Parliament of Fowls

...it doesn't rhyme with "clothes" as I thought previously. My only connection with Scotland is an English uncle living in Alloa who I only see once a year, so perhaps that can be excused.

Next Hubdub question:

Labour seem to be doing better for the moment, so here goes. I will do a more comprehensive reading for this tomorrow, but I'd like to do what I did for Jonathan Ross with something more explicitly political.

Labour - DEATH - interesting - it could either signal Gordon Brown's beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning for him - who knows?
SNP - QUEEN OF WANDS - a responsive quest but now that Labour are picking up in the polls again, both leading in Scotland and not trailing so far behind over the UK as a whole, they might still have some ability to pull things back. I was going to go for Labour, but I'm tempted to vote SNP here because of the ability to create their own destiny rather than just yield to fate.
Scottish Liberal Democrats - IX CUPS - Solid, dependable but also rather self-contained and relaxed. Not good for a political party and an election so perhaps not.
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party - V WANDS - struggling to make headway in Scotland's more diverse political arena than in the increasingly binary world of England. No chance.
Scottish Socialist Party - IV WANDS - Interesting development here, a stable and balanced outlook - but probably nowhere near enough momentum to overtake the leading four parties.
UK Independence Party - KING OF WANDS - A sense of their own purpose but a long shot because the King of Wands generally does his own thing where advice might otherwise be taken.

I am going to go for the SNP as I do want Labour to win it - it will perhaps concentrate the Tories in England more if they do seem to be winning things back again - but have a tingling "other sense" which tells me to go with the SNP from what the tarot is saying. I've only gone for a $50 stake rather than $100 but we shall see whether my gut instinct is right on this one even when tactically I would vote Labour in this instance.

Barack's turn next.

1. Situation to begin with - QUEEN OF CUPS - "She is highly imaginative and artistically gifted, affectionate and romantic in outlook, and she creates an otherworldly atmosphere around herself. She is highly intuitive and her instincts can be trusted. She has an ethereal beauty which does not depend on external aids. She is easily influenced by events and the people she comes into contact with, and can become all things to all men. She evokes a happiness that is not dependent on earthly success."

As with John McCain, the emphasis in this campaign is an approach which takes into account the voters' perception of the candidates' images, rather than specific policy issues. Barack Obama's primary vote was predominantly young, and attracted a high turnout because of his message, hopes and aspirations, while Hillary tried to run on experience gained during her years as First Lady to Bill. Obama has matured during the course of his campaign from a rather awkward video that I saw last November to the dizzy heights of parading on the world stage even before polling day and inauguration. He enjoys the added bonus of suiting this image while it sits ill-at-ease on McCain and Palin's shoulders.

2. Obstacles - DEATH - "The enforced removal of something which should have been dispensed with voluntarily, but which is now taken. The element of chance - the apparently wilful aspect of destiny which takes without reason."

This card has come up for me before in Obama's spreads and refuses to go away. In many modern packs it speaks only of transition or transformation rather than physical termination. Using printed descriptions goes some way to ameliorating the possibility of subjective interpretation of the tarot, but this can never be fully objective, since tarot works on the basis of individual interpretation. While it would be foolish to say that Obama is unprotected and easy prey for anyone to pick off (as indeed recent events have shown, security is tight), nevertheless this element of chance removal can be interpreted in less life-threatening manners. It is difficult to predict what this means - does it mean a shock loss? does it mean that Obama had to overcome more than we thought to be nominated? - so let it stand on its own merits and we will see what this card brings with it.

3. Goals - THE HERMIT - "Indicates a need to retire from activities in order to think and plan. A warning against attempting headlong progress without careful planning to support it. Help and advice from a wise counsellor - this may be another person, or the voice of one's inner self. A need to take things slowly, seeking out the right path before proceeding further. Discretion and silence."

Obama probably wants to mature in office with the help of Joe Biden and this may describe their relationship; it also may predict that if he takes office he aspires to maturity and consideration rather than the ephemeral and emotion-driven rhetoric that has propelled him into the limelight. Concerns about his maturity compared to others in Washington shows that he must have some idea about how to be his own man, rather than just a figurehead as Owlperson believes George "Dubya" Bush Jnr. to have been in his administration.

4. Approach A - THE LOVERS - "A time of choice, the outcome of which is of crucial importance. Reliance on intuition rather than intellect is advised, on inspiration rather than reason. This card can indicate a flash of insight that resolves an apparently insoluble problem. Also a moral choice which depends on maturity and integrity for its outcome."

Obama has an image which depends on being a beacon of hope in a dark world and to bring a few of the above qualities into the office of President. Using intuition rather than reason is dangerous when it is combined with high office but it seems to have presented an alternative to current Republican directions which are blamed for the failure of the American economy and the invasion and occupation of Iraq. It attracts the rest of the world but it is a potentially naive approach which risks a lot once Obama takes office and has to govern along the lines he promised.

5. Outcome of Approach A - X PENTACLES - "Inheritance, family, wealth, blood ties. Prosperity built up through successive generations. Material security founded on the labours of one's ancestors. Can indicate good fortune regarding a will or dowry. The establishment of a family tradition."

Obama shows definite promise and the approach based on intuition and glamour could pay dividends in real terms. This is the approach which would be the best because it plays to Obama's strengths as a charismatic leader and willingness to include within his circle big hitters like Colin Powell. Obama has the chance for change but this is change of a grounded sort rather than change for change's sake like people might fear from him.

6. Approach B - TEMPERANCE - "Success is possible through the careful control of volatile factors. Indictes a situation in which circumstances and people must be skilfully combined for progress to continue. A harmonious partnership is sometimes revealed."

The alternative to approach A - within reasonable expectations for Obama's political stripe, creed and character - is to calm the message of direct change or perpetual motion and to proceed with caution and dampen down expectations. Obama enjoys the support of a broad coalition and could play it safe and more conservative as the election and probable inauguration approach.

7. Outcome of Approach B - VII WANDS - "Indicates a time of great possibility which requires the exercise of courage and determination if it is to be realised. Points to powerful competition, but victory through sustained effort. Triumph over the vicissitudes of fate through personal valour. Opposition, obstacles, adversities, but the promise that success is within reach."

The more cautious and conservative approach would still be assured of a reasonable outcome but here Obama would struggle with expectations and the possibility of living up to his manifesto promises of change. He would find it difficult to maintain a "big tent" philosophy and therefore advice to him would be to deepen his current position rather than try and build too wide a coalition or relax and let others do much of the work and merely front an administration which, like that of Dubya, was the dominant force behind the throne. Obama needs to be the one to dominate his subordinates rather than coming to rely on them for inspirtion and expertise.

8. Direction of trend - ACE OF CUPS - "The feminine, passive of gestation. The primal quiescence of the Element of Water. Nourishment, protection, the processes of creation, the faculty of feeling. Great fruitfulness is indicated, also fertility and the workings of love in the world. Can predict marriage, future motherhood, joy and plenty."

Obama will probably be the recipient of the US' collective feelings - and votes - and benefit from an out-pouring of emotion and enthusiasm. The blessings here suggest a response to a successful exploitation of the US mood and the message of hope and change, coupled with the unique opportunities Obama's candidacy presents. Support remains constant and the polls point to a comfortable victory and maybe even a landslide.

9. Outcome - KNIGHT OF CUPS - "He is enthusiastic, amiable, open to new ideas. He is a bringer of ideas, offers and opportunities. He is artistic and refined, but easily bored and in need of constant stimulation. He has high principles, but is easily led."

Concerns remain about Obama's ability to be a mature president rather than just a boy wonder. The possibilities of winning are high but so also are expectations, such that Obama makes a good candidate but needs to join some of The Hermit's gravitas and maturity to be a good President. Basing his campaign on his instincts was good but being easily led is not a good thing for the most powerful man in the world - it opens up to special interests, scheming colleagues and hollow promises left unfulfilled. Obama must mature quickly to reap the rewards of the X of Pentacles and balance and ground himself in the realities of the Presidency.

BREAKING NEWS - Jonathan Ross has been suspended for 12 weeks without pay. Half-and-half with Hubdub...!!!

On to America. John McCain may be heading for defeat, but it's not all over until the fat lady (or Sarah Palin, whoever is most available on the day) sings. I decided to look at whether he could yet pull it off, and have read for both him and Barack Obama.

I had some interesting readings for both McCain and Obama, so here is McCain's cards - while there is still a lot to play for.

1. Situation to begin with - QUEEN OF CUPS - "She is highly imaginative and artistically gifted, affectionate and romantic in outlook, and she creates an otherworldly atmosphere around herself. She is highly intuitive and her instincts can be trusted. She has an ethereal beauty which does not depend on external aids. She is easily influenced by events and the people she comes into contact with, and can become all things to all men. She evokes a happiness that is not dependent on earthly success."

McCain here is being the consummate politician, as this card also came up for Obama in this position. Both candidates are projecting an image they hope will appeal emotionally to voters and coming across as touchy-feely rather than hard or rational. McCain is defiant in Defiance (OH), and ripped up newspapers confidently declaring Obama the winner a week before America goes to the polls. Both candidates, despite the difference in their campaigns and polls, are starting from the same base and campaigning in the same underlying style, mindful of the need to appear more in tune with the voters than was previously the case.

2. Obstacles - QUEEN OF WANDS - "She is overbearing, matriarchal, unable to allow her loved ones independence of thought or action. She is vain and self-righteous, tending to take offence over imagined wrongs, and striking out at those who mean her no harm. She has a sharp tongue and a cruel wit."

This is probably Sarah Palin making her entrance - McCain thought he was getting a winning element but actually laid himself open to an ambitious and rather verbally profligate running mate who began to alienate and intimidate rather than boost McCain when he needed it most. The ill-dignified Queen of Wands in other areas suggests reactionary and over-sensitive action which leads to problems when the stakes become too high. Thus McCain's obstacle is his partner and perhaps an excessive resorting to spontaneity, which more often than not increases the likelihood of painful and dangerous gaffes.

3. Goals - EIGHT OF WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding-up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."

It is unfortunate that McCain's partner showed such lack of political nous because McCain has plans for his presidency - but to get to this goal he needed someone to keep their mouth shut and out of trouble, and she didn't do that. However, perhaps McCain shows here that grand plans don't always equal success; this card can also indicate things going quite fast but not always hitting the target in the way that pays the actual dividends of political office.

4. Approach A - THE WORLD - "The final and successful completion of any matter in hand. The summing-up of a question or series of circumstances. A culmination of events. The ending of a cycle of destiny."

McCain needed to go for gold, to sweep all before him by being the only show in town. While that was difficult to do as Barack Obama's opponent, he tried to use Sarah Palin as a foil by using her gender as a match to Obama's race. Presenting the duo as the Republican answer to the Democrat ticket and establishing themselves as a match for Obama's camp would probably have seemed a good idea at the time - so long as Palin did not use that platform as her own trial run and made sure she harmonised her goals with McCain. Establishing themselves as more experienced and competent than Obama would have reduced his advantage considerably.

5. Result of Approach A - FIVE OF PENTACLES - "Poverty, destitution, material worries, unemployment, loss of security. This card warns of severe material adversities ahead, but suggests that this enforced restriction in one area of life may open up possibilities in others. Important bonds may be formed with those in similar circumstances, and avenues still remain to be explored. The message here is 'do not despair'."

Tarot books tend now to be focussed on advice rather than concrete outcomes, but the negative quality of this card suggests that the scenario in The World would not trump the kudos afforded the first black Presidential candidate with a chance of getting elected. This is not a satisfactory approach, and although the Five of Pentacles in an advisory role counsels the need not to succumb to despair, as a prediction it is not a favourable omen, nor does it suggest the right course of action in the first place when appearing as a potential outcome to a particular strategy. It is foolish for McCain and Palin to present themselves as the date with American destiny that no doubt influenced the choice of running mate.

6. Approach B - THE CHARIOT - "Success, triumph over the obstacles life throws in one's path. Secure progress, victory achieved through personal effort, the triumph of initiative. Not success which is inherited, or the product of fortune."

McCain and Palin need to display sheer bullish ignorance of the polls and push forward defiantly in order to have any hope of beating Obama. The Chariot is reckless and unbridled as a course of action, and some decks illustrate it with two horses pulling the cart apart in their efforts to get ahead. Palin and McCain have been charged with acting at cross purposes, so this would show that this is probably true and is more descriptive than prescriptive. Nevertheless, McCain and Palin cannot do much more than push forward and try their hardest to salvage something from this; Palin particularly as a fairly young politician will be looking to establish her own constituency for the next election or the one after that, and that could lead to the horses beginning to pull in opposite directions as polls begin to solidify into actual votes.

7. Outcome of Approach B - KNIGHT OF CUPS - "He is enthusiastic, amiable, open to new ideas. He is a bringer of ideas, offers and opportunities. He is artistic and refined, but easily bored and in need of constant stimulation. He has high principles, but is easily led."

In McCain's case this increasingly illusory momentum may not convince people that he and Palin are able to govern effectively, despite their age and experience in top-flight Washington politics. The Knight is always a follower, not a leader of events, and McCain and Palin are, arguably, into a damage limitation exercise from a Republican point of view. He needs to salvage what he can, but as the best possibility here it is still runner-up that he is looking at, barring unexpected events.

8. Direction of trend - THE HANGED MAN - "The ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Flexibility of mind. Willingness to submit oneself to the dictates of the inner self and cast aside practical considerations when the time is right. Wisdom and guidance from the unconscious."

McCain and Palin are probably in suspense now until the outcome of the election is clear. They cannot let up the pace but possibly realise that the suspension in which they find themselves means that it may not be their night on November 4. They are waiting to see what will happen now, and do not have the time to try and pull it back in their favour.

9. Outcome - QUEEN OF PENTACLES - "She is sensible, down-to-earth, wise and compassionate. She is a lover of comfort, splendour, ostentation, the grand occasion and the grand manner. She is lavish in her affection and her gifts, magnanimous and forgiving. She has a responsible attitude to her wealth, and uses it to support and advance those in her domain. She is not unduly intelligent or intuitive, but has a highly developed sense of feeling. She appreciates the good things of life."

This is an interesting card, and an enigma. It might not be as bad as predicted for the Republicans, and while no-one is really banking on a Republican victory, this card indicates that the Republican team emerge from this satiated and balanced rather than broken and bruised. Although it is a zero-sum game, unlike in Britain where fluctuating polls mean fluctuating majorities or lack thereof, and Obama is predicted to win (and my sixth sense has never let me down, even when I have been on the wrong side of the game), there might be something salvageable from the Republican camp to make sure that they emerge with experience, balance and perception rather than being utterly destroyed and bereft. The Queen is also a skilled administrator, so balance and focus on the real issues of management rather than wild claims, promises and hopes is presaged for McCain and Palin.

Just joined HubDub, an interesting news forecasting site. Not in the league of tarot, but although they invite people to email them exploits for "gaming" the system, I've been using tarot cards to try and beat the system with an offline exploit of my own. Tarot is not binary - there is no "yes/no" system - but I want to try and see whether it can be used for straight prediction rather than analysis of the finer points of human activity.

 

So I thought I'd practise on Jonathan Ross, as if he has not had his fair share of discomfort over the variously-named Sachsgate or Manuelgate, where Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross made lewd comments on the answer-phone of Andrew Sachs, Manuel from Fawlty Towers, about his grand-daughter's sexual activities. I personally will make my decision based on cards, so here goes.

Yes - JUSTICE - Honourable choices. In other words, for Ross to resign would be the right thing - but is it the done thing?
No - 2 COINS - Cash flow. Probably the safest bet for your H$s, seeing as the current trading activity is at 85%.

So my vote is going to be No, because although I think he should do the right thing and take a short career break, it seems as if he is relatively safe and thus I will bet H$100 on what I believe will be the answer. Sadly H$ do not translate into real GB£, but it shows how and what you can do with a pack of tarot cards. 

Fraser Nelson writes in the Spectator today giving advice to "Gidders" on what to do now that Yachtgate is a thing of the past. Although some bloggers on Conservative Home suggest that the article will have limited readership (and thus do limited damage), the Spectator does tend to feed gossips elsewhere in the mainstream press. It may also be contended that if its limited readership extends only to its targets we might actually get somewhere again. While Russell Brand and Jonathan "Woss" might be the subject of calls for a Commons debate on the issue (?!? - have we really got nothing else to discuss?) Nelson's arguments make interesting reading for anyone who thought Osborne's troubles were largely over.

I am also road-testing Lucy Cavendish's Oracle Tarot, which promises "always a positive choice, no matter what the situation". No Devil, no Death, no bad cards - just like the Tories' preferred image.

1. Inspiration for Nelson's article - THE HIGH PRIESTESS - Inner Guidance. "You are entering a time when your intuition will be extremely accurate and sensitive. You will also be able to exercise discipline, restraint and spiritual dignity. You may seem to be a little distant and aloof during this time; however a more accurate impression is that you are listening to your higher self so intently that earthly practicalities are going unheeded at this time. You will do the right thing for all concerned - even if this is indeed the hardest choice to make."

In other words Fraser wrote the article because he had a hunch he might get through to the leadership where others have failed, and that the Tories are not basing themselves in the real world but in the future world where they are governing, not opposing. This is probably a good thing on balance - they are casting themselves as an alternative government - but Fraser feels he is able to bring them down to earth again. Although based on rational input and output, with the role of the media such as it is, politics is based largely on what feels right - look at the success of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton, even though strategy might have suggested age before beauty - rather than what is necessarily worldly. So in writing Nelson is trying to do the best he can to get through to the higher wavelength the Tories are currently on to make sure they are aware of what is going on down on Earth with the rest of us.

2. Response from Team Cameron - 8 CUPS - Contemplation. "You're in one of those existential fog zones that should come with warning signs; you're wondering what it's all about, this existence thing. Are you really just a fun ride for a piece of DNA determined to get passed on to another generation? Come on. There's a lot more to you than a random dot on life's matrix. Take yourself to bed, get a massage, read Herman Hesse - indulge this fog - until you can't stand yourself anymore. Dare I say now that you know how everyone else has been feeling? Treat them to some of your famous laughter and show them you're back."

I would rather not treat criticism with "famous laughter" but rather with serious thought, but that's just me, I'm not still odds-on favourite to be the next Prime Minister. Given that we are dealing with actual response to this article rather than just advice for Team Cameron, the image of someone in bed on this card seems somewhat peculiar when what we are seeing from a lot of different sources is that we need some action rather than just contemplation. Although a certain amount of introspection is valuable, particularly after what has gone before, perhaps three years' worth is a little excessive and needs drastic curtailment here. Nevertheless I have found the tarot provides both advice and warning - you may think you understand that the future is mutable, but as I regularly find, you ignore warnings at your own risk - because warning can turn into reality very quickly.

3. Impact of this article on the wider scene - 5 SWORDS - Challenges, problems. "While everything looks bleak at the moment, remember that everybody has times like this. So now it's your turn - well, welcome to the learning curve, my friend. This is actually quite inspiring - this is when you can start to take real control of your life. It's all too easy to feel and be marvelous when things are going well, but it's these tougher times that make you strong. Meditate, keep calm and take what action you can - bash a pillow, [or sack a party chairman caught fiddling their expenses], not other people, when you feel furious. Things are going to change - you can bet on it. The question is, will you leave this time a better person? Now, that's one question that you, and only you, can determine the answer to. In other words, it's your life - if you don't like it, work on changing it. If you can't change it, work on changing how you feel about it."

The article may be small and low-key, as well as still equivocal enough to have most people accept it as advice not excoriation, but even a positive, affirmative pack of cards (traditionally, because the pioneers of the modern tarot are mostly American, cards are sold in decks, not packs, but Owlperson is rather stuck in his British ways and insists I call it a pack not a deck) has to have a card or two for when things go wrong. The impact is still only half that needed in traditional packs to wipe out a leadership rather than just give it a kick in the right direction, but since the Brown bounce renewed itself the uphill struggle on this card has become a reverse landslide rather than the hopeful signs in the summer that DC and co could maintain their bubble and turn it into more of a shell to get them through until 2010. This is a challenge the party has to rise to, otherwise it could fall quite far and quite fast back into a rerun of 2003.

4. Direction of trend - TEMPERANCE - Balance, harmony. "The quest for balance and a certain harmony is challenging you at present: it requires a certain kind of calm, steady approach and an almost scientific method to understand the components that will help you to balance and harmonise your life. If you think creatively, and then use a well-thought-out process, you can bring seemingly opposing elements into harmony - whether its friends or relatives, or aspects of your own personality or work life. There is a way to transform your life: if you can fuse creativity and organisation, you'll create a wealth of opportunity and enjoyment in your daily existence."

Team Cameron obviously take something to heart to try and rebalance the party in the favour of people with ideas and opinions beyond their own viewpoints. Balancing out their modernising trends by taking on board criticisms of being lightweight would be good and evidently - this is descriptive not prescriptive - it begins to happen. Ken Clarke and John Redwood are posited by people on Conservative Home as an alternative Treasury team; however realistically neither of these two men have taken full Shadow Cabinet roles since the end of the 90s, Ken Clarke not at all since 1997 and Redwood preferred to stay partially on the backbenches in order to assist Michael Howard but to spend a little more time with his constituency than the average Shadow. I'm not sure whether balance means bringing back big hitters in the manner that Barack Obama chose Joe Biden as his alter-ego after similar criticisms, or whether it means incorporating some more ideas that look more like a government in waiting and less like an opposition whose only pronouncements are what they would do in the short-term.

5. Overall outcome - THE STAR - "You are entering a blessed time of new hopes and its best companion: fulfillment. You will be awash with inspiration, and the best news is that your sense that all will be more than well is not simply wishful thinking - it's the kind of wishful thinking that will materialise. You will feel more energised than you have for some time, will enjoy the magical simplicity of life: nature, the stars at night, the dew on flowers, the sweet smell of new blossoms, the musical call of birds, the beauty of an eggshell-blue sky after rain, the operatic drama of an orange and scarlet sunset. Nature will make your soul sing. This time can occur after you have been tested in some way by the Universe: allow yourself to revel in this time of rebirth and joy. Delight in life - it is as the Universe intended it to be for you."

In some packs The Star can be ephemeral - hope and optimism in abundance but still a mountain to climb. If concrete use can be made of this article, in other words, it will have the intended effect for the Party as a whole and Cameron's prospects in particular. The lazy naivete of the card description is in some way similar to the effect Barack Obama has had in the US. But another article in the Spectator asks - is that enough? The Republican Party too want to model themselves on Team Cameron after what is assumed to be a defeat, even a heavy one. But substance is always needed to bring politics down-to-earth, and Brown's gain has been significant in that the first major economic crisis of New Labour's tenure in office seems to have brought out the best in Labour, not the worst, as the party hangs in there together and improves its responsiveness to public worries. The Star is a relief somewhat - I doubt anyone wants to see yet another change of leader before 2010 - but its danger lies in the intangibility of hope and optimism in the face of the need for root-and-branch construction of a proper alternative to Labour's robust plans.