I've done this mainly because there is something going on over on Conservative Home which is utterly amazing - the Cameron supporters actually petitioning the leadership to get going with something structurally sound to halt Labour's advance back up the greasy poll. An Independent survey this morning put the Tories only 8 points ahead of Labour and below 40% for the first time in months, with this meaning that if it came to a general election tomorrow the Tories would not get an overall majority at all - falling short by 8 seats.
I asked the question - What is the relationship between David Cameron and the Conservative Party? I used a spread for the relationship between two people, and this was the result. I will post a similar reading for Gordon Brown later on, in the interests of balance, but I must say this and similar readings I've done privately is quite interesting in that the balance of power between DC and his party has shifted considerably over the last few months.
1. Current Situation for Cameron - VI SWORDS. "The solving of immediate problems, a moving away from imminent danger. Does not suggest complete success which absolves the need for further struggle, but indicates that some major obstacle has been overcome and progress can be resumed. May indicate travel away from trouble to more harmonious circumstances and surroundings."
First of all the idea for DC is that he is hoping to move on from "Yachtgate" and deal with the immediate issues. It seems all but dead now for Osborne so DC is now moving on to more policy-making and publicity-seeking, including backing calls for Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross to be sacked over the despicable Andrew Sachs stunt.
2. Current Situation for the Party - III WANDS. "The successful launching of a great venture. Original ideas finding expression. Inspiration which is being rewarded. Strength arising from enterprise and effort supported by powerful convictions. This is the card of the artist and the inventor who turns a dream into reality.
The party is initiating its own development and discussion. The III Wands suggests that a certain security has been lost and a risk has been taken with stability for the promise of greater creativity and spontaneity. The party is providing a degree of input into Cameron's project and trying to guide its leader rather than staying quiet.
3. What DC thinks about the Party - VII SWORDS. "This card advises prudence and foresight when facing powerful opposition. Although a direct confrontation would be disastrous, victory can yet be attained by seeking out the enemy's weak points and disarming him in advance. But courage and perseverance are required. Great danger is stressed but also the possibility of triumph through cunning.
The party and DC are in opposition to each other, which is suggested by the volume rising on Conservative Home - though for now it is mostly constructive criticism it tends to suggest DC is trying to move ahead despite opposition from within.
4. What the Party thinks about DC - VI WANDS. "Victory, triumph, the arrival of great news. The complete fulfilment of major hopes and wishes. Success earned by hard work and originality, satisfaction in what has been achieved. The skilful overcoming of all opposition through the use of diplomacy instead of force."
The party is getting its case across to DC and is being persuasive in its use of discussion and debate to get the leadership to listen. This is not that the party feel it is on to a winner with DC - it means it has succeeded in imposing its core view on Cameron after a passionate debate on the matter.
5. What DC is keeping from the Party - IX SWORDS. "Deception, disappointment, failure, cruelty, unreasoning passions, violence, scandal - all of which can be combatted by resignation, passive, obedience, faith and calculated inaction. This is the card of the martyr, it brings strength and new life out of suffering."
In other words, there is a deception going on - Cameron is trying to get on with his job of leading the party but it looks as if he is trying to maintain a facade of cheerfulness masking more systematic difficulties which he may have in the public arena. He is warned about being caught either with his pants down or without anything to say, and is having to deflect attention away from this lacking on his part.
6. What the Party is keeping from DC - KING OF PENTACLES. "He is of a practical down-to-earth nature; cautious; methodical; skilled in practical techniques and traditional crafts. He is loyal, trustworthy and patient. He has an inborn wisdom that enables him to achieve material success and even amass great wealth, despite his lack of imagination or intellectual deviousness. He is somewhat inarticulate, but is capable of deep thought long the lines that engage his interest. He is slow to give affection, but devoted to those he loves; he is slow to anger but implacable towards those he hates."
In other words, the party is wanting something from DC which would give him the qualities of a real leader, or they are selecting his replacement. Erring on the side of caution here, they are seeking someone who can match Brown now the economy has been running down, and who can provide a more solid outlook for the party. They are with-holding this figure, so I suspect that there might be signs of tension in the Tory camp as Labour reunites itself and begin to rediscover some of its reasons for existence.
7. Direction in the near future - II WANDS. "Strength of will bringing ideas to pass. Firm rulership resulting in peace and justice. Riches and authority attained by just means. The responsible wielding of executive powers. Courage and initiative resulting from high motives. Earned success. Wisdom attained through experience."
This points to some kind of resolution of tensions revealed above but in what shape or form I am not sure I want to predict. Cameron has historically been bad about responding to advice or events (such as Derek Conway and now Yachtgate) quickly and has taken days to reach where previous leaderships have taken hours. This is resolution of disagreements but as in cards 5. and 6. the party wants something which Cameron is having difficulty delivering, so what the resolution could be is anyone's guess.
8. Advice to David Cameron - PAGE OF WANDS. "He is ambitious and resourceful, enthusiastic and adaptable. He is a messenger who brings good tidings, stimulating news, witty gossip. He is by nature faithful and trustworthy, vigorous in the service of those in authority over him."
DC needs now to raise his game and become quicker in responding and not get caught out by unruly subordinates such as George Osborne and Caroline Spelman. He needs to be the first to say things, not weigh in later when things have passed their peak. Although the Page of Wands is an insubstantial figure, this suggests to me that DC will still try and outfox Brown rather than give a more solid footing to Tory policies. I'm not sure this is wise with Mandelson looking likely to survive his encounter with Oleg Deripaska on the Queen K, but Cameron ought to know what he is doing by now.
9. Advice to the Party - IV CUPS. "Emotional happiness and fulfilment which has passed its peak and can proceed no further. The establishment of a family. The passive enjoyment of that which has already been attained. But the card indicates a new dissatisfaction which the things of this world cannot assuage. Fulfilment having been attained, what can follow? Love is perhaps turning into familiarity."
The Tories need to assess whether they are content with Cameron or not, or else try and goad him into more pro-active responses to current issues. They are getting restless and looking for a solution to tip the balance back in their favour in order to become more direct and more resourceful. They need to tell Cameron to put up or shut up - soon.
10. Outcome of this discussion - X CUPS. "A peaceful and secure environment. The search for fulfilment is crowned with success. Perfect love and concord between people."
If DC can square a few circles and raise his game, he might reconcile the internal debates before they became external disagreements. However, I would note that the X of Cups is transient whereas its counterpart in the Pentacles is more permanent, and that this is the card I drew for Boris' success in the London mayoralty elections, so there are possibilities for short-term success but a longer-term question-mark. There is still a chance to put things together and begin to set the agenda again.
