Parliament of Fowls

"[David Cameron] urged Prime Minister Gordon Brown to adopt the plan immediately, in order to prevent the numbers out of work from soaring further from its current level of 1.79 million."

What on earth is the point of being the Leader of the Opposition if you are going to give the Prime Minister suggestions how to run the government?

Vulpes vulpes has gone mad. The hounds are getting closer...

So much happening, so much to do. The Tory tax cut proposals were so derisory it hurt to read them. They may be good taken in isolation - but is this really stuff that should have been trailed for two days as Tory policy on tax cuts? I like the policy itself because it recognises that NI contributions become an indirect tax on jobs and under the Polish tax regime while I was out there in 2002-03, the rate of "ZUS" was so steep it was strangling huge numbers of new jobs and keeping earnings low, while the state did not benefit from high unemployment and the public sector was starved of funds.

So in principle I liked the idea of the policy. But it is far too little to benefit the average taxpayer or businesses during a recession which cannot in the first place afford to take on new employees. Like the VAT holiday Cameron proposed a few weeks ago it sounds good - but that policy turned out to be illegal under EU law.

What the Tories need is a really direct, focussed and consistent campaign promoting their whole raft of policies with the aim of stating their intentions on how they see themselves governing. Not just "looking at what needs to be done when we get in" - that presupposes they get in, and the latest poll lead would have them 20 seats short of an overall majority - and that's before Brown even calls an election. Campaigning on an "er...dunno...let me get back to you on that" slogan in front of a vastly more experienced and supple Labour propaganda machine will be similar to the manifesto Labour put up in 1983 - nicknamed "the longest suicide note in history".

The Tories need to sort out where their main clientele is. Does it watch Bloomberg or Sky One? Does it like fine wines or a pint down at the pub? Does it "do lunch" or go for a burger? They need to get a lot more populist, a lot more pragmatic, stop talking to the City and start listening to the people in the provinces. Otherwise Brown could announce another Marxist-Leninist revolution, storm the Winter Palace and raise the red flag over the Reichstag - and people would still vote for him. At his conference today he criticised the Tories for making unfunded tax cuts, and then later praised the idea of unfunded tax cuts later on.

It shouldn't be too difficult, should it?

Speaking of which...

LABOUR - 6% deficit in the polls - prospects for the moment.

S. Situation. IV CUPS - "The need to reach out for new friendships. In this card, the figure sits under a tree, looking into the cups - or friendships and relationships which they represent - but is failing to notice that another cup is being offered from out of the blue. This fourth cup, this un-expected offer of friendship or love, could well be what the figure is looking for."

Labour are given a boost by this after the weekend's disappointing result from ICM. This suggests that Glenrothes represented a definite shift in perception. The offer of sustenance is being offered to Labour - they still have to make the best use of it, but at least it is a good result for them to build on rather a pin to prick the Glenrothes bubble.

1. External appearances. IV PENTACLES - "Gathering coins together. The figure on the card is shown holding tightly onto a set of coins. Also a single coin rests on his head, suggesting that money matters now dominate his thinking completely."

For "money matters", read "government or executive authority". Labour are clinging tightly to a bounce and onto substantial gain - the Tory lead has been cut nine points from 15% to 6%) but are not yet ploughing ahead into an actual lead. They are grounded and focussed but not yet pro-actively striking at opponents (at least, that is what this card suggests). The foundations, however, of the Brown bounce are still there.

2. Internal discussions. V PENTACLES - "Shows unforeseen expenses. A very dfismal picture of poverty and also charity is given here. Again, as with other cards it may not show what is, but rather give a warning as to what could be unless steps are taken to avert it."

Labour are not here being distracted by false dawns, because there is a sense of proportion involved that holds them down to earth and makes sure they do not take leave of their senses. The Tories could still - with a 41% nominal share of the vote - win the most seats, though not now an overall majority. However, Labour still hold the levers of power and can use them to their advantage. The focus on the need for more improvement thus means that they will be making no hasty moves based on "ifs" and "buts" just yet.

3. Obstacles. II CUPS - "Either a new relationship or a new phase of an existing relationship."

The public do not love Brown and do not see him as the person to actually lead them forward, despite seeing him more in charge of economic arguments than his Tory counterparts. There is still ill-feeling inherent in this which may account for subconscious difficulties arising in the Five of Pentacles.

4. Overcoming obstacles. IX CUPS - "Experiencing life as a celebration. The figure in this card is clearly at the centre of a celebration, rejoicing their good fortune. If, in the querent's life there is little for them to be happy about, then this card would encourage them to look for things - small things maybe - over which they can begin to count themselves lucky."

The generosity which this card represents is akin to "sharing the proceeds of growth" in political economics. While the Ten of Cups represents lasting harmony and success in this area, the Nine is more immediately gratifying and seeing where there is still animosity is helpful to Labour, who are able to dispense things like tax cuts or concrete benefits, as opposed to the Opposition's hypothecating approach, exemplified by today's policy speech by David Cameron. Sharing the dividends in the short term, even if paid for later, would help out in any election.

5. Direction. IX PENTACLES - "Gaining recognition, in one's own and others' estimation. The figure here stands dressed with a beautiful set of medallions around their chest. Reminiscent of the golden medallions awarded to athletes at Olympic competitions, it suggests the achievement of honours or recognition as the direct result of the individual's own efforts and abilities."

Labour may not have developed the two Nines all the way back into the permanent Tens, but at least for now a modicum of stability prevails as Labour begin to understad public dissatisfaction and seek to remedy it in the short term. This translates the Nine of Cups - ideas and promises - into Pentacles - substantial developments, delivery of promises, and the cultivation of authority to reassert the bounce's current magic.

6. Solution. PAGE OF SWORDS - "This figure shows a young, inexperienced boy about to rush into a situation of conflict, armed only with a toy sword. The most he can achieve is that of getting himself into trouble. Don't rush into battle - and don't rush into other people's battles either."

Labour should not use this one poll as an excuse to be reckless or profligate, or appear naive and simplistic. This is an odd card to appear in the spread of such an experienced and stable operator such as Brown's Labour, but since this is not advice, rather a development which will occur naturally, this must be a rash act which undermines the previous two cards and prevents them providing the lasting stability of either Ten, as discussed above in 5.

7. Outcome. V WANDS - "Conflict. Stiff competition. Push through this with very strong determination."

One of Gordon's secondary totems is Ox (he is actually a Pheasant spirit, but he has had many life-times to develop and balance the flighty pheasant nature with sturdy Ox and supple Seal) and this bullishness will help him forge ahead through more difficulties. The outcome here is unclear - not yet on the "radar" but it suggests he will begin to fight hard to promote things that will be unpalatable to others but necessary for economic stability, or have to deal with more equivocal results than he hoped for. Nonetheless this card forecasts a period of strong hand-to-hand combat and Brown does not shrink from fights, thereby any wrestling will strengthen him somewhat or provide a useful object lesson for him at the very worst.

CONSERVATIVES - 6% lead in the polls - prospects for the moment.

S. Situation. QUEEN OF CUPS - "In a woman's cards, it would generally show either her, or a woman significant in her life in an emotional sense. In a man's cards, it would show either a significant woman or the "female" (receptive) side of his personality."

The Tories' receptivity to this poll is significant - it has been noticed and has drawn them up short. Cameron displayed a diffident and rather rattled face when he was quizzed about it during his presentation this morning on "tax cuts". So it has struck the Tories fairly hard that there is a problem. Receptivity brings understanding and action, so the impact has been quite substantial.

1. External appearances. KNIGHT OF WANDS - "Dynamic male energy. If it represents a person, it would show the querent or someone with whom they are connected in some area of activity. If it represents a process, it indicates the need for a high level of energy in order to handle the tasks at hand."

The Tories are pushing hard outwards and trying to justify or rationalise the result. They are making it look as if it has spurred them into action and are also suggesting that it shows Cameron in a better light than Brown as a forward-thinking leader. They are however questioning the methodology of the poll, a refuge for the scoundrel, while ignoring equally valid concerns about the ICM poll on Sunday which had them 13% ahead. A combination of legitimate posturing and insinuations which ill-become a rattled leadership. 

2. Internal discussions. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Abundance is the keyword here but it is directly related to your faith, your hope, your optimisms. The need to think on a bigger scale, to think not just of the next project. A person ultimately gets only what they truly expect. So let's make your expectations higher, so that we can get some bigger and better results."

The Tories should hope that this development should provoke them out of their complacency and allows them to explore more lasting ways of putting out their statement of aims and part of a manifesto. They need to be aware that they are reaping waht they have sown and that this represents a shift in the political narrative away from their hegemony and dominance of the agenda. This debate is currently important on Conservative Home, for example, and needs to reach its logical conclusion ASAP.

3. Obstacles. II PENTACLES - "The same kind of work, but movement is shown here onto or into something else. More of a sideways transition. Often shows as a transfer of some kind."

The political agenda is beginning to move against the Tories with the narrative eroding their previous leads as Brown reasserts control. This haemmorhage needs to be stopped by something bolder and less restrained than current output, particularly as the poll was taken after the Glenrothes result became known. This movement can be halted but the Tories must do it soon while they can still salvage a win on popular vote and at least a minority government (though this is a rare event at a general election and likely to produce a Labour or Conservative government with a small majority).

4. Overcoming the obstacles. IV PENTACLES - "Gathering coins together. The figure on the card is shown holding tightly onto a set of coins. Also a single coin rests on his head, suggesting that money matters now dominate his thinking completely."

The Tories are holding tightly to the few good points of the poll, trying to plug some of the leaks inherent in this result. They are concentrating on the details but are not thinking confidently about the wider picture or able to rise above bad results such as this. It is difficult for them to juggle these "coins", representing concrete benefits acquired over the last year, and the card's meaning often relates to defensiveness and possessiveness stemming here from a lack of confidence.

5. Direction. IV CUPS - "The need to reach out for new friendships. In this card, the figure sits under a tree, looking into the cups - or friendships and relationships which they represent - but is failing to notice that another cup is being offered from out of the blue. This fourth cup, this un-expected offer of friendship or love, could well be what the figure is looking for."

The Tories may be presented with a solution fairly soon - not wholly a bad one, but it would come from someone outside the current slate or from beyond Cameron's horizons. It may be welcome or not, but it would represent something that will help the immediate decay and erosion of the lead and keep the Tories upright without too much temporal disruption or damage to electoral prospects. However it may well represent a fundamental challenge to existing structures or leadership and may therefore be rejected.

6. Solution. VIII PENTACLES - "Skills properly applied. This card is similar in some way to the Three of Pentacles, in that it shows the same working tools being applied. Only here we have them being utilised in a far more professional manner than in the Three, where the figure was just beginning to get to grips with them. From the face of the man we see that he now has a beard, showing maturity, while in the background he has amassed a small stockpile of Pentacles which he has displayed on the wall behind him."

The Tories begin to construct something solid, but use their untapped reservoir of older and more experienced talent to do this properly rather than just relying on current "Cameroon" spin and bluster, or addressing the business community exclusively without playing more to the gallery of public opinion. They do end up sorting this out, but it will take a lot of work to reconstruct the Party along the lines needed for government.

7. Outcome. VI PENTACLES - "Rewarding on the basis of merit. Sharing is the theme here. But how do we go about rewarding fairly? This card would also look at how we choose to share our time and energy with others, between ourselves as individuals and our family, and so on."

The Tories begin to overcome the inertia currently handicapping them and produce solid political gains and progress back upwards. They have to go through the process described in the Four of Pentacles and Eight of Pentacles, including recognising the weaknesses and restructuring their front-bench and message so they are better positioned to capitalise on the current situation. To do this they need to accept and receive advice and assistance, and be as open to this process as the Queen of Pentacles is in the overall situation.

Continuing the series on overall party developments over the next month. I will look at the tax details later on but for the moment I have this second part to write up and the Populous poll to comment on.

NB This was all written before the poll with the 6% lead came out. I write each reading out longhand before I post them to the blog to make sure that I can draft things in peace without juggling two or three books or the cards themselves on my cluttered desk.

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY 10 November - 20 December

INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

S. Situation. VII CUPS - "Daydreaming threatens to distract you from pressing decisions that need to be made soon from pressing decisions that need to be made soon if you want to realise your hopes. Imagination is a wonderful faculty, but there is always a danger of it degenerating into mere wishful thinking. Divide your plans into distinct practical stages so that you can tell when they start to stray too far from reality."

The Tories need to become aware that they are taking far too much for granted at this point in time. Poll projections are only relevant if they would translate into actual election results rather than just being a snapshot of public opinion at a certain point in time. (More relevant would be polls taken after an election has been called or at least programmed in to the situation and expected at a certain time. Neil Kinnock found out that even exit polls can be misleading.) The Tories need to strip away the veneer of 13% poll leads and examine actualities in more detail, or at least regard the election as not already in the bag and act accordingly.

1. External appearances. PAGE OF CUPS - "The Page of Cups is the ideal student, patient, receptive, docile, and eager to learn. Often the card represents the need for such an attitude if you are to progress. There are times for assertion and times for humility, and this is one of them. If it represents another person, it means someone nearby is willing to learn from you, although they may be too shy to ask."

The leadership is boyish and eager to be seen to be doing things, but this could have undertones of naivete, puerility (Osborne's new attempt to challenge Peter Mandelson to a duel, for example) and coming across as learning on the job rather than laying down the foundations for a secure government. They are innocent and idealistic, but this is a double-edged sword when dealing with the "big boys" such as Brown, Darling and Mandelson.

2. Internal movements. IX PENTACLES - "You are likely to receive substantial reward for your accomplishments and you will be able to afford to relax and enjoy your more contemplative inclinations. Don't shut out your family and friends, however, because they have had to put up with your darker words and have probably helped you through them much more than you know."

The Conservatives have a certain stability here which was lacking prior to Cameron's appointment; this internal consistency balances them and gives an underlying confidence missing from previous leaderships. However, this could ossify into complacency and coupled with the Seven of Cups it suggests that the Nine may be predicated on illusions of poll stability that Brown may seek to exploit with greater innovation and radicalism than Cameron is expecting or can match.

3. Roots of the situation. THE HIGH PRIESTESS - "Inspiration, learning, mystery, understanding of the inner workings of life, enlightenment and serenity are all represented by this card, with a hint that serenity can sometimes lead to emotional detachment from daily events. Often this card implies that hidden spiritual factors are currently affecting your life, so look carefully within, or consult a respected advisor."

There is a stability here which echoes the Nine of Pentacles and suggests that the Tories believe they are sitting on a solid poll lead, given that Brown has not eroded this deeper into single figures [as of yesterday afternoon] than 8% ahead. There is a feeling of depth here which may be deceptive given the appearance of the Seven of Cups; however there is some way that the Tories have moved away from divisive internal debates and towards more of a pact based on attaining power at the next election.

4. Consequences of the situation. II PENTACLES - "Difficulty and embarrassment at the beginning of a new business venture is suggested by this card, but the prospects are very promising if you are prepared to put in the hard work and resist making reckless gambles. Times of change like this are full of opportunity but also risk, so be prepared for a rollercoaster of a journey!"

Changes in this healthy looking situation [such as a poll haemmorhage fully taking into account the events of Glenrothes], but slower and more obvious than those which could destabilise the leadership completely. However, this change could well be damaging and could lead to necessary adjustments in the strategy or team rather than outright leadership challenges. There will be slippage here unless the Tories realise that they are being deluded by false polls about the likelihood of achieving current ratings during an election campaign and begin to be more pro-active and less complacent.

EXTERNAL FACTORS AND MEANS TO AN END

5. Advice. IX CUPS - "Victory and success come your way as several long-held dreams come true. Share your good luck with others and it will be multiplied. This is a good time for looking forward and making fresh plans for the future, because your confidence will be infectious. Several new and stimulating friends are likely to enter your life."

The Tories need to keep on generating ideas which are easily understood at the most basic level. As an advice card, this suggests the Tory leadership should carry on putting out their plans for office and be lavish and generous with the publicity in order to make themselves accessible to the general public and prove that they are the ones who can give Britain the abundance this card represents.

6. Warning. TEMPERANCE - "Disunion, overwork, competing interests, dissipation, restlessness and waste can all lead to a feeling of exhaustion. Nothing seems to have any real meaning and if the mood persists long enough, friends will begin to fall away. The past feels like a burden because you are unable to learn from it."

There have been difficult cards throughout recent Tory spreads, and the Tories must not now succumb to the itch that has caused the downfall of three previous leaderships. Disloyalty is likely to focus on the sense that Cameron and Osborne are squandering their poll leads and that the representatives of the official line - Louise Bagshawe in particular - do not take discussions seriously, nor seem to absorb problems in the system until it may be too late.

7. Pro-Tory media bias. THE MOON - "A choice needs to be made that could determine your happiness for a long time ahead. You need to be guided by intuition and feelings when making this choice, but at the same time there is a real danger of delusion, of being misled by wishful thinking or by someone whose judgement you trust. Times like this are true tests of character and your grasp on reality."

The media are hedging their bets, basing their support on actual events rather than pledging unswerving loyalty to a particular party. The Moon traditionally shows that answers are hidden and only revealed when the time is right. The media is neither pro- nor anti-Tory, but bases its support or bias on the way the wind is blowing. The Tories often complain about bias - sometimes openly - but need here to realise that support follows actions, rather than preceding them.

8. Anti-Tory media bias. QUEEN OF PENTACLES - "The Queen becomes greedy, spiteful, estrangement, suspicious, demanding and full of complaints about the ingratitude of the world. She is blind to others' good intentions. Beware of succumbing to her oddly persuasive views."

Firstly, the media does have an inbuilt liberal bias and now that Labour have improved their standings in the polls - and at the polls - the media do not lionise the Tories nearly as much as they did before conference. In the second instance, it is Tory jealousy which is eating the Party, which means that the energy which should go into policy and its promotion is expended on a naked campaign against supposed bias which plays into the hands of corporate elements such as News International. The Tories need to realise the media is not going to give them the benefit of the doubt, particularly over scandals such as Yachtgate, until they become more pro-active and accept that bias tends to favour the party who are most in control of the agenda and use it to effectively politick their way into government.

9. Favourable movements. IV SWORDS - "A temporary relief from struggle. Use solitude to plan a way forward because the chances are that much will be demanded of you again soon. This can refer to either health or your personal life. Remember, with hindsight all the best achievements involve triumph over adversity."

The Four denotes a chance to reorientate the party and to repair broken parts of the machine in order to go forward properly with a more decisive and less timid manner. There is a break-off and a rupture implied, but the necessary "chrysalis" period is allowed and the party emerges ready for the potential that 2009 could be even better than 2008.

10. Unfavourable movements. V CUPS - "Unexpected news arrives, and possibly in the form of a surprise visit from an old friend who will lift your spirits and suggest new ideas and ways forward. They may also remind you of past events that you would rather forget, but try if you can to learn their lessons."

The Tories here are confronted by unforeseen realities and the difficulties inherent in the policy of excluding anyone redolent of past government or opposition are revealed. There is the need to face up to these problems and to find a solution which will re-energise the party to be able to go the few last miles towards Downing Street. Momentum needs to be generated to carry the party through this time, though this is not a sudden collapse, more the result of a puncture which may already have happened somewhere along the line gradually deflating morale and expectations. [Politics Home gives an interesting idea of the morale of the three parties and as Tory morale declines, Labour morale is up.]

11. Resources. THE HIEROPHANT - "Providing comfort, security, the wisdom of the ages and generosity in others' time of need are among the many virtues of the Hierophant that make him someone to turn to in troubled times. But inflexibility - a lack of openness to change - can often negate these virtues. Too great a reverence for the past can become hostility toward all change and then the Hierophant symbolises an obstacle to growth. He can also indicate marriage or other lasting union."

The Tories have historically relied on the gravitas of former government or Cabinet members to guide them back to power after Labour terms. Churchill, Heath and Thatcher created this trend, and Howard appeared to have the stature to head a cabinet but was unfortunately stymied by the ruthlessness of Blair. While the caveat expressed by the description reminds the Party not to suffocate growth and the next generation to a gerontocracy, the Party should begin to seek advice from its elder statesmen [unless they, like a BBC reporter talking about Menzies Campbell, believe being "statesmanlike" is a disadvantage] to form the backbone of a new government before they take the situation into their own hands as per the Five of Cups.

12. Obstacles. HAPPY EVER AFTER - denotes an extremely bad ending to a previous situation.

Ill-dignified this card suggests that there will at some point have to be a clean break and complete renewal of what has gone "off" with the current arrangements. The appearance of this card in a negative situation confirms a feeling that the omens have not been too good despite the surface tension of the party appearing calm and unbroken; it suggests an earthquake happening to derail the current situation and for it to need serious re-orientation if the party is to maintain its current standing nationally.

OUTCOMES

13. Direction. III WANDS - "Success and recognition are yours for the taking. Therefore this is a good time for beginning new long-term enterprises, especially in the fields of arts and crafts although it may be some time before the financial rewards come to you. Meanwhile, simply enjoy exercising your talents and have faith that others will equally enjoy what you do."

The trend is upwards - the previous disruptions notwithstanding. Coming through the breakdowns is going to be testing but the movement thereafter at least suggests that developments begin quickly after the restoration of the leadership's control and that the slow but steady nature of this tendency becomes more sustained and quickens in pace towards Christmas and beyond.

14. Trend. THE SUN - "Good fortune, material success, energy and joy are all promised by this card as whatever you undertake is blessed. New beginnings are suggested by the children and the sunflowers craning for the sky. This is a good time for new partnerships in all spheres of life and for refreshing your spirits through simple enjoyment of the good things on offer."

Fortune continues to shine on the Tories and develop and grow their electoral prospects. From the beginning of the Three the situation heats up and allows the Conservative Party to really begin to refresh itself after it has been through the previous stage of calamity and strife. Any breakdown is temporary and the power inherent in this card suggests that the Tories can look forward to solving problems that bedevil them for a while.

15. Solution. KING OF WANDS - "The King of Wands is a charming leader who is energetic, honest and generous. His fatherliness can tend towards being too trusting. Being naturally loyal and conscientious he is a great friend in times of trouble, being unafraid to take up arms in a good cause. In a spread he can represent either the attitude needed to address the situation, or the person you should turn to help."

This could represent the leadership after the next crisis has blown itself out. Whether or not it is a renewed and re-energised Cameron who still occupies the role depends on how he handles preceding developments or whether he is destroyed by them in the party's attempt to kickstart their revival, given that his cards in recent spreads have been problematic. There is a new potency here, an opportunism inherent in the King of Wands as opposed to the King of Pentacles' access to executive authority and the King of Cups' and the King of Swords' idealism and intellectualism respectively. This leader has the drive and focus necessary to fight the coming election whenever it is held.

16. Outcome. VII PENTACLES - "The Seven foretells a truly rewarding time. The possibilities before you are quite awesome, but do think in the long-term. Decide who you are and what you would like to be remembered for by your family and friends. The choices you face really are that important. Destiny is at work."

The Party has come a long way but there is still a long way to go to achieve an overall majority in an election. This is the card of sowing what you will later reap - after the solution of an opportunistic and aggressive re-orientation on the part of the leadership this brings the need to solidify and develop possibilities for government. In a sense there is a genuine development of substance after wasted opportunities in the past, and the development of an alternative programme to rival Labour's plans for government. Positive and genuine increases and gains after the watershed of the past cards has worked its way through.