I thought it was time to detach my readings from events, because it seems odd to have the Tories stumble on the "right answer" and suddenly turn out to be a disappointment and heartbreak regardless of the positives of them stating their policy on tax.

Thus I am doing two spreads which look at the two main parties and how they will orientate themselves, use the means available to them, and emerge over the period leading up to this 24-day Christmas recess Harman is giving them. Before that we still have a month to six weeks of "he-said-she-said" and so I want to ask - how will this play out for the two main leaderships, Brown and Cameron.

Starting here with Labour, and will post the Conservative spread anon.

LABOUR PARTY 10 November - 20 December

INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS S. Situation. VIII CUPS - "Restlessness causes you to question many aspects of your life and possibly with good cause, as maybe it is time for some major changes. But remember that it is your own restlessness and need for a sense of purpose that is driving you. Others will not appreciate being blamed for what is basically your problem."

Labour are trying to establish a new programme and sense of purpose with which to go forward now that the worst seems to be over. The former difficulties are however not entirely dissipating and the Brown bounce has not yet taken them back into the lead. However this is good in that restlessness always generates movement and search for better combinations and if Labour can keep itself steady but dynamic this should give them forward momentum.

1. External appearances. THE HIGH PRIESTESS - "Inspiration, learning, mystery, understanding of the inner workings of life, enlightenment and serenity are all represented by this card, with a hint that serenity can sometimes lead to emotional detachment from daily events. Often this card implies that hidden spiritual factors are currently affecting your life, so look carefully within, or consult a respected advisor."

Labour are projecting a relaxed but opaque face to the world, as if they are not panicking enough to rock the government further, nor betraying any of the restlessness that they face in S. The balanced, neutral and even confident exterior is at least a change from running around in a frenzy of questioning Brown's leadership or government strategy; Brown to me had this face turned towards the world even at the nadir of his popularity. Still waters may run deep, but this is only the public face.

2. Internal movements. KNIGHT OF CUPS - "The Knight of Cups is romantic, loyal, generous, friendly, thoughtful and idealistic. He inspires new ventures in both the romantic and practical fields without expecting much in return. This Knight is happiest when embarked upon some great spiritual quest like that of the Holy Grail. He signals the possibility of an idealistic new venture coming your way, possibly from an old friend."

The Knight suggests Labour is reaching deep into its policy-making expertise to try and find some more innovation to solve the current financial crises. The demands from Labour MPs for Gordon Brown to reduce taxation is surprising in the context of their Keynesian ideology but it may be a sign of flexibility and nuanced preparedness to try hard to maintain power and pre-empt opponents' own discussions. The Cups symbolise ideas and idealism rather than practical or executive considerations but this still shows a willingness to move into hitherto taboos areas.

3. Roots of the situation. "HAPPILY EVER AFTER" - denotes an extremely good ending to a previous situation.

The appearance of the "extra" card in the Dragon Tarot pack symbolises an ending of a happy and even transcendent/sublime nature. This appears to be the Glenrothes result, which exceeded expectations - despite being a solid safe seat, Labour had already lost 2 this year and may have lost a third. Therefore the intensely positive nature of this card shows the roots of Labour's restlessness are positive, energising factors and not dissatisfaction or discomfort.

4. Consequences of the situation. VI SWORDS - "The Six represents unexpected developments, possibly a journey or business opportunity that will open the way to realising your ambitions in surprising way. Leap at the chance whatever the immediate obstacles; this is not the time for hesitation or counting the pennies. In the long term it will feel worthwhile."

Labour are generating ideas but they are risky and they need to be fully implemented to have the desired effect. Taking Tory policies has previously been a case of piecemeal implementation - enough to defuse a potential vote-winner but not enough to realise the spirit of the enterprise the Tories envisaged (for example, Brown took a blanket £500 rebate on council tax bills for the over-65s and made it into a £250 rebate, for one year, only available on application). Labour are now gambling on direct and concrete implementation of daring thinking for a left-wing Prime Minister and could reap the rewards while the Tories are more hesitant.

EXTERNAL FACTORS AND MEANS TO AN END

5. Advice. TEMPERANCE - "Discipline, patience, restraint and thoughtfulness lead to happiness and quiet success. Creativity and contentment go hand in hand. This is not a card of fame and glory, but of the simple pleasures of daily life properly appreciated. It represents compromise in its most creative sense, and the ideal conditions for raising a family or cultivating a long-term career."

Labour need to take it steadily and not try and bid recklessly or squander resources trying to out-bid the Tories. Maintaining balance and poise should leave them able to think before they make promises they cannot keep in order to be able to keep the books balanced. Outfoxing the Tories should be a priority, but not at the expense of common sense.

6. Warning. PAGE OF PENTACLES - "The dreaminess of the upright Page becomes a curse and the Page tries to compensate by becoming prickly and demanding over things that do not really matter, lacking any true sense of proportion. He becomes unreliable and selfish."

Brown should not become complacent that the Tories are not going to be killed off by current events and that he still does not have enough slack in the system to waste. He has never been bad at making good policy but he needs to be warned that his bounce cannot be taken for granted - as in the recent ICM poll - and he must tighten, not slacken the pace if he wants to restore his leadership to the levels of his mid-2007 popularity

7. Pro-Labour media bias. VI CUPS - "Nostalgia is likely to affect you as you become aware of just how many current events have their roots way back in your distant past. This is healthy up to a point because you will soon face a major life choice, and drawing upon the lessons of the past can help ensure that you make the right decision in the near future. Also, seek the advice of good friends."

Labour can be assured of a certain institutionalised loyalty and the media could be forgiven to returning to a generally favourable level of coverage in the wake of several fairly good weeks and a narrowing Tory lead. The media are more balanced since Blair left office and stopped hypnotising the right-wing press, but can be relied upon to predicate their support on subconscious loyalty rather than the scepticism and disbelief that accompanied previous Tory leads (for example, after the accession of Michael Howard in 2003).

8. Anti-Labour media bias. II SWORDS - "An old enemy or rival offers a truce, but they are not being completely honest. Falsehood and duplicity are suggested by this card, and someone will let you down. Tread carefully - have several escape routes planned."

Labour cannot take the natural bias completely for granted - Cameron came into office determined to court the media, not disdain it as Michael Howard did in 2003-05 (Howard apparently considered the use of the media to highlight defections from Labour a cheap trick and beneath his dignity as a Conservative leader; instead of making play of direct switchers the Tories ignored the possibility of promoting them. I should know - I was a member of the Labour party right up to the day I joined the Tories, and the Tory response to me badgering them about this was "so what? it's not that uncommon". Highlighting a few people who did switch directly would have improved the perception of the party in the press, just like the relief of Glenrothes has saved the perception of the Brown bounce as just a sleight-of-hand poll trick). Labour currently enjoy being given the benefit of the doubt but they can no longer rely on an in-built hostility ot the Tories because if the Opposition leadership has succeeded anywhere it is in appealing to the very picky and often querulous Conservative press and making overtures to the Labour-supporting broadsheets such as the Guardian and the Independent.

9. Favourable movements. ACE OF CUPS REVERSED - "The Ace represents the exact opposite of the upright meaning - emotional upheaval, sterility, relationship break-up, the collapse of hopes, betrayal and insecurity, especially in personal relationships. Summon up your inner strengths."

Brown should be warned of further difficulties and double problems, since this card has come out reversed even in a nominally good position. The difficulties here may be "exalted", in that they represent a necessary clash of personalities, and Brown may end up saving the day and coming out of this better than when he went in, despite a certain amount of necessary bloodletting. Could indicate a resignation that stabilises the Cabinet overall, for example.

10. Unfavourable movements. ACE OF WANDS - "The reversed Ace warns of the danger of getting too attached to new beginnings that haven't been thought through properly, of being unrealistic and not fully committed to your undertakings. There is a slim chance of success here, but only if you work at it."

Brown needs to be warned that his bounce may peter out if he does not keep going properly over the winter. He needs to grasp several nettles and make decisions quickly without being too hasty, and use the resources available. He needs to continue to bail Labour out and promote himself as a leader who can maintain high energy levels for a long time.

11. Resources. THE MOON - "A choice needs to be made that could determine your happiness for a long time ahead. You need to be guided by intuition and feelings when making this choice, but at the same time there is a real danger of delusion, of being misled by wishful thinking or by someone whose judgement you trust. Times like this are true tests of character and your grasp on reality."

Brown generally acts well on hunches and thus can often ride out crises in confidence and deal with situations where his leadership would be questioned - with a heavy dose of good luck involved as at Glenrothes. Brown needs to continue to do what feels right and not take anything at face value, either good or bad. His depth of character has made him a stable, intuitive leader and has for a while suggested he is always one step ahead of everybody else. He needs to keep his faith in this trait and develop it into something that appears to learn from apparent mistakes than just trusting in long-term deliverance.

12. Obstacles. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Bad luck, obstruction, betrayal and indifference all conspire to bring you to a standsill. This is a bad time for new undertakings and also for gambling. Concentrate on small, practical achievements that will bear fruit. Practice cheerfulness in the face of adversity. It will pass."

Labour can expect more bad luck and is facing the same prospects as the Tories' cards have shown for a week or two. It may be that both parties face difficulties outside their control and the eventual winner will be the party which can manage their bad luck the best and come out of it having learned the most.

OUTCOMES

13. Direction. II PENTACLES - "Difficulty and embarrassment at the beginning of a new business venture is suggested by this card, but the prospects are very promising if you are prepared to put in the hard work and resist making reckless gambles. Times of change like this are full of opportunity but also risk, so be prepared for a rollercoaster of a journey!"

Brown has been up and down so much he must feel like a yo-yo, and despite the "bounce" this still lies ahead in a mild form - the absence of anything dramatic like some of the "ending" cards do point towards a storm he can weather, but he needs support from his colleagues and balance in government to stabilise the bounce and direct it upwards. There is still enough to play for that Brown can be confident of steering though this next period, but this is dependent on outside factors being to his advantage and not going the Tories' way. Manageable problems but ones which need a robust and firm leadership if he is to pull through.

14. Trend. IX WANDS "You enjoy well-earned success gained through honesty, hard work and intelligence. However, troubles are brewing on the horizon, and you are soon likely to be tested to the very limits of your patience and ability. Take the time now to cultivate key allies, and check too that your finances are robust enough to cope with unexpected demands."

 Brown here is not wholly out of the woods but at least he knows how to get out when difficulty does arise. The cards prophesy difficulties ahead but also a robust enough response to them to have people suggesting that he may still be the safest bet in a recession despite supposedly being to blame for it in the first place. He defends well enough to shore up his position to later go back on the offensive.

15. Solution. VII SWORDS - "Hope appears after a long struggle, but keep your guard up. You face opposition to your plans and it would be wise to learn its source, but you can achieve your aims if you persevere and be certain of your facts. Avoid direct confrontation, however; instead let your ideas speak for themselves."

There is the sense of overcoming challenges both in this card and the last one, which suggests that although Brown is running to stand still, he is keeping up a certain dynamic balance which, like a gyroscope, gives him stability and movement at the same time. There is light at the end of the tunnel - not just an oncoming train - but how long that tunnel is is still unknown.

16. Overall outcome. VII WANDS - "Success is likely, even though all the odds appear to be stacked against you. Victory will be all the sweeter for the effort it takes you, and sweeter still if you just quietly get on with doing whatever is necessary without complaint. Others may be trying to undermine you, but just talk things through with them openly and the threat will go away."

Another card where the balance of probabilities is stacked in Brown's favour, if not the overall direction of events for the time being. Brown is breaking even and even profiting from this time, but the results will not yet be clear whether he is sinking or swimming merely by Christmas, ruling out the possibility for the moment of a snap poll. However this is clearly a response to the Wheel of Fortune, which in its ill-dignified aspect suggests a major challenge and upheaval before Christmas which is out of both Brown's and Labour's direct control. These two cards - 15 and 16 are positive but mean that challenges are not evaporating overnight.