Continuing the series on overall party developments over the next month. I will look at the tax details later on but for the moment I have this second part to write up and the Populous poll to comment on.
NB This was all written before the poll with the 6% lead came out. I write each reading out longhand before I post them to the blog to make sure that I can draft things in peace without juggling two or three books or the cards themselves on my cluttered desk.
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY 10 November - 20 December
INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
S. Situation. VII CUPS - "Daydreaming threatens to distract you from pressing decisions that need to be made soon from pressing decisions that need to be made soon if you want to realise your hopes. Imagination is a wonderful faculty, but there is always a danger of it degenerating into mere wishful thinking. Divide your plans into distinct practical stages so that you can tell when they start to stray too far from reality."
The Tories need to become aware that they are taking far too much for granted at this point in time. Poll projections are only relevant if they would translate into actual election results rather than just being a snapshot of public opinion at a certain point in time. (More relevant would be polls taken after an election has been called or at least programmed in to the situation and expected at a certain time. Neil Kinnock found out that even exit polls can be misleading.) The Tories need to strip away the veneer of 13% poll leads and examine actualities in more detail, or at least regard the election as not already in the bag and act accordingly.
1. External appearances. PAGE OF CUPS - "The Page of Cups is the ideal student, patient, receptive, docile, and eager to learn. Often the card represents the need for such an attitude if you are to progress. There are times for assertion and times for humility, and this is one of them. If it represents another person, it means someone nearby is willing to learn from you, although they may be too shy to ask."
The leadership is boyish and eager to be seen to be doing things, but this could have undertones of naivete, puerility (Osborne's new attempt to challenge Peter Mandelson to a duel, for example) and coming across as learning on the job rather than laying down the foundations for a secure government. They are innocent and idealistic, but this is a double-edged sword when dealing with the "big boys" such as Brown, Darling and Mandelson.
2. Internal movements. IX PENTACLES - "You are likely to receive substantial reward for your accomplishments and you will be able to afford to relax and enjoy your more contemplative inclinations. Don't shut out your family and friends, however, because they have had to put up with your darker words and have probably helped you through them much more than you know."
The Conservatives have a certain stability here which was lacking prior to Cameron's appointment; this internal consistency balances them and gives an underlying confidence missing from previous leaderships. However, this could ossify into complacency and coupled with the Seven of Cups it suggests that the Nine may be predicated on illusions of poll stability that Brown may seek to exploit with greater innovation and radicalism than Cameron is expecting or can match.
3. Roots of the situation. THE HIGH PRIESTESS - "Inspiration, learning, mystery, understanding of the inner workings of life, enlightenment and serenity are all represented by this card, with a hint that serenity can sometimes lead to emotional detachment from daily events. Often this card implies that hidden spiritual factors are currently affecting your life, so look carefully within, or consult a respected advisor."
There is a stability here which echoes the Nine of Pentacles and suggests that the Tories believe they are sitting on a solid poll lead, given that Brown has not eroded this deeper into single figures [as of yesterday afternoon] than 8% ahead. There is a feeling of depth here which may be deceptive given the appearance of the Seven of Cups; however there is some way that the Tories have moved away from divisive internal debates and towards more of a pact based on attaining power at the next election.
4. Consequences of the situation. II PENTACLES - "Difficulty and embarrassment at the beginning of a new business venture is suggested by this card, but the prospects are very promising if you are prepared to put in the hard work and resist making reckless gambles. Times of change like this are full of opportunity but also risk, so be prepared for a rollercoaster of a journey!"
Changes in this healthy looking situation [such as a poll haemmorhage fully taking into account the events of Glenrothes], but slower and more obvious than those which could destabilise the leadership completely. However, this change could well be damaging and could lead to necessary adjustments in the strategy or team rather than outright leadership challenges. There will be slippage here unless the Tories realise that they are being deluded by false polls about the likelihood of achieving current ratings during an election campaign and begin to be more pro-active and less complacent.
EXTERNAL FACTORS AND MEANS TO AN END
5. Advice. IX CUPS - "Victory and success come your way as several long-held dreams come true. Share your good luck with others and it will be multiplied. This is a good time for looking forward and making fresh plans for the future, because your confidence will be infectious. Several new and stimulating friends are likely to enter your life."
The Tories need to keep on generating ideas which are easily understood at the most basic level. As an advice card, this suggests the Tory leadership should carry on putting out their plans for office and be lavish and generous with the publicity in order to make themselves accessible to the general public and prove that they are the ones who can give Britain the abundance this card represents.
6. Warning. TEMPERANCE - "Disunion, overwork, competing interests, dissipation, restlessness and waste can all lead to a feeling of exhaustion. Nothing seems to have any real meaning and if the mood persists long enough, friends will begin to fall away. The past feels like a burden because you are unable to learn from it."
There have been difficult cards throughout recent Tory spreads, and the Tories must not now succumb to the itch that has caused the downfall of three previous leaderships. Disloyalty is likely to focus on the sense that Cameron and Osborne are squandering their poll leads and that the representatives of the official line - Louise Bagshawe in particular - do not take discussions seriously, nor seem to absorb problems in the system until it may be too late.
7. Pro-Tory media bias. THE MOON - "A choice needs to be made that could determine your happiness for a long time ahead. You need to be guided by intuition and feelings when making this choice, but at the same time there is a real danger of delusion, of being misled by wishful thinking or by someone whose judgement you trust. Times like this are true tests of character and your grasp on reality."
The media are hedging their bets, basing their support on actual events rather than pledging unswerving loyalty to a particular party. The Moon traditionally shows that answers are hidden and only revealed when the time is right. The media is neither pro- nor anti-Tory, but bases its support or bias on the way the wind is blowing. The Tories often complain about bias - sometimes openly - but need here to realise that support follows actions, rather than preceding them.
8. Anti-Tory media bias. QUEEN OF PENTACLES - "The Queen becomes greedy, spiteful, estrangement, suspicious, demanding and full of complaints about the ingratitude of the world. She is blind to others' good intentions. Beware of succumbing to her oddly persuasive views."
Firstly, the media does have an inbuilt liberal bias and now that Labour have improved their standings in the polls - and at the polls - the media do not lionise the Tories nearly as much as they did before conference. In the second instance, it is Tory jealousy which is eating the Party, which means that the energy which should go into policy and its promotion is expended on a naked campaign against supposed bias which plays into the hands of corporate elements such as News International. The Tories need to realise the media is not going to give them the benefit of the doubt, particularly over scandals such as Yachtgate, until they become more pro-active and accept that bias tends to favour the party who are most in control of the agenda and use it to effectively politick their way into government.
9. Favourable movements. IV SWORDS - "A temporary relief from struggle. Use solitude to plan a way forward because the chances are that much will be demanded of you again soon. This can refer to either health or your personal life. Remember, with hindsight all the best achievements involve triumph over adversity."
The Four denotes a chance to reorientate the party and to repair broken parts of the machine in order to go forward properly with a more decisive and less timid manner. There is a break-off and a rupture implied, but the necessary "chrysalis" period is allowed and the party emerges ready for the potential that 2009 could be even better than 2008.
10. Unfavourable movements. V CUPS - "Unexpected news arrives, and possibly in the form of a surprise visit from an old friend who will lift your spirits and suggest new ideas and ways forward. They may also remind you of past events that you would rather forget, but try if you can to learn their lessons."
The Tories here are confronted by unforeseen realities and the difficulties inherent in the policy of excluding anyone redolent of past government or opposition are revealed. There is the need to face up to these problems and to find a solution which will re-energise the party to be able to go the few last miles towards Downing Street. Momentum needs to be generated to carry the party through this time, though this is not a sudden collapse, more the result of a puncture which may already have happened somewhere along the line gradually deflating morale and expectations. [Politics Home gives an interesting idea of the morale of the three parties and as Tory morale declines, Labour morale is up.]
11. Resources. THE HIEROPHANT - "Providing comfort, security, the wisdom of the ages and generosity in others' time of need are among the many virtues of the Hierophant that make him someone to turn to in troubled times. But inflexibility - a lack of openness to change - can often negate these virtues. Too great a reverence for the past can become hostility toward all change and then the Hierophant symbolises an obstacle to growth. He can also indicate marriage or other lasting union."
The Tories have historically relied on the gravitas of former government or Cabinet members to guide them back to power after Labour terms. Churchill, Heath and Thatcher created this trend, and Howard appeared to have the stature to head a cabinet but was unfortunately stymied by the ruthlessness of Blair. While the caveat expressed by the description reminds the Party not to suffocate growth and the next generation to a gerontocracy, the Party should begin to seek advice from its elder statesmen [unless they, like a BBC reporter talking about Menzies Campbell, believe being "statesmanlike" is a disadvantage] to form the backbone of a new government before they take the situation into their own hands as per the Five of Cups.
12. Obstacles. HAPPY EVER AFTER - denotes an extremely bad ending to a previous situation.
Ill-dignified this card suggests that there will at some point have to be a clean break and complete renewal of what has gone "off" with the current arrangements. The appearance of this card in a negative situation confirms a feeling that the omens have not been too good despite the surface tension of the party appearing calm and unbroken; it suggests an earthquake happening to derail the current situation and for it to need serious re-orientation if the party is to maintain its current standing nationally.
OUTCOMES
13. Direction. III WANDS - "Success and recognition are yours for the taking. Therefore this is a good time for beginning new long-term enterprises, especially in the fields of arts and crafts although it may be some time before the financial rewards come to you. Meanwhile, simply enjoy exercising your talents and have faith that others will equally enjoy what you do."
The trend is upwards - the previous disruptions notwithstanding. Coming through the breakdowns is going to be testing but the movement thereafter at least suggests that developments begin quickly after the restoration of the leadership's control and that the slow but steady nature of this tendency becomes more sustained and quickens in pace towards Christmas and beyond.
14. Trend. THE SUN - "Good fortune, material success, energy and joy are all promised by this card as whatever you undertake is blessed. New beginnings are suggested by the children and the sunflowers craning for the sky. This is a good time for new partnerships in all spheres of life and for refreshing your spirits through simple enjoyment of the good things on offer."
Fortune continues to shine on the Tories and develop and grow their electoral prospects. From the beginning of the Three the situation heats up and allows the Conservative Party to really begin to refresh itself after it has been through the previous stage of calamity and strife. Any breakdown is temporary and the power inherent in this card suggests that the Tories can look forward to solving problems that bedevil them for a while.
15. Solution. KING OF WANDS - "The King of Wands is a charming leader who is energetic, honest and generous. His fatherliness can tend towards being too trusting. Being naturally loyal and conscientious he is a great friend in times of trouble, being unafraid to take up arms in a good cause. In a spread he can represent either the attitude needed to address the situation, or the person you should turn to help."
This could represent the leadership after the next crisis has blown itself out. Whether or not it is a renewed and re-energised Cameron who still occupies the role depends on how he handles preceding developments or whether he is destroyed by them in the party's attempt to kickstart their revival, given that his cards in recent spreads have been problematic. There is a new potency here, an opportunism inherent in the King of Wands as opposed to the King of Pentacles' access to executive authority and the King of Cups' and the King of Swords' idealism and intellectualism respectively. This leader has the drive and focus necessary to fight the coming election whenever it is held.
16. Outcome. VII PENTACLES - "The Seven foretells a truly rewarding time. The possibilities before you are quite awesome, but do think in the long-term. Decide who you are and what you would like to be remembered for by your family and friends. The choices you face really are that important. Destiny is at work."
The Party has come a long way but there is still a long way to go to achieve an overall majority in an election. This is the card of sowing what you will later reap - after the solution of an opportunistic and aggressive re-orientation on the part of the leadership this brings the need to solidify and develop possibilities for government. In a sense there is a genuine development of substance after wasted opportunities in the past, and the development of an alternative programme to rival Labour's plans for government. Positive and genuine increases and gains after the watershed of the past cards has worked its way through.
