When David Davis resigned in the summer, I thought it was bad news for Vulpes Vulpes, given that it was the first time I had seen the phrase "Tories in turmoil" for, ooooh, two years (probably a world record there). However, the lead in the polls has since narrowed and Davis is trying again to provoke that magic little phrase, particularly after the last six weeks have not been that brilliant for the Conservative Party everyone previously thought might actually win this election. Davis, like Tim Montgomerie, still believes the Tories can win. Whether this is just obeisance to the party, giving it the benefit of the doubt, parenthesis round an otherwise critical brief, or sincerely believed, can be divined by the tarot.
Hence I have done quite a comprehensive analytical spread based on three tiers of cards. One row, a, is Davis' intentions in saying what he says in the interview for the New Statesman (the transcript has been released here). The second row, b, was how the reaction goes to this interview which might under certain circumstances be read as mildly critical of Cameron. The third row is the outcome for all five factors considered, c.
A. DAVIS' INTENTIONS
1. Short term. THE MAGICIAN - "The Magician represents a new range of opportunities, options and choices, and signifies the necessary skills, talents and chances to explore them. It is a card of great energy and creativity."
Davis here intends to use outlets open to him to kickstart his career. As a backbencher, albeit one with a more national profile, he has limited scope to use the media as effectively as he might as a frontbench spokesman. He has the short-term intention of making a noise, but this is more speculative and exploratory than combined with an obvious agenda.
2. Long term. V SWORDS - "This card suggests it would be wise to think carefully about a situation before deciding to tackle it. If you really cannot win, it may be better to be aware of this from the outset and not enter the fray. Try to recognise when a fight cannot be won and not waste precious resources."
Davis suggests he feels that he has been soundly defeated in the long-term - at least in the past long-term, if not in the future long-term - and is making this known. This is at least a conscious attempt to squash the idea he might challenge Cameron for the leadership, though some of the transcript bears all the hallmarks of those who go on to lead the party distancing themselves from any speculation that might be going on. Michael Howard himself put the kibosh on his own ambitions in this manner - six months before his own accession. It is likely that even if Davis has conceded defeat for the moment, this does not rule out a candidacy later - IF the vacancy should arise. A NOTE - I had an eerie dream about a month ago where Cameron was deposed and Davis named as a co-respondent in the political divorce. You read it here first...
3. Leadership. III SWORDS - "When this card appears in a reading, it may point to an experience of disappointment or sadness. However, there is often a profound understanding that some pain is unavoidable - that it is inevitable and even right."
Davis makes this interview at a critical time for the Tory leadership and this may be the effect it has on the leadership, which Davis may hope for. The timing is such that it compounds Cameron's problems by being portrayed as panicky, and despite trying to conceal criticism behind stinging "faint praise" this card exposes the possible effect he hopes this interview will have.
4. Policy. DEATH -"Death heralds the inevitable ending of something, yet whenever there is an end there is always a new beginning. The change and transformation this card heralds may be desired or not; whichever it is, it cannot be avoided."
Davis does not talk extensively about policy except that which cut short his own front-bench career, so Death here represents his trajectory, rather than his views on the Tories in general. However, the key here is that Davis' intention is to provoke debate on policy in general and open up another course of action to the Tories by presenting himself as a gently critical friend.
5. Activity. V CUPS - "The Five of Cups describes the feeling of sadness, loss or disappointment when something one cares for is lost or spoilt. It is difficult to see remaining positives but they do exist, symbolised here by the full cups behind the grieving figure."
Davis feels this disappointment in Conservative activity and it is conveyed in much of what he says. He is now able to express this veiled discontent and he tried here to put out feelers towards a possibly more outspoken criticism of party policy and direction. The disappointment in current direction is all the more effective for how subtle it is.
B. REACTIONS
1. Short term. V PENTACLES - "The Five of Pentacles may point to a time of financial hardship or loss of money, sometimes accompanied by a loss of faith or loss of self-worth. While financial problems are uncomfortable, they are bearable if we do not lose faith or self-respect."
Davis may here provoke soul-searching or questioning despite the faint praise he uses to put his points about Cameron across. There is a scepticism that Davis does not mean to promote himself as the next leader, but the timing means it could ring some bells with people dissatisfied with the leadership - if they see through what he is trying to say, and Conservative Home may have done. There is a certain penetration of defenses here and a scepticism of his good intentions.
2. Long term. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE -"The Wheel of Fortune signifies a new beginning, a new chapter opening or a new run of luck. The important thing is to remember that all runs of luck, whether good or bad, do eventually come to an end."
The longer-term prognosis is neither good nor bad, but different. This may have come as a surprise to the leadership and its timing coincidental, but nevertheless it has a fundamental effect on the future as an element of change.The reaction here gives the article more strength than it might have had in less fragile times for the Tories, and may add fuel to a fire that could soon get out of control.
3. Leadership. KNIGHT OF WANDS - "The Knight of Wands symbolises travel. These journeys may be literal, spiritual or psychological. The card may point to a change of residence or even a move abroad. He may also represent a change of residence or even a move abroad. He may also represent an enthusiastic person or a longing for personal expansion."
The Knight of Wands delivers action which originates elsewhere. The leadership here react rather than initiate - they act retroactively and without much deliberate thought rather than considering the options available to them wisely. They move almost reflexively to shore up the damage the article might do as if they have something to lose by letting it go in a dignified manner. In this their panic may be revealed and compounded.
4. Policy. - STRENGTH - "The Strength card suggests the possibility of achieving self-awareness, personal inner strength and determination, and the courage to take on the task of self-discipline."
The party does not change its direction merely in response to this interview, but implied in Strength is the control of some other impulses which might be the province of the Knight in B3. The policy direction should not be affected by the article, but there may be some inner responses such as from Michael Gove - who disagreed with Davis over detention without charge - that have to be suppressed.
5. Activity. THE HANGED MAN - "In order to gain, something must first be relinquished, yet the decision is voluntary. The Hanged Man is an image of conscious choice; there is no question of being forced into any decision. A sacrifice is made willingly, yet it involves an act of faith because there are no guarantees regarding the outcome."
The activity may show only in minor details, but the inaction shown in the card is the suspension of something which can be missed. Regarding Davis, this might be quiet readjustment within CCHQ, who could be expected to know what Davis is telling them, reading between his lines. The party may be publicly trying not to give him credence, but seeing where his criticisms have most credibility are acting accordingly in private.
C. OUTCOME
1. Short term. III PENTACLES -"This card denotes some sort of material accomplishment that has been gained through hard work and perseverance. Even though it is not yet finished, it is worthy of recognition and a sense of achievement."
Some adjustments are made - materially - in the way things are done, based on covert criticisms. The construction here is just beginning, and may be a process of learning or studying rather than ambitious development, but it does suggest a climate where the seeds planted now will sprout healthily later on.
2. Long term. VIII SWORDS - "The Eight of Swords symbolises certain restrictions and difficulties. It shows that, while times are not easy, they are not impossibly hard either. Responsibility must be taken in order to change things. Perhaps the most difficult aspect of this card is deciding which direction to take out of an awkward situation."
The long-term impact of this is to box in rather than release the creative energy surrounding this situation. Davis cannt be outspokenly critical of Cameron and although measures are taken in C1, they may lead to a dead end which has to be exploded to escape from it. The restrictions on further development of the Three suggests the wrong lessons are being learned, and that is potentially as dangerous right now as doing nothing.
3. Leadership. KING OF SWORDS - "The King of Swords suggests it is time to start developing your mental skills and intellectual prowess in new ways. It can also mean that a figure of authority, perhaps connected with the legal profession, may enter your life."
The leadership takes note of the discussions here on a mental level at least and develops from the reactionary Knight of Wands to the more thoughtful and incisive King here. They still lack the "prime mover" asepct of the King of Pentacles, the ideal leader, but they have sharpened their responsiveness and no longer get involved in the petty mudslinging of the Knight of Wands.
4. Policy. II SWORDS -"The Two of Swords indicates a tense situation. There is reluctance about looking at it too closely for fear of having to alter the status quo. The blindfold symbolises resistance to change. The woman covers her eyes in the hope that difficulties, if unseen, will go away."
This represents continuing timidity in policymaking and continuing equivocation and lack of firm direction. This direction is static - there is no will to alter policy because criticism may not be read into Davis' words at a deeper level - and he may be dismissed as irrelevant. Policy does not fundamentally alter - any impulse to change is dealt with in Strength - and so things remain finely balanced and inconclusive for the moment.
5. Activity. II CUPS - "The Two of Cups combines the balance of the number Two with the watery, feeling nature of the suit of Cups to symbolise co-operation, sharing and friendship. This could signify the beginning of a love affair or platonic friendship. There is usually a sense of attraction at the start of a relationship and often we are attracted to qualities opposite to our own - hence the image of masculine and feminine, which can also be seen as positive and negative, yin and yang."
The situation remains in the balance, echoing the Two of Swords in Policy with the Two of Cups here. A continuation and stasis in party campaigning - not going up, not going down. This is not dynamic but it seems to be the leadership's prepared game plan, perhaps attempting to ambush Labour nearer to an election with a full manifesto and coherent network on the ground in the constituencies where the election will be fought. This may be planned for the conference due to be held late next year (2009) which would be the last before a compulsory election in 2010. Davis has not impact here but the party takes this serenely and beatifically, not allowing it to derail its quiet somnolence for the moment.
