Parliament of Fowls

Still in Tartu, relaxing in what has turned into a thaw and deep freeze. Off early tomorrow to Riga; have also discovered the value of long-johns after ending up with extremely wet and cold feet from wading through melting snow. Here in Tartu my Russian is almost worthless as 90% of the population (excluding the other guests at the hotel here) is Estonian, although in Riga it will once again come in handy. I did ask the receptionist in Tallinn whether her was offended by me talking to him in Russian. The Balts are notorious for their rejection of Russification and they prefer to be addressed in English or German first. But...

"No, I am not offended," he said. "After all I am Russian."

Estonian politics have more or less stabilised after the last few turbulent years; there was obviously a strong show of support for Georgia this summer and a change in government in 2006 brought Toomas Hendrik Ilves to power after the former Soviet premier Arnold Rüütel was ousted in the elections in September that year. Estonia now joins the other two Baltic States in having a president who was not privy to the Soviet occupation, which in my opinion is a little sad that none of the three countries has a president that necessarily shares their compatriots' experiences. My friend Jana from TAPDANCE exemplified a tendency within the Baltic metropolitan elite towards suspicion of the conservative, rural majority. Given that this is a 23-year-old woman talking, with éxperience as an ex-pat under her belt and who didn't start school until the end of the Soviet occupation, I think she is justified in feeling that way. In the UK, parties naturally now try and attract the young, which is what David Cameron was designed to do. The problem as I see it is that most of the people in Estonia - and Latvia, and Lithuania, not to mention other countries in the region - are conservative and, Eastern Europe being as it is, mostly still rural. They are not represented by the media, which has brushed the communist past under the rug except for a few kitsch programmes ridiculing the ephemeral side of the propaganda.

Having watched enough Polish TV while I was out there, the impression I got during the 2003 EU accession referendum was that those pro-Europe were young, fresh and happy, while those opposed were staid, ultra-conservative (The Liga Polskich Rodzin, or League of Polish Families, were the main spokespeople for the No vote - think a Catholic Church sponsored UKIP with shades of fascism implied by the media, which I doubt were there in reality), and frankly quite past it. In reality, the family that I lived with - a divorcee and her two university age children - were not what the media would have wanted to put on its screens as a reason for voting Tak (Yes - a more cynical friend recalled the "Trzy razy Tak" campaign at the end of the Second World War where Poles were exhorted to endorse the Stalinist communist regime which ended up overstaying its welcome by about 40 years). Mrs Zawada - an unfortunate name, given that zawada means a disadvantage - worked as a hospital orderly and private cleaner and struggled to make £100 per month, with an extra £50 coming cash-in-hand from my rent, a reason for her to be worried about me applying for a work permit when I left the university course I was on and enrolled as an English language teacher and tutor to local businessmen. She was voting Yes - but only because she believed that future generations would prosper if Poland went into the EU. Even after the referendum - by the time Poland entered the EU, I had returned home to England - groceries started going up in price.

The problem is only more extreme here than in Britain, where the cult of youth is in full swing, but although these presidents - Vara Vike-Freiburga in Latvia, Valdas Adamkus in Lithuania as well - were born as ex-patriates or exiles, and appeal to the young metropolitan elite, how can a government represent their people if the premier has not shared their electorate's recent history? As democratically elected presidents they do actually enjoy support; Estonia and Lithuania have changed hands only recently (Lithuania after President Rolandas Paksas was impeached in 2004 after a cash-for-citizenship scandal) but Vike-Freiburga has now been there in Latvia for a good long time and brought some stability after a rocky first decade of independence. There is also the local shadow of Belarus and Alexander Lukashenka, with a system which is Soviet in all but name, suggesting the flip-side of trusting those who have experience of the system. However, while Belarus was locked in tight to the Soviet system and had no previous experience of independence the Baltic States were independent, albeit quasi-fascist dictatorships, during the inter-war period from 1918-1940, when Stalin got fed up with not having access to the Baltic and sent in the tanks. National elites in the Baltic States developed a shadow government strong enough to resist Gorbachev's retrenchment in 1990-91, while Belarus became independent by default on the break-up of the Soviet Union. But the success of all three presidents suggests a possibility that their different experiences during the 1940-1991 period may be an asset, as Rüütel barely spoke a word of English yet his successor effectively used it as a working language all his life. I just hope that they keep in mind that their societies are still predominantly rural, conservative and grappling with the legacy of Soviet rule.

While we digest this interesting issue, what about political propaganda? This is Edgar Savisaar of the Central Party in 1995, boxing for Estonia. Nice to see a politician who doesn't mind looking a bit foolish. Perhaps at our next election Gordon and Alistair could come out wearing knuckledusters and carrying a chainsaw - how fitting for the demolition job they appeared to do on the Tories on Monday.

"The Centre Party - fighting for your rights..."

Tere tulemast!

Checking in from Tartu, Estonia after a rollercoaster ride from Gatwick on Monday evening/Tuesday morning, and trying to get to grips with the Estonian keyboard, with its own keys for ö, ä, ü and õ and a rather disconcerting lack of an @ key, despite the media labelling this "E-stonia". Outside is beginning to resemble a nicely iced Christmas cake, after the heaviest snowfall for 20 years - coincidentally, since the end of the Soviet period - blanketed the country. The initial storm having moved on to Stockholm, Tallinn airport only reopened a few hours before my 18:00 flight was due to leave Gatwick. Half a planeload of passengers were left behind on Sunday, meaning the plane, when it did finally take off, resembled a can of sardines, with enough tall blonde Nordic women to fill an ABBA video and enough Russians to fully cast Doctor Zhivago and War and Peace, and leave enough left over to re-enact 1917 - or 1940 as it was here in Estonia - all over again. I wasn't the only English person on the plane ´- there were a few crotchety businessmen moaning about lost contracts and pre-budget reports to fill a couple of seats - but at midnight, as the airport management put our flight back yet again, I decided enough was enough and, in the absence of a certain Mr V. I. Lenin, decided to stage my own revolution.

After all, there were people still waiting for the plane since Estonia declared itself independent in 1990.

There are a number of steps to declaring a revolution.

1. Form your political party. In this case it was me, a girl named Jana, a grandmother who couldn't speak English and a 3 month old baby, but never mind. The Tallinn Air Passengers' Defence Association (No Children Excepted), or TAPDANCE, was formed at 0020 hours as we realised that nothing would make airport management clear the way to reopening the Wetherspoons kitchen. (It didn't stop the infidel running dogs getting very drunk on the vouchers Gatwick provides for use in its shopping centre...sorry, departures lounge if you are delayed more than two hours, but never mind.)

2. Establish your demands. Either a night in a hotel and enough compensation to put Plan B into action (Air Baltic to Riga and train to Tallinn to get to my hotel before they gave up on me completely) or a plane to be chartered forthwith (as happened on the last occasion, when a whole planeload of us were stranded at Gatwick while a BA crew got plastered the night before Christmas Eve and forgot they had another gig that evening ... and make sure you stick to them. Reasonable compromises are permissible, but learning to be assertive rather than aggressive is a big plus. But you also have to know what is possible as well. Chartering a plane was what the police demanded of BA when the airline itself called the fuzz to deal with the irate passengers. In this case it would maybe have worked because there were people there who had had to deal with this two nights in a row, but to Air Estonia's credit they did work extremely hard to get the plane to go out and therefore we were mostly satisfied with their unofficial explanations extracted courtesy of BAA.

3. Get security onside. No use staging a riot and ending up in the cells rather than on your way. Security were fuming - after all we were in the way of essential BAA (British Airports Advertisingaccountandshoppingcentres plc) maintenance so they could shoehorn another couple of shops into what used to be Gates 20-32 - so we formed an alliance with them to make sure we didn't end up getting arrested. At this point the Passenger Revolutionaries (Menshevik fraction) ended up defecting and demanding their luggage back, so to stop the internal turmoil we had to act.

4. Establish contact and issue our demands, which in our case really only amounted to information. Servisair told us 15 minutes. We managed to get them down to 5.

5. This is the point where the revolution was averted by Servisair telling us that the plane was about 15 minutes away from landing at Gatwick. This was also the point when someone got bored and lit a cigarette. For the rest of our stay at Gatwick we had to put up with the tannoy oscillating between "The fire alarm is ringing, please evacuate the area" and "The fire alarm is ringing, but the cause has been found and there is no cause for concern". It was with great relief that we were not too far away from the gate when we were allowed to return to the main area, and the plane in the mean time landed and was cleaned, refuelled and "catered" while we waited - somewhat more patiently than before - in the departure gate.

The key to successful leadership is, in other words, patience but firm politeness. Storming the Winter Palace should only be done as a last resort.

That didn't take too long...

I was about to switch off but Daniel Finkelstein's blog entry caught my eye.

I am rather falling between two stools here. Much as I resent DF's characterisation of all people who were against Cameron as "blue bolsheviks" back in March when the Shadow Cabinet seemed to be in a pickle over seemingly contradictory promises (now set to rest by the spending plan volte-face; I just can't seem to get my head round Cam's positions as I could Howard's - it's like the Two Bears - too hard, too soft but never just right, a problem I had with Tony Blair as well), I have to say, he never struck me as one himself. Having lost the skirmish over tax cuts, much to the delight of Conservative Home, his latest blog shows some interesting moves on his part.

He is calling for Brown to go to the country early.

Now, I said to myself once that if Finkelstein - Vulpes Vulpes no. 94 - went anti-Cambo, Cambo was doomed. So this perhaps deserves an impromptu spread (at 12 cards I can hardly call it a quickie), for which I am reading along the same lines as I analysed Davis' machinations this time last week with three sets of four cards looking at Intentions, Reactions and Outcome.

FINKELSTEIN'S INTENTIONS

1. (Towards) Labour. VI SWORDS

Go on, Gordon, push the boat out and do something to offset the Conservatives. Extraordinary that he has turned into a Blue Bolshevik, but this card means the beginning of purposeful action to bring about something tangible, although it is still in the realm of Swords and thus of ideas and opinions and perhaps presentations. Curious that Finkelstein should be the one who suggests this, but his spat with Conservative Home and losing the Conservative debate over tax should be a cause for consternation in all but Gordon's own private office. Although it could be a trap, the Six of Swords underlies genuine action - at some point there must be a decision made to take action - so this feels to me a genuine attempt to promote Labour at Cambo's expense.

2. (Towards) Conservatives. VII CUPS

The Seven of Cups can indicate that someone is labouring (pardon the expression) under an illusion and needs to have this bubble burst. Here Finkelstein might be suggesting that the Conservatives are still not cognisant of the changed realities, and having changed their own reality may have lost his support, which seems to be critical for him as a major contributor to The Times' editorial division, which has been more supportive of Cameron than of any other Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher. He perhaps wants to give the Tories a chance to recognise they have made a mistake, or he believes they are spellbound victims of their own propaganda. Or he could mean both.

3. Real Opinions. IV SWORDS

He is of the opinion that to him, everything is relative. As a journalist, he is able to take a step back from the fray and discuss the whole battlefield rather than being blinded by the smoke and gunpowder of active service. In this he has nothing to lose from Conservative defeat and more to gain by changing allegiance, just like my (alleged) ancestor Sir William Stanley did on Bosworth Field in 1485, another pivotal year in British politics. It matters little to Finkelfox who wins and who loses, because he is a journalist first and a political figure second.

4. Real Options. IX CUPS

This echoes the previous card nicely and presents a positive spin on Finkelstein's new equivocality. In this country, real power is held by the press - witness the rise and fall of Thatcher, Major, Blair, and Brown, and their opposite numbers: it was all driven by an increasingly media orientated society where as one party over-reached itself, it could be replaced. However, Finkelstein may have bucked the trend here - and support for Brown now may be reading the runes, realising that his foxy comrade is pursuing a different agenda than the one he particularly supports, and thus he wants to prod and goad either Brown into activity or Cameron into changing his mind yet again. As I said above - it's all one to Basil Brush's big brother.

REACTIONS

1. Labour. THE MAGICIAN

It may spark new determination and new resourcefulness in a party which has pulled itself back from the brink of devastating civil war and has the nous and inspiration to conceive plans and the ability through government with a working majority to put it into action. Reading this blog may ephemeralise this action - The Magician is not the most grounded or focussed of action cards in the tarot - but it may nevertheless speak volumes about the possibilities inherent in an early election.

2. Conservatives. PAGE OF SWORDS

The Tories react with predictable rapier wit in Fink's direction - though as Page and not King they stab too fast and too angrily to be seen to base their actions in anything concrete. The Page of Swords, reliant on the tool he is only learning to wield, is the master of spin but is devoid of substance. The Tories will no doubt be hurt by this blog. But their reaction only displays this wound, allowing people to scent fear and blood. Fink may be trying to warn them, he may be trying to undermine them - but he goads them into too much reaction and too little consideration of what that betrays.

3. Real Opinions. X CUPS

This blog is as intangible and inconsequential as the other commentaries. However in this card we have the epitome of spin and ideology - and the lasting value of the Tens of any suit suggest to me that where it comes from and where it goes to makes it much more important than, say, my feeble attempt at coherent criticism earlier which is read by few and noted by none. Finkelstein has the power to change minds and provoke reactions - and these reactions can decide the fate of Prime Ministers and Leaders of the Opposition.

4. Real Options. PAGE OF PENTACLES

This may show the seeds of the coming battle, with Brown increasingly gaining control of the all-important narrative. It may prompt the "run on the Tories" that some have seen coming for a while, because Finkelstein is, as I say above, important enough a commentator to act as a weathervane, just as I often see the media acting on the public through the lenses of my own floating-voter parents and their shifting loyalties. If Finkelstein says "jump", Cameron jumps. If Finkelstein were to say go...

OUTCOME

1. Labour. IV CUPS

This card is all about the appearance of hitherto unforeseen solutions or additional factors clarifying a situation. Labour now have something to work on about the likely leaning of The Times at least, since Finkelstein is so important to the editorial and opinion page content. It gives Labour new hope that the press is still to be won over, and although it only represents opinion rather than solid manifestations of such at an election, it at least gives the government something to go on.

2. Conservatives. STRENGTH

Again, control of negative impulses, with the implication that these exist. Finkelstein has lost some value through having lost the battle for control of party ideology on spending policy, and thus the leadership - for now - can treat him as some unimportant gnat ripe for swatting. But this is only one article. What if it were to seriously influence editorial opinion at The Times? Control of negative impulses at some point has to be translated into neutralisation or absorption of these dark forces rather than hanging on for dear life. If this helps inform CCHQ then it may have done the trick, but since the party is forever tilting at media windmills and deriding constructive criticism from the so-called "Labourograph", holding on may not work in the long term.

3. Real Opinions. KING OF PENTACLES

This is the ideal leader, the constructive controller of the narrative and agenda. Able to put policy into action, the King of Pentacles has absorbed advice and learned lessons to make himself stronger and more able to defend his kingdom. Since this does not appear for either Labour or Conservatives, it suggests to me it actually represents Finkelstein himself - it would fit in a society dependent on the media for information and opinion that the most powerful man in Britain is neither Labour nor Tory - only a mere commentator.

4. Real Options. THE FOOL

The Fool represents the beginning after the end - the movement of (in this case) politics into a new narrative and a new agenda. This coincides with the ending of the mid-term and the (perhaps long) run-up to the next election; therefore whoever can take control of their own side can win the election. Old ideas - that the Tories are odds-on favourites to win the next election - may not hold water for much longer, so the sooner each side can develop its own narrative, the sooner we can get through what may be a long and bitterly-fought election campaign that may bear more resemblance to 1979 than 1997.

Without further ado (and after a surprisingly dodgy boil-in-the-bag duck a l'orange), here is my forecast for the Pre-Budget Report.

PRE-BUDGET REPORT

S. Situation. KING OF SWORDS.

The key to interpreting what the PBR means will be the outcome of the war of words, rather than the concrete results of policy proposals. The King of Swords displays firm leadership, but a reliance on ideas and thoughts rather than a particular track record of action and results, particularly as they will manifest after any election or over the next five years. The clearest objective and perhaps dilemma for all three parties is how clear their respective positions are rather than their long-term sustainability. The situation demands clarity of presentation and short-term actions in the short-term. It is also a definite party political event despite efforts made by Labour to present the proposals as the actions of a "popular front" and their accusations of partisanship on the part of the Tories and their preferred solutions - if any actually exist.

1. Labour Position. VII WANDS.

Labour are still fighting to stand still and have a lot of expectations riding on the result of the PBR to make a successful case for short term tax cuts - and now waste cuttings - in order to stimulate the flagging economy. They hope that this report will enable the upward trend in the polls to continue unabated, turning the Brown Bounce into the Brown Surge. They hope to reassert political hegemony (my mother reckons they already are and that the Tories have returned to the position of underdog) that was  believed irrevocably lost only three months ago. Brown knows he is still staving off rebellion in the ranks and fighting an uphill battle in the press, but he is also genuinely beginning to turn the tide conclusively in his favour - barring any surprises from the Tories - and relishes the challenge as always.

2. Conservative Position. X CUPS.

The Tories seem this week to have re-established their ideological unity and purity in the eyes of some of their right-wing supporters. This card represents perfection of a sort, though in politics the Cups represents idealism/ideology and emotive language rather than any underlying solidity like the Pentacles do. In this case Cameron and Osborne also have a lot riding on the outcome of the PBR. They need to assert their position on two fronts - ideological and substantial - and prove themselves competent at running an economy rather than just apportioning blame for the recent failings. This card suggests they feel they are well-equipped but may still have to find more solid ground to fight on after the PBR has been and gone.

3. Liberal Democrat Position. II SWORDS.

The Liberal Democrats are not so much sitting this one out politically but have the balance of power seemingly in their hands in the event of a hung parliament, as many people are fond of predicting round about this time in the electoral cycle.* Vince Cable has made a name for himself as a competent and largely prescient financial thinker and the Liberal Democrats have swung to the right over the course of Menzies Campbell and Nick Clegg's successive leaderships, partly meaning that the centre-left vote may have returned to Labour, partly suggesting the party has sussed that any shift now will be towards the right and the LibDems can reposition themselves, and partly that the party has always had a fairly conservative membership base even during the significantly left-wing leaderships of Ashdown and Kennedy who famously found "common cause" with Labour. Therefore the LibDems try to have their cake and eat it. What's new? 

*(In actual fact I believe that the way elections are fought - on a narrow, marginal battleground - means any government either has a slim majority or the Opposition takes enough seats to get a working majority, rather than it being a half-way house. On a 6% swing last time round, the Tories won back a number of marginal seats. On another 6% swing, enough seats would then fall to give them a small majority, more than over the first 6%. The similarity of the marginal seats in general means either the government holds them all or the Opposition wins them all. Therefore the occurrence of hung parliaments, while not unknown (1950 and February 1974 spring to mind) are not a common occurrence, unlike in the coalition-based systems on the European continent.)

4. Labour: Internal Discussions. THE EMPRESS

Internally Labour have a balance and a fertility of ideas to deal with this crisis, though they may as a result become weighed down by things going wrong and again start to panic or worse, become complacent that Brown's current status as an asset rather than a liability may continue despite the recession biting hard. Their response to the Tory volte-face performed by Cameron was actually unexpected - less along the blaring Blairite 14billionextraforschoolsandhospitalsyoucan'ttrustthetoriestokeepspendingCUTSCUTSTORYCUTS lines than a more mature and credible outlook that Cameron would deliberately leave businesses and the unemployed floundering while he snips away at budgets so much that essential services are axed - without regard for the special circumstances dictated by a recession. This shows more depth and more confidence in their own position, a firmer base in effect than previously believed.

5. The Conservatives: Internal Discussions. JUSTICE

The Conservatives have made up their minds and put a (temporary?) end to internal discussions by Cameron's essential capitulation to hard-line elements in his party. Regardless of whether it was right or not to do so, he has ripped up 2008, 2007, and 2006 and returned to 2005. This decision may be a good short term tool to shore up haemmorhaging support; it represents somewhat of an admission that the party needs some difference to Labour in order to provide a genuine choice after any election. I personally believe if they can get this right then they deserve to win, because having seen what extreme tax-and-spend led to in Poland during the SLD government of 1997-2005 - 18% unemployment, a bankrupt state, a large grey economy and, on accession to the EU, a brain-drain of lobotomy proportions - I came back to this country in 2003 - five years ago this week - a committed Tory. Justice in the tarot is viewed as a mundane version of Judgement, which I equate with the idea of electoral success of 1997-style proportions. So if the Tories have got this right, it might not be too late for Vulpes Vulpes.

If, however, they have got it wrong...

6. Liberal Democrats: Internal DIscussions. X SWORDS

The Liberal Democrats accept that their high water mark has passed and that they may be finished as an electoral force which could keep the Tories out and Labour in, as they did in 2005. The return to a polarised two-party situation under the Brown-Cameron "axis of weasel" (thank you, Owlperson!) may have impressed upon the LibDems that they have begun to decline again to a pre-1997 role as the fringe party that will never see Opposition, let alone power.

7. Reality of the Situation. III SWORDS

The situation may be that nothing much can clearly be done to arrest the onset of recession and that even the moderate tax cuts proposed will be ineffective in the medium term. Since however the situation depends on presentation and action in the short term - as in the King of Swords - it may not be felt for a while, enabling Brown to cut and run at a time of his own choosing, all other things being equal and the Tories maintaining their current personnel. Pain is inevitable, but the pain of the Three of Swords is mercifully short and eminently curable - a quick trip to drive the porcelain bus or a 24-hour virus rather than a slow, painful cancer.

8. How the Press Interprets the PBR. II PENTACLES

The press presents the changes or movements in the PBR as necessary adjustments rather than radical departures from previous policies or the precious fiscal prudency once beloved of Gordon Brown. In this situation presentation of the reality of the Three of Swords is key - the difficulties and pain are turned into slow progress and relief by words and pictures. It is difficult to say that the government has not responded in a measured or balanced way, rather than coming clean and admitting things are as gloomy as 7 suggests.

9. Outcome for Labour. KNIGHT OF PENTACLES

The government is being profligate but can get away with this because it is seen to act. The actions are forced by circumstances and may later be paid for by higher taxation, but in politics, actions tend to speak louder than words and buy off criticism long enough to come up with something better later on. Although the Knights tend to act first and think later, the solidity of the response - Pentacles again - will for the time being trump those who can only propose ideas and not take action.

10. Outcome for the Conservatives. IV SWORDS

The Tories are put into cold storage here - because of their lack of ability to act and their recent change in direction from which they are still recovering on Monday. Nothing really can be proposed without short-term paralysis of some sort. Osborne has taken four months away from his strategic role to focus on the economy; however the new ability of the Tories to distance themselves from Labour yet the lack of articulation of alternative direction - as demanded yesterday by The Sun - has forced them into hibernation until they can come up with new policies which fit new circumstances.

11. Media verdict. III PENTACLES

A good start and the beginning of a concrete solution to the difficulties the economy - and Gordon Brown - face. Because the current Labour government can think on its feet much more eloquently than its sclerotic predecessors (1974-79 and 1964-70) it can adapt, dismantle and rebuild in order to keep going, much to the Tories' chagrin but in line with the Conservative ability to rejuvenate themselves before each successive win in the 1980s and 1990s. Since Labour is not as brittle as it once was, it can respond properly to difficulties and fix them in ways that Wilson and Callaghan found ideologically difficult. Thus the media are able to move with them too and adapt and build the new narrative to Labour's tune rather than the Conservatives'.

12. Winners. V PENTACLES

For the moment, the country has to plough on doggedly and bear the icy economic winter ahead of it. There are few, if any winners here in the short term while the government rides out the storm. People for the most part already accept and understand that the government has solutions, even if it is reminded by the Tories that it is the government's own doing (partly true, for the Polish reasons above, and partly untrue, as the whole of the Western world has lived beyond its means for so long the bubble had to be burst everywhere sooner or later). This understanding underlies what for many Tories seems to be a counter-intuitive trend, and may dampen hopes that when the recession begins to bite they will automatically blame Labour rather than turn back to them. Though people still to an extent do blame Glum Gordon for the mess, they are unable to place their trust fully in an alternative and therefore default to the incumbent government.

13. Losers. QUEEN OF CUPS

The losers here are those who insist on trying to remain aloof from the crisis in the hopes of coming in later with a mop and broom to clean up; those who expect the Five of Pentacles to work in their favour but do nothing to earn it; those who extrapolate too much and forget about events; and those who neglect strategy in favour of tactics. At her best, the Queen of Cups is naturally intuitive and acts slowly but deftly to reap the rewards. At her worst she is complacent, dozy, vapid and reliant too much on her own fantasies to operate in the real world. (Louise Bagshawe springs to mind.) The Tories here fit the above description and must at some point realise that the country is theirs only if they earn it. Just calling the government ZaNU LIEBOR and hoping the public come running is not enough.

14. Overall trend. THE FOOL

The government here is providing the keys to a new phase of political development where old certainties are wiped away. It is not a new era as such, where a changing of the guard and a fresh start are forecast, but a changing of the emphasis and a new direction for public opinion as the received wisdom of the last year is dissolved. It is not good or bad - just different.

15. Overall outcome. VII SWORDS

There is a lot of pain to bear but because this card shows mechanisms remain to combat the problems in store, it bodes well for the future. Swords represent ideas and presentation; the main issue here is that realism prevails - people understand things are tight but can take the necessary measures to deal with them, coming out fighting. It is no time for mere blame - as some people assume - but there is a need for adjustment and development of mechanisms which can combat and overcome changed economic circumstances.

----

I might not post much more until I get away to Tallinn (I fly out on the 24th but will reach the hotel about midnight so will obviously not be posting anything, and I have no laptop so I will rely mostly on internet cafes to blog while away). Owlperson is doing his talon-tapping act and telling his "little Crow" that the next few days are going to be rather boring to blog anyway, as the big event is Monday. However if anything crosses my screen between now and the 25th I will of course post one or two mini-posts just to keep things ticking over. I will however be writing a little satirical cartoon - Volp loves Vulpi - but that may have to wait till I get back because scanning at internet cafes is usually prohibitively expensive.

See you all later.

Apologies for not posting yesterday - I'm in going-away mode, which means chasing round the house looking for travel adaptors, mini-alarm-clocks, a purse which is not the size of Hamburg and can be easily concealed about one's person (and in one's hand luggage going through security at Gatwick, since Tony Blair allegedly found a nest of terrorists about to blow up half the US and UK with a bottle of Evian and a tube of toothpaste) and thinking which shoes to wear that won't take years to undo before they go on the security conveyer belt and the whole of Surrey passes out from the smell of my feet. Owlperson must be right about the fact I was a German soldier in my last life, I don't set off on holiday with a book, a towel and a bikini, I end up tramping round Eastern Europe as if I was on the way to raise the red flag over Berlin using a paintbox, two boxes of WHSmith's pencils and a caseload of Soviet sex manuals in an obscure Moratovian dialect. (I have an Estonian copy of The Non-Joy of Seks in which the only recognisable word is "pederast" and the exhortation to "Just Say No, Comrade - V I Lenin" is reprinted at the top of  each chapter just like Pravda always used to carry the strapline "Workers of the World, Unite!" and the Torygraph carries the current slogan: "Only 18 months to a Conservative government, chaps!").

However, my addiction to Soviet Balticana can wait while I explain my feelings about the current Conservative direction and the prospects for the PBR. My feeling is that in turning away from Labour's spending plans Cameron has earned my grudging praise - however, I don't believe it is wholly a good idea even if it is more necessary than it was in 2005.

My regard for Michael Howard is well known but it does not mean I am absolutely uncritical of the platform proposed in 2005. First of all, Howard's Shadow Cabinet was rubbish and consists of mostly the same flotsam that make up Cameron's. Personnel changes made by Cameron have largely ignored The Times' criticism of Howard at conference that he would have made a good presidential candidate but in the British parliamentary system he had to buy off too many chancers like Letwin to have a credible team. Who he would have chosen instead is difficult to say, because of the 1997 holocaust wiping out the key 50-60 year old generation which is currently lacking in the Tory Party at the moment, but Letwin being brought back to help Osborne out in my opinion compounds the problem - an over-reliance on academics and part-time bankers - rather than ameliorates it.

Letwin may be behind the current spending-plan volte-face; the Tories may well be damned if they do and damned if they don't at this point but Howard always looked rather stupid touring round a maze of cardboard bureaucrats with Let-lose because it always demeaned the Tories in my opinion that they decided programmes like Sure Start, the centralised NHS computer system and other initiatives which, if implemented properly, could assist the civil service to do their jobs properly and give a "hand-up, not a hand-out" to the less fortunate in society. The Tories are handicapped rather than enhanced by a petty and mean-spirited outlook on public service and public policy. The reason I liked the 2005 manifesto was because it was based around the central premise that the Tories should appeal to ordinary people rather than the City, the shires and squires, and business. Howard appeared to me to be proposing a Christian Democrat version of Tory values, and as a result inspired more personal loyalty on the ground in 2005 than I believe Cameron does now.

I think now it is more "politically correct" - for the want of a better term - to be anti-Labour, and hence the Tories for a while gained a lot of disgruntled support released from the shy Tory syndrome, but for those who believe the polls always swing in the Conservatives' favour during an election, I can only refer them to an article by William Rees-Mogg after the Bournemouth conference in 2004 that confidently asserted that, because the polls had usually been 10% out in Labour's favour at the previous two elections (comparing polling data to actual votes cast) then since the Tories and Labour were level-pegging after the 2004 conference this indicated a Howard victory of considerable proportions. In the event, the polls turned out to be reasonably accurate. Now I suspect there is a "shy Labour" factor built in which is beginning to come out of its shell, thereby Tory leads of 28% were based on the fact that for a year or so admitting to liking Gordon Brown was akin to admitting that they liked being boiled alive. The current readjustment may still leave Labour shy of outright victory, but relying on personalised campaigning, the slogan "We told you so" and "It's their fault" may not win them the election when confronted with typical Labour policy fare - stodgy, calorific, horrifically bad for you but rather filling and hearty nonetheless.

I am glad that the Tories now have a different slogan to fight on than "more of the same whoever you elect". However it may be a tactical gain for a strategic loss. Letting go of Labour's spending plans may pacify people now, but it will mean a winter of number-crunching while they figure out what they now want to plan to spend if they win. How long it takes depends on George and Oliver coming up with something that pinpoints proper waste - not just policies or organisations they take ideological exception to, and if they even think about closing down NHS Direct I'm off - and solutions of their own. Given that they have had three years for this, I suspect George and Oliver will emerge in 2011 with blueprints for government only to learn that Generalissimo Brown and his cabinet are now sitting on an increased majority and David Cameron is remembered only for his stolen bike and a faint whiff of something stronger than tobacco floating about the Leader of the Opposition's office.

My hope is that the Conservative Party now take the opportunity to establish some sort of dynamic message which, while not giving too much detail away, is credible enough to appeal to people who at the last election were - on discovering I was a Tory activist - saying "Michael Howard - pretty forward guy!" and words to that effect (and from another former member of the Labour Party as well). My hope is Cameron will survive the winter. But if he fails to make an impact next week at the PBR, he should stand aside for the time being (with perhaps even an option on inheriting the throne later on once traction in government has been established) and allow someone with more robust substance to carry the party on towards the election victory that should rightly be ours. I'm not naive enough to want him to succeed by words alone - I've been in both parties, in fact I've been a supporter of all three at various points in time - and I feel therefore semi-detached from ideological persuasions. I'm more of a Christian Democrat than a convinced Tory, judging by some of the opinions on Conservative Home which proves to me that the Cameron modernisation was more of a Changing Rooms style makeover, a Potemkin village for those who understand the term, than anything more substantial. Louise Bagshawe profoundly demonstrates that the party has not moved on from the troglodyte days of the 1950s thin-lipped curtain-twitcher brigade, and like IDS is prepared to use a profound human tragedy to push a repressive and prudish social agenda light-years from the "metrosexual" image the Tories have tried hard to cultivate. Fiscal conservatism can march hand in hand with progressive social liberalism, Louise. Attitudes like that you denounce other older people for yet you continue to espouse them yourself. Why?

 I want a Tory government, I sincerely do. Otherwise I wouldn't care about the direction of the party and I certainly wouldn't post ad nauseam on Conservative Home. But I can't bring myself to support someone who has ignored countless opportunities to lay Labour to waste where Howard - had he not stood down in 2005 before the rest of the year - July 7 and the defeat over control orders and Blair's shakiness in office proved him to lack the sort of foresight the Tories still desperately need - would have seized the opportunity and initiative not only on spin but on crunchy alternatives. I cannot help thinking that he jumped before he was pushed and wanted to carry on, both in 2005 and when he stood down in 2006 (there has been a lot of talk on ConHome of getting the next election over with so that the "bedblockers" with all the experience have been shoved out and Vulpes Vulpes' friends predominate; I also have corresponded with Mr Howard on several occasions and his letters are extremely illuminating on this particular point); and I cannot help thinking that the Heir To Blair has ignored some of his Labour mentor's most lasting strategies in favour of tactics which worked for Blair because of underlying substance rather than despite the lack of it.

You've got until I come back from holiday, David, to impress me. I'll be keeping one eye on Britain in the mean time, but I mean to enjoy myself and change the record on this for a bit. Good luck - you'll need it.

I was concerned when people started saying that Gordon Brown ought to be shot, but this is sad.

Please sign up to Barnardo's campaign and please don't write violent or aggressive comments about ANYONE on newspaper message boards or comments pages. Let's keep our dialogue sane and rational.

Wit and wisdom from the Torygraph's excellent Sign Language gallery of the week...

Is David Cameron frightened?

Watching this video on BBC News, you could be forgiven for noticing his eyes wandering dangerously away from the camera. It's strange to watch (even though he says at one point something along the lines of people wanting politicians to look them in the eye and tell them where spending will be cut...sorry where spending will fail to increase) but the eyes appear to have it.

Look at this diagram.

 

The first fox is looking at the interviewer in the direction of the camera, facing the right way. The second fox faces the right way, as Cameron does in the interview, but his pupils are conspicuously looking in the wrong direction. His eyebrows are furrowed and his forehead shiny. The effect was stronger in Jon Snow's interview on C4 news - Foxy was wilting visibly at one stage and argued with Snow for the right of way at one point - but the pupils betray the difficulties Vulpes Vulpes seems to be in.

I've seen Tony Blair in worse straits of course, but that was shortly after he had been made to walk his nine-month long plank.

Do you really think Cambo might be in trouble himself? Any more sweat and he would have rivalled Howard's virtuoso "wriggling politician" act on that Newsnight interview. That would never do.

UPDATE 21:05 - PlayPolitical have uploaded the C4 interview.

Quickie card reading?

BBC VERSION

PAST - II WANDS - proposals for action with a view to the future; but still a bit of work to do to get things unequivocally off the ground.

PRESENT - VII SWORDS - Struggling against the feeling that someone, somewhere has it in for you and has walked out wearing your clothes. Something has been stolen; a bit remains, but the damage is already done.

FUTURE - VIII PENTACLES - Hard work and serious business building a more substantial edifice.

FIGHT OR FLIGHT? - PAGE OF WANDS - Fight for the moment, but only able to prod and provoke rather than master the situation and take control.

C4 VERSION

PAST - KNIGHT OF CUPS - Attempts to promote oneself based on spin and emotive dealings rather than actual substance.

PRESENT - PAGE OF CUPS - Trying to keep things simple and sweet; trying to come across as Little Boy Blue and bring a hopeful, optimistic and innocent message to the voters.

FUTURE - THE CHARIOT - Speeding up but being ripped apart by momentum generated by circumstances.

FIGHT OR FLIGHT? - VIII SWORDS - Unable to move - paralysed by the situation. Limited room for manoeuvre turning into the inability to move forward or back.

Another day, another poll.

3%. Lead. Tories. The sound of breaking crockery on a tiled kitchen floor springs to mind.

This one is from MORI and as such is a poll without a home; although it has been picked up by the Independent it isn't their official poll which normally comes out in the last week of the month. Mike Smithson on politicalbetting.com (another site dedicated to political predictions that also spends most of its time talking about Cameron, in very favourable terms; proof if ever was needed politics can never really produce objective analysis unless the site is, like Politics Home, filled with more tracker widgets than words) explains:

I’ve been in contact with MORI who tell me that when they saw the initial figures they did some additional checks. The past vote figures are basically identical to last month’s (ie. MORI haven’t inadvertently over-sampled Labour supporters) and they also had a look at newspaper weights, and they had no effect (readership figures are normal). These tests and a few more satisfied them that the data is accurate.

Coupled with issues regarding tax cuts (the Tories have now abandoned Labour's spending plans, but Nick Robinson points out that they haven't actually said anything about what services...sorry, waste, they would cut), things aren't looking good for Vulpes Vulpes. Simon Carr has already read him the riot act (see my post last night), and Carr is one of the more perceptive sketchwriters out there, who smelt blood just before IDS was deposed. Although the Independent is also saying there is now clear blue water between the parties, I can't help remembering a quote on Drop the Dead Donkey that "there are also lots of brown things floating in it".

It's now getting rather exciting for all those Swords cards, Towers, Devils and Deaths that have been coming up for Vulpes Vulpes. Although I am away for the PBR, I will read for it tomorrow (to try and predict what will happen rather than just interpret the results after the event), to see what impact it will have on the personalities involved.

I will be reading for this poll now, or when I have finished cooking tonight's spag bol...

IPSOS MORI POLL - CONSERVATIVE LEAD of 3%

S. Situation. X PENTACLES.

The Ten signifies the culmination of material and substantial trends and therefore in politics can be translated as the time when things that have been brewing for a long time manifest themselves as direct and significant change. This is the occasion when actions speak louder than words, push comes to shove, and the decisions are made that can bring about fulfilment of currents already felt. In this situation things have come to a head and all that remains is for the direct effects to be seen in reality.

1. External Appearances - Labour. THE EMPRESS

Here we have a comfortable and commanding presence, albeit one that is essentially passive. It is clear that Labour have made significant gains, but only at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Nevertheless, they are beginning to show that their solidity and consistency can still make the political weather, even if they sit by and do nothing. It is a comfortable position, but the Empress, although abundant, fertile and often depicted as pregnant, still does not represent an active position in the world. Labour are not winning votes back from the Conservatives yet; all that is happening is that their position is consolidating the centre-left vote.

2. External Appearances - Conservatives. DEATH

The moment at which things start to move decisively against the Tories and will either make them act to stop the inevitable trend downwards (they have lost 5 points since last month's poll) or to make changes to personnel, policy, or even the leadership. There is transformation - new life from old - inherent in this card but it is not achieved without sacrificing something major before they can move on.

3. Internal Movements - Labour. KNIGHT OF WANDS

A dynamic but still reactive card. This suggests internal movement but one which may mean that Labour are simply reacting to world events or public pressure rather than taking the decision yet to go to the polls. There is a fight going on - perhaps this is over the specifics to be unveiled in the PBR, though Owlperson adds that it is likely that stories of discussions between Brown and Darling are over presentational matters rather than the nuts and bolts of policy which would have been settled on before the PBR date was announced. The card really depicts internal struggle rather than catalytic energy but at least there is creative discussions going on.

4. Internal Movements - Conservatives. IV SWORDS

The Conservatives are at daggers drawn and are trying not to panic here. They have a lot of bullish self-confidence in the possibility of winning an election (leading to George Osborne's noisy "scorched earth" claim). However this betrays a feeling of there being an uneasy truce, whereby the membership are disappointed by Cameron but not able to voice their concerns yet; or perhaps the "Roons", having got the upper hand on the Rons (Remove-Osborne-Nows), have imposed a curfew on dissent to stop the "run on the Tories" going much further.

5. Roots of poll. EMPEROR

There has been an emphasis over the last few weeks on taking control of a frightened and unstable economy. The Emperor signifies a steadying, firm hand on the tiller and an increase in direction. Given that Labour have regained the centre-left vote and the Tories' lead has collapsed from 45% to 40%, it seems that Brown's attempt to portray himself as the Iron Prime Minister, with his Magpie-Man Darling (naturally, Pica Pica is an ace at banking and finance, making magpie-totem Darling a natural choice for Chancellor, satisfying my curiosity as to whether Brown, having taken over from Blair, would not be PM and Chancellor simultaneously) at his side has worked, contrary to expectations.

6. Consequences of poll. JUDGEMENT

Following on from the Ten of Pentacles, Judgement represents a time where justice is meted out to those who are found wanting. It was to be hoped that Brown would end up being the person whom fate caught up with. Justice represents the querent reaping what they sow; the consequences of decisions made. However Judgement is a heavy-handed be-all and end-all for participants in a sequence of actions. Someone is going to get hurt. And I'm not sure it's going to be Brown.

7. Advice - Labour - VI WANDS

Labour would be best taking this poll as just one in a series of reasonable surveys. They should note that the Six suggests temporary and ephemeral victory, not a solid win and not a devastating loss. They should work with the poll's trend, but recognise that some people believe that this Mori poll represents something of an exaggerated trend (politicalbetting has a lot of interesting opinions on it). It is not the springboard for an election, but it is not a cause for worry and at least Labour can be boosted by this feeling of upwards mobility.

8. Advice - Conservatives - ACE OF PENTACLES

The Tories here are cautioned to take this seriously. The Ace of Pentacles represents a material gift or material reward. It is something to work with (they are not falling behind yet) but it is based in reality rather than spin and those who question the methodology like Strapworld on ConHome:

9. Warning - Labour. VI SWORDS

This is a warning against basing electoral prospects in the long run on just one poll. They might be tempted to push the boat out and hold a snap poll, but would be wiser to see what the longer term trend is and to see whether they can actually get into the lead after Christmas. Foolish moves now might unite the Tories before they get to the point of no return again and speed up their policy programme to the extent they can restore their 10%+ lead. 10. Warning - Conservatives. THE HANGED MAN

The Tories are becoming too complacent, and don't seem to want to believe what's going on, as Strapworld - and some other ConHome contributors - suggest. (I post there as a kind of Simone Heffer figure, but there are a lot of people who fluctuate between support and constructive criticism, so watching them is more interesting than either the outrightly critical or the Blue Stalinists.) This detachment is fundamental to continuing problems with the message and the inability to produce spin to match that that they claim Mandelson is dripping. (The imprisonment of Loki before Ragnarok, chained to rocks with Jormungand the snake dripping poison onto him, sums up the relationship the Tories find themselves in with Mandelson.) Any more detachment, longer term strategy (as Andrew Rawnsley claims Osborne is engaging in) or excuses for not releasing policy before the polls go any lower is likely to result in being hanged - in the way Saddam was. (The card does not depict execution; it depicts Odin suspended upside down on Yggdrasil in order to learn wisdom and patience.)

11. Direct outcome - Labour. PAGE OF SWORDS

Labour for the time being keep a flexible if naive outlook on the economic and political front. At their best, Labour are always naively optimistic, convinced of their own righteousness and starry-eyed in the face of Tory opposition. This worked well for Blair, who was the epitome of the quixotic and manipulative leader, wriggling away from certain doom on countless occasions. Brown is more ponderous and slow-moving, but this card suggests he may be learning from his predecessor, if in a superficial way. It might also suggest that by relying on his predecessor's spin doctors he might learn to become more nimble, or this suggests the spin is largely effective but superficial.

12. Direct outcome - Conservatives. KNIGHT OF CUPS

Not a wholly bad card, but representative of elements in the party who are acting to try and change the direction of the party without fully being in control themselves. The Knight of Cups represents an injection of ideas and emotion into the situation, which could destabilise the party as a whole, given that the ideas are not backed by much substance or controlled by those with solidity or gravitas. This could be beneficial for the party because it could convince Cameron to adjust his style or programme to accomodate their suggestions. Knights are erratic and act on impulse, and therefore it may serve to increase the idea of a "run on the Tories" in the short term at least.

13. Overall trend of polls. PAGE OF CUPS

The Page acts as the seed or initiation card of the suit he represents. In this way the polls are tending to represent the emotive aspects of the situation and the need for strength and experience. This card regularly comes up representing the Brown bounce - that it is not so much a bounce but a gentle flow in his direction - or, for the Tories, a leakage of their support away from the magic 40% needed to have a chance of winning the election. The trend is based on peoples' feelings - fearful or optimistic - rather than the grim reality, something the Tories will have to take into account if they want to win hearts and minds in the run-up to the next election.

14. Poll solutions. THE CHARIOT

The momentum is increasing in the trend noted above. Rather than fluctuating, the Brown bounce is now becoming a Cameron leak. The Chariot symbolises momentum increasing so much that things begin to go out of control, torn apart by conflicting influences, which, with the Tories displaying their panic now means that the trend is towards the centrifugal force which has torn apart previous leaderships.

15. Overall outcome - Labour. THE LOVERS

Labour re-establish themselves - for the moment - as the public's choice in these times, possibly only by default, but this is seeing off the challenge from the Tories who have consistently failed to put any money where their mouth is when the issue of fiscal stimulus is raised, and who are losing the battle for the "narrative". Labour keep things solidly in their favour because they have access to the levers of power, but also because the Tories have failed to articulate an alternative agenda that doesn't fall back on tactics which allegedly failed us at the last election.

16. Overall outcome - Conservatives. PAGE OF WANDS

This card suggests a new beginning and an initation of a new phase in the party's history, after the effects of the Death card have made themselves felt. The initiation inherent in the suit of Wands is creative inspiration, which the Tories need to harness into a properly balanced programme and manifesto in order to turn the trend back in their favour. However the need to strike a balance between solely relying on "creative inspiration" in policy-making - which could produce a rag-bag of initiatives or silly ideas for micromanagement - and establishing themselves as a competent alternative government is important. The Page of Wands rather suggests the Tories will rely on the former rather than trying to build the latter.

Even Simon Carr has noticed that David Cameron is a fox in sheep's clothing.

Reading the edited version (courtesy of the Daily Torygraph, now fully repentant after giving voice to Osborne's critics last week), you'd think he aced it. Instead he's gone under.

Poor Vulpes Vulpes. I'm still waiting for the following exchange on TV myself:

Paxman: "So, Kirsty...David Cameron. You're saying he's a werewolf?"

Wark: "Yes, Jeremy - or more accurately, he's a werefox... George Osborne, the former Shadow Chancellor, is now alleging that on a yacht in the Aegean David suddenly began to bark uncontrollably and pull off his shirt and trousers. The next moment, he grew a long bushy red tail and his nose lengthened until it ended in a bright, wet, black nose. The last we saw of him, he was eviscerating a chicken on the stern deck, before he fled when Greek police released the hounds.

"His whereabouts are now unknown but this morning Labour's poll lead climbed to a new record of 20% ahead."

Well, it would make more sense than the current Tory economic policy, at least.

MSN reports that a government minister has admitted to having a sixth sense.

Experts don't fully understand it mainly because it is so vague and subjective that it is more an art than a science. Stranger things have happened - a psychic reading I got done in the summer told me I would receive "a considerable amount of money" from someone. Being broke and unemployed (I am on benefits of £85 a week atm) a £21 rail ticket to Gatwick is "a considerable amount of money" (see earlier). So, great, I need a holiday, haven't had one in two years. I tried raising the money through eBay, but with that the cash comes in in dribs and drabs and to be honest, I spent it largely on luxuries I wouldn't otherwise be able to afford (e.g. Dominoes pizza - it was a black day for NatWest when I discovered they delivered all the way out to Swallowfield, because the last time me and my sister used them back in 2001 they didn't and we had to drive to Earley and drive back as fast as we could to get the pizza home before it got cold). Last night my mother handed me over a £700 cheque for spending money on holiday, after trying to get my grandmother to remember to transfer it and failing, I finally asked mum, not always the best person to mention money to. How's that for - literally - a "considerable amount of money"?

The literal nature of online psychics therefore needs to be understood in that sort of context. I was told in the spring I would write about spiritual topics, which is odd, because my passion is and remains politics, and I'm not a big fan of spiritualist literature. Months later I started this blog, something I was sceptical about as to how it would go down with people I was trying to impress elsewhere, particularly people who I had worked with on the election campaign. I was getting so many counter-intuitive tarot readings for politics, however, that I started to believe that although I was prejudiced about the outcome - I want a Tory government but not under Cameron - the tarot was overriding these prejudices, because I felt about June or July that if not even Davis' resignation could undermine Vulpes Vulpes, then nothing would. 

Things also work because we believe in them - one slogan for a film out last Christmas was "You have to believe it to see it", and therein lies the crux of any kind of faith. I'm not wanting to provoke an atheism v Christianity debate, everyone has the right to their views. As a practising Christian I took ten years between one aborted confirmation (the vicar said I was the ideal communicant, since I was the only person who had really thought about) and the next fulfilled one (and even then I had to wait a year for a suitable date which could accomodate various family members - I also made a lot of friends on the election campaign in Newbury who were invited as well between 2004 and 2005, so perhaps it was always meant to be that way). The main reason I didn't sign up in the first place was the Jesus aspect, rather than the God aspect. I know when I prayed as a kid, I felt something warm and fuzzy inside. So in that kind of way I knew He existed. But I didn't like to, in choosing Christianity, consign my Muslim, Sikh, Jewish and Hindu friends to Hell. I had the great fortune to study under Dr Leslie Griffiths, now Lord Griffiths, who was much more moderate than I had allowed for. And I also have Nicholas Howard (whom I met at a party at the ASI, where his illustrious father was speaking...I was a Labour Student at the time, but as a Fabian was expected to be politically promiscuous to a certain extent: there were Fabian Society members who make Cameron and Osborne look plebeian - one came up with the line "we want a dictatorship of the proletariat run by the bourgeoisie", an attitude which led me to leave the Fabians just after he said it) to thank for helping me realise - when I was on the verge of converting to Judaism to square the God/Jesus circle - that although he was raised as a Jew he saw Christianity not as mutually exclusive but as a fulfillment of the Jewish scripture and therefore in converting himself and others he felt he was right to nail his colours to the mast rather than hide his light under a bushel.

So for me, God and psi work hand in hand. I've had a lot of dreams about politics - one in 1998, written down the morning after it happened, where I dreamt John Redwood's wife left him because she was depressed; then of course I met him in 2004 and that had actually (only recently, 2002-03 or thereabouts) happened; and a number of minor precognitions - which led me to accept that things like this are possible, although they continue to baffle scientists because they are seemingly random and not reproduceable under conditions in a laboratory.

Why not? Stress is one factor - since I have been living on £85/week for the last two years (the only way I can save money is sit at home and not do anything for a whole month - I tried it and although I was £300 richer I was also several stone lighter, so no thank you, I'm still only a size 12 and as I said, Dominoes deliver...personally I'd rather be fat and happy than thin and miserable, because I don't comfort eat) and not being able to find another job, I've found it difficult to replicate my original dreams and rely on contact with Owlperson as a guide instead. I also believe we get what we are given - no more, no less. Lord Drayson may find himself able to predict events before they happen, but I also think he may anticipate the outcome of an event better than others rather than use a crystal ball as and when he chooses to see future events before the seeds of them are sown. A lot of disappointment comes from people who think that being psychic or using tarot is like watching TV of the future. Its psychological nature and reliance on knowing what you are seeing mean that science will probably still continue to be sceptical until someone demonstrates such uncanny behaviour that people are shocked into being convinced. Also, personally, I believe that knowing the exact future would make things grind to a halt (as would the absence of evil, envisaged by many "psychics", which exists to push us towards striving towards the good).

I also think things like Atlantis, UFOs and other dubious manifestations of pop-parapsychology such as neo-eugenics (where the world ends up divided into enlightened, spiritual masters and a "grunter" proletariat, with the inference that the people who buy the prophet's book can end up as one of the enlightened...yuck!) discredit the movement as a whole and make it so airy-fairy that sceptics don't need to weigh in. Sensible, intelligent mediums like John Edward in the US exist, but the junk I've read since I got "into" it all (and the crap people who are psychic tell desperate, frustrated people like myself, e.g. "just go out and meditate, dearie, you'll be OK" - if I could find the answers that way, do you think I'd be paying you £1.50 a minute for advice?! Never again...) seems like they are just playing into sceptics' hands and making it so esoteric and politically loaded that ordinary people are turned off. More reasonable books exist - the best way to explore the tarot is through Julia Sharman-Burke's excellent psychoanalytical pack, The Beginner's Guide To Tarot - but on the whole, the literature out there needs to get out of its niche and into the mass market so people understand what is possible and what is not. As for those who think it is evil - I believe that tarot is like a knife. A knife can be used dangerously - to kill or wound. It can also be used to cut bread for a hungry child.

In short - don't knock it until you've tried it. And always use it responsibly and with good intentions.

Just a little announcement to make.

I will miss the Pre-Budget Report on 24 November.

I don't intend to spend my holiday writing tarot spreads for this blog, I intend to use it to show off my trip to the wider world (including my mother and grandmother, co-sponsors), but I will check the news and write a little bit on how I feel things are progressing. Tarot cards are not bulky but I would feel very sad if for the first time in two years I get a holiday abroad and use it to lollygag on how things are working out at home. I do intend to keep a poltiical diary about the Baltic States but it will mainly focus on (a) how much Sterling's depreciation affects purchasing power; (b) who the governments of each country are and what they are doing; and (c) how many cepelinai I can shove down my throat in an hour. Oh yes, and (d) what the bloody hell National Rail are thinking of by making the train fare to Gatwick from Reading £21.50 (!!!) when the trains are so slow and so crap. Anyway I'm actually going now (it was touch and go for a while on the money situation) so sorry, George, but you'll just have to tell me how the PBR went for you when I get back.

Anyway, on with the show. From now until 24 November I will continue to post most days, I hope you are enjoying it out there by the way, if anyone has any comments to make the facility is there and I don't moderate them...honest!

COMPARISON OF COMRES AND YOUGOV POLLS, 16 NOVEMBER 2008

The Independent on Sunday poll - Comres - is shown here, while the Sunday Times has its poll here.

OVERALL

S. Situation. KNIGHT OF WANDS.

An increase in internal politicking has occurred, with the partisan discussions mainly focussing on tactics rather than strategy (in both parties). This is a situation where party concerns are put above government and oppositional responsibilities and the personalities begin to be more important than policy motivations.

1. Commonalities between the polls. STRENGTH.

Both polls represent a wrestling match between the parties and a deep and uncompromising fight for superiority. Labour are trying to force upwards but the Tories are managing to suppress the Brown bounce - although the lead differs so much, it is still a Tory lead. The fight is getting closer and more evenly matched, but the intense competition is generating the ideas driving politics rather than allowing one party to completely dominate and drive the political scene into turgid banality.

2. Differences between the polls. THE HANGED MAN.

The differences need careful control and to be looked at dispassionately by the main protagonists. They make it difficult to judge the actual situation and thus require an interpretation that goes beyond mere statistics, looking more at actual performance and/or party psychology. Interpretation is made difficult by the discrepancy between 11% and 5% that it is worthwhile suggesting other factors may be more important in predicting who will win the next election.

COMRES - TORY LEAD OF 11%

3. External appearances. KING OF SWORDS.

This poll displays a certain "conventional wisdom" which shows the parties maintaining rather than bucking recent standings, with Brown still aspiring to a decent bounce (as against his summer ratings) but Cameron conceivably maintaining his position without difficult due to a certain anti-government buzz. The King of Swords is a card which represents unfulfilled potential, so it is wise not to jump to too many conclusions regarding positive support for the Opposition.

4. Internal discussions. III PENTACLES.

The parties are solidifiying their positions rather than there being any major surprises due for the moment. This is only the beginning of a tendency towards stasis, and it doesn't mean that Brown cannot turn things around. However with actual movement from one month to the next it seems as if these positions may be fixed for the time being.

5. Roots of the poll result. II CUPS.

There is a balance and equilibrium being established here - the tide is flowing in and out for both parties in equal measure, without any major cataclysm or miracle occurring for either party or leadership. Although Labour has reestablished itself the Tories have not collapsed yet - here at least.

6. Consequences of the poll result. II SWORDS.

Even the IoS article concedes the poll results are prone to large differences. The devil may be in the detail but for the moment there is no decisive element to move these polls significantly in one party's favour. Like in Strength, the two competitors are equally matched, just as in the Loki-Heimdall coupling I wrote about a few weeks ago before the Glenrothes poll.

In the Norse sagas, the story of Ragnarok concisely detailed the end of the world. WIthin it are many different battles, but one is between Heimdall and Loki: "age-old enemies, [they] will meet for a final time, and neither will survive their encounter." While I'm not sure Brown lives up to the shining character of Heimdall, nor does Alex Salmond plumb the depths of the sinister Loki, this card in this position for this event conjures up that line. This is not a clearly obvious result; both sides are evenly matched and although one party must eventually win, this card suggests not only a dead heat, but a destructive or exhausting one like the match between Heimdall and Loki. By-elections are always keenly fought and although the SNP started with a massive advantage, Labour have clawed a lot back in the last month and the SNP acted recklessly enough that the result is now in the balance. There can be only one winner, but both Heimdall and Loki are destroyed by their duel, and it could be that in the event of an SNP win Labour will have clawed back enough ground to make it respectable enough, whilst the SNP will have thrown a lot of promise away and done their reputation enough damage in the long run that Salmond has to rein in some of his radicalism and rethink policies he once thought would win the hearts and minds of the Labour establishment.

For the SNP, read the Conservatives, but otherwise, Heimdall in this situation, who I see as Brown (Cameron more suits the personality of Loki), is bringing the balance back in his favour.

YOUGOV - TORY LEAD OF 5%

7. External appearances. THE FOOL.

A new chapter in the bounce and seemingly some sort of breakthrough moment if we treat this poll as more relevant than the 11% lead one. (Owlperson remarks that the Tories would be wise not to dismiss this as a blip; it reinforces The Times' poll earlier this week and he believes they appear too complacent as yet if they are actually going to win the election.) An optimistic prospect for some who believe more work needs to be done on both sides to propel politics - and the country - forward and stop sloppiness on either side, either out of depression or hubris.

8. Internal discussions. THE MOON.

It might lead to inner understanding to regard this as the more relevant poll and to develop policies as if this was spot on. Intuition tells both parties the truth - the Tories should seek to raise their game and Labour should take heart and unite to win. The situation is still murky but it assists both parties in accepting this verdict as rather truer than the ComRes poll. A good politician, in Owlperson's view, treats the lowest lead as more accurate. Thus they can see what work remains to be done and not sink into a haze of complacency and waste opportunities.

9. Roots of the poll result. II PENTACLES.

Change and adjustment which has worked to realign the political firmament, although the change has yet to alter the parties' respective prospects radically, echoing the Roots/Consequences axis of the ComRes reading. This does suggest the shift towards Labour is continuing, though not rapidly enough to provoke Brown into calling an election.

10. Consequences of the poll result. KNIGHT OF COINS.

This is the poll which has most impact - naturally enough, as it shows the most fluctuation from this time last month - and it brings greater initiative because the narrowing lead makes a greater impact on both parties. The Knight of Coins typically also warns against spending what you don't have, so in this situation each party would be wiser to see how the issues develop before making any more assumptions about public opinion.

CONCLUSIONS FOR THE PARTIES

CONSERVATIVES

11. Direction. THE STAR.

The Tories take out of this hope and optimism, though should guard against naivete or too much expression of this insubstantial good fortune. They have enough still to play for not to get discouraged or suicidal, but need to transform this flimsy happiness into more substantial and established gains.

12. Solution. VII PENTACLES.

The Tories are growing and establishing real ideas, but this is a solution suggests a bit more frustration with the pace of their campaign and policymaking than is necessarily comfortable for their membership. If progress halts at this point the poll leads will not actually materalise at the election.

13. Outcome. KING OF PENTACLES.

Government does await but this figure needs to emerge fairly quickly to capitalise on the poll leads still extant. Although they still have a lot to hope for, they need to allow this tendency to develop within themselves. This suggests something or someone acts to bring this about, but a latent frustration may actually help to bring it about.

LABOUR

14. Direction. IX CUPS.

Labour continue to make good on short-term gains and to develop a sense of personal or political abundance. They are more able to make sure this is not just idle hope but substantive, material or psychological success.

15. Solution. JUSTICE.

The winner here definitely takes all. The decisive momentum for the moment is with Labour, almost independent of the poll results. The significant event also begins to allow Brown to float of his own accord rather than the bounce having to be tracked from poll to poll; and thus people can begin to se the wood for the trees.

16. Outcome. QUEEN OF SWORDS.

Nevertheless, keeping an eye on what is going on allows Labour to maintain the bounce using its own due care and attention. This card does however suggest - and warn against - too sharp a focus, too hyper a consciousness, of issues, polls and personalities, leading to micromanagement that may give off - rightly or wrongly - a sense of fear. This may balance out the real momentum coming from Justice, and lead to unnecessary panic as a result.

Two polls out this weekend - one with an 11 point lead [the article is not published as of 23.06, so I will update this link tomorrow morning], one with a 5% lead.

Will be reading for this tomorrow - which is right, and which is righter?

A quickie reading suggests the ComRes one is the SIX OF PENTACLES (balanced, strong, but rather generous) and the Sunday Times one is the TEN OF SWORDS (absolutely deadly).

Reading for which will have the most impact, ComRes is KING OF CUPS (it will give some people hope); the Sunday Times poll is the SIX OF CUPS (which tends to suggest that the depth of analysis is rooted more deeply in domestic realities).

Reading for impact on the Tory leadership, ComRes is actually THE TOWER (unexpected, and downward motion) and the Sunday Times poll puts them at SEVEN OF WANDS, which is struggle and strife that they are barely able to hold off for the moment.

For impact on Labour: ComRes is the TWO OF SWORDS (balance but equivocation and indecision); and for the ST the card is the THREE OF CUPS (relaxation and confidence).

I'm not going to comment; the contributors to Conservative Home are doing that well enough for me. All I'm going to add is that the average result (8%) is still back in single figure territory, and I am going to make that the lead for which I read tomorrow as these two polls cannot really be told apart in methodology, reliability and location of publication.

There is a debate still going on as to whether Cameron should replace George Osborne. Osborne's Times interview has had a mixed reception. ConservativeHome obviously loves it (more on them later). The Guardian's Toby Helm reckons it will cause "a run on the Tories". Personally I reckon the difficult part of the interview is where Osborne talks about Labour pursuing a "scorched earth policy" because they believe they have already lost the next election. That is a daft thing to say, for a number of reasons.

“The issue in British politics is not tax, it is borrowing,” he says. “Gordon Brown doesn’t care about the amount of debt. His view is that he probably won’t win the next election, and the Tories can clear the mess up after he’s gone. That is deeply irresponsible. It’s a scorched earth policy which I think the history books will write up as a total disaster and which, more importantly, the public will see through between now and the election.”

Firstly, he assumes the Conservatives are at a solid enough lead in the polls to actually resist the Brown bounce trend over the last month. A ComRes poll is due out tomorrow in the Sunday Independent, but the trend has been for the Prime Minister to consistently score well when people are asked which is the best party to run the economy. Secondly, Neil Kinnock acted like he had already won the election a week beforehand, which only served to put people off. The Tories can ill afford hubris now, let alone in 18 months' time, if recent form is to be taken into account. Thirdly, it suggests the Conservative leadership believes it does not have to do much more or produce a coherent campaign in order to win properly. This is dangerous complacency which has pricked a number of Tory bubbles over the last twelve years, from William Hague at the fuel protests to Michael Howard's Harrogate spring conference. If the Tories are going to transform their shrinking lead into actual votes, they are going to have to commit to something solid on the economy and pull off a series of radical coups to turn things round. With the G20 summit endorsing borrowing to finance tax cuts and setting up London as their next venue, alongside the limp and highly slated launch of supposed "funded tax cuts" on Tuesday, it looks as if the Tories have been left bleating into nowhere. It also looks like Cameron and Osborne are, like the proverbial Hare, napping while Tortoise Brown ambles towards the finish line of a fourth term.

Osborne might harp on about social responsibility (mentioning the Baby P and Shannon Matthews cases as if they are directly Gordon Brown's fault) but this paragraph too belies a cynicism and a ridiculous posturing where every example of the shamelessness of private human beings is turned into a political football. What has the Shannon Matthews case to do with political posturing? Does La Matthews vote Labour? Has she come out for Gordon Brown? It smacks of desperation when the sole issue that David Cameron can get excited about is something that should be completely beyond the arena of party politics. Are these cases going to be cut under a Tory government? Is David Cameron going to personally find these people who tie up little girls and stash them under beds in order to make a bit of money off the finders' reward? Perhaps he should - then we could get some proper leadership instead of this cynical twosome who have been brought up on Blairism and don't realise that party ended 18 months ago.

I have read here for the prospects for various Shadow Chancellors people are touting around. I start off with George Osborne - he is becoming increasingly hypothetical an example as the Party lurches from ridiculous policies to cynical, smarmy spin.

A. GEORGE OSBORNE

1. Expectations. VI SWORDS.

It is expected that Osborne will begin to move away from current issues now he is to spend more time with the economy. He is being given another chance to stop the rot and challenge the government over their figures in the Pre-Budget Report (henceforth the PBR) on 24 November. Cameron has (unsurprisingly) allowed him to continue in his main job, which means he still has confidence in the Shadow Chancellor's ability to deliver the goods, to push the boat out, and to show that the Conservatives are thinking hard on the subject of the economy.

2. Reality. THE HERMIT.

Osborne remains isolated and deep in thought (despite the reaction from the Conservatives supporting his comments this afternoon). This solitude presumably gives him a chance to think up some better strategies in order to build economic policy properly in the run-up to the local and European elections next spring and summer. There is still a certain loneliness to his position as Shadow Chancellor despite Tory endorsements; the media in general is more lukewarm about his prospects, even after his interview. The implications in The Hermit suggests Osborne needs to raise his game, to find something inside himself to generate some more excitement in the party and the country at large.

3. Possibilities. VII WANDS.

Again the strife and tension in this card works to keep Osborne on the political tightrope. This cards suggests the threat of redeployment may improve his game plan for the moment to try and win back some of the confidence the Tories originally had in him; but it may also suggest that he is still not wholly in command of his brief and either needs a direct coup - provoking a run on sterling is not it - or to move over and let someone else manage the party's responses.

4. Outcome. III SWORDS.

The battle ends in defeat and a definite breakdown for Osborne, whether in the short-term or long-term future. Although he has been moved from strategy detail to concentrate on his main job, it is still likely he could be found wanting where it really hurts - such as at the PBR, for example. Not a good omen at all.

5. Will Cameron sack him? QUEEN OF CUPS.

No. Osborne provides part of the framework for the Conservative Party at the moment in other matters than on the economy, and he brings enough to the "Cameroon" tendency that he is indispensable to Cameron's project, just as Brown was to Blair. Whether or not this is a good thing remains to be seen, with the Three of Swords in mind, but it is an inescapable fact that to move him, demote him or sack him would be to acknowledge that not only he, but also the Cameron tendency, has failed.

B. JOHN REDWOOD.

1. Expectations. III CUPS.

Redwood could be a real boost to the party as someone who promises ideological consistency (over Europe, an argument mostly now won by the Euro-agnostic tendency, to which I belong, because of the government's own unwillingness to make radical moves towards the EU as a federalist state or membership of the single currency) and a sound grasp of the brief. If enticed back into the Shadow Cabinet (unlikely but possible if Cameron were prepared to ask him, which is the biggest IF this side of Rudyard Kipling), he could prove just what the party needs.

2. Reality. KNIGHT OF CUPS.

Redwood would have to be sensitive to the current Conservative reality. He was prepared to weigh in behind Michael Howard so long as his position allowed him to speak from the backbenches in Parliament on behalf of his Wokingham constituents - myself included. However to bring all his opinions to the table would be to clash with Cameron's idea of how the party should be run. He would lose some of this stature in being forced to toe the line of the "progressive" agenda; he would not be able to think the unthinkable as much as people who want him to return might wish.

3. Possibilities. THE HIEROPHANT.

Redwood gives good counsel and his support of Osborne is total. He would undoubtedly be an asset to the Shadow Cabinet but is still able to inform the party from his current situation - just not participate in its leadership and direction. He would be very non-political a choice, as he is more of an economist at heart than a politician. He may not be politically palatable enough if Cameron needs to maintain a consistent message.

4. Outcome. ACE OF PENTACLES.

A real possibility and may step up if he can be lured back. (Indeed he was seen at a drinks party with Michael Ashcroft the other night - alongside David Davis. A dream ticket? Hmmmmmmmmmm...) He would only give himself if he could be convinced of the necessity of his presence, as he is currently enjoying backbench pontificating (see The Hierophant, also known in some decks as The Pope). However this may be arranged if there is a vacancy fairly soon in order to inject substance into the role.

5. Would Cameron appoint him? THE DEVIL

Would he b*llocks. Redwood represents what Cameron has been trying to expunge from Tory history. (If I see another article that mentions IDS and Cameron but not Howard I will scream so loud I will be heard simultaneously in Witney, Folkestone and Chingford. Clearly the Quiet Man is rehabilitatable but not the person who got half-way. What a warped party we live in.) Cameron would have to be desperate to appoint him, though if things continue along these lines, he will be.

C. KEN CLARKE.

1. Expectations. VI WANDS.

Clarke would be the choice to end all choices - he would represent a coup for the Tories, he would generate publicity for them and he would knock Labour into a cocked hat. Although the Six of Wands represents a temporary victory rather than a lasting one, it is assumed by many that Clarke, having gone head to head with Brown while Brown was still Shadow Chancellor, would be just the man to take on Labour at the dying end of their term and would singlehandedly win the election.

2. Reality. X PENTACLES.

Clarke does have solidity, which is what this card represents. It would be a good way to regain our standing in the polls, because Clarke would bring the substance he brought as our last Tory chancellor back to the office and be the person who could make the running rather than just vainly tilt at windmills like Osborne is doing. The potential for success is clear - if Cameron did the decent thing and called him back to the front line.

3. Possibilities. V PENTACLES.

But unfortunately it probably won't happen, either from Cameron or Clarke's side. The prospects of inviting someone who has refused to serve in all four Shadow Cabinets since 1997 back and him accepting are miniscule, so although the reality of Clarke as Shadow Chancellor and back at No. 11 would be a great one for the Tories, it is just not possible from his side. Furthermore, he would expose the shallowness of Cameron and probably be leader within six months. It is rumoured that IDS was doomed the day he appointed Howard as Shadow Chancellor, and Cameron knows this, which is why he doesn't appoint the heavyweights to his Shadow Cabinet. QED.

4. Outcome. THE WORLD.

The situation here is that striking difficulties make it impossible in reality for Clarke to be given the Treasury brief because of the personalities involved. Any "big hitter" would expose flaws in Cameron's own leadership or eclipse him, meaning a downfall in the one position not currently up for grabs. The World suggests that although Clarke would be the best choice, he would also be the worst for the whole Cameron project.

5. Would Cameron appoint him? STRENGTH

Cameron has the power here to resist the temptation posed by the brilliance Ken could bring because Ken would not accept the invitation. He might be tempted, given that this card always suggests control of impulse rather than simple patience and "knowing", but ultimately the personality clash would be too great for him to control Clarke's own desire to be Prime Minister without the hard bit of subordinacy to someone thirty years his junior in between.

D. WILLIAM HAGUE

1. Expectations. QUEEN OF PENTACLES.

Hague is definitely a possibility, inasmuch as he knows how to manage the party and has experience of government (as much as Redwood does, and the same position, but with added political personality to boot). The Queen is an "administrative" card, so Hague would be more astute and more understanding of realities than some others.

2. Reality. II WANDS.

The word "quixotic" springs to mind. Again, a good card, but with difficulties of strength and the sacrifice of long-term stability to flashes of inspiration and insight. This could be quite a powerful combination, and Hague has the sparkle politically that Redwood lacks. The Two of Wands is more equivocal a card than the powerfully creative Ace, but on the other hand could prove satisfying and, in the short term at least, be what the Tories are currently looking for.

3. Possibilities. VII SWORDS.

Cameron would have to watch his back. Hague is kept at arm's length as Shadow Foreign Secretary, having had previous leadership experience. He would as Shadow Chancellor provide a focal point for those discontented with Cameron and provide a potential challenger in the event of a crisis. Like with Clarke (where the decision is effectively made based on Clarke's own willingness to come back in as anything other than Leader of the Opposition) there is the question of how a Leader who has built his house based on his own personality and appeal may find it difficult to trust someone who still wants the job. Hague is invisible as SFS, and that is why Cameron wants to keep him that way.

4. Outcome. PAGE OF CUPS reversed

No good news here. The Page comes out reversed, and the most plausible person to replace Osborne should he fall is denied the opportunity even to audition for the job, let alone given it. Although Hague is instrumental to the Cameron project, he would not be given the brief because he threatens the leadership if he is given a chance to speak directly to the public as someone in control of economic policies. He is safer jetting between Europe, America, and his wife's banking conferences, than he is being able to challenge Brown - and Cameron - with such a high profile role.

5. Would Cameron move him? VIII PENTACLES.

He would be the safest and most constructive choice if Osborne was to be deposed. He has spent enough time working with Cameron to be a good architect of the leadership's plans, and an honest and hard-working man in general. He is also intimately connected with the current Conservative design, so he would not rock any boats or steal any thunder; it is only Cameron's need for Osborne and fear of Hague's own ambitions that holds him off from redeploying him.

E. DAVID DAVIS

1. Expectations. VIII SWORDS.

Although he would be Lord Kalms' choice, the options here are extremely limited. Davis cannot come back into any frontbench role this side of a failed election. There is little point even touting him because of his earlier stunts which now would rule him out of any role, unless Cameron fell before the election.

2. Reality. IX CUPS.

Davis would be a good but not brilliant Shadow Chancellor. He has a deep fund of political talent but is a little over-eager at times for real capability in office. He could provide a good basis for an economic policy but this would be largely based on his ability to control his propensity to relax too much and let off steam too much. Although most politicians in the upper part Conservative Party tend towards the over-familiar and over-candid remarks with interviewers, Davis is a past master. He would last until the next time Brown or Darling did something he didn't like, and then would walk out on his own party.

3. Possibilities. IV PENTACLES.

The defensive nature of this card suggests that the Conservative Shadow Cabinet has drawn up the drawbridge on Davis and would resist his return to the frontbench, fearing more tantrums later on. There is pure defense in this card - Kalms holds the purse-strings, and can do damge (it sounds like he is angling for Davis as leader rather than Shadow Chancellor, which would be much more probable a take on the senior donor's views) but has little hope of having this particular desire realised before push comes to shove on Cameron himself.

4. Outcome. VIII WANDS.

Lord Kalms' comments add fuel to a fire which could start to burn out of control fairly soon within the parliamentary party, and it is likely that he could increase the pressure on Cameron in general if his seemingly impossible request is not honoured. In this context, the Eight symbolises the momentum building to spin the party out of control, not a rush of excitement and expectation that Davis could come back.

5. Would Cameron appoint him? ACE OF CUPS.

If he still wants Kalms' money, he might have to. But it is questionable that so soon after Davis walked out once, Cameron would welcome him back of his own free will. However if more donors follow suit, he might have no other option.

...as Kryten once said somewhere deep inside the bowels of my Red Dwarf DVD collection.

I have a lot of respect for Peter Tatchell, as left-wingers go he is about the only one to live life according to his principles on a very restricted income in a council house, but he has an interesting new hobby horse - independence for Cornwall. Matthew Taylor, MP for Truro and St Austell, responds here with the usual bland political reply, but (unless any Mebyon Kernow activists are reading this blog, in which case it is an incredibly stimulating and highly resonant debate, one of the most pressing of our time) it must be the most fascinating debate on the least relevant subject I've ever seen, even on the Guardian website.

Unfortunately I never seem to be able to register a Guardian account so successfully that I can log in and post when I navigate away from the relevant pages, but again it raises the question - how many people does it really take to make an independent state? In the days of a recognised independent Kosovo and Montenegro, could Cornwall survive as an independent country?

My standard response to this is as follows - a handful of ardent nationalists take the region, principality or even kingdom out of the Union. Suddenly they lose the NHS, a secure welfare system, access to economic policy in the centrifugal centre of the global region, and assume the importance, relevance and social stability of, erm, Kosovo. For the sake of feeling important the economic benefits of living in the UK are diminished. Although I would not necessarily not be in favour of Cornwall County Council being upgraded say, to an elected regional assembly (if such things ever come to pass, and for other reasons I hope not), even Plaid Cymru admit that full Welsh independence is quite some way off. Not to mention a sudden downturn in the popularity of independence under conditions of deep economic winter and Alex Salmond humiliated by needing a £1bn handout from precisely the people he purports to spurn in the long run.

Peter can dream that every single tiny nationality with its dead language and assimilated population has its own nation-state, but the reality is that even the EU no longer gives money for nothing for tiny nations. In principle, yes. In practice - no.

Lovely article in this morning's Times about the barn owl. Owlperson is an uppik, a snowy owl (that to our right is Cousin Ted, a tawny) but the magnificent, mysterious barn owl is beloved of all, nowadays anyway. We live right in the middle of the Berkshire/Hampshire countryside between Reading and Basingstoke and the trees around us are full of barn owls and tawnies, but I have only seen one once when it flew across the road while I was on my way back from a midsummer dusk walk in July 2006.

It must have been busy for several months after that, as the next spring we had about eighty new chicks born in the small area surrounding the local playing fields in Swallowfield and along the "old A33" (now the B3343) between Junction 11 of the M4 and the Hampshire border between Riseley and Hook.

Owlperson, meanwhile, said that once when he was bored he manifested on this side and found a breeding colony of uppik in the Hebrides. He can be very randy for a spirit guide, but he explained that the poor females in that colony hadn't seen a male in ages and were gagging for it. It is a bit difficult getting a cigarette into a snowy owl's beak, but he says the expression on his face afterwards could have given the ORLY owl a run for his money. He also mentions that that poor bird has been fisted, by the way, to get its beak to open that wide...but perhaps that's enough for now.

As I provided as an addendum to the last post, David Davis has done Desert Island Discs, conspicuously close to the one he did in this week's New Statesman, now published in edited form. It may be coincidental, given that both interviews were solicited - but what does that mean? Perhaps that some bored journalists are depressed at the lack of anarchy within the Conservative Party and decided that now was the time to inject some. However, given that Davis has, in this new interview at least, made some more fantastically candid comments, I don't think he comes out of this looking very good. I'll explain more during the reading, but my problems with Davis started when he claimed that Michael Howard wasn't sexy enough to be Prime Minister (just after the last election). Well, pardon me, but if I'm not turned on by "Something of the Night" Howard, I'm not sure I'm likely to be turned on by someone with a personality like a wet weekend in Hull and an ego the size of Haltemprice and Howden. Nor am I likely to be reassured by a leader who resigns at the drop of a hat when the government wins a debate that was opposed by your own party. Resign from the Shadow Cabinet because you don't get on with Vulpes Vulpes, if you like (I've got nothing against that myself), but if we are going to have a party leadership, it might as well be one which doesn't do or say daft things like that.

Given that twice in one week suggests to me he thinks the time is right to hold his own leadership election, then perhaps the tarot should be called in to decide on this one.

Situation. THE MAGICIAN.

Davis is wielding the powers he has to provoke and make more outspoken waves within the political community. He has a range of tools available in this card and picture to put out his message and opinions, and he is using them for his own ends quite deliberately, if rather spontaneously and in a manner in which it looks as if his approach is rather haphazard.

Why now? II CUPS.

Quite simply, Davis has found an audience. It takes two here to make an interview, and the media is using him just as much as he is using the media. They want his opinion, he wants their publicity because it is of mutual benefit. The motive here behind both the media invitations and Davis' acceptances is to make waves in the best way while the Tories are still vulnerable over their poll lead haemmorhage for the first time since Cameron dodged a bullet in the summer of 2007.

1. External appearances. VIII WANDS.

Davis wants to generate some personal momentum in order to make his voice heard on other issues. He is using outlets at his disposal to drive himself forward and to add to momentum for his own campaigns. This may not be entirely consistent with the aims of the Conservative leadership, but then the media motivation in asking him is such that he may not even be aware he is being used. Or, of course, he might well be.

2. Internal discussions. KNIGHT OF CUPS.

This card appeared for Davis in spreads throughout the spring and summer, thereby suggesting he was acting under the influence of his conscience, or ambitions, or both. Here again he is under similar orders from some subconscious need or idea that he has something to bring to the discussions within the Conservative Party as a whole, and that this can be best achieved by playing up tensions with Cameron rather than trying to damp down speculation about that particular reason for resigning in the summer. He is using opportunities extended to him; whether this is right from a party viewpoint or offered to him with no ulterior motives does not concern him very much at all.

3. Obstacles. ACE OF CUPS.

Perhaps he does not understand or comprehend that the timing of these opportunities coincide with the first serious difficulties the Tories have got into for a year or so. This seems to be him acting in a manner which facilitates difficulties rather than which offers help to Cameron or Osborne as recriminations begin to be voiced elsewhere in the "narrative". If it is to publicise current campaigns, these do not appear significant enough in either the NS interview or in the Desert Island Discs preview to reassure me, and probably the Tory leadership alongside me, that this is any reason to accept the interviews proffered. He is drinking from a poisoned chalice; one reading of this is that the scheming Labour-orientated media is directing Davis to make subtle jibes at Cameron and also to puff up his own ambitions. As he admits to sloppiness in the DID preview, this may also backfire - his lax attitude towards making these comments suggests he would not make a good enough leader anyway, and is voicing something that would damage his prospects later on if Cameron were to fall.

He also confessed that he did not do enough preparation for his poorly-received speech to the 2005 Tory Party conference, widely seen as the moment at which he blew his chance of becoming party leader.

"I simply made the mistake of not spending enough time on that speech. There's nobody else to blame but me - I made the mistake and I took the hit and I knew that within 24 hours," he said.

It just sounds like Davis' mouth has run away with him, yet again.

4. Overcoming. QUEEN OF SWORDS.

By being more careful Davis can avoid the pitfalls in this approach, but he will have to be less candid or self-deprecating and be aware where he is being made to look like he is challenging Cameron - or made to look foolish. Care here comes in the form of staying alert, remaining watchful that he does not relax into suggesting he would be sloppy in speechwriting later on, and to know when he might be used against the leadership by Labour supporting media outlets. He is more candid on DID than in the New Statesman, but he should use the Queen of Swords' mental carefulness to tread warily and stop himself sabotaging any future ambitions.

5. Direction. TEMPERANCE.

He keeps aware and relaxed. This card indicated he seems to know what he is doing. He is balanced and temperate, and not overly dismissive of the leadership, but he must be doing this now to maintain and/or build a profile in order to take advantage of difficulties in the leadership at a future moment in time. This is a card of patience - without the suppression element inherent in Strength - and the patience here is that of a cat stalking a mouse.

6. Solution. V CUPS.

Davis has snatched defeat here from the jaws of potential victory. As the interview betrays, he pays less-than-adequate attention to what he is saying, and has less-than-adequate concentration under the pressure of a closely fought leadership campaign. This is failure to grasp the point of why he failed in the first place - he was always too candid about his intentions. My favourite quote was on the day London won the Olympics. In the paper - unfortunately published on 7/7 - he sat there, confident he would win out in the end, and said "I won't be opening the Olympics - that'll be the Queen". This basic personality flaw trumps learned experience, evidently. By acting as a stalking-horse Heseltine figure (interestingly, his totem is Grey Horse) now, he does himself more damage in the long run should a leadership issue actually arise.

7. Outcome. THE HERMIT.

Davis risks isolation and solitude here by on one hand appearing to do the rounds now before there is even a discussion about the leadership, let alone a vacancy. He has also been spotted - with John Redwood - having drinks with Lord Ashcroft - the conspiracy theorist in me remembers Michael Howard was having drinks with Stewart Wheeler and John Madejski a week or so before IDS was deposed, while simultaneously pledging loyalty to the beleaguered Duncan-Smith. However, on the other hand, he betrays extreme personal weakness and excessive openness about his ambitions and tensions with Cameron while in the Shadow Cabinet. It reminds me of the scene in Men Behaving Badly, where Tony has bugged Deborah's flat and is listening to her new boyfriend Ray slag Tony off. Rather than wait for him to finish - and for Deborah to tell Ray to stop belittling Tony and that she no longer wants to go out with him - Tony barges upstairs, destroys Deborah's door and physically threatens Ray - thus pushing Deborah back into his arms. Davis risks the same thing happening here - metaphorically of course - by ineptitude in trying to outfox Cameron.

Sorry Dave, but the time to promote your ambitions is after the job is open, not before.

A few small announcements, small-but-sweet stories and clippings...

First of all, this story interests me on the BBC's website. Although I'm no fan of the government, given a choice between Labour and Conservative MPs as people in themselves, I'd have to say I respect Labour ones rather than Tories. Having worked for two Labour MPs before I went to university, Margaret Moran and Patrick Hall, they came across as nice people - down to earth, hard-working, a bit more like my own parents than their Tory counterparts. While the people I worked for in 2005 are nice, and when I met Michael Howard, John Redwood and Theresa May on the same campaign they came across as very likeable people, the photographs of PPCs and MPs alike on Conservative Home don't tend to exude the same personability (yes, John Redwood IS personable, he apparently mellowed when he met his new partner Nicky Page, wore paint-spattered cords to a canvassing day for the Swallowfield By-Election in early 2005, and kissed and cuddled Nicky persistently while out on other electioneering runs the same year), looking more like clones of David Davis serviced by the same wigmaker who makes Michael Fabricant's hair. Laura Moffatt's self-professed desire to return to the NHS if she loses her seat at the next election is a lovely idea; although I would as a Tory hope she has every opportunity to pursue her dream, to me we need more people like that prepared to stand for the Conservative Party now we are supposedly no longer the "nasty party".

And foxes might fly. Who knows, if Redwood (himself another vulpes vulpes totem) is personable, then some of the Tories I regularly see on Conservative Home might be too. But if we are to match the success of Labour over the past twelve years, I reckon more people like Laura Moffatt need to be persuaded to stand in relatively winnable seats to improve the feel of the party. So far, according to Janet Daley, the modernisation project has failed. What better way to kickstart it? Maybe even Ms Moffatt (insert joke about spiders and tuffetts here) could be prevailed upon to cross the floor? She may even end up as leader the way things are going.

On to other news, courtesy of the Reading Evening Post (given a nice endorsement by Michael Howard himself, no less). Back in October I phoned our local paper regarding my research into electoral statistics and possible ways of finding whether the kind of fraud registered here by the Council of Europe could be seen through the raw statistics. It turns out that the number of seats with no results ending in 5 or 0 has declined rapidly since 1987. Coincidentally, that was when Labour started getting popular. Given the potential for the postal votes to be mishandled (such as the accusation there that not all of them tend to end up in the final count), one would expect it to account partly for the discrepancies in 2005, by far the worst year with just 23% of seats not having round number results. However, the evident manipulation goes right back before postal votes began accounting for more of the total votes, which means there is also dodgy accounting going on with hand-cast ballots. How they do this is beyond me, but at least this shows there is a problem we need to address before another general election can be fought.

The article was finally published on Wednesday (the photographs were taken the week George Osborne got into trouble over Yachtgate) and I will scan and upload a copy as soon as I get one (I have to send them a cheque for 98p to get hold of a back issue, and I go away on the 24th until the 8th December, so it may not be until I get back) - the story was not put up on the website.

The research table is in Excel form but I need help in uploading or publicising it. If anyone out there can help me, please get in touch via louise.stanley@live.co.uk.

That's all for now - I will upload the next reading later on or tomorrow.

STOP PRESS - Look who's talking too...David Davis putting his foot in it again. Come in number 4, your time is up?

Pun definitely intended.

George Osborne comes under renewed scrutiny - with a lot more people now calling for his resignation, mostly from the blogs on the Torygraph but also in the print edition and with Conservative Home opening the debate on it in Torydiary (complete with eye-bleeding picture of Vulpes Vulpes and Corvus Corone - Georgie and I share a totem up close and rather too personal; Vulpes Vulpes needs to lose a bit of weight as well as a Shadow Chancellor, but never mind that...).

Last time we looked, George was safe and grounded, if somewhat damaged by the Yachtgate issue. He was under attack prior to this, and his popularity ratings plummetted thereafter, but since then he has been rather conspicuous by his silence/absence/sidelining (delete as appropriate), which may have handicapped the Tories' economic policy (although if anything they were handicapped before Yachtgate anyway and it was just icing on the cake).

So what will happen now?  I don't call the shots; personally I would tell him to concentrate on his Treasury role and not touch party management, but there again I'm not sure I would have brought him so soon up to the Shadow Chancellorship and given him a few more years of being Shadow Chief Secretary and then hopefully Chief Secretary while someone with more gravitas was given the economic role. However given the only other options for Shadow Chancellor don't have that weight either - Oliver Letwin was almost as bad a Shadow Chancellor and it always looked as if Howard had just given him the job to shut him up in 2003 and really wanted to bring Redwood in full-time - I'm not sure what I'd do right now.

Neither Ken Clarke or John Redwood, I believe, would want to come back - but looking at them as possibilities may be a topic for later on if something doesn't come up before then.

On with the show.

S. Situation. TEMPERANCE.

Osborne is being kept in limbo while his fate is ultimately decided. The difficulties with him are no longer a case of direct scandal but consideration of Osborne's future is taking place away from the heat of the Yachtgate issue. Nevertheless there is still balance within the system, as if this is a debate independent of the leadership and has been generated by the need for discussion about something and the absence of anything else to talk about.

1. External appearances. IX SWORDS.

The external quality of the debate is torrid and two Telegraph blogs and a print article have questioned Osborne already. (This is given credence because of the location of the debate in the "house journal" of the Conservative party, signifying the debate is important to the party machine rather than just idle speculation from parties hostile to Osborne.) This means that there is fire with the smoke clearly visible - refusals to move Osborne may placate the anxious party which needs political consistency, but since there is any question at all, is it not less dangerous to deal with this by showing the leadership is listening? Indecision is visible here, as well as in party circles such as the Tory Home blog entry above; this is generally damaging in the long term if left to continue.

2. Internal discussions. V SWORDS.

There is a concrete debate and outcome already visible in the inner party sanctums (sancta?) and hierarchy which may come out over the next while. Action should be taken soon on this, announcements regarding Osborne made, foreshadowed by the smoke coming off the internal fire given off by the bloggers and columnists in the Torygraph. This may be linked to problems in the polls elsewhere which have knocked the party harder than it appears.

3. Roots of the Situation. THE EMPRESS.

The card here suggests that a dispassionate time preceded this debate and a period of calm meant that the charged atmosphere of Yachtgate was allowed to clear before a decision was taken over Osborne's long-term future. The Party approaches this calmly and dispassionately and makes it plain that this new debate holds no malice or is not a knee-jerk reaction to Yachtgate itself.

4. Consequences of the Situation. STRENGTH.

Destructive impulses are curbed and Osborne may survive the current scrutiny. As usual, implied in Strength is the suppression of difficulties rather than their neutralisation. With the internal/external axis looking so dangerous this could delay and intensify the dynamic rather than dispel it if the party refuses to stop discussing the matter.

5. Advice. X WANDS.

The heaviness of this burdensome question is not going to go away - it is dangerous to ignore the issue and the nature of pent-up frustration may intensify pressure on both Cameron and Osborne, who are intimately connected and part of the same "team" since its conception. This may lead to added pressure to keep Osborne but Cameron should recognise the need to be professional and balance the needs of the Tory agenda with the retention of friendships made earlier on.

6. Warning. THE CHARIOT.

The situation can and probably will end up out of control. Once speculation begins - as it did even before Yachtgate - it tends to take on a life of its own. The difficulties in internal and external debates may end up out of hand and if it does it may take more than Osborne with it - given previous Tory experience. It could be fatal if something is not done to stop the momentum building.

7. Action from Cameron. KNIGHT OF PENTACLES.

Cameron relies mainly on doing things at the last moment possbile, and may not be fully cognisant of the debate getting louder. However, the reliance on others implied by the Knight is not the best position for a leader to be in and DC may be indecisive or too bound by other loyalties to act properly. Cameron needs to maintain his position and exert his authority, but he is constrained here by external events rather than being master of them.

8. Action from Osborne. THE HANGED MAN.

Osborne continues to be sidelined but is not sacked and does not resign - for now. Staying in this position is staying in the status quo for better or worse, and whether this is an endorsement from Cameron or mere indecision on his part is not obvious here but may become so later on.

9. Direction. III PENTACLES.

The debate becomes substantial and more coherent, and builds to a point where it becomes something more significant than just idle party chatter. The learning process implied here gives lessons in how to handle this kind of situation in preparation for government, and/or a lesson for those watching in how to run their own people management or "personnel departments".

10. Solution. DEATH.

The situation needs to be - and probably is - resolved with productive and decisive results. This may suggest the fundamental damage done is a result of inactivity above after the movement becomes obvious in the the Three of Pentacles. Death represents a finality as well as a transformation. Destructive chatter such as the blogs, articles and commentary elsewhere needs to be resolved before it goes ballistic, and if people involved do not stop it or make necessary adjustments, then it may stop itself with more difficult results than desired.

11. Outcome. PAGE OF CUPS.

There is a humility and innocence in this card, as if someoe outside the fray, more junior than the leadership, ensures that the necessary tonic is delivered to Dave and George. Although the decisiveness of Death is unequivocally acting on the situation to arbitrate, it will be coming from elsewhere to solve the problem, rather than from within the current hierarchy. A solution acceptable to all is delivered.

00.29 - This just in from the Independent. Let's get ready to ruuuuummmmmble!

Probably the "best" PMQs exchange since Michael Howard made his famous "grammar school boy" remark took place yesterday with Cameron and Brown finally breaking their deadpan mode to display gratuitous anger and real passion about the case of Baby P. Watch it here (warning - parental guidance is advised because of unsuitable parliamentary behaviour!)...

It is moving to see grown men reduced to a slanging match in some ways, but Dave only got upset after Brown accused him of party politics. I'm not sure who won myself - Brown didn't display much charisma or empathy but Cameron really should have been going on more important issues such as the economy and people are suggesting he is "frit" - scared perhaps that he continually comes up blank on the important bits while allowing Brown to get away with economic murder. If Howard v Blair was often pure comedy (particularly hearing the word "blinging" coming out of Howard's mouth) this is just farce. The papers are split, with Quentin Letts' Tory rabble-rousing in one corner and Simon Carr's perspective almost diametrically opposed (others such as Simon Hoggart believe both leaders were crass and insensitive to the real issue, the fact that both a child and an economy have recently died), but what do the cards say?

Similar to the Davis spread, I have divided the cards into three rows of four cards each, with the same headings for each one. I have decided to try and go "solo" without the book, because typing out the definition for the same cards each time gets rather tedious. Tarot is best when the reader can get an objective perspective on the issue at hand; it is not easy to read the cards for yourself because your emotions cloud the subject. But in this case, with the meanings objectified, I have tried to go beyond the book to interpret the cards in a more freeform way, given that some meanings, particularly for the King/Queen/Knight/Page cards, often bear little resemblance to the question being asked but provide their own, often metaphorical, meanings.

A. PERFORMANCE AT PMQs.

1. Gordon Brown. IV CUPS.

Brown was certainly not at his best yesterday - his performance was clearly brusque and he was operating at the outer limits of his "emotional intelligence". The Four limits emotional competence and shows that the querent either has a lack of empathy or ideals or they have become jaded and disillusioned, even cynical, with these processes. Brown here did not show understanding and had little time for anything which came outside his meticulous world-view. He probably didn't expect this line of attack from Cameron, and answered it in his own way, but the limits were visible and the response muted, leaving some depressed and grumbling at the performance in general.

2. David Cameron. VI CUPS.

Cameron was on surer emotional territory and gave the impression here of finding something other than his least favourite topic to discuss with the Prime Minister, something that would portray himself as more emotionally developed than the Prime Minister and thus on firmer ground. He tried to "out-emotion" Brown and this card suggests he managed to find extra reserves of passion and empathy, enough to make him more reasonable in appearance and more engaged and committed to the anguish felt over Baby P by other people. The hint of issues in the past that this card conveys suggests he was more driven by a sense of injustice than Brown was - in his own life - and is more comfortable with this kind of issue in general than the Prime Minister.

3. Questions asked. KING OF CUPS.

The gist of the questioning was to channel Cameron's forte - emotional intelligence - into political questioning in order to master the debate during a difficult time for him in other lines of discourse. It might otherwise have been a difficult Question Time given the disappointing reception for what should have been his big day on Tuesday. The "hidden" element of the King of Cups - the possibility that the King of Cups is emotionally manipulative as well as literate - demonstrates the spontaneity of the topic designed to catch Brown out rather than hand him the joust on a plate because of the Tories' perceptable weakness on the economy. The King excels at emotional posturing and drive, and like other Cups he has an insubstantial and transient nature which can undermine his ability to empathise with others.

4. Answers given. VIII WANDS.

Brown's answers were hasty and rushed into service because of a difficulty with the subject and frustration with the nature of the questioning. He loosed his cannon-fire back at Cameron in an aggrieved and wounded manner and its lack of control provided the focus for this card. Although it may have found its mark and wounded Cameron into aggression rather than righteous indignation, it tended to rebound on Brown through its unfeeling appearance. It was chaotic and undignified, and although it may have provoked Cameron to far more anger than was strictly necessary at the accusation of playing politics and thus damaged the Leader of the Opposition's big day, it also made him look foolishly out of his depth.

B. REACTION TO PMQs.

1. Gordon Brown. VIII CUPS.

Brown has learned from this episode that a greater awareness of emotional responsibility is necessary; however there is a certain closure in this card which helps him to get over the difficulties easily. By getting Ed Balls to investigate properly he knows where there is scope for action on emotional grounds. Understanding this is of paramount importance for the introverted and often dour Brown, even if there is no way in which the government can be held responsible. For him to be seen to learn is always good.

2. David Cameron. JUSTICE.

Cameron is here under more scrutiny - in the longer term - than Brown is. He has been visibly going downhill over the last few weeks and therefore he has more to lose in this than the Prime Minister. The focus is here on him in a big way and he is being weighed in the balance, if not yet found wanting. Simon Carr's article is interesting, as he commented on IDS' downfall in a similar manner five years ago. Cameron is under the microscope at the moment, and although Quentin Lett's article praises him to the rafters (what a surprise!) a lot of the comments under the article are scathing of Cameron's behaviour as well as that of Brown, and Cameron has more to lose and is now in a more precarious position.

3. Questions asked. THE TOWER.

The reaction to the questions asked acts as a watershed in the careers of both politicians involved - it has led to questioning of both men and their motives rather than direct scrutiny of the real problems in Haringey. It brings both men to the boil - it raises questions over both leaderships - and it could be directly destructive for both.

4. Answers given. VII WANDS.

This card always shows a situation in which the defender is winning, but where substantial challenges still remain. Eventually the issue will therefore be solved - Brown will perhaps learn empathy, and Cameron learn to manage an economy properly so he doesn't have to hide behind dead babies at PMQs. Raising doubts about the competency of both men is good, as it puts our leadership under scrutiny and makes sure the best person available is left to run the country and challengers eliminated. Thinking about this, they both need to stop turning emotional issues into political footballs and maintain their dignity in Parliament, otherwise serious issues become lost in an emotional haze and we suffer from knee-jerk reactions. This battle will eventually be won, but at some cost to current leaderships in general.

C. OUTCOME.

1. Gordon Brown. QUEEN OF SWORDS.

Brown learns, ironically, how to become even more withdrawn and emotionally detached. As an arbitrater, he is a good Prime Minister. As a strategy it has some merit; he is at his best when he is able to focus on the nuts and bolts of policy and even politics. However, this does also have its flaws in the public mind, as the electorate tend to demand more engaging leaders who understand that although excessive handwringing becomes undignified, Brown needs to learn some emotional intelligence to balance his banker's brain.

2. David Cameron. PAGE OF SWORDS.

Since Cameron is a leader, he should have no real "superiors" to whom this Page answers in debate, as per the description in the book for this card. He should not be diminished by this - but appears to be. Skill in debate is one thing but what is needed is someone prepared, like Brown, to know what is best for discussion, responsibility and legislation, not someone whose emotions here get the better of him to score points off the other side. Cameron cannot afford just to be a Page; he needs to be a King.

3. Questions asked. VI PENTACLES.

The bringing forward of an important discussion despite the party political machines jousting on Baby P's behalf. The balance here has been struck and the building of a purposeful intiative to investigate Social Services in general has come out of the need DC felt to raise it at Question Time. A substantive measure now exists - under Ed Balls - thanks to Cameron's purple prose.

4. Answers given. IV PENTACLES.

Somewhat of a defensive attitude. The government, naturally enough, denies responsibility, and to be fair, cannot necessarily be expected to because Social Services is not run directly by Whitehall. The enquiry will be stymied or opposed by those in the firing line here. It is difficult to say whether Baby P will get ultimate justice in this manner (though the perpetrators are easier to prosecute than Shoesmith herself) but it may be difficult to get progress in such a climate of administrative sclerosis and obstruction.

(I wrote this, and switched on the computer to find Sharon Shoesmith is naturally trying to block an enquiry. Strike ONE!)

When David Davis resigned in the summer, I thought it was bad news for Vulpes Vulpes, given that it was the first time I had seen the phrase "Tories in turmoil" for, ooooh, two years (probably a world record there). However, the lead in the polls has since narrowed and Davis is trying again to provoke that magic little phrase, particularly after the last six weeks have not been that brilliant for the Conservative Party everyone previously thought might actually win this election. Davis, like Tim Montgomerie, still believes the Tories can win. Whether this is just obeisance to the party, giving it the benefit of the doubt, parenthesis round an otherwise critical brief, or sincerely believed, can be divined by the tarot.

Hence I have done quite a comprehensive analytical spread based on three tiers of cards. One row, a, is Davis' intentions in saying what he says in the interview for the New Statesman (the transcript has been released here). The second row, b, was how the reaction goes to this interview which might under certain circumstances be read as mildly critical of Cameron. The third row is the outcome for all five factors considered, c.

A. DAVIS' INTENTIONS

1. Short term. THE MAGICIAN - "The Magician represents a new range of opportunities, options and choices, and signifies the necessary skills, talents and chances to explore them. It is a card of great energy and creativity."

Davis here intends to use outlets open to him to kickstart his career. As a backbencher, albeit one with a more national profile, he has limited scope to use the media as effectively as he might as a frontbench spokesman. He has the short-term intention of making a noise, but this is more speculative and exploratory than combined with an obvious agenda.

2. Long term. V SWORDS - "This card suggests it would be wise to think carefully about a situation before deciding to tackle it. If you really cannot win, it may be better to be aware of this from the outset and not enter the fray. Try to recognise when a fight cannot be won and not waste precious resources."

Davis suggests he feels that he has been soundly defeated in the long-term - at least in the past long-term, if not in the future long-term - and is making this known. This is at least a conscious attempt to squash the idea he might challenge Cameron for the leadership, though some of the transcript bears all the hallmarks of those who go on to lead the party distancing themselves from any speculation that might be going on. Michael Howard himself put the kibosh on his own ambitions in this manner - six months before his own accession. It is likely that even if Davis has conceded defeat for the moment, this does not rule out a candidacy later - IF the vacancy should arise.  A NOTE - I had an eerie dream about a month ago where Cameron was deposed and Davis named as a co-respondent in the political divorce. You read it here first...

3. Leadership. III SWORDS - "When this card appears in a reading, it may point to an experience of disappointment or sadness. However, there is often a profound understanding that some pain is unavoidable - that it is inevitable and even right."

Davis makes this interview at a critical time for the Tory leadership and this may be the effect it has on the leadership, which Davis may hope for. The timing is such that it compounds Cameron's problems by being portrayed as panicky, and despite trying to conceal criticism behind stinging "faint praise" this card exposes the possible effect he hopes this interview will have.

4. Policy. DEATH -"Death heralds the inevitable ending of something, yet whenever there is an end there is always a new beginning. The change and transformation this card heralds may be desired or not; whichever it is, it cannot be avoided."

Davis does not talk extensively about policy except that which cut short his own front-bench career, so Death here represents his trajectory, rather than his views on the Tories in general. However, the key here is that Davis' intention is to provoke debate on policy in general and open up another course of action to the Tories by presenting himself as a gently critical friend.

5. Activity. V CUPS - "The Five of Cups describes the feeling of sadness, loss or disappointment when something one cares for is lost or spoilt. It is difficult to see remaining positives but they do exist, symbolised here by the full cups behind the grieving figure."

Davis feels this disappointment in Conservative activity and it is conveyed in much of what he says. He is now able to express this veiled discontent and he tried here to put out feelers towards a possibly more outspoken criticism of party policy and direction. The disappointment in current direction is all the more effective for how subtle it is.

B. REACTIONS

1. Short term. V PENTACLES - "The Five of Pentacles may point to a time of financial hardship or loss of money, sometimes accompanied by a loss of faith or loss of self-worth. While financial problems are uncomfortable, they are bearable if we do not lose faith or self-respect."

Davis may here provoke soul-searching or questioning despite the faint praise he uses to put his points about Cameron across. There is a scepticism that Davis does not mean to promote himself as the next leader, but the timing means it could ring some bells with people dissatisfied with the leadership - if they see through what he is trying to say, and Conservative Home may have done. There is a certain penetration of defenses here and a scepticism of his good intentions.

2. Long term. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE -"The Wheel of Fortune signifies a new beginning, a new chapter opening or a new run of luck. The important thing is to remember that all runs of luck, whether good or bad, do eventually come to an end."

The longer-term prognosis is neither good nor bad, but different. This may have come as a surprise to the leadership and its timing coincidental, but nevertheless it has a fundamental effect on the future as an element of change.The reaction here gives the article more strength than it might have had in less fragile times for the Tories, and may add fuel to a fire that could soon get out of control.

3. Leadership. KNIGHT OF WANDS - "The Knight of Wands symbolises travel. These journeys may be literal, spiritual or psychological. The card may point to a change of residence or even a move abroad. He may also represent a change of residence or even a move abroad. He may also represent an enthusiastic person or a longing for personal expansion."

The Knight of Wands delivers action which originates elsewhere. The leadership here react rather than initiate - they act retroactively and without much deliberate thought rather than considering the options available to them wisely. They move almost reflexively to shore up the damage the article might do as if they have something to lose by letting it go in a dignified manner. In this their panic may be revealed and compounded.

4. Policy. - STRENGTH - "The Strength card suggests the possibility of achieving self-awareness, personal inner strength and determination, and the courage to take on the task of self-discipline."

The party does not change its direction merely in response to this interview, but implied in Strength is the control of some other impulses which might be the province of the Knight in B3. The policy direction should not be affected by the article, but there may be some inner responses such as from Michael Gove - who disagreed with Davis over detention without charge - that have to be suppressed.

5. Activity. THE HANGED MAN - "In order to gain, something must first be relinquished, yet the decision is voluntary. The Hanged Man is an image of conscious choice; there is no question of being forced into any decision. A sacrifice is made willingly, yet it involves an act of faith because there are no guarantees regarding the outcome."

The activity may show only in minor details, but the inaction shown in the card is the suspension of something which can be missed. Regarding Davis, this might be quiet readjustment within CCHQ, who could be expected to know what Davis is telling them, reading between his lines. The party may be publicly trying not to give him credence, but seeing where his criticisms have most credibility are acting accordingly in private.

C. OUTCOME

1. Short term. III PENTACLES -"This card denotes some sort of material accomplishment that has been gained through hard work and perseverance. Even though it is not yet finished, it is worthy of recognition and a sense of achievement."

Some adjustments are made - materially - in the way things are done, based on covert criticisms. The construction here is just beginning, and may be a process of learning or studying rather than ambitious development, but it does suggest a climate where the seeds planted now will sprout healthily later on.

2. Long term. VIII SWORDS - "The Eight of Swords symbolises certain restrictions and difficulties. It shows that, while times are not easy, they are not impossibly hard either. Responsibility must be taken in order to change things. Perhaps the most difficult aspect of this card is deciding which direction to take out of an awkward situation."

The long-term impact of this is to box in rather than release the creative energy surrounding this situation. Davis cannt be outspokenly critical of Cameron and although measures are taken in C1, they may lead to a dead end which has to be exploded to escape from it. The restrictions on further development of the Three suggests the wrong lessons are being learned, and that is potentially as dangerous right now as doing nothing.

3. Leadership. KING OF SWORDS - "The King of Swords suggests it is time to start developing your mental skills and intellectual prowess in new ways. It can also mean that a figure of authority, perhaps connected with the legal profession, may enter your life."

The leadership takes note of the discussions here on a mental level at least and develops from the reactionary Knight of Wands to the more thoughtful and incisive King here. They still lack the "prime mover" asepct of the King of Pentacles, the ideal leader, but they have sharpened their responsiveness and no longer get involved in the petty mudslinging of the Knight of Wands.

4. Policy. II SWORDS -"The Two of Swords indicates a tense situation. There is reluctance about looking at it too closely for fear of having to alter the status quo. The blindfold symbolises resistance to change. The woman covers her eyes in the hope that difficulties, if unseen, will go away."

This represents continuing timidity in policymaking and continuing equivocation and lack of firm direction. This direction is static - there is no will to alter policy because criticism may not be read into Davis' words at a deeper level - and he may be dismissed as irrelevant. Policy does not fundamentally alter - any impulse to change is dealt with in Strength - and so things remain finely balanced and inconclusive for the moment.

5. Activity. II CUPS - "The Two of Cups combines the balance of the number Two with the watery, feeling nature of the suit of Cups to symbolise co-operation, sharing and friendship. This could signify the beginning of a love affair or platonic friendship. There is usually a sense of attraction at the start of a relationship and often we are attracted to qualities opposite to our own - hence the  image of masculine and feminine, which can also be seen as positive and negative, yin and yang."

The situation remains in the balance, echoing the Two of Swords in Policy with the Two of Cups here. A continuation and stasis in party campaigning - not going up, not going down. This is not dynamic but it seems to be the leadership's prepared game plan, perhaps attempting to ambush Labour nearer to an election with a full manifesto and coherent network on the ground in the constituencies where the election will be fought. This may be planned for the conference due to be held late next year (2009) which would be the last before a compulsory election in 2010. Davis has not impact here but the party takes this serenely and beatifically, not allowing it to derail its quiet somnolence for the moment.

It has been rather a disappointing day for the Conservatives with most newspapers being lukewarm to their ideas of allowing business a relief on NI for each new employee they take on, as well as criticism from Conservative Home on the general strategy being pursued. Tim Montgomerie's Tory house blog is sceptical - although it still says the Tories are on the way to election victory because Labour is so demoralised:

None of this need be electorally consequential. ConHome believes that Labour is so broken that the Conservatives are still on course to win the next election. As economic gloom descends the Tory lead will grow again. Middle Britain's allergic reaction to debt will finish off Mr Brown's undeserved reputation for prudence. Our concerns aren't electoral but about getting a really worthwhile Conservative economic policy.

However, flops such as this don't exist in isolation. Too many, and despite the possibilities the blogger here suggests, and Labour will win by default because of the lack of any sound alternative, despite whatever the Tories claim now. This could be one in a series of flops if the leadership does not see that its way forward is predicated not on miniscule, timid movements like this in the hope that they will win by default, but large eye-catching developments that, while still possibly light on policy, suggest the Tories know what they would be doing in government. David Davis' interview with the New Statesman - more on the possible impact of this later - suggests Blair was too busy engaged in winning the election that he neglected what he was going to do afterwards. Maybe. But the Tories need to at least try to manage to do both, like I believed Howard was capable of in 2005, had he had the time to portray himself as a leader-in-waiting and had the understanding needed to engage with the public in ways which Cameron has done all too much, like writing for mass-market tabloids about the Tory agenda and trying to beat Labour spin at its own game. He had the policies, could walk the walk, in a way, but he didn't - oddly enough for a politician - talk the talk.

On with the reading.

S. Situation. VIII SWORDS - "Restriction, major difficulties, enforced isolation and adverse circumstances dictated by Fate. These can, however, be gradually overcome by patient effort and attention to detail. This card appears on the surface to be very unfortunate in meaning, yet serves to indicate that a cycle of adversity is coming to an end and that changes for the better are already operating in one's life. But this is not an automatic process; opportunities must be grasped."

The Tories are in a bind here - the reaction to the cuts was universally bad for them - if the policy was not the issue, as it was for some newspaper columnists, then Conservative Home is sceptical about the presentation. It suggests that Labour is already broken and that this issue will not stop the Tories winning an election, but they criticise the scale and presentation of the policy nonetheless. There is a feeling that the Tories are handicapped by their reluctance or inability to do anything bigger or bolder.

1. External appearances. IV WANDS - "Achievement in the realm of ideas. The card of the successful and renowned designer, innovator or professional man. The establishment of beauty and elegance. Wit, mental activity, the most subtle arts of civilisation, refinement and culture."

The beginnings of something to come out of CCHQ but something very skeletal rather than substantial. Something here belongs to the realm of ideas and the policy is a good idea; it might not be much or substantially useful in a recession, but it is given credit for its intellectual foundations.

2. Internal discussions. THE FOOL - "Indicates an influence which is unexpected and unplanned, but which exerts a powerful force on the matter in hand. It is a challenge that can transform the situation in the querent's favour if properly handled. It indicates that an important decision or choice will have to be made if this card is well-placed, flanked by fortune cards, then a wise decision will be made, and perseverance will bring its rewards. If badly placed, flanked by unfortunate cards, warning is given of impending error. The Fool can also indicate the imminent start of a new cycle of destiny, and can refer to a type of person - the creative dreamer."

The internal reaction is that this is a spontaneous reaction to the need for some sort of political momentum and was not planned in any great detail. There has also been a loosening of some control and this marks the beginning of a new undercurrent within the party membership. Because of the situational cards, both already revealed and still to come, the negative traits of the discussion are primary here, and people are finding their voice to say that the party has lost its way in this particular instance.

3. Roots of the Situation. III SWORDS - "Necessary strife and conflict. Destruction of the that which is obsolete in order to clear the ground for what will come after. Disruption, upheaval, separation and discord, but all with a positive end in view - the establishment of something better."

The policy was badly received and badly-timed, and thus the situation here is the product of the need to create something out of nothing. The disruption to existing strategy notwithstanding, the Tories look as if they were hoping that this would make a greater impact than it did. They trailed it for two days in the press, addressed the spiel to the News of the World as putting money back in the pockets of people who earned it, and tried to make out that this was their entire tax package. When it arrived, it was therefore more disappointing than if it had been promoted as an element of business policy or combined with something more substantial. Hence the reaction to the policy was a big thumbs down despite the sense of the idea being fairly obvious to this "punk tax cutter" ((c) Daniel Finkelstein).

4. Consequences of the Situation. IX SWORDS - "Deception, disappointment, failure, cruelty, unreasoning passions, violence, scandal, all of which can be combatted by resignation, passive obedience, faith and calculated inaction. This is the card of the martyr; it brings strength and new life out of suffering."

The consequences of the disappointment associated with the Three and Eight of Swords intensifies problems rather than dissolves them. The party's internal debates become more heated and the leadership demonstrates again and again that there is nothing serious coming out of CCHQ, whether from the already-compromised Osborne or the damaged Cameron, who has fronted the latest round of policy promos to escape the stigma attached to Yachtgate.

5. Attitude of the Leadership. VII WANDS - "Indicates a time of great possibility which requires the exercise of courage and determination if it is to be realised. Points to powerful competition but victory through sustained effort. Triumph over the vicissitudes of fate through personal valour. Opposition, obstacles, adversities, but the promise that success is within reach."

The leadership still believes they can overcome the negative implications of the Roots-Situation-Consequences axis of cards. Cameron began this by attacking Brown over Baby P at PMQs rather than leave himself vulnerable over the economy. This made him look evasive to some but gave him time to think and try to deflect the blows he has already taken back at Brown. However, if there is a struggle, it is still ongoing and is not over yet, given that The Fool is rendered ill-dignified by the surrounding Swords cards and that as a consequence the internal debate over competency is hotting up.

6. Attitude of the Membership. V CUPS - "The cup of happiness is overturned, harmony is replced by worry and a sense of loss. Melancholy and disappointment are indicated here, yet though something is taken, alternatives remain to be explored. Indicates a need for reassessment of one's life, followed by a major restructuring. If this can be done, all is not lost."

The membership is upset by this policy launch and is making its feelings shown through the usual channels. The leadership may become embattled if Cameron cannot placate this disappointment and dissatisfaction. Restructuring the party can be done if there is the will to do so - it will not happen spontaneously without party disaffection being adequately communicated to and accepted by Cameron and his cronies before it reaches boiling point. This policy has been dismissed even by Conservative Home - so there is a possibility that this will go further than Cameron would like.

7. Actions taken - in general. KING OF WANDS - "A man who is noble and and courageous, and who exhibits qualities of great strength and fortitude. He is virile and passionate and has a loyal and generous nature. He is a lover of traditional ways and family life. He tends to act swiftly when provoked, yet on occasion may find it hard to be decisive because his essentially just outlook enables him to see every side of a problem. He often acts as a mediator and is splendid at giving moral support."

There is action taken here, and the Tories act with direct and decisive force to rectify the situation. This is a pre-emptive strike in order to put the political agenda back on course in their favour. It is not easy to tell what exactly will result from this but it appears the "future" part of many of the previous spreads has now come through to the present, meaning that there has been the necessary catalyst to action. The Tories are collectively able to make this move rather than just make feeble "responses" to current events - as anything less than the King would have suggested. 

8. Action taken by the Leadership. V WANDS - "Opposition, which requires mental agility to be defeated. Conflicts which cannot be avoided, tests that must be passed for further success to be attained or present achievements continued. Upheavals which call forth all resources of ingenuity and leave nothing secure. Indicates that the prize will have to be fought for relentlessly if it is to be gained."

The leadership cannot avoid this period of tension if it is going to critically re-evaluate its direction and dynamics and improve its performance on policy matters. It faces upheavals, but in many circumstances the Tories have been more flexible and less frightened of strife than their Labour counterparts, preferring to deal with bad leadership quickly rather than let it potentially ruin their electoral chances.

9. Action taken by the Membership. VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding-up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."

The membership drive these debates through numerous channels; however the emergence since the last impromptu leadership contest in 2003 of a thriving blogosphere makes opinion more transparent and therefore more deadly. The "crreative anarchy" provoked by this situation may be somewhat driven by the membership here rather than take place independent of it. Sudden activity on this front comes decisively from the important sections of the membership.

10 Direction. KING OF SWORDS - "He is mentally alert, inventive, of an original turn of mind, and is essentially rational in outlook. He is an advocate of law and order and an upholder of authority. He seeks executive office in order to see his ideas put into practice. Because of his versatility he often fails through lack of steady purpose; having formulated one plan he then proceeds to the next one with undue haste. He is an advocate of modernity at the expense of tradition."

The action here bases itself on the failure through lack of steady purpose - the Tories do not have a coherent game plan and cannot be expected to produce one because of the expectations built up before the policy announcement suggested this was the game plan, and they hoped for a great clamour of praise for it - and let themselves down. They have good intellectual bases for many ideas but do not have the political substance or will to put it into operation.

11. Solution. THE HANGED MAN - "The ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Flexibility of mind. Willingness to submit oneself to the dictates of the inner self and cast aside practical considerations when the time is right. Wisdom and guidance from the unconscious."

There is an implication here that the Tories let themselves be blown by fate into a solution to these issues. Because of the swift action on the part of the party forecasted by the King of Wands, they allow themselves to give in to the what the situation demands, rather than suppressing it or turning back the current tides. What this means in practical terms is not my job to tell, but it does mean that action is guided by the party's best interests in the long run whether or not it is difficult in the short term.

12. Outcome. QUEEN OF SWORDS - "She is highly intelligent, has a complex personality, and is concerned with attention to detail and accuracy in all things. She is alert to the attitudes and opinions of those around her and skilled at balancing opposing factions whilst she furthers her own schemes. She is self-reliant, swift-acting, versatile and inventive."

The Tories regain the initiative in dealing with internal issues but they are here focussed on improving their internal and external structures and presentations. For the moment they need to concentrate on putting their case together in order to fight Labour without disappointing the membership in the process. The Queen of Swords means looking critically within oneself to try and re-order things that have fallen out of place.

"[David Cameron] urged Prime Minister Gordon Brown to adopt the plan immediately, in order to prevent the numbers out of work from soaring further from its current level of 1.79 million."

What on earth is the point of being the Leader of the Opposition if you are going to give the Prime Minister suggestions how to run the government?

Vulpes vulpes has gone mad. The hounds are getting closer...

So much happening, so much to do. The Tory tax cut proposals were so derisory it hurt to read them. They may be good taken in isolation - but is this really stuff that should have been trailed for two days as Tory policy on tax cuts? I like the policy itself because it recognises that NI contributions become an indirect tax on jobs and under the Polish tax regime while I was out there in 2002-03, the rate of "ZUS" was so steep it was strangling huge numbers of new jobs and keeping earnings low, while the state did not benefit from high unemployment and the public sector was starved of funds.

So in principle I liked the idea of the policy. But it is far too little to benefit the average taxpayer or businesses during a recession which cannot in the first place afford to take on new employees. Like the VAT holiday Cameron proposed a few weeks ago it sounds good - but that policy turned out to be illegal under EU law.

What the Tories need is a really direct, focussed and consistent campaign promoting their whole raft of policies with the aim of stating their intentions on how they see themselves governing. Not just "looking at what needs to be done when we get in" - that presupposes they get in, and the latest poll lead would have them 20 seats short of an overall majority - and that's before Brown even calls an election. Campaigning on an "er...dunno...let me get back to you on that" slogan in front of a vastly more experienced and supple Labour propaganda machine will be similar to the manifesto Labour put up in 1983 - nicknamed "the longest suicide note in history".

The Tories need to sort out where their main clientele is. Does it watch Bloomberg or Sky One? Does it like fine wines or a pint down at the pub? Does it "do lunch" or go for a burger? They need to get a lot more populist, a lot more pragmatic, stop talking to the City and start listening to the people in the provinces. Otherwise Brown could announce another Marxist-Leninist revolution, storm the Winter Palace and raise the red flag over the Reichstag - and people would still vote for him. At his conference today he criticised the Tories for making unfunded tax cuts, and then later praised the idea of unfunded tax cuts later on.

It shouldn't be too difficult, should it?

Speaking of which...

LABOUR - 6% deficit in the polls - prospects for the moment.

S. Situation. IV CUPS - "The need to reach out for new friendships. In this card, the figure sits under a tree, looking into the cups - or friendships and relationships which they represent - but is failing to notice that another cup is being offered from out of the blue. This fourth cup, this un-expected offer of friendship or love, could well be what the figure is looking for."

Labour are given a boost by this after the weekend's disappointing result from ICM. This suggests that Glenrothes represented a definite shift in perception. The offer of sustenance is being offered to Labour - they still have to make the best use of it, but at least it is a good result for them to build on rather a pin to prick the Glenrothes bubble.

1. External appearances. IV PENTACLES - "Gathering coins together. The figure on the card is shown holding tightly onto a set of coins. Also a single coin rests on his head, suggesting that money matters now dominate his thinking completely."

For "money matters", read "government or executive authority". Labour are clinging tightly to a bounce and onto substantial gain - the Tory lead has been cut nine points from 15% to 6%) but are not yet ploughing ahead into an actual lead. They are grounded and focussed but not yet pro-actively striking at opponents (at least, that is what this card suggests). The foundations, however, of the Brown bounce are still there.

2. Internal discussions. V PENTACLES - "Shows unforeseen expenses. A very dfismal picture of poverty and also charity is given here. Again, as with other cards it may not show what is, but rather give a warning as to what could be unless steps are taken to avert it."

Labour are not here being distracted by false dawns, because there is a sense of proportion involved that holds them down to earth and makes sure they do not take leave of their senses. The Tories could still - with a 41% nominal share of the vote - win the most seats, though not now an overall majority. However, Labour still hold the levers of power and can use them to their advantage. The focus on the need for more improvement thus means that they will be making no hasty moves based on "ifs" and "buts" just yet.

3. Obstacles. II CUPS - "Either a new relationship or a new phase of an existing relationship."

The public do not love Brown and do not see him as the person to actually lead them forward, despite seeing him more in charge of economic arguments than his Tory counterparts. There is still ill-feeling inherent in this which may account for subconscious difficulties arising in the Five of Pentacles.

4. Overcoming obstacles. IX CUPS - "Experiencing life as a celebration. The figure in this card is clearly at the centre of a celebration, rejoicing their good fortune. If, in the querent's life there is little for them to be happy about, then this card would encourage them to look for things - small things maybe - over which they can begin to count themselves lucky."

The generosity which this card represents is akin to "sharing the proceeds of growth" in political economics. While the Ten of Cups represents lasting harmony and success in this area, the Nine is more immediately gratifying and seeing where there is still animosity is helpful to Labour, who are able to dispense things like tax cuts or concrete benefits, as opposed to the Opposition's hypothecating approach, exemplified by today's policy speech by David Cameron. Sharing the dividends in the short term, even if paid for later, would help out in any election.

5. Direction. IX PENTACLES - "Gaining recognition, in one's own and others' estimation. The figure here stands dressed with a beautiful set of medallions around their chest. Reminiscent of the golden medallions awarded to athletes at Olympic competitions, it suggests the achievement of honours or recognition as the direct result of the individual's own efforts and abilities."

Labour may not have developed the two Nines all the way back into the permanent Tens, but at least for now a modicum of stability prevails as Labour begin to understad public dissatisfaction and seek to remedy it in the short term. This translates the Nine of Cups - ideas and promises - into Pentacles - substantial developments, delivery of promises, and the cultivation of authority to reassert the bounce's current magic.

6. Solution. PAGE OF SWORDS - "This figure shows a young, inexperienced boy about to rush into a situation of conflict, armed only with a toy sword. The most he can achieve is that of getting himself into trouble. Don't rush into battle - and don't rush into other people's battles either."

Labour should not use this one poll as an excuse to be reckless or profligate, or appear naive and simplistic. This is an odd card to appear in the spread of such an experienced and stable operator such as Brown's Labour, but since this is not advice, rather a development which will occur naturally, this must be a rash act which undermines the previous two cards and prevents them providing the lasting stability of either Ten, as discussed above in 5.

7. Outcome. V WANDS - "Conflict. Stiff competition. Push through this with very strong determination."

One of Gordon's secondary totems is Ox (he is actually a Pheasant spirit, but he has had many life-times to develop and balance the flighty pheasant nature with sturdy Ox and supple Seal) and this bullishness will help him forge ahead through more difficulties. The outcome here is unclear - not yet on the "radar" but it suggests he will begin to fight hard to promote things that will be unpalatable to others but necessary for economic stability, or have to deal with more equivocal results than he hoped for. Nonetheless this card forecasts a period of strong hand-to-hand combat and Brown does not shrink from fights, thereby any wrestling will strengthen him somewhat or provide a useful object lesson for him at the very worst.

CONSERVATIVES - 6% lead in the polls - prospects for the moment.

S. Situation. QUEEN OF CUPS - "In a woman's cards, it would generally show either her, or a woman significant in her life in an emotional sense. In a man's cards, it would show either a significant woman or the "female" (receptive) side of his personality."

The Tories' receptivity to this poll is significant - it has been noticed and has drawn them up short. Cameron displayed a diffident and rather rattled face when he was quizzed about it during his presentation this morning on "tax cuts". So it has struck the Tories fairly hard that there is a problem. Receptivity brings understanding and action, so the impact has been quite substantial.

1. External appearances. KNIGHT OF WANDS - "Dynamic male energy. If it represents a person, it would show the querent or someone with whom they are connected in some area of activity. If it represents a process, it indicates the need for a high level of energy in order to handle the tasks at hand."

The Tories are pushing hard outwards and trying to justify or rationalise the result. They are making it look as if it has spurred them into action and are also suggesting that it shows Cameron in a better light than Brown as a forward-thinking leader. They are however questioning the methodology of the poll, a refuge for the scoundrel, while ignoring equally valid concerns about the ICM poll on Sunday which had them 13% ahead. A combination of legitimate posturing and insinuations which ill-become a rattled leadership. 

2. Internal discussions. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Abundance is the keyword here but it is directly related to your faith, your hope, your optimisms. The need to think on a bigger scale, to think not just of the next project. A person ultimately gets only what they truly expect. So let's make your expectations higher, so that we can get some bigger and better results."

The Tories should hope that this development should provoke them out of their complacency and allows them to explore more lasting ways of putting out their statement of aims and part of a manifesto. They need to be aware that they are reaping waht they have sown and that this represents a shift in the political narrative away from their hegemony and dominance of the agenda. This debate is currently important on Conservative Home, for example, and needs to reach its logical conclusion ASAP.

3. Obstacles. II PENTACLES - "The same kind of work, but movement is shown here onto or into something else. More of a sideways transition. Often shows as a transfer of some kind."

The political agenda is beginning to move against the Tories with the narrative eroding their previous leads as Brown reasserts control. This haemmorhage needs to be stopped by something bolder and less restrained than current output, particularly as the poll was taken after the Glenrothes result became known. This movement can be halted but the Tories must do it soon while they can still salvage a win on popular vote and at least a minority government (though this is a rare event at a general election and likely to produce a Labour or Conservative government with a small majority).

4. Overcoming the obstacles. IV PENTACLES - "Gathering coins together. The figure on the card is shown holding tightly onto a set of coins. Also a single coin rests on his head, suggesting that money matters now dominate his thinking completely."

The Tories are holding tightly to the few good points of the poll, trying to plug some of the leaks inherent in this result. They are concentrating on the details but are not thinking confidently about the wider picture or able to rise above bad results such as this. It is difficult for them to juggle these "coins", representing concrete benefits acquired over the last year, and the card's meaning often relates to defensiveness and possessiveness stemming here from a lack of confidence.

5. Direction. IV CUPS - "The need to reach out for new friendships. In this card, the figure sits under a tree, looking into the cups - or friendships and relationships which they represent - but is failing to notice that another cup is being offered from out of the blue. This fourth cup, this un-expected offer of friendship or love, could well be what the figure is looking for."

The Tories may be presented with a solution fairly soon - not wholly a bad one, but it would come from someone outside the current slate or from beyond Cameron's horizons. It may be welcome or not, but it would represent something that will help the immediate decay and erosion of the lead and keep the Tories upright without too much temporal disruption or damage to electoral prospects. However it may well represent a fundamental challenge to existing structures or leadership and may therefore be rejected.

6. Solution. VIII PENTACLES - "Skills properly applied. This card is similar in some way to the Three of Pentacles, in that it shows the same working tools being applied. Only here we have them being utilised in a far more professional manner than in the Three, where the figure was just beginning to get to grips with them. From the face of the man we see that he now has a beard, showing maturity, while in the background he has amassed a small stockpile of Pentacles which he has displayed on the wall behind him."

The Tories begin to construct something solid, but use their untapped reservoir of older and more experienced talent to do this properly rather than just relying on current "Cameroon" spin and bluster, or addressing the business community exclusively without playing more to the gallery of public opinion. They do end up sorting this out, but it will take a lot of work to reconstruct the Party along the lines needed for government.

7. Outcome. VI PENTACLES - "Rewarding on the basis of merit. Sharing is the theme here. But how do we go about rewarding fairly? This card would also look at how we choose to share our time and energy with others, between ourselves as individuals and our family, and so on."

The Tories begin to overcome the inertia currently handicapping them and produce solid political gains and progress back upwards. They have to go through the process described in the Four of Pentacles and Eight of Pentacles, including recognising the weaknesses and restructuring their front-bench and message so they are better positioned to capitalise on the current situation. To do this they need to accept and receive advice and assistance, and be as open to this process as the Queen of Pentacles is in the overall situation.

Continuing the series on overall party developments over the next month. I will look at the tax details later on but for the moment I have this second part to write up and the Populous poll to comment on.

NB This was all written before the poll with the 6% lead came out. I write each reading out longhand before I post them to the blog to make sure that I can draft things in peace without juggling two or three books or the cards themselves on my cluttered desk.

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY 10 November - 20 December

INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

S. Situation. VII CUPS - "Daydreaming threatens to distract you from pressing decisions that need to be made soon from pressing decisions that need to be made soon if you want to realise your hopes. Imagination is a wonderful faculty, but there is always a danger of it degenerating into mere wishful thinking. Divide your plans into distinct practical stages so that you can tell when they start to stray too far from reality."

The Tories need to become aware that they are taking far too much for granted at this point in time. Poll projections are only relevant if they would translate into actual election results rather than just being a snapshot of public opinion at a certain point in time. (More relevant would be polls taken after an election has been called or at least programmed in to the situation and expected at a certain time. Neil Kinnock found out that even exit polls can be misleading.) The Tories need to strip away the veneer of 13% poll leads and examine actualities in more detail, or at least regard the election as not already in the bag and act accordingly.

1. External appearances. PAGE OF CUPS - "The Page of Cups is the ideal student, patient, receptive, docile, and eager to learn. Often the card represents the need for such an attitude if you are to progress. There are times for assertion and times for humility, and this is one of them. If it represents another person, it means someone nearby is willing to learn from you, although they may be too shy to ask."

The leadership is boyish and eager to be seen to be doing things, but this could have undertones of naivete, puerility (Osborne's new attempt to challenge Peter Mandelson to a duel, for example) and coming across as learning on the job rather than laying down the foundations for a secure government. They are innocent and idealistic, but this is a double-edged sword when dealing with the "big boys" such as Brown, Darling and Mandelson.

2. Internal movements. IX PENTACLES - "You are likely to receive substantial reward for your accomplishments and you will be able to afford to relax and enjoy your more contemplative inclinations. Don't shut out your family and friends, however, because they have had to put up with your darker words and have probably helped you through them much more than you know."

The Conservatives have a certain stability here which was lacking prior to Cameron's appointment; this internal consistency balances them and gives an underlying confidence missing from previous leaderships. However, this could ossify into complacency and coupled with the Seven of Cups it suggests that the Nine may be predicated on illusions of poll stability that Brown may seek to exploit with greater innovation and radicalism than Cameron is expecting or can match.

3. Roots of the situation. THE HIGH PRIESTESS - "Inspiration, learning, mystery, understanding of the inner workings of life, enlightenment and serenity are all represented by this card, with a hint that serenity can sometimes lead to emotional detachment from daily events. Often this card implies that hidden spiritual factors are currently affecting your life, so look carefully within, or consult a respected advisor."

There is a stability here which echoes the Nine of Pentacles and suggests that the Tories believe they are sitting on a solid poll lead, given that Brown has not eroded this deeper into single figures [as of yesterday afternoon] than 8% ahead. There is a feeling of depth here which may be deceptive given the appearance of the Seven of Cups; however there is some way that the Tories have moved away from divisive internal debates and towards more of a pact based on attaining power at the next election.

4. Consequences of the situation. II PENTACLES - "Difficulty and embarrassment at the beginning of a new business venture is suggested by this card, but the prospects are very promising if you are prepared to put in the hard work and resist making reckless gambles. Times of change like this are full of opportunity but also risk, so be prepared for a rollercoaster of a journey!"

Changes in this healthy looking situation [such as a poll haemmorhage fully taking into account the events of Glenrothes], but slower and more obvious than those which could destabilise the leadership completely. However, this change could well be damaging and could lead to necessary adjustments in the strategy or team rather than outright leadership challenges. There will be slippage here unless the Tories realise that they are being deluded by false polls about the likelihood of achieving current ratings during an election campaign and begin to be more pro-active and less complacent.

EXTERNAL FACTORS AND MEANS TO AN END

5. Advice. IX CUPS - "Victory and success come your way as several long-held dreams come true. Share your good luck with others and it will be multiplied. This is a good time for looking forward and making fresh plans for the future, because your confidence will be infectious. Several new and stimulating friends are likely to enter your life."

The Tories need to keep on generating ideas which are easily understood at the most basic level. As an advice card, this suggests the Tory leadership should carry on putting out their plans for office and be lavish and generous with the publicity in order to make themselves accessible to the general public and prove that they are the ones who can give Britain the abundance this card represents.

6. Warning. TEMPERANCE - "Disunion, overwork, competing interests, dissipation, restlessness and waste can all lead to a feeling of exhaustion. Nothing seems to have any real meaning and if the mood persists long enough, friends will begin to fall away. The past feels like a burden because you are unable to learn from it."

There have been difficult cards throughout recent Tory spreads, and the Tories must not now succumb to the itch that has caused the downfall of three previous leaderships. Disloyalty is likely to focus on the sense that Cameron and Osborne are squandering their poll leads and that the representatives of the official line - Louise Bagshawe in particular - do not take discussions seriously, nor seem to absorb problems in the system until it may be too late.

7. Pro-Tory media bias. THE MOON - "A choice needs to be made that could determine your happiness for a long time ahead. You need to be guided by intuition and feelings when making this choice, but at the same time there is a real danger of delusion, of being misled by wishful thinking or by someone whose judgement you trust. Times like this are true tests of character and your grasp on reality."

The media are hedging their bets, basing their support on actual events rather than pledging unswerving loyalty to a particular party. The Moon traditionally shows that answers are hidden and only revealed when the time is right. The media is neither pro- nor anti-Tory, but bases its support or bias on the way the wind is blowing. The Tories often complain about bias - sometimes openly - but need here to realise that support follows actions, rather than preceding them.

8. Anti-Tory media bias. QUEEN OF PENTACLES - "The Queen becomes greedy, spiteful, estrangement, suspicious, demanding and full of complaints about the ingratitude of the world. She is blind to others' good intentions. Beware of succumbing to her oddly persuasive views."

Firstly, the media does have an inbuilt liberal bias and now that Labour have improved their standings in the polls - and at the polls - the media do not lionise the Tories nearly as much as they did before conference. In the second instance, it is Tory jealousy which is eating the Party, which means that the energy which should go into policy and its promotion is expended on a naked campaign against supposed bias which plays into the hands of corporate elements such as News International. The Tories need to realise the media is not going to give them the benefit of the doubt, particularly over scandals such as Yachtgate, until they become more pro-active and accept that bias tends to favour the party who are most in control of the agenda and use it to effectively politick their way into government.

9. Favourable movements. IV SWORDS - "A temporary relief from struggle. Use solitude to plan a way forward because the chances are that much will be demanded of you again soon. This can refer to either health or your personal life. Remember, with hindsight all the best achievements involve triumph over adversity."

The Four denotes a chance to reorientate the party and to repair broken parts of the machine in order to go forward properly with a more decisive and less timid manner. There is a break-off and a rupture implied, but the necessary "chrysalis" period is allowed and the party emerges ready for the potential that 2009 could be even better than 2008.

10. Unfavourable movements. V CUPS - "Unexpected news arrives, and possibly in the form of a surprise visit from an old friend who will lift your spirits and suggest new ideas and ways forward. They may also remind you of past events that you would rather forget, but try if you can to learn their lessons."

The Tories here are confronted by unforeseen realities and the difficulties inherent in the policy of excluding anyone redolent of past government or opposition are revealed. There is the need to face up to these problems and to find a solution which will re-energise the party to be able to go the few last miles towards Downing Street. Momentum needs to be generated to carry the party through this time, though this is not a sudden collapse, more the result of a puncture which may already have happened somewhere along the line gradually deflating morale and expectations. [Politics Home gives an interesting idea of the morale of the three parties and as Tory morale declines, Labour morale is up.]

11. Resources. THE HIEROPHANT - "Providing comfort, security, the wisdom of the ages and generosity in others' time of need are among the many virtues of the Hierophant that make him someone to turn to in troubled times. But inflexibility - a lack of openness to change - can often negate these virtues. Too great a reverence for the past can become hostility toward all change and then the Hierophant symbolises an obstacle to growth. He can also indicate marriage or other lasting union."

The Tories have historically relied on the gravitas of former government or Cabinet members to guide them back to power after Labour terms. Churchill, Heath and Thatcher created this trend, and Howard appeared to have the stature to head a cabinet but was unfortunately stymied by the ruthlessness of Blair. While the caveat expressed by the description reminds the Party not to suffocate growth and the next generation to a gerontocracy, the Party should begin to seek advice from its elder statesmen [unless they, like a BBC reporter talking about Menzies Campbell, believe being "statesmanlike" is a disadvantage] to form the backbone of a new government before they take the situation into their own hands as per the Five of Cups.

12. Obstacles. HAPPY EVER AFTER - denotes an extremely bad ending to a previous situation.

Ill-dignified this card suggests that there will at some point have to be a clean break and complete renewal of what has gone "off" with the current arrangements. The appearance of this card in a negative situation confirms a feeling that the omens have not been too good despite the surface tension of the party appearing calm and unbroken; it suggests an earthquake happening to derail the current situation and for it to need serious re-orientation if the party is to maintain its current standing nationally.

OUTCOMES

13. Direction. III WANDS - "Success and recognition are yours for the taking. Therefore this is a good time for beginning new long-term enterprises, especially in the fields of arts and crafts although it may be some time before the financial rewards come to you. Meanwhile, simply enjoy exercising your talents and have faith that others will equally enjoy what you do."

The trend is upwards - the previous disruptions notwithstanding. Coming through the breakdowns is going to be testing but the movement thereafter at least suggests that developments begin quickly after the restoration of the leadership's control and that the slow but steady nature of this tendency becomes more sustained and quickens in pace towards Christmas and beyond.

14. Trend. THE SUN - "Good fortune, material success, energy and joy are all promised by this card as whatever you undertake is blessed. New beginnings are suggested by the children and the sunflowers craning for the sky. This is a good time for new partnerships in all spheres of life and for refreshing your spirits through simple enjoyment of the good things on offer."

Fortune continues to shine on the Tories and develop and grow their electoral prospects. From the beginning of the Three the situation heats up and allows the Conservative Party to really begin to refresh itself after it has been through the previous stage of calamity and strife. Any breakdown is temporary and the power inherent in this card suggests that the Tories can look forward to solving problems that bedevil them for a while.

15. Solution. KING OF WANDS - "The King of Wands is a charming leader who is energetic, honest and generous. His fatherliness can tend towards being too trusting. Being naturally loyal and conscientious he is a great friend in times of trouble, being unafraid to take up arms in a good cause. In a spread he can represent either the attitude needed to address the situation, or the person you should turn to help."

This could represent the leadership after the next crisis has blown itself out. Whether or not it is a renewed and re-energised Cameron who still occupies the role depends on how he handles preceding developments or whether he is destroyed by them in the party's attempt to kickstart their revival, given that his cards in recent spreads have been problematic. There is a new potency here, an opportunism inherent in the King of Wands as opposed to the King of Pentacles' access to executive authority and the King of Cups' and the King of Swords' idealism and intellectualism respectively. This leader has the drive and focus necessary to fight the coming election whenever it is held.

16. Outcome. VII PENTACLES - "The Seven foretells a truly rewarding time. The possibilities before you are quite awesome, but do think in the long-term. Decide who you are and what you would like to be remembered for by your family and friends. The choices you face really are that important. Destiny is at work."

The Party has come a long way but there is still a long way to go to achieve an overall majority in an election. This is the card of sowing what you will later reap - after the solution of an opportunistic and aggressive re-orientation on the part of the leadership this brings the need to solidify and develop possibilities for government. In a sense there is a genuine development of substance after wasted opportunities in the past, and the development of an alternative programme to rival Labour's plans for government. Positive and genuine increases and gains after the watershed of the past cards has worked its way through.

...but is it?!

Gordon gets a real boost from Glenrothes. SIX PER CENT. Something must have come of that astonishing victory.

Reading and commentary tomorrow, along with the second part of the party developments. Some of the commentary alongside this poll reminds me of the radio quiz show "Brain of Britain", where contestants are still referred to as "Mr Brown" or "Mr Cameron" rather than "Gordon" or "Dave". My parents are the R4 addicts (I prefer iTunes or last.fm, or Reading's local 210 FM, which I got hooked on when I was 14) but I can't help thinking "that's forty-one points to Mr Cameron and thirty-five points to Mr Brown, with Mr Clegg still on 16" while reading the article. Despite its antiquity, BoB sounds more exciting than some more modern quiz shows, a bit like a horse race on Mogadon, but still more exciting on a rainy afternoon than Strictly Come X-Factor. Mastermind and University Challenge are weekly sports fixtures in our house, but that's a legacy of my working-class Bolton dad growing up in a household where the urge to better oneself came through the fly-paper acquisition of general knowledge. Trivial Pursuit is also a game we take very seriously, sometimes even enjoying away matches with my uncle in Alloa who does better because he additionally knows all the entertainment questions. My dad has 3 DVDs, mostly of Peter Kay, two still in the shrink-wrap. Uncle Ian has 300...

Erm...where were we? Oh yes. Politics.

Sorry to appear anti-Conservative but if they are going to raise their game properly they need a few weeks of relatively bad poll results to shock them out of their complacency. Game on!

I thought it was time to detach my readings from events, because it seems odd to have the Tories stumble on the "right answer" and suddenly turn out to be a disappointment and heartbreak regardless of the positives of them stating their policy on tax.

Thus I am doing two spreads which look at the two main parties and how they will orientate themselves, use the means available to them, and emerge over the period leading up to this 24-day Christmas recess Harman is giving them. Before that we still have a month to six weeks of "he-said-she-said" and so I want to ask - how will this play out for the two main leaderships, Brown and Cameron.

Starting here with Labour, and will post the Conservative spread anon.

LABOUR PARTY 10 November - 20 December

INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS S. Situation. VIII CUPS - "Restlessness causes you to question many aspects of your life and possibly with good cause, as maybe it is time for some major changes. But remember that it is your own restlessness and need for a sense of purpose that is driving you. Others will not appreciate being blamed for what is basically your problem."

Labour are trying to establish a new programme and sense of purpose with which to go forward now that the worst seems to be over. The former difficulties are however not entirely dissipating and the Brown bounce has not yet taken them back into the lead. However this is good in that restlessness always generates movement and search for better combinations and if Labour can keep itself steady but dynamic this should give them forward momentum.

1. External appearances. THE HIGH PRIESTESS - "Inspiration, learning, mystery, understanding of the inner workings of life, enlightenment and serenity are all represented by this card, with a hint that serenity can sometimes lead to emotional detachment from daily events. Often this card implies that hidden spiritual factors are currently affecting your life, so look carefully within, or consult a respected advisor."

Labour are projecting a relaxed but opaque face to the world, as if they are not panicking enough to rock the government further, nor betraying any of the restlessness that they face in S. The balanced, neutral and even confident exterior is at least a change from running around in a frenzy of questioning Brown's leadership or government strategy; Brown to me had this face turned towards the world even at the nadir of his popularity. Still waters may run deep, but this is only the public face.

2. Internal movements. KNIGHT OF CUPS - "The Knight of Cups is romantic, loyal, generous, friendly, thoughtful and idealistic. He inspires new ventures in both the romantic and practical fields without expecting much in return. This Knight is happiest when embarked upon some great spiritual quest like that of the Holy Grail. He signals the possibility of an idealistic new venture coming your way, possibly from an old friend."

The Knight suggests Labour is reaching deep into its policy-making expertise to try and find some more innovation to solve the current financial crises. The demands from Labour MPs for Gordon Brown to reduce taxation is surprising in the context of their Keynesian ideology but it may be a sign of flexibility and nuanced preparedness to try hard to maintain power and pre-empt opponents' own discussions. The Cups symbolise ideas and idealism rather than practical or executive considerations but this still shows a willingness to move into hitherto taboos areas.

3. Roots of the situation. "HAPPILY EVER AFTER" - denotes an extremely good ending to a previous situation.

The appearance of the "extra" card in the Dragon Tarot pack symbolises an ending of a happy and even transcendent/sublime nature. This appears to be the Glenrothes result, which exceeded expectations - despite being a solid safe seat, Labour had already lost 2 this year and may have lost a third. Therefore the intensely positive nature of this card shows the roots of Labour's restlessness are positive, energising factors and not dissatisfaction or discomfort.

4. Consequences of the situation. VI SWORDS - "The Six represents unexpected developments, possibly a journey or business opportunity that will open the way to realising your ambitions in surprising way. Leap at the chance whatever the immediate obstacles; this is not the time for hesitation or counting the pennies. In the long term it will feel worthwhile."

Labour are generating ideas but they are risky and they need to be fully implemented to have the desired effect. Taking Tory policies has previously been a case of piecemeal implementation - enough to defuse a potential vote-winner but not enough to realise the spirit of the enterprise the Tories envisaged (for example, Brown took a blanket £500 rebate on council tax bills for the over-65s and made it into a £250 rebate, for one year, only available on application). Labour are now gambling on direct and concrete implementation of daring thinking for a left-wing Prime Minister and could reap the rewards while the Tories are more hesitant.

EXTERNAL FACTORS AND MEANS TO AN END

5. Advice. TEMPERANCE - "Discipline, patience, restraint and thoughtfulness lead to happiness and quiet success. Creativity and contentment go hand in hand. This is not a card of fame and glory, but of the simple pleasures of daily life properly appreciated. It represents compromise in its most creative sense, and the ideal conditions for raising a family or cultivating a long-term career."

Labour need to take it steadily and not try and bid recklessly or squander resources trying to out-bid the Tories. Maintaining balance and poise should leave them able to think before they make promises they cannot keep in order to be able to keep the books balanced. Outfoxing the Tories should be a priority, but not at the expense of common sense.

6. Warning. PAGE OF PENTACLES - "The dreaminess of the upright Page becomes a curse and the Page tries to compensate by becoming prickly and demanding over things that do not really matter, lacking any true sense of proportion. He becomes unreliable and selfish."

Brown should not become complacent that the Tories are not going to be killed off by current events and that he still does not have enough slack in the system to waste. He has never been bad at making good policy but he needs to be warned that his bounce cannot be taken for granted - as in the recent ICM poll - and he must tighten, not slacken the pace if he wants to restore his leadership to the levels of his mid-2007 popularity

7. Pro-Labour media bias. VI CUPS - "Nostalgia is likely to affect you as you become aware of just how many current events have their roots way back in your distant past. This is healthy up to a point because you will soon face a major life choice, and drawing upon the lessons of the past can help ensure that you make the right decision in the near future. Also, seek the advice of good friends."

Labour can be assured of a certain institutionalised loyalty and the media could be forgiven to returning to a generally favourable level of coverage in the wake of several fairly good weeks and a narrowing Tory lead. The media are more balanced since Blair left office and stopped hypnotising the right-wing press, but can be relied upon to predicate their support on subconscious loyalty rather than the scepticism and disbelief that accompanied previous Tory leads (for example, after the accession of Michael Howard in 2003).

8. Anti-Labour media bias. II SWORDS - "An old enemy or rival offers a truce, but they are not being completely honest. Falsehood and duplicity are suggested by this card, and someone will let you down. Tread carefully - have several escape routes planned."

Labour cannot take the natural bias completely for granted - Cameron came into office determined to court the media, not disdain it as Michael Howard did in 2003-05 (Howard apparently considered the use of the media to highlight defections from Labour a cheap trick and beneath his dignity as a Conservative leader; instead of making play of direct switchers the Tories ignored the possibility of promoting them. I should know - I was a member of the Labour party right up to the day I joined the Tories, and the Tory response to me badgering them about this was "so what? it's not that uncommon". Highlighting a few people who did switch directly would have improved the perception of the party in the press, just like the relief of Glenrothes has saved the perception of the Brown bounce as just a sleight-of-hand poll trick). Labour currently enjoy being given the benefit of the doubt but they can no longer rely on an in-built hostility ot the Tories because if the Opposition leadership has succeeded anywhere it is in appealing to the very picky and often querulous Conservative press and making overtures to the Labour-supporting broadsheets such as the Guardian and the Independent.

9. Favourable movements. ACE OF CUPS REVERSED - "The Ace represents the exact opposite of the upright meaning - emotional upheaval, sterility, relationship break-up, the collapse of hopes, betrayal and insecurity, especially in personal relationships. Summon up your inner strengths."

Brown should be warned of further difficulties and double problems, since this card has come out reversed even in a nominally good position. The difficulties here may be "exalted", in that they represent a necessary clash of personalities, and Brown may end up saving the day and coming out of this better than when he went in, despite a certain amount of necessary bloodletting. Could indicate a resignation that stabilises the Cabinet overall, for example.

10. Unfavourable movements. ACE OF WANDS - "The reversed Ace warns of the danger of getting too attached to new beginnings that haven't been thought through properly, of being unrealistic and not fully committed to your undertakings. There is a slim chance of success here, but only if you work at it."

Brown needs to be warned that his bounce may peter out if he does not keep going properly over the winter. He needs to grasp several nettles and make decisions quickly without being too hasty, and use the resources available. He needs to continue to bail Labour out and promote himself as a leader who can maintain high energy levels for a long time.

11. Resources. THE MOON - "A choice needs to be made that could determine your happiness for a long time ahead. You need to be guided by intuition and feelings when making this choice, but at the same time there is a real danger of delusion, of being misled by wishful thinking or by someone whose judgement you trust. Times like this are true tests of character and your grasp on reality."

Brown generally acts well on hunches and thus can often ride out crises in confidence and deal with situations where his leadership would be questioned - with a heavy dose of good luck involved as at Glenrothes. Brown needs to continue to do what feels right and not take anything at face value, either good or bad. His depth of character has made him a stable, intuitive leader and has for a while suggested he is always one step ahead of everybody else. He needs to keep his faith in this trait and develop it into something that appears to learn from apparent mistakes than just trusting in long-term deliverance.

12. Obstacles. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Bad luck, obstruction, betrayal and indifference all conspire to bring you to a standsill. This is a bad time for new undertakings and also for gambling. Concentrate on small, practical achievements that will bear fruit. Practice cheerfulness in the face of adversity. It will pass."

Labour can expect more bad luck and is facing the same prospects as the Tories' cards have shown for a week or two. It may be that both parties face difficulties outside their control and the eventual winner will be the party which can manage their bad luck the best and come out of it having learned the most.

OUTCOMES

13. Direction. II PENTACLES - "Difficulty and embarrassment at the beginning of a new business venture is suggested by this card, but the prospects are very promising if you are prepared to put in the hard work and resist making reckless gambles. Times of change like this are full of opportunity but also risk, so be prepared for a rollercoaster of a journey!"

Brown has been up and down so much he must feel like a yo-yo, and despite the "bounce" this still lies ahead in a mild form - the absence of anything dramatic like some of the "ending" cards do point towards a storm he can weather, but he needs support from his colleagues and balance in government to stabilise the bounce and direct it upwards. There is still enough to play for that Brown can be confident of steering though this next period, but this is dependent on outside factors being to his advantage and not going the Tories' way. Manageable problems but ones which need a robust and firm leadership if he is to pull through.

14. Trend. IX WANDS "You enjoy well-earned success gained through honesty, hard work and intelligence. However, troubles are brewing on the horizon, and you are soon likely to be tested to the very limits of your patience and ability. Take the time now to cultivate key allies, and check too that your finances are robust enough to cope with unexpected demands."

 Brown here is not wholly out of the woods but at least he knows how to get out when difficulty does arise. The cards prophesy difficulties ahead but also a robust enough response to them to have people suggesting that he may still be the safest bet in a recession despite supposedly being to blame for it in the first place. He defends well enough to shore up his position to later go back on the offensive.

15. Solution. VII SWORDS - "Hope appears after a long struggle, but keep your guard up. You face opposition to your plans and it would be wise to learn its source, but you can achieve your aims if you persevere and be certain of your facts. Avoid direct confrontation, however; instead let your ideas speak for themselves."

There is the sense of overcoming challenges both in this card and the last one, which suggests that although Brown is running to stand still, he is keeping up a certain dynamic balance which, like a gyroscope, gives him stability and movement at the same time. There is light at the end of the tunnel - not just an oncoming train - but how long that tunnel is is still unknown.

16. Overall outcome. VII WANDS - "Success is likely, even though all the odds appear to be stacked against you. Victory will be all the sweeter for the effort it takes you, and sweeter still if you just quietly get on with doing whatever is necessary without complaint. Others may be trying to undermine you, but just talk things through with them openly and the threat will go away."

Another card where the balance of probabilities is stacked in Brown's favour, if not the overall direction of events for the time being. Brown is breaking even and even profiting from this time, but the results will not yet be clear whether he is sinking or swimming merely by Christmas, ruling out the possibility for the moment of a snap poll. However this is clearly a response to the Wheel of Fortune, which in its ill-dignified aspect suggests a major challenge and upheaval before Christmas which is out of both Brown's and Labour's direct control. These two cards - 15 and 16 are positive but mean that challenges are not evaporating overnight.

Apologies for the long wait for this post but there was a power cut right after I praised David Cameron's new trailer for Tory tax policies. Stranger things have happened but the original post seems to have been lost, so therefore I know not to do that again. Originally the power company said that it would take until the early hours of tomorrow morning to get the fault fixed, but we were just buckling up to go out when things came back on, and so as not to waste the spag bol I had been in the process of cooking, we stayed at home.

So obviously I am not allowed to praise Foxy then. Shame, because his plans to announce tax policy later this coming week are actually what people have been asking for for a while, though it doesn't seem to change the overall predictions.

Also I am fully booked to be in Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania between Monday 24th November and Monday 8th December, so this blog will be coming to you from the Baltic States between those dates. I will be taking my mother's camera (mine is a cheapo s/h one that stopped working a number of months ago) so I will be able to upload photos and a travel diary of sorts.

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY

1. External appearances of poll. STRENGTH - "A pointer towards exercising your qualities of reason, rather than to respond wiith anger, injured pride or feelings of self-importance. The lion on his own can be a very destructive force, but when feelings are brought under the jurisdiction of the mind, then something much more positive can be derived."

The Tories have not sunk behind Labour yet but their response to this poll have been rationalisations and muted concern (apart from Louise Bagshawe, for whom complacency is not obviously a dirty word). They are apparently still holding Labour off and need to keep doing so. To do this they need to capitalise on these leads and understand that Rome was not built in a day.

2. Internal expressions to this poll. TEMPERANCE REVERSED - "Overlooking pitfalls. Not centred, little foundation. Dispersed energy pattern."

A very unbalanced and difficult card which suggests a lack of coherency and stability. (It fell out of the pack reversed even though all the other cards were upright.) The Tories do not seem to have the same potential for actual growth and even Tim Montgomerie at one point played down the significance of the result by pointing out that relative to pre-conference lows, Brown had still maintained part of his "bounce". Not a good omen for the Tories and an imbalance needing correction in one way or another.

3. Obstacles. KNIGHT OF WANDS - "Dynamic male energy. If it represents a person, it would show the querent or someone with whom they are connected in some area of activity. If it represents a process, it indicates the need for a high level of energy to complete the tasks at hand."

The Tories lack this energy level needed - as in the inverted Temperance - and need to generate it properly to turn these poll margins into reality at a general election. The lack of electoral ballast in Glenrothes was expected but still, in the words of the Telegraph, "pitiful". The Tories need to overcome this inertia or else snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

4. Overcoming these obstacles. IV WANDS - "Welcome home! The poles are dressed for an important guest to return to the castle and that guest is to be greatly honoured. Working with other people toward a common purpose."

The Tories overcame part of this inertia by actually beginning to put forward plans for tax cuts. I am tentatively welcoming this because it may help put some flesh on the bones of a proper manifesto. However, this is only the beginnings of a secure structure and there needs to be real progress on this front in order to stave off problems closer to the election.

5. Direction. THE SUN - "An opportunity to plan, build, execute projects. Entering a period of sustained empowerment. Light after darkness."

There is a sense of illumination and construction here with Cameron's team beginning to respond to criticism that they have been in danger of slipping further because of a reluctance to promote policies that would engender a more concrete public profile and maintain some of the momentum they generated during 2008.

6. Solution. V CUPS - "Disillusionment, if you rely on the commitments of others. The need for self-reliance. Also don't focus so much on the past. Here, the figure in the card must turn around from what has been spilled and drink afresh from the cups which stand upright."

It may however be too little too late - the negativity of the outcome cards is still there, and this belies the presence of The Sun in the "Direction" position because it means that something elsewhere has failed. Although at this point it is best not to make a mountain out of a molehill, the failure of this to create momentum is palpable and the opportunity wasted for making political capital. The Tories need to tread carefully; but I am not able to advise them directly so anything I say is not going to be taken seriously enough to avert spillage. Whether they can mop it up is another matter.

7. Outcome in the end. III SWORDS - "A human heart pierced by three swords. Heartbreak, unless you can communicate."

As indicated by the Four of Wands and The Sun, there is life in these tax proposals and poll to energise the Conservative Party and make sure it stays in the running and free from complacency. But, counter-intuitive to this, the end result doesn't appear to be good - why has yet to be revealed, but perhaps this policy is a damp squib, or the agenda is stolen by other crises elsewhere in the Party to turn things sour at the last moment. I would say I am happy with Cameron finally putting something forward, but the end result seems to be negative. How negative remains to be seen.

I did get drunk, and I did get hungover this morning. So I was excused from the Remembrance Day commemorations at the local war memorial, unfortunately. However I was there in spirit.

The Sunday Telegraph has published an ICM poll showing the Conservatives with a 13% lead - cue the usual crowing from Louise Bagshawe (appropriate, because she like me is a Crow totem). Given the Tories are still in for a rather messy future, perhaps it is time to look more closely at both parties without confusing the issue by reading for particular events. The outcomes forecasted are if anything counter-intuitive, unless the current plans to cut taxes are a damp squib and this poll - taken on Nov 5 and 6, before the Glenrothes election result - is going to provoke complacency rather than action on all fronts.

By the way, the betting price that I am a troll on Conservative Home is up to £5.00 as of last posting. Personally I resent that remark, because I'm a Conservative member and voter, but what is wrong with a bird's-eye perspective on things? I'd rather be considered a troll than be so blinkered and unthinking I make Mandelson look indepedent-minded. I can't help the fact that I took a disliking to Cameron the day I first saw him in the papers. I can't help the way the cards are falling for him. I come with personal references as an election campaigner from two new Tory MPs, both of whom introduced me to people at Conference 2005 as "the person who won me my seat", and John Redwood still sends me a Christmas card. What other Tory credentials can I have?

I'm just trying to play Devil's Advocate because I think the party deserves better management, focus by its Shadow Cabinet and expression of its raison d'etre and I'm certainly NOT making The Tower up.

This is the assessment for Labour then.

LABOUR

1. External appearances after this poll. THREE OF PENTACLES - "The card for studying, for learning new subjects or enhancing skills, especially through training."

Labour are making modest progress, though the initial impact of the 13% deficit indicates that there is a lot more ground to make up. They are keeping ahead of the Tories in terms of their record on the economy, which will probably be more important at any general election than "who gets on best with Barack Obama". Still, the public perception is still that they have a long way to go to put themselves into a position where they can risk calling an election.

2. Internal expressions after this poll. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Abundance is the keyword here, but it is directly related to your faith, your hope, your optimism. The need to think on a bigger scale, to think not just of the next project but on the next 100 projects! A person ultimately gets only what they truly expect. So let's make your expectation higher, so that we can get some bigger and better results."

Referring to the shock of the Glenrothes result and the Wheel of Fortune turning unexpectedly in their favour, Labour believe more in their own potential than they have done for a while. A shift has happened internally such that there are now more grounds for optimism than previously. A change in internal perception from "glass half empty" to "glass half full" may improve psychological expectations and thus before long be reflected in reality.

3. Obstacles. ACE OF PENTACLES - "A new doorway opening up for exploration, which may well be beneficial to go through and explore. In particular it refers to work opportunity."

The need here is for concrete manifestation of the Brown bounce and, while the poll was done prior to the result in Glenrothes this manifestation is still elusive for Labour who have to be absolutely certain that more definite signs of recovery in marginal areas, particularly in England, were visible before going to a general poll. Something that needs to appear in substance before a Brown bounce can be turned into a Brown take-off.

4. Overcoming the obstacles. SIX OF WANDS - "Victory, the time being shown here in which you enter into the city amid great fanfare, after having overcome a strong force."

This could refer to the Glenrothes result, given that the poll was taken before the results became known. It demonstrates partial success of the needs in 3; or it could alternatively suggest that a lot of minor, temporary-seeming victories could end up coalescing into a bigger swing upwards. Brown needs to be pro-active (which it is possible to be as Prime Minister) and he needs to be opportunistic and ready to spin things in his direct favour. Confidence in the various possibilities will also pay off.

5. Direction afterwards. THE DEVIL - "The need to develop a more positive self-image. Don't over-emphasise the problems you are faced with - look upon them as opportunities for growth. Maintain your faith and keep alive your spirit of hope."

Brown here needs to keep up the pressure and be ruthless and daring as well as realistic about the probabilities for success following Glenrothes. He needs to be as belligerent as possible and exert control over his party, not shrinking from legitimate use of his political power. He needs to keep calm in a crisis and make sure that he doesn't get deflected by still-mediocre poll results. He also needs to maintain the momentum the economic crisis has given him.

6. Solution. KING OF CUPS - "This card generally shows not so much a person as a situation of culmination. Thus, a certain emotional scenario has been resolved, a state of happiness is either achieved or achievable. This card portrays a man with a calm ocean behind him. The ocean represents the realm of feelings which are now becalmed."

Brown is out of danger but now much prove himself to be useful and to be able to refloat his own prospects after the success in Glenrothes (although people point out it was a safe seat, the psychological aspects of the win against all odds make people believe that it was more of an achievement than it objectively was). He has fulfilled certain requirements and is living up to his reputation as a skilful handler of the economy - and crises in general - but to be certain of election victory he has to try and develop the situation beyond "becalmed" and push the storm that threatened him a few weeks ago back the other way.

7. Outcome in the end. ACE OF WANDS - "A new enterprise being started. By looking at the surrounding cards we would have idea as to what."

Brown is being counselled here to be as aggressive as possible while still remaining within ethical guidelines (which the Devil suggests, intriguingly for a man of Brown's personal probity, he is in danger of overstepping). He is still able to take credit from the response to the credit crunch and has passed the hard exam set by the electorate in Glenrothes. He needs a series of swift coups, whether economic or political in nature, to spur the agenda onwards. A new parliamentary year is about to commence, so the initiatives of this may mean he is able to improve much more markedly than recently.

The Tories' results will follow later but I need a cup of coffee and a sandwich before going much further with this.

Just to keep things ticking over - my parents have guests tonight so things are busy elsewhere. More readings - on the new ICM poll particularly - later on, depending whether or not I am drunk at the end of the evening.

Interesting screen-grabs...

Do they know something we don't?

Nice to see the media don't always get their way.

Also, Rob is a good friend of mine, I campaigned very hard for him in 2005, but it is sad when politicians themselves have to stoop to stupid photoshop jobs to put their point across. It's not very professional to be doing this, particularly as a Shadow spokesman. Gordon Brown as Stalin.

The second-jobs-for-the-Shadow-Cabinet row rumbles on. Do they not understand that this only makes them look daft? I'm almost sympathising with Cameron here. What do they expect if/when they get into government? That they can spend the morning in the Ministry for Paperclips and, after a spot of lunch with the boys from the blue stuff they can whizz over to their "digital marketing agency" and carry on with making some serious money? It seems the world couldn't get any more ludicrous when people like William Hague (who is the only person on the front bench with previous Cabinet experience) can say that they are getting valuable business experience - particularly in this economic climate! - which will serve them well in government, since they will have "experience of real life".

Sounds like a poor excuse to me. Not many people find £61,000 a paltry sum to live on. To many people - including many Labour MPs - it's wholly adequate and it would probably give the Tory Shadows a good sight more experience of real life to have to try and subsist on that sum alone.

No-one is pretending that parliamentarians get paid a pittance or that everyone should have a trust fund, but Labour MPs didn't use these pathetic excuses back in 1995 or 1996 - they seemed to get by all right on their way into government. Blair has racked up £12m since leaving office, but at least he didn't try to do it while he was in Downing Street, otherwise I think Lord Hutton might have had a thing or two to say about that. (Mind you, I wonder how much Blair has actually done as Middle East Peace Envoy? Perhaps not as much as Special Envoy to JP Morgan, that's for sure. Thankfully he hasn't opened his own company - Sexed Up Dossiers'R'Us plc - though there is still time for that later, one hopes...it would give me some much needed material to write something funny about) What will the poor Shadow Cabinet do the morning after they win the election and they wake up to find they have taken a whopping pay cut?

Gesture politics aside, it is time that Cameron started laying down the law. The Independent reports that:

David Cameron may be forced to shelve plans to curb the outside earnings of his Shadow Cabinet after a revolt by frontbenchers who do not want to give up their lucrative jobs outside politics [...].

The Tory leader wants to reassure the public that his party's leading players would not face any conflicts of interest if they form the next government. Some of his aides worry that the Tories risk looking out of touch with ordinary voters as they feel the pinch of the economic downturn.

All very fair and above board. Members of all three previous leaders' Shadow Cabinets have had directorships, but they also managed to devote enough time to politics to keep the party afloat during its years in the wilderness.

In conclusion the Independent suggests:

Mr Cameron may return to the issue in the run-up to the election, widely expected in 2010. One aide conceded yesterday: "It is not something he will do in the near future," but added: "This is not something David has ruled out. He may want to do something nearer the election."

He may also want to release a manifesto nearer the election too, but if this is his response now then God help the Tories because he's not going to be able to lay things on the line then if he doesn't show a bit of backbone now.

Looking at the cards for this, it was tempting to spin it out quite a lot, but after the first two-thirds of the spread it was obvious what was being pointed out, so I think it is probably more interesting to limit this to 10 cards rather than draw out the agony for Foxy and Friends any longer.

S. Situation. PAGE OF SWORDS - "The Page of Swords represents someone who is adept at uncovering secrets and unravelling mysteries - a problem-solver, sleuth, and possibly even a spy. He can be trusted with secrets when given good reasons. He is a good diplomat with a keen eye for creative compromise able to act on his own initiative and only give away what is necessary to achieve a goal. His taste for secrecy can be taken too far, however."

Or his tastes for big money and the high life. The situation here is that the Shadow Cabinet is hedging its bets when looking at the next election and not entering into the 'project' with any great enthusiasm. Swords represent a detachment from emotional concerns and the Page is betraying a lack of connection with or faith in a Tory victory to satisfy the Shadow Cabinet. They are either complacent or do not believe wholeheartedly that the Tories will pull off a victory in the next election. This is even despite more goodwill from media and public opinion than was apparent in Michael Howard's day, and that even despite a 20-point poll lead Cameron could not convince David Davis to give up his outside interests suggests that there is a breakdown in confidence here which is now becoming visible.

1. External voices. IV WANDS - "It is now time for a well-dressed rest and the enjoyment of good company. Your plans are well-laid, so you can allow yourself to bask for a while as you see your ideas take shape in reality. This could be a good time to consider moving house, or formalising a romantic attachment. Enjoy this time, but don't allow complacency to creep in."

The Shadow Cabinet is projecting an air of supreme confidence - it doesn't matter what we do now, we are still going to win the next election; so let's feather our own nests while we wait. The security of their positions is such that they can afford to make spurious justifications of having their fingers deep in £200,000 pies so long as it can be said that they are getting "experience of real life" or claiming that "Osborne has a trust fund and we don't, so we want as much money as he has". This supreme confidence betrays complacency and the lack of anything strict coming from Cameron to spoil their fun. They are far too secure, but underlying the suit of Wands is just that insecurity that leads them to try and make these justifications to their leader, press and public.

2. Internal voices. THE SUN - "Good fortune, material success, energy and joy are all promised by this card as whatever you undertake is blessed. New beginnings are suggested by the children and the sunflowers craning for the sky. This is a good time for new partnerships in all spheres of life and for refreshing your spirits through simple enjoyment of the good things on offer."

The Shadow Cabinet is here portrayed as being so confident of electoral success that they are allowing themselves to use this time in other ways which are evidently bringing them "good fortune, material success, energy and joy". The Sun - the card, not the newspaper - suggests they are confident enough in the stability of the polls to give politics a rest - again, the intimation here is that they are allowing themselves to slip into complacency and be so assured of a future in the actual Cabinet that they are not entirely focussed on how to achieve that. The Sun is a good card but it underlies a good future only for their bank balances.

3. Roots of the situation. III SWORDS - "Argument and strife threaten your plans. Be patient. Separation, frustration and disillusionment all threaten, but if you hold onto your long-term goals they can still be realised - you just have to work out who your real friends are. Break-ups are always painful, but totally necessary in the long run."

The breakdown here has been two-fold. In the long run, the two previous election defeats have provoked the Shadow Cabinet into making sure they have interests and careers outside politics to soften the blow of election defeat in 2009 or 2010. In the shorter term, the situation has come to a head with Cameron trying to impose discipline on his team. In this situation, the Tories have reached a breaking point and the row has spilled out into the papers again.

4. Consequences of the situation. KNIGHT OF WANDS - "The Knight of Wands is a versatile warrior, armed and fearlessly ready for action. The card signifies departures, change, and adventures into the unknown. It's a warning to keep your eyes and ears open, because you are surrounded by challenge. But if like the Knight (or with his help), you face it with courage, flexibility or imagination, there's every reason you should triumph in the end."

This now symbolises a breakdown of general discipline, but not complete systemic failure. DC's attempts to restore order before it brings him down; the Shadow Cabinet may in the last resort be thinking of regicide and selection of one from among themselves who would allow them to continue their business interests as well as political careers. The Knight suggests that none of the protagonists here have the upper hand and that it will take more force from outside to settle this argument. Cameron is failing to impose his wishes on his Shadow Cabinet, but their intransigence threatens to bring them down alongside him.

5. Cameron's desires. IX SWORDS - "Beware tempting but false invitations. Deception and even possible violence are warned by this card, but bear in mind that adversity is the best test of character, just as a sword requires fire and hammering to get a sharp edge. In the long run, know that all adversity can be turned to the good."

DC's intentions are to ensure order is restored and the Shadow Cabinet concentrates on the job at hand (winning the election and subsequent government, if anyone is in doubt about what that is). The result may have to be heavy-handed and may cost him some friends, but his priority is now to make sure the Shadow Cabinet do not undermine his credibility or authority as a leader with a good team. The Times said once (after the 2004 conference) that Michael Howard would be a good national leader in a presidential system but was let down by a mediocre Shadow Cabinet. Cameron needs to avoid having the same thing said about him, and wishes to read the riot act on this issue.

6. Shadow Cabinet desires. VIII WANDS - "The Eight indicates sudden progress that is probably too fast for comfort, so try to slow things down a little and avoid over-hasty decisions that you might later regret. This is an exciting and well-starred time with travel, new business partnerships and long-term romance all likely - just bear in mind that life is not always this easy, and plan for these rainy days."

The Shadow Cabinet want to sample all of what life has to offer and are dilettantes at heart - they are in a rush to "feed themselves from official business" and, since this card suggests a dispersal of energy, rather than a concentration thereof, they are thus unwittingly trying to have their cake and eat it. They have not given up on election victory - but in their world it matters less to them whether the Conservatives win or lose, so long as they are provided for themselves. They should be aware that Labour have now renewed their interest in winning the election - and can live on their relatively modest ministerial salaries quite happily.

7. Outcome of the argument between Cameron and the Shadow Cabinet. VI WANDS - "You benefit from triumphant and well-earned success as careful plans and hard work bear fruit. Be magnanimous in victory, and your moment of glory will be prolonged. This is no time for remembering petty insults and injuries suffered along the way because if you forget them, so will others."

Tensions are high but the situation comes to a conclusion due to the necessity of stabilising the party's leadership in the face of a Labour revival still enjoying the "Brown bounce", particularly after Glenrothes despite attempts to derail it. The stability of the solution is questionable but there is a need for compromise here which would prevent a complete breakdown and a retrograde step for the party as a whole to protect these excessive "interests" and second jobs. No-one appears an outright winner, but hostilities begin to cease because of the need to counter Labour.

8. Public expression of the outcome. X WANDS - "Exhaustion threatens as you try to juggle the conflicting demands of work and family. Try to step back and reorganise your life in a more practical and realistic way, rather than just struggling on hopelessly against the tide of demands. Something has to give and it need not necessarily be you."

The temporary solution in 7 looks too precarious to do much good in public to keep the party from slipping back into the internal strife which dogged it under successive leaderships prior to Cameron's election in 2005. The outside interests are too lucrative to give up but the needs of the party too great to put on the back burner. Cameron is not able to impose the needed discipline or authority to show he is a good leader in general. The argument is more public and it comes at a time when the Tories need stability even more - it could end up damaging their poll lead further. An overbalance of difficulties threatens to collapse despite attempts to reach a compromise earlier on.

9. Actions on the outcome. THE TOWER - "Without warning the old order breaks down and chaos breaks loose. Upheaval, betrayal and failure all threaten to shake your self-belief. This is a common card for people facing the challenges of mid-life, although love can create similar havoc at any age, as can politics, war and business. Such revolutions always lead to clearer understanding in the long term, however."

The Party is severely destabilised by this conflict in its upper echelons and this does not look very positive for either Cameron or his team. Averting The Tower is difficult, but to bring it down in a controlled demolition is possible at this stage if agreement can be reached to protect the more vulnerable parts of the Conservative leadership. Whether this controlled breakdown will happen is another matter; with other aspects of the Tory position looking so difficult and this card now appearing in the outcome position of two separate spreads on two separate issues, there looks to be different developments conspiring against the party to bring about destruction of what is currently so finely balanced within Team Cameron.

10. Consequences of the outcome. VIII SWORDS - "Criticism, blame or possible illness frustrate your plans and require patience to overcome. Judgement is tried and tested at times like this, but it is important to remember that there is no better way to test the value of your beliefs, especially if you have the humility to adapt them to reality."

This card also means entrapment and imprisonment and it seems the Tories are locked in to a certain course of action at the moment, given decisions taken prior to this particular point in time. Opportunities have been missed over the last three years which means that although it was avoidable, it might not be now, given the character of people involved. Never say never; there could always be a rescue package to salvage what credibility Cameron's team still retains. But the destruction might have to take place now to make sure the party is able to rebound on Labour and return to a solid position of pre-eminence before any election takes place and time has indeed run out.

 

And next in the wonderful world of wildlife, here's Iain the Squirrel tucking into a bag of chocolate he stole from a florists.

His opinion on the Glenrothes by-election was rather indistinct, but probably consisted of the viewpoint that the Liberal Democrats didn't do too badly after employing him as a canvasser.

Suitably chastened from predicting a narrow SNP win, here we have got to look at the cards more carefully. I wrote this spread before I knew the result, but to me the tarot puts itself beyond manipulation by forecasting in a non-binary way - that is, by advising about the result, rather than saying "yes/no". Having the impact of the result in previous spreads as The World could mean anything positive, and because I was expecting an SNP win I read it that Labour would survive beyond what would have been a bad but not wholly unexpected result. We will now never know whether  they would have sunk lower in the polls as a result of a loss - so what will happen now that they have cleared this hurdle comfortably?

It is only a safe seat in Scotland, and was not a Tory-Labour fight, but the perceptions of the Brown bounce remain and may strengthen them even in England more than if they had lost. Intuitively the difficulties with the Opposition not being robust enough to survive a general election might not have been realised until then, and covered up by an unstable lead which vanished in the weeks before an election. The Conservatives did not lose the seat in a close race, they lost their deposit but understandably the propaganda machine is now in overdrive with Louise Bagshawe in her normal role as the Tory version of the editor of Pravda claiming it was a good result. Not many people on the thread agree with her (Satirical Moderniser is actually a UKIP troll pretending to be a Cameroon for the week). It's not unexpected that the Tories lost the seat, and that their vote may have collapsed because their votes all went to the SNP (as allegedly happened with the Liberal Democrats in Hartlepool in 2004, resulting in a poor fourth place behind UKIP).

Here is a spread designed to gauge the result of the Glenrothes result.

1. Result for Labour. III CUPS - "Great happiness resulting from a marriage or a birth. The coming to fruition of something which was conceived in love. The card of maternity, abundant fertility, comfort, solicitation, trust, harmony, felicity and the healing of ills."

This card is a relief for Labour and can show real progress and real repair to the damage done over the last year or so. It is difficult to wholly decide whether the relief can be sustained, but for now there is a moment where a surprise result has occurred and the party can now begin to really heal itself and move on.

2. Result for the Conservatives. IV SWORDS - "Peace and order established in the midst of strife through strength and the exercise of arms. Law and firm administration in troubled times. Rest and the opportunity to recuperate from the ravages of battle. A welcome retreat from the stresses of life. Can indicate necessary hospitalisation."

Again, going nowhere fast. This means there is a certain relief for the Tories too - a resting point after struggle, as if they expected a worse result. Since Labour won the by-election there is a set-back because of perception of the result as the vindication of a "Brown bounce" over the economy; whilst the Tories refuse to make hay while the sun shines they run the risk of this rest becoming complacent unconsciousness and vegetation. They are unable to make any capital on this result, but have not altogether slid just yet.

3. Brown bounce? PAGE OF CUPS - "He is a poetic youth much given to quiet reflection and meditative study. He has a fund of useful knowledge and gives his advice freely when asked. He is painstaking and gifted with good foresight."

Brown knows things may get better and the Page of Cups represent some small increase in confidence fuelled mostly by relief and vindication rather than outright jubilation. He enjoys the wisdom of knowing that his cup is half full, rather than half empty, so long as the Tories remain trapped in their comatose position in the Four of Swords. The bounce certainly does not subside and may even still be on the upswing as people warm to him again and he begins to get a better press again.

4. Cameron trend? THE TOWER - "Suffering of an individual though the forces of destiny being worked out in the world. The apparent unfairness of natural disasters which strike all, just or unjust alike."

Cameron is in a situation which is extremely dangerous for him personally and even if the Glenrothes result was expected as far as the Tory vote was concerned, this puts him on the back foot again as Brown seeks to continue the trend upwards after this surprise win. Because no man is an island, fate works through the interdependence of people working together - and this twist of fate might prove to be extremely difficult since the Tory peak is not likely now to return.

5. Will Glenrothes have any effect? VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding-up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."

Glenrothes will probably catalyse other aspects of political life which have been sluggish of late, and intensify the above two trends for Gordon Brown and David Cameron (as well as Alex Salmond, who is however far from finished as Scotland's First Minister, since in the previous spread the SNP's result - despite the actuality - was still broadly positive. Guess his totem...). This is a direct, striking result and trend and proves to accelerate the process of change in politics in general.

6. Ultimate conclusions. IX PENTACLES - "Material success, comfort, appreciation, popularity. Good sense and sound administrative ability which produces order out of chaos."

A direct coup for Labour and a directly beneficial result which serves to solidify the Brown bounce and push it upwards, though this is not the Ten of Pentacles, which would transcend the solid result into a direct comeback. Brown needs to assimilate this and push upwards again without fearing any repercussions which would probably have accompanied an SNP victory. Brown still enjoys this personal and material strength which his main opponent still seems to lack.

It must be worrying that this article could appear in the Torygraph of all places...

Instead the Prime Minister's position in his party and the country has been strengthened by the scale of the victory – both sides said the margin would be less than a thousand votes - and it was Mr Salmond who ended up with egg on his face.

In typically bombastic style, the Scottish First Minister confidently predicted victory and even boasted that he had put money on the result.

While Mr Brown's political star is in the ascendency, the huge margin of the SNP defeat is the first sign that the prolonged Nationalists' honeymoon, that began when the party took power in Holyrood last year, is finally over.

Significantly, it is also a huge blow to his dream of Scottish independence, which the SNP candidate, Peter Grant, said he tried to sell on the doorstep.

Recent opinion polls suggest that support for independence has fallen since the onset of the economic crisis, and the by-election result appears to be further evidence that voters are more worried about the money in their pockets than breaking up Britain.

Perhaps they have been reading the Communist Manifesto while bored waiting for a Conservative one.

Apologies for the short posts today but I will be back with a reading later on. We may have to reach into the twilight zone to find out why Labour won, but I think I have an idea or two about it. I think I might have committed unwitting voodoo again, the details are too embarrassing but in autumn 2006 I ripped up a begging letter from CCHQ because I was not going to pay a £20 membership fee to a party with whom I was already fairly semi-detached, and on top of that hand out extra money on the back of the promise of a Ministry for the Quality of Life or whatever neo-Orwellian idea DC had come out with. The poll in the next day's Times gave the Tories a lead of only 1%. Then in the next day's Mail gossip column, I read that the lead had been trailed as 10% and CCHQ notified - but something seemed to go wrong and the printed edition of the poll only showed a 1% margin. I am only an amateur voodoo shaman, but I rather think my ...activities last week might have had the same effect on the SNP that my activities then had on Tory polls. It doesn't seem to work for me if you do it knowlingly, that is the thing - but the concept of fate is based on the fact that although we may strive to create our own destinies, no man is an island and that nature tends to steer people in the "right" direction.

NB I am having some technical difficulties with the previous post about Glenrothes. I am trying to fix the problem but the only link that works seems to be to that Hitler X-box clip.

 

The people have spoken - and it's a resounding non-success for me and my cards. You can't win them all, but personally this is an interesting result, because it is so counter-intuitive to everything that has been written or assumed in the past few days that I am sure I got something wrong while reading. The World came out for Labour - if you remember correctly - and even then I didn't spot it. Damn, there go my chances of selling this to a national newspaper so I can keep up the rent on my nesting box.

Lindsay Roy is a Tengmalm's Owl, yesterday. Meanwhile, Morag Balfour is a magpie today.

Vulpes vulpes, meanwhile, can go back to his x-box and prepare for the Quorn Hunt to pay a visit. Or is that Alex Salmond in the field grey and glasses?

This is the conclusory part of the Prospects at the Polls series inquiring as to which party has the better chance of winning an early election given the possibility of a change of leadership in one or both parties.

CONCLUSIONS

CONSERVATIVE PARTY

1. Advice to the Party. VI WANDS - "This card signifies a moment of public achievement. It suggests a promotion, or a creative project that has been accepted for display or publication. The key point is that the achievement stimulates public acknowledgement or acclaim."

The Tories have succeeded in getting people to take notice of them and position themselves in a good position to win the next electoin. However the Six of Wands is just the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. The Tories need to go on and consolidate what they have before time runs out. "Teck", a contributor to the comments on Conservative Home, puts it very nicely:

I believe that the transformation/rebranding of the Conservative Party appears to have stalled for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, the core does not seem entirely comfortable with seizing change, being bogged down by intellectual debate and pre-occupation over any different approach however compelling, weighing endlessly against anachronistic benchmarks (ie, anything that is 'left' is not consistent with right thinking).

Secondly, there is a strange absence of conviction in the enunciation of clear future policies - there is a distinct shortage of them - and generally delayed/muted responses to hammer the opposition over patently flawed policies.

We certainly need heavyweight personalities in our parliamentary party going forward from front bench through to the back and our field of candidates in winnable seats; criticising the weakness of the opposition without beefing up ours leaves us vulnerable.

We have been promised substance yet there are few signs of it, and we have been reassured about change but what I have seen so far are at-the-edges and piecemeal ones rather than necessary, wholesome and bold ones.

2. Solution. ACE OF SWORDS - "The Ace of Swords points to strength in adversity or a situation which initially looks unpromising yet has a positive outcome. This card is usually associated with a sense of the inevitability of great change. Although this change may initially be unwelcome, it is ultimately beneficial."

The Tories need to make a thrusting, dynamic move, rather than rely on the sinking of Labour under the weight of their own mistakes. Without this move, the Conservatives could find that this card foreshadows thrusting being made at the expense of key personnel and even the Leader himself.

3. Overall outcome. KNIGHT OF CUPS - "The Knight of Cups indicates romance and a proposal of some kind. This could be a proposal of marriage or an artistic proposition. He may also represent a rival in love. However, the key point connected with the appearance of the Knight of Cups is that love is an important issue, whether it be romantic, platonic or spiritual."

The appearance of some sort of solution following the direct moves made in a1. This card appeared around the time of Davis' kamikaze resignation from both Shadow Cabinet and parliamentary seat. It also represents a new foundation for Conservative policymaking and the promotion of the manifesto in the run-up to any election. If DC cannot do this himself, someone else will be found to do it for them - there are enough people who want to do this and unlike in 2007 a challenger makes himself known in the event of DC's downfall.

LABOUR PARTY

1. Advice to the Party. IV CUPS - "The Four of Cups describes a sense of dissatisfaction on an emotional level with one's lot in life. Even with little in reality to warrant such discontent, there is nevertheless a sense of futility or depression coming from within. This card suggests a feeling of boredom and even a refusal to make an effort to improve the situation."

The Four in an advisory situation suggests that Labour need to ride out the storm and to make sure they acknowledge and allow for internal dissent. They must look at the whole picture and they must be realistic about their prospects. However, there is a brighter side to the Four, in that a solution often provides itself from unexpected quarters if the querent keeps their eyes open. So Labour need to assess their strengths and weaknesses and look for unexplored options among what they currently have on-side.

2. Solution. II WANDS - "The Two of Wands describes a situation in which there is more than just a vision - some solid work has been achieved and the project is viable. Although it suggests the early stages of a venture, there is certainly more than just an idea."

A solution does materialise from within the current Labour arrangements and the party's fortunes continue to improve. Because of the disturbances in the Tory ranks predicted by the Ace, the tentative movements can be made in a climate where Labour still appear to be the best alternative. Labour have the ability to recognise their difficulties and amend them without wholesale damage to Gordon Brown - in fact it is Brown who is able to make these pro-active moves to find a solution. A much more resourceful card, which leads to a more malleable situation than Cameron's brittle hold on his party's leadership.

3. Overall outcome. ACE OF WANDS - "The Ace of Wands is a card of inspiration and vision. It represents the creative spark that is essential in order to begin any scheme or venture. The Ace of Wands reflects a time of optimism coupled with the necessary imagination and enthusiasm to get an idea off the ground."

Labour enjoy the ability to turn the tables on the Tories because they have the policy-making initiative and the executive boldness to implement them without fear. The increase in momentum here while the Tories are making their changes means that Gordon Brown is safe for the time being. Cameron should take note that the emphasis in the Wands is that of a light, nimble touch and the emphasis in his Ace - the Swords - is that of brutal, decisive change. Thus Gordon can be flexible enough to manage his party while Cameron may find himself the victim of a putsch if he does not get on and make policy putsches himself.

This is the continuation - and final part - of the series of spreads looking at the parties' prospects for an election called between now and June 2009. Part 3 is here; this spread looks at the prospects for both parties if both parties change their leaderships.

a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.

1. Polls apparent now. IX CUPS - "The Nine of Cups is traditionally connected with love, romance, sensuality and the joy that comes from feeling in harmony with another person. There are peak times in life when everything seems perfect, even if only for a little while. Moments like this are reflected by the Nine of Cups."

The Tories are here able to feel more confident that they will be able to capitalise on Labour's turmoil while having breached "Cameroon" reluctance to express themselves clearer and louder. Confidence is the key to winning an election and changing leader here means the current timidity can be replaced with riskier but more satisfying developmenmt of the policy agenda and a return to upward mobility in the polls.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. THE STAR - "The Star signifies optimism and the promising dawn of a new and better day. After darkness there is a light; after despair there is the gift of hope which the Star promises."

The confidence expressed in the above card suggests that the Tories are changing upwards a gear while Labour may be changing down. The momentum is growing and the resistance weakening, so the party receives a fillip of genuine good feeling which could defeat Labour outright.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. II WANDS - "The Two of Wands describes a situation in which there is more than just a vision - some solid work has been achieved and the project is viable. Although it suggests only the early stages of a venture, there is certainly more than just an idea."

A beginning to a positive government with all to play for - a working majority, good prospects to turn promise into policy, and a way of growing new personalities and successive prime ministers who can build on the achievements predicted here.

b. LABOUR PROSPECTS

1. Polls apparent now. - THE EMPRESS - "The Empress suggests a period of fertility and abundance. This can operate on a number of different levels, relating to family relationships and children but also to all kinds of creative projects."

An equally fertile possibility, but the abundance and fertility are in the present, rather than the future; the outcome may depend on how this feeling on the surface is evident further below in the party heartlands and currently-held marginal seats.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. IX WANDS - "The Nine of Wands describes a struggle possibly relating to creative or artistic matters that have reached a critical moment. It requires utter dedication to succeed. Even though you may feel exhausted, there is strength in reserve."

The onus is on Labour to defend its seats against a properly rejuvenated Conservative Party, thereby transferring any initiative on the part of the party into shoring up votes rather than seeking new ones. The overwhelming positivity of the Tory card in this position (a2) translates this into a loss of confidence, and the emphasis on defence might mean Labour do not stand up to the challenge because of more confidence on the part of the Tories.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. VI SWORDS - "This card suggests a shift from strained or agitated times to something more relaxed and easy-going. This might manifest in a physical move involving a change of residence of job. Alternatively it may describe a move on an inner level when attitudes alter from anxious and apprehensive to calm and confident."

Labour move from government to opposition but not as totally beaten as they were in the "Conservative leadership change only" scenario. It is probable that they once more have to explore opposition; the leadership does not change after election defeat and they can begin to rebuild, despite the potential for Tory successes continuing beyond the first parliament. A less comprehensive defeat than in the above scenario, because the change in leadership meant that old issues were ditched and the new leader was able to salvage vital seats.

Imagine the scene with anyone you imagine, be it John McCain finding out Sarah Palin has ditched him for Barack Obama or Cameron seeing Gordon Brown getting more airtime on the BBC than he did.

 

This just in...

Hi [Fowls], you gained H$17.40 on In the wake of Russell 
Brand's resignation as a BBC Radio 2 host, will Jonathan 
Ross also resign?

You correctly predicted No

Click here for more details and breakdown:

Good luck with your future predictions!

Still searching for another question that isn't so open-ended as to be useless for a rapid-response blog like this, but this is good news all the same.

Continuing the assessment of which party would win an election held between now and June 2009 - this spread is based on Labour changing its leadership. Part 2 here.

a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.

1. Polls apparent now. V WANDS - "The Five of Wands suggests a time when creative progress is either slow or obstructed perhaps by external forces or through inner blocks and inhibitions. It might reflecr a time when financial or practical hardships can hinder headway in the realm of creativity or artistic pursuit, or when inner resources are at a low point and nothing seems to quite work out."

A change in Labour leadership would lead to the Tories having more internal difficulties in the short term because they might no longer have an edge over Brown and would be confused in their initial response to the new leader (as when Brown came into power initially in summer 2007). In 2007 they nose-dived to 10 points behind in the polls and only returned to "poll position" in October after party conference season. Many suggestions have been made for this sudden bounce (from the inheritance tax cut promise - unlikely, since it would not affect many people and is not a cornerstone of a lasting political programme on its own - and Brown's floating of a possible election - more likely but still of minor and temporary import a year on) but upon a change in Labour leadership the Tories would again dip below Labour, all other things with them being equal.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. STRENGTH - "The Strength card suggests the possibility of achieving self-awareness, personal inner strength and determination, and the courage to take on the task of self-discipline."

The precious "Brown bounce" did wear off and the Tories managed to avoid a snap change of leader after the third place result in Ealing Southall in July 2007 (my own sources suggest because there was no alternative, a situation which has changed with the departure of David Davis from the Shadow Cabinet and the recovery from a kidney illness of another potential candidate). This card came up in the same position for Labour in the first part of this spread - symbolising current dynamics within the Labour hierarchy rather than on the surface thereof. The Tories would be able to regain the initiative because of the unsettling change in Labour at the end of its third term.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. KING OF WANDS - "The King of Wands suggests a warm, fiery individual is set to enter your life, generating changes and setting the scene for something new. If this card is not representing a person, it suggests the time is right for developing these qualities within you."

This would point to a Tory win, because Labour would be too unstable to be able to fight a coherent campaign without more than a year left to the final date for a dissolution. Wands are the least stable of all the suits, so the resulting government may be difficult to sustain (and Cameron would need a quick lesson in executive authority because he does not currently inspire confidence in my cards' opinions) but at least this is a King, ruling the suit and thus at least winning an election with a good working majority. Changing minds could end up undermining Downing Street, but power would be the Tories' for at least one term.

b. LABOUR PROSPECTS

1. Polls apparent now. - KNIGHT OF PENTACLES - "The Knight of Pentacles ensures that important matters will ultimately reach a sound conclusion. The qualities of perseverance and patience can be well used and will come from within or from a person entering your life."

Labour would be more confident and more optimistic but with a Knight rather than a King in the public's perception they would depend on events being in their favour rather than making the events fit the programme, as Brown is currently able to do to a certain extent. There is a loss here of executive authority and control over government - the ultimate governing card is a King of Pentacles, so any deviation from this card shows what the government lacks in comparison - suggesting the new leader would be younger than Brown and have less Cabinet experience - most likely David Miliband.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. VI PENTACLES - "The Six of Pentacles suggests that financial and material help comes in times of genuine need, and must be offered if others need it. The sense of equilibrium symbolised by the Six works both ways - to maintain balanced energy, resources need them most. This card does not promise luxury or extravagance but suggests that true needs may be met."

Labour would have a stable underpinning but not enough momentum not to become dependent on rather than independent of other people - this would also undermine confidence enough to bring about a partial collapse of the party machinery, despite the apparent stability of this card. The Tories would have uninterrupted momentum to bring Labour to a defeat - but not a huge one. Labour would become dangerously stagnant and possibly still restless because the government would have stalled fatally. It is easier to change leaders in opposition than government.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. PAGE OF WANDS - "The Page of Wands points to the beginning of a creative idea which, if carefully nurtured, may evolve into greater inspiration. As is the case with everything in embryonic form, great care must be taken to ensure its survival."

The Page of Wands is junior to the King so Labour defeat would be certain. They would exchange their greatest current asset for someone untested in one of the greater executive offices of state - three out of five new Prime Ministers over the last thirty years, all of whom have come into office while their party has been in government, have been Chancellor of the Exchequer rather than Foreign Secretary prior to their appointment or election. It would have undermined the competency Brown is beginning to show. Labour would have to start from scratch, meaning a period in opposition, internal dissent and the process of renewal in time for the next election. One advantage may well be that the leader at the election would keep control of the party, ameliorating rather than compounding the problems faced.

Part 4 and conclusions tomorrow.

Former USSR president Mikhail Gorbachev (Ural Owl totem) believes Obama will bring perestroika to the US.

Given that his record in the Baltic States left the longest trail of blood there since Stalin, I am not sure how Obama intends to bring this to the US, but let's hope he doesn't hope to emulate Gorby, being the victim of a coup while on holiday and six months later dismantling the US into "constituent republics" which then dissolve into low-level ethnic violence with crippled economies, hyperinflation and banks collapsing left, right and centre. Gordon Brown could advise him on that better perhaps than Obama can.

If I were him I would stay well out of it and concentrate on advertising Pizza Hut - as he did a number of years ago - instead.

 

For those looking for my response to Barack Obama's election as the 44th President of the USA, please see here.

Carrying on from Part 1 - but this time with the Conservatives changing their leadership between now and June 2009.

a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.

1. Polls apparent now. QUEEN OF SWORDS - "The Queen of Swords may suggest despondency or sorrow, often due to unrealistic expectations. She seeks a perfect world, so when she discovers clay feet she finds it more disappointing than most. You may need to examine your dreams and ideals to make sure they are realistic."

Changing leadership now would mean a more rational and realistic outlook from the Conservative Party and although this suggests a change would not be on the cards - they have too much, supposedly, to lose - it may also suggest Tories think that Cameron could not, as he currently stands, actually win an election. The Queen represents disillusionment now and may be a more realistic response to cards in other spreads which seem to show Team Cameron not having a very much longer shelf-life.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. KING OF SWORDS - "The King of Swords suggests it is time to start developing your mental skills and intellectual prowess in new ways. It can also mean that a figure of authority, perhaps connected with the legal profession, may enter your life."

As with Labour in Part 1, this suggests the Tories would be the ones in the know here and that they understand the potential that a poll would go decisively in their favour because of an ability to know that their previous strategy under Cameron had failed and know how to put it right. The King represents the new leadership having the initiative and restructuring Tory plans to expand their machine and put more money where their collective mouths are - that is, to make sure any lead solidified under constant battering in the Commons and in the country where it would hurt Labour most. The poll lead would be more solid and more definite because they would be capitalising on it, whereas Team Cameron has built its house "on the sandy land", as in the popular song.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. X SWORDS REVERSED - "This card heralds a shift of perception and consciousness. It suggests a moment of catharsis, a death/rebirth situation. Something needs to die in order to regrow."

I am always eager to keep cards upright when I spread them, because dealing with cards in a reversed aspect can be tricky when the position is also ill-dignified (for example, when it refers to an obstacle or problem, the Star reversed could suggest hopes being raised or hopes being doubly dashed, much like the phrase "I don't know nothing" being difficult to parse logically, if not communicatively). However, when they fall out of the pack reversed of their own accord, they are to be treated as such because that's Fate for you. Thus this represents not the end of the line for the Tories - but the end of the line for their adversaries. A change now would mean that Labour would be wiped out on the scale of a 1997 - reversed and that this moment in political history could go down as far into history as 1945 did as another watershed moment. At least a 100+ majority and more - IF the Tories change their leadership to take advantage of what Team Cameron is currently ignoring.

b. LABOUR PROSPECTS

1. Polls apparent now. - PAGE OF CUPS - "When this card appears it hints at changes in the emotional life. On a literal level it can bring news of the birth of a child, or it could symbolise the birth of new feelings."

Labour here are still able to prepare solutions to a change in Tory leadership, and carry forward workable solutions - after all, they are in executive authority. The insistence and depth of the Page of Cups still combines to bolster Labour's hopes enough for a poll to be a viable option. I have a feeling that the articulation of a concrete Tory plan would offer an opportunity to try and demonstrate that a left-wing programme could be workable instead. This may also explain the ambivalence of the corresponding Tory card above (a1).

2. Underlying stability of campaign. IV CUPS - "The Four of Cups describes a sense of dissatisfaction on an emotional level with one's lot in life. Even with little in reality to warrant such discontent, there is nevertheless a sense of futility or depression coming from within. This card suggests a feeling of boredom and even a refusal to make an effort to improve the situation."

The leadership change in the Conservative Party has damaged the underlying confidence of Labour and has also proved the resilience of the platform on which the Tories fought the 2005 election. This psychological aspect means that Labour, even after calling a poll based on the hopes in b1, because they believed they had the Tories dancing to their tune but the more concrete articulation of policies which have not differed that much since 2005 - thanks in part to Cam's loyalty to his own manifesto, which he co-wrote for Michael Howard, despite his attempts to "detoxify" the brand - has paid dividends for the Tories in the longer term. SImply put, the Tories are outclassing Labour where it matters - on the streets - and have wounded them mortally.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. THE EMPRESS - "The Empress suggests a period of fertility and abundance. This can operate on a number of different levels, relating to family relationships and children but also to all kinds of creative projects."

This card is ill-dignified because of the effect of the Four of Cups above and the intensification and reflection of the Ten of Swords in the corresponding Tory position (a3). Labour find their base but the inertia of The Empress and the negativity of surrounding cards for Labour suggests that they are caught like a rabbit in the headlights here, a sitting target. The passive nature of this card suggests that the party stagnates and gives up, failing to make a comprehensive counter-challenge to the Conservatives under new management. As the reversed Ten suggests wipeout, this is the passivity and apathy that allows it and allows British politics to move into its next cycle and/or era.

Part 3 either later or tomorrow depending on my energy levels - trying to upload some more eBay auctions to part-fund my trip to the Baltics at the end of the month so please take a look here.

WELL DONE BARACK OBAMA!

I said I would "vote" for McCain, but what a result for the cards and my sixth sense!

I always hoped it would be Hillary but I kind of knew it would be Obama. After McCain was selected and Hillary didn't look good any more I decided I would "vote" Republican but, like when I went up the Twin Towers in 1998 and the only thing I felt was down, down, down, this year the word in my mind has been Barack, Barack, Barack.

Well done, Barack. Now you've got to walk the walk, after talking the talk. Difficult, because that Death card just won't go away, but with all the best will in the world, I do hope you do well, because I would hate people to be disappointed. Maybe governments should come with 90-day money back guarantees if not completely satisfied. It might have got rid of Tony Blair a lot sooner, given some electoral data I'm working on in the real world. Perhaps that sums up the basis of democracy for us - just look at Jimmy Carter. You can't force people to vote for you - just ask the Fabians. Part of the problem with the last two elections in America are that people couldn't accept that they had been fairly beaten, by the constitution if nothing else. I remember in 2000 enjoying giggling over "stupid Americans in Florida" over the hanging-chads issue. Then suddenly it was revealed that the disputed votes came from predominantly African-American areas. Suddenly it got extremely serious, as if it was no longer right to giggle at proceedings because it became a travesty of justice had been committed with racial motives. Perhaps this will lay people's minds to rest once and for all - the Republicans were not out to steal this one, they didn't suddenly cancel the election (like I heard said on forums a year or so ago) and they conceded defeat and are about to leave office.

As I said on my first post, democracy is a fact of life. Saying the electorate is stupid or insane just because they don't vote the way you do is symptomatic of both left and right and usually covers up a profoundly anti-democratic streak in all who claim that. I am not particularly happy at this result, I am a conservative and a Conservative who is even sceptical of her own leadership's ability to talk the talk, let alone walk the walk. But I am certainly not about to claim it was rigged, nor am I going through the results in Ohio looking for clues. If there are any issues out there they will come to light soon enough. But I think the Democrats now have reasons to put 2000 well behind them and move on.

Next Left has however revealed how idiotic the Tories have been on this one. More pressing readings loom, but had I time I would examine Louise Bagshawe's claims fully. It is good news for the Tories only so much as they can project themselves as the party of change. Since that change means keeping to Labour's spending plans - or maybe not - I don't know what their slogan will be...

"Yes we can't"?

I'll get the posters made up now, shall I, Cambo?

By the way, Barack is a raccoon-totem person, and thus shares some traits (though not all) with our Mr Foxy Cameron. Raccoons, however, are unlike foxes in that they are less for show and more intelligent where it matters - in terms of knowing what is going on rather than just living the high-life - so I still suspect Cameron will not get such a landslide next time, even though he was anxious at the launch of Americaintheworld to link himself to Obama, he still tried to have it both ways and publicly support McCain at conference this year, before it was obvious that Sarah Palin was not as hot as she would have been had she kept her mouth shut. Raccoons are also more down-to-earth than foxes, and although they are lightweight as politicians, they do actually tend to be better at listening to people and don't tend to take so many holidays on multi-millionaire's yachts.

I hope no-one here also thinks I am being racist. Obama may be a raccoon, but other prominent black politicians in this country and in the US have had similar totems to white politicians. Jesse Jackson is a beaver (same as Sarah Palin); Martin Luther-King was a buffalo, as are the Clintons and as was JFK. Spirits who reincarnate tend to take different nationalities and ethnicities over time; Owlperson informs me I was a German soldier last time round, who emigrated to the US after the war and died just before Nixon left office. He also tells me I am a natural conservative, having voted Republican at all elections that I was eligible to vote for.

Perhaps McCain should have chosen Condoleeza Rice (a bat spirit - as is Tony Benn) as his VP, as Owlperson says if he was still alive he would like to give her one. He is pleased that barred owl spirit Joe Biden is now VP-elect, given that he says owls make very good politicians (why else would they form parliaments in the wild?). Never mind, there is always 2012.

This idea came from William Rees-Mogg's article in the Times yesterday wondering why Labour seemed happy to call a snap election if they won Glenrothes and arguing the current state of the polls might make them think twice even if they hold the Scottish seat.

My feeling is that Labour do have reasons to be cheerful. I remember a lot of effort last parliament from the Tories to put out a lot of policies which were geared towards the interests of the majority of people - talking about the "right to choose" in healthcare and education, for example, or childcare/maternity payments to assist mothers-to-be, or the standard output on immigration and school discipline - but can't see much of the same activity happening now, for example, even when the Tories had the initiative and the agenda-setting powers over the spring and summer. With the lead currently at roughly 8 or 9 points (the Independent's poll of polls today puts the lead at 11 points, but includes the 12-point Guardian lead done just prior to Yachtgate, which is unrepresentative because it was published before Osborne's fracas with Mandelson, Rothschild and Deripaska - "who's been schmoozing on MY yacht?!") one would think that Brown would not cut and run until he really had to, i.e. June 2010 (Parliament has to be dissolved by May 2010, but that means a three week election campaign, so the last possible polling date is in June that year).

However discussions with colleagues during the 2005 election suggested to me that poll leads actually narrow during the campaign and leads projected in polls, particularly in mid-term, are always subject to change at an election as people make up their minds based on competing platforms. It is also that election which suggests the Tories want to leave it as late as possible to reveal their manifesto to prevent Labour using their executive mandate to implement large slices of it before polling day, in order to neutralise any popular policies coming out of CCHQ. But as Matthew d'Ancona suggested too, that although between the 2004 conference and 2005 election lay seven months of hard campaigning time (four of them which I took off work to participate on that campaign), the Tories could not expect to beat Labour in 28 weeks. The Tories currently have no concrete manifesto, no over-arching programme, have had to reorientate their plans away from the vague "sharing the proceeds of growth" ideals they had adopted, and recently abandoned the plans to keep spending at Labour levels for two years after the changeover (a move made about two weeks before conference), probably meaning they now need to rethink tax/spend plans or make them up as they go along after riding into government on a crest of a wave of disillusionment and apathetic anti-Brown public energy.

Michael Howard meanwhile had a well-thought out and well costed strategy, a clear campaigning message and other policies which moved the Tories away from traditional battlegrounds (Europe and immigration) to talking about health, education, social security provision and so on. He got me, a long-time Labour supporter born of Liberal (Democrat) parents, into the Tory party, a decision which took me six months and got me nothing but grief from my parents and ex-boyfriend. Now I would still vote Tory, but see no reason to campaign so vigorously for a leadership which cannot even make up its mind what it would do about vague spending plans, let alone come up with punchy, interesting and relevant ideas to fit in around macroeconomic projections.

At what point does this caution become a liability? Will the Tories currently win an election or would they have to have a change of personnel at the top to actually overcome this dangerous inertia and stop people going back to the government because of policies that are increasingly looking like they will be made up on the back of a beer-mat two or three days before the polls close? Meanwhile, will Labour win with Brown in charge, or will they too have to start afresh?

Because this is a question with four possible scenarios, I have split it down into four different posts, all of which I hope to have published by the time the Glenrothes result comes in on Thursday night.

This particular post is to do with NO CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP FOR EITHER PARTY - that is, David Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party and Gordon Brown as leader of the Labour Party/Prime Minister.

a. CONSERVATIVE PROSPECTS.

1. Polls apparent now. ACE OF PENTACLES - "The Ace in the earthy suit of Pentacles represents potential for financial propositions or business ventures. It can signify lump sums suddenly being made available, either through shrewd investment or generous gifts."

The Tories are banking on a solid lead being maintained and carrying this through a three-week campaign without loss. This is why some commentators assume the Labour Party are deluding themselves on the winnability of any election between now and next summer, let alone 2010, given the bleak economic prospects and the probability people will blame this on Brown.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. II WANDS - "The Two of Wands describes a situation in which there is more than just a vision - some solid work has been achieved and the project is viable. Although it suggests only the early stages of a venture, there is certainly more than just an idea."

There may be viability in Tory commentators' assumptions that by going to the polls now Labour can avoid a complete wipeout and maintain a more dignified oppositional approach rather than let the Tories win a 1997-style landslide. However since Wands are the least stable of the suits (as opposed to the firmer Pentacles) there is a danger that by pressing hard for an election now - as the Tories did last time one was proposed in September/October 2007 - without doing more work on policy they risk losing the apparent solidity of the poll lead and seeing it evaporate. Without another conference to put the skeleton of a proper manifesto out, they cannot make enough noise to capitalise on the current 8-9% lead.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. KNIGHT OF SWORDS - "The Knight of Swords represents a sudden change. Although this may be disruptive, it is necessary as the current situation may be getting stagnant."

The Tories would be rash to rely solely on mid-term polls and push for an election now rather than spending more time working on policy and spinning the parliament out as long as possible - the last two changes in government have both come only at a time when the government was forced to call an election rather than when it could freely choose the election date. Despite people disgruntled with Labour or Brown calling for an election to remove him from office, any election now would only disrupt Tory preparations and allow Labour to catch up, surpass and win a 1992-style victory against the odds.

b. LABOUR PROSPECTS

1. Polls apparent now. - KING OF SWORDS - "The King of Swords suggests it is time to start developing your mental skills and intellectual prowess in new ways. It can also mean that a figure of authority, perhaps connected with the legal profession, may enter your life."

The devil is in the detail here for Labour as they are able to see things - whether in private polling or other similar research or psephological studies - that journalists discussing poll ratings cannot. Brown would need to be certain that he could pull off a "1992" scenario before going to the polls, but the precedents for an election during a recession are nonetheless fairly encouraging for the governing party.

2. Underlying stability of campaign. STRENGTH - "The Strength card suggests the possibility of achieving self-awareness, personal inner strength and determination, and the courage to take on the task of self-discipline."

Strength to me suggests that Labour is much more controlled and controlling, meaning that their certainty is greater than the Tories' that the poll ratings would in fact narrow and the gap probably close and/or open up in the other direction. The Tories cannot here match Labour's policies despite the recession Britain is entering. Moreover Labour can also be assured that in its current form the Tories are not seeking to capitalise on Labour's discomfort in Scotland or its position in Wales, and are not developing parliamentary bases outside England from which to launch more MPs onto a Westminster career. Without these areas, they would not be able to break Labour's grip, however tenuous, on government. So Labour have more reasons to go to the country than to hang back until forced to.

3. Results of any election between now and June 2009. PAGE OF CUPS - "When this card appears it hints at changes in the emotional life. On a literal level it can bring news of the birth of a child, or it could symbolise the birth of new feelings."

Labour would not by any stretch of the imagination win another landslide, but if a poll was called within the next eight months they would make a tentative recovery and provide solutions to challenges faced by the country, enough to erode Tory confidence and belligerence. The possibility of government for the Tories would have to wait until 2013-14. Labour could govern adequately on a small majority and the Tories would have little new responses beyond the failure of the Cameron leadership. Thus Labour are actually right to be hopeful of fully reversing the trend visible over the previous year because of Tory inertia.

All other things being equal, of course.

This post should have been made yesterday, but I was too knackered last night to upload it. The quote and the article in question are here

It occurs to me after reading the latest posts on Conservative Home that we are not entirely being fair to poor old Dave the Fokssss (spelling (c) the Basil Brush Show) and are behaving in the way a pack of hounds may do if they picked up his scent in the fields of Witney. This blog is biased against him, just like the "Brown Broadcasting Corporation" habitually picks on the Tories and should therefore have their pocket money stopped - whereas, of course, most of the commercial press are unbiased in saying Gordon should have a snap election that he can win now, saying it out of their own financial interests of course.

I can't reiterate my opposition to the license fee often enough, but the Tories are mistaking general grumbling about the license fee for full-on riots such as the poll tax protests if they think it is the hottest electoral issue this side of a recession. You've got a lot of work to do on policy, Dave, before you can get the bias against you stopped, I suggest you do it now while people are still listening, because if the cards are right then you are not going to see the next election as leader, even if it is called before Christmas. And I'm not saying this as someone funded or employed by the government - I WISH.

However, let's see later on if Labour are, in William Rees-Mogg's opinion, celebrating too early. For the moment, I have Foxy Dave's latest spread before me, so let's have a look.

P.S. at the end of the month I am off on a "fact-finding" tour of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia courtesy of my ever-generous grandmother. The fact-finding in question is a taste-test of all the zeppelins in Vilnius, which I haven't done since they entered the EU four-and-a-half years ago. The question is, do EU zeppelins taste better than non-EU zeppelins? Can this be assumed to be a measure of how much Eastern European dumplings have improved since accession? And will I avoid hospitalisation in Latvia this time? (DO NOT end up getting off with people in Vilnius bus station and then drinking Tallinn tap-water, because the porridge in Riga hospital is not very nice, too little salt and too much butter.) I will be blogging throughout, anything to give poor Dave a rest and give the hounds a drag hunt instead.

Cards are the Renaissance Tarot and the Julia Sharman-Burke exercise book "Tarot for Beginners".

Should Dave have distanced himself from redistribution of the license fee to other commercial broadcasters?

1. Cameron's current position. THE HIEROPHANT - "The Hierophant signifies the search for inner meaning and spiritual awareness. He stands for guidance on spiritual or emotional matters."

Cameron is trying to temper earlier radicalism with more realistic policies because he evidently finds himself in a situation where official policy is more extreme than he now feels is appropriate - oddly enough, as the debate grows more and more shrill over on Conservative Home, the Tories grow more and more lukewarm over reform. He has suddenly woken up to impracticalities in the scheme they originally proposed and now feels it is more appropriate to withdraw from plans which no longer give apparent value for money. He hopes to balance radicalism with pragmatism as the election approaches. An interesting and no doubt carefully considered move.

2. Defence of his moves. JUDGEMENT - "Judgement represents a time for personal evaluation and learning lessons gained through experience. It is a time to reap the rewards, or otherwise, for past efforts."

Moving on from the previous ideas, Cameron is - internally - trying to refocus attention on himself and his party and make the effort to change direction in full view. Given erosion of poll support and lukewarm backing for radical proposals, Cameron is probably trying to tone down the scale of policies based on new economic realities. Judgement suggests Cam has been put under pressure from somewhere to tone down his plans for the BBC because of other considerations, so judgement has evidently been passed by people behind the scenes who are concerned about the party's recent performance and the need for less radicalism and a more pragmatic stance.

3. Hidden fears. X CUPS (ill-dignified) - "The Ten of Cups reflects a state of contentment that has a sense of permanence. It is connected with a capacity to love, a generous spirit and the ability to give freely without counting the cost. This card also suggests a sense of gratitude for love given and received."

As an ill-dignified card the meaning of the card is reversed - so Cameron has something to fear by this policy and has thus backtracked from it, while still trying to highlight bias in the Sun article. Here the danger is lack of acceptance of this state and lack of gratitude - there isn't much scope for Cameron to change his mind at this stage but something is evidently problematic in the background to this. Either Cam thought he was moving too fast and needed to reassure people who want a more pragmatic approach, or the policy was rejected by those trying to sell the Conservative platform to voters outside the Westminster hothouse who care more about media opinion than more substantial policy. The policy is seen as too fancy to appeal to focus groups suddenly worried more about their bank accounts, savings and mortgages than more esoteric concerns.

4. Motivations in the first place. QUEEN OF WANDS - "The Queen of Wands suggests that a person who possessed her qualities of warmth, imagination and joie de vivre may enter your life, or that you are in need of developing such attributes."

The motivations for Cam to renege on this deal may have been a need to demonstrate a responsive, active role in policymaking given the memo leaked on Sunday regarding a need to buck up the party's profile and recycle old policies in the case where no new ones yet exist. (That this was followed so soon with a "repeat" of Andrew Lansley's idea to shorten the time between a new drug coming out and its availability on the NHS is proof that this policy has been put very quickly into effect despite the leak of the memo.) He needs to show the party thinking on its feet and participating in a policy auction with Labour, who have more executive power at their fingertips. There is a fear of appearing fossilised and unresponsive to the change in atmosphere. The Queen of Wands responds and reacts rather than dictates, so it may be a diminution of the leadership's power to make the headlines rather than an acceleration of policy publication.

5. What remains now of the policy? X PENTACLES - (ill-dignified) - "The Ten, number of completion, comes to its natural conclusion in the earthy suit of Pentacles [traditionally regarded as the "last" card in the tarot set]. There is a sense of permanence achieved partly through effort and partly through good fortune. In a reading, the Ten of Pentacles indicates a materially settled way of life which may include property sale or purchase. It can also refer to traditional values being established."

In this aspect - what remains - this is ill-dignified, and can be interpreted as the erosion of concrete policy because of fears or dithering. The issue of restructuring the funding of the BBC is salient but a minor issue compared to the general needs of the rest of the electorate (aside from a vocal, comfortable minority who can afford to focus on this). The small changes to this policy will not matter much in the long run but it is a waste of the agenda and may harm Cameron's reputation as a potential PM able to put things into operation in an executive capacity.

6. Immediate future. IV PENTACLES - "Within a reading the Four of Pentacles suggests a fear of loss, which may in fact have the effect of inhibiting gain. On one level it may refer to material possessions, while on another level it suggests that the way money is handled may link with emotional dealings. This card, therefore, can represent a tendency to be 'tight' with money or emotions. Traditionally it is known as the card of the miser."

The inhibitions belie any positive effect of reassessing the role of the license fee and the BBC. The caution and partial U-turn suggest a risk-averse climate which could alienate voters who do care about the license fee, while concentrating too much on this issue will alienate those who want the Conservatives to cover more pressing issues - health, education, social security - in bigger, bolder terms than they have done recently (is the length of time new drugs take to filter through to NHS prescriptions really a hot health-care issue? Nice work, Andrew, incidentally, but hardly a show-stopper). The Tories need to gamble with harder-hitting policies (where are their policies on childcare and maternity benefit like Michael Howard tried to talk about at this point in 2004?), answers to Labour (tax-cuts or Keynesianism? If they don't put out anything significant, will we have to swallow Keynesianism by default after years where monetarism has worked to modernise the economy?), innovation on the economy (such as Margaret Thatcher's new direction this time last cycle) - and stop being so shy about stating them.

7. Long term future. ACE OF SWORDS - "The Ace of Swords points to strength in adversity or a situation which initially looks unpromising yet has a positive outcome. This card is usually associated with a sense of the inevitability of great change. Although this change may initially be unwelcome, it is ultimately beneficial."

Something happens to break the deadlock and release some sort of radical rethink on the license fee and funding, but it seems to be a more drastic solution - and with other spreads taken into account probably decidedly unwelcome to the leadership - to this particular issue than the Tories necessarily want or can currently afford. The price of not risking coherent or consistent output is that, in the words of the popular internet meme, "in Soviet Conservative Party, Party leads YOU!"

Just made a prediction on this Question...

 

As usual I pulled cards:

DAVID CAMERON - IX CUPS - Good, solid lead, best chances of the names listed.
DAVID MILIBAND - THE CHARIOT - Insurgent candidate but probably no longer in the running due to his premature disloyalty over the summer.
NICK CLEGG - THE LOVERS - Slow and steady might win the race but not rushing anywhere.

However, the interesting thing was this result:
OTHER - THE EMPEROR - The supreme leadership card in the pack, and the best matched to positions of ultimate success.

"Other" also seems to have gone up in price since the beginning of October, perhaps suggesting the Tories might be considering another regicide or two before the election because of the Cameron bubble appearing to have burst.

So who is this mystery other? The Tarot never lies, not in this situation...

Names to me by January 1.

The conversation over bias in the BBC rumbles on. Bruce Anderson yesterday let the cat out of the bag that the Tories' quick-fire policy on the BBC was because of general bias, not specifically a response to the Brand/Ross saga. Today Cameron writes in the Sun:

"But, I can hear the cry, what about the left-wing bias?

My answer is: yes, the BBC does have what even Andrew Marr called an “innate liberal bias”, principally because it does not have to behave like a commercial organisation and make its money from scratch every year.

That tends to make the BBC instinctively pro-Big State, distinctly iffy about the free market and sometimes dismissive of a conservative viewpoint.

I’ll never forget, some years ago, sitting next to a BBC presenter at a function and being told it was just about all right to have Conservative politicians on the radio, but “there weren’t really any you would want to see socially”.

And ironically that leads me to another reason not to lay into the BBC. I need it and our democracy needs it.

With ITV doing less and less politics, and with newspaper readership in decline, the importance of the BBC in general — and the big audience evening news programmes in particular — for political parties trying to get their message across cannot be overstated.

But even I, a fan of the BBC, think that it’s time for change. The telltale signs are there for all to see."

 

Are there really that many people out there who complain about pro-Tory bias? Who have the time to discuss this? OK, there's us at Conservative Home, but seriously, I'm glad Cameron is actually reading Tory Home these days, but perhaps he is reading it too much if he thinks Sun readers are seriously interested in the Conservatives getting the push from TV. If there are any telltale signs it is that he can't make his mind up what his own party should be putting out:

"Tory leader David Cameron today distanced himself from his party's previously stated policy of top-slicing the BBC's licence fee to help fund the corporation's public service broadcasting rivals.

Cameron said he was "sceptical" of the proposal to use some of the corporation's licence fee to help fund Channel 4's £150m funding gap.

The Conservatives have previously endorsed the proposal, under which other broadcasters would be entitled to apply for BBC licence fee funds."

 

Further to this I will be asking two questions today - one, whether the Conservatives are not deluding themselves about bias, and two, what Cameron is up to trying to weasel out of previously stated policy and what it can augur in the short, medium and long term.

1. Conservatives' perception. THE LOVERS - "A time of choice, the outcome of which is of crucial importance. Reliance on intuition rather than intellect is advised, on inspiration rather than reason. This card can indicate a flash of insight that resolves an apparently insoluble problem. Also a moral choice which depends on maturity and integrity."

Cameron is relying on his own feelings in this debate about what is important to him rather than making a dispassionate and professional assessment of the actual facts. He is relying on an emotional response and to stoke the fears that people may have of Labour control over the BBC, rather than make a more rational or even radical intervention. He is going on the hunch that what matters to his supporters on Conservative Home matters to the general public.

2. BBC perception. ACE OF PENTACLES - "Security, firm foundations, wealth, possessions, appreciation of the good things of life, the approach to the Spirit through the things of Earth. Stoicism, the ability to endure adversity with steadfastness."

The BBC is not so much biased in any one direction as controlled directly by the government and unwilling to be undermined by any one party. The financial control the government has partly accounts for accusations, and the Ace suggests there is some substance in the accusations (particularly as it was one deliberately obvious comment about no Sunday newspapers supporting the Conservative Party the weekend before the last election - when I could count three in front of me at least - that stopped me watching BBC News output in the first place). This is outweighed, however, by the more rational approach from the BBC and the unwillingness here to be manipulated - stoic in the face of provocation. It also may refer to there being some substance in the coverage of Yachtgate, rendering most of the Tory complaints at least as biased as the corporation they are accusing.

3. Conservatives' orientations. III SWORDS - "Necessary strife and conflict. Destruction of that which is obsolete in order to clear the groun for what will come after. Disruption, upheaval, separation and discord, but all with a positive end in view - the establishment of something better."

The Tories here want to destroy and rebuild the current status quo, which raises fears that if they did, would they themselves not be accused of bias? Commercial newspapers all have a bias and if the Conservatives want to release the BBC into the same arena they might find it coming back to haunt them if their popularity takes a nose-dive - as it has recently. If they have a problem with coverage of late, should they not be avoiding the yachts of billionaire Russians who make Sir Royston Merchant of Drop The Dead Donkey look genial and benign? As much as I've heard biased commentary on the BBC, and no longer particularly trust them (or any other news outlet), neither do I trust any one party to rectify the situation by approaching it in a destructive manner. This card may therefore be the consequences of any attempt to interfere.

4. BBC orientations. X SWORDS - "Desolation, disruption and ruin - generally referring to a group or community rather than an individual. But cause for hope is suggested here. This card represents the nadir - the lowest point in this cycle of fortune. From now on things can only get better. The worst has already been experienced."

The BBC is matching the Tories - it is dangerous for one paty to threaten them because the bias could get worse and rebound on the Tories by more thorough - and legitimate - scrutiny of the party. The BBC cannot be expected to stop investigating one party just because its supporters and leaders find it uncomfortable not to be on the front foot any more. It can be stopped, but only if the Tories don't look as if they are rattled by scrutiny of their personnel. The Ten of Swords represents a more destructive force than the Three, because the BBC has more executive power than the Conservatives currently do and can make more decisive moves.

5. Meeting point/junction. DEATH - "An unexpected major change in circumstances which is nevertheless the natural outcome of a prevailing situation. Destruction which is a blessing in disguise as it clears the way for something better. The removal from one's life of that which is outdated or superfluous in order that one might more forward into the future unhindered."

The Conservatives and the BBC are on a deadly collision course and it is believeable to say that since the party has no executive authority to implement their proposals or vent their spleen, the Party may come off worse in this encounter. The BBC would not be directly influenced but the Tories' naked hostility because of perceived bias suggests their political immaturity will end up casting them quite a considerable amount of credibility and authority with more neutral commentators, and it might introduce unconscious bias into the BBC's news studios. The Tories have been foolish to call the corporation into account at such a vulnerable time when the real source of the Yachtgate story was the Murdoch-owned Times. The Tories will live to regret this.

6. Outcome for the BBC. VI SWORDS - "The solving of immediate problems, a moving away from imminent danger. Does not suggest complete success which absolves the need for further struggle, but indicates that some major obstacle has been overcome and progress can be resumed. May indicate travel away from trouble to more harmonious circumstances and surroundings."

The BBC has taken steps to sack the latest offenders and put its staff salaries under review. There is little more it can - or indeed should - do to assuage Conservative fears, given they are probably not representative of majority opinion; even from people who resent the large sums of money paid to presenters such as Ross and who oppose the license fee (particularly as it is now classified as a tax), it would be foolish to try and claim special treatment for Tory spokespeople who cannot otherwise get exposure. The BBC has made changes and has moved on.

7. Outcome for the Conservatives. II CUPS - "Dissent, separation, divorce, deceit or unfaithfulness in a personal relationship. The throwing away of a valuable gift, the betrayal of trust. Also jealousy, vindictiveness, irresponsible revealing of the affairs of another."

Because of the proximity of Death and several Swords cards the Two of Cups becomes ill-digified by its surroundings and thus dangerous for the Tories. This pulls the outcome down for the Tories and begins a period of naked vindictiveness which will ultimately backfire. If the Tories do not stand back from sectional interests and try to present themselves as reasonable, rational and responsible rather than hasty and aggressive.

EDIT - I will post the next spread tomorrow as I am tireder than I thought I might be after cooking dinner.

The Fabian Society blog Next Left is usually turgid. The Fabian Society is on the earnest left but also after sitting through one too many Fabian conferences during my time in the Labour Party I think I must have joined the Conservative Party initially out of boredom rather than anything else (and because I ended up sabotaging Labour campaigning either by going AWOL during a street stall to buy the Spectator or dumping the leaflets in the nearest bin and going Alsatian-scaring instead). Anyway, the last time the Fabians did me any favours - at the Adam Smith Institute - I ended up pulling Michael Howard, so perhaps I have my Tory party career to thank them for.

However it seems to be difficult to leave a comment as an unregistered user on Next Left - it shouldn't be so difficult to correct the odd howler in their sports pages. I can forgive them anything, but being so out of touch that they don't know Chris Hoy's name is worthy of a whole post in their honour.

This isn't going to be a spread as such, although there is no Hubdub button on it I want to try and see whether there is any scope for a General Election, either this autumn or next summer. All other things are equal, of course (assuming no changes of leadership on the Tory or Labour benches), but will Gordon try and cut the Tories off at the pass while they don't have another actual conference until autumn 2009?

I've drawn eight cards, for the next eight months (starting in January, as realistically there is no chance for one before Christmas - they would need to call it by the third week in November to squeeze it in, and I don't put it past Brown to want more time to think about it). These are Oracle Tarot cards, as they have keywords as well as long explanations and my infected finger is about twice the size it was yesterday before the Portillo spread, so just quickie descriptions and commentary.

This is assuming Brown as PM and Cameron as Leader of the Opposition. Remember, Brown could call a poll tomorrow but it wouldn't be held for three weeks. This gives time for poll ratings to fluctuate too, so a poll today does not indicate what the figures would be after a three-week campaign.

JANUARY - 2 CUPS - Loving union, teamwork.

Chances slim. Gordon will be wanting to consolidate and develop his agenda rather than cut and run.

FEBRUARY - TEMPERANCE - Balance, harmony.

Gordon has begun to balance the books and although still slightly wobbly, he is beginning to get going on something major.

MARCH - 7 SWORDS - Ego, internal politics.

Trickier time with things finely balanced. Gordon is beginning to overcome internal issues in the Labour Party - and squeeze his way past any other problems.

APRIL - THE LOVERS - Soul mate, decisions.

An auspicious time with most of the previous problems overcome. The most likely time for a snap poll to be called.

MAY - 10 SWORDS - Healing, second chance.

A positive spin on a card which is usually negative. Second chance doesn't bode well but looks like this is the most likely time for an election despite the European elections due a month later.

JUNE - 8 WANDS - Swift decisions.

A quick fix to a long-standing problem is what I'm getting in this context. If this is after an election it looks like Gordon might do a drastic reshuffle or re-arrangement of the confusing cabinet constellation of ministries. The card is talking here of movement rather than lasting solidity, so it may well be the aftermath of an election which sees his majority cut but not by enough to force him out. He may need to move quickly to shore up votes in the Euro-elections.

JULY - THE TOWER - Discovery, change, adjustments.

Again, longer-lasting and more momentous events on the horizon; he will be governing with a reduced majority but the Tories are likely to be looking for another leader (could they find it with several prominent possibilities leaving Parliament at the next election? Is Ken Clarke finally going to get his turn?) so he might find it easy again to adjust things to his own advantage.

AUGUST - 10 CUPS - Blessed love life

There is a sense of completion and relief here, and the possibility for sharing the wealth after a long, hard but rewarding
struggle.

------

All in all it doesn't look too good from my perspective as a Tory supporter.

Personally I don't want another Labour government because of the damage it would do to the Conservative Party, who have always had continuity in the leadership between one government and the next - part of the reason why Michael Howard got my active support in 2005 because he was the last plausible link with the 1979-97 period. If they fail this time, they will not only be heading for a similar period in the wilderness that Labour had during the Thatcher/Major years, they would also lack personnel with any experience of government, and the crucial solidity, weight and charisma of people like Straw, Blunkett, Cook, Mowlam, Cunningham, Beckett and others who have actually been a credit to the Labour Party despite the gradual android takeover during the latter half of the Blair years. Labour also breed heavyweights in opposition, while the Tories breed them in government. Apart from David Davis, there would be no-one else left to lead the party; and we could still buy off PPCs in the seats which the people I have in mind are leaving with another seat elsewhere before any election to keep the top staff in Westminster. (We need PPCs desperately, the strategy of choosing them three or four years before the election has backfired as people not only get bored and fractious waiting for the poll but also see the possibility of their seat turning blue evaporate with that 20% poll lead and decided not to bother.)

And I'm not sure DD would have the charisma necessary to win the election (if he does, he might resign his seat again if he does something he doesn't like). If Cameron can't do it, who can?

Michael Portillo has written an interesting column in the Sunday Times regarding Brown's tactics for an early election. I have to admit that during the run-up to the previous election I found him singularly disloyal to his own party once the going became harder and we needed his support all the more keenly. However, finding myself opposing my own party even while it was 20 points ahead in the polls, I now value his commentary because, although usually scrupulously loyal (equal to about half a Finkelstein on the scale of sheer bloody-minded Cameronness), he does store it all up for the occasions where he can break ranks and explain what he really sees. It is far better for him to be loyal and then disloyal, rather than spend his column inches lambasting the leadership even during the good times and therefore not really being worth noticing when times get harder. Simon Heffer I agree with more often but since he has been anti-Cameron for a long time noticing when he is striking a chord with others is a matter of reading between the lines when his comments are given a front-page call-out in the Diet Torygraph. I don't want someone who is constantly anti- or pro. I want to know what the agenda is for the middle ground. That's mainly why I abandoned the BBC as my home-page and chose to use MSN for a while - so I knew if a news story made it there, it was deemed relevant to non-political readers and therefore was much more important than "Cameron makes speech to FoxyCo Inc. about how best to pluck a chicken - Liam Byrne sticks two fingers up and calls him a cowardy-custard" making the fourth headline down on the right-hand side at the Beeb. In short, if Simon Heffer gets one of his rants onto the front page of the Torygraph, he must be making sense to some other people except me and my friend Mr Eeyore, who supplied me with most of his back-catalogue back in May when I needed cheering up.

The gist of the article is that Brown may well call an earlier election - next spring or summer - before the economy really starts slowing down properly - and that the Tories have "no plan B" to respond to the economic and financial crisis. He doesn't elaborate on what he thinks should happen within the Conservative ranks, instead concentrating on Brown's perceived recklessness that might cause him to call an election before things get too bad and people still remember him as the person who saved the world. My instinct is that if the Tories can't respond now, they will lose momentum and people will not actually feel they have any alternative to Labour, unless something dramatic happens in the meantime to turn things around. If they persist with a Shadow Cabinet full of dilettantes, if they continue to persecute the BBC over "bias", if they cannot put out at least the bare bones of a manifesto, then they will have to find new management to begin to turn things around, particularly if they do not have another conference between now and an election, like Michael Howard did in 2004 after a summer in which his initial seven-month boom went bust during the European elections that year. The Timetable for Action may not have won us the election but at least it was a good outline of what the party would do in office, and it was fully published at this point in the 2001-05 parliament. No similar Tory document exists yet, leading to suspicions that the Tories don't have anything resembling a manifesto. A Tory MP (nameless to avoid embarrassment) promised me policies "within a few months" - back in August. A Tory agent (again, nameless) promised me policies "by August" - meaning August 2007. Every time I ask the machine, that is the answer I get. So not surprisingly, Brown could gamble an early election now that he is in the zone without Tory comeback, obtain a mandate as Major did in 1992, and leave the Tories casting around for another leader.

Or the Tories could get their act together, give up their second jobs, put out the policies they are always promising me, and get into office. Even Michael Portillo sees this. Why can't Team Cameron?

Enough with the opinion, I'm at 4000 characters already. On with the card analysis of Portillo's column. I am using the Cavendish Oracle tarot.

S. Situation. THE MAGICIAN: Intuition, taking chances - "You are now entering a time when your confidence and abilities will blossom. You may find you are able to convince people simply, that your skills of persuasion are sharper than ever before, and that you can complete complex tasks with ease and impressive finesse. Revel in the moment."

Portillo is summarising the situation here in respect of Brown's own hunches being correct and capitalising on his past improvement in form and re-establishment of control over the agenda and economic situation. Portillo is suggesting that Brown has found his spark and is able to use his position to capitalise on it in an early election because of a falling-off of coherent and focused opposition.

1. External thoughts. THE HERMIT: Wisdom of solitude - "This card reveals that the Universe advises you to withdraw from worldly matters for a time in order to reflect and know your true self again. You need to take yourself away from the situation for a time in order to understand the true significance. This could be as simple as not wanting to head out to social events and parties - or even just a desire to speak more softly and less often when with your closest friends. Either way you wil be a more contemplative and earnest soul under this influence. Look to understand what karma is teaching you, and be prepared for occasions when you may feel a little different among others, perhaps even something of a misfit. You will rejoin them at a later time - refreshed and wiser than you were before."

Portillo is speaking as a neutral observer - able to hold the situation at arm's length and produce a careful article. Like me he is not especially loyal to the leadership and can afford to have his own viewpoint. Unlike me he has in the past been more pro- than anti-Cameron, so his article suggesting Brown go to the polls sooner rather than later can be trusted not to be just another fulmination against DC which can be safely ignored. He thus has authority and distance to escape claims of bias and can yet see the greater perspective and possibilities for events as they might unfold.

2. Internal thoughts. THE FOOL: Spontaneity, taking chances - "The Fool is all about that moment when you know you should maybe stop and think a little, perhaps to just check your parachute before leaping off the cliff. But there's something so exciting about taking a real risk; in fact it's thrilling to ignore the warning voices around you and simply go with what you truly want. This Fool captures all the euphoria of beautiful, blind faith - it could refer to a job, a romance, and even the start of a relationship with substance. You know, sometimes being rational does ruin the moment - but it can also save you some major bruises along the way. If you take off, keep flying. If you land, I hope it's not on rocky ground."

Internally, Portillo is risking a lot by talking up the Brown position - he is taking that gamble because he senses change and can admit to mistakes he has made in the past. He takes a chance himself by daring to break party ranks and offer a more independent line, but he has done that to the leadership's cost on more than one occasion, so by refusing to be in one camp or the other he has the credibility to criticise whereas columnists like Simon Heffer have been so resolutely anti-Cameron that their advice can often be disregarded.

3. Roots of the article. STRENGTH: Courage, bravery - "Be persistent and be gentle, and approach the dangers that surround you with clear eyes, an open heart, and without fear. Look right into the heart of that which makes you most afraid, and dissemble your anxiety by true examination. Gentle persuasion will glean great rewards, as will courage - under all circumstances."

Portillo perceives bravery in a Brown gamble to go to the polls earlier than he absolutely has to and therefore win another mandate while he can still portray himself as the best steward of the economy. This would be a courageous move on the Prime Minister's part, and he may still feel he needs the full eighteen months to prove how good he is at helping economic recovery along. Portillo wrote the article on the back of Brown's successes and is trying to goad the Tories into action - and as a result is also brave enough to criticise his own leadership in this way, when the Conservative Party - see passim - is especially paranoid about challenges to its supposed authority through the press.

4. Consequences of the article. 4 OF CUPS: Nervous about change - "You may be feeling a little weary with current events - even though nothing in particular is going wrong. It's like longing for change, even when we know we ought to appreciate the stability and security we previously craved. You may be feeling concerned about where your relationship is going - things have been rolling along for some time, and you may feel that unless things move forward soon, you don't want to stay in this place forever. You may even feel that someone loves you more than you do him or her: look at your role in this situation."

The article has the result of suggesting that during a recession the country would not be prepared to change governments in order to try a different approach rather than blame Labour for existing problems and elect the Conservatives in their stead. The subtext seems to me to be that Portillo has adequately articulated a general fear about change when there is no clear alternative and that could work directly in Brown's favour.

5. Portillo's overall opinion. THE HIGH PRIESTESS: Feminine influence, inner guidance - "You are entering a time when your intuition will be extremely accurate and sensitive. You will also be able to exercise discipline, restraint, and spiritual dignity. You may seem to be a little distant and aloof during this time; however, a more accurate interpretation is that you are listening to your higher self so intently that earthly practicalities are going unheeded at this time. You will do the right thing for all concerned - even if this is indeed the hardest choice to make."

Portillo appears to be speculating that Brown could be using this intuitive sense to guide him on whether or not to call a snap poll, but no clear answer emerges as yet given Portillo does not know exactly what indicators Brown is using to assist him, outwardly and inwardly. Portillo's answer is that Brown is taking a risk based on his senses, both of the objective economic situation and more subjective aspects of his opponents' likely response and movements.

6. Portillo's opinion of the Conservatives. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE: Chance, action - "The one thing we can all be certain of is Change. This card indicates that influences of fate and karma are working in your life at the moment - and resisting that change will hurt. Yet you do not have to give in to fate - you simply need to recognise that change is possible in every small decision we make, in the attitude in which we face our tests in this life. You may be having a marvellous time, or one of the saddest times: this card reminds you that whatever your plans, the wheel of fate keeps turning, that divine forces are always at work, and that change is inevitable. Best to welcome it, as well as the liberation it can represent."

Portillo believes that the Tories need control over their own destiny and to assist Fate rather than allowing it to give them power on a plate. He believes recent events have made them more vulnerable to external conditions rather than allowing them to gain extra momentum, and the Wheel of Fortune may spin further in Labour's direction, enough to provide Brown with an excuse to hold an election at the high water mark of his popularity. The Tories are now required to regain control of themselves rather than trying to surf the subsiding wave of dissatisfaction with Labour into office.

7. Portillo's opinion of Labour. THE EMPEROR: Masculine influence, power - "A strong influence, masculine in feel, is approaching. This will be a time when traditional concerns come to the forefront. Questions of control and ownership may arise in a close and loving relationship."

Brown is in control of events and can steer them back in his favour much better than he could some months ago. Rather than being at the mercy of fate he now controls the elements and is seen to be in command of economy, government and party. This shows Portillo believes Brown remains able to call the shots in any election campaign, and can reasonably expect to continue in office after one.

8. Positives in the Conservative approach. ACE OF CUPS: New love energy - "This card indicates a great surge in energy related to emotions - and beginnings. So it's likely that you've encountered someone or something that has reawakened or reenergised you. There's a sense of fresh starts, new beginnings, overwhelming ambitions, and high hopes regarding a project. This can also indicate a huge rush to have children and get pregnant, and your sex drive may just be going through the roof. It's a hopeful card, but its passionate rush needs to be tempered with a plan for the future. Harness this tremendous energy and watch the changes come - you''ll be amazed - but do use discipline to direct the energy. It's not about holding back; it's about heading in the direction of your dreams."

The Tories have the right energy and determination to win this next election, and it is implied in this card that they have been in receipt of luck and goodwill as well as motivation. They are supposedly (still) basking in the goodwill of the electorate despite the Brown bounce. As recipients, they are passive rather than active, but at least they are still getting this good response from polls and surveys despite being reluctant to channel the "sex drive" into coherent output.

9. Negatives in the Conservative approach. 5 OF PENTACLES: Budget lessons - "There is a great deal you feel you need to worry about right now - money is one of your greatest issues, and you feel stretched. You fret that you may be edging closer to financial ruin with every moment. Solution? The first thing to remember is that your greatest enemy and your staunchest ally is the power of your imagination. Avoid imagining the worst, and little by little this time will pass. You are going to be okay, and you need to believe this - the Universe wants you to understand that you will be taken care of. Pay what you can of each bill. Face your problems with pragmatic courage, and they will dissipate. You are save. This time will pass."

The Tories do, however, have to learn to manage their material and potential executive power more effectively as they are still not actively producing economic methodology to match Brown's ideas, nor is this filtering through decisively to an increasingly insecure public (my parents have gone back to Labour, largely because of the Tories' proposal to scrap Crossrail and the promise of large-scale capital projects hopefully bailing out Taylor Wimpey, of which my father is a operational director; to me this is the first sign of problems for the Tories as if Cameron can't entice them over he is not likely to win an election). They will have to demonstrate that they have the capability to command and exercise power as well as just receive "love energy" from the electorate, which in itself is beginning to fade - if positive, active Conservative support was ever very significant in the first place.

10. Positives in the Labour approach. 6 OF WANDS: Wisdom of experience - "You've worked hard, haven't you, and isn't it great to feel like you've really learned something precious along the way? You're truly at a powerful stage now - though you are are not wildly wealthy or running the nation [well, not for most querents but...this one?], what you now know can never be taken away from you - you've got a gold-mine right between your ears and beating in every drop of your blood. Experience and energy and creativity - that's a great combination. Invest them wisely."

Brown knows and understands government and how to create the conditions for effective success. Since this is Wands rather than Pentacles, the success is little-by-little rather than completely solid, but over time if cultivated could still improve Labour's prospects for a snap poll next summer.

11. Negatives in the Labour approach. 5 OF SWORDS: Challenges, problems - "While everything looks bleak at the moment, remember that everybody has times like this. So now it's your turn - well, welcome to the learning curve, my friend. This is actually quite inspiring - this is when you can start to take real control of your life. It's all too easy to feel and be marvellous when things are going well - but it's these tougher times that make you strong. Meditate, keep calm, and take what action you can - and bash a pillow, not other people, when you feel furious. Things are going to change - you can bet on it. The question is, will you leave this time a better person? Now that's one question that you, and only you, can determine the answer to. In other words, it's your life - if you don't like it, work on changing it. If you can't change it, work on changing how you feel about it."

Brown still faces an uphill battle to win a poll outright, and thus I suspect that he will be considering the option of giving himself more time to prove his results rather than attempt to go to the country on a job not yet completed. The intensification of this card presages future difficulties, but since the Tories have issues - both external and internal - of their own - it is not so difficult for the "wisdom of experience" to minimise any challenges ahead.

12. Overall summary for the Conservatives. JUDGEMENT: putting the past to rest - "The ghosts of the past can haunt you under the influence of this card - but welcome them, for they still have something to teach you. Anything you may have fled from, people you may have unresolved issues with, memories of mistakes you wish you hadn't made may well be coming up. You will accidentally bump into people you haven't seen for 20 years, dream of your ancestors, and think often of old times. The lesson here is that life is a circle, and the wheel is turning - to move on, you need to take stock and reach a new level of understanding about your own actions, those of others, and reach an emotional level of forgiveness that may challenge you. However you must go through this test. It is time to understand, grow wiser, and forgive others and yourself - because then you can heal. Through this flurry of strange events, you will be stronger, you will move on, and you will continue to grow."

Portillo suggests the Tories may face a set of internal challenges before they can proceed because of the trend reversing so disarmingly over the last month and the need to build on current proposals - to find a "plan B" before it is too late. They need to articulate existing commitments successfully rather than just relying on social networking to win them the election. This is an uphill card, a strong indication of the need for a showdown before they can go forward; even a return to previous policies or people before people will once again take them more seriously than at present.

13. Overall summary for Labour. JUSTICE: Honourable choices - "You may be in a situation where you need to assess how much of the truth is being told to you at present: this card reminds you to weigh the situation cautiously and honorably, without excessive emotion, before reaching any kind of conclusion. Perhaps legal matters are entering your life; maybe you are being seen as harsh and impersonal by loved ones. It is important at this time to keep records of your situation, to seek wise counsel, to rely on what actions prove, and what your intuition will tell you. There is a very important decision to be made: it is up to you to decide where to give your trust and confidence."

Brown and Labour will be able to decide on the best action, not necessarily the most expedient, at the time it suits them to go to the polls. The emphasis is on control of passion and rewards for wise decisions, and thus Brown shows the ability to deliberate and come up with a sensible answer rather than being recklessly stupid with economy and/or majority.

14. Summary of the vantage point. 9 OF CUPS: Relationship bliss - "Very, very good times are here - there is a real feeling of making it when this card makes an appearance in a spread. It's a card signifying a kind of overflowing feeling - delight and plenty in equal doses is flushing the doubt right out of your life, and you're now feeling a lot closer to your true self than you were all those times when you wondered whether it was really all worth the effort. Remember everything is a process (think of the Wheel of Fortune card) and that this blissful time will change too - but don't let go of how happy it makes you feel - and keep that close to you to keep you going through the inevitable tougher times that come up in life. Remember to share some of this good stuff around too - and don't forget to spread a little love - everything you send out will increase what comes back to you, ultimately. Stay generous in your heart."

Portillo himself is able to sit back and relax without having to pick sides; he has always used his column in this way since he took over from John Humphries in 2004 in the wake of the Robert Kilroy-Silk affair where BBC presenters were barred from having columns in the press to control partiality or, in Kilroy-Silk's case, anti-Arab rabble-rousing. Although at times he has acted against the Conservative Party's narrow self-interest, he has built a reputation as a respected commentator on the back of this column and is showing a fairness here with usual aplomb. He is happy with this position - he sees two positive alternatives and is not so much of a Tory "fanboi" he cannot criticise his own side. Thus his targets may sometimes be unappreciative but his purpose in writing is sound.

Another day, another Conservative gimmick. This spread attempts to analyse not only Charles Moore and Bruce Anderson's intervention in the continuing debate, but also Conservative motivation for offering what may be the most gimmicky policy yet, with the consumer only seeing a £6 saving in order to smash the BBC's face in because they upset the Tories over Yachtgate. With policy being made in response to silly pranks pulled by two overpaid "comedians" (neither of which I find as funny as, say, Drop The Dead Donkey or Blackadder or previous generations' attempts at alternative comedy), have we seen the latest episode perhaps in the "DJ CAM - Pumping up the poll ratings!" policy auction? Or is it actually going to manifest itself in a serious, well-thought-through set of ideas for dealing with the issue of the license fee.

For what it's worth, I'm not a big fan of the license fee either; it's an anachronism and most other countries have learned to provide a good television and radio service without public subsidy. Since I watch little television as it is (mostly "Seconds from Air Megadisaster Investigation" on the National Geographic Channel and "Everyone Loves People Behaving Badly" on the Paramount Hypocrisy Channel) I don't believe that the BBC provides value for the license fee money any more, particularly since the stuff I grew up on as a child mostly came from commercial television anyway - Blind Date and The Bill were family occasions and when I was twelve I had a crush on Jon Snow from C4 News. While I did an internship at the BBC World Service just before I started my A-levels, I believe that major international channels stand or fall largely on the quality of their output rather than their institutionalised status. Moreover, abolishing the license fee is important to get away from the question of potential bias - my opinion, and that of several unnamed colleagues within the local and national party hierarchy, is that the BBC displays bias towards the government, except when it is at rock-bottom in the polls, when it tends to favour the opposition. The Conservatives in my opinion have been enjoying the benefit of the doubt for too long - and in my notes from earlier in the year I find that I wrote "...and other pro-Tory commentators like Nick Robinson".

The current issue therefore is not so much high principles as low partisanship. The Tories are annoyed not at Sachsgate but at Yachtgate, where Osborne had much more to fear and much more to lose than Peter Mandelson, given stricter standards applied to parliamentarians than to European Commissioners. With that hunch in mind, I felt the debate deserved a look-in here, as I am not sure that my own internal bias stands up to scrutiny without the cards to help me with this.

S. Situation. STRENGTH - "Opportunity to put plans into action if one has the courage to take a risk. Morally, the defeat of base impulses. Reconciliation with an enemy - this can be outside oneself, or else refer to unruly forces within."

This is the Conservative Party exerting control over its own public profile - trying to restrain destructive forces after an accusation on various websites - including the standard responses to Nick Robinson's blog posts - that the BBC deliberately focuses on the Tories' weaknesses to the detriment of attempts to promote their own agenda. This is a largely positive card for the querent, in that it shows restraint, discipline and control, but the aspects here suggest a political bias of their own and an attempt to manipulate output in their own favour to offset a perceived Labour bias.

1. External reasons. ACE OF CUPS - "The feminine, passive power of gestation. The primal quiescence of the Element of Water. Nourishment, protection, the processes of creation, faithfulness, the faculty of feeling. Great fruitfulness is indicated, also fertility and the workings of love in the world. Can predict marriage, future motherhood, joy and plenty."

The Tories are trying to offer an altruistic reason for doing this by offering leadership on the moral issues surrounding recent remarks by Brand and Ross, and it follows on from debates over the issue spearheaded by Charles Moore yesterday in the Telegraph and added to by Bruce Anderson, who is more revealing about underlying attitudes than Moore. It is presented as a response to concerns from the public that taxpayers should not be paying for smutty or obscene comments, and offers a direct and immediate response to this question.

2. Internal reasons. VI PENTACLES - "Balance and solvency in material affairs. Income equals expenditure and the wheels of commerce turn smoothly. This is the card of the philanthropist, who uses his wealth not to build himself up, but to help others rise up in the world also. It indicates charity, sympathy, kindness of heart, and the gratitude of one who has been well-favoured by fortune. Gifts, awards, help from above, patronage."

The Tories' main reason for doing this is probably still fairly decent, in that it helps propose a saving or tax cut equal to a £6 cut in the TV license fee and could be seen as giving them a unique and interesting policy to try and restart their bid for office. However there is some sort of patronage extant here, in that it looks as if they are listening to internal discussions without doing anything exceptionally radical. It is a piece of funded, thought-through policy, which they need; however it may also be seen as rather a gimmick and also not offer significant benefit to the consumer nor change much BBC policy. It is a way of making small changes to the status quo rather than giving a large windfall to viewers.

3. Roots of the policy. IV WANDS - "Achievement in the realm of ideas. The card of the successful and renowned designer, innovator or professional man. The establishment of beauty and elegance. Wit, mental alacrity, the most subtle arts of civilisation, refinement, and culture."

An idealistic and ideologically driven policy based on internal debates and the need to give voice to internal concerns. The Four is usually a card of internal stability and structure, and thus the implication here is that this policy was formed from the debate about bias common on a lot of Tory websites. It cannot as such be voiced in that way, but the Brand/Ross fiasco has legitimised and given shape to these discussions, such that the debate has crystallised into policy. Full marks for trying...

4. Consequences of the policy. V PENTACLES -"Poverty, destitution, material worries, unemployment, loss of security. This card warns of severe material adversities ahead, but suggests that enforced restriction in one area of life may open up possibilities in others. Important bonds may be formed with those in similar circumstances, and avenues still remain to be explored. The message here is 'do not despair'."

...but half marks for outcome. As a policy it does not satisfy those who want a full review of the license fee, nor does it look good to those who have read the internal debates and see the Sachsgate affair as an excuse to punish the BBC for Yachtgate. Most papers covered the story in some detail, including the Daily Telegraph - should those have a windfall tax levied on them because of anti-Tory bias? It makes the Tories seem petty and vindictive while the savings to the consumer are paltry. This is knee-jerk policy-making at its worst as the party seeks to find a way to revive its flagging poll ratings without daring to be radical or to articulate coherent manifesto plans a single second before Brown calls an election.

5. Necessary reasons for this policy. VI WANDS - "Victory, triumph, the arrival of great news. The complete fulfilment of major hopes and wishes. Success earned by hard work and originality, satisfaction in what has been achieved. The skilful overcoming of all opposition through the use of diplomacy instead of force."

In this context, the necessary reason for this was to score points over an adversary and impose a moral standard on wayward comics. It also wanted to display radical thinking, shocking the public into paying attention to Tory proposals. The Conservatives needed to score some points and demonstrate their radical credentials; just as Tony Blair once described himself as belonging to the "radical centre", so the Tories need to show that their thinking goes beyond the rather complex and ponderous economic debate being conducted at levels well above the political stratosphere. It is an impressive radical idea - but if it is to be anything more than that it needs to form part of a solid platform, and the victory implied in the Six of Wands is temporary and needs consolidation to be made permanent.

6. Unnecessary reasons for this policy. JUSTICE - "Injustice, lack of fair dealing, bias, prejudice. Legal tangles that delay the administration of the law. Complex and expensive law-suits."

There is a bias here and the Tories have naturally decided that there own interest is best served by attacking an institution perceived by a minute section of society as biased or objectionable, while ignoring the fact that most people are not bothered by the contents of the Tories' own blogosphere. This policy is naive, only gives a £6 pa saving for the average licenseholder, and does not address more radical opinion that suggests that the state-owned TV stations in other countries do not suffer from commercialisation and that the license fee is rapidly becoming an anachronism, particularly in a hi-tech, globalised society. It is a proposition made at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons, and does not go far enough for most of those against the license fee in principle.

7. Pro-Labour BBC bias. THE WORLD - "The final and successful completion of any matter in hand. The summing up of a question or series of circumstances. A culmination of events. The ending of a cycle of destiny."

The answer here is two-fold. One, if any debate has crystallised or culminated, it is the one on Conservative Home or Nick Robinson's blog during Yachtgate as to why the BBC supposedly opened the book on Osborne rather than sticking to GO's revelations about Mandelson, nor the spurious one about whether taxpayers should fund obscene phone-calls regarding a member of the "Satanic Sluts". Two, if the BBC was not pro-Labour beforehand, it may be forgiven for becoming so now, if only because the Tories have been so rash as to have this debate in Opposition and not safely in power.

8. Pro-Tory BBC bias. II PENTACLES - "The cycles of change at work in the world, the natural fluctuations of fortune which must be allowed for when planning ahead. Indicates movement and changes that are imminent - news, communications, journeys, all connected with business, money, material pre-occupations. Stimulating developments which give birth to an atmosphere of light-heartedness, laughter, joy in the pleasures of society. Skilful navigation of the waters of existence, knowledgeable manipulation of the rules of life to attain continuing success."

The fluctuations in fortune are significant enough recently to show that it is possible to suggest that when the Conservatives were quite significantly ahead in the polls the BBC was pro-Tory. The target of current blogosphere attention, Nick Robinson, is listed somewhere in my notes as "pro-Conservative" - I remember a party colleague after the 2005 election suggesting the BBC would be more friendly to us after he took up his position as chief political editor there - proof "our people" were now taking over despite the general election defeat. So the perception of bias tends to shift and if it is now pro-Labour, it was evidently pro-Tory not so long ago.

9. Continuing approach from the Tories. KING OF CUPS - "He is skilled in the way of the world. He is a born manipulator, gifted at conducting negotiations and arriving at a position of power and authority by means of the agility of his mind rather than the strength of his body. He is a man of ideas, a patron of the arts and sciences, an expert in law, and a leader in business. He seeks power and the fulfilment of his own high ambition, and is adept at diverting the tides of fortune into channels that suit his own ends. He instinctively works in secret, behind the scenes, and avoids taking others into his confidence whenever possible. His motives remain hidden and he is often distrusted or feared by those around him. He commands respect, but not love."

The Tories are not commanding much love here because they are working from narrow sectional interests rather than with the benefit of the BBC as an institution or the press and media in general. This approach looks agile, radical and what Adrian Edmondson might call "edgy", but it is really in the same league as leaving obscene messages on Mark Thompson's answer-phone about what the Tories would like to do to Auntie. It is calculated to appeal to the people - all 37,000 of them who complained about Sachsgate, but in reality does little to address serious issues about the license fee. Cameron may think this is a harmless prank but the last people to do that have had both their BBC careers truncated or suspended. Not a good precedent to follow.

10. Long-term consequences. VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communication of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."

In the context of the immediate consequences which do not look too good for this idea, this card accelerates change or momentum, which could either ameliorate or exacerbate the Five of Pentacles. The unbalanced and chaotic nature of this card tends to rush towards something, but since the Five moderates and tempers this with an unintended or mediocre outcome, the speed that is suggested here could get out of control and derail rather than enhance the Tory strategy for the next election. They may be going too fast in the direction of the Five to slow down and restrain their approach to their detractors and people who do not agree with them.

11. Direction of trend. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "The commencement of a new cycle in one's affairs. The processes of destiny, working through time. Events of great moment, over which one can have no personal influence. The operation of the laws of fortune. The solving of a problem through the progression of circumstances. The reaping of what has been sown."

The Tories are at the mercy of events here - no man is an island. The events of 9/11 opened up a flaw in Tony Blair's personality wide enough for the Tories to (belatedly) catch on to the prospect of government, only to have the pendulum stopped half-way. Had 9/11 not happened, Iraq and the concomitant diminution of Blair's former popularity may not have happened and he would have won another landslide in 2005, leaving the Tories in a comparatively difficult position now. The recent events in Brown's favour have increased the difficulty level of winning the next election, and more unseen and unpredictable events are likely on the horizon. Whether these will be in the Tories' favour or to their misfortune is still to be understood, but on recent form, it may get worse before it gets better.

12. Outcome. IV CUPS - "Emotional happiness and fulfilment which has reached its peak and can proceed no further. The establishment of a family. The passive enjoyment of that which has already been attained. But this card also indicates a new dissatisfaction which the things of this world cannot assuage. Fulfilment having been attained, what can follow? Love is perhaps turning into familiarity."

Two things have already shown that the Tories have some internal problems. One is that Shadow Cabinet members have been asked to give up their second jobs to concentrate on the run-up to the next election - and have complained about taking a pay-cut as a result*. A memo has also been leaked suggesting the Tories are desperate to find something to reverse the current downward trend, and Cameron's team has suggested that old policies should be recycled to try and find something to say. The Party needs to find something to stimulate flagging enthusiasm for it, but does not know how to produce genuine, timely manifesto promises which can re-engage voters that have returned to Labour during the credit crunch. There is a feeling here of ennui, which Cameron cannot shift despite this seemingly radical "brainwaves" such as this. This is designed to stroke the egos of a few activists, disguised as a tax cut which delivers minimal benefit for the viewer and invites reaction from a BBC which only followed Fleet Street's lead in pouring the same sauce over the Tory gander as well as the Labour goose. The party is running out of steam and should seek ways to genuinely excite voters and activists alike rather than paranoid gimmicks designed to punish perceived enemies.

*(perhaps they should be reminded that Cabinet ministers only earn a set amount and probably should not be having other directorships that pay £200,000+; they should also take heed that Ann Widdecombe's comment as Shadow Home Secretary that she would not want to be the actual Home Secretary because she could not sanction abortions possibly did not do us any good as regards Shadow Cabinet ministers at a previous election who refused to face up to the realities of serving in Her Majesty's Government.)

I've never heard of turkeys voting for Christmas, but this may be a case of Guy Fawkes voting for Bonfire Night. A Labour leak has suggested that the SNP might win a 3,000 majority. Discounting the point that this might be misinformation (the Hubdub ticker for this has narrowed appreciably since I posted the widget a few days ago) in order to get Labour voters to turn out on the day, we have to assess the impact that this particular by-election will have, not only on the SNP and Labour but on the Tories. Although they are not going to win - not even David Cameron thinks so - the by-election will have an impact on them as the main opposition party. The intuitive answer goes something like this:

If Labour win, then they will be seen to be clawing back more of their poll ratings and this might give them more of a bounce, reducing the Tories' lead into territory that will produce a hung parliament or even regain the lead by a few points.

If the SNP win, then Labour will break and run; the bounce will evaporate; and the Tories will reclaim a lot of the lead they have lost over the past month. A BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday has given them a 14% lead, but as Tory Home states, this survey does not get factored into their poll-of-polls because of the unreliability and irregularity of its appearances. It claims to take raw data from YouGov, but YouGov usually weight their findings based on demographic data and the likelihood that people will vote, and the fall into single figures remains. However with Labour on the run in Scotland, the Tories will smell blood and go back on the attack and into a genuine double figure lead.

So it was worth doing a line for the Tories as well, and my findings were rather counter-intuitive based on the above assumptions but par for the course with other readings. Meanwhile Portillo has broken ranks this morning with an article in the Sunday Times all but suggesting Brown should cut and run with an early poll, given Tory disarray. The first cuckoo of spring? I'll look at this later, along with the license fee debate and the Tories' response to that issue.

First, though, the SNP and Labour. I am using Terry Donaldson again.

SNP

a. Impact of result. QUEEN OF CUPS - "In a woman's cards, it would generally show either her, or a woman significant in her life in an emotional sense. In a man's cards it would show either a significant woman or the 'female' receptive side of his personality."

I get the words "relief" and "acceptance" here in this card, the ability to relax and enjoy the result after a hard-fought battle. The SNP pride themselves on a good victory and learn from the process of campaigning and any mistakes they made and the way of solving the problems arising from them, or they manage to hold Labour to a small win rather than allowing themselves to crumple and fade, and let Labour away with the seat.

b. Direction afterwards. VII SWORDS - "The need for vigilance. Also, an important but worthwhile sacrifice being made. A rather shadowy figure creeps into our encampment and makes off with five swords, leaving behind the two that presumably he cannot carry."

The SNP do damage, but not lasting or significant, to Labour's prospects in Scotland. A short term gain, but since they cannot carry everything away they are unable to KO Labour completely and should remain aware that there are still more battles ahead.

c. Positive developments. VI CUPS - "Learning to give and receive on an emotional level. Two people face each other, each offering a cup of friendship, from which flowers are growing. This card is similar to the Two of Cups but here there is a sense of something - shown by the flowers - having already grown, rather than starting completely afresh."

A partial reconciliation springs to mind, though I am not sure who or what the SNP will be reconciled with. A peaceful, calm time for the party and a flourishing of ideas, strategies and techniques for office in Holyrood and participation in Westminster. A lasting result for the SNP.

d. Negative developments. PAGE OF PENTACLES - "A young sergeant-at-arms stands looking out at the horizon. Represents looking around at one's own economic horizon for something new to get into. An alternative meaning is the preparedness to take on new responsibilities as the young sergeant gets ready to be an officer."

This might indicate complacency and a feeling of entitlement, and the SNP may read more into the result than necessary - there might be people on the radical edge of the party believing this gives them a mandate for independence - the candidate has already stated that he would get "homesick" at Westminster and supposing he would be there only five years or so before independence. The SNP need to avoid getting too hopeful that this marks the beginning of the end for the Union - it may be just a protest vote that will return to Labour at the next general election.

e. Eventual Outcome. PAGE OF WANDS - "Learning and/or travel is shown here, as the Page prepares himself for a journey which will take him through foreign lands, suggested by the mountains/pyramids shown behind him in the distance."

A dynamic situation with as-yet unrealised potential - potency and possibilities only beginning to be realised. If the SNP can remember that independence from England would not bring huge dividends and would mean the end of free healthcare given the size of the taxbase of comparable countries like Ireland, and thus would impose financial hardship on constituents, then they can use this potential within the Westminster system and help Scotland to flourish without being too dependent on English money or being a participatory force within the Union. The SNP have the possibility to speak up for Scotland but are foolish to claim that any victory here enhances the possibility of actual independence.

LABOUR

a. Impact of Result. THE WORLD - "A very successful period is opening up for you. The achievement of an important objective in your life. Aim still higher, because the higher you aim the better. Dealing with the building blocks of reality. Entering a period of completing a karmic debt."

The impact of the result is one of transcending possible defeats and turning it into a victory over other forces elsewhere. Although the polls and cards still point to an SNP win, the force is still with Labour enough to get a positive outcome from this result. It really depends on how Brown reacts and how the English polls react, because the opposition is still fragmented over the UK as a whole. If the Tories are not winning in Scotland other diversions may be in place to minimise the damaging aspects of defeat.

b. Direction afterwards. KNIGHT OF SWORDS - "If this represents a person, it shows the querent or a man that they are closely associated with in a conflict situation. The Knight may be on their side or an adversary. This card can sometimes suggest the use of conciliation and negotiation rather than the continuation of hostilities. If it represents a process, it points to the need to prepare for battle, the kind of battle being suggested by the surrounding cards."

Brown will be anxious to try to quell any potential fall-out from this and although at one point it threatened to destroy his premiership it no longer has the power to do that. However, he is going to need to be able to turn the agenda away from this quickly and use some of his new potency to stop trouble spreading. There is an ounce of profligacy in this - spending his way out of his own recession - but he is not paralysed by this result, rather energised.

c. Positive developments. VIII SWORDS - "Frustration. The need for patience. If the woman struggles against the limiting power of the swords (i.e. her situation at this time), then she will only succeed in hurting herself. Here she must exercise self-control and wait until a change takes place in her situation before she dissipates any further energy in trying to set herself free."

This is the party exercising restraint (since this is a positive development, the card is said to be "exalted" or, in political parlance, have the best spin put on its appearance) and understanding their strengths as well as worrying about their weaknesses. However there is little to be absolutely positive about and this is also a warning to the party that it is dangerous to struggle or behave in a pessimistic, or paranoid manner. This is not ultimately a defeat - the Tories are still not gainng in a place where they ought to be bouncing back to form any kind of a government. Labour cannot afford to panic here, and because this card is exalted, they understand this and learn from this defeat. Brown did not panic during the spring and summer, and Labour will not sack him when he is at his most effective.

d. Negative developments. WHEEL OF FORTUNE - "Excessive use of intoxicants. Overfunding. Overexpenditure. Huge debts. Expense account. Massive mortgage."

This is all metaphorical, but Labour need to avoid "overspending" their political capital here and carry on with what they are doing elsewhere. They no longer have a make-or-break situation on their hands, but it could still upset their recovery in the polls across the whole of the UK if the Tories remain sanguine or do not also lose from this or other issues that crop up between now and November 6. Labour need to move on from this as there may be little they can actively do to propel themselves back into a positive lead altogether.

e. Eventual Outcome. IV SWORDS - "The lifting of tensions. A young knight rests on the ground while above him we see three swords being lifted away. Beside him lays another swords, which is his."

Brown is not so much bouncing back here but doing what he does best in a crisis - remaining calm, using the qualities of steadiness and patience that he possesses in spades, and allowing even defeat to wash over him. The air is cleared - no panic will result, no leadership issue will be brought forward, and he is able to get on with his job in relative peace.

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY

a. Impact of Result. DEATH - "The Death card shows that one complete period of your life is coming to a close, to make way for a new one which is beginning. We see here the cosmic street sweeper, clearing away all the debris to make way for new life forms to come along. Without that process of purification that new life would just get choked out and be denied its chance of existence."

Death is often downplayed in the modern tarot because in many private readings the emphasis is on advice rather than prediction and transformation is often regarded as positive rather than negative. However, endings are endings. You could think that what was bad for Labour would be good for the Tories, but this here is counter-intuitive, indicating that it may come too late to stop internal discomfort within the Tory party, or that failure in Glenrothes actually begins to call Cameron's approach to voters north of the border into question. To win a general election the Conservatives have to making waves in Scotland; the party has downplayed its prospects in Glenrothes but this card's processes could even call Cameron's leadership into question.

b. Direction afterwards. KING OF SWORDS - "If this card represents a person, it shows the querent or a man whom they are associated with in a situation of having won a great victory. By looking at the surrounding cards, we would be able to tell the nature of the victory and whether it has worked to the querent's advantage. If it represents a process or an event it suggests that you do not have to continue struggling. Rather, it might show that the right time has come to reassess whether the time is right for consolidation. In other words, for taking benefit of the gains already achieved."

The way surrounding cards indicate the impact of the Glenrothes vote for the Tories, it suggests to me that the party is bullish for a bit longer, trying to make maximum gain out of the result. With Death nearby, although purification does not necessarily have to mean physical or political death, it does tend to be a negative card dressed up as a positive result. However, the Tory bullishness represented by this card could mask more difficulties than provide solutions; their difficulties might not come to the fore quite yet because of the masking effect but they may not wholly disappear.

c. Positive developments. X SWORDS - "Major changes - not always ones that are desired - but the negative aspect of these can be minimised or completely reversed by going along with them and in that way turning them to your advantage."

This is the positive aspect of one of the most negative cards in the pack - that destruction of something usually leads to change and rebirth. The prognosis is still not good, but at least this result will produce needed change and endings, and, since no-one has ever quite managed to destroy the Tories despite hundreds of attempts over the last twenty years* this is a positive development - though not necessarily for existing personnel. A reshuffle or even a leadership contest could now be seen to be, quite literally, on the cards.

*(most notably by some on their own side - Michael Gove's article on the eve of the 2004 conference suggesting that the Tories would come third at the 2005 election and with the subtext that he was angling for leadership of this benighted incarnation is not forgotten by Parliament of Fowls, and has meant that every time he opens his mouth to speak on policy I am reminded of his irritatingly callous refusal to help the party who had just given him a safe seat after a month or two of membership and I de facto do not take him seriously. How he managed to square this one with his local party I don't know, because had I been the association chairman I would have demanded his resignation immediately.)

d. Negative developments. VII PENTACLES. "Hard work, but approaching the harvest time. Notice how in this card we are only approaching our harvest time, i.e. a point where we can witness all of our efforts paying off and materialising. The figure in the card shows someone working a hoe, not a scythe or other cutting instrument. The hoe is used for making water channels through which the plants can receive water. As he stares at the ripening crop, we become aware that it is still not yet ready to be plucked. As you can see, some of the Pentacles are still very small on the plants."

The Tories have not made the effort here to try and improve their results in Scotland. They have neglected their crops and let the SNP run away with the prize. The intuitive thing from Cameron's point of view is to let the SNP reap the harvest and in the glare of negative publicity, see Brown go down the pan alongside Labour's chances of winning the next election. However this crop is withering on the vines, for two reasons. One, it is naive to believe that events will not conspire, as they have in the last month, to cancel out the bad effects of Glenrothes with better news elsewhere. Two, the Tories have not realised that winning Scotland back is necessary to gain power in the rest of the UK. Becoming a narrow English interest group will neither win them a working majority, nor maintain them in government over the long term. A fragmentation of the opposition was what did for Michael Howard in 2005 because the Liberal Democrats split not only northern and Scottish/Welsh opposition to Labour, they even prevented them from winning southern marginals like Watford, Harlow, seats in the Home Counties and the south-west, not to mention more urban seats in Bristol and Southampton. The Tories need to speak for the whole of the United Kingdom and cannot assume that what is bad for Labour is automatically good for them. Complacency is the thief of electoral success.

e. Eventual Outcome. KNIGHT OF CUPS - "This card shows an individual or a situation involving an individual in which strong emotions are involved. The person could be a lover, a friend, or a symbol of how the querent is interacting with others emotionally. In a man's cards, it would show either him or a friend; in a woman's cards it would generally show a man in her life, or the 'male' (active) side of her personality."

This card for me has come to signify David Davis - during the spring it appeared constantly as an opposition or question for the Tories in otherwise fairly benign outcomes. Nevertheless here it may be a more general sign of trying to troubleshoot the party - warped by the intensity of Death and the Ten of Swords it may be that this is a rescue package of some sort to prevent the Tories going under at a time when we need coherent opposition to Labour rather than a collection of squabbling oppositional factions which have allowed Labour two successive general election wins after the "Ground Zero" approach of 1997. This is the possible alternative to what has evidently failed so catastrophically elsewhere.

Lovely heartwarming story from the Mail - a cute little wol just right for our parliament...

Wonder if he is imposing a license fee on the local voles and/or ringing their grandparents saying "I ATE UR LITTLE SNUFFLES YESTURDAYYYYYYY!"

I think we should be told.

Remind me when I become Prime Minister to make sure that the death of an MP automatically triggers a by-election, because this by rights should have been fought months ago and, while the Tories delayed moving the writ for Henley until after Nantwich and Crewe (a move which made me think that even at the height of their popularity they were rather too paranoid for a party 20% ahead in the polls), this by-election is due to the unfortunate passing of John MacDougall in the summer.

An unsourced comment on the Wikipedia page for the by-election suggests that "There is speculation that this date was chosen to coincide with the fallout of the US Presidential Election, thus blocking media coverage of an embarrassing result for Labour". The timing of by-elections should, almost by definition, be removed from party political control to make sure they are run in the fairest and most equal way possible for all the parties, given that the timing of the Hartlepool by-election in 2004 meant that both Labour and Liberal Democrats could make their case during the party conferences but the Tories had to rely solely on their own localised campaigning without the benefit of having held their conference as well before polling day. It is also said that Michael Howard altered the timing of his speech that year to ensure the probably negative coverage of the by-election (Tory fourth place in that poll, behind UKIP) did not usurp his place in the spotlight, but since it had already been held, he could not make the same impact Tony Blair and Charles Kennedy could during their annual events. Therefore the timing of by-elections should be automated to ensure the party which moves the writ cannot manipulate the polling date.

This is a much more pressing debate, in fact, than the issue of the BBC license fee, which will be tomorrow's subject thanks to Charles Moore's intervention into the question and the Tories' latest attempt to jump the shark on issues no-one really cares about beyond the latest stupid headline about Jonathan Ross, Russell Brand and Andrew Sachs' granddaughter.

Without further ado, the spread. In this case, like for most by-election spreads I've done (including NWC, which I will post at some point, possibly after Glenrothes, as the input and output sections puzzle me tremendously - because it implies the wrong candidate won), I have taken the two front-running parties, Labour and the SNP.

Because I have little bias in this question, I feel able to keep this at arm's length; in most other by-elections I've participated in, I have usually been more partisan and had my judgement clouded by emotional considerations. Assessing the possibilities I have to say neither party would get my vote, except if I was voting tactically, because Alex Salmond abuses the English taxpayer by slashing Scottish prescription charges and taxes while asking Westminster for another £1bn bailout. I have lived in Ireland, a country of similar size and tax-base to Scotland, and had to pay full whack for medication and doctor's appointments.

If the SNP desires independence so badly, they should look at how Ireland is unable to afford a free health service and even the £7+ charge we English still have to pay pales beside the cost of prescriptions in Ireland. I have paid for medicine in Poland and Latvia, and in both countries the cost of drugs is steep compared to local purchasing power. Why should the Scots get free medicine at England's expense? Alex Salmond should be given a period of, say, five years wholly independent of Westminster subsidy and see how much of what he puts through in Scotland can actually be afforded solely on the back of Scottish taxpayers.

There goes the opinion, now let's look at the cards.

LABOUR

I drew four cards for the progress of the campaign and one extra to summarise the overall prospects. Back to Douglas for the explanations of the cards. Douglas and Suckling are equally good at predictory explanations, whereas Donaldson (used for the Yachtgate readings) is good for advisory spreads.

L. Overall prospects. QUEEN OF SWORDS - "She is highly intelligent, has a complex personality and is concerned with attention to detail and accuracy in all things. She is alert to the attitudes and opinions of those around her and skilled at balancing opposing factions whilst she furthers her own schemes. She is self-reliant, swift-acting, versatile and inventive."

Labour are not taking anything for granted here and are perhaps sacrificing confidence for care in fixing up every last vote that they can take back. By-election I have been on with Labour* have always shown the party to be confident in their success and even arrogant at times, but this campaign is much more closely fought, suggesting the machine has learned the lessons of Nantwich and Crewe and Glasgow East and is concentrating on putting a rational message out rather than trying to call the SNP names.

*(or as a Tory with my Labour-supporting ex-boyfriend playing gooseberry at the Hodge Hill campaign in 2004, mainly because neither of us could bring ourselves to explain to his Blairite friends that I had crossed the floor - I sat there bullsh*tting for all I was worth about why I wouldn't be going to conference later on in the year at a New Labour party the next day and then slunk off upstairs to read my book in peace. If you think Labour activists are bad now, you should have seen them there, most of them were crapping themselves at Michael Howard so he wasn't all that bad a leader if he could scare my boyfriend and his friends...)

1. Beginning of the Campaign - X WANDS - "The triumph of force. Great good fortune which has become the means of oppression. Obstinacy and fixed ideas which serve to repress society into a static mould. Power which has no end beyond the expression of itself. The burden imposed by a surfeit of success."

Labour have been so successful for so long that their machine cannot in general cope with the surge in support for alternative governing parties (the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland) that they began this campaign in hock to the rigidities of thinking that this card often highlights. This mode assumed success and took other parties for granted as necessary but superfluous annoyances. After poor results in the spring and summer the party was crippled by the end of boom and the beginning of bust, thereby forcing the party to try and accept that its time in government was coming to an end. The Ten of Wands represents this burden perfectly and is seen here as Labour trying to reignite its sense of once again being back in opposition to the prevailing political winds.

2. Initial response to conditions - KING OF WANDS - "A man who is noble and courageous, and who exhibits qualities of great strength and fortitude. He is virile and passionate and has a loyal and generous nature. He is a lover of traditional ways and family life. He tends to act swiftly when provoked, yet on occasion may find it hard to be decisive because his essentially just outlook enables him to see every side of a problem. He often acts a mediator and is splendid at giving moral support."

This is Labour rediscovering a more pro-active and aggressive demeanour and means the prospects are not as bleak as they could have been if the lessons from the Ten had not been absorbed and used in developing that all-important narrative and agenda. The Kings are all in control of their suit, and the King of Wands is a good tactitian who is able to say and do the right thing at the right time. Labour are looking better and more responsive as a result of their time in the wilderness and are able to turn things around to their advantage because of more favourable winds emerging at a time when they looked more desperate than ever.

3. Development of the campaign - PAGE OF WANDS - "He is ambitious and resourceful, enthusiastic and adaptable. He is a messenger who brings good tidings, stimulating news, witty gossip. He is by nature faithful and trustworthy, vigorous in the service of those in authority over him."

Labour have developed their campaigning technique to be much more dependent on the needs of their constituents, coming at them with suggestions and requests, rather than orders or diktats. They are soliciting the voters as providers of a service and ultimately presenting themselves as delivery-boys of a particular and popular product - a positive and outgoing message characteristic of what they tend to do best as a political party. It also suggests, however, that they are paying close attention to the votes individually, which, along with the summary Queen of Swords, hints that they might not yet be fully confident of victory and thus lack the necessary confidence in a clean sweep which is often a precondition of psychological victory.

4. Eventual outcome - VIII WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds the promotion of understanding and cooperation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."

Labour are not therefore certain to win - and I still feel a bit queasy when I try to picture them winning, suggesting to me my sixth sense still has a block on that idea. But the movement which has come out of these cards tells me that there is momentum on their side which will keep them in the fight until close of poll and get the best result possible.

THE SCOTTISH NATIONALIST PARTY

I drew cards for the same four positions and the fifth for a summary card.

S. Overall Prospects - THE CHARIOT - "Success, triumph over the obstacles life throws in one's path. Secure progress, victory achieved through personal effort, the triumph of initiative. Not success which is inherited or the product of fortune."

The SNP are going flat out with confidence in victory and striking while the iron is hot to push forward into another Labour seat in Scotland after taking Glasgow East in July. However with The Chariot also comes reckless force which can be dangerous to the wielders and riders in the cart pictured on the card. Therefore, while the SNP feel they have a good chance and are taking the opportunity when it comes, they could be going too fast and not noticing the detail of the specific campaign.

1. Beginning of the Campaign - ACE OF PENTACLES - "Security, firm foundation, wealth, possessions, appreciation of physical beauty, sensuousness. The faculty of sensation. Material comfort, appreciation of the good things of life, the approach to the Spirit through the things of Earth. Stoicism, the ability to endure adversity with steadfastness."

The SNP began effectively with an open goal and the confidence of having won Glasgow East, which meant that as well as having executive power - what I believe can be interpreted or divined through the suit of Pentacles with regards to politics - in Scotland as a whole. Their potential is therefore solid and steady here. There is a good reason to expect an SNP win even though as an English Conservative I disagree with their use of executive power to spend today and ask for more money from Westminster tomorrow - in the middle of a crisis as well. Their ability to use executive power to their own electoral benefit is similar to Labour's own a few years ago.

2. Initial response to conditions - KNIGHT OF SWORDS - "He is courageous, strong, highly skilled and at his best in a difficult situation. He indicates the approach of battles that must be fought and enemies who must be defeated by strength of arms. He is the archetypal warrior."

Similar to The Chariot, this card often indicates a touch of recklessness and daring-do which could get out of control if it is not tempered with a more methodical and concentrated approach. Psychologically the SNP obviously have supreme confidence in their own ability to win this, and are not as obsessed as Labour appear with catching every last vote. They are charging forward but they have transferred the energy from material to mental, relying more on promise than record. This is a risky strategy as a more focussed and grounded approach is healthier during a recession which could see projects and spending plans cut back, including the promise of free prescriptions if the money cannot be found. The SNP are in danger of dulling their ability to prove their worth at Westminster as a result.

3. Development of the campaign - X SWORDS - "Desolation, disruption and ruin - generally referring to a group or community rather than an individual. But cause for hope is suggested here. This card represents the nadir - the lowest point in this cycle of fortune. From now on things can only get better [where have I heard that before?!]. The worst has already been experienced."

The SNP may even have hit the buffers here and although I still believe they may win it, the tactics of The Chariot and the Knight of Swords are no longer able to convince voters. They show the difficulties of putting promises before actual record (as shown in the Ace). The "nadir" gives the SNP time, however, to turn things around, given that this is the penultimate and not the climactic card. However it could also mark the start of the Labour recovery - because of the rise of Brown's personal stock rising over the last month - and the diminishing of prospects for the Scottish Nationalists.

4. Eventual Outcome - IX WANDS - "Great strength and stability which cannot be overthrown. Courage in defence and victory in attack. Assurance that opposition will be defeated. Reveals that one is in a safe and secure position which is unassailable."

Contrasting with the previous card, and with the card in the same place for Labour, the Nine indicates the ability of the SNP to fend off the Labour counter-attack, and defend their position well. As I said, my feelings are that the Nationalists will manage to overturn the Labour majority, despite Brown's rise in popularity over the last month. Defence here beats an uncontrolled and unmanaged offence.

ULTIMATE RESULT CARD - V WANDS - "Opposition which requires mental agility to be defeated. Conflicts which cannot be avoided, tests that must be passed for further success to be attained or present achievement continued. Upheavals which call forth all resources of ingenuity and leave nothing secure. Indicates that the prize will have to be fought for relentlessly if it is to be gained."

In the Norse sagas, the story of Ragnarok concisely detailed the end of the world. WIthin it are many different battles, but one is between Heimdall and Loki: "age-old enemies, [they] will meet for a final time, and neither will survive their encounter." While I'm not sure Brown lives up to the shining character of Heimdall, nor does Alex Salmond plumb the depths of the sinister Loki, this card in this position for this event conjures up that line. This is not a clearly obvious result; both sides are evenly matched and although one party must eventually win, this card suggests not only a dead heat, but a destructive or exhausting one like the match between Heimdall and Loki. By-elections are always keenly fought and although the SNP started with a massive advantage, Labour have clawed a lot back in the last month and the SNP acted recklessly enough that the result is now in the balance. There can be only one winner, but both Heimdall and Loki are destroyed by their duel, and it could be that in the event of an SNP win Labour will have clawed back enough ground to make it respectable enough, whilst the SNP will have thrown a lot of promise away and done their reputation enough damage in the long run that Salmond has to rein in some of his radicalism and rethink policies he once thought would win the hearts and minds of the Labour establishment.

Tim Montgomerie has been assessing the way forward for the Conservative Party on Conservative Home. The only problem is that the Conservative leadership seems to be failing to stop the slow decline in its poll ratings, given the recent forecasts. Are they actually listening to Tim, who is regarded as a friendly voice, and in that case, will it do any good to arrest the current trend and revive the prospect of more than a bare majority at the next election?

DCMX on the most recent thread suggested that the "Cameroons" were not the best listeners to external voices. Personally I would be sceptical of a leadership who reacted to every single commentator and took too much notice of external opinion. However it seems that Conservative Home should be an integral part of an informal advisory network, since it is populated by the "new Tory" constituency who are basically friends of the party and receive exclusive briefings from MPs and the Shadow Cabinet. If anyone can inform the Conservative Party, Conservative Home might well be the first in line to give that advice.

Without further ado, let's get on with the actuality of the situation as suggested by the tarot. Glenrothes is already written but since polling day is still almost a week into the future, it will be up as well some time this evening. Despite an infected cut making my index finger painful every time it touches the keyboard, I'm still finding questions to try and answer. Please let me know whether you can follow these card spreads without images through the comment system - I have found an alternative way of posting thumbnails after my last attempt backfired somewhat because the width of the column limits the horizontal size of the frame.

For a bit of variety I thought I would use the Cico Books Dragon Tarot written by the interestingly named Nigel Suckling. Presumably a pig-totem then.

S. Situation. SEVEN OF SWORDS - "Hope appears after a long struggle but keep your guard up. You face opposition to your plans and it would be wise to learn its source, but you can achieve your aims if you persevere and be certain of your facts. Avoid direct confrontation, however; let your ideas speak for themselves."

This is the situation at the junction between Montgomerie and the "Cameroons" - NB I don't normally buy into memes meant to insult their owners, but I have to admit my word for the current Tory leadership would not be commonly understood outside my immediate friends. It is trying to explain the relationship between Conservative Home and CCHQ, and a respected, sympathetic opinion-former on the other. This suggests that there are fewer correspondences than one might hope for, and that things are already somewhat at cross-purposes. Nevertheless it is encouraging that the Seven has come up rather than the Five or the Ten because that means that some progress has been, can be or is being made.

1. External Tory Position regarding the Ten Next Steps. THE HIGH PRIESTESS - "Inspiration, learning, mystery, understanding of the inner workings of life, enlightenment and serenity are all representated by this card, with a hint that serenity can sometimes lead to emotional detachment from daily events. Often this card implies that hidden spiritual factors are currently affecting your life, so look carefully within or consult a respected adviser."

Cameron and his team are evidently not making any sudden or public moves to betray any sign of changing their course due to pressures from one particular person or site. This is expected from the perspective of the leadership in that responding too sharply to one suggestion or group of suggestions may end up looking panicked or in hock to special interests when the party should be developing its own response. However this is also detachment creeping in - when is it safe to acknowledge advice and even encourage and solicit it from one's own members? The Tories need to show signs that they are listening to their own party, particularly advisers such as Tim who are regarded as being of the same tendency or faction that Cameron belongs to.

2. Internal Tory position regarding the Ten Next Steps. KING OF PENTACLES - "The King of Pentacles is wealthy, confident, commanding, inspiring, intelligent, mathematical, straightforward and determined. He is conservative, hard-working, and leads by example. He is equivalent to Jupiter in astrology, the jovial ruler of the other planets and bounteous dispenser of wealth, which he naturally attracts. He is a loyal friend, a wise counsellor and a reliable, if cautious, partner."

I get the feeling that the Tory response is two-fold. One, they are asking whether Montgomerie is in possession of the Holy Grail, or whether he is simply just one of a number of competing interests who does not necessarily have all the right answers. Two, would what he suggests play well enough with voters outside Westminster to change their course solely to bring what could be a minority voice on board? Current Conservative Home campaigns and issues focus on a review of the license fee, which excites only those perceiving anti-Tory bias in the corporation after the handling of Yachtgate and the Russell Brand/Jonathan Ross affair, hardly a pressing issue in Peoria - or Portsmouth. The Tories are displaying their own methods of continuing forwards, and as a response to advice the King of Pentacles is more in tune with his own intuition and substance than concerned about taking others' feelings into account.

3. Reasons for the Ten Next Steps - Tim Montgomerie's viewpoint in writing them. THE FOOL - "A new beginning with fresh adventures ahead, although there is a very real danger of it all going horribly wrong. The bag on the Fool's shoulder represents natural talents that he could usefully employ if he took the trouble to open it, but he generally doesn't. For wild optimists this card is a warning to try and temper enthusiasms with a little common sense. For pessimists, it suggests lightening up a little."

The Tories are at a critical stage and the roots of Montgomerie's concerns are evidently that the party needs to adjust itself to cope with the poll-slide rather than naively trotting forwards as if things were still going in an upward direction. The clash comes where the party believes it can cope on its own and by utilising existing strategems to turn things back in a favourable direction; Tim sees it more as needing to temper this naive assumption with some sounder advice from a still-sympathetic commentator. The result is that Tim is getting through but the party believes itself to be still fully in control of its own destiny whereas Montgomerie is increasingly worried by its current direction.

4. Results of the Ten Next Steps - Tim Montgomerie's viewpoint. SEVEN OF WANDS - "Success is likely, even though the odds appear to be stacked against you. Victory will be all the sweeter for the effort it takes you, and sweeter still if you just quietly get on with doing whatever is necessary without complaint. Others may be trying to undermine you, but just talk things through with them openly and the threat will go away."

This shows more that Montgomerie is getting through to Team Cameron and that there is some benefit to him writing this advice; however there is no indication that DC and co will put anything into practice directly and visibly before they find themselves past the point of no return. Montgomerie is trying to get them to put a bit more thought into projecting their core message but may be hamstrung in the party's eyes by them seeing him as a narrow sectional interest with impracticalities in his approach. It is filtering through quietly but the party cannot afford to risk his strategy being wholly right.

5. Advice to the Tories from other commentators. QUEEN OF PENTACLES - "The Queen of Pentacles is regal, generous and diplomatic, ruling her suit in close partnership with her King and in much the same manner, although with perhaps a touch more warmth and understanding of human frailty. She has a good grasp of finances as well as being a generous and welcoming hostess. The card represents either someone you should turn to or qualities you need to cultivate."

The Queen suggests that most commentators advise the Tories to be more open with their policies and alternatives to Labour - the Queen often represents administration or "household" management, and the qualities associated with its success. Thus most commentary suggests the Tories need more of a directly materialist approach to the British "household" to impress voters who are worried about the mismanagement of the public household by Labour but are beginning to see the government as more virtuous in austerity and the Tories a riskier proposition in the full teeth of a recession. I joined the Conservative household because I saw Keynesianism in action in Poland and decided that it actually suppressed a fragile economy and by 2003 the Polish economy was suffering from high taxes, low revenue, and no incentives to employment, precipitating the exodus to Britain in 2004 when they joined the European Union. It cured me of my romance with Labour and combined with the strong, administrative-orientated leadership of Michael Howard replacing the lukewarm Iain Duncan-Smith and frankly laughable William Hague, I finally came home to the Tories who seemed to be able to see an alternative. The Tories now need to convince people outside the economic fraternity of the LSE that their proposals are more attractive than tax-and-spend in a recession.

6. Warnings to the Tories from other commentators. SIX OF CUPS - "The immediate future promises to be full of interesting options and possibilities but you may miss out on them if you spend too much time dwelling on the past. Nostalgia can be taken too far."

This suggests the Tories have not caught up with the current crisis because they are seen to rely on things which have been successful in the past - the economics of growth - rather than being able to realign themselves with the politics of recession. Labour lost in 1992 because despite the downturn they did not look able to govern at a time of crisis because they assumed an economy with plenty of slack to spare for increased spending. Now the Tories have not yet articulated the difference in their approach which would be comparable to more of the same under Brown and Darling's stewardship of the economy, bad as it may have been in the past. The Tories cannot rely so much now on the previous mood prior to October 2008 and commentators are asking for more solutions and less breezy spin.

7. Approach to criticism by the Conservative leadership. EIGHT OF CUPS - "Restlessness causes you to question many aspects of your life and possibly with good cause, as maybe it is time for some major changes. But remember that is is your own restlessness and need for a sense of purpose that is driving you. Others will not appreciate being blamed for what is basically your problem."

Team Cameron are showing signs of thinking, and contemplation is another aspect of this card - which has the subtext in many books that "the well has run dry" - previous approaches have failed and you need a rethink. The card is passive rather than active - rethink therefore needs re-orientation, a publicity drive aimed at voters rather than seminarians at the LSE, and a hardening of thoughts into policy along the lines of the 2004 Timetable for Action, which resonated on marginal doorsteps and gave the Tories the half-way swing of roughly 6% which put Cameron in an enviable position when he took office three years ago. Team Cameron are a supertanker when it comes to U-turns, but if they can turn around before Christmas they will have translated this rethink into response.

8. Outcome of this approach. THREE OF SWORDS - "Argument and strife threaten your plans. Be patient. Separation, frustration and disillusionment all loom, but if you hold onto your long-term goals they can still be realised - you just have to work out who your real friends are. Break-ups are always painful, but totally necessary in the long run."

This card has a habit of falling out of the pack just when I am feeling rather queasy, and I always end up being lavishly sick by the small hours of the morning. This is not a good omen at all - if it comes up in an outcome, you should brace yourself for defeat and, once the nausea, headaches and vomiting subside, try another route to the goal in question. The Tories are in the problematic situation where any rethink will turn in to a return to previous policies or a reshuffle (at the very least) rather than a response or change for the better. I am not kidding myself that I have Cameron's ear, but if he is reading this, the Three is very rarely the kind of card I would want in any spread dealing with the outcome of any approach. I hope the headache doesn't last too long and that Dave feels better once he has thrown up, because in this case even Nurofen isn't going to work.

9. Did they listen to Tim? THE DEVIL - "Whether or not you are fully conscious of it, you or someone in close proximity are already bound to some self-destructive attachment that can only end in tears. It is time to listen to your own inner voice of wisdom and a way out will soon become clear. The misfortune threatened by this card is not a force of nature, but a consequence of choice.

I will give Cameron the benefit of the doubt here and say that if he can begin to reorientate himself and adjust his direction NOW he may well stave off bigger problems in the future. However, the saying, "You have made your bed and have to lie in it" may be appropriate as here in the outcome section we have the cards that were perplexing me in the internal development section a week or so ago, and propelled me into writing this blog in the first place. It is never too late - I was once told that by an angry secretary of a language school in Poland who I had kept waiting too long with a job offer open and had not accepted it because of another offer elsewhere which evaporated after rapid change at the top - only to have her ring me up a fortnight later to be told the offer was still open. Nevertheless, in politics, the opportunism of others is more alive than in the dizzy world of English as a Second Language teaching, and if Cameron doesn't listen someone else may be only too happy to oblige.

10. Ultimate outcome. THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE - [Because of the proximity of the Three of Swords and The Devil, I am reading this card as ill-dignified.] "Bad luck, obstruction, betrayal and indifference all conspire to bring you to a standstill. This is a bad time for new undertakings and also for gambling. Concentrate on small, practical achievements that will bear fruit. Practice cheerfulness in the face of adversity. It will pass."

Because of the way tarot works, this card is read in conjunction with others, particularly as an outcome. It introduces an element of chance out of the control of the commentators or parties. As it is ill-dignified, it represents bad luck, not good; the roll of God's dice which led to 9/11 at the peak of a period of global prosperity, for example, or the way in which the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody provided Labour with a crushing defeat in an extremely safe English seat. However if the steps taken in the Three of Swords and The Devil are anything to go by there will be a decisive moment whereby either the Tories will have to put up, or Cameron may find himself shutting up - permanently or otherwise. Yachtgate was too close to Betsygate for my liking and given that advice taken leads to a disappointing conclusion to this spread, I'm not altogether sure what the Tories can do to avoid a more fundamental and radical change of direction.

I'm off to take a shower but I will post the results of the Glenrothes spread later on.