Another day, another poll.
3%. Lead. Tories. The sound of breaking crockery on a tiled kitchen floor springs to mind.
This one is from MORI and as such is a poll without a home; although it has been picked up by the Independent it isn't their official poll which normally comes out in the last week of the month. Mike Smithson on politicalbetting.com (another site dedicated to political predictions that also spends most of its time talking about Cameron, in very favourable terms; proof if ever was needed politics can never really produce objective analysis unless the site is, like Politics Home, filled with more tracker widgets than words) explains:
I’ve been in contact with MORI who tell me that when they saw the initial figures they did some additional checks. The past vote figures are basically identical to last month’s (ie. MORI haven’t inadvertently over-sampled Labour supporters) and they also had a look at newspaper weights, and they had no effect (readership figures are normal). These tests and a few more satisfied them that the data is accurate.
Coupled with issues regarding tax cuts (the Tories have now abandoned Labour's spending plans, but Nick Robinson points out that they haven't actually said anything about what services...sorry, waste, they would cut), things aren't looking good for Vulpes Vulpes. Simon Carr has already read him the riot act (see my post last night), and Carr is one of the more perceptive sketchwriters out there, who smelt blood just before IDS was deposed. Although the Independent is also saying there is now clear blue water between the parties, I can't help remembering a quote on Drop the Dead Donkey that "there are also lots of brown things floating in it".
It's now getting rather exciting for all those Swords cards, Towers, Devils and Deaths that have been coming up for Vulpes Vulpes. Although I am away for the PBR, I will read for it tomorrow (to try and predict what will happen rather than just interpret the results after the event), to see what impact it will have on the personalities involved.
I will be reading for this poll now, or when I have finished cooking tonight's spag bol...
IPSOS MORI POLL - CONSERVATIVE LEAD of 3%
S. Situation. X PENTACLES.
The Ten signifies the culmination of material and substantial trends and therefore in politics can be translated as the time when things that have been brewing for a long time manifest themselves as direct and significant change. This is the occasion when actions speak louder than words, push comes to shove, and the decisions are made that can bring about fulfilment of currents already felt. In this situation things have come to a head and all that remains is for the direct effects to be seen in reality.
1. External Appearances - Labour. THE EMPRESS
Here we have a comfortable and commanding presence, albeit one that is essentially passive. It is clear that Labour have made significant gains, but only at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Nevertheless, they are beginning to show that their solidity and consistency can still make the political weather, even if they sit by and do nothing. It is a comfortable position, but the Empress, although abundant, fertile and often depicted as pregnant, still does not represent an active position in the world. Labour are not winning votes back from the Conservatives yet; all that is happening is that their position is consolidating the centre-left vote.
2. External Appearances - Conservatives. DEATH
The moment at which things start to move decisively against the Tories and will either make them act to stop the inevitable trend downwards (they have lost 5 points since last month's poll) or to make changes to personnel, policy, or even the leadership. There is transformation - new life from old - inherent in this card but it is not achieved without sacrificing something major before they can move on.
3. Internal Movements - Labour. KNIGHT OF WANDS
A dynamic but still reactive card. This suggests internal movement but one which may mean that Labour are simply reacting to world events or public pressure rather than taking the decision yet to go to the polls. There is a fight going on - perhaps this is over the specifics to be unveiled in the PBR, though Owlperson adds that it is likely that stories of discussions between Brown and Darling are over presentational matters rather than the nuts and bolts of policy which would have been settled on before the PBR date was announced. The card really depicts internal struggle rather than catalytic energy but at least there is creative discussions going on.
4. Internal Movements - Conservatives. IV SWORDS
The Conservatives are at daggers drawn and are trying not to panic here. They have a lot of bullish self-confidence in the possibility of winning an election (leading to George Osborne's noisy "scorched earth" claim). However this betrays a feeling of there being an uneasy truce, whereby the membership are disappointed by Cameron but not able to voice their concerns yet; or perhaps the "Roons", having got the upper hand on the Rons (Remove-Osborne-Nows), have imposed a curfew on dissent to stop the "run on the Tories" going much further.
5. Roots of poll. EMPEROR
There has been an emphasis over the last few weeks on taking control of a frightened and unstable economy. The Emperor signifies a steadying, firm hand on the tiller and an increase in direction. Given that Labour have regained the centre-left vote and the Tories' lead has collapsed from 45% to 40%, it seems that Brown's attempt to portray himself as the Iron Prime Minister, with his Magpie-Man Darling (naturally, Pica Pica is an ace at banking and finance, making magpie-totem Darling a natural choice for Chancellor, satisfying my curiosity as to whether Brown, having taken over from Blair, would not be PM and Chancellor simultaneously) at his side has worked, contrary to expectations.
6. Consequences of poll. JUDGEMENT
Following on from the Ten of Pentacles, Judgement represents a time where justice is meted out to those who are found wanting. It was to be hoped that Brown would end up being the person whom fate caught up with. Justice represents the querent reaping what they sow; the consequences of decisions made. However Judgement is a heavy-handed be-all and end-all for participants in a sequence of actions. Someone is going to get hurt. And I'm not sure it's going to be Brown.
7. Advice - Labour - VI WANDS
Labour would be best taking this poll as just one in a series of reasonable surveys. They should note that the Six suggests temporary and ephemeral victory, not a solid win and not a devastating loss. They should work with the poll's trend, but recognise that some people believe that this Mori poll represents something of an exaggerated trend (politicalbetting has a lot of interesting opinions on it). It is not the springboard for an election, but it is not a cause for worry and at least Labour can be boosted by this feeling of upwards mobility.
8. Advice - Conservatives - ACE OF PENTACLES
The Tories here are cautioned to take this seriously. The Ace of Pentacles represents a material gift or material reward. It is something to work with (they are not falling behind yet) but it is based in reality rather than spin and those who question the methodology like Strapworld on ConHome:
9. Warning - Labour. VI SWORDS
This is a warning against basing electoral prospects in the long run on just one poll. They might be tempted to push the boat out and hold a snap poll, but would be wiser to see what the longer term trend is and to see whether they can actually get into the lead after Christmas. Foolish moves now might unite the Tories before they get to the point of no return again and speed up their policy programme to the extent they can restore their 10%+ lead. 10. Warning - Conservatives. THE HANGED MAN
The Tories are becoming too complacent, and don't seem to want to believe what's going on, as Strapworld - and some other ConHome contributors - suggest. (I post there as a kind of Simone Heffer figure, but there are a lot of people who fluctuate between support and constructive criticism, so watching them is more interesting than either the outrightly critical or the Blue Stalinists.) This detachment is fundamental to continuing problems with the message and the inability to produce spin to match that that they claim Mandelson is dripping. (The imprisonment of Loki before Ragnarok, chained to rocks with Jormungand the snake dripping poison onto him, sums up the relationship the Tories find themselves in with Mandelson.) Any more detachment, longer term strategy (as Andrew Rawnsley claims Osborne is engaging in) or excuses for not releasing policy before the polls go any lower is likely to result in being hanged - in the way Saddam was. (The card does not depict execution; it depicts Odin suspended upside down on Yggdrasil in order to learn wisdom and patience.)
11. Direct outcome - Labour. PAGE OF SWORDS
Labour for the time being keep a flexible if naive outlook on the economic and political front. At their best, Labour are always naively optimistic, convinced of their own righteousness and starry-eyed in the face of Tory opposition. This worked well for Blair, who was the epitome of the quixotic and manipulative leader, wriggling away from certain doom on countless occasions. Brown is more ponderous and slow-moving, but this card suggests he may be learning from his predecessor, if in a superficial way. It might also suggest that by relying on his predecessor's spin doctors he might learn to become more nimble, or this suggests the spin is largely effective but superficial.
12. Direct outcome - Conservatives. KNIGHT OF CUPS
Not a wholly bad card, but representative of elements in the party who are acting to try and change the direction of the party without fully being in control themselves. The Knight of Cups represents an injection of ideas and emotion into the situation, which could destabilise the party as a whole, given that the ideas are not backed by much substance or controlled by those with solidity or gravitas. This could be beneficial for the party because it could convince Cameron to adjust his style or programme to accomodate their suggestions. Knights are erratic and act on impulse, and therefore it may serve to increase the idea of a "run on the Tories" in the short term at least.
13. Overall trend of polls. PAGE OF CUPS
The Page acts as the seed or initiation card of the suit he represents. In this way the polls are tending to represent the emotive aspects of the situation and the need for strength and experience. This card regularly comes up representing the Brown bounce - that it is not so much a bounce but a gentle flow in his direction - or, for the Tories, a leakage of their support away from the magic 40% needed to have a chance of winning the election. The trend is based on peoples' feelings - fearful or optimistic - rather than the grim reality, something the Tories will have to take into account if they want to win hearts and minds in the run-up to the next election.
14. Poll solutions. THE CHARIOT
The momentum is increasing in the trend noted above. Rather than fluctuating, the Brown bounce is now becoming a Cameron leak. The Chariot symbolises momentum increasing so much that things begin to go out of control, torn apart by conflicting influences, which, with the Tories displaying their panic now means that the trend is towards the centrifugal force which has torn apart previous leaderships.
15. Overall outcome - Labour. THE LOVERS
Labour re-establish themselves - for the moment - as the public's choice in these times, possibly only by default, but this is seeing off the challenge from the Tories who have consistently failed to put any money where their mouth is when the issue of fiscal stimulus is raised, and who are losing the battle for the "narrative". Labour keep things solidly in their favour because they have access to the levers of power, but also because the Tories have failed to articulate an alternative agenda that doesn't fall back on tactics which allegedly failed us at the last election.
16. Overall outcome - Conservatives. PAGE OF WANDS
This card suggests a new beginning and an initation of a new phase in the party's history, after the effects of the Death card have made themselves felt. The initiation inherent in the suit of Wands is creative inspiration, which the Tories need to harness into a properly balanced programme and manifesto in order to turn the trend back in their favour. However the need to strike a balance between solely relying on "creative inspiration" in policy-making - which could produce a rag-bag of initiatives or silly ideas for micromanagement - and establishing themselves as a competent alternative government is important. The Page of Wands rather suggests the Tories will rely on the former rather than trying to build the latter.
seem to live in as much a fantasy world as did Labour during the 1992 election campaign when they believed their activists being too busy to vote actually lost them the election (it was more Kinnock's hubris and the fact that people were more likely to vote for the "devil they knew"). The Tories must take this just as seriously as they did the polls putting them 20% ahead if they are to be realistic about their electoral chances.