There is a debate still going on as to whether Cameron should replace George Osborne. Osborne's Times interview has had a mixed reception. ConservativeHome obviously loves it (more on them later). The Guardian's Toby Helm reckons it will cause "a run on the Tories". Personally I reckon the difficult part of the interview is where Osborne talks about Labour pursuing a "scorched earth policy" because they believe they have already lost the next election. That is a daft thing to say, for a number of reasons.

“The issue in British politics is not tax, it is borrowing,” he says. “Gordon Brown doesn’t care about the amount of debt. His view is that he probably won’t win the next election, and the Tories can clear the mess up after he’s gone. That is deeply irresponsible. It’s a scorched earth policy which I think the history books will write up as a total disaster and which, more importantly, the public will see through between now and the election.”

Firstly, he assumes the Conservatives are at a solid enough lead in the polls to actually resist the Brown bounce trend over the last month. A ComRes poll is due out tomorrow in the Sunday Independent, but the trend has been for the Prime Minister to consistently score well when people are asked which is the best party to run the economy. Secondly, Neil Kinnock acted like he had already won the election a week beforehand, which only served to put people off. The Tories can ill afford hubris now, let alone in 18 months' time, if recent form is to be taken into account. Thirdly, it suggests the Conservative leadership believes it does not have to do much more or produce a coherent campaign in order to win properly. This is dangerous complacency which has pricked a number of Tory bubbles over the last twelve years, from William Hague at the fuel protests to Michael Howard's Harrogate spring conference. If the Tories are going to transform their shrinking lead into actual votes, they are going to have to commit to something solid on the economy and pull off a series of radical coups to turn things round. With the G20 summit endorsing borrowing to finance tax cuts and setting up London as their next venue, alongside the limp and highly slated launch of supposed "funded tax cuts" on Tuesday, it looks as if the Tories have been left bleating into nowhere. It also looks like Cameron and Osborne are, like the proverbial Hare, napping while Tortoise Brown ambles towards the finish line of a fourth term.

Osborne might harp on about social responsibility (mentioning the Baby P and Shannon Matthews cases as if they are directly Gordon Brown's fault) but this paragraph too belies a cynicism and a ridiculous posturing where every example of the shamelessness of private human beings is turned into a political football. What has the Shannon Matthews case to do with political posturing? Does La Matthews vote Labour? Has she come out for Gordon Brown? It smacks of desperation when the sole issue that David Cameron can get excited about is something that should be completely beyond the arena of party politics. Are these cases going to be cut under a Tory government? Is David Cameron going to personally find these people who tie up little girls and stash them under beds in order to make a bit of money off the finders' reward? Perhaps he should - then we could get some proper leadership instead of this cynical twosome who have been brought up on Blairism and don't realise that party ended 18 months ago.

I have read here for the prospects for various Shadow Chancellors people are touting around. I start off with George Osborne - he is becoming increasingly hypothetical an example as the Party lurches from ridiculous policies to cynical, smarmy spin.

A. GEORGE OSBORNE

1. Expectations. VI SWORDS.

It is expected that Osborne will begin to move away from current issues now he is to spend more time with the economy. He is being given another chance to stop the rot and challenge the government over their figures in the Pre-Budget Report (henceforth the PBR) on 24 November. Cameron has (unsurprisingly) allowed him to continue in his main job, which means he still has confidence in the Shadow Chancellor's ability to deliver the goods, to push the boat out, and to show that the Conservatives are thinking hard on the subject of the economy.

2. Reality. THE HERMIT.

Osborne remains isolated and deep in thought (despite the reaction from the Conservatives supporting his comments this afternoon). This solitude presumably gives him a chance to think up some better strategies in order to build economic policy properly in the run-up to the local and European elections next spring and summer. There is still a certain loneliness to his position as Shadow Chancellor despite Tory endorsements; the media in general is more lukewarm about his prospects, even after his interview. The implications in The Hermit suggests Osborne needs to raise his game, to find something inside himself to generate some more excitement in the party and the country at large.

3. Possibilities. VII WANDS.

Again the strife and tension in this card works to keep Osborne on the political tightrope. This cards suggests the threat of redeployment may improve his game plan for the moment to try and win back some of the confidence the Tories originally had in him; but it may also suggest that he is still not wholly in command of his brief and either needs a direct coup - provoking a run on sterling is not it - or to move over and let someone else manage the party's responses.

4. Outcome. III SWORDS.

The battle ends in defeat and a definite breakdown for Osborne, whether in the short-term or long-term future. Although he has been moved from strategy detail to concentrate on his main job, it is still likely he could be found wanting where it really hurts - such as at the PBR, for example. Not a good omen at all.

5. Will Cameron sack him? QUEEN OF CUPS.

No. Osborne provides part of the framework for the Conservative Party at the moment in other matters than on the economy, and he brings enough to the "Cameroon" tendency that he is indispensable to Cameron's project, just as Brown was to Blair. Whether or not this is a good thing remains to be seen, with the Three of Swords in mind, but it is an inescapable fact that to move him, demote him or sack him would be to acknowledge that not only he, but also the Cameron tendency, has failed.

B. JOHN REDWOOD.

1. Expectations. III CUPS.

Redwood could be a real boost to the party as someone who promises ideological consistency (over Europe, an argument mostly now won by the Euro-agnostic tendency, to which I belong, because of the government's own unwillingness to make radical moves towards the EU as a federalist state or membership of the single currency) and a sound grasp of the brief. If enticed back into the Shadow Cabinet (unlikely but possible if Cameron were prepared to ask him, which is the biggest IF this side of Rudyard Kipling), he could prove just what the party needs.

2. Reality. KNIGHT OF CUPS.

Redwood would have to be sensitive to the current Conservative reality. He was prepared to weigh in behind Michael Howard so long as his position allowed him to speak from the backbenches in Parliament on behalf of his Wokingham constituents - myself included. However to bring all his opinions to the table would be to clash with Cameron's idea of how the party should be run. He would lose some of this stature in being forced to toe the line of the "progressive" agenda; he would not be able to think the unthinkable as much as people who want him to return might wish.

3. Possibilities. THE HIEROPHANT.

Redwood gives good counsel and his support of Osborne is total. He would undoubtedly be an asset to the Shadow Cabinet but is still able to inform the party from his current situation - just not participate in its leadership and direction. He would be very non-political a choice, as he is more of an economist at heart than a politician. He may not be politically palatable enough if Cameron needs to maintain a consistent message.

4. Outcome. ACE OF PENTACLES.

A real possibility and may step up if he can be lured back. (Indeed he was seen at a drinks party with Michael Ashcroft the other night - alongside David Davis. A dream ticket? Hmmmmmmmmmm...) He would only give himself if he could be convinced of the necessity of his presence, as he is currently enjoying backbench pontificating (see The Hierophant, also known in some decks as The Pope). However this may be arranged if there is a vacancy fairly soon in order to inject substance into the role.

5. Would Cameron appoint him? THE DEVIL

Would he b*llocks. Redwood represents what Cameron has been trying to expunge from Tory history. (If I see another article that mentions IDS and Cameron but not Howard I will scream so loud I will be heard simultaneously in Witney, Folkestone and Chingford. Clearly the Quiet Man is rehabilitatable but not the person who got half-way. What a warped party we live in.) Cameron would have to be desperate to appoint him, though if things continue along these lines, he will be.

C. KEN CLARKE.

1. Expectations. VI WANDS.

Clarke would be the choice to end all choices - he would represent a coup for the Tories, he would generate publicity for them and he would knock Labour into a cocked hat. Although the Six of Wands represents a temporary victory rather than a lasting one, it is assumed by many that Clarke, having gone head to head with Brown while Brown was still Shadow Chancellor, would be just the man to take on Labour at the dying end of their term and would singlehandedly win the election.

2. Reality. X PENTACLES.

Clarke does have solidity, which is what this card represents. It would be a good way to regain our standing in the polls, because Clarke would bring the substance he brought as our last Tory chancellor back to the office and be the person who could make the running rather than just vainly tilt at windmills like Osborne is doing. The potential for success is clear - if Cameron did the decent thing and called him back to the front line.

3. Possibilities. V PENTACLES.

But unfortunately it probably won't happen, either from Cameron or Clarke's side. The prospects of inviting someone who has refused to serve in all four Shadow Cabinets since 1997 back and him accepting are miniscule, so although the reality of Clarke as Shadow Chancellor and back at No. 11 would be a great one for the Tories, it is just not possible from his side. Furthermore, he would expose the shallowness of Cameron and probably be leader within six months. It is rumoured that IDS was doomed the day he appointed Howard as Shadow Chancellor, and Cameron knows this, which is why he doesn't appoint the heavyweights to his Shadow Cabinet. QED.

4. Outcome. THE WORLD.

The situation here is that striking difficulties make it impossible in reality for Clarke to be given the Treasury brief because of the personalities involved. Any "big hitter" would expose flaws in Cameron's own leadership or eclipse him, meaning a downfall in the one position not currently up for grabs. The World suggests that although Clarke would be the best choice, he would also be the worst for the whole Cameron project.

5. Would Cameron appoint him? STRENGTH

Cameron has the power here to resist the temptation posed by the brilliance Ken could bring because Ken would not accept the invitation. He might be tempted, given that this card always suggests control of impulse rather than simple patience and "knowing", but ultimately the personality clash would be too great for him to control Clarke's own desire to be Prime Minister without the hard bit of subordinacy to someone thirty years his junior in between.

D. WILLIAM HAGUE

1. Expectations. QUEEN OF PENTACLES.

Hague is definitely a possibility, inasmuch as he knows how to manage the party and has experience of government (as much as Redwood does, and the same position, but with added political personality to boot). The Queen is an "administrative" card, so Hague would be more astute and more understanding of realities than some others.

2. Reality. II WANDS.

The word "quixotic" springs to mind. Again, a good card, but with difficulties of strength and the sacrifice of long-term stability to flashes of inspiration and insight. This could be quite a powerful combination, and Hague has the sparkle politically that Redwood lacks. The Two of Wands is more equivocal a card than the powerfully creative Ace, but on the other hand could prove satisfying and, in the short term at least, be what the Tories are currently looking for.

3. Possibilities. VII SWORDS.

Cameron would have to watch his back. Hague is kept at arm's length as Shadow Foreign Secretary, having had previous leadership experience. He would as Shadow Chancellor provide a focal point for those discontented with Cameron and provide a potential challenger in the event of a crisis. Like with Clarke (where the decision is effectively made based on Clarke's own willingness to come back in as anything other than Leader of the Opposition) there is the question of how a Leader who has built his house based on his own personality and appeal may find it difficult to trust someone who still wants the job. Hague is invisible as SFS, and that is why Cameron wants to keep him that way.

4. Outcome. PAGE OF CUPS reversed

No good news here. The Page comes out reversed, and the most plausible person to replace Osborne should he fall is denied the opportunity even to audition for the job, let alone given it. Although Hague is instrumental to the Cameron project, he would not be given the brief because he threatens the leadership if he is given a chance to speak directly to the public as someone in control of economic policies. He is safer jetting between Europe, America, and his wife's banking conferences, than he is being able to challenge Brown - and Cameron - with such a high profile role.

5. Would Cameron move him? VIII PENTACLES.

He would be the safest and most constructive choice if Osborne was to be deposed. He has spent enough time working with Cameron to be a good architect of the leadership's plans, and an honest and hard-working man in general. He is also intimately connected with the current Conservative design, so he would not rock any boats or steal any thunder; it is only Cameron's need for Osborne and fear of Hague's own ambitions that holds him off from redeploying him.

E. DAVID DAVIS

1. Expectations. VIII SWORDS.

Although he would be Lord Kalms' choice, the options here are extremely limited. Davis cannot come back into any frontbench role this side of a failed election. There is little point even touting him because of his earlier stunts which now would rule him out of any role, unless Cameron fell before the election.

2. Reality. IX CUPS.

Davis would be a good but not brilliant Shadow Chancellor. He has a deep fund of political talent but is a little over-eager at times for real capability in office. He could provide a good basis for an economic policy but this would be largely based on his ability to control his propensity to relax too much and let off steam too much. Although most politicians in the upper part Conservative Party tend towards the over-familiar and over-candid remarks with interviewers, Davis is a past master. He would last until the next time Brown or Darling did something he didn't like, and then would walk out on his own party.

3. Possibilities. IV PENTACLES.

The defensive nature of this card suggests that the Conservative Shadow Cabinet has drawn up the drawbridge on Davis and would resist his return to the frontbench, fearing more tantrums later on. There is pure defense in this card - Kalms holds the purse-strings, and can do damge (it sounds like he is angling for Davis as leader rather than Shadow Chancellor, which would be much more probable a take on the senior donor's views) but has little hope of having this particular desire realised before push comes to shove on Cameron himself.

4. Outcome. VIII WANDS.

Lord Kalms' comments add fuel to a fire which could start to burn out of control fairly soon within the parliamentary party, and it is likely that he could increase the pressure on Cameron in general if his seemingly impossible request is not honoured. In this context, the Eight symbolises the momentum building to spin the party out of control, not a rush of excitement and expectation that Davis could come back.

5. Would Cameron appoint him? ACE OF CUPS.

If he still wants Kalms' money, he might have to. But it is questionable that so soon after Davis walked out once, Cameron would welcome him back of his own free will. However if more donors follow suit, he might have no other option.