It has been rather a disappointing day for the Conservatives with most newspapers being lukewarm to their ideas of allowing business a relief on NI for each new employee they take on, as well as criticism from Conservative Home on the general strategy being pursued. Tim Montgomerie's Tory house blog is sceptical - although it still says the Tories are on the way to election victory because Labour is so demoralised:
None of this need be electorally consequential. ConHome believes that Labour is so broken that the Conservatives are still on course to win the next election. As economic gloom descends the Tory lead will grow again. Middle Britain's allergic reaction to debt will finish off Mr Brown's undeserved reputation for prudence. Our concerns aren't electoral but about getting a really worthwhile Conservative economic policy.
However, flops such as this don't exist in isolation. Too many, and despite the possibilities the blogger here suggests, and Labour will win by default because of the lack of any sound alternative, despite whatever the Tories claim now. This could be one in a series of flops if the leadership does not see that its way forward is predicated not on miniscule, timid movements like this in the hope that they will win by default, but large eye-catching developments that, while still possibly light on policy, suggest the Tories know what they would be doing in government. David Davis' interview with the New Statesman - more on the possible impact of this later - suggests Blair was too busy engaged in winning the election that he neglected what he was going to do afterwards. Maybe. But the Tories need to at least try to manage to do both, like I believed Howard was capable of in 2005, had he had the time to portray himself as a leader-in-waiting and had the understanding needed to engage with the public in ways which Cameron has done all too much, like writing for mass-market tabloids about the Tory agenda and trying to beat Labour spin at its own game. He had the policies, could walk the walk, in a way, but he didn't - oddly enough for a politician - talk the talk.
On with the reading.
S. Situation. VIII SWORDS - "Restriction, major difficulties, enforced isolation and adverse circumstances dictated by Fate. These can, however, be gradually overcome by patient effort and attention to detail. This card appears on the surface to be very unfortunate in meaning, yet serves to indicate that a cycle of adversity is coming to an end and that changes for the better are already operating in one's life. But this is not an automatic process; opportunities must be grasped."
The Tories are in a bind here - the reaction to the cuts was universally bad for them - if the policy was not the issue, as it was for some newspaper columnists, then Conservative Home is sceptical about the presentation. It suggests that Labour is already broken and that this issue will not stop the Tories winning an election, but they criticise the scale and presentation of the policy nonetheless. There is a feeling that the Tories are handicapped by their reluctance or inability to do anything bigger or bolder.
1. External appearances. IV WANDS - "Achievement in the realm of ideas. The card of the successful and renowned designer, innovator or professional man. The establishment of beauty and elegance. Wit, mental activity, the most subtle arts of civilisation, refinement and culture."
The beginnings of something to come out of CCHQ but something very skeletal rather than substantial. Something here belongs to the realm of ideas and the policy is a good idea; it might not be much or substantially useful in a recession, but it is given credit for its intellectual foundations.
2. Internal discussions. THE FOOL - "Indicates an influence which is unexpected and unplanned, but which exerts a powerful force on the matter in hand. It is a challenge that can transform the situation in the querent's favour if properly handled. It indicates that an important decision or choice will have to be made if this card is well-placed, flanked by fortune cards, then a wise decision will be made, and perseverance will bring its rewards. If badly placed, flanked by unfortunate cards, warning is given of impending error. The Fool can also indicate the imminent start of a new cycle of destiny, and can refer to a type of person - the creative dreamer."
The internal reaction is that this is a spontaneous reaction to the need for some sort of political momentum and was not planned in any great detail. There has also been a loosening of some control and this marks the beginning of a new undercurrent within the party membership. Because of the situational cards, both already revealed and still to come, the negative traits of the discussion are primary here, and people are finding their voice to say that the party has lost its way in this particular instance.
3. Roots of the Situation. III SWORDS - "Necessary strife and conflict. Destruction of the that which is obsolete in order to clear the ground for what will come after. Disruption, upheaval, separation and discord, but all with a positive end in view - the establishment of something better."
The policy was badly received and badly-timed, and thus the situation here is the product of the need to create something out of nothing. The disruption to existing strategy notwithstanding, the Tories look as if they were hoping that this would make a greater impact than it did. They trailed it for two days in the press, addressed the spiel to the News of the World as putting money back in the pockets of people who earned it, and tried to make out that this was their entire tax package. When it arrived, it was therefore more disappointing than if it had been promoted as an element of business policy or combined with something more substantial. Hence the reaction to the policy was a big thumbs down despite the sense of the idea being fairly obvious to this "punk tax cutter" ((c) Daniel Finkelstein).
4. Consequences of the Situation. IX SWORDS - "Deception, disappointment, failure, cruelty, unreasoning passions, violence, scandal, all of which can be combatted by resignation, passive obedience, faith and calculated inaction. This is the card of the martyr; it brings strength and new life out of suffering."
The consequences of the disappointment associated with the Three and Eight of Swords intensifies problems rather than dissolves them. The party's internal debates become more heated and the leadership demonstrates again and again that there is nothing serious coming out of CCHQ, whether from the already-compromised Osborne or the damaged Cameron, who has fronted the latest round of policy promos to escape the stigma attached to Yachtgate.
5. Attitude of the Leadership. VII WANDS - "Indicates a time of great possibility which requires the exercise of courage and determination if it is to be realised. Points to powerful competition but victory through sustained effort. Triumph over the vicissitudes of fate through personal valour. Opposition, obstacles, adversities, but the promise that success is within reach."
The leadership still believes they can overcome the negative implications of the Roots-Situation-Consequences axis of cards. Cameron began this by attacking Brown over Baby P at PMQs rather than leave himself vulnerable over the economy. This made him look evasive to some but gave him time to think and try to deflect the blows he has already taken back at Brown. However, if there is a struggle, it is still ongoing and is not over yet, given that The Fool is rendered ill-dignified by the surrounding Swords cards and that as a consequence the internal debate over competency is hotting up.
6. Attitude of the Membership. V CUPS - "The cup of happiness is overturned, harmony is replced by worry and a sense of loss. Melancholy and disappointment are indicated here, yet though something is taken, alternatives remain to be explored. Indicates a need for reassessment of one's life, followed by a major restructuring. If this can be done, all is not lost."
The membership is upset by this policy launch and is making its feelings shown through the usual channels. The leadership may become embattled if Cameron cannot placate this disappointment and dissatisfaction. Restructuring the party can be done if there is the will to do so - it will not happen spontaneously without party disaffection being adequately communicated to and accepted by Cameron and his cronies before it reaches boiling point. This policy has been dismissed even by Conservative Home - so there is a possibility that this will go further than Cameron would like.
7. Actions taken - in general. KING OF WANDS - "A man who is noble and and courageous, and who exhibits qualities of great strength and fortitude. He is virile and passionate and has a loyal and generous nature. He is a lover of traditional ways and family life. He tends to act swiftly when provoked, yet on occasion may find it hard to be decisive because his essentially just outlook enables him to see every side of a problem. He often acts as a mediator and is splendid at giving moral support."
There is action taken here, and the Tories act with direct and decisive force to rectify the situation. This is a pre-emptive strike in order to put the political agenda back on course in their favour. It is not easy to tell what exactly will result from this but it appears the "future" part of many of the previous spreads has now come through to the present, meaning that there has been the necessary catalyst to action. The Tories are collectively able to make this move rather than just make feeble "responses" to current events - as anything less than the King would have suggested.
8. Action taken by the Leadership. V WANDS - "Opposition, which requires mental agility to be defeated. Conflicts which cannot be avoided, tests that must be passed for further success to be attained or present achievements continued. Upheavals which call forth all resources of ingenuity and leave nothing secure. Indicates that the prize will have to be fought for relentlessly if it is to be gained."
The leadership cannot avoid this period of tension if it is going to critically re-evaluate its direction and dynamics and improve its performance on policy matters. It faces upheavals, but in many circumstances the Tories have been more flexible and less frightened of strife than their Labour counterparts, preferring to deal with bad leadership quickly rather than let it potentially ruin their electoral chances.
9. Action taken by the Membership. VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding-up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."
The membership drive these debates through numerous channels; however the emergence since the last impromptu leadership contest in 2003 of a thriving blogosphere makes opinion more transparent and therefore more deadly. The "crreative anarchy" provoked by this situation may be somewhat driven by the membership here rather than take place independent of it. Sudden activity on this front comes decisively from the important sections of the membership.
10 Direction. KING OF SWORDS - "He is mentally alert, inventive, of an original turn of mind, and is essentially rational in outlook. He is an advocate of law and order and an upholder of authority. He seeks executive office in order to see his ideas put into practice. Because of his versatility he often fails through lack of steady purpose; having formulated one plan he then proceeds to the next one with undue haste. He is an advocate of modernity at the expense of tradition."
The action here bases itself on the failure through lack of steady purpose - the Tories do not have a coherent game plan and cannot be expected to produce one because of the expectations built up before the policy announcement suggested this was the game plan, and they hoped for a great clamour of praise for it - and let themselves down. They have good intellectual bases for many ideas but do not have the political substance or will to put it into operation.
11. Solution. THE HANGED MAN - "The ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Flexibility of mind. Willingness to submit oneself to the dictates of the inner self and cast aside practical considerations when the time is right. Wisdom and guidance from the unconscious."
There is an implication here that the Tories let themselves be blown by fate into a solution to these issues. Because of the swift action on the part of the party forecasted by the King of Wands, they allow themselves to give in to the what the situation demands, rather than suppressing it or turning back the current tides. What this means in practical terms is not my job to tell, but it does mean that action is guided by the party's best interests in the long run whether or not it is difficult in the short term.
12. Outcome. QUEEN OF SWORDS - "She is highly intelligent, has a complex personality, and is concerned with attention to detail and accuracy in all things. She is alert to the attitudes and opinions of those around her and skilled at balancing opposing factions whilst she furthers her own schemes. She is self-reliant, swift-acting, versatile and inventive."
The Tories regain the initiative in dealing with internal issues but they are here focussed on improving their internal and external structures and presentations. For the moment they need to concentrate on putting their case together in order to fight Labour without disappointing the membership in the process. The Queen of Swords means looking critically within oneself to try and re-order things that have fallen out of place.
