Pun definitely intended.
George Osborne comes under renewed scrutiny - with a lot more people now calling for his resignation, mostly from the blogs on the Torygraph but also in the print edition and with Conservative Home opening the debate on it in Torydiary (complete with eye-bleeding picture of Vulpes Vulpes and Corvus Corone - Georgie and I share a totem up close and rather too personal; Vulpes Vulpes needs to lose a bit of weight as well as a Shadow Chancellor, but never mind that...).
Last time we looked, George was safe and grounded, if somewhat damaged by the Yachtgate issue. He was under attack prior to this, and his popularity ratings plummetted thereafter, but since then he has been rather conspicuous by his silence/absence/sidelining (delete as appropriate), which may have handicapped the Tories' economic policy (although if anything they were handicapped before Yachtgate anyway and it was just icing on the cake).
So what will happen now? I don't call the shots; personally I would tell him to concentrate on his Treasury role and not touch party management, but there again I'm not sure I would have brought him so soon up to the Shadow Chancellorship and given him a few more years of being Shadow Chief Secretary and then hopefully Chief Secretary while someone with more gravitas was given the economic role. However given the only other options for Shadow Chancellor don't have that weight either - Oliver Letwin was almost as bad a Shadow Chancellor and it always looked as if Howard had just given him the job to shut him up in 2003 and really wanted to bring Redwood in full-time - I'm not sure what I'd do right now.
Neither Ken Clarke or John Redwood, I believe, would want to come back - but looking at them as possibilities may be a topic for later on if something doesn't come up before then.
On with the show.
S. Situation. TEMPERANCE.
Osborne is being kept in limbo while his fate is ultimately decided. The difficulties with him are no longer a case of direct scandal but consideration of Osborne's future is taking place away from the heat of the Yachtgate issue. Nevertheless there is still balance within the system, as if this is a debate independent of the leadership and has been generated by the need for discussion about something and the absence of anything else to talk about.
1. External appearances. IX SWORDS.
The external quality of the debate is torrid and two Telegraph blogs and a print article have questioned Osborne already. (This is given credence because of the location of the debate in the "house journal" of the Conservative party, signifying the debate is important to the party machine rather than just idle speculation from parties hostile to Osborne.) This means that there is fire with the smoke clearly visible - refusals to move Osborne may placate the anxious party which needs political consistency, but since there is any question at all, is it not less dangerous to deal with this by showing the leadership is listening? Indecision is visible here, as well as in party circles such as the Tory Home blog entry above; this is generally damaging in the long term if left to continue.
2. Internal discussions. V SWORDS.
There is a concrete debate and outcome already visible in the inner party sanctums (sancta?) and hierarchy which may come out over the next while. Action should be taken soon on this, announcements regarding Osborne made, foreshadowed by the smoke coming off the internal fire given off by the bloggers and columnists in the Torygraph. This may be linked to problems in the polls elsewhere which have knocked the party harder than it appears.
3. Roots of the Situation. THE EMPRESS.
The card here suggests that a dispassionate time preceded this debate and a period of calm meant that the charged atmosphere of Yachtgate was allowed to clear before a decision was taken over Osborne's long-term future. The Party approaches this calmly and dispassionately and makes it plain that this new debate holds no malice or is not a knee-jerk reaction to Yachtgate itself.
4. Consequences of the Situation. STRENGTH.
Destructive impulses are curbed and Osborne may survive the current scrutiny. As usual, implied in Strength is the suppression of difficulties rather than their neutralisation. With the internal/external axis looking so dangerous this could delay and intensify the dynamic rather than dispel it if the party refuses to stop discussing the matter.
5. Advice. X WANDS.
The heaviness of this burdensome question is not going to go away - it is dangerous to ignore the issue and the nature of pent-up frustration may intensify pressure on both Cameron and Osborne, who are intimately connected and part of the same "team" since its conception. This may lead to added pressure to keep Osborne but Cameron should recognise the need to be professional and balance the needs of the Tory agenda with the retention of friendships made earlier on.
6. Warning. THE CHARIOT.
The situation can and probably will end up out of control. Once speculation begins - as it did even before Yachtgate - it tends to take on a life of its own. The difficulties in internal and external debates may end up out of hand and if it does it may take more than Osborne with it - given previous Tory experience. It could be fatal if something is not done to stop the momentum building.
7. Action from Cameron. KNIGHT OF PENTACLES.
Cameron relies mainly on doing things at the last moment possbile, and may not be fully cognisant of the debate getting louder. However, the reliance on others implied by the Knight is not the best position for a leader to be in and DC may be indecisive or too bound by other loyalties to act properly. Cameron needs to maintain his position and exert his authority, but he is constrained here by external events rather than being master of them.
8. Action from Osborne. THE HANGED MAN.
Osborne continues to be sidelined but is not sacked and does not resign - for now. Staying in this position is staying in the status quo for better or worse, and whether this is an endorsement from Cameron or mere indecision on his part is not obvious here but may become so later on.
9. Direction. III PENTACLES.
The debate becomes substantial and more coherent, and builds to a point where it becomes something more significant than just idle party chatter. The learning process implied here gives lessons in how to handle this kind of situation in preparation for government, and/or a lesson for those watching in how to run their own people management or "personnel departments".
10. Solution. DEATH.
The situation needs to be - and probably is - resolved with productive and decisive results. This may suggest the fundamental damage done is a result of inactivity above after the movement becomes obvious in the the Three of Pentacles. Death represents a finality as well as a transformation. Destructive chatter such as the blogs, articles and commentary elsewhere needs to be resolved before it goes ballistic, and if people involved do not stop it or make necessary adjustments, then it may stop itself with more difficult results than desired.
11. Outcome. PAGE OF CUPS.
There is a humility and innocence in this card, as if someoe outside the fray, more junior than the leadership, ensures that the necessary tonic is delivered to Dave and George. Although the decisiveness of Death is unequivocally acting on the situation to arbitrate, it will be coming from elsewhere to solve the problem, rather than from within the current hierarchy. A solution acceptable to all is delivered.
00.29 - This just in from the Independent. Let's get ready to ruuuuummmmmble!
