11 November 2008 - Populous poll puts Tory lead down to 6% - LABOUR and TORY readings

So much happening, so much to do. The Tory tax cut proposals were so derisory it hurt to read them. They may be good taken in isolation - but is this really stuff that should have been trailed for two days as Tory policy on tax cuts? I like the policy itself because it recognises that NI contributions become an indirect tax on jobs and under the Polish tax regime while I was out there in 2002-03, the rate of "ZUS" was so steep it was strangling huge numbers of new jobs and keeping earnings low, while the state did not benefit from high unemployment and the public sector was starved of funds.

So in principle I liked the idea of the policy. But it is far too little to benefit the average taxpayer or businesses during a recession which cannot in the first place afford to take on new employees. Like the VAT holiday Cameron proposed a few weeks ago it sounds good - but that policy turned out to be illegal under EU law.

What the Tories need is a really direct, focussed and consistent campaign promoting their whole raft of policies with the aim of stating their intentions on how they see themselves governing. Not just "looking at what needs to be done when we get in" - that presupposes they get in, and the latest poll lead would have them 20 seats short of an overall majority - and that's before Brown even calls an election. Campaigning on an "er...dunno...let me get back to you on that" slogan in front of a vastly more experienced and supple Labour propaganda machine will be similar to the manifesto Labour put up in 1983 - nicknamed "the longest suicide note in history".

The Tories need to sort out where their main clientele is. Does it watch Bloomberg or Sky One? Does it like fine wines or a pint down at the pub? Does it "do lunch" or go for a burger? They need to get a lot more populist, a lot more pragmatic, stop talking to the City and start listening to the people in the provinces. Otherwise Brown could announce another Marxist-Leninist revolution, storm the Winter Palace and raise the red flag over the Reichstag - and people would still vote for him. At his conference today he criticised the Tories for making unfunded tax cuts, and then later praised the idea of unfunded tax cuts later on.

It shouldn't be too difficult, should it?

Speaking of which...

LABOUR - 6% deficit in the polls - prospects for the moment.

S. Situation. IV CUPS - "The need to reach out for new friendships. In this card, the figure sits under a tree, looking into the cups - or friendships and relationships which they represent - but is failing to notice that another cup is being offered from out of the blue. This fourth cup, this un-expected offer of friendship or love, could well be what the figure is looking for."

Labour are given a boost by this after the weekend's disappointing result from ICM. This suggests that Glenrothes represented a definite shift in perception. The offer of sustenance is being offered to Labour - they still have to make the best use of it, but at least it is a good result for them to build on rather a pin to prick the Glenrothes bubble.

1. External appearances. IV PENTACLES - "Gathering coins together. The figure on the card is shown holding tightly onto a set of coins. Also a single coin rests on his head, suggesting that money matters now dominate his thinking completely."

For "money matters", read "government or executive authority". Labour are clinging tightly to a bounce and onto substantial gain - the Tory lead has been cut nine points from 15% to 6%) but are not yet ploughing ahead into an actual lead. They are grounded and focussed but not yet pro-actively striking at opponents (at least, that is what this card suggests). The foundations, however, of the Brown bounce are still there.

2. Internal discussions. V PENTACLES - "Shows unforeseen expenses. A very dfismal picture of poverty and also charity is given here. Again, as with other cards it may not show what is, but rather give a warning as to what could be unless steps are taken to avert it."

Labour are not here being distracted by false dawns, because there is a sense of proportion involved that holds them down to earth and makes sure they do not take leave of their senses. The Tories could still - with a 41% nominal share of the vote - win the most seats, though not now an overall majority. However, Labour still hold the levers of power and can use them to their advantage. The focus on the need for more improvement thus means that they will be making no hasty moves based on "ifs" and "buts" just yet.

3. Obstacles. II CUPS - "Either a new relationship or a new phase of an existing relationship."

The public do not love Brown and do not see him as the person to actually lead them forward, despite seeing him more in charge of economic arguments than his Tory counterparts. There is still ill-feeling inherent in this which may account for subconscious difficulties arising in the Five of Pentacles.

4. Overcoming obstacles. IX CUPS - "Experiencing life as a celebration. The figure in this card is clearly at the centre of a celebration, rejoicing their good fortune. If, in the querent's life there is little for them to be happy about, then this card would encourage them to look for things - small things maybe - over which they can begin to count themselves lucky."

The generosity which this card represents is akin to "sharing the proceeds of growth" in political economics. While the Ten of Cups represents lasting harmony and success in this area, the Nine is more immediately gratifying and seeing where there is still animosity is helpful to Labour, who are able to dispense things like tax cuts or concrete benefits, as opposed to the Opposition's hypothecating approach, exemplified by today's policy speech by David Cameron. Sharing the dividends in the short term, even if paid for later, would help out in any election.

5. Direction. IX PENTACLES - "Gaining recognition, in one's own and others' estimation. The figure here stands dressed with a beautiful set of medallions around their chest. Reminiscent of the golden medallions awarded to athletes at Olympic competitions, it suggests the achievement of honours or recognition as the direct result of the individual's own efforts and abilities."

Labour may not have developed the two Nines all the way back into the permanent Tens, but at least for now a modicum of stability prevails as Labour begin to understad public dissatisfaction and seek to remedy it in the short term. This translates the Nine of Cups - ideas and promises - into Pentacles - substantial developments, delivery of promises, and the cultivation of authority to reassert the bounce's current magic.

6. Solution. PAGE OF SWORDS - "This figure shows a young, inexperienced boy about to rush into a situation of conflict, armed only with a toy sword. The most he can achieve is that of getting himself into trouble. Don't rush into battle - and don't rush into other people's battles either."

Labour should not use this one poll as an excuse to be reckless or profligate, or appear naive and simplistic. This is an odd card to appear in the spread of such an experienced and stable operator such as Brown's Labour, but since this is not advice, rather a development which will occur naturally, this must be a rash act which undermines the previous two cards and prevents them providing the lasting stability of either Ten, as discussed above in 5.

7. Outcome. V WANDS - "Conflict. Stiff competition. Push through this with very strong determination."

One of Gordon's secondary totems is Ox (he is actually a Pheasant spirit, but he has had many life-times to develop and balance the flighty pheasant nature with sturdy Ox and supple Seal) and this bullishness will help him forge ahead through more difficulties. The outcome here is unclear - not yet on the "radar" but it suggests he will begin to fight hard to promote things that will be unpalatable to others but necessary for economic stability, or have to deal with more equivocal results than he hoped for. Nonetheless this card forecasts a period of strong hand-to-hand combat and Brown does not shrink from fights, thereby any wrestling will strengthen him somewhat or provide a useful object lesson for him at the very worst.

CONSERVATIVES - 6% lead in the polls - prospects for the moment.

S. Situation. QUEEN OF CUPS - "In a woman's cards, it would generally show either her, or a woman significant in her life in an emotional sense. In a man's cards, it would show either a significant woman or the "female" (receptive) side of his personality."

The Tories' receptivity to this poll is significant - it has been noticed and has drawn them up short. Cameron displayed a diffident and rather rattled face when he was quizzed about it during his presentation this morning on "tax cuts". So it has struck the Tories fairly hard that there is a problem. Receptivity brings understanding and action, so the impact has been quite substantial.

1. External appearances. KNIGHT OF WANDS - "Dynamic male energy. If it represents a person, it would show the querent or someone with whom they are connected in some area of activity. If it represents a process, it indicates the need for a high level of energy in order to handle the tasks at hand."

The Tories are pushing hard outwards and trying to justify or rationalise the result. They are making it look as if it has spurred them into action and are also suggesting that it shows Cameron in a better light than Brown as a forward-thinking leader. They are however questioning the methodology of the poll, a refuge for the scoundrel, while ignoring equally valid concerns about the ICM poll on Sunday which had them 13% ahead. A combination of legitimate posturing and insinuations which ill-become a rattled leadership. 

2. Internal discussions. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Abundance is the keyword here but it is directly related to your faith, your hope, your optimisms. The need to think on a bigger scale, to think not just of the next project. A person ultimately gets only what they truly expect. So let's make your expectations higher, so that we can get some bigger and better results."

The Tories should hope that this development should provoke them out of their complacency and allows them to explore more lasting ways of putting out their statement of aims and part of a manifesto. They need to be aware that they are reaping waht they have sown and that this represents a shift in the political narrative away from their hegemony and dominance of the agenda. This debate is currently important on Conservative Home, for example, and needs to reach its logical conclusion ASAP.

3. Obstacles. II PENTACLES - "The same kind of work, but movement is shown here onto or into something else. More of a sideways transition. Often shows as a transfer of some kind."

The political agenda is beginning to move against the Tories with the narrative eroding their previous leads as Brown reasserts control. This haemmorhage needs to be stopped by something bolder and less restrained than current output, particularly as the poll was taken after the Glenrothes result became known. This movement can be halted but the Tories must do it soon while they can still salvage a win on popular vote and at least a minority government (though this is a rare event at a general election and likely to produce a Labour or Conservative government with a small majority).

4. Overcoming the obstacles. IV PENTACLES - "Gathering coins together. The figure on the card is shown holding tightly onto a set of coins. Also a single coin rests on his head, suggesting that money matters now dominate his thinking completely."

The Tories are holding tightly to the few good points of the poll, trying to plug some of the leaks inherent in this result. They are concentrating on the details but are not thinking confidently about the wider picture or able to rise above bad results such as this. It is difficult for them to juggle these "coins", representing concrete benefits acquired over the last year, and the card's meaning often relates to defensiveness and possessiveness stemming here from a lack of confidence.

5. Direction. IV CUPS - "The need to reach out for new friendships. In this card, the figure sits under a tree, looking into the cups - or friendships and relationships which they represent - but is failing to notice that another cup is being offered from out of the blue. This fourth cup, this un-expected offer of friendship or love, could well be what the figure is looking for."

The Tories may be presented with a solution fairly soon - not wholly a bad one, but it would come from someone outside the current slate or from beyond Cameron's horizons. It may be welcome or not, but it would represent something that will help the immediate decay and erosion of the lead and keep the Tories upright without too much temporal disruption or damage to electoral prospects. However it may well represent a fundamental challenge to existing structures or leadership and may therefore be rejected.

6. Solution. VIII PENTACLES - "Skills properly applied. This card is similar in some way to the Three of Pentacles, in that it shows the same working tools being applied. Only here we have them being utilised in a far more professional manner than in the Three, where the figure was just beginning to get to grips with them. From the face of the man we see that he now has a beard, showing maturity, while in the background he has amassed a small stockpile of Pentacles which he has displayed on the wall behind him."

The Tories begin to construct something solid, but use their untapped reservoir of older and more experienced talent to do this properly rather than just relying on current "Cameroon" spin and bluster, or addressing the business community exclusively without playing more to the gallery of public opinion. They do end up sorting this out, but it will take a lot of work to reconstruct the Party along the lines needed for government.

7. Outcome. VI PENTACLES - "Rewarding on the basis of merit. Sharing is the theme here. But how do we go about rewarding fairly? This card would also look at how we choose to share our time and energy with others, between ourselves as individuals and our family, and so on."

The Tories begin to overcome the inertia currently handicapping them and produce solid political gains and progress back upwards. They have to go through the process described in the Four of Pentacles and Eight of Pentacles, including recognising the weaknesses and restructuring their front-bench and message so they are better positioned to capitalise on the current situation. To do this they need to accept and receive advice and assistance, and be as open to this process as the Queen of Pentacles is in the overall situation.