Parliament of Fowls

That didn't take too long...

I was about to switch off but Daniel Finkelstein's blog entry caught my eye.

I am rather falling between two stools here. Much as I resent DF's characterisation of all people who were against Cameron as "blue bolsheviks" back in March when the Shadow Cabinet seemed to be in a pickle over seemingly contradictory promises (now set to rest by the spending plan volte-face; I just can't seem to get my head round Cam's positions as I could Howard's - it's like the Two Bears - too hard, too soft but never just right, a problem I had with Tony Blair as well), I have to say, he never struck me as one himself. Having lost the skirmish over tax cuts, much to the delight of Conservative Home, his latest blog shows some interesting moves on his part.

He is calling for Brown to go to the country early.

Now, I said to myself once that if Finkelstein - Vulpes Vulpes no. 94 - went anti-Cambo, Cambo was doomed. So this perhaps deserves an impromptu spread (at 12 cards I can hardly call it a quickie), for which I am reading along the same lines as I analysed Davis' machinations this time last week with three sets of four cards looking at Intentions, Reactions and Outcome.

FINKELSTEIN'S INTENTIONS

1. (Towards) Labour. VI SWORDS

Go on, Gordon, push the boat out and do something to offset the Conservatives. Extraordinary that he has turned into a Blue Bolshevik, but this card means the beginning of purposeful action to bring about something tangible, although it is still in the realm of Swords and thus of ideas and opinions and perhaps presentations. Curious that Finkelstein should be the one who suggests this, but his spat with Conservative Home and losing the Conservative debate over tax should be a cause for consternation in all but Gordon's own private office. Although it could be a trap, the Six of Swords underlies genuine action - at some point there must be a decision made to take action - so this feels to me a genuine attempt to promote Labour at Cambo's expense.

2. (Towards) Conservatives. VII CUPS

The Seven of Cups can indicate that someone is labouring (pardon the expression) under an illusion and needs to have this bubble burst. Here Finkelstein might be suggesting that the Conservatives are still not cognisant of the changed realities, and having changed their own reality may have lost his support, which seems to be critical for him as a major contributor to The Times' editorial division, which has been more supportive of Cameron than of any other Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher. He perhaps wants to give the Tories a chance to recognise they have made a mistake, or he believes they are spellbound victims of their own propaganda. Or he could mean both.

3. Real Opinions. IV SWORDS

He is of the opinion that to him, everything is relative. As a journalist, he is able to take a step back from the fray and discuss the whole battlefield rather than being blinded by the smoke and gunpowder of active service. In this he has nothing to lose from Conservative defeat and more to gain by changing allegiance, just like my (alleged) ancestor Sir William Stanley did on Bosworth Field in 1485, another pivotal year in British politics. It matters little to Finkelfox who wins and who loses, because he is a journalist first and a political figure second.

4. Real Options. IX CUPS

This echoes the previous card nicely and presents a positive spin on Finkelstein's new equivocality. In this country, real power is held by the press - witness the rise and fall of Thatcher, Major, Blair, and Brown, and their opposite numbers: it was all driven by an increasingly media orientated society where as one party over-reached itself, it could be replaced. However, Finkelstein may have bucked the trend here - and support for Brown now may be reading the runes, realising that his foxy comrade is pursuing a different agenda than the one he particularly supports, and thus he wants to prod and goad either Brown into activity or Cameron into changing his mind yet again. As I said above - it's all one to Basil Brush's big brother.

REACTIONS

1. Labour. THE MAGICIAN

It may spark new determination and new resourcefulness in a party which has pulled itself back from the brink of devastating civil war and has the nous and inspiration to conceive plans and the ability through government with a working majority to put it into action. Reading this blog may ephemeralise this action - The Magician is not the most grounded or focussed of action cards in the tarot - but it may nevertheless speak volumes about the possibilities inherent in an early election.

2. Conservatives. PAGE OF SWORDS

The Tories react with predictable rapier wit in Fink's direction - though as Page and not King they stab too fast and too angrily to be seen to base their actions in anything concrete. The Page of Swords, reliant on the tool he is only learning to wield, is the master of spin but is devoid of substance. The Tories will no doubt be hurt by this blog. But their reaction only displays this wound, allowing people to scent fear and blood. Fink may be trying to warn them, he may be trying to undermine them - but he goads them into too much reaction and too little consideration of what that betrays.

3. Real Opinions. X CUPS

This blog is as intangible and inconsequential as the other commentaries. However in this card we have the epitome of spin and ideology - and the lasting value of the Tens of any suit suggest to me that where it comes from and where it goes to makes it much more important than, say, my feeble attempt at coherent criticism earlier which is read by few and noted by none. Finkelstein has the power to change minds and provoke reactions - and these reactions can decide the fate of Prime Ministers and Leaders of the Opposition.

4. Real Options. PAGE OF PENTACLES

This may show the seeds of the coming battle, with Brown increasingly gaining control of the all-important narrative. It may prompt the "run on the Tories" that some have seen coming for a while, because Finkelstein is, as I say above, important enough a commentator to act as a weathervane, just as I often see the media acting on the public through the lenses of my own floating-voter parents and their shifting loyalties. If Finkelstein says "jump", Cameron jumps. If Finkelstein were to say go...

OUTCOME

1. Labour. IV CUPS

This card is all about the appearance of hitherto unforeseen solutions or additional factors clarifying a situation. Labour now have something to work on about the likely leaning of The Times at least, since Finkelstein is so important to the editorial and opinion page content. It gives Labour new hope that the press is still to be won over, and although it only represents opinion rather than solid manifestations of such at an election, it at least gives the government something to go on.

2. Conservatives. STRENGTH

Again, control of negative impulses, with the implication that these exist. Finkelstein has lost some value through having lost the battle for control of party ideology on spending policy, and thus the leadership - for now - can treat him as some unimportant gnat ripe for swatting. But this is only one article. What if it were to seriously influence editorial opinion at The Times? Control of negative impulses at some point has to be translated into neutralisation or absorption of these dark forces rather than hanging on for dear life. If this helps inform CCHQ then it may have done the trick, but since the party is forever tilting at media windmills and deriding constructive criticism from the so-called "Labourograph", holding on may not work in the long term.

3. Real Opinions. KING OF PENTACLES

This is the ideal leader, the constructive controller of the narrative and agenda. Able to put policy into action, the King of Pentacles has absorbed advice and learned lessons to make himself stronger and more able to defend his kingdom. Since this does not appear for either Labour or Conservatives, it suggests to me it actually represents Finkelstein himself - it would fit in a society dependent on the media for information and opinion that the most powerful man in Britain is neither Labour nor Tory - only a mere commentator.

4. Real Options. THE FOOL

The Fool represents the beginning after the end - the movement of (in this case) politics into a new narrative and a new agenda. This coincides with the ending of the mid-term and the (perhaps long) run-up to the next election; therefore whoever can take control of their own side can win the election. Old ideas - that the Tories are odds-on favourites to win the next election - may not hold water for much longer, so the sooner each side can develop its own narrative, the sooner we can get through what may be a long and bitterly-fought election campaign that may bear more resemblance to 1979 than 1997.

Without further ado (and after a surprisingly dodgy boil-in-the-bag duck a l'orange), here is my forecast for the Pre-Budget Report.

PRE-BUDGET REPORT

S. Situation. KING OF SWORDS.

The key to interpreting what the PBR means will be the outcome of the war of words, rather than the concrete results of policy proposals. The King of Swords displays firm leadership, but a reliance on ideas and thoughts rather than a particular track record of action and results, particularly as they will manifest after any election or over the next five years. The clearest objective and perhaps dilemma for all three parties is how clear their respective positions are rather than their long-term sustainability. The situation demands clarity of presentation and short-term actions in the short-term. It is also a definite party political event despite efforts made by Labour to present the proposals as the actions of a "popular front" and their accusations of partisanship on the part of the Tories and their preferred solutions - if any actually exist.

1. Labour Position. VII WANDS.

Labour are still fighting to stand still and have a lot of expectations riding on the result of the PBR to make a successful case for short term tax cuts - and now waste cuttings - in order to stimulate the flagging economy. They hope that this report will enable the upward trend in the polls to continue unabated, turning the Brown Bounce into the Brown Surge. They hope to reassert political hegemony (my mother reckons they already are and that the Tories have returned to the position of underdog) that was  believed irrevocably lost only three months ago. Brown knows he is still staving off rebellion in the ranks and fighting an uphill battle in the press, but he is also genuinely beginning to turn the tide conclusively in his favour - barring any surprises from the Tories - and relishes the challenge as always.

2. Conservative Position. X CUPS.

The Tories seem this week to have re-established their ideological unity and purity in the eyes of some of their right-wing supporters. This card represents perfection of a sort, though in politics the Cups represents idealism/ideology and emotive language rather than any underlying solidity like the Pentacles do. In this case Cameron and Osborne also have a lot riding on the outcome of the PBR. They need to assert their position on two fronts - ideological and substantial - and prove themselves competent at running an economy rather than just apportioning blame for the recent failings. This card suggests they feel they are well-equipped but may still have to find more solid ground to fight on after the PBR has been and gone.

3. Liberal Democrat Position. II SWORDS.

The Liberal Democrats are not so much sitting this one out politically but have the balance of power seemingly in their hands in the event of a hung parliament, as many people are fond of predicting round about this time in the electoral cycle.* Vince Cable has made a name for himself as a competent and largely prescient financial thinker and the Liberal Democrats have swung to the right over the course of Menzies Campbell and Nick Clegg's successive leaderships, partly meaning that the centre-left vote may have returned to Labour, partly suggesting the party has sussed that any shift now will be towards the right and the LibDems can reposition themselves, and partly that the party has always had a fairly conservative membership base even during the significantly left-wing leaderships of Ashdown and Kennedy who famously found "common cause" with Labour. Therefore the LibDems try to have their cake and eat it. What's new? 

*(In actual fact I believe that the way elections are fought - on a narrow, marginal battleground - means any government either has a slim majority or the Opposition takes enough seats to get a working majority, rather than it being a half-way house. On a 6% swing last time round, the Tories won back a number of marginal seats. On another 6% swing, enough seats would then fall to give them a small majority, more than over the first 6%. The similarity of the marginal seats in general means either the government holds them all or the Opposition wins them all. Therefore the occurrence of hung parliaments, while not unknown (1950 and February 1974 spring to mind) are not a common occurrence, unlike in the coalition-based systems on the European continent.)

4. Labour: Internal Discussions. THE EMPRESS

Internally Labour have a balance and a fertility of ideas to deal with this crisis, though they may as a result become weighed down by things going wrong and again start to panic or worse, become complacent that Brown's current status as an asset rather than a liability may continue despite the recession biting hard. Their response to the Tory volte-face performed by Cameron was actually unexpected - less along the blaring Blairite 14billionextraforschoolsandhospitalsyoucan'ttrustthetoriestokeepspendingCUTSCUTSTORYCUTS lines than a more mature and credible outlook that Cameron would deliberately leave businesses and the unemployed floundering while he snips away at budgets so much that essential services are axed - without regard for the special circumstances dictated by a recession. This shows more depth and more confidence in their own position, a firmer base in effect than previously believed.

5. The Conservatives: Internal Discussions. JUSTICE

The Conservatives have made up their minds and put a (temporary?) end to internal discussions by Cameron's essential capitulation to hard-line elements in his party. Regardless of whether it was right or not to do so, he has ripped up 2008, 2007, and 2006 and returned to 2005. This decision may be a good short term tool to shore up haemmorhaging support; it represents somewhat of an admission that the party needs some difference to Labour in order to provide a genuine choice after any election. I personally believe if they can get this right then they deserve to win, because having seen what extreme tax-and-spend led to in Poland during the SLD government of 1997-2005 - 18% unemployment, a bankrupt state, a large grey economy and, on accession to the EU, a brain-drain of lobotomy proportions - I came back to this country in 2003 - five years ago this week - a committed Tory. Justice in the tarot is viewed as a mundane version of Judgement, which I equate with the idea of electoral success of 1997-style proportions. So if the Tories have got this right, it might not be too late for Vulpes Vulpes.

If, however, they have got it wrong...

6. Liberal Democrats: Internal DIscussions. X SWORDS

The Liberal Democrats accept that their high water mark has passed and that they may be finished as an electoral force which could keep the Tories out and Labour in, as they did in 2005. The return to a polarised two-party situation under the Brown-Cameron "axis of weasel" (thank you, Owlperson!) may have impressed upon the LibDems that they have begun to decline again to a pre-1997 role as the fringe party that will never see Opposition, let alone power.

7. Reality of the Situation. III SWORDS

The situation may be that nothing much can clearly be done to arrest the onset of recession and that even the moderate tax cuts proposed will be ineffective in the medium term. Since however the situation depends on presentation and action in the short term - as in the King of Swords - it may not be felt for a while, enabling Brown to cut and run at a time of his own choosing, all other things being equal and the Tories maintaining their current personnel. Pain is inevitable, but the pain of the Three of Swords is mercifully short and eminently curable - a quick trip to drive the porcelain bus or a 24-hour virus rather than a slow, painful cancer.

8. How the Press Interprets the PBR. II PENTACLES

The press presents the changes or movements in the PBR as necessary adjustments rather than radical departures from previous policies or the precious fiscal prudency once beloved of Gordon Brown. In this situation presentation of the reality of the Three of Swords is key - the difficulties and pain are turned into slow progress and relief by words and pictures. It is difficult to say that the government has not responded in a measured or balanced way, rather than coming clean and admitting things are as gloomy as 7 suggests.

9. Outcome for Labour. KNIGHT OF PENTACLES

The government is being profligate but can get away with this because it is seen to act. The actions are forced by circumstances and may later be paid for by higher taxation, but in politics, actions tend to speak louder than words and buy off criticism long enough to come up with something better later on. Although the Knights tend to act first and think later, the solidity of the response - Pentacles again - will for the time being trump those who can only propose ideas and not take action.

10. Outcome for the Conservatives. IV SWORDS

The Tories are put into cold storage here - because of their lack of ability to act and their recent change in direction from which they are still recovering on Monday. Nothing really can be proposed without short-term paralysis of some sort. Osborne has taken four months away from his strategic role to focus on the economy; however the new ability of the Tories to distance themselves from Labour yet the lack of articulation of alternative direction - as demanded yesterday by The Sun - has forced them into hibernation until they can come up with new policies which fit new circumstances.

11. Media verdict. III PENTACLES

A good start and the beginning of a concrete solution to the difficulties the economy - and Gordon Brown - face. Because the current Labour government can think on its feet much more eloquently than its sclerotic predecessors (1974-79 and 1964-70) it can adapt, dismantle and rebuild in order to keep going, much to the Tories' chagrin but in line with the Conservative ability to rejuvenate themselves before each successive win in the 1980s and 1990s. Since Labour is not as brittle as it once was, it can respond properly to difficulties and fix them in ways that Wilson and Callaghan found ideologically difficult. Thus the media are able to move with them too and adapt and build the new narrative to Labour's tune rather than the Conservatives'.

12. Winners. V PENTACLES

For the moment, the country has to plough on doggedly and bear the icy economic winter ahead of it. There are few, if any winners here in the short term while the government rides out the storm. People for the most part already accept and understand that the government has solutions, even if it is reminded by the Tories that it is the government's own doing (partly true, for the Polish reasons above, and partly untrue, as the whole of the Western world has lived beyond its means for so long the bubble had to be burst everywhere sooner or later). This understanding underlies what for many Tories seems to be a counter-intuitive trend, and may dampen hopes that when the recession begins to bite they will automatically blame Labour rather than turn back to them. Though people still to an extent do blame Glum Gordon for the mess, they are unable to place their trust fully in an alternative and therefore default to the incumbent government.

13. Losers. QUEEN OF CUPS

The losers here are those who insist on trying to remain aloof from the crisis in the hopes of coming in later with a mop and broom to clean up; those who expect the Five of Pentacles to work in their favour but do nothing to earn it; those who extrapolate too much and forget about events; and those who neglect strategy in favour of tactics. At her best, the Queen of Cups is naturally intuitive and acts slowly but deftly to reap the rewards. At her worst she is complacent, dozy, vapid and reliant too much on her own fantasies to operate in the real world. (Louise Bagshawe springs to mind.) The Tories here fit the above description and must at some point realise that the country is theirs only if they earn it. Just calling the government ZaNU LIEBOR and hoping the public come running is not enough.

14. Overall trend. THE FOOL

The government here is providing the keys to a new phase of political development where old certainties are wiped away. It is not a new era as such, where a changing of the guard and a fresh start are forecast, but a changing of the emphasis and a new direction for public opinion as the received wisdom of the last year is dissolved. It is not good or bad - just different.

15. Overall outcome. VII SWORDS

There is a lot of pain to bear but because this card shows mechanisms remain to combat the problems in store, it bodes well for the future. Swords represent ideas and presentation; the main issue here is that realism prevails - people understand things are tight but can take the necessary measures to deal with them, coming out fighting. It is no time for mere blame - as some people assume - but there is a need for adjustment and development of mechanisms which can combat and overcome changed economic circumstances.

----

I might not post much more until I get away to Tallinn (I fly out on the 24th but will reach the hotel about midnight so will obviously not be posting anything, and I have no laptop so I will rely mostly on internet cafes to blog while away). Owlperson is doing his talon-tapping act and telling his "little Crow" that the next few days are going to be rather boring to blog anyway, as the big event is Monday. However if anything crosses my screen between now and the 25th I will of course post one or two mini-posts just to keep things ticking over. I will however be writing a little satirical cartoon - Volp loves Vulpi - but that may have to wait till I get back because scanning at internet cafes is usually prohibitively expensive.

See you all later.

Apologies for not posting yesterday - I'm in going-away mode, which means chasing round the house looking for travel adaptors, mini-alarm-clocks, a purse which is not the size of Hamburg and can be easily concealed about one's person (and in one's hand luggage going through security at Gatwick, since Tony Blair allegedly found a nest of terrorists about to blow up half the US and UK with a bottle of Evian and a tube of toothpaste) and thinking which shoes to wear that won't take years to undo before they go on the security conveyer belt and the whole of Surrey passes out from the smell of my feet. Owlperson must be right about the fact I was a German soldier in my last life, I don't set off on holiday with a book, a towel and a bikini, I end up tramping round Eastern Europe as if I was on the way to raise the red flag over Berlin using a paintbox, two boxes of WHSmith's pencils and a caseload of Soviet sex manuals in an obscure Moratovian dialect. (I have an Estonian copy of The Non-Joy of Seks in which the only recognisable word is "pederast" and the exhortation to "Just Say No, Comrade - V I Lenin" is reprinted at the top of  each chapter just like Pravda always used to carry the strapline "Workers of the World, Unite!" and the Torygraph carries the current slogan: "Only 18 months to a Conservative government, chaps!").

However, my addiction to Soviet Balticana can wait while I explain my feelings about the current Conservative direction and the prospects for the PBR. My feeling is that in turning away from Labour's spending plans Cameron has earned my grudging praise - however, I don't believe it is wholly a good idea even if it is more necessary than it was in 2005.

My regard for Michael Howard is well known but it does not mean I am absolutely uncritical of the platform proposed in 2005. First of all, Howard's Shadow Cabinet was rubbish and consists of mostly the same flotsam that make up Cameron's. Personnel changes made by Cameron have largely ignored The Times' criticism of Howard at conference that he would have made a good presidential candidate but in the British parliamentary system he had to buy off too many chancers like Letwin to have a credible team. Who he would have chosen instead is difficult to say, because of the 1997 holocaust wiping out the key 50-60 year old generation which is currently lacking in the Tory Party at the moment, but Letwin being brought back to help Osborne out in my opinion compounds the problem - an over-reliance on academics and part-time bankers - rather than ameliorates it.

Letwin may be behind the current spending-plan volte-face; the Tories may well be damned if they do and damned if they don't at this point but Howard always looked rather stupid touring round a maze of cardboard bureaucrats with Let-lose because it always demeaned the Tories in my opinion that they decided programmes like Sure Start, the centralised NHS computer system and other initiatives which, if implemented properly, could assist the civil service to do their jobs properly and give a "hand-up, not a hand-out" to the less fortunate in society. The Tories are handicapped rather than enhanced by a petty and mean-spirited outlook on public service and public policy. The reason I liked the 2005 manifesto was because it was based around the central premise that the Tories should appeal to ordinary people rather than the City, the shires and squires, and business. Howard appeared to me to be proposing a Christian Democrat version of Tory values, and as a result inspired more personal loyalty on the ground in 2005 than I believe Cameron does now.

I think now it is more "politically correct" - for the want of a better term - to be anti-Labour, and hence the Tories for a while gained a lot of disgruntled support released from the shy Tory syndrome, but for those who believe the polls always swing in the Conservatives' favour during an election, I can only refer them to an article by William Rees-Mogg after the Bournemouth conference in 2004 that confidently asserted that, because the polls had usually been 10% out in Labour's favour at the previous two elections (comparing polling data to actual votes cast) then since the Tories and Labour were level-pegging after the 2004 conference this indicated a Howard victory of considerable proportions. In the event, the polls turned out to be reasonably accurate. Now I suspect there is a "shy Labour" factor built in which is beginning to come out of its shell, thereby Tory leads of 28% were based on the fact that for a year or so admitting to liking Gordon Brown was akin to admitting that they liked being boiled alive. The current readjustment may still leave Labour shy of outright victory, but relying on personalised campaigning, the slogan "We told you so" and "It's their fault" may not win them the election when confronted with typical Labour policy fare - stodgy, calorific, horrifically bad for you but rather filling and hearty nonetheless.

I am glad that the Tories now have a different slogan to fight on than "more of the same whoever you elect". However it may be a tactical gain for a strategic loss. Letting go of Labour's spending plans may pacify people now, but it will mean a winter of number-crunching while they figure out what they now want to plan to spend if they win. How long it takes depends on George and Oliver coming up with something that pinpoints proper waste - not just policies or organisations they take ideological exception to, and if they even think about closing down NHS Direct I'm off - and solutions of their own. Given that they have had three years for this, I suspect George and Oliver will emerge in 2011 with blueprints for government only to learn that Generalissimo Brown and his cabinet are now sitting on an increased majority and David Cameron is remembered only for his stolen bike and a faint whiff of something stronger than tobacco floating about the Leader of the Opposition's office.

My hope is that the Conservative Party now take the opportunity to establish some sort of dynamic message which, while not giving too much detail away, is credible enough to appeal to people who at the last election were - on discovering I was a Tory activist - saying "Michael Howard - pretty forward guy!" and words to that effect (and from another former member of the Labour Party as well). My hope is Cameron will survive the winter. But if he fails to make an impact next week at the PBR, he should stand aside for the time being (with perhaps even an option on inheriting the throne later on once traction in government has been established) and allow someone with more robust substance to carry the party on towards the election victory that should rightly be ours. I'm not naive enough to want him to succeed by words alone - I've been in both parties, in fact I've been a supporter of all three at various points in time - and I feel therefore semi-detached from ideological persuasions. I'm more of a Christian Democrat than a convinced Tory, judging by some of the opinions on Conservative Home which proves to me that the Cameron modernisation was more of a Changing Rooms style makeover, a Potemkin village for those who understand the term, than anything more substantial. Louise Bagshawe profoundly demonstrates that the party has not moved on from the troglodyte days of the 1950s thin-lipped curtain-twitcher brigade, and like IDS is prepared to use a profound human tragedy to push a repressive and prudish social agenda light-years from the "metrosexual" image the Tories have tried hard to cultivate. Fiscal conservatism can march hand in hand with progressive social liberalism, Louise. Attitudes like that you denounce other older people for yet you continue to espouse them yourself. Why?

 I want a Tory government, I sincerely do. Otherwise I wouldn't care about the direction of the party and I certainly wouldn't post ad nauseam on Conservative Home. But I can't bring myself to support someone who has ignored countless opportunities to lay Labour to waste where Howard - had he not stood down in 2005 before the rest of the year - July 7 and the defeat over control orders and Blair's shakiness in office proved him to lack the sort of foresight the Tories still desperately need - would have seized the opportunity and initiative not only on spin but on crunchy alternatives. I cannot help thinking that he jumped before he was pushed and wanted to carry on, both in 2005 and when he stood down in 2006 (there has been a lot of talk on ConHome of getting the next election over with so that the "bedblockers" with all the experience have been shoved out and Vulpes Vulpes' friends predominate; I also have corresponded with Mr Howard on several occasions and his letters are extremely illuminating on this particular point); and I cannot help thinking that the Heir To Blair has ignored some of his Labour mentor's most lasting strategies in favour of tactics which worked for Blair because of underlying substance rather than despite the lack of it.

You've got until I come back from holiday, David, to impress me. I'll be keeping one eye on Britain in the mean time, but I mean to enjoy myself and change the record on this for a bit. Good luck - you'll need it.