Remind me when I become Prime Minister to make sure that the death of an MP automatically triggers a by-election, because this by rights should have been fought months ago and, while the Tories delayed moving the writ for Henley until after Nantwich and Crewe (a move which made me think that even at the height of their popularity they were rather too paranoid for a party 20% ahead in the polls), this by-election is due to the unfortunate passing of John MacDougall in the summer.
An unsourced comment on the Wikipedia page for the by-election suggests that "There is speculation that this date was chosen to coincide with the fallout of the US Presidential Election, thus blocking media coverage of an embarrassing result for Labour". The timing of by-elections should, almost by definition, be removed from party political control to make sure they are run in the fairest and most equal way possible for all the parties, given that the timing of the Hartlepool by-election in 2004 meant that both Labour and Liberal Democrats could make their case during the party conferences but the Tories had to rely solely on their own localised campaigning without the benefit of having held their conference as well before polling day. It is also said that Michael Howard altered the timing of his speech that year to ensure the probably negative coverage of the by-election (Tory fourth place in that poll, behind UKIP) did not usurp his place in the spotlight, but since it had already been held, he could not make the same impact Tony Blair and Charles Kennedy could during their annual events. Therefore the timing of by-elections should be automated to ensure the party which moves the writ cannot manipulate the polling date.
This is a much more pressing debate, in fact, than the issue of the BBC license fee, which will be tomorrow's subject thanks to Charles Moore's intervention into the question and the Tories' latest attempt to jump the shark on issues no-one really cares about beyond the latest stupid headline about Jonathan Ross, Russell Brand and Andrew Sachs' granddaughter.
Without further ado, the spread. In this case, like for most by-election spreads I've done (including NWC, which I will post at some point, possibly after Glenrothes, as the input and output sections puzzle me tremendously - because it implies the wrong candidate won), I have taken the two front-running parties, Labour and the SNP.
Because I have little bias in this question, I feel able to keep this at arm's length; in most other by-elections I've participated in, I have usually been more partisan and had my judgement clouded by emotional considerations. Assessing the possibilities I have to say neither party would get my vote, except if I was voting tactically, because Alex Salmond abuses the English taxpayer by slashing Scottish prescription charges and taxes while asking Westminster for another £1bn bailout. I have lived in Ireland, a country of similar size and tax-base to Scotland, and had to pay full whack for medication and doctor's appointments.
If the SNP desires independence so badly, they should look at how Ireland is unable to afford a free health service and even the £7+ charge we English still have to pay pales beside the cost of prescriptions in Ireland. I have paid for medicine in Poland and Latvia, and in both countries the cost of drugs is steep compared to local purchasing power. Why should the Scots get free medicine at England's expense? Alex Salmond should be given a period of, say, five years wholly independent of Westminster subsidy and see how much of what he puts through in Scotland can actually be afforded solely on the back of Scottish taxpayers.
There goes the opinion, now let's look at the cards.
LABOUR
I drew four cards for the progress of the campaign and one extra to summarise the overall prospects. Back to Douglas for the explanations of the cards. Douglas and Suckling are equally good at predictory explanations, whereas Donaldson (used for the Yachtgate readings) is good for advisory spreads.
L. Overall prospects. QUEEN OF SWORDS - "She is highly intelligent, has a complex personality and is concerned with attention to detail and accuracy in all things. She is alert to the attitudes and opinions of those around her and skilled at balancing opposing factions whilst she furthers her own schemes. She is self-reliant, swift-acting, versatile and inventive."
Labour are not taking anything for granted here and are perhaps sacrificing confidence for care in fixing up every last vote that they can take back. By-election I have been on with Labour* have always shown the party to be confident in their success and even arrogant at times, but this campaign is much more closely fought, suggesting the machine has learned the lessons of Nantwich and Crewe and Glasgow East and is concentrating on putting a rational message out rather than trying to call the SNP names.
*(or as a Tory with my Labour-supporting ex-boyfriend playing gooseberry at the Hodge Hill campaign in 2004, mainly because neither of us could bring ourselves to explain to his Blairite friends that I had crossed the floor - I sat there bullsh*tting for all I was worth about why I wouldn't be going to conference later on in the year at a New Labour party the next day and then slunk off upstairs to read my book in peace. If you think Labour activists are bad now, you should have seen them there, most of them were crapping themselves at Michael Howard so he wasn't all that bad a leader if he could scare my boyfriend and his friends...)
1. Beginning of the Campaign - X WANDS - "The triumph of force. Great good fortune which has become the means of oppression. Obstinacy and fixed ideas which serve to repress society into a static mould. Power which has no end beyond the expression of itself. The burden imposed by a surfeit of success."
Labour have been so successful for so long that their machine cannot in general cope with the surge in support for alternative governing parties (the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland) that they began this campaign in hock to the rigidities of thinking that this card often highlights. This mode assumed success and took other parties for granted as necessary but superfluous annoyances. After poor results in the spring and summer the party was crippled by the end of boom and the beginning of bust, thereby forcing the party to try and accept that its time in government was coming to an end. The Ten of Wands represents this burden perfectly and is seen here as Labour trying to reignite its sense of once again being back in opposition to the prevailing political winds.
2. Initial response to conditions - KING OF WANDS - "A man who is noble and courageous, and who exhibits qualities of great strength and fortitude. He is virile and passionate and has a loyal and generous nature. He is a lover of traditional ways and family life. He tends to act swiftly when provoked, yet on occasion may find it hard to be decisive because his essentially just outlook enables him to see every side of a problem. He often acts a mediator and is splendid at giving moral support."
This is Labour rediscovering a more pro-active and aggressive demeanour and means the prospects are not as bleak as they could have been if the lessons from the Ten had not been absorbed and used in developing that all-important narrative and agenda. The Kings are all in control of their suit, and the King of Wands is a good tactitian who is able to say and do the right thing at the right time. Labour are looking better and more responsive as a result of their time in the wilderness and are able to turn things around to their advantage because of more favourable winds emerging at a time when they looked more desperate than ever.
3. Development of the campaign - PAGE OF WANDS - "He is ambitious and resourceful, enthusiastic and adaptable. He is a messenger who brings good tidings, stimulating news, witty gossip. He is by nature faithful and trustworthy, vigorous in the service of those in authority over him."
Labour have developed their campaigning technique to be much more dependent on the needs of their constituents, coming at them with suggestions and requests, rather than orders or diktats. They are soliciting the voters as providers of a service and ultimately presenting themselves as delivery-boys of a particular and popular product - a positive and outgoing message characteristic of what they tend to do best as a political party. It also suggests, however, that they are paying close attention to the votes individually, which, along with the summary Queen of Swords, hints that they might not yet be fully confident of victory and thus lack the necessary confidence in a clean sweep which is often a precondition of psychological victory.
4. Eventual outcome - VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds the promotion of understanding and cooperation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."
Labour are not therefore certain to win - and I still feel a bit queasy when I try to picture them winning, suggesting to me my sixth sense still has a block on that idea. But the movement which has come out of these cards tells me that there is momentum on their side which will keep them in the fight until close of poll and get the best result possible.
THE SCOTTISH NATIONALIST PARTY
I drew cards for the same four positions and the fifth for a summary card.
S. Overall Prospects - THE CHARIOT - "Success, triumph over the obstacles life throws in one's path. Secure progress, victory achieved through personal effort, the triumph of initiative. Not success which is inherited or the product of fortune."
The SNP are going flat out with confidence in victory and striking while the iron is hot to push forward into another Labour seat in Scotland after taking Glasgow East in July. However with The Chariot also comes reckless force which can be dangerous to the wielders and riders in the cart pictured on the card. Therefore, while the SNP feel they have a good chance and are taking the opportunity when it comes, they could be going too fast and not noticing the detail of the specific campaign.
1. Beginning of the Campaign - ACE OF PENTACLES - "Security, firm foundation, wealth, possessions, appreciation of physical beauty, sensuousness. The faculty of sensation. Material comfort, appreciation of the good things of life, the approach to the Spirit through the things of Earth. Stoicism, the ability to endure adversity with steadfastness."
The SNP began effectively with an open goal and the confidence of having won Glasgow East, which meant that as well as having executive power - what I believe can be interpreted or divined through the suit of Pentacles with regards to politics - in Scotland as a whole. Their potential is therefore solid and steady here. There is a good reason to expect an SNP win even though as an English Conservative I disagree with their use of executive power to spend today and ask for more money from Westminster tomorrow - in the middle of a crisis as well. Their ability to use executive power to their own electoral benefit is similar to Labour's own a few years ago.
2. Initial response to conditions - KNIGHT OF SWORDS - "He is courageous, strong, highly skilled and at his best in a difficult situation. He indicates the approach of battles that must be fought and enemies who must be defeated by strength of arms. He is the archetypal warrior."
Similar to The Chariot, this card often indicates a touch of recklessness and daring-do which could get out of control if it is not tempered with a more methodical and concentrated approach. Psychologically the SNP obviously have supreme confidence in their own ability to win this, and are not as obsessed as Labour appear with catching every last vote. They are charging forward but they have transferred the energy from material to mental, relying more on promise than record. This is a risky strategy as a more focussed and grounded approach is healthier during a recession which could see projects and spending plans cut back, including the promise of free prescriptions if the money cannot be found. The SNP are in danger of dulling their ability to prove their worth at Westminster as a result.
3. Development of the campaign - X SWORDS - "Desolation, disruption and ruin - generally referring to a group or community rather than an individual. But cause for hope is suggested here. This card represents the nadir - the lowest point in this cycle of fortune. From now on things can only get better [where have I heard that before?!]. The worst has already been experienced."
The SNP may even have hit the buffers here and although I still believe they may win it, the tactics of The Chariot and the Knight of Swords are no longer able to convince voters. They show the difficulties of putting promises before actual record (as shown in the Ace). The "nadir" gives the SNP time, however, to turn things around, given that this is the penultimate and not the climactic card. However it could also mark the start of the Labour recovery - because of the rise of Brown's personal stock rising over the last month - and the diminishing of prospects for the Scottish Nationalists.
4. Eventual Outcome - IX WANDS - "Great strength and stability which cannot be overthrown. Courage in defence and victory in attack. Assurance that opposition will be defeated. Reveals that one is in a safe and secure position which is unassailable."
Contrasting with the previous card, and with the card in the same place for Labour, the Nine indicates the ability of the SNP to fend off the Labour counter-attack, and defend their position well. As I said, my feelings are that the Nationalists will manage to overturn the Labour majority, despite Brown's rise in popularity over the last month. Defence here beats an uncontrolled and unmanaged offence.
ULTIMATE RESULT CARD - V WANDS - "Opposition which requires mental agility to be defeated. Conflicts which cannot be avoided, tests that must be passed for further success to be attained or present achievement continued. Upheavals which call forth all resources of ingenuity and leave nothing secure. Indicates that the prize will have to be fought for relentlessly if it is to be gained."
In the Norse sagas, the story of Ragnarok concisely detailed the end of the world. WIthin it are many different battles, but one is between Heimdall and Loki: "age-old enemies, [they] will meet for a final time, and neither will survive their encounter." While I'm not sure Brown lives up to the shining character of Heimdall, nor does Alex Salmond plumb the depths of the sinister Loki, this card in this position for this event conjures up that line. This is not a clearly obvious result; both sides are evenly matched and although one party must eventually win, this card suggests not only a dead heat, but a destructive or exhausting one like the match between Heimdall and Loki. By-elections are always keenly fought and although the SNP started with a massive advantage, Labour have clawed a lot back in the last month and the SNP acted recklessly enough that the result is now in the balance. There can be only one winner, but both Heimdall and Loki are destroyed by their duel, and it could be that in the event of an SNP win Labour will have clawed back enough ground to make it respectable enough, whilst the SNP will have thrown a lot of promise away and done their reputation enough damage in the long run that Salmond has to rein in some of his radicalism and rethink policies he once thought would win the hearts and minds of the Labour establishment.
