I've never heard of turkeys voting for Christmas, but this may be a case of Guy Fawkes voting for Bonfire Night. A Labour leak has suggested that the SNP might win a 3,000 majority. Discounting the point that this might be misinformation (the Hubdub ticker for this has narrowed appreciably since I posted the widget a few days ago) in order to get Labour voters to turn out on the day, we have to assess the impact that this particular by-election will have, not only on the SNP and Labour but on the Tories. Although they are not going to win - not even David Cameron thinks so - the by-election will have an impact on them as the main opposition party. The intuitive answer goes something like this:
If Labour win, then they will be seen to be clawing back more of their poll ratings and this might give them more of a bounce, reducing the Tories' lead into territory that will produce a hung parliament or even regain the lead by a few points.
If the SNP win, then Labour will break and run; the bounce will evaporate; and the Tories will reclaim a lot of the lead they have lost over the past month. A BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday has given them a 14% lead, but as Tory Home states, this survey does not get factored into their poll-of-polls because of the unreliability and irregularity of its appearances. It claims to take raw data from YouGov, but YouGov usually weight their findings based on demographic data and the likelihood that people will vote, and the fall into single figures remains. However with Labour on the run in Scotland, the Tories will smell blood and go back on the attack and into a genuine double figure lead.
So it was worth doing a line for the Tories as well, and my findings were rather counter-intuitive based on the above assumptions but par for the course with other readings. Meanwhile Portillo has broken ranks this morning with an article in the Sunday Times all but suggesting Brown should cut and run with an early poll, given Tory disarray. The first cuckoo of spring? I'll look at this later, along with the license fee debate and the Tories' response to that issue.
First, though, the SNP and Labour. I am using Terry Donaldson again.
SNP
a. Impact of result. QUEEN OF CUPS - "In a woman's cards, it would generally show either her, or a woman significant in her life in an emotional sense. In a man's cards it would show either a significant woman or the 'female' receptive side of his personality."
I get the words "relief" and "acceptance" here in this card, the ability to relax and enjoy the result after a hard-fought battle. The SNP pride themselves on a good victory and learn from the process of campaigning and any mistakes they made and the way of solving the problems arising from them, or they manage to hold Labour to a small win rather than allowing themselves to crumple and fade, and let Labour away with the seat.
b. Direction afterwards. VII SWORDS - "The need for vigilance. Also, an important but worthwhile sacrifice being made. A rather shadowy figure creeps into our encampment and makes off with five swords, leaving behind the two that presumably he cannot carry."
The SNP do damage, but not lasting or significant, to Labour's prospects in Scotland. A short term gain, but since they cannot carry everything away they are unable to KO Labour completely and should remain aware that there are still more battles ahead.
c. Positive developments. VI CUPS - "Learning to give and receive on an emotional level. Two people face each other, each offering a cup of friendship, from which flowers are growing. This card is similar to the Two of Cups but here there is a sense of something - shown by the flowers - having already grown, rather than starting completely afresh."
A partial reconciliation springs to mind, though I am not sure who or what the SNP will be reconciled with. A peaceful, calm time for the party and a flourishing of ideas, strategies and techniques for office in Holyrood and participation in Westminster. A lasting result for the SNP.
d. Negative developments. PAGE OF PENTACLES - "A young sergeant-at-arms stands looking out at the horizon. Represents looking around at one's own economic horizon for something new to get into. An alternative meaning is the preparedness to take on new responsibilities as the young sergeant gets ready to be an officer."
This might indicate complacency and a feeling of entitlement, and the SNP may read more into the result than necessary - there might be people on the radical edge of the party believing this gives them a mandate for independence - the candidate has already stated that he would get "homesick" at Westminster and supposing he would be there only five years or so before independence. The SNP need to avoid getting too hopeful that this marks the beginning of the end for the Union - it may be just a protest vote that will return to Labour at the next general election.
e. Eventual Outcome. PAGE OF WANDS - "Learning and/or travel is shown here, as the Page prepares himself for a journey which will take him through foreign lands, suggested by the mountains/pyramids shown behind him in the distance."
A dynamic situation with as-yet unrealised potential - potency and possibilities only beginning to be realised. If the SNP can remember that independence from England would not bring huge dividends and would mean the end of free healthcare given the size of the taxbase of comparable countries like Ireland, and thus would impose financial hardship on constituents, then they can use this potential within the Westminster system and help Scotland to flourish without being too dependent on English money or being a participatory force within the Union. The SNP have the possibility to speak up for Scotland but are foolish to claim that any victory here enhances the possibility of actual independence.
LABOUR
a. Impact of Result. THE WORLD - "A very successful period is opening up for you. The achievement of an important objective in your life. Aim still higher, because the higher you aim the better. Dealing with the building blocks of reality. Entering a period of completing a karmic debt."
The impact of the result is one of transcending possible defeats and turning it into a victory over other forces elsewhere. Although the polls and cards still point to an SNP win, the force is still with Labour enough to get a positive outcome from this result. It really depends on how Brown reacts and how the English polls react, because the opposition is still fragmented over the UK as a whole. If the Tories are not winning in Scotland other diversions may be in place to minimise the damaging aspects of defeat.
b. Direction afterwards. KNIGHT OF SWORDS - "If this represents a person, it shows the querent or a man that they are closely associated with in a conflict situation. The Knight may be on their side or an adversary. This card can sometimes suggest the use of conciliation and negotiation rather than the continuation of hostilities. If it represents a process, it points to the need to prepare for battle, the kind of battle being suggested by the surrounding cards."
Brown will be anxious to try to quell any potential fall-out from this and although at one point it threatened to destroy his premiership it no longer has the power to do that. However, he is going to need to be able to turn the agenda away from this quickly and use some of his new potency to stop trouble spreading. There is an ounce of profligacy in this - spending his way out of his own recession - but he is not paralysed by this result, rather energised.
c. Positive developments. VIII SWORDS - "Frustration. The need for patience. If the woman struggles against the limiting power of the swords (i.e. her situation at this time), then she will only succeed in hurting herself. Here she must exercise self-control and wait until a change takes place in her situation before she dissipates any further energy in trying to set herself free."
This is the party exercising restraint (since this is a positive development, the card is said to be "exalted" or, in political parlance, have the best spin put on its appearance) and understanding their strengths as well as worrying about their weaknesses. However there is little to be absolutely positive about and this is also a warning to the party that it is dangerous to struggle or behave in a pessimistic, or paranoid manner. This is not ultimately a defeat - the Tories are still not gainng in a place where they ought to be bouncing back to form any kind of a government. Labour cannot afford to panic here, and because this card is exalted, they understand this and learn from this defeat. Brown did not panic during the spring and summer, and Labour will not sack him when he is at his most effective.
d. Negative developments. WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Excessive use of intoxicants. Overfunding. Overexpenditure. Huge debts. Expense account. Massive mortgage."
This is all metaphorical, but Labour need to avoid "overspending" their political capital here and carry on with what they are doing elsewhere. They no longer have a make-or-break situation on their hands, but it could still upset their recovery in the polls across the whole of the UK if the Tories remain sanguine or do not also lose from this or other issues that crop up between now and November 6. Labour need to move on from this as there may be little they can actively do to propel themselves back into a positive lead altogether.
e. Eventual Outcome. IV SWORDS - "The lifting of tensions. A young knight rests on the ground while above him we see three swords being lifted away. Beside him lays another swords, which is his."
Brown is not so much bouncing back here but doing what he does best in a crisis - remaining calm, using the qualities of steadiness and patience that he possesses in spades, and allowing even defeat to wash over him. The air is cleared - no panic will result, no leadership issue will be brought forward, and he is able to get on with his job in relative peace.
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY
a. Impact of Result. DEATH - "The Death card shows that one complete period of your life is coming to a close, to make way for a new one which is beginning. We see here the cosmic street sweeper, clearing away all the debris to make way for new life forms to come along. Without that process of purification that new life would just get choked out and be denied its chance of existence."
Death is often downplayed in the modern tarot because in many private readings the emphasis is on advice rather than prediction and transformation is often regarded as positive rather than negative. However, endings are endings. You could think that what was bad for Labour would be good for the Tories, but this here is counter-intuitive, indicating that it may come too late to stop internal discomfort within the Tory party, or that failure in Glenrothes actually begins to call Cameron's approach to voters north of the border into question. To win a general election the Conservatives have to making waves in Scotland; the party has downplayed its prospects in Glenrothes but this card's processes could even call Cameron's leadership into question.
b. Direction afterwards. KING OF SWORDS - "If this card represents a person, it shows the querent or a man whom they are associated with in a situation of having won a great victory. By looking at the surrounding cards, we would be able to tell the nature of the victory and whether it has worked to the querent's advantage. If it represents a process or an event it suggests that you do not have to continue struggling. Rather, it might show that the right time has come to reassess whether the time is right for consolidation. In other words, for taking benefit of the gains already achieved."
The way surrounding cards indicate the impact of the Glenrothes vote for the Tories, it suggests to me that the party is bullish for a bit longer, trying to make maximum gain out of the result. With Death nearby, although purification does not necessarily have to mean physical or political death, it does tend to be a negative card dressed up as a positive result. However, the Tory bullishness represented by this card could mask more difficulties than provide solutions; their difficulties might not come to the fore quite yet because of the masking effect but they may not wholly disappear.
c. Positive developments. X SWORDS - "Major changes - not always ones that are desired - but the negative aspect of these can be minimised or completely reversed by going along with them and in that way turning them to your advantage."
This is the positive aspect of one of the most negative cards in the pack - that destruction of something usually leads to change and rebirth. The prognosis is still not good, but at least this result will produce needed change and endings, and, since no-one has ever quite managed to destroy the Tories despite hundreds of attempts over the last twenty years* this is a positive development - though not necessarily for existing personnel. A reshuffle or even a leadership contest could now be seen to be, quite literally, on the cards.
*(most notably by some on their own side - Michael Gove's article on the eve of the 2004 conference suggesting that the Tories would come third at the 2005 election and with the subtext that he was angling for leadership of this benighted incarnation is not forgotten by Parliament of Fowls, and has meant that every time he opens his mouth to speak on policy I am reminded of his irritatingly callous refusal to help the party who had just given him a safe seat after a month or two of membership and I de facto do not take him seriously. How he managed to square this one with his local party I don't know, because had I been the association chairman I would have demanded his resignation immediately.)
d. Negative developments. VII PENTACLES. "Hard work, but approaching the harvest time. Notice how in this card we are only approaching our harvest time, i.e. a point where we can witness all of our efforts paying off and materialising. The figure in the card shows someone working a hoe, not a scythe or other cutting instrument. The hoe is used for making water channels through which the plants can receive water. As he stares at the ripening crop, we become aware that it is still not yet ready to be plucked. As you can see, some of the Pentacles are still very small on the plants."
The Tories have not made the effort here to try and improve their results in Scotland. They have neglected their crops and let the SNP run away with the prize. The intuitive thing from Cameron's point of view is to let the SNP reap the harvest and in the glare of negative publicity, see Brown go down the pan alongside Labour's chances of winning the next election. However this crop is withering on the vines, for two reasons. One, it is naive to believe that events will not conspire, as they have in the last month, to cancel out the bad effects of Glenrothes with better news elsewhere. Two, the Tories have not realised that winning Scotland back is necessary to gain power in the rest of the UK. Becoming a narrow English interest group will neither win them a working majority, nor maintain them in government over the long term. A fragmentation of the opposition was what did for Michael Howard in 2005 because the Liberal Democrats split not only northern and Scottish/Welsh opposition to Labour, they even prevented them from winning southern marginals like Watford, Harlow, seats in the Home Counties and the south-west, not to mention more urban seats in Bristol and Southampton. The Tories need to speak for the whole of the United Kingdom and cannot assume that what is bad for Labour is automatically good for them. Complacency is the thief of electoral success.
e. Eventual Outcome. KNIGHT OF CUPS - "This card shows an individual or a situation involving an individual in which strong emotions are involved. The person could be a lover, a friend, or a symbol of how the querent is interacting with others emotionally. In a man's cards, it would show either him or a friend; in a woman's cards it would generally show a man in her life, or the 'male' (active) side of her personality."
This card for me has come to signify David Davis - during the spring it appeared constantly as an opposition or question for the Tories in otherwise fairly benign outcomes. Nevertheless here it may be a more general sign of trying to troubleshoot the party - warped by the intensity of Death and the Ten of Swords it may be that this is a rescue package of some sort to prevent the Tories going under at a time when we need coherent opposition to Labour rather than a collection of squabbling oppositional factions which have allowed Labour two successive general election wins after the "Ground Zero" approach of 1997. This is the possible alternative to what has evidently failed so catastrophically elsewhere.
