Parliament of Fowls

Remind me when I become Prime Minister to make sure that the death of an MP automatically triggers a by-election, because this by rights should have been fought months ago and, while the Tories delayed moving the writ for Henley until after Nantwich and Crewe (a move which made me think that even at the height of their popularity they were rather too paranoid for a party 20% ahead in the polls), this by-election is due to the unfortunate passing of John MacDougall in the summer.

An unsourced comment on the Wikipedia page for the by-election suggests that "There is speculation that this date was chosen to coincide with the fallout of the US Presidential Election, thus blocking media coverage of an embarrassing result for Labour". The timing of by-elections should, almost by definition, be removed from party political control to make sure they are run in the fairest and most equal way possible for all the parties, given that the timing of the Hartlepool by-election in 2004 meant that both Labour and Liberal Democrats could make their case during the party conferences but the Tories had to rely solely on their own localised campaigning without the benefit of having held their conference as well before polling day. It is also said that Michael Howard altered the timing of his speech that year to ensure the probably negative coverage of the by-election (Tory fourth place in that poll, behind UKIP) did not usurp his place in the spotlight, but since it had already been held, he could not make the same impact Tony Blair and Charles Kennedy could during their annual events. Therefore the timing of by-elections should be automated to ensure the party which moves the writ cannot manipulate the polling date.

This is a much more pressing debate, in fact, than the issue of the BBC license fee, which will be tomorrow's subject thanks to Charles Moore's intervention into the question and the Tories' latest attempt to jump the shark on issues no-one really cares about beyond the latest stupid headline about Jonathan Ross, Russell Brand and Andrew Sachs' granddaughter.

Without further ado, the spread. In this case, like for most by-election spreads I've done (including NWC, which I will post at some point, possibly after Glenrothes, as the input and output sections puzzle me tremendously - because it implies the wrong candidate won), I have taken the two front-running parties, Labour and the SNP.

Because I have little bias in this question, I feel able to keep this at arm's length; in most other by-elections I've participated in, I have usually been more partisan and had my judgement clouded by emotional considerations. Assessing the possibilities I have to say neither party would get my vote, except if I was voting tactically, because Alex Salmond abuses the English taxpayer by slashing Scottish prescription charges and taxes while asking Westminster for another £1bn bailout. I have lived in Ireland, a country of similar size and tax-base to Scotland, and had to pay full whack for medication and doctor's appointments.

If the SNP desires independence so badly, they should look at how Ireland is unable to afford a free health service and even the £7+ charge we English still have to pay pales beside the cost of prescriptions in Ireland. I have paid for medicine in Poland and Latvia, and in both countries the cost of drugs is steep compared to local purchasing power. Why should the Scots get free medicine at England's expense? Alex Salmond should be given a period of, say, five years wholly independent of Westminster subsidy and see how much of what he puts through in Scotland can actually be afforded solely on the back of Scottish taxpayers.

There goes the opinion, now let's look at the cards.

LABOUR

I drew four cards for the progress of the campaign and one extra to summarise the overall prospects. Back to Douglas for the explanations of the cards. Douglas and Suckling are equally good at predictory explanations, whereas Donaldson (used for the Yachtgate readings) is good for advisory spreads.

L. Overall prospects. QUEEN OF SWORDS - "She is highly intelligent, has a complex personality and is concerned with attention to detail and accuracy in all things. She is alert to the attitudes and opinions of those around her and skilled at balancing opposing factions whilst she furthers her own schemes. She is self-reliant, swift-acting, versatile and inventive."

Labour are not taking anything for granted here and are perhaps sacrificing confidence for care in fixing up every last vote that they can take back. By-election I have been on with Labour* have always shown the party to be confident in their success and even arrogant at times, but this campaign is much more closely fought, suggesting the machine has learned the lessons of Nantwich and Crewe and Glasgow East and is concentrating on putting a rational message out rather than trying to call the SNP names.

*(or as a Tory with my Labour-supporting ex-boyfriend playing gooseberry at the Hodge Hill campaign in 2004, mainly because neither of us could bring ourselves to explain to his Blairite friends that I had crossed the floor - I sat there bullsh*tting for all I was worth about why I wouldn't be going to conference later on in the year at a New Labour party the next day and then slunk off upstairs to read my book in peace. If you think Labour activists are bad now, you should have seen them there, most of them were crapping themselves at Michael Howard so he wasn't all that bad a leader if he could scare my boyfriend and his friends...)

1. Beginning of the Campaign - X WANDS - "The triumph of force. Great good fortune which has become the means of oppression. Obstinacy and fixed ideas which serve to repress society into a static mould. Power which has no end beyond the expression of itself. The burden imposed by a surfeit of success."

Labour have been so successful for so long that their machine cannot in general cope with the surge in support for alternative governing parties (the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland) that they began this campaign in hock to the rigidities of thinking that this card often highlights. This mode assumed success and took other parties for granted as necessary but superfluous annoyances. After poor results in the spring and summer the party was crippled by the end of boom and the beginning of bust, thereby forcing the party to try and accept that its time in government was coming to an end. The Ten of Wands represents this burden perfectly and is seen here as Labour trying to reignite its sense of once again being back in opposition to the prevailing political winds.

2. Initial response to conditions - KING OF WANDS - "A man who is noble and courageous, and who exhibits qualities of great strength and fortitude. He is virile and passionate and has a loyal and generous nature. He is a lover of traditional ways and family life. He tends to act swiftly when provoked, yet on occasion may find it hard to be decisive because his essentially just outlook enables him to see every side of a problem. He often acts a mediator and is splendid at giving moral support."

This is Labour rediscovering a more pro-active and aggressive demeanour and means the prospects are not as bleak as they could have been if the lessons from the Ten had not been absorbed and used in developing that all-important narrative and agenda. The Kings are all in control of their suit, and the King of Wands is a good tactitian who is able to say and do the right thing at the right time. Labour are looking better and more responsive as a result of their time in the wilderness and are able to turn things around to their advantage because of more favourable winds emerging at a time when they looked more desperate than ever.

3. Development of the campaign - PAGE OF WANDS - "He is ambitious and resourceful, enthusiastic and adaptable. He is a messenger who brings good tidings, stimulating news, witty gossip. He is by nature faithful and trustworthy, vigorous in the service of those in authority over him."

Labour have developed their campaigning technique to be much more dependent on the needs of their constituents, coming at them with suggestions and requests, rather than orders or diktats. They are soliciting the voters as providers of a service and ultimately presenting themselves as delivery-boys of a particular and popular product - a positive and outgoing message characteristic of what they tend to do best as a political party. It also suggests, however, that they are paying close attention to the votes individually, which, along with the summary Queen of Swords, hints that they might not yet be fully confident of victory and thus lack the necessary confidence in a clean sweep which is often a precondition of psychological victory.

4. Eventual outcome - VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds the promotion of understanding and cooperation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."

Labour are not therefore certain to win - and I still feel a bit queasy when I try to picture them winning, suggesting to me my sixth sense still has a block on that idea. But the movement which has come out of these cards tells me that there is momentum on their side which will keep them in the fight until close of poll and get the best result possible.

THE SCOTTISH NATIONALIST PARTY

I drew cards for the same four positions and the fifth for a summary card.

S. Overall Prospects - THE CHARIOT - "Success, triumph over the obstacles life throws in one's path. Secure progress, victory achieved through personal effort, the triumph of initiative. Not success which is inherited or the product of fortune."

The SNP are going flat out with confidence in victory and striking while the iron is hot to push forward into another Labour seat in Scotland after taking Glasgow East in July. However with The Chariot also comes reckless force which can be dangerous to the wielders and riders in the cart pictured on the card. Therefore, while the SNP feel they have a good chance and are taking the opportunity when it comes, they could be going too fast and not noticing the detail of the specific campaign.

1. Beginning of the Campaign - ACE OF PENTACLES - "Security, firm foundation, wealth, possessions, appreciation of physical beauty, sensuousness. The faculty of sensation. Material comfort, appreciation of the good things of life, the approach to the Spirit through the things of Earth. Stoicism, the ability to endure adversity with steadfastness."

The SNP began effectively with an open goal and the confidence of having won Glasgow East, which meant that as well as having executive power - what I believe can be interpreted or divined through the suit of Pentacles with regards to politics - in Scotland as a whole. Their potential is therefore solid and steady here. There is a good reason to expect an SNP win even though as an English Conservative I disagree with their use of executive power to spend today and ask for more money from Westminster tomorrow - in the middle of a crisis as well. Their ability to use executive power to their own electoral benefit is similar to Labour's own a few years ago.

2. Initial response to conditions - KNIGHT OF SWORDS - "He is courageous, strong, highly skilled and at his best in a difficult situation. He indicates the approach of battles that must be fought and enemies who must be defeated by strength of arms. He is the archetypal warrior."

Similar to The Chariot, this card often indicates a touch of recklessness and daring-do which could get out of control if it is not tempered with a more methodical and concentrated approach. Psychologically the SNP obviously have supreme confidence in their own ability to win this, and are not as obsessed as Labour appear with catching every last vote. They are charging forward but they have transferred the energy from material to mental, relying more on promise than record. This is a risky strategy as a more focussed and grounded approach is healthier during a recession which could see projects and spending plans cut back, including the promise of free prescriptions if the money cannot be found. The SNP are in danger of dulling their ability to prove their worth at Westminster as a result.

3. Development of the campaign - X SWORDS - "Desolation, disruption and ruin - generally referring to a group or community rather than an individual. But cause for hope is suggested here. This card represents the nadir - the lowest point in this cycle of fortune. From now on things can only get better [where have I heard that before?!]. The worst has already been experienced."

The SNP may even have hit the buffers here and although I still believe they may win it, the tactics of The Chariot and the Knight of Swords are no longer able to convince voters. They show the difficulties of putting promises before actual record (as shown in the Ace). The "nadir" gives the SNP time, however, to turn things around, given that this is the penultimate and not the climactic card. However it could also mark the start of the Labour recovery - because of the rise of Brown's personal stock rising over the last month - and the diminishing of prospects for the Scottish Nationalists.

4. Eventual Outcome - IX WANDS - "Great strength and stability which cannot be overthrown. Courage in defence and victory in attack. Assurance that opposition will be defeated. Reveals that one is in a safe and secure position which is unassailable."

Contrasting with the previous card, and with the card in the same place for Labour, the Nine indicates the ability of the SNP to fend off the Labour counter-attack, and defend their position well. As I said, my feelings are that the Nationalists will manage to overturn the Labour majority, despite Brown's rise in popularity over the last month. Defence here beats an uncontrolled and unmanaged offence.

ULTIMATE RESULT CARD - V WANDS - "Opposition which requires mental agility to be defeated. Conflicts which cannot be avoided, tests that must be passed for further success to be attained or present achievement continued. Upheavals which call forth all resources of ingenuity and leave nothing secure. Indicates that the prize will have to be fought for relentlessly if it is to be gained."

In the Norse sagas, the story of Ragnarok concisely detailed the end of the world. WIthin it are many different battles, but one is between Heimdall and Loki: "age-old enemies, [they] will meet for a final time, and neither will survive their encounter." While I'm not sure Brown lives up to the shining character of Heimdall, nor does Alex Salmond plumb the depths of the sinister Loki, this card in this position for this event conjures up that line. This is not a clearly obvious result; both sides are evenly matched and although one party must eventually win, this card suggests not only a dead heat, but a destructive or exhausting one like the match between Heimdall and Loki. By-elections are always keenly fought and although the SNP started with a massive advantage, Labour have clawed a lot back in the last month and the SNP acted recklessly enough that the result is now in the balance. There can be only one winner, but both Heimdall and Loki are destroyed by their duel, and it could be that in the event of an SNP win Labour will have clawed back enough ground to make it respectable enough, whilst the SNP will have thrown a lot of promise away and done their reputation enough damage in the long run that Salmond has to rein in some of his radicalism and rethink policies he once thought would win the hearts and minds of the Labour establishment.

Tim Montgomerie has been assessing the way forward for the Conservative Party on Conservative Home. The only problem is that the Conservative leadership seems to be failing to stop the slow decline in its poll ratings, given the recent forecasts. Are they actually listening to Tim, who is regarded as a friendly voice, and in that case, will it do any good to arrest the current trend and revive the prospect of more than a bare majority at the next election?

DCMX on the most recent thread suggested that the "Cameroons" were not the best listeners to external voices. Personally I would be sceptical of a leadership who reacted to every single commentator and took too much notice of external opinion. However it seems that Conservative Home should be an integral part of an informal advisory network, since it is populated by the "new Tory" constituency who are basically friends of the party and receive exclusive briefings from MPs and the Shadow Cabinet. If anyone can inform the Conservative Party, Conservative Home might well be the first in line to give that advice.

Without further ado, let's get on with the actuality of the situation as suggested by the tarot. Glenrothes is already written but since polling day is still almost a week into the future, it will be up as well some time this evening. Despite an infected cut making my index finger painful every time it touches the keyboard, I'm still finding questions to try and answer. Please let me know whether you can follow these card spreads without images through the comment system - I have found an alternative way of posting thumbnails after my last attempt backfired somewhat because the width of the column limits the horizontal size of the frame.

For a bit of variety I thought I would use the Cico Books Dragon Tarot written by the interestingly named Nigel Suckling. Presumably a pig-totem then.

S. Situation. SEVEN OF SWORDS - "Hope appears after a long struggle but keep your guard up. You face opposition to your plans and it would be wise to learn its source, but you can achieve your aims if you persevere and be certain of your facts. Avoid direct confrontation, however; let your ideas speak for themselves."

This is the situation at the junction between Montgomerie and the "Cameroons" - NB I don't normally buy into memes meant to insult their owners, but I have to admit my word for the current Tory leadership would not be commonly understood outside my immediate friends. It is trying to explain the relationship between Conservative Home and CCHQ, and a respected, sympathetic opinion-former on the other. This suggests that there are fewer correspondences than one might hope for, and that things are already somewhat at cross-purposes. Nevertheless it is encouraging that the Seven has come up rather than the Five or the Ten because that means that some progress has been, can be or is being made.

1. External Tory Position regarding the Ten Next Steps. THE HIGH PRIESTESS - "Inspiration, learning, mystery, understanding of the inner workings of life, enlightenment and serenity are all representated by this card, with a hint that serenity can sometimes lead to emotional detachment from daily events. Often this card implies that hidden spiritual factors are currently affecting your life, so look carefully within or consult a respected adviser."

Cameron and his team are evidently not making any sudden or public moves to betray any sign of changing their course due to pressures from one particular person or site. This is expected from the perspective of the leadership in that responding too sharply to one suggestion or group of suggestions may end up looking panicked or in hock to special interests when the party should be developing its own response. However this is also detachment creeping in - when is it safe to acknowledge advice and even encourage and solicit it from one's own members? The Tories need to show signs that they are listening to their own party, particularly advisers such as Tim who are regarded as being of the same tendency or faction that Cameron belongs to.

2. Internal Tory position regarding the Ten Next Steps. KING OF PENTACLES - "The King of Pentacles is wealthy, confident, commanding, inspiring, intelligent, mathematical, straightforward and determined. He is conservative, hard-working, and leads by example. He is equivalent to Jupiter in astrology, the jovial ruler of the other planets and bounteous dispenser of wealth, which he naturally attracts. He is a loyal friend, a wise counsellor and a reliable, if cautious, partner."

I get the feeling that the Tory response is two-fold. One, they are asking whether Montgomerie is in possession of the Holy Grail, or whether he is simply just one of a number of competing interests who does not necessarily have all the right answers. Two, would what he suggests play well enough with voters outside Westminster to change their course solely to bring what could be a minority voice on board? Current Conservative Home campaigns and issues focus on a review of the license fee, which excites only those perceiving anti-Tory bias in the corporation after the handling of Yachtgate and the Russell Brand/Jonathan Ross affair, hardly a pressing issue in Peoria - or Portsmouth. The Tories are displaying their own methods of continuing forwards, and as a response to advice the King of Pentacles is more in tune with his own intuition and substance than concerned about taking others' feelings into account.

3. Reasons for the Ten Next Steps - Tim Montgomerie's viewpoint in writing them. THE FOOL - "A new beginning with fresh adventures ahead, although there is a very real danger of it all going horribly wrong. The bag on the Fool's shoulder represents natural talents that he could usefully employ if he took the trouble to open it, but he generally doesn't. For wild optimists this card is a warning to try and temper enthusiasms with a little common sense. For pessimists, it suggests lightening up a little."

The Tories are at a critical stage and the roots of Montgomerie's concerns are evidently that the party needs to adjust itself to cope with the poll-slide rather than naively trotting forwards as if things were still going in an upward direction. The clash comes where the party believes it can cope on its own and by utilising existing strategems to turn things back in a favourable direction; Tim sees it more as needing to temper this naive assumption with some sounder advice from a still-sympathetic commentator. The result is that Tim is getting through but the party believes itself to be still fully in control of its own destiny whereas Montgomerie is increasingly worried by its current direction.

4. Results of the Ten Next Steps - Tim Montgomerie's viewpoint. SEVEN OF WANDS - "Success is likely, even though the odds appear to be stacked against you. Victory will be all the sweeter for the effort it takes you, and sweeter still if you just quietly get on with doing whatever is necessary without complaint. Others may be trying to undermine you, but just talk things through with them openly and the threat will go away."

This shows more that Montgomerie is getting through to Team Cameron and that there is some benefit to him writing this advice; however there is no indication that DC and co will put anything into practice directly and visibly before they find themselves past the point of no return. Montgomerie is trying to get them to put a bit more thought into projecting their core message but may be hamstrung in the party's eyes by them seeing him as a narrow sectional interest with impracticalities in his approach. It is filtering through quietly but the party cannot afford to risk his strategy being wholly right.

5. Advice to the Tories from other commentators. QUEEN OF PENTACLES - "The Queen of Pentacles is regal, generous and diplomatic, ruling her suit in close partnership with her King and in much the same manner, although with perhaps a touch more warmth and understanding of human frailty. She has a good grasp of finances as well as being a generous and welcoming hostess. The card represents either someone you should turn to or qualities you need to cultivate."

The Queen suggests that most commentators advise the Tories to be more open with their policies and alternatives to Labour - the Queen often represents administration or "household" management, and the qualities associated with its success. Thus most commentary suggests the Tories need more of a directly materialist approach to the British "household" to impress voters who are worried about the mismanagement of the public household by Labour but are beginning to see the government as more virtuous in austerity and the Tories a riskier proposition in the full teeth of a recession. I joined the Conservative household because I saw Keynesianism in action in Poland and decided that it actually suppressed a fragile economy and by 2003 the Polish economy was suffering from high taxes, low revenue, and no incentives to employment, precipitating the exodus to Britain in 2004 when they joined the European Union. It cured me of my romance with Labour and combined with the strong, administrative-orientated leadership of Michael Howard replacing the lukewarm Iain Duncan-Smith and frankly laughable William Hague, I finally came home to the Tories who seemed to be able to see an alternative. The Tories now need to convince people outside the economic fraternity of the LSE that their proposals are more attractive than tax-and-spend in a recession.

6. Warnings to the Tories from other commentators. SIX OF CUPS - "The immediate future promises to be full of interesting options and possibilities but you may miss out on them if you spend too much time dwelling on the past. Nostalgia can be taken too far."

This suggests the Tories have not caught up with the current crisis because they are seen to rely on things which have been successful in the past - the economics of growth - rather than being able to realign themselves with the politics of recession. Labour lost in 1992 because despite the downturn they did not look able to govern at a time of crisis because they assumed an economy with plenty of slack to spare for increased spending. Now the Tories have not yet articulated the difference in their approach which would be comparable to more of the same under Brown and Darling's stewardship of the economy, bad as it may have been in the past. The Tories cannot rely so much now on the previous mood prior to October 2008 and commentators are asking for more solutions and less breezy spin.

7. Approach to criticism by the Conservative leadership. EIGHT OF CUPS - "Restlessness causes you to question many aspects of your life and possibly with good cause, as maybe it is time for some major changes. But remember that is is your own restlessness and need for a sense of purpose that is driving you. Others will not appreciate being blamed for what is basically your problem."

Team Cameron are showing signs of thinking, and contemplation is another aspect of this card - which has the subtext in many books that "the well has run dry" - previous approaches have failed and you need a rethink. The card is passive rather than active - rethink therefore needs re-orientation, a publicity drive aimed at voters rather than seminarians at the LSE, and a hardening of thoughts into policy along the lines of the 2004 Timetable for Action, which resonated on marginal doorsteps and gave the Tories the half-way swing of roughly 6% which put Cameron in an enviable position when he took office three years ago. Team Cameron are a supertanker when it comes to U-turns, but if they can turn around before Christmas they will have translated this rethink into response.

8. Outcome of this approach. THREE OF SWORDS - "Argument and strife threaten your plans. Be patient. Separation, frustration and disillusionment all loom, but if you hold onto your long-term goals they can still be realised - you just have to work out who your real friends are. Break-ups are always painful, but totally necessary in the long run."

This card has a habit of falling out of the pack just when I am feeling rather queasy, and I always end up being lavishly sick by the small hours of the morning. This is not a good omen at all - if it comes up in an outcome, you should brace yourself for defeat and, once the nausea, headaches and vomiting subside, try another route to the goal in question. The Tories are in the problematic situation where any rethink will turn in to a return to previous policies or a reshuffle (at the very least) rather than a response or change for the better. I am not kidding myself that I have Cameron's ear, but if he is reading this, the Three is very rarely the kind of card I would want in any spread dealing with the outcome of any approach. I hope the headache doesn't last too long and that Dave feels better once he has thrown up, because in this case even Nurofen isn't going to work.

9. Did they listen to Tim? THE DEVIL - "Whether or not you are fully conscious of it, you or someone in close proximity are already bound to some self-destructive attachment that can only end in tears. It is time to listen to your own inner voice of wisdom and a way out will soon become clear. The misfortune threatened by this card is not a force of nature, but a consequence of choice.

I will give Cameron the benefit of the doubt here and say that if he can begin to reorientate himself and adjust his direction NOW he may well stave off bigger problems in the future. However, the saying, "You have made your bed and have to lie in it" may be appropriate as here in the outcome section we have the cards that were perplexing me in the internal development section a week or so ago, and propelled me into writing this blog in the first place. It is never too late - I was once told that by an angry secretary of a language school in Poland who I had kept waiting too long with a job offer open and had not accepted it because of another offer elsewhere which evaporated after rapid change at the top - only to have her ring me up a fortnight later to be told the offer was still open. Nevertheless, in politics, the opportunism of others is more alive than in the dizzy world of English as a Second Language teaching, and if Cameron doesn't listen someone else may be only too happy to oblige.

10. Ultimate outcome. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - [Because of the proximity of the Three of Swords and The Devil, I am reading this card as ill-dignified.] "Bad luck, obstruction, betrayal and indifference all conspire to bring you to a standstill. This is a bad time for new undertakings and also for gambling. Concentrate on small, practical achievements that will bear fruit. Practice cheerfulness in the face of adversity. It will pass."

Because of the way tarot works, this card is read in conjunction with others, particularly as an outcome. It introduces an element of chance out of the control of the commentators or parties. As it is ill-dignified, it represents bad luck, not good; the roll of God's dice which led to 9/11 at the peak of a period of global prosperity, for example, or the way in which the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody provided Labour with a crushing defeat in an extremely safe English seat. However if the steps taken in the Three of Swords and The Devil are anything to go by there will be a decisive moment whereby either the Tories will have to put up, or Cameron may find himself shutting up - permanently or otherwise. Yachtgate was too close to Betsygate for my liking and given that advice taken leads to a disappointing conclusion to this spread, I'm not altogether sure what the Tories can do to avoid a more fundamental and radical change of direction.

I'm off to take a shower but I will post the results of the Glenrothes spread later on.