Tim Montgomerie has been assessing the way forward for the Conservative Party on Conservative Home. The only problem is that the Conservative leadership seems to be failing to stop the slow decline in its poll ratings, given the recent forecasts. Are they actually listening to Tim, who is regarded as a friendly voice, and in that case, will it do any good to arrest the current trend and revive the prospect of more than a bare majority at the next election?
DCMX on the most recent thread suggested that the "Cameroons" were not the best listeners to external voices. Personally I would be sceptical of a leadership who reacted to every single commentator and took too much notice of external opinion. However it seems that Conservative Home should be an integral part of an informal advisory network, since it is populated by the "new Tory" constituency who are basically friends of the party and receive exclusive briefings from MPs and the Shadow Cabinet. If anyone can inform the Conservative Party, Conservative Home might well be the first in line to give that advice.
Without further ado, let's get on with the actuality of the situation as suggested by the tarot. Glenrothes is already written but since polling day is still almost a week into the future, it will be up as well some time this evening. Despite an infected cut making my index finger painful every time it touches the keyboard, I'm still finding questions to try and answer. Please let me know whether you can follow these card spreads without images through the comment system - I have found an alternative way of posting thumbnails after my last attempt backfired somewhat because the width of the column limits the horizontal size of the frame.
For a bit of variety I thought I would use the Cico Books Dragon Tarot written by the interestingly named Nigel Suckling. Presumably a pig-totem then.
S. Situation. SEVEN OF SWORDS - "Hope appears after a long struggle but keep your guard up. You face opposition to your plans and it would be wise to learn its source, but you can achieve your aims if you persevere and be certain of your facts. Avoid direct confrontation, however; let your ideas speak for themselves."
This is the situation at the junction between Montgomerie and the "Cameroons" - NB I don't normally buy into memes meant to insult their owners, but I have to admit my word for the current Tory leadership would not be commonly understood outside my immediate friends. It is trying to explain the relationship between Conservative Home and CCHQ, and a respected, sympathetic opinion-former on the other. This suggests that there are fewer correspondences than one might hope for, and that things are already somewhat at cross-purposes. Nevertheless it is encouraging that the Seven has come up rather than the Five or the Ten because that means that some progress has been, can be or is being made.
1. External Tory Position regarding the Ten Next Steps. THE HIGH PRIESTESS - "Inspiration, learning, mystery, understanding of the inner workings of life, enlightenment and serenity are all representated by this card, with a hint that serenity can sometimes lead to emotional detachment from daily events. Often this card implies that hidden spiritual factors are currently affecting your life, so look carefully within or consult a respected adviser."
Cameron and his team are evidently not making any sudden or public moves to betray any sign of changing their course due to pressures from one particular person or site. This is expected from the perspective of the leadership in that responding too sharply to one suggestion or group of suggestions may end up looking panicked or in hock to special interests when the party should be developing its own response. However this is also detachment creeping in - when is it safe to acknowledge advice and even encourage and solicit it from one's own members? The Tories need to show signs that they are listening to their own party, particularly advisers such as Tim who are regarded as being of the same tendency or faction that Cameron belongs to.
2. Internal Tory position regarding the Ten Next Steps. KING OF PENTACLES - "The King of Pentacles is wealthy, confident, commanding, inspiring, intelligent, mathematical, straightforward and determined. He is conservative, hard-working, and leads by example. He is equivalent to Jupiter in astrology, the jovial ruler of the other planets and bounteous dispenser of wealth, which he naturally attracts. He is a loyal friend, a wise counsellor and a reliable, if cautious, partner."
I get the feeling that the Tory response is two-fold. One, they are asking whether Montgomerie is in possession of the Holy Grail, or whether he is simply just one of a number of competing interests who does not necessarily have all the right answers. Two, would what he suggests play well enough with voters outside Westminster to change their course solely to bring what could be a minority voice on board? Current Conservative Home campaigns and issues focus on a review of the license fee, which excites only those perceiving anti-Tory bias in the corporation after the handling of Yachtgate and the Russell Brand/Jonathan Ross affair, hardly a pressing issue in Peoria - or Portsmouth. The Tories are displaying their own methods of continuing forwards, and as a response to advice the King of Pentacles is more in tune with his own intuition and substance than concerned about taking others' feelings into account.
3. Reasons for the Ten Next Steps - Tim Montgomerie's viewpoint in writing them. THE FOOL - "A new beginning with fresh adventures ahead, although there is a very real danger of it all going horribly wrong. The bag on the Fool's shoulder represents natural talents that he could usefully employ if he took the trouble to open it, but he generally doesn't. For wild optimists this card is a warning to try and temper enthusiasms with a little common sense. For pessimists, it suggests lightening up a little."
The Tories are at a critical stage and the roots of Montgomerie's concerns are evidently that the party needs to adjust itself to cope with the poll-slide rather than naively trotting forwards as if things were still going in an upward direction. The clash comes where the party believes it can cope on its own and by utilising existing strategems to turn things back in a favourable direction; Tim sees it more as needing to temper this naive assumption with some sounder advice from a still-sympathetic commentator. The result is that Tim is getting through but the party believes itself to be still fully in control of its own destiny whereas Montgomerie is increasingly worried by its current direction.
4. Results of the Ten Next Steps - Tim Montgomerie's viewpoint. SEVEN OF WANDS - "Success is likely, even though the odds appear to be stacked against you. Victory will be all the sweeter for the effort it takes you, and sweeter still if you just quietly get on with doing whatever is necessary without complaint. Others may be trying to undermine you, but just talk things through with them openly and the threat will go away."
This shows more that Montgomerie is getting through to Team Cameron and that there is some benefit to him writing this advice; however there is no indication that DC and co will put anything into practice directly and visibly before they find themselves past the point of no return. Montgomerie is trying to get them to put a bit more thought into projecting their core message but may be hamstrung in the party's eyes by them seeing him as a narrow sectional interest with impracticalities in his approach. It is filtering through quietly but the party cannot afford to risk his strategy being wholly right.
5. Advice to the Tories from other commentators. QUEEN OF PENTACLES - "The Queen of Pentacles is regal, generous and diplomatic, ruling her suit in close partnership with her King and in much the same manner, although with perhaps a touch more warmth and understanding of human frailty. She has a good grasp of finances as well as being a generous and welcoming hostess. The card represents either someone you should turn to or qualities you need to cultivate."
The Queen suggests that most commentators advise the Tories to be more open with their policies and alternatives to Labour - the Queen often represents administration or "household" management, and the qualities associated with its success. Thus most commentary suggests the Tories need more of a directly materialist approach to the British "household" to impress voters who are worried about the mismanagement of the public household by Labour but are beginning to see the government as more virtuous in austerity and the Tories a riskier proposition in the full teeth of a recession. I joined the Conservative household because I saw Keynesianism in action in Poland and decided that it actually suppressed a fragile economy and by 2003 the Polish economy was suffering from high taxes, low revenue, and no incentives to employment, precipitating the exodus to Britain in 2004 when they joined the European Union. It cured me of my romance with Labour and combined with the strong, administrative-orientated leadership of Michael Howard replacing the lukewarm Iain Duncan-Smith and frankly laughable William Hague, I finally came home to the Tories who seemed to be able to see an alternative. The Tories now need to convince people outside the economic fraternity of the LSE that their proposals are more attractive than tax-and-spend in a recession.
6. Warnings to the Tories from other commentators. SIX OF CUPS - "The immediate future promises to be full of interesting options and possibilities but you may miss out on them if you spend too much time dwelling on the past. Nostalgia can be taken too far."
This suggests the Tories have not caught up with the current crisis because they are seen to rely on things which have been successful in the past - the economics of growth - rather than being able to realign themselves with the politics of recession. Labour lost in 1992 because despite the downturn they did not look able to govern at a time of crisis because they assumed an economy with plenty of slack to spare for increased spending. Now the Tories have not yet articulated the difference in their approach which would be comparable to more of the same under Brown and Darling's stewardship of the economy, bad as it may have been in the past. The Tories cannot rely so much now on the previous mood prior to October 2008 and commentators are asking for more solutions and less breezy spin.
7. Approach to criticism by the Conservative leadership. EIGHT OF CUPS - "Restlessness causes you to question many aspects of your life and possibly with good cause, as maybe it is time for some major changes. But remember that is is your own restlessness and need for a sense of purpose that is driving you. Others will not appreciate being blamed for what is basically your problem."
Team Cameron are showing signs of thinking, and contemplation is another aspect of this card - which has the subtext in many books that "the well has run dry" - previous approaches have failed and you need a rethink. The card is passive rather than active - rethink therefore needs re-orientation, a publicity drive aimed at voters rather than seminarians at the LSE, and a hardening of thoughts into policy along the lines of the 2004 Timetable for Action, which resonated on marginal doorsteps and gave the Tories the half-way swing of roughly 6% which put Cameron in an enviable position when he took office three years ago. Team Cameron are a supertanker when it comes to U-turns, but if they can turn around before Christmas they will have translated this rethink into response.
8. Outcome of this approach. THREE OF SWORDS - "Argument and strife threaten your plans. Be patient. Separation, frustration and disillusionment all loom, but if you hold onto your long-term goals they can still be realised - you just have to work out who your real friends are. Break-ups are always painful, but totally necessary in the long run."
This card has a habit of falling out of the pack just when I am feeling rather queasy, and I always end up being lavishly sick by the small hours of the morning. This is not a good omen at all - if it comes up in an outcome, you should brace yourself for defeat and, once the nausea, headaches and vomiting subside, try another route to the goal in question. The Tories are in the problematic situation where any rethink will turn in to a return to previous policies or a reshuffle (at the very least) rather than a response or change for the better. I am not kidding myself that I have Cameron's ear, but if he is reading this, the Three is very rarely the kind of card I would want in any spread dealing with the outcome of any approach. I hope the headache doesn't last too long and that Dave feels better once he has thrown up, because in this case even Nurofen isn't going to work.
9. Did they listen to Tim? THE DEVIL - "Whether or not you are fully conscious of it, you or someone in close proximity are already bound to some self-destructive attachment that can only end in tears. It is time to listen to your own inner voice of wisdom and a way out will soon become clear. The misfortune threatened by this card is not a force of nature, but a consequence of choice.
I will give Cameron the benefit of the doubt here and say that if he can begin to reorientate himself and adjust his direction NOW he may well stave off bigger problems in the future. However, the saying, "You have made your bed and have to lie in it" may be appropriate as here in the outcome section we have the cards that were perplexing me in the internal development section a week or so ago, and propelled me into writing this blog in the first place. It is never too late - I was once told that by an angry secretary of a language school in Poland who I had kept waiting too long with a job offer open and had not accepted it because of another offer elsewhere which evaporated after rapid change at the top - only to have her ring me up a fortnight later to be told the offer was still open. Nevertheless, in politics, the opportunism of others is more alive than in the dizzy world of English as a Second Language teaching, and if Cameron doesn't listen someone else may be only too happy to oblige.
10. Ultimate outcome. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - [Because of the proximity of the Three of Swords and The Devil, I am reading this card as ill-dignified.] "Bad luck, obstruction, betrayal and indifference all conspire to bring you to a standstill. This is a bad time for new undertakings and also for gambling. Concentrate on small, practical achievements that will bear fruit. Practice cheerfulness in the face of adversity. It will pass."
Because of the way tarot works, this card is read in conjunction with others, particularly as an outcome. It introduces an element of chance out of the control of the commentators or parties. As it is ill-dignified, it represents bad luck, not good; the roll of God's dice which led to 9/11 at the peak of a period of global prosperity, for example, or the way in which the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody provided Labour with a crushing defeat in an extremely safe English seat. However if the steps taken in the Three of Swords and The Devil are anything to go by there will be a decisive moment whereby either the Tories will have to put up, or Cameron may find himself shutting up - permanently or otherwise. Yachtgate was too close to Betsygate for my liking and given that advice taken leads to a disappointing conclusion to this spread, I'm not altogether sure what the Tories can do to avoid a more fundamental and radical change of direction.
I'm off to take a shower but I will post the results of the Glenrothes spread later on.
