Without further ado (and after a surprisingly dodgy boil-in-the-bag duck a l'orange), here is my forecast for the Pre-Budget Report.

PRE-BUDGET REPORT

S. Situation. KING OF SWORDS.

The key to interpreting what the PBR means will be the outcome of the war of words, rather than the concrete results of policy proposals. The King of Swords displays firm leadership, but a reliance on ideas and thoughts rather than a particular track record of action and results, particularly as they will manifest after any election or over the next five years. The clearest objective and perhaps dilemma for all three parties is how clear their respective positions are rather than their long-term sustainability. The situation demands clarity of presentation and short-term actions in the short-term. It is also a definite party political event despite efforts made by Labour to present the proposals as the actions of a "popular front" and their accusations of partisanship on the part of the Tories and their preferred solutions - if any actually exist.

1. Labour Position. VII WANDS.

Labour are still fighting to stand still and have a lot of expectations riding on the result of the PBR to make a successful case for short term tax cuts - and now waste cuttings - in order to stimulate the flagging economy. They hope that this report will enable the upward trend in the polls to continue unabated, turning the Brown Bounce into the Brown Surge. They hope to reassert political hegemony (my mother reckons they already are and that the Tories have returned to the position of underdog) that was  believed irrevocably lost only three months ago. Brown knows he is still staving off rebellion in the ranks and fighting an uphill battle in the press, but he is also genuinely beginning to turn the tide conclusively in his favour - barring any surprises from the Tories - and relishes the challenge as always.

2. Conservative Position. X CUPS.

The Tories seem this week to have re-established their ideological unity and purity in the eyes of some of their right-wing supporters. This card represents perfection of a sort, though in politics the Cups represents idealism/ideology and emotive language rather than any underlying solidity like the Pentacles do. In this case Cameron and Osborne also have a lot riding on the outcome of the PBR. They need to assert their position on two fronts - ideological and substantial - and prove themselves competent at running an economy rather than just apportioning blame for the recent failings. This card suggests they feel they are well-equipped but may still have to find more solid ground to fight on after the PBR has been and gone.

3. Liberal Democrat Position. II SWORDS.

The Liberal Democrats are not so much sitting this one out politically but have the balance of power seemingly in their hands in the event of a hung parliament, as many people are fond of predicting round about this time in the electoral cycle.* Vince Cable has made a name for himself as a competent and largely prescient financial thinker and the Liberal Democrats have swung to the right over the course of Menzies Campbell and Nick Clegg's successive leaderships, partly meaning that the centre-left vote may have returned to Labour, partly suggesting the party has sussed that any shift now will be towards the right and the LibDems can reposition themselves, and partly that the party has always had a fairly conservative membership base even during the significantly left-wing leaderships of Ashdown and Kennedy who famously found "common cause" with Labour. Therefore the LibDems try to have their cake and eat it. What's new? 

*(In actual fact I believe that the way elections are fought - on a narrow, marginal battleground - means any government either has a slim majority or the Opposition takes enough seats to get a working majority, rather than it being a half-way house. On a 6% swing last time round, the Tories won back a number of marginal seats. On another 6% swing, enough seats would then fall to give them a small majority, more than over the first 6%. The similarity of the marginal seats in general means either the government holds them all or the Opposition wins them all. Therefore the occurrence of hung parliaments, while not unknown (1950 and February 1974 spring to mind) are not a common occurrence, unlike in the coalition-based systems on the European continent.)

4. Labour: Internal Discussions. THE EMPRESS

Internally Labour have a balance and a fertility of ideas to deal with this crisis, though they may as a result become weighed down by things going wrong and again start to panic or worse, become complacent that Brown's current status as an asset rather than a liability may continue despite the recession biting hard. Their response to the Tory volte-face performed by Cameron was actually unexpected - less along the blaring Blairite 14billionextraforschoolsandhospitalsyoucan'ttrustthetoriestokeepspendingCUTSCUTSTORYCUTS lines than a more mature and credible outlook that Cameron would deliberately leave businesses and the unemployed floundering while he snips away at budgets so much that essential services are axed - without regard for the special circumstances dictated by a recession. This shows more depth and more confidence in their own position, a firmer base in effect than previously believed.

5. The Conservatives: Internal Discussions. JUSTICE

The Conservatives have made up their minds and put a (temporary?) end to internal discussions by Cameron's essential capitulation to hard-line elements in his party. Regardless of whether it was right or not to do so, he has ripped up 2008, 2007, and 2006 and returned to 2005. This decision may be a good short term tool to shore up haemmorhaging support; it represents somewhat of an admission that the party needs some difference to Labour in order to provide a genuine choice after any election. I personally believe if they can get this right then they deserve to win, because having seen what extreme tax-and-spend led to in Poland during the SLD government of 1997-2005 - 18% unemployment, a bankrupt state, a large grey economy and, on accession to the EU, a brain-drain of lobotomy proportions - I came back to this country in 2003 - five years ago this week - a committed Tory. Justice in the tarot is viewed as a mundane version of Judgement, which I equate with the idea of electoral success of 1997-style proportions. So if the Tories have got this right, it might not be too late for Vulpes Vulpes.

If, however, they have got it wrong...

6. Liberal Democrats: Internal DIscussions. X SWORDS

The Liberal Democrats accept that their high water mark has passed and that they may be finished as an electoral force which could keep the Tories out and Labour in, as they did in 2005. The return to a polarised two-party situation under the Brown-Cameron "axis of weasel" (thank you, Owlperson!) may have impressed upon the LibDems that they have begun to decline again to a pre-1997 role as the fringe party that will never see Opposition, let alone power.

7. Reality of the Situation. III SWORDS

The situation may be that nothing much can clearly be done to arrest the onset of recession and that even the moderate tax cuts proposed will be ineffective in the medium term. Since however the situation depends on presentation and action in the short term - as in the King of Swords - it may not be felt for a while, enabling Brown to cut and run at a time of his own choosing, all other things being equal and the Tories maintaining their current personnel. Pain is inevitable, but the pain of the Three of Swords is mercifully short and eminently curable - a quick trip to drive the porcelain bus or a 24-hour virus rather than a slow, painful cancer.

8. How the Press Interprets the PBR. II PENTACLES

The press presents the changes or movements in the PBR as necessary adjustments rather than radical departures from previous policies or the precious fiscal prudency once beloved of Gordon Brown. In this situation presentation of the reality of the Three of Swords is key - the difficulties and pain are turned into slow progress and relief by words and pictures. It is difficult to say that the government has not responded in a measured or balanced way, rather than coming clean and admitting things are as gloomy as 7 suggests.

9. Outcome for Labour. KNIGHT OF PENTACLES

The government is being profligate but can get away with this because it is seen to act. The actions are forced by circumstances and may later be paid for by higher taxation, but in politics, actions tend to speak louder than words and buy off criticism long enough to come up with something better later on. Although the Knights tend to act first and think later, the solidity of the response - Pentacles again - will for the time being trump those who can only propose ideas and not take action.

10. Outcome for the Conservatives. IV SWORDS

The Tories are put into cold storage here - because of their lack of ability to act and their recent change in direction from which they are still recovering on Monday. Nothing really can be proposed without short-term paralysis of some sort. Osborne has taken four months away from his strategic role to focus on the economy; however the new ability of the Tories to distance themselves from Labour yet the lack of articulation of alternative direction - as demanded yesterday by The Sun - has forced them into hibernation until they can come up with new policies which fit new circumstances.

11. Media verdict. III PENTACLES

A good start and the beginning of a concrete solution to the difficulties the economy - and Gordon Brown - face. Because the current Labour government can think on its feet much more eloquently than its sclerotic predecessors (1974-79 and 1964-70) it can adapt, dismantle and rebuild in order to keep going, much to the Tories' chagrin but in line with the Conservative ability to rejuvenate themselves before each successive win in the 1980s and 1990s. Since Labour is not as brittle as it once was, it can respond properly to difficulties and fix them in ways that Wilson and Callaghan found ideologically difficult. Thus the media are able to move with them too and adapt and build the new narrative to Labour's tune rather than the Conservatives'.

12. Winners. V PENTACLES

For the moment, the country has to plough on doggedly and bear the icy economic winter ahead of it. There are few, if any winners here in the short term while the government rides out the storm. People for the most part already accept and understand that the government has solutions, even if it is reminded by the Tories that it is the government's own doing (partly true, for the Polish reasons above, and partly untrue, as the whole of the Western world has lived beyond its means for so long the bubble had to be burst everywhere sooner or later). This understanding underlies what for many Tories seems to be a counter-intuitive trend, and may dampen hopes that when the recession begins to bite they will automatically blame Labour rather than turn back to them. Though people still to an extent do blame Glum Gordon for the mess, they are unable to place their trust fully in an alternative and therefore default to the incumbent government.

13. Losers. QUEEN OF CUPS

The losers here are those who insist on trying to remain aloof from the crisis in the hopes of coming in later with a mop and broom to clean up; those who expect the Five of Pentacles to work in their favour but do nothing to earn it; those who extrapolate too much and forget about events; and those who neglect strategy in favour of tactics. At her best, the Queen of Cups is naturally intuitive and acts slowly but deftly to reap the rewards. At her worst she is complacent, dozy, vapid and reliant too much on her own fantasies to operate in the real world. (Louise Bagshawe springs to mind.) The Tories here fit the above description and must at some point realise that the country is theirs only if they earn it. Just calling the government ZaNU LIEBOR and hoping the public come running is not enough.

14. Overall trend. THE FOOL

The government here is providing the keys to a new phase of political development where old certainties are wiped away. It is not a new era as such, where a changing of the guard and a fresh start are forecast, but a changing of the emphasis and a new direction for public opinion as the received wisdom of the last year is dissolved. It is not good or bad - just different.

15. Overall outcome. VII SWORDS

There is a lot of pain to bear but because this card shows mechanisms remain to combat the problems in store, it bodes well for the future. Swords represent ideas and presentation; the main issue here is that realism prevails - people understand things are tight but can take the necessary measures to deal with them, coming out fighting. It is no time for mere blame - as some people assume - but there is a need for adjustment and development of mechanisms which can combat and overcome changed economic circumstances.

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I might not post much more until I get away to Tallinn (I fly out on the 24th but will reach the hotel about midnight so will obviously not be posting anything, and I have no laptop so I will rely mostly on internet cafes to blog while away). Owlperson is doing his talon-tapping act and telling his "little Crow" that the next few days are going to be rather boring to blog anyway, as the big event is Monday. However if anything crosses my screen between now and the 25th I will of course post one or two mini-posts just to keep things ticking over. I will however be writing a little satirical cartoon - Volp loves Vulpi - but that may have to wait till I get back because scanning at internet cafes is usually prohibitively expensive.

See you all later.