Another day, another Conservative gimmick. This spread attempts to analyse not only Charles Moore and Bruce Anderson's intervention in the continuing debate, but also Conservative motivation for offering what may be the most gimmicky policy yet, with the consumer only seeing a £6 saving in order to smash the BBC's face in because they upset the Tories over Yachtgate. With policy being made in response to silly pranks pulled by two overpaid "comedians" (neither of which I find as funny as, say, Drop The Dead Donkey or Blackadder or previous generations' attempts at alternative comedy), have we seen the latest episode perhaps in the "DJ CAM - Pumping up the poll ratings!" policy auction? Or is it actually going to manifest itself in a serious, well-thought-through set of ideas for dealing with the issue of the license fee.
For what it's worth, I'm not a big fan of the license fee either; it's an anachronism and most other countries have learned to provide a good television and radio service without public subsidy. Since I watch little television as it is (mostly "Seconds from Air Megadisaster Investigation" on the National Geographic Channel and "Everyone Loves People Behaving Badly" on the Paramount Hypocrisy Channel) I don't believe that the BBC provides value for the license fee money any more, particularly since the stuff I grew up on as a child mostly came from commercial television anyway - Blind Date and The Bill were family occasions and when I was twelve I had a crush on Jon Snow from C4 News. While I did an internship at the BBC World Service just before I started my A-levels, I believe that major international channels stand or fall largely on the quality of their output rather than their institutionalised status. Moreover, abolishing the license fee is important to get away from the question of potential bias - my opinion, and that of several unnamed colleagues within the local and national party hierarchy, is that the BBC displays bias towards the government, except when it is at rock-bottom in the polls, when it tends to favour the opposition. The Conservatives in my opinion have been enjoying the benefit of the doubt for too long - and in my notes from earlier in the year I find that I wrote "...and other pro-Tory commentators like Nick Robinson".
The current issue therefore is not so much high principles as low partisanship. The Tories are annoyed not at Sachsgate but at Yachtgate, where Osborne had much more to fear and much more to lose than Peter Mandelson, given stricter standards applied to parliamentarians than to European Commissioners. With that hunch in mind, I felt the debate deserved a look-in here, as I am not sure that my own internal bias stands up to scrutiny without the cards to help me with this.
S. Situation. STRENGTH - "Opportunity to put plans into action if one has the courage to take a risk. Morally, the defeat of base impulses. Reconciliation with an enemy - this can be outside oneself, or else refer to unruly forces within."
This is the Conservative Party exerting control over its own public profile - trying to restrain destructive forces after an accusation on various websites - including the standard responses to Nick Robinson's blog posts - that the BBC deliberately focuses on the Tories' weaknesses to the detriment of attempts to promote their own agenda. This is a largely positive card for the querent, in that it shows restraint, discipline and control, but the aspects here suggest a political bias of their own and an attempt to manipulate output in their own favour to offset a perceived Labour bias.
1. External reasons. ACE OF CUPS - "The feminine, passive power of gestation. The primal quiescence of the Element of Water. Nourishment, protection, the processes of creation, faithfulness, the faculty of feeling. Great fruitfulness is indicated, also fertility and the workings of love in the world. Can predict marriage, future motherhood, joy and plenty."
The Tories are trying to offer an altruistic reason for doing this by offering leadership on the moral issues surrounding recent remarks by Brand and Ross, and it follows on from debates over the issue spearheaded by Charles Moore yesterday in the Telegraph and added to by Bruce Anderson, who is more revealing about underlying attitudes than Moore. It is presented as a response to concerns from the public that taxpayers should not be paying for smutty or obscene comments, and offers a direct and immediate response to this question.
2. Internal reasons. VI PENTACLES - "Balance and solvency in material affairs. Income equals expenditure and the wheels of commerce turn smoothly. This is the card of the philanthropist, who uses his wealth not to build himself up, but to help others rise up in the world also. It indicates charity, sympathy, kindness of heart, and the gratitude of one who has been well-favoured by fortune. Gifts, awards, help from above, patronage."
The Tories' main reason for doing this is probably still fairly decent, in that it helps propose a saving or tax cut equal to a £6 cut in the TV license fee and could be seen as giving them a unique and interesting policy to try and restart their bid for office. However there is some sort of patronage extant here, in that it looks as if they are listening to internal discussions without doing anything exceptionally radical. It is a piece of funded, thought-through policy, which they need; however it may also be seen as rather a gimmick and also not offer significant benefit to the consumer nor change much BBC policy. It is a way of making small changes to the status quo rather than giving a large windfall to viewers.
3. Roots of the policy. IV WANDS - "Achievement in the realm of ideas. The card of the successful and renowned designer, innovator or professional man. The establishment of beauty and elegance. Wit, mental alacrity, the most subtle arts of civilisation, refinement, and culture."
An idealistic and ideologically driven policy based on internal debates and the need to give voice to internal concerns. The Four is usually a card of internal stability and structure, and thus the implication here is that this policy was formed from the debate about bias common on a lot of Tory websites. It cannot as such be voiced in that way, but the Brand/Ross fiasco has legitimised and given shape to these discussions, such that the debate has crystallised into policy. Full marks for trying...
4. Consequences of the policy. V PENTACLES -"Poverty, destitution, material worries, unemployment, loss of security. This card warns of severe material adversities ahead, but suggests that enforced restriction in one area of life may open up possibilities in others. Important bonds may be formed with those in similar circumstances, and avenues still remain to be explored. The message here is 'do not despair'."
...but half marks for outcome. As a policy it does not satisfy those who want a full review of the license fee, nor does it look good to those who have read the internal debates and see the Sachsgate affair as an excuse to punish the BBC for Yachtgate. Most papers covered the story in some detail, including the Daily Telegraph - should those have a windfall tax levied on them because of anti-Tory bias? It makes the Tories seem petty and vindictive while the savings to the consumer are paltry. This is knee-jerk policy-making at its worst as the party seeks to find a way to revive its flagging poll ratings without daring to be radical or to articulate coherent manifesto plans a single second before Brown calls an election.
5. Necessary reasons for this policy. VI WANDS - "Victory, triumph, the arrival of great news. The complete fulfilment of major hopes and wishes. Success earned by hard work and originality, satisfaction in what has been achieved. The skilful overcoming of all opposition through the use of diplomacy instead of force."
In this context, the necessary reason for this was to score points over an adversary and impose a moral standard on wayward comics. It also wanted to display radical thinking, shocking the public into paying attention to Tory proposals. The Conservatives needed to score some points and demonstrate their radical credentials; just as Tony Blair once described himself as belonging to the "radical centre", so the Tories need to show that their thinking goes beyond the rather complex and ponderous economic debate being conducted at levels well above the political stratosphere. It is an impressive radical idea - but if it is to be anything more than that it needs to form part of a solid platform, and the victory implied in the Six of Wands is temporary and needs consolidation to be made permanent.
6. Unnecessary reasons for this policy. JUSTICE - "Injustice, lack of fair dealing, bias, prejudice. Legal tangles that delay the administration of the law. Complex and expensive law-suits."
There is a bias here and the Tories have naturally decided that there own interest is best served by attacking an institution perceived by a minute section of society as biased or objectionable, while ignoring the fact that most people are not bothered by the contents of the Tories' own blogosphere. This policy is naive, only gives a £6 pa saving for the average licenseholder, and does not address more radical opinion that suggests that the state-owned TV stations in other countries do not suffer from commercialisation and that the license fee is rapidly becoming an anachronism, particularly in a hi-tech, globalised society. It is a proposition made at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons, and does not go far enough for most of those against the license fee in principle.
7. Pro-Labour BBC bias. THE WORLD - "The final and successful completion of any matter in hand. The summing up of a question or series of circumstances. A culmination of events. The ending of a cycle of destiny."
The answer here is two-fold. One, if any debate has crystallised or culminated, it is the one on Conservative Home or Nick Robinson's blog during Yachtgate as to why the BBC supposedly opened the book on Osborne rather than sticking to GO's revelations about Mandelson, nor the spurious one about whether taxpayers should fund obscene phone-calls regarding a member of the "Satanic Sluts". Two, if the BBC was not pro-Labour beforehand, it may be forgiven for becoming so now, if only because the Tories have been so rash as to have this debate in Opposition and not safely in power.
8. Pro-Tory BBC bias. II PENTACLES - "The cycles of change at work in the world, the natural fluctuations of fortune which must be allowed for when planning ahead. Indicates movement and changes that are imminent - news, communications, journeys, all connected with business, money, material pre-occupations. Stimulating developments which give birth to an atmosphere of light-heartedness, laughter, joy in the pleasures of society. Skilful navigation of the waters of existence, knowledgeable manipulation of the rules of life to attain continuing success."
The fluctuations in fortune are significant enough recently to show that it is possible to suggest that when the Conservatives were quite significantly ahead in the polls the BBC was pro-Tory. The target of current blogosphere attention, Nick Robinson, is listed somewhere in my notes as "pro-Conservative" - I remember a party colleague after the 2005 election suggesting the BBC would be more friendly to us after he took up his position as chief political editor there - proof "our people" were now taking over despite the general election defeat. So the perception of bias tends to shift and if it is now pro-Labour, it was evidently pro-Tory not so long ago.
9. Continuing approach from the Tories. KING OF CUPS - "He is skilled in the way of the world. He is a born manipulator, gifted at conducting negotiations and arriving at a position of power and authority by means of the agility of his mind rather than the strength of his body. He is a man of ideas, a patron of the arts and sciences, an expert in law, and a leader in business. He seeks power and the fulfilment of his own high ambition, and is adept at diverting the tides of fortune into channels that suit his own ends. He instinctively works in secret, behind the scenes, and avoids taking others into his confidence whenever possible. His motives remain hidden and he is often distrusted or feared by those around him. He commands respect, but not love."
The Tories are not commanding much love here because they are working from narrow sectional interests rather than with the benefit of the BBC as an institution or the press and media in general. This approach looks agile, radical and what Adrian Edmondson might call "edgy", but it is really in the same league as leaving obscene messages on Mark Thompson's answer-phone about what the Tories would like to do to Auntie. It is calculated to appeal to the people - all 37,000 of them who complained about Sachsgate, but in reality does little to address serious issues about the license fee. Cameron may think this is a harmless prank but the last people to do that have had both their BBC careers truncated or suspended. Not a good precedent to follow.
10. Long-term consequences. VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communication of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."
In the context of the immediate consequences which do not look too good for this idea, this card accelerates change or momentum, which could either ameliorate or exacerbate the Five of Pentacles. The unbalanced and chaotic nature of this card tends to rush towards something, but since the Five moderates and tempers this with an unintended or mediocre outcome, the speed that is suggested here could get out of control and derail rather than enhance the Tory strategy for the next election. They may be going too fast in the direction of the Five to slow down and restrain their approach to their detractors and people who do not agree with them.
11. Direction of trend. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "The commencement of a new cycle in one's affairs. The processes of destiny, working through time. Events of great moment, over which one can have no personal influence. The operation of the laws of fortune. The solving of a problem through the progression of circumstances. The reaping of what has been sown."
The Tories are at the mercy of events here - no man is an island. The events of 9/11 opened up a flaw in Tony Blair's personality wide enough for the Tories to (belatedly) catch on to the prospect of government, only to have the pendulum stopped half-way. Had 9/11 not happened, Iraq and the concomitant diminution of Blair's former popularity may not have happened and he would have won another landslide in 2005, leaving the Tories in a comparatively difficult position now. The recent events in Brown's favour have increased the difficulty level of winning the next election, and more unseen and unpredictable events are likely on the horizon. Whether these will be in the Tories' favour or to their misfortune is still to be understood, but on recent form, it may get worse before it gets better.
12. Outcome. IV CUPS - "Emotional happiness and fulfilment which has reached its peak and can proceed no further. The establishment of a family. The passive enjoyment of that which has already been attained. But this card also indicates a new dissatisfaction which the things of this world cannot assuage. Fulfilment having been attained, what can follow? Love is perhaps turning into familiarity."
Two things have already shown that the Tories have some internal problems. One is that Shadow Cabinet members have been asked to give up their second jobs to concentrate on the run-up to the next election - and have complained about taking a pay-cut as a result*. A memo has also been leaked suggesting the Tories are desperate to find something to reverse the current downward trend, and Cameron's team has suggested that old policies should be recycled to try and find something to say. The Party needs to find something to stimulate flagging enthusiasm for it, but does not know how to produce genuine, timely manifesto promises which can re-engage voters that have returned to Labour during the credit crunch. There is a feeling here of ennui, which Cameron cannot shift despite this seemingly radical "brainwaves" such as this. This is designed to stroke the egos of a few activists, disguised as a tax cut which delivers minimal benefit for the viewer and invites reaction from a BBC which only followed Fleet Street's lead in pouring the same sauce over the Tory gander as well as the Labour goose. The party is running out of steam and should seek ways to genuinely excite voters and activists alike rather than paranoid gimmicks designed to punish perceived enemies.
*(perhaps they should be reminded that Cabinet ministers only earn a set amount and probably should not be having other directorships that pay £200,000+; they should also take heed that Ann Widdecombe's comment as Shadow Home Secretary that she would not want to be the actual Home Secretary because she could not sanction abortions possibly did not do us any good as regards Shadow Cabinet ministers at a previous election who refused to face up to the realities of serving in Her Majesty's Government.)
