Just a little announcement to make.

I will miss the Pre-Budget Report on 24 November.

I don't intend to spend my holiday writing tarot spreads for this blog, I intend to use it to show off my trip to the wider world (including my mother and grandmother, co-sponsors), but I will check the news and write a little bit on how I feel things are progressing. Tarot cards are not bulky but I would feel very sad if for the first time in two years I get a holiday abroad and use it to lollygag on how things are working out at home. I do intend to keep a poltiical diary about the Baltic States but it will mainly focus on (a) how much Sterling's depreciation affects purchasing power; (b) who the governments of each country are and what they are doing; and (c) how many cepelinai I can shove down my throat in an hour. Oh yes, and (d) what the bloody hell National Rail are thinking of by making the train fare to Gatwick from Reading £21.50 (!!!) when the trains are so slow and so crap. Anyway I'm actually going now (it was touch and go for a while on the money situation) so sorry, George, but you'll just have to tell me how the PBR went for you when I get back.

Anyway, on with the show. From now until 24 November I will continue to post most days, I hope you are enjoying it out there by the way, if anyone has any comments to make the facility is there and I don't moderate them...honest!

COMPARISON OF COMRES AND YOUGOV POLLS, 16 NOVEMBER 2008

The Independent on Sunday poll - Comres - is shown here, while the Sunday Times has its poll here.

OVERALL

S. Situation. KNIGHT OF WANDS.

An increase in internal politicking has occurred, with the partisan discussions mainly focussing on tactics rather than strategy (in both parties). This is a situation where party concerns are put above government and oppositional responsibilities and the personalities begin to be more important than policy motivations.

1. Commonalities between the polls. STRENGTH.

Both polls represent a wrestling match between the parties and a deep and uncompromising fight for superiority. Labour are trying to force upwards but the Tories are managing to suppress the Brown bounce - although the lead differs so much, it is still a Tory lead. The fight is getting closer and more evenly matched, but the intense competition is generating the ideas driving politics rather than allowing one party to completely dominate and drive the political scene into turgid banality.

2. Differences between the polls. THE HANGED MAN.

The differences need careful control and to be looked at dispassionately by the main protagonists. They make it difficult to judge the actual situation and thus require an interpretation that goes beyond mere statistics, looking more at actual performance and/or party psychology. Interpretation is made difficult by the discrepancy between 11% and 5% that it is worthwhile suggesting other factors may be more important in predicting who will win the next election.

COMRES - TORY LEAD OF 11%

3. External appearances. KING OF SWORDS.

This poll displays a certain "conventional wisdom" which shows the parties maintaining rather than bucking recent standings, with Brown still aspiring to a decent bounce (as against his summer ratings) but Cameron conceivably maintaining his position without difficult due to a certain anti-government buzz. The King of Swords is a card which represents unfulfilled potential, so it is wise not to jump to too many conclusions regarding positive support for the Opposition.

4. Internal discussions. III PENTACLES.

The parties are solidifiying their positions rather than there being any major surprises due for the moment. This is only the beginning of a tendency towards stasis, and it doesn't mean that Brown cannot turn things around. However with actual movement from one month to the next it seems as if these positions may be fixed for the time being.

5. Roots of the poll result. II CUPS.

There is a balance and equilibrium being established here - the tide is flowing in and out for both parties in equal measure, without any major cataclysm or miracle occurring for either party or leadership. Although Labour has reestablished itself the Tories have not collapsed yet - here at least.

6. Consequences of the poll result. II SWORDS.

Even the IoS article concedes the poll results are prone to large differences. The devil may be in the detail but for the moment there is no decisive element to move these polls significantly in one party's favour. Like in Strength, the two competitors are equally matched, just as in the Loki-Heimdall coupling I wrote about a few weeks ago before the Glenrothes poll.

In the Norse sagas, the story of Ragnarok concisely detailed the end of the world. WIthin it are many different battles, but one is between Heimdall and Loki: "age-old enemies, [they] will meet for a final time, and neither will survive their encounter." While I'm not sure Brown lives up to the shining character of Heimdall, nor does Alex Salmond plumb the depths of the sinister Loki, this card in this position for this event conjures up that line. This is not a clearly obvious result; both sides are evenly matched and although one party must eventually win, this card suggests not only a dead heat, but a destructive or exhausting one like the match between Heimdall and Loki. By-elections are always keenly fought and although the SNP started with a massive advantage, Labour have clawed a lot back in the last month and the SNP acted recklessly enough that the result is now in the balance. There can be only one winner, but both Heimdall and Loki are destroyed by their duel, and it could be that in the event of an SNP win Labour will have clawed back enough ground to make it respectable enough, whilst the SNP will have thrown a lot of promise away and done their reputation enough damage in the long run that Salmond has to rein in some of his radicalism and rethink policies he once thought would win the hearts and minds of the Labour establishment.

For the SNP, read the Conservatives, but otherwise, Heimdall in this situation, who I see as Brown (Cameron more suits the personality of Loki), is bringing the balance back in his favour.

YOUGOV - TORY LEAD OF 5%

7. External appearances. THE FOOL.

A new chapter in the bounce and seemingly some sort of breakthrough moment if we treat this poll as more relevant than the 11% lead one. (Owlperson remarks that the Tories would be wise not to dismiss this as a blip; it reinforces The Times' poll earlier this week and he believes they appear too complacent as yet if they are actually going to win the election.) An optimistic prospect for some who believe more work needs to be done on both sides to propel politics - and the country - forward and stop sloppiness on either side, either out of depression or hubris.

8. Internal discussions. THE MOON.

It might lead to inner understanding to regard this as the more relevant poll and to develop policies as if this was spot on. Intuition tells both parties the truth - the Tories should seek to raise their game and Labour should take heart and unite to win. The situation is still murky but it assists both parties in accepting this verdict as rather truer than the ComRes poll. A good politician, in Owlperson's view, treats the lowest lead as more accurate. Thus they can see what work remains to be done and not sink into a haze of complacency and waste opportunities.

9. Roots of the poll result. II PENTACLES.

Change and adjustment which has worked to realign the political firmament, although the change has yet to alter the parties' respective prospects radically, echoing the Roots/Consequences axis of the ComRes reading. This does suggest the shift towards Labour is continuing, though not rapidly enough to provoke Brown into calling an election.

10. Consequences of the poll result. KNIGHT OF COINS.

This is the poll which has most impact - naturally enough, as it shows the most fluctuation from this time last month - and it brings greater initiative because the narrowing lead makes a greater impact on both parties. The Knight of Coins typically also warns against spending what you don't have, so in this situation each party would be wiser to see how the issues develop before making any more assumptions about public opinion.

CONCLUSIONS FOR THE PARTIES

CONSERVATIVES

11. Direction. THE STAR.

The Tories take out of this hope and optimism, though should guard against naivete or too much expression of this insubstantial good fortune. They have enough still to play for not to get discouraged or suicidal, but need to transform this flimsy happiness into more substantial and established gains.

12. Solution. VII PENTACLES.

The Tories are growing and establishing real ideas, but this is a solution suggests a bit more frustration with the pace of their campaign and policymaking than is necessarily comfortable for their membership. If progress halts at this point the poll leads will not actually materalise at the election.

13. Outcome. KING OF PENTACLES.

Government does await but this figure needs to emerge fairly quickly to capitalise on the poll leads still extant. Although they still have a lot to hope for, they need to allow this tendency to develop within themselves. This suggests something or someone acts to bring this about, but a latent frustration may actually help to bring it about.

LABOUR

14. Direction. IX CUPS.

Labour continue to make good on short-term gains and to develop a sense of personal or political abundance. They are more able to make sure this is not just idle hope but substantive, material or psychological success.

15. Solution. JUSTICE.

The winner here definitely takes all. The decisive momentum for the moment is with Labour, almost independent of the poll results. The significant event also begins to allow Brown to float of his own accord rather than the bounce having to be tracked from poll to poll; and thus people can begin to se the wood for the trees.

16. Outcome. QUEEN OF SWORDS.

Nevertheless, keeping an eye on what is going on allows Labour to maintain the bounce using its own due care and attention. This card does however suggest - and warn against - too sharp a focus, too hyper a consciousness, of issues, polls and personalities, leading to micromanagement that may give off - rightly or wrongly - a sense of fear. This may balance out the real momentum coming from Justice, and lead to unnecessary panic as a result.