This is the conclusory part of the Prospects at the Polls series inquiring as to which party has the better chance of winning an early election given the possibility of a change of leadership in one or both parties.
CONCLUSIONS
CONSERVATIVE PARTY
1. Advice to the Party. VI WANDS - "This card signifies a moment of public achievement. It suggests a promotion, or a creative project that has been accepted for display or publication. The key point is that the achievement stimulates public acknowledgement or acclaim."
The Tories have succeeded in getting people to take notice of them and position themselves in a good position to win the next electoin. However the Six of Wands is just the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. The Tories need to go on and consolidate what they have before time runs out. "Teck", a contributor to the comments on Conservative Home, puts it very nicely:
I believe that the transformation/rebranding of the Conservative Party appears to have stalled for a variety of reasons.
Firstly, the core does not seem entirely comfortable with seizing change, being bogged down by intellectual debate and pre-occupation over any different approach however compelling, weighing endlessly against anachronistic benchmarks (ie, anything that is 'left' is not consistent with right thinking).
Secondly, there is a strange absence of conviction in the enunciation of clear future policies - there is a distinct shortage of them - and generally delayed/muted responses to hammer the opposition over patently flawed policies.
We certainly need heavyweight personalities in our parliamentary party going forward from front bench through to the back and our field of candidates in winnable seats; criticising the weakness of the opposition without beefing up ours leaves us vulnerable.
We have been promised substance yet there are few signs of it, and we have been reassured about change but what I have seen so far are at-the-edges and piecemeal ones rather than necessary, wholesome and bold ones.
2. Solution. ACE OF SWORDS - "The Ace of Swords points to strength in adversity or a situation which initially looks unpromising yet has a positive outcome. This card is usually associated with a sense of the inevitability of great change. Although this change may initially be unwelcome, it is ultimately beneficial."
The Tories need to make a thrusting, dynamic move, rather than rely on the sinking of Labour under the weight of their own mistakes. Without this move, the Conservatives could find that this card foreshadows thrusting being made at the expense of key personnel and even the Leader himself.
3. Overall outcome. KNIGHT OF CUPS - "The Knight of Cups indicates romance and a proposal of some kind. This could be a proposal of marriage or an artistic proposition. He may also represent a rival in love. However, the key point connected with the appearance of the Knight of Cups is that love is an important issue, whether it be romantic, platonic or spiritual."
The appearance of some sort of solution following the direct moves made in a1. This card appeared around the time of Davis' kamikaze resignation from both Shadow Cabinet and parliamentary seat. It also represents a new foundation for Conservative policymaking and the promotion of the manifesto in the run-up to any election. If DC cannot do this himself, someone else will be found to do it for them - there are enough people who want to do this and unlike in 2007 a challenger makes himself known in the event of DC's downfall.
LABOUR PARTY
1. Advice to the Party. IV CUPS - "The Four of Cups describes a sense of dissatisfaction on an emotional level with one's lot in life. Even with little in reality to warrant such discontent, there is nevertheless a sense of futility or depression coming from within. This card suggests a feeling of boredom and even a refusal to make an effort to improve the situation."
The Four in an advisory situation suggests that Labour need to ride out the storm and to make sure they acknowledge and allow for internal dissent. They must look at the whole picture and they must be realistic about their prospects. However, there is a brighter side to the Four, in that a solution often provides itself from unexpected quarters if the querent keeps their eyes open. So Labour need to assess their strengths and weaknesses and look for unexplored options among what they currently have on-side.
2. Solution. II WANDS - "The Two of Wands describes a situation in which there is more than just a vision - some solid work has been achieved and the project is viable. Although it suggests the early stages of a venture, there is certainly more than just an idea."
A solution does materialise from within the current Labour arrangements and the party's fortunes continue to improve. Because of the disturbances in the Tory ranks predicted by the Ace, the tentative movements can be made in a climate where Labour still appear to be the best alternative. Labour have the ability to recognise their difficulties and amend them without wholesale damage to Gordon Brown - in fact it is Brown who is able to make these pro-active moves to find a solution. A much more resourceful card, which leads to a more malleable situation than Cameron's brittle hold on his party's leadership.
3. Overall outcome. ACE OF WANDS - "The Ace of Wands is a card of inspiration and vision. It represents the creative spark that is essential in order to begin any scheme or venture. The Ace of Wands reflects a time of optimism coupled with the necessary imagination and enthusiasm to get an idea off the ground."
Labour enjoy the ability to turn the tables on the Tories because they have the policy-making initiative and the executive boldness to implement them without fear. The increase in momentum here while the Tories are making their changes means that Gordon Brown is safe for the time being. Cameron should take note that the emphasis in the Wands is that of a light, nimble touch and the emphasis in his Ace - the Swords - is that of brutal, decisive change. Thus Gordon can be flexible enough to manage his party while Cameron may find himself the victim of a putsch if he does not get on and make policy putsches himself.
