Continuing the assessment of which party would win an election held between now and June 2009 - this spread is based on Labour changing its leadership. Part 2 here.
a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.
1. Polls apparent now. V WANDS - "The Five of Wands suggests a time when creative progress is either slow or obstructed perhaps by external forces or through inner blocks and inhibitions. It might reflecr a time when financial or practical hardships can hinder headway in the realm of creativity or artistic pursuit, or when inner resources are at a low point and nothing seems to quite work out."
A change in Labour leadership would lead to the Tories having more internal difficulties in the short term because they might no longer have an edge over Brown and would be confused in their initial response to the new leader (as when Brown came into power initially in summer 2007). In 2007 they nose-dived to 10 points behind in the polls and only returned to "poll position" in October after party conference season. Many suggestions have been made for this sudden bounce (from the inheritance tax cut promise - unlikely, since it would not affect many people and is not a cornerstone of a lasting political programme on its own - and Brown's floating of a possible election - more likely but still of minor and temporary import a year on) but upon a change in Labour leadership the Tories would again dip below Labour, all other things with them being equal.
2. Underlying stability of campaign. STRENGTH - "The Strength card suggests the possibility of achieving self-awareness, personal inner strength and determination, and the courage to take on the task of self-discipline."
The precious "Brown bounce" did wear off and the Tories managed to avoid a snap change of leader after the third place result in Ealing Southall in July 2007 (my own sources suggest because there was no alternative, a situation which has changed with the departure of David Davis from the Shadow Cabinet and the recovery from a kidney illness of another potential candidate). This card came up in the same position for Labour in the first part of this spread - symbolising current dynamics within the Labour hierarchy rather than on the surface thereof. The Tories would be able to regain the initiative because of the unsettling change in Labour at the end of its third term.
3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. KING OF WANDS - "The King of Wands suggests a warm, fiery individual is set to enter your life, generating changes and setting the scene for something new. If this card is not representing a person, it suggests the time is right for developing these qualities within you."
This would point to a Tory win, because Labour would be too unstable to be able to fight a coherent campaign without more than a year left to the final date for a dissolution. Wands are the least stable of all the suits, so the resulting government may be difficult to sustain (and Cameron would need a quick lesson in executive authority because he does not currently inspire confidence in my cards' opinions) but at least this is a King, ruling the suit and thus at least winning an election with a good working majority. Changing minds could end up undermining Downing Street, but power would be the Tories' for at least one term.
b. LABOUR PROSPECTS
1. Polls apparent now. - KNIGHT OF PENTACLES - "The Knight of Pentacles ensures that important matters will ultimately reach a sound conclusion. The qualities of perseverance and patience can be well used and will come from within or from a person entering your life."
Labour would be more confident and more optimistic but with a Knight rather than a King in the public's perception they would depend on events being in their favour rather than making the events fit the programme, as Brown is currently able to do to a certain extent. There is a loss here of executive authority and control over government - the ultimate governing card is a King of Pentacles, so any deviation from this card shows what the government lacks in comparison - suggesting the new leader would be younger than Brown and have less Cabinet experience - most likely David Miliband.
2. Underlying stability of campaign. VI PENTACLES - "The Six of Pentacles suggests that financial and material help comes in times of genuine need, and must be offered if others need it. The sense of equilibrium symbolised by the Six works both ways - to maintain balanced energy, resources need them most. This card does not promise luxury or extravagance but suggests that true needs may be met."
Labour would have a stable underpinning but not enough momentum not to become dependent on rather than independent of other people - this would also undermine confidence enough to bring about a partial collapse of the party machinery, despite the apparent stability of this card. The Tories would have uninterrupted momentum to bring Labour to a defeat - but not a huge one. Labour would become dangerously stagnant and possibly still restless because the government would have stalled fatally. It is easier to change leaders in opposition than government.
3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. PAGE OF WANDS - "The Page of Wands points to the beginning of a creative idea which, if carefully nurtured, may evolve into greater inspiration. As is the case with everything in embryonic form, great care must be taken to ensure its survival."
The Page of Wands is junior to the King so Labour defeat would be certain. They would exchange their greatest current asset for someone untested in one of the greater executive offices of state - three out of five new Prime Ministers over the last thirty years, all of whom have come into office while their party has been in government, have been Chancellor of the Exchequer rather than Foreign Secretary prior to their appointment or election. It would have undermined the competency Brown is beginning to show. Labour would have to start from scratch, meaning a period in opposition, internal dissent and the process of renewal in time for the next election. One advantage may well be that the leader at the election would keep control of the party, ameliorating rather than compounding the problems faced.
Part 4 and conclusions tomorrow.
