This isn't going to be a spread as such, although there is no Hubdub button on it I want to try and see whether there is any scope for a General Election, either this autumn or next summer. All other things are equal, of course (assuming no changes of leadership on the Tory or Labour benches), but will Gordon try and cut the Tories off at the pass while they don't have another actual conference until autumn 2009?
I've drawn eight cards, for the next eight months (starting in January, as realistically there is no chance for one before Christmas - they would need to call it by the third week in November to squeeze it in, and I don't put it past Brown to want more time to think about it). These are Oracle Tarot cards, as they have keywords as well as long explanations and my infected finger is about twice the size it was yesterday before the Portillo spread, so just quickie descriptions and commentary.
This is assuming Brown as PM and Cameron as Leader of the Opposition. Remember, Brown could call a poll tomorrow but it wouldn't be held for three weeks. This gives time for poll ratings to fluctuate too, so a poll today does not indicate what the figures would be after a three-week campaign.
JANUARY - 2 CUPS - Loving union, teamwork.
Chances slim. Gordon will be wanting to consolidate and develop his agenda rather than cut and run.
FEBRUARY - TEMPERANCE - Balance, harmony.
Gordon has begun to balance the books and although still slightly wobbly, he is beginning to get going on something major.
MARCH - 7 SWORDS - Ego, internal politics.
Trickier time with things finely balanced. Gordon is beginning to overcome internal issues in the Labour Party - and squeeze his way past any other problems.
APRIL - THE LOVERS - Soul mate, decisions.
An auspicious time with most of the previous problems overcome. The most likely time for a snap poll to be called.
MAY - 10 SWORDS - Healing, second chance.
A positive spin on a card which is usually negative. Second chance doesn't bode well but looks like this is the most likely time for an election despite the European elections due a month later.
JUNE - 8 WANDS - Swift decisions.
A quick fix to a long-standing problem is what I'm getting in this context. If this is after an election it looks like Gordon might do a drastic reshuffle or re-arrangement of the confusing cabinet constellation of ministries. The card is talking here of movement rather than lasting solidity, so it may well be the aftermath of an election which sees his majority cut but not by enough to force him out. He may need to move quickly to shore up votes in the Euro-elections.
JULY - THE TOWER - Discovery, change, adjustments.
Again, longer-lasting and more momentous events on the horizon; he will be governing with a reduced majority but the Tories are likely to be looking for another leader (could they find it with several prominent possibilities leaving Parliament at the next election? Is Ken Clarke finally going to get his turn?) so he might find it easy again to adjust things to his own advantage.
AUGUST - 10 CUPS - Blessed love life
There is a sense of completion and relief here, and the possibility for sharing the wealth after a long, hard but rewarding
struggle.
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All in all it doesn't look too good from my perspective as a Tory supporter.
Personally I don't want another Labour government because of the damage it would do to the Conservative Party, who have always had continuity in the leadership between one government and the next - part of the reason why Michael Howard got my active support in 2005 because he was the last plausible link with the 1979-97 period. If they fail this time, they will not only be heading for a similar period in the wilderness that Labour had during the Thatcher/Major years, they would also lack personnel with any experience of government, and the crucial solidity, weight and charisma of people like Straw, Blunkett, Cook, Mowlam, Cunningham, Beckett and others who have actually been a credit to the Labour Party despite the gradual android takeover during the latter half of the Blair years. Labour also breed heavyweights in opposition, while the Tories breed them in government. Apart from David Davis, there would be no-one else left to lead the party; and we could still buy off PPCs in the seats which the people I have in mind are leaving with another seat elsewhere before any election to keep the top staff in Westminster. (We need PPCs desperately, the strategy of choosing them three or four years before the election has backfired as people not only get bored and fractious waiting for the poll but also see the possibility of their seat turning blue evaporate with that 20% poll lead and decided not to bother.)
And I'm not sure DD would have the charisma necessary to win the election (if he does, he might resign his seat again if he does something he doesn't like). If Cameron can't do it, who can?
