Suitably chastened from predicting a narrow SNP win, here we have got to look at the cards more carefully. I wrote this spread before I knew the result, but to me the tarot puts itself beyond manipulation by forecasting in a non-binary way - that is, by advising about the result, rather than saying "yes/no". Having the impact of the result in previous spreads as The World could mean anything positive, and because I was expecting an SNP win I read it that Labour would survive beyond what would have been a bad but not wholly unexpected result. We will now never know whether they would have sunk lower in the polls as a result of a loss - so what will happen now that they have cleared this hurdle comfortably?
It is only a safe seat in Scotland, and was not a Tory-Labour fight, but the perceptions of the Brown bounce remain and may strengthen them even in England more than if they had lost. Intuitively the difficulties with the Opposition not being robust enough to survive a general election might not have been realised until then, and covered up by an unstable lead which vanished in the weeks before an election. The Conservatives did not lose the seat in a close race, they lost their deposit but understandably the propaganda machine is now in overdrive with Louise Bagshawe in her normal role as the Tory version of the editor of Pravda claiming it was a good result. Not many people on the thread agree with her (Satirical Moderniser is actually a UKIP troll pretending to be a Cameroon for the week). It's not unexpected that the Tories lost the seat, and that their vote may have collapsed because their votes all went to the SNP (as allegedly happened with the Liberal Democrats in Hartlepool in 2004, resulting in a poor fourth place behind UKIP).
Here is a spread designed to gauge the result of the Glenrothes result.
1. Result for Labour. III CUPS - "Great happiness resulting from a marriage or a birth. The coming to fruition of something which was conceived in love. The card of maternity, abundant fertility, comfort, solicitation, trust, harmony, felicity and the healing of ills."
This card is a relief for Labour and can show real progress and real repair to the damage done over the last year or so. It is difficult to wholly decide whether the relief can be sustained, but for now there is a moment where a surprise result has occurred and the party can now begin to really heal itself and move on.
2. Result for the Conservatives. IV SWORDS - "Peace and order established in the midst of strife through strength and the exercise of arms. Law and firm administration in troubled times. Rest and the opportunity to recuperate from the ravages of battle. A welcome retreat from the stresses of life. Can indicate necessary hospitalisation."
Again, going nowhere fast. This means there is a certain relief for the Tories too - a resting point after struggle, as if they expected a worse result. Since Labour won the by-election there is a set-back because of perception of the result as the vindication of a "Brown bounce" over the economy; whilst the Tories refuse to make hay while the sun shines they run the risk of this rest becoming complacent unconsciousness and vegetation. They are unable to make any capital on this result, but have not altogether slid just yet.
3. Brown bounce? PAGE OF CUPS - "He is a poetic youth much given to quiet reflection and meditative study. He has a fund of useful knowledge and gives his advice freely when asked. He is painstaking and gifted with good foresight."
Brown knows things may get better and the Page of Cups represent some small increase in confidence fuelled mostly by relief and vindication rather than outright jubilation. He enjoys the wisdom of knowing that his cup is half full, rather than half empty, so long as the Tories remain trapped in their comatose position in the Four of Swords. The bounce certainly does not subside and may even still be on the upswing as people warm to him again and he begins to get a better press again.
4. Cameron trend? THE TOWER - "Suffering of an individual though the forces of destiny being worked out in the world. The apparent unfairness of natural disasters which strike all, just or unjust alike."
Cameron is in a situation which is extremely dangerous for him personally and even if the Glenrothes result was expected as far as the Tory vote was concerned, this puts him on the back foot again as Brown seeks to continue the trend upwards after this surprise win. Because no man is an island, fate works through the interdependence of people working together - and this twist of fate might prove to be extremely difficult since the Tory peak is not likely now to return.
5. Will Glenrothes have any effect? VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding-up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."
Glenrothes will probably catalyse other aspects of political life which have been sluggish of late, and intensify the above two trends for Gordon Brown and David Cameron (as well as Alex Salmond, who is however far from finished as Scotland's First Minister, since in the previous spread the SNP's result - despite the actuality - was still broadly positive. Guess his totem...). This is a direct, striking result and trend and proves to accelerate the process of change in politics in general.
6. Ultimate conclusions. IX PENTACLES - "Material success, comfort, appreciation, popularity. Good sense and sound administrative ability which produces order out of chaos."
A direct coup for Labour and a directly beneficial result which serves to solidify the Brown bounce and push it upwards, though this is not the Ten of Pentacles, which would transcend the solid result into a direct comeback. Brown needs to assimilate this and push upwards again without fearing any repercussions which would probably have accompanied an SNP victory. Brown still enjoys this personal and material strength which his main opponent still seems to lack.
