdub button on it I want to try and see whether there is any scope for a General Election, either this autumn or next summer. All other things are equal, of course (assuming no changes of leadership on the Tory or Labour benches), but will Gordon try and cut the Tories off at the pass while they don't have another actual conference until autumn 2009?

I've drawn eight cards, for the next eight months (starting in January, as realistically there is no chance for one before Christmas - they would need to call it by the third week in November to squeeze it in, and I don't put it past Brown to want more time to think about it). These are Oracle Tarot cards, as they have keywords as well as long explanations and my infected finger is about twice the size it was yesterday before the Portillo spread, so just quickie descriptions and commentary.

This is assuming Brown as PM and Cameron as Leader of the Opposition. Remember, Brown could call a poll tomorrow but it wouldn't be held for three weeks. This gives time for poll ratings to fluctuate too, so a poll today does not indicate what the figures would be after a three-week campaign.

JANUARY - 2 CUPS - Loving union, teamwork.

Chances slim. Gordon will be wanting to consolidate and develop his agenda rather than cut and run.

FEBRUARY - TEMPERANCE - Balance, harmony.

Gordon has begun to balance the books and although still slightly wobbly, he is beginning to get going on something major.

MARCH - 7 SWORDS - Ego, internal politics.

Trickier time with things finely balanced. Gordon is beginning to overcome internal issues in the Labour Party - and squeeze his way past any other problems.

APRIL - THE LOVERS - Soul mate, decisions.

An auspicious time with most of the previous problems overcome. The most likely time for a snap poll to be called.

MAY - 10 SWORDS - Healing, second chance.

A positive spin on a card which is usually negative. Second chance doesn't bode well but looks like this is the most likely time for an election despite the European elections due a month later.

JUNE - 8 WANDS - Swift decisions.

A quick fix to a long-standing problem is what I'm getting in this context. If this is after an election it looks like Gordon might do a drastic reshuffle or re-arrangement of the confusing cabinet constellation of ministries. The card is talking here of movement rather than lasting solidity, so it may well be the aftermath of an election which sees his majority cut but not by enough to force him out. He may need to move quickly to shore up votes in the Euro-elections.

JULY - THE TOWER - Discovery, change, adjustments.

Again, longer-lasting and more momentous events on the horizon; he will be governing with a reduced majority but the Tories are likely to be looking for another leader (could they find it with several prominent possibilities leaving Parliament at the next election? Is Ken Clarke finally going to get his turn?) so he might find it easy again to adjust things to his own advantage.

AUGUST - 10 CUPS - Blessed love life

There is a sense of completion and relief here, and the possibility for sharing the wealth after a long, hard but rewarding
struggle.

------

All in all it doesn't look too good from my perspective as a Tory supporter.

Personally I don't want another Labour government because of the damage it would do to the Conservative Party, who have always had continuity in the leadership between one government and the next - part of the reason why Michael Howard got my active support in 2005 because he was the last plausible link with the 1979-97 period. If they fail this time, they will not only be heading for a similar period in the wilderness that Labour had during the Thatcher/Major years, they would also lack personnel with any experience of government, and the crucial solidity, weight and charisma of people like Straw, Blunkett, Cook, Mowlam, Cunningham, Beckett and others who have actually been a credit to the Labour Party despite the gradual android takeover during the latter half of the Blair years. Labour also breed heavyweights in opposition, while the Tories breed them in government. Apart from David Davis, there would be no-one else left to lead the party; and we could still buy off PPCs in the seats which the people I have in mind are leaving with another seat elsewhere before any election to keep the top staff in Westminster. (We need PPCs desperately, the strategy of choosing them three or four years before the election has backfired as people not only get bored and fractious waiting for the poll but also see the possibility of their seat turning blue evaporate with that 20% poll lead and decided not to bother.)

And I'm not sure DD would have the charisma necessary to win the election (if he does, he might resign his seat again if he does something he doesn't like). If Cameron can't do it, who can?

Michael Portillo has written an interesting column in the Sunday Times regarding Brown's tactics for an early election. I have to admit that during the run-up to the previous election I found him singularly disloyal to his own party once the going became harder and we needed his support all the more keenly. However, finding myself opposing my own party even while it was 20 points ahead in the polls, I now value his commentary because, although usually scrupulously loyal (equal to about half a Finkelstein on the scale of sheer bloody-minded Cameronness), he does store it all up for the occasions where he can break ranks and explain what he really sees. It is far better for him to be loyal and then disloyal, rather than spend his column inches lambasting the leadership even during the good times and therefore not really being worth noticing when times get harder. Simon Heffer I agree with more often but since he has been anti-Cameron for a long time noticing when he is striking a chord with others is a matter of reading between the lines when his comments are given a front-page call-out in the Diet Torygraph. I don't want someone who is constantly anti- or pro. I want to know what the agenda is for the middle ground. That's mainly why I abandoned the BBC as my home-page and chose to use MSN for a while - so I knew if a news story made it there, it was deemed relevant to non-political readers and therefore was much more important than "Cameron makes speech to FoxyCo Inc. about how best to pluck a chicken - Liam Byrne sticks two fingers up and calls him a cowardy-custard" making the fourth headline down on the right-hand side at the Beeb. In short, if Simon Heffer gets one of his rants onto the front page of the Torygraph, he must be making sense to some other people except me and my friend Mr Eeyore, who supplied me with most of his back-catalogue back in May when I needed cheering up.

The gist of the article is that Brown may well call an earlier election - next spring or summer - before the economy really starts slowing down properly - and that the Tories have "no plan B" to respond to the economic and financial crisis. He doesn't elaborate on what he thinks should happen within the Conservative ranks, instead concentrating on Brown's perceived recklessness that might cause him to call an election before things get too bad and people still remember him as the person who saved the world. My instinct is that if the Tories can't respond now, they will lose momentum and people will not actually feel they have any alternative to Labour, unless something dramatic happens in the meantime to turn things around. If they persist with a Shadow Cabinet full of dilettantes, if they continue to persecute the BBC over "bias", if they cannot put out at least the bare bones of a manifesto, then they will have to find new management to begin to turn things around, particularly if they do not have another conference between now and an election, like Michael Howard did in 2004 after a summer in which his initial seven-month boom went bust during the European elections that year. The Timetable for Action may not have won us the election but at least it was a good outline of what the party would do in office, and it was fully published at this point in the 2001-05 parliament. No similar Tory document exists yet, leading to suspicions that the Tories don't have anything resembling a manifesto. A Tory MP (nameless to avoid embarrassment) promised me policies "within a few months" - back in August. A Tory agent (again, nameless) promised me policies "by August" - meaning August 2007. Every time I ask the machine, that is the answer I get. So not surprisingly, Brown could gamble an early election now that he is in the zone without Tory comeback, obtain a mandate as Major did in 1992, and leave the Tories casting around for another leader.

Or the Tories could get their act together, give up their second jobs, put out the policies they are always promising me, and get into office. Even Michael Portillo sees this. Why can't Team Cameron?

Enough with the opinion, I'm at 4000 characters already. On with the card analysis of Portillo's column. I am using the Cavendish Oracle tarot.

S. Situation. THE MAGICIAN: Intuition, taking chances - "You are now entering a time when your confidence and abilities will blossom. You may find you are able to convince people simply, that your skills of persuasion are sharper than ever before, and that you can complete complex tasks with ease and impressive finesse. Revel in the moment."

Portillo is summarising the situation here in respect of Brown's own hunches being correct and capitalising on his past improvement in form and re-establishment of control over the agenda and economic situation. Portillo is suggesting that Brown has found his spark and is able to use his position to capitalise on it in an early election because of a falling-off of coherent and focused opposition.

1. External thoughts. THE HERMIT: Wisdom of solitude - "This card reveals that the Universe advises you to withdraw from worldly matters for a time in order to reflect and know your true self again. You need to take yourself away from the situation for a time in order to understand the true significance. This could be as simple as not wanting to head out to social events and parties - or even just a desire to speak more softly and less often when with your closest friends. Either way you wil be a more contemplative and earnest soul under this influence. Look to understand what karma is teaching you, and be prepared for occasions when you may feel a little different among others, perhaps even something of a misfit. You will rejoin them at a later time - refreshed and wiser than you were before."

Portillo is speaking as a neutral observer - able to hold the situation at arm's length and produce a careful article. Like me he is not especially loyal to the leadership and can afford to have his own viewpoint. Unlike me he has in the past been more pro- than anti-Cameron, so his article suggesting Brown go to the polls sooner rather than later can be trusted not to be just another fulmination against DC which can be safely ignored. He thus has authority and distance to escape claims of bias and can yet see the greater perspective and possibilities for events as they might unfold.

2. Internal thoughts. THE FOOL: Spontaneity, taking chances - "The Fool is all about that moment when you know you should maybe stop and think a little, perhaps to just check your parachute before leaping off the cliff. But there's something so exciting about taking a real risk; in fact it's thrilling to ignore the warning voices around you and simply go with what you truly want. This Fool captures all the euphoria of beautiful, blind faith - it could refer to a job, a romance, and even the start of a relationship with substance. You know, sometimes being rational does ruin the moment - but it can also save you some major bruises along the way. If you take off, keep flying. If you land, I hope it's not on rocky ground."

Internally, Portillo is risking a lot by talking up the Brown position - he is taking that gamble because he senses change and can admit to mistakes he has made in the past. He takes a chance himself by daring to break party ranks and offer a more independent line, but he has done that to the leadership's cost on more than one occasion, so by refusing to be in one camp or the other he has the credibility to criticise whereas columnists like Simon Heffer have been so resolutely anti-Cameron that their advice can often be disregarded.

3. Roots of the article. STRENGTH: Courage, bravery - "Be persistent and be gentle, and approach the dangers that surround you with clear eyes, an open heart, and without fear. Look right into the heart of that which makes you most afraid, and dissemble your anxiety by true examination. Gentle persuasion will glean great rewards, as will courage - under all circumstances."

Portillo perceives bravery in a Brown gamble to go to the polls earlier than he absolutely has to and therefore win another mandate while he can still portray himself as the best steward of the economy. This would be a courageous move on the Prime Minister's part, and he may still feel he needs the full eighteen months to prove how good he is at helping economic recovery along. Portillo wrote the article on the back of Brown's successes and is trying to goad the Tories into action - and as a result is also brave enough to criticise his own leadership in this way, when the Conservative Party - see passim - is especially paranoid about challenges to its supposed authority through the press.

4. Consequences of the article. 4 OF CUPS: Nervous about change - "You may be feeling a little weary with current events - even though nothing in particular is going wrong. It's like longing for change, even when we know we ought to appreciate the stability and security we previously craved. You may be feeling concerned about where your relationship is going - things have been rolling along for some time, and you may feel that unless things move forward soon, you don't want to stay in this place forever. You may even feel that someone loves you more than you do him or her: look at your role in this situation."

The article has the result of suggesting that during a recession the country would not be prepared to change governments in order to try a different approach rather than blame Labour for existing problems and elect the Conservatives in their stead. The subtext seems to me to be that Portillo has adequately articulated a general fear about change when there is no clear alternative and that could work directly in Brown's favour.

5. Portillo's overall opinion. THE HIGH PRIESTESS: Feminine influence, inner guidance - "You are entering a time when your intuition will be extremely accurate and sensitive. You will also be able to exercise discipline, restraint, and spiritual dignity. You may seem to be a little distant and aloof during this time; however, a more accurate interpretation is that you are listening to your higher self so intently that earthly practicalities are going unheeded at this time. You will do the right thing for all concerned - even if this is indeed the hardest choice to make."

Portillo appears to be speculating that Brown could be using this intuitive sense to guide him on whether or not to call a snap poll, but no clear answer emerges as yet given Portillo does not know exactly what indicators Brown is using to assist him, outwardly and inwardly. Portillo's answer is that Brown is taking a risk based on his senses, both of the objective economic situation and more subjective aspects of his opponents' likely response and movements.

6. Portillo's opinion of the Conservatives. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE: Chance, action - "The one thing we can all be certain of is Change. This card indicates that influences of fate and karma are working in your life at the moment - and resisting that change will hurt. Yet you do not have to give in to fate - you simply need to recognise that change is possible in every small decision we make, in the attitude in which we face our tests in this life. You may be having a marvellous time, or one of the saddest times: this card reminds you that whatever your plans, the wheel of fate keeps turning, that divine forces are always at work, and that change is inevitable. Best to welcome it, as well as the liberation it can represent."

Portillo believes that the Tories need control over their own destiny and to assist Fate rather than allowing it to give them power on a plate. He believes recent events have made them more vulnerable to external conditions rather than allowing them to gain extra momentum, and the Wheel of Fortune may spin further in Labour's direction, enough to provide Brown with an excuse to hold an election at the high water mark of his popularity. The Tories are now required to regain control of themselves rather than trying to surf the subsiding wave of dissatisfaction with Labour into office.

7. Portillo's opinion of Labour. THE EMPEROR: Masculine influence, power - "A strong influence, masculine in feel, is approaching. This will be a time when traditional concerns come to the forefront. Questions of control and ownership may arise in a close and loving relationship."

Brown is in control of events and can steer them back in his favour much better than he could some months ago. Rather than being at the mercy of fate he now controls the elements and is seen to be in command of economy, government and party. This shows Portillo believes Brown remains able to call the shots in any election campaign, and can reasonably expect to continue in office after one.

8. Positives in the Conservative approach. ACE OF CUPS: New love energy - "This card indicates a great surge in energy related to emotions - and beginnings. So it's likely that you've encountered someone or something that has reawakened or reenergised you. There's a sense of fresh starts, new beginnings, overwhelming ambitions, and high hopes regarding a project. This can also indicate a huge rush to have children and get pregnant, and your sex drive may just be going through the roof. It's a hopeful card, but its passionate rush needs to be tempered with a plan for the future. Harness this tremendous energy and watch the changes come - you''ll be amazed - but do use discipline to direct the energy. It's not about holding back; it's about heading in the direction of your dreams."

The Tories have the right energy and determination to win this next election, and it is implied in this card that they have been in receipt of luck and goodwill as well as motivation. They are supposedly (still) basking in the goodwill of the electorate despite the Brown bounce. As recipients, they are passive rather than active, but at least they are still getting this good response from polls and surveys despite being reluctant to channel the "sex drive" into coherent output.

9. Negatives in the Conservative approach. 5 OF PENTACLES: Budget lessons - "There is a great deal you feel you need to worry about right now - money is one of your greatest issues, and you feel stretched. You fret that you may be edging closer to financial ruin with every moment. Solution? The first thing to remember is that your greatest enemy and your staunchest ally is the power of your imagination. Avoid imagining the worst, and little by little this time will pass. You are going to be okay, and you need to believe this - the Universe wants you to understand that you will be taken care of. Pay what you can of each bill. Face your problems with pragmatic courage, and they will dissipate. You are save. This time will pass."

The Tories do, however, have to learn to manage their material and potential executive power more effectively as they are still not actively producing economic methodology to match Brown's ideas, nor is this filtering through decisively to an increasingly insecure public (my parents have gone back to Labour, largely because of the Tories' proposal to scrap Crossrail and the promise of large-scale capital projects hopefully bailing out Taylor Wimpey, of which my father is a operational director; to me this is the first sign of problems for the Tories as if Cameron can't entice them over he is not likely to win an election). They will have to demonstrate that they have the capability to command and exercise power as well as just receive "love energy" from the electorate, which in itself is beginning to fade - if positive, active Conservative support was ever very significant in the first place.

10. Positives in the Labour approach. 6 OF WANDS: Wisdom of experience - "You've worked hard, haven't you, and isn't it great to feel like you've really learned something precious along the way? You're truly at a powerful stage now - though you are are not wildly wealthy or running the nation [well, not for most querents but...this one?], what you now know can never be taken away from you - you've got a gold-mine right between your ears and beating in every drop of your blood. Experience and energy and creativity - that's a great combination. Invest them wisely."

Brown knows and understands government and how to create the conditions for effective success. Since this is Wands rather than Pentacles, the success is little-by-little rather than completely solid, but over time if cultivated could still improve Labour's prospects for a snap poll next summer.

11. Negatives in the Labour approach. 5 OF SWORDS: Challenges, problems - "While everything looks bleak at the moment, remember that everybody has times like this. So now it's your turn - well, welcome to the learning curve, my friend. This is actually quite inspiring - this is when you can start to take real control of your life. It's all too easy to feel and be marvellous when things are going well - but it's these tougher times that make you strong. Meditate, keep calm, and take what action you can - and bash a pillow, not other people, when you feel furious. Things are going to change - you can bet on it. The question is, will you leave this time a better person? Now that's one question that you, and only you, can determine the answer to. In other words, it's your life - if you don't like it, work on changing it. If you can't change it, work on changing how you feel about it."

Brown still faces an uphill battle to win a poll outright, and thus I suspect that he will be considering the option of giving himself more time to prove his results rather than attempt to go to the country on a job not yet completed. The intensification of this card presages future difficulties, but since the Tories have issues - both external and internal - of their own - it is not so difficult for the "wisdom of experience" to minimise any challenges ahead.

12. Overall summary for the Conservatives. JUDGEMENT: putting the past to rest - "The ghosts of the past can haunt you under the influence of this card - but welcome them, for they still have something to teach you. Anything you may have fled from, people you may have unresolved issues with, memories of mistakes you wish you hadn't made may well be coming up. You will accidentally bump into people you haven't seen for 20 years, dream of your ancestors, and think often of old times. The lesson here is that life is a circle, and the wheel is turning - to move on, you need to take stock and reach a new level of understanding about your own actions, those of others, and reach an emotional level of forgiveness that may challenge you. However you must go through this test. It is time to understand, grow wiser, and forgive others and yourself - because then you can heal. Through this flurry of strange events, you will be stronger, you will move on, and you will continue to grow."

Portillo suggests the Tories may face a set of internal challenges before they can proceed because of the trend reversing so disarmingly over the last month and the need to build on current proposals - to find a "plan B" before it is too late. They need to articulate existing commitments successfully rather than just relying on social networking to win them the election. This is an uphill card, a strong indication of the need for a showdown before they can go forward; even a return to previous policies or people before people will once again take them more seriously than at present.

13. Overall summary for Labour. JUSTICE: Honourable choices - "You may be in a situation where you need to assess how much of the truth is being told to you at present: this card reminds you to weigh the situation cautiously and honorably, without excessive emotion, before reaching any kind of conclusion. Perhaps legal matters are entering your life; maybe you are being seen as harsh and impersonal by loved ones. It is important at this time to keep records of your situation, to seek wise counsel, to rely on what actions prove, and what your intuition will tell you. There is a very important decision to be made: it is up to you to decide where to give your trust and confidence."

Brown and Labour will be able to decide on the best action, not necessarily the most expedient, at the time it suits them to go to the polls. The emphasis is on control of passion and rewards for wise decisions, and thus Brown shows the ability to deliberate and come up with a sensible answer rather than being recklessly stupid with economy and/or majority.

14. Summary of the vantage point. 9 OF CUPS: Relationship bliss - "Very, very good times are here - there is a real feeling of making it when this card makes an appearance in a spread. It's a card signifying a kind of overflowing feeling - delight and plenty in equal doses is flushing the doubt right out of your life, and you're now feeling a lot closer to your true self than you were all those times when you wondered whether it was really all worth the effort. Remember everything is a process (think of the Wheel of Fortune card) and that this blissful time will change too - but don't let go of how happy it makes you feel - and keep that close to you to keep you going through the inevitable tougher times that come up in life. Remember to share some of this good stuff around too - and don't forget to spread a little love - everything you send out will increase what comes back to you, ultimately. Stay generous in your heart."

Portillo himself is able to sit back and relax without having to pick sides; he has always used his column in this way since he took over from John Humphries in 2004 in the wake of the Robert Kilroy-Silk affair where BBC presenters were barred from having columns in the press to control partiality or, in Kilroy-Silk's case, anti-Arab rabble-rousing. Although at times he has acted against the Conservative Party's narrow self-interest, he has built a reputation as a respected commentator on the back of this column and is showing a fairness here with usual aplomb. He is happy with this position - he sees two positive alternatives and is not so much of a Tory "fanboi" he cannot criticise his own side. Thus his targets may sometimes be unappreciative but his purpose in writing is sound.