That didn't take too long...

I was about to switch off but Daniel Finkelstein's blog entry caught my eye.

I am rather falling between two stools here. Much as I resent DF's characterisation of all people who were against Cameron as "blue bolsheviks" back in March when the Shadow Cabinet seemed to be in a pickle over seemingly contradictory promises (now set to rest by the spending plan volte-face; I just can't seem to get my head round Cam's positions as I could Howard's - it's like the Two Bears - too hard, too soft but never just right, a problem I had with Tony Blair as well), I have to say, he never struck me as one himself. Having lost the skirmish over tax cuts, much to the delight of Conservative Home, his latest blog shows some interesting moves on his part.

He is calling for Brown to go to the country early.

Now, I said to myself once that if Finkelstein - Vulpes Vulpes no. 94 - went anti-Cambo, Cambo was doomed. So this perhaps deserves an impromptu spread (at 12 cards I can hardly call it a quickie), for which I am reading along the same lines as I analysed Davis' machinations this time last week with three sets of four cards looking at Intentions, Reactions and Outcome.

FINKELSTEIN'S INTENTIONS

1. (Towards) Labour. VI SWORDS

Go on, Gordon, push the boat out and do something to offset the Conservatives. Extraordinary that he has turned into a Blue Bolshevik, but this card means the beginning of purposeful action to bring about something tangible, although it is still in the realm of Swords and thus of ideas and opinions and perhaps presentations. Curious that Finkelstein should be the one who suggests this, but his spat with Conservative Home and losing the Conservative debate over tax should be a cause for consternation in all but Gordon's own private office. Although it could be a trap, the Six of Swords underlies genuine action - at some point there must be a decision made to take action - so this feels to me a genuine attempt to promote Labour at Cambo's expense.

2. (Towards) Conservatives. VII CUPS

The Seven of Cups can indicate that someone is labouring (pardon the expression) under an illusion and needs to have this bubble burst. Here Finkelstein might be suggesting that the Conservatives are still not cognisant of the changed realities, and having changed their own reality may have lost his support, which seems to be critical for him as a major contributor to The Times' editorial division, which has been more supportive of Cameron than of any other Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher. He perhaps wants to give the Tories a chance to recognise they have made a mistake, or he believes they are spellbound victims of their own propaganda. Or he could mean both.

3. Real Opinions. IV SWORDS

He is of the opinion that to him, everything is relative. As a journalist, he is able to take a step back from the fray and discuss the whole battlefield rather than being blinded by the smoke and gunpowder of active service. In this he has nothing to lose from Conservative defeat and more to gain by changing allegiance, just like my (alleged) ancestor Sir William Stanley did on Bosworth Field in 1485, another pivotal year in British politics. It matters little to Finkelfox who wins and who loses, because he is a journalist first and a political figure second.

4. Real Options. IX CUPS

This echoes the previous card nicely and presents a positive spin on Finkelstein's new equivocality. In this country, real power is held by the press - witness the rise and fall of Thatcher, Major, Blair, and Brown, and their opposite numbers: it was all driven by an increasingly media orientated society where as one party over-reached itself, it could be replaced. However, Finkelstein may have bucked the trend here - and support for Brown now may be reading the runes, realising that his foxy comrade is pursuing a different agenda than the one he particularly supports, and thus he wants to prod and goad either Brown into activity or Cameron into changing his mind yet again. As I said above - it's all one to Basil Brush's big brother.

REACTIONS

1. Labour. THE MAGICIAN

It may spark new determination and new resourcefulness in a party which has pulled itself back from the brink of devastating civil war and has the nous and inspiration to conceive plans and the ability through government with a working majority to put it into action. Reading this blog may ephemeralise this action - The Magician is not the most grounded or focussed of action cards in the tarot - but it may nevertheless speak volumes about the possibilities inherent in an early election.

2. Conservatives. PAGE OF SWORDS

The Tories react with predictable rapier wit in Fink's direction - though as Page and not King they stab too fast and too angrily to be seen to base their actions in anything concrete. The Page of Swords, reliant on the tool he is only learning to wield, is the master of spin but is devoid of substance. The Tories will no doubt be hurt by this blog. But their reaction only displays this wound, allowing people to scent fear and blood. Fink may be trying to warn them, he may be trying to undermine them - but he goads them into too much reaction and too little consideration of what that betrays.

3. Real Opinions. X CUPS

This blog is as intangible and inconsequential as the other commentaries. However in this card we have the epitome of spin and ideology - and the lasting value of the Tens of any suit suggest to me that where it comes from and where it goes to makes it much more important than, say, my feeble attempt at coherent criticism earlier which is read by few and noted by none. Finkelstein has the power to change minds and provoke reactions - and these reactions can decide the fate of Prime Ministers and Leaders of the Opposition.

4. Real Options. PAGE OF PENTACLES

This may show the seeds of the coming battle, with Brown increasingly gaining control of the all-important narrative. It may prompt the "run on the Tories" that some have seen coming for a while, because Finkelstein is, as I say above, important enough a commentator to act as a weathervane, just as I often see the media acting on the public through the lenses of my own floating-voter parents and their shifting loyalties. If Finkelstein says "jump", Cameron jumps. If Finkelstein were to say go...

OUTCOME

1. Labour. IV CUPS

This card is all about the appearance of hitherto unforeseen solutions or additional factors clarifying a situation. Labour now have something to work on about the likely leaning of The Times at least, since Finkelstein is so important to the editorial and opinion page content. It gives Labour new hope that the press is still to be won over, and although it only represents opinion rather than solid manifestations of such at an election, it at least gives the government something to go on.

2. Conservatives. STRENGTH

Again, control of negative impulses, with the implication that these exist. Finkelstein has lost some value through having lost the battle for control of party ideology on spending policy, and thus the leadership - for now - can treat him as some unimportant gnat ripe for swatting. But this is only one article. What if it were to seriously influence editorial opinion at The Times? Control of negative impulses at some point has to be translated into neutralisation or absorption of these dark forces rather than hanging on for dear life. If this helps inform CCHQ then it may have done the trick, but since the party is forever tilting at media windmills and deriding constructive criticism from the so-called "Labourograph", holding on may not work in the long term.

3. Real Opinions. KING OF PENTACLES

This is the ideal leader, the constructive controller of the narrative and agenda. Able to put policy into action, the King of Pentacles has absorbed advice and learned lessons to make himself stronger and more able to defend his kingdom. Since this does not appear for either Labour or Conservatives, it suggests to me it actually represents Finkelstein himself - it would fit in a society dependent on the media for information and opinion that the most powerful man in Britain is neither Labour nor Tory - only a mere commentator.

4. Real Options. THE FOOL

The Fool represents the beginning after the end - the movement of (in this case) politics into a new narrative and a new agenda. This coincides with the ending of the mid-term and the (perhaps long) run-up to the next election; therefore whoever can take control of their own side can win the election. Old ideas - that the Tories are odds-on favourites to win the next election - may not hold water for much longer, so the sooner each side can develop its own narrative, the sooner we can get through what may be a long and bitterly-fought election campaign that may bear more resemblance to 1979 than 1997.