I did get drunk, and I did get hungover this morning. So I was excused from the Remembrance Day commemorations at the local war memorial, unfortunately. However I was there in spirit.

The Sunday Telegraph has published an ICM poll showing the Conservatives with a 13% lead - cue the usual crowing from Louise Bagshawe (appropriate, because she like me is a Crow totem). Given the Tories are still in for a rather messy future, perhaps it is time to look more closely at both parties without confusing the issue by reading for particular events. The outcomes forecasted are if anything counter-intuitive, unless the current plans to cut taxes are a damp squib and this poll - taken on Nov 5 and 6, before the Glenrothes election result - is going to provoke complacency rather than action on all fronts.

By the way, the betting price that I am a troll on Conservative Home is up to £5.00 as of last posting. Personally I resent that remark, because I'm a Conservative member and voter, but what is wrong with a bird's-eye perspective on things? I'd rather be considered a troll than be so blinkered and unthinking I make Mandelson look indepedent-minded. I can't help the fact that I took a disliking to Cameron the day I first saw him in the papers. I can't help the way the cards are falling for him. I come with personal references as an election campaigner from two new Tory MPs, both of whom introduced me to people at Conference 2005 as "the person who won me my seat", and John Redwood still sends me a Christmas card. What other Tory credentials can I have?

I'm just trying to play Devil's Advocate because I think the party deserves better management, focus by its Shadow Cabinet and expression of its raison d'etre and I'm certainly NOT making The Tower up.

This is the assessment for Labour then.

LABOUR

1. External appearances after this poll. THREE OF PENTACLES - "The card for studying, for learning new subjects or enhancing skills, especially through training."

Labour are making modest progress, though the initial impact of the 13% deficit indicates that there is a lot more ground to make up. They are keeping ahead of the Tories in terms of their record on the economy, which will probably be more important at any general election than "who gets on best with Barack Obama". Still, the public perception is still that they have a long way to go to put themselves into a position where they can risk calling an election.

2. Internal expressions after this poll. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Abundance is the keyword here, but it is directly related to your faith, your hope, your optimism. The need to think on a bigger scale, to think not just of the next project but on the next 100 projects! A person ultimately gets only what they truly expect. So let's make your expectation higher, so that we can get some bigger and better results."

Referring to the shock of the Glenrothes result and the Wheel of Fortune turning unexpectedly in their favour, Labour believe more in their own potential than they have done for a while. A shift has happened internally such that there are now more grounds for optimism than previously. A change in internal perception from "glass half empty" to "glass half full" may improve psychological expectations and thus before long be reflected in reality.

3. Obstacles. ACE OF PENTACLES - "A new doorway opening up for exploration, which may well be beneficial to go through and explore. In particular it refers to work opportunity."

The need here is for concrete manifestation of the Brown bounce and, while the poll was done prior to the result in Glenrothes this manifestation is still elusive for Labour who have to be absolutely certain that more definite signs of recovery in marginal areas, particularly in England, were visible before going to a general poll. Something that needs to appear in substance before a Brown bounce can be turned into a Brown take-off.

4. Overcoming the obstacles. SIX OF WANDS - "Victory, the time being shown here in which you enter into the city amid great fanfare, after having overcome a strong force."

This could refer to the Glenrothes result, given that the poll was taken before the results became known. It demonstrates partial success of the needs in 3; or it could alternatively suggest that a lot of minor, temporary-seeming victories could end up coalescing into a bigger swing upwards. Brown needs to be pro-active (which it is possible to be as Prime Minister) and he needs to be opportunistic and ready to spin things in his direct favour. Confidence in the various possibilities will also pay off.

5. Direction afterwards. THE DEVIL - "The need to develop a more positive self-image. Don't over-emphasise the problems you are faced with - look upon them as opportunities for growth. Maintain your faith and keep alive your spirit of hope."

Brown here needs to keep up the pressure and be ruthless and daring as well as realistic about the probabilities for success following Glenrothes. He needs to be as belligerent as possible and exert control over his party, not shrinking from legitimate use of his political power. He needs to keep calm in a crisis and make sure that he doesn't get deflected by still-mediocre poll results. He also needs to maintain the momentum the economic crisis has given him.

6. Solution. KING OF CUPS - "This card generally shows not so much a person as a situation of culmination. Thus, a certain emotional scenario has been resolved, a state of happiness is either achieved or achievable. This card portrays a man with a calm ocean behind him. The ocean represents the realm of feelings which are now becalmed."

Brown is out of danger but now much prove himself to be useful and to be able to refloat his own prospects after the success in Glenrothes (although people point out it was a safe seat, the psychological aspects of the win against all odds make people believe that it was more of an achievement than it objectively was). He has fulfilled certain requirements and is living up to his reputation as a skilful handler of the economy - and crises in general - but to be certain of election victory he has to try and develop the situation beyond "becalmed" and push the storm that threatened him a few weeks ago back the other way.

7. Outcome in the end. ACE OF WANDS - "A new enterprise being started. By looking at the surrounding cards we would have idea as to what."

Brown is being counselled here to be as aggressive as possible while still remaining within ethical guidelines (which the Devil suggests, intriguingly for a man of Brown's personal probity, he is in danger of overstepping). He is still able to take credit from the response to the credit crunch and has passed the hard exam set by the electorate in Glenrothes. He needs a series of swift coups, whether economic or political in nature, to spur the agenda onwards. A new parliamentary year is about to commence, so the initiatives of this may mean he is able to improve much more markedly than recently.

The Tories' results will follow later but I need a cup of coffee and a sandwich before going much further with this.