As I provided as an addendum to the last post, David Davis has done Desert Island Discs, conspicuously close to the one he did in this week's New Statesman, now published in edited form. It may be coincidental, given that both interviews were solicited - but what does that mean? Perhaps that some bored journalists are depressed at the lack of anarchy within the Conservative Party and decided that now was the time to inject some. However, given that Davis has, in this new interview at least, made some more fantastically candid comments, I don't think he comes out of this looking very good. I'll explain more during the reading, but my problems with Davis started when he claimed that Michael Howard wasn't sexy enough to be Prime Minister (just after the last election). Well, pardon me, but if I'm not turned on by "Something of the Night" Howard, I'm not sure I'm likely to be turned on by someone with a personality like a wet weekend in Hull and an ego the size of Haltemprice and Howden. Nor am I likely to be reassured by a leader who resigns at the drop of a hat when the government wins a debate that was opposed by your own party. Resign from the Shadow Cabinet because you don't get on with Vulpes Vulpes, if you like (I've got nothing against that myself), but if we are going to have a party leadership, it might as well be one which doesn't do or say daft things like that.
Given that twice in one week suggests to me he thinks the time is right to hold his own leadership election, then perhaps the tarot should be called in to decide on this one.
Situation. THE MAGICIAN.
Davis is wielding the powers he has to provoke and make more outspoken waves within the political community. He has a range of tools available in this card and picture to put out his message and opinions, and he is using them for his own ends quite deliberately, if rather spontaneously and in a manner in which it looks as if his approach is rather haphazard.
Why now? II CUPS.
Quite simply, Davis has found an audience. It takes two here to make an interview, and the media is using him just as much as he is using the media. They want his opinion, he wants their publicity because it is of mutual benefit. The motive here behind both the media invitations and Davis' acceptances is to make waves in the best way while the Tories are still vulnerable over their poll lead haemmorhage for the first time since Cameron dodged a bullet in the summer of 2007.
1. External appearances. VIII WANDS.
Davis wants to generate some personal momentum in order to make his voice heard on other issues. He is using outlets at his disposal to drive himself forward and to add to momentum for his own campaigns. This may not be entirely consistent with the aims of the Conservative leadership, but then the media motivation in asking him is such that he may not even be aware he is being used. Or, of course, he might well be.
2. Internal discussions. KNIGHT OF CUPS.
This card appeared for Davis in spreads throughout the spring and summer, thereby suggesting he was acting under the influence of his conscience, or ambitions, or both. Here again he is under similar orders from some subconscious need or idea that he has something to bring to the discussions within the Conservative Party as a whole, and that this can be best achieved by playing up tensions with Cameron rather than trying to damp down speculation about that particular reason for resigning in the summer. He is using opportunities extended to him; whether this is right from a party viewpoint or offered to him with no ulterior motives does not concern him very much at all.
3. Obstacles. ACE OF CUPS.
Perhaps he does not understand or comprehend that the timing of these opportunities coincide with the first serious difficulties the Tories have got into for a year or so. This seems to be him acting in a manner which facilitates difficulties rather than which offers help to Cameron or Osborne as recriminations begin to be voiced elsewhere in the "narrative". If it is to publicise current campaigns, these do not appear significant enough in either the NS interview or in the Desert Island Discs preview to reassure me, and probably the Tory leadership alongside me, that this is any reason to accept the interviews proffered. He is drinking from a poisoned chalice; one reading of this is that the scheming Labour-orientated media is directing Davis to make subtle jibes at Cameron and also to puff up his own ambitions. As he admits to sloppiness in the DID preview, this may also backfire - his lax attitude towards making these comments suggests he would not make a good enough leader anyway, and is voicing something that would damage his prospects later on if Cameron were to fall.
He also confessed that he did not do enough preparation for his poorly-received speech to the 2005 Tory Party conference, widely seen as the moment at which he blew his chance of becoming party leader.
"I simply made the mistake of not spending enough time on that speech. There's nobody else to blame but me - I made the mistake and I took the hit and I knew that within 24 hours," he said.
It just sounds like Davis' mouth has run away with him, yet again.
4. Overcoming. QUEEN OF SWORDS.
By being more careful Davis can avoid the pitfalls in this approach, but he will have to be less candid or self-deprecating and be aware where he is being made to look like he is challenging Cameron - or made to look foolish. Care here comes in the form of staying alert, remaining watchful that he does not relax into suggesting he would be sloppy in speechwriting later on, and to know when he might be used against the leadership by Labour supporting media outlets. He is more candid on DID than in the New Statesman, but he should use the Queen of Swords' mental carefulness to tread warily and stop himself sabotaging any future ambitions.
5. Direction. TEMPERANCE.
He keeps aware and relaxed. This card indicated he seems to know what he is doing. He is balanced and temperate, and not overly dismissive of the leadership, but he must be doing this now to maintain and/or build a profile in order to take advantage of difficulties in the leadership at a future moment in time. This is a card of patience - without the suppression element inherent in Strength - and the patience here is that of a cat stalking a mouse.
6. Solution. V CUPS.
Davis has snatched defeat here from the jaws of potential victory. As the interview betrays, he pays less-than-adequate attention to what he is saying, and has less-than-adequate concentration under the pressure of a closely fought leadership campaign. This is failure to grasp the point of why he failed in the first place - he was always too candid about his intentions. My favourite quote was on the day London won the Olympics. In the paper - unfortunately published on 7/7 - he sat there, confident he would win out in the end, and said "I won't be opening the Olympics - that'll be the Queen". This basic personality flaw trumps learned experience, evidently. By acting as a stalking-horse Heseltine figure (interestingly, his totem is Grey Horse) now, he does himself more damage in the long run should a leadership issue actually arise.
7. Outcome. THE HERMIT.
Davis risks isolation and solitude here by on one hand appearing to do the rounds now before there is even a discussion about the leadership, let alone a vacancy. He has also been spotted - with John Redwood - having drinks with Lord Ashcroft - the conspiracy theorist in me remembers Michael Howard was having drinks with Stewart Wheeler and John Madejski a week or so before IDS was deposed, while simultaneously pledging loyalty to the beleaguered Duncan-Smith. However, on the other hand, he betrays extreme personal weakness and excessive openness about his ambitions and tensions with Cameron while in the Shadow Cabinet. It reminds me of the scene in Men Behaving Badly, where Tony has bugged Deborah's flat and is listening to her new boyfriend Ray slag Tony off. Rather than wait for him to finish - and for Deborah to tell Ray to stop belittling Tony and that she no longer wants to go out with him - Tony barges upstairs, destroys Deborah's door and physically threatens Ray - thus pushing Deborah back into his arms. Davis risks the same thing happening here - metaphorically of course - by ineptitude in trying to outfox Cameron.
Sorry Dave, but the time to promote your ambitions is after the job is open, not before.
